Search found 54 matches

by Busdrvr
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Alternate to HEDGEFUNDIE's Adventure
Replies: 19
Views: 1586

Re: An Alternate to HEDGEFUNDIE's Adventure

Interesting analysis. There were many different variants discussed over those 2 threads. I am curious to see compelling advantages of your strategy, using ITT. Can you elaborate on drawdowns and sortino? Would using TMF (or EDV) be worse than ITT, while using the same 200 day SMA signals? Thanks. R...
by Busdrvr
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ESPP and RSUs
Replies: 35
Views: 2009

Re: ESPP and RSUs

The bargain element is always taxed at ordinary income rates. No matter if qualifying or disqualifying disposition. Sell asap and enjoy the free money.
by Busdrvr
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?
Replies: 10
Views: 1167

Re: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?

I used to get IBD as well, plus I have read w oneills books and like some of the rules he promotes. He advises taking profits in the 20 to 25 % range as well, depending on the time it takes to achieve that gain. Just want to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily due to normal market movement.
by Busdrvr
Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?
Replies: 10
Views: 1167

Re: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?

5?

Thats awesome!! I'd let it ride too. 5 or 6 might be too tight IMO. Looking at recent action. FWIW ive never done a trailing stop before.
by Busdrvr
Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?
Replies: 10
Views: 1167

aapl stock, trailing stop, wwyd?

Fun money in aapl is up 21% from avg price paid. ~210/ share. Where would you set a trailing stop. My thoughts are 10% below 255. TIA..
by Busdrvr
Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Employee stock purchase plan - a no-brainer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1092

Re: Employee stock purchase plan - a no-brainer?

Its what I do too. Best high interest savings account you can get. I'm starting to take proceeds from the sales to fund our bdRoths. Even using [HEDGEFUNDIES]excellent adventure part deux. Albeit using Mototrojans 43/57 upro/edv variant...:sharebeer Just make sure you don't pay the taxman twice on t...
by Busdrvr
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I see Sept. UE rate @ bls is lowest number on chart at 3.5. Which is nice!
by Busdrvr
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing
Replies: 119
Views: 12125

Re: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing

I’m just curious about what someone in this circumstance should have in term life insurance? A big # for sure. He is not living large and no mortgage. However, to reproduce the future lifestyle of his heirs, a minimum of $6M 20 year term I would imagine. That would cost about $300 per month. He sho...
by Busdrvr
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing
Replies: 119
Views: 12125

Re: High income earner waiting for a bear market to start investing

I’m just curious about what someone in this circumstance should have in term life insurance? A big # for sure.
by Busdrvr
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an indexer, but should I be buying my companies discounted stock?
Replies: 42
Views: 3231

Re: I'm an indexer, but should I be buying my companies discounted stock?

If its an espp plan with a lookback and a short holding period then its an easy decision. Just remember the irs limit is 25k/year based on 100% of the FMV so you can put ~21k of your own $ in. This would mean having a deferral rate of about 7% at your income. Any more and you are providing a free lo...
by Busdrvr
Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct
Replies: 18
Views: 2257

Re: Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct

isira wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:23 pm
I personally use SNSXX. It invests 100% directly into US Treasuries, meaning it is fully state tax exempt. At my tax bracket (24% Fed, 9.7% State), its tax equivalent yield has been higher than any other fund over the past year.

That’s what I went with.
by Busdrvr
Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct
Replies: 18
Views: 2257

Re: Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct

For my own situation: 24% Federal tax bracket, 6% state tax bracket; SALT limits the state tax deduction as to be non-existent, so effectively I pay 30% in taxes on Prime, 24% in taxes on Treasury. So after-tax equivalent on - Prime = 1.82 * (1 - 0.3) = 1.27% - Treasury = 1.60 * (1 - 0.24) = 1.28% ...
by Busdrvr
Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct
Replies: 18
Views: 2257

Where to put cash at Schwab taxable acct

Would like to earn something on the cash in my Schwab taxable acct. Currently have 12k in there as my espp program is thru Schwab. Seems like my options are: Prime(taxable) 7 day yield=1.82 Government and treasury(taxable)7 day yield =1.69 Municipal(tax exempt)7 day yield= 1.22 What do you use? Why?...
by Busdrvr
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Again I see August UE rate was 3.7 and below the MA(3.75)

Month end S&P and four of five Ivy Portfolio asset classes, exception being DBC(commodities), also remain invested and above their 10 and 12 mma’s.

Interesting action in the markets this week so far. Mfg and services looking a little anemic.
by Busdrvr
Sat Sep 21, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2287

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

I think it may depend on your company plan. Mine includes the discount amount in a pay stub at year end when shares are sold during the year. From our ESPP Q&A “ Ordinary Income is reported on your W-2 from your employer. The disposition amount required to be reported by your employer will be record...
by Busdrvr
Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best financial books for a new investor.
Replies: 15
Views: 971

Re: Best financial books for a new investor.

She won’t need the Millionaire Next Door, but John Bogles Don’t Count on It would be fantastic.
by Busdrvr
Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2287

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

Not to belabor the point, but you don't have an additional 10k to put into the espp. More like an additional 6,250 which gets you to the 25k in Fair market value of the shares. (25*.85)=21250..minus the 15k you already do. :sharebeer So your comment made me dive into the Plan Information Document p...
by Busdrvr
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2287

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

Not to belabor the point, but you don't have an additional 10k to put into the espp. More like an additional 6,250 which gets you to the 25k in Fair market value of the shares. (25*.85)=21250..minus the 15k you already do. :sharebeer
by Busdrvr
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase
Replies: 33
Views: 2287

Re: Emp Stock Purchase vs 401k increase

IIRC...The 25k annual max is based on the FMV of the shares when purchased, it is not the amount you are able to contribute. So if you have a 15% discount your annual contribution is limited to 21,250 in total. I would certainly go all in on the 401k and then add to the espp as able. I sell my share...
by Busdrvr
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

If I have it correct, July UE was 3.7 and below the avg so no further action required in your strategy. Although different from your strategy, it appears at month end asset classes from IVY portfolio’s also were above their MA’s so would remain invested regardless. I have a small taxable single stra...
by Busdrvr
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2530
Views: 466878

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Fido summary for workplace 401 says 16.41% Ytd. Was 85/15 until a month ago. Now 75/25.

Star performer continues to be PRNHX. On track for 415c limit.
by Busdrvr
Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

David Steins latest MFTROU podcast is devoted to Momentum and Trend Following.
by Busdrvr
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP Help
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: ESPP Help

Be sure to review how to handle the tax treatment of the sales. It is easy to get double taxed on the bargain element(10% or15%) if you don't adjust the basis reported on the 1099b from the broker.(rules changed and brokers are required to put misleading cost basis info on the 1099's).
by Busdrvr
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I still don't understand the value of a Backdoor Roth for high income earners
Replies: 63
Views: 6385

Re: I still don't understand the value of a Backdoor Roth for high income earners

I rolled over a large TIRA into my 401k in order to do the BDRoth, but only after I was also maxing the 401k @62k and HSA. I like that Roth could possibly be passed on to heirs and no RMD's.
by Busdrvr
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 68
Views: 12539

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I do find it interesting that currently the top 3 asset classes of the 13 that make up the papa bear portfolio, a clone of the Ivy Portfolio, are 30 yr Treasury’s, Gold, and US corporate bonds.(vclt)
by Busdrvr
Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance - Cautionary Tale
Replies: 22
Views: 2461

Re: Umbrella Insurance - Cautionary Tale

It does not take much to exceed even a 500K liability limit on the auto especially if injuries are involved. The op only says they are self funding some of the costs and my guess is that the underlying policy limits were insufficient. I’m looking at my Progressive umb renewal and excluded are crimin...
by Busdrvr
Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 30652

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Regarding this point, I believe that a lot of folks have talked past each other regarding the future state of SS. Those that say that SS will go 'bankrupt' are, in a way, accurate. Bankruptcy does not mean an absence of income; it means that the entity is not capable of meeting it's financial oblig...
by Busdrvr
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 30652

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

SSI is not going to go broke, at the most there will be some tweaking around the edges to make it sustainable when the ruling class is forced to make the changes. Regarding this point, I believe that a lot of folks have talked past each other regarding the future state of SS. Those that say that SS...
by Busdrvr
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 30652

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

SSI is not going to go broke, at the most there will be some tweaking around the edges to make it sustainable when the ruling class is forced to make the changes. Regarding this point, I believe that a lot of folks have talked past each other regarding the future state of SS. Those that say that SS...
by Busdrvr
Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 30652

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

SSI is not going to go broke, at the most there will be some tweaking around the edges to make it sustainable when the ruling class is forced to make the changes. What I wonder about is the threat(s) like a stay in a LTC facility. How many people with 1.7 are going to see that vanish into thin air o...
by Busdrvr
Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Willthrill81 I was hoping to find someone here who was doing this as I just discovered Meb Fabers’ white paper titled “A quantitative approach to tactical asset allocation” from 2006 with recent updates. After going through it several times I am strongly considering employing that approach which, f...
by Busdrvr
Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Will, perhaps I should have asked this early on. Are you running this trend following method with the idea it is fixed for all time, i.e. not to be tampered with? Or would you consider changes that might improve results? I would have to see some really convincing data to persuade me to change my st...
by Busdrvr
Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77476

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Willthrill81 I was hoping to find someone here who was doing this as I just discovered Meb Fabers’ white paper titled “A quantitative approach to tactical asset allocation” from 2006 with recent updates. After going through it several times I am strongly considering employing that approach which, fr...
by Busdrvr
Sat May 25, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 94
Views: 15141

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

You could have someone like Mark Zoril at https://planvisionmn.com/ take a look at your entire situation for a $96 annual fee and he doesn’t have anything to sell you other than his expertise/advice. This may alleviate some of the reticence of going it alone. You can learn all you need about Mark by...
by Busdrvr
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1336

Re: Backdoor Roth worth it?

Minor point, but 2019 415c limit plus CU = 62k :sharebeer
by Busdrvr
Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 Backdoor Timing
Replies: 2
Views: 284

2018 Backdoor Timing

This week I was able to roll in to my workplace 401k my VG rollover tIRA(100% pretax). I have no other tIRA's and wish to contribute new money to a non deductible tIRA which I will then convert to a Roth. Does it matter at this point when I contribute and convert the new money for 2018? Is it cleane...
by Busdrvr
Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 370
Views: 45014

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I think my E fund is a lttle fat. Waiting, patiently.
by Busdrvr
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 8001

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

Kitces 2009 report "To Roth, or Not to Roth" while somewhat outdated(tax rates) is instructive. https://www.kitces.com/to-roth-or-not-to-roth-may-2009-issue-of-the-kitces-report/ In the example he gives, a retiring couple with 5M total( 2M IRA and a 3M Taxable acct)will pay ~52k in taxes on 336k in ...
by Busdrvr
Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle
Replies: 32
Views: 3045

Re: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle

Doctors have to be smart, right?

Smart people must make for smart investors, right?

Here's a couple of Docs that made it onto the pages of the Wall Street Journal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424 ... 2458161986
by Busdrvr
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convert TIRA to Roth, nondeductible
Replies: 19
Views: 1263

Re: Convert TIRA to Roth, nondeductible

Fed plus state =30% rate. Only I max out pre tax in fido 401 and considered backdoors to get some Roth $. Current Roth =0. Have tIRA's to deal with (convert some, roll others) before any BD roth would work. But maybe taxable here is better at current tax rates. Dealing with the tIRAs, preferably by...
by Busdrvr
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convert TIRA to Roth, nondeductible
Replies: 19
Views: 1263

Re: Convert TIRA to Roth, nondeductible

David Grabiner said "It's not quite that simple. The IRA is 1/3 non-deductible, so the tax would be 22% of the value. If you wait, the IRA is likely to grow, which will decrease the non-deductible fraction, so you will pay tax at a lower rate but on a higher fraction of the value. So what matters is...
by Busdrvr
Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Re: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts

Well a game changer of sorts. It appears my employer 401k at FI actually allows for mega backdoor roths so that would appear to be the winner. Better yet, to the extent my after tax contributions will crowd out some of the company contribution above the limit, I am entitled to receive those dollars...
by Busdrvr
Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Capital Target Allocation Tool - should I follow it?
Replies: 18
Views: 2053

Re: Personal Capital Target Allocation Tool - should I follow it?

The PC guy has set up the second annual meeting (phone patch)with me in order to get at my Rollover IRA's ansd spouses old 401k(not rolled over). Total assets are roughly 300k. Last year I said thanks, but no thanks. Problem is, and I've told him this, that in order for us to do backdoor roths we ha...
by Busdrvr
Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for My First Recession?
Replies: 63
Views: 8180

Re: Preparing for My First Recession?

I bookmarked this wsj article from 2013 because it illustrates such a powerful lesson. DO NOT DO THIS "When stock prices collapsed in 2008, the bear market wiped out half of the savings of L W and her husband, both doctors in Houston. Feeling "sucker punched," she says, they swore off stocks and put...
by Busdrvr
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Re: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts

Well a game changer of sorts. It appears my employer 401k at FI actually allows for mega backdoor roths so that would appear to be the winner. Better yet, to the extent my after tax contributions will crowd out some of the company contribution above the limit, I am entitled to receive those dollars ...
by Busdrvr
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Re: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts

Thank you Celia, that all makes sense. I hate letting tax uncertainty prevent me from action, which seems like what has held me back til now. I'm conflicted about rolling my tIRA into a non VG plan so maybe your ideas make the most sense at this point..
by Busdrvr
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on establishing Roth accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Need advice on establishing Roth accounts

Particulars... 12 years to retirement. No current Roths 3 kids in college 1 earner married filing joint, top end of 24% fed and 6% state, may be in 32% fed in near future. Both have 401k(1 inactive), my plan is at FI with brokeragelink available and will max 415c limit (50+)going forward, I hope. Ro...
by Busdrvr
Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles
Replies: 7
Views: 1082

Re: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles

All good points. What is suprising is the magnitude of the difference in returns. 20,468% for the mfp investor and 4,408% for buy and hold (djia). That seems outrageous considering mfp is only invested 1/2 of the time. Also I think the 2012 revisit is partially due to looking at djia vs s&p 500 inde...
by Busdrvr
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles
Replies: 7
Views: 1082

Investing in stocks around presidential cycles

A while back I posted a question and a couple of links here detailing two studies by Pepperdine's school of business on investing strategies using the presidential election cycles. The studies, readily available on the web, compared the results of 3 strategies applied from 1952 through 2012. Two of ...