Search found 666 matches

by UpsetRaptor
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Beyond 403bs Options?
Replies: 89
Views: 2828

Re: Investing Beyond 403bs Options?

If you'll have two pensions, plus SS, and have been maxing out two pre-tax 403(b) plans, you may be setting yourself up for some rough RMDs. I'd consider trying to do as much Roth as you can, wherever you can find some Roth space: Backdoor Roth IRA, find out if any of your 403b/457 has a Roth optio...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Beyond 403bs Options?
Replies: 89
Views: 2828

Re: Investing Beyond 403bs Options?

If you'll have two pensions, plus SS, and have been maxing out two pre-tax 403(b) plans, you may be setting yourself up for some rough RMDs. I'd consider trying to do as much Roth as you can, wherever you can find some Roth space: Backdoor Roth IRA, find out if any of your 403b/457 has a Roth option...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need 529 advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1181

Re: Need 529 advice

For an AA comparison benchmark, you can look at the various age-graded Vanguard 529 funds: https://investor.vanguard.com/529-plan/age-based-options The "moderate" plan has a 14-yr old at 30:70 and the "aggressive" plan at 50:50. Both are 0-10% equities when college starts. Do you get a state tax ben...
by UpsetRaptor
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 529 account setup
Replies: 4
Views: 383

Re: 529 account setup

Another option is to, as time goes on, create new accounts for each beneficiary every so often, and start funding those. So the oldest accounts get pulled for QEE first because they have the highest proportion of gains. The newest accounts are pulled last because they have the lowest gains, limiting...
by UpsetRaptor
Sat Sep 19, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are deleted videos on Iphone really deleted?
Replies: 17
Views: 2033

Re: Are deleted videos on Iphone really deleted?

It's like a regular PC drive, when you delete a file from iPhone through the regular process the OS marks the storage space as unused but doesn't actually scrub the bits, without an alternate method. So certain tools, like those available to law enforcement, can copy the bits of the hard drive and f...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what percent of retirement should be invested in tax deferred vs tax free accounts?
Replies: 39
Views: 3155

Re: what percent of retirement should be invested in tax deferred vs tax free accounts?

Can I think of tax defered and tax free accounts (ie Roth) as the same around my retirement age? Should my retirement accoutns be maxed out regardless every year 1) or should i tend to invest that money more towards tax defered (ie roth 401k instead of 401k) as I get older and closer to retirmeent?...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I need help in selecting a bond fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1868

Re: vanguard total bond market index.... VBTLX

Bonds don't generally move inversely to stocks, even long term treasuries don't have a perfect negative correlation with equities. The point of bonds is to reduce overall portfolio volatility, smooth out spikes in the curve.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10436

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

lol, Robot Monster is on fire this morning! :D
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10436

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Do you know how much of this 2%/year outperformance of US since 1900 is contributed by 2008-2020? Almost all of it. This is not true. Outperformance was 2% in the 20th century itself. So you are taking the biggest bubble moment in US history as your endpoint? Right before the lost decade? How conve...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10436

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Stef wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:01 pm Do you know how much of this 2%/year outperformance of US since 1900 is contributed by 2008-2020? Almost all of it.
This is not true. Outperformance was 2% in the 20th century itself.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10436

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10436

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy.
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are your 529 Contributions
Replies: 133
Views: 7332

Re: How much are your 529 Contributions

If your family is eligible for the American Opportunity Tax Credit, then that is a better deal than 529 plan: Pay $4,000 a year and get $2,500 a year back. You cannot use 529 funds to do that, but need to use taxable income for the $4,000 . That's like a 2500 / 4000 = 62.5% return on your money in ...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are your 529 Contributions
Replies: 133
Views: 7332

Re: How much are your 529 Contributions

but you can take out the amount of the scholarships without penalty with no time limit. So one can wait til in a lower tax bracket to pull it out, even if many years later. This part is likely untrue. See other discussion here https://ttlc.intuit.com/community/college-education/discussion/529-plan-...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed

Thanks pshonore, that's helpful. Looking through it, I believe people should generally use pre-tax funds given the choice. A tax delayed is a tax saved. Yes/no? Not quite, I think. If one has maxed out tax deferral opportunities (401k, 403b, 457b, FSA), the question of which funds to use to pay for...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 551
Views: 55177

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

pwill112 wrote: Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:58 am So if I put 100k in PSLDX on day one what will my underlying asset allocation look like?

I will have some stocks
I will have some bonds
I will have a negative cash balance?
Yep.
100K
100K
-100K
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6546

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

In the 20th century the US outperformed ex-US by 2%, according to the Dimson-Marsh data. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. It has actually outperformed for centuries. That's interesting. Can you call up a comparison of VTSMX vs VGTSX from, say, 1789 to present so we can visual...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6546

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

US outperformance goes far beyond the last couple decades, despite the "recency bias" fallacy often thrown about. In the 20th century the US outperformed ex-US by 2%, according to the Dimson-Marsh data. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. It has actually outperformed for centurie...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8105

Re: Why does everyone think the market is over-inflated?

It's possible that CAPE and general equity valuations are on a gradual upward trend over time, as opposed to a flat constant, as societies and economies evolve and stabilize. This is of course not really knowable, just a hypothesis. Bernstein wrote about it somewhat here: https://larrysiegeldotorg.f...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6546

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Morningstar has a timely article on exactly this his topic. The entire article is well written with lots of excellent data and graphs, but I think the key take away is this: While the U.S. market has clearly benefited from both trends, a deeper analysis reveals that differences in sector compositio...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed

Thanks pshonore, that's helpful. Looking through it, I believe people should generally use pre-tax funds given the choice. A tax delayed is a tax saved. Yes/no? Not quite, I think. If one has maxed out tax deferral opportunities (401k, 403b, 457b, FSA), the question of which funds to use to pay for...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Contribution - At Once or Over Year
Replies: 13
Views: 968

Re: Roth IRA Contribution - At Once or Over Year

Lump sum beats DCA 75% of the time. So I always lump sum, because I like being right 75% of the time.
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed

Thanks pshonore, that's helpful.

Looking through it, I believe people should generally use pre-tax funds given the choice. A tax delayed is a tax saved.

Yes/no?
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6546

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Thanks, out of interest how did you come across that Barclays CAPE link? I wasn't aware of that resource. +1, those CAPE links are interesting. I knew Japan's CAPE hit 90 in 1989 but didn't know it went back up into that stratosphere for the 2000-aughts. That Japan historical chart can almost give ...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: Teacher Retirement Service Purchase Option Analysis Needed

The other consideration is whether to pay for the additional service credit using a defined contribution account like a 403(b). If you do, the additional pension income will be taxable. If you use non-retirement funds, the extra income won't be taxable. The problem for teachers, especially in two i...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Service Purchase early in Career
Replies: 35
Views: 1609

Re: Service Purchase early in Career - ASRS

3788-2134 = 1654 1654*12 = 19848 19848/.04 = 496200 2.718^(ln(496200/86212)/17.5)-1=10.52 10.52% as a real return is good. I'm worried about the weight this would have in the future when you're thinking about putting up with bad political appointee managers though. Another note--if you do it, think...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to invest 1% of NW into high risk/high reward. QQQ? VGT? IGM?
Replies: 20
Views: 1378

Re: Looking to invest 1% of NW into high risk/high reward. QQQ? VGT? IGM?

OP, have you read the hedgefundie's excellent adventure thread?
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To Join a Gym or Not After 70? Type of Gym? Are Fitness Goals Achievable?
Replies: 70
Views: 4229

Re: To Join a Gym or Not After 70? Type of Gym? Are Fitness Goals Achievable?

It’s more important than ever to exercise as you age. If a 30 year old increases their bench or decreases their mile time, it’s not going to affect their quality of life much, if at all. For the elderly, exercise can do things like keep their mind, driving ability, and ambulatory ability last longer.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8835
Views: 698364

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Go go gadget stonks! Can you imagine what the market would do if we had a good economy? If the economy was good, interest rates would higher, which would exert downward pressure on stocks. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the upward movement we've seen is due in no small part to interest rates b...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford to intentionally go backward in compensation?
Replies: 67
Views: 4982

Re: Can I afford to intentionally go backward in compensation?

- Net worth of 2M at 35.
- Your new job would still cover expenses plus $50K savings per year.
- Wife makes $200-300K on top of that.

Of course you can.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 13983

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Omg. This is exhausting. Is it a bad idea to buy VTSAX? Yes or no? Because the answer is no, you are being cute. That's all. It’s a bad idea to buy ONLY VTSAX. Some people don’t know it’s a bad idea. Some people do it because of peer pressure and convince themselves it’s not a bad idea. Some people...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips hyperinflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 2953

Re: Tips hyperinflation?

Don't fear the boogeyman OP. The Fed's tools may be crude, but they can be effective enough. If they had to raise rates to ward off hyperinflation they would, and there's no reasonable reason they couldn't continue doing so until effective. And right now we're at the completely opposite side of the ...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweight in International?
Replies: 23
Views: 1841

Re: Overweight in International?

You didn't ask, but you may also want to consider eliminating the individual stocks in your taxable. Go to www.portfoliovisualizer.com and compare EXC to a S&P500 benchmark over the last 10 years (this will include dividends). Someone your age with your assets doesn't need individual stock risk. Ju...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 13983

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Am I reading this right? Are some posters trashing Taylor Larimore on the Boglehead Forum? Give me a break! You may disagree with some of his views but we usually treat Taylor with sensitivity and respect for the numerous services he has performed for many members of this forum- including me. Maybe...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 13983

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Investors were also warned, by none other than Jack Bogle, about valuations prior to the dot com crash. Should they have taken some action in regard to that warning? Mr. Bogle was not nearly as dogmatic as many here with regard to the BH principles. For him, they were much more akin to 'strong guid...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 594

Re: Asset Allocation

Both options are totally fine. Simple, low cost, diverse, and sounds like you understand your situation and risk tolerance. Congratulations on your situation.
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overweight in International?
Replies: 23
Views: 1841

Re: Overweight in International?

1) Yep, consolidating those bond funds into one would be simpler and advisable. That'd also give you a more neutral duration spread (for better or worse, depending on how things play out in the coming years), as you currently have more weight on the shorter duration end right now in there. 2) Yes, R...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8835
Views: 698364

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

U.S. tech stocks are now worth more than the entire European stock market https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech-stocks-are-now-worth-more-than-the-entire-european-stock-market.html US stocks aren't just soaring. They are taking over the world. I encountered the below claim recently. Can it possib...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are International Stocks worth it?
Replies: 44
Views: 2694

Re: Are International Stocks worth it?

Serious question: What are you going to do when the international index outperforms the US index for a few years to a decade or more? It happened before, but this out-performance of ex-US during limited time periods was dwarfed in comparison with its under-performance at other times. A 2%/year unde...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 29373

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

The bear threads always end up wrong eventually. It’s just a matter of time. The market makes new highs sometimes but never makes new lows. Your statement, although clever, is not actually insightful. Stocks could lose 99% and not reach a new low. That would still be catastrophic for stock investor...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 29373

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

The bear threads always end up wrong eventually. It’s just a matter of time. The market makes new highs sometimes but never makes new lows.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 551
Views: 55177

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Small-to-moderate inflation over a few years, like what it would take to haul the average up to 2%, I'm not concerned about. The bond component might drag returns down some, but I'm not expecting PSLDX to perform like it has the last decade anyways. It's large, unexpected inflation that's the boogey...
by UpsetRaptor
Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Plea for Ordinary English
Replies: 128
Views: 9701

Re: A Plea for Ordinary English

Texting killed the written language. I was watching a podcast recently where a noted English professor stated that texting is an improvement on written speech. Anything that shortens a conversation and is completely understandable is an improvement. Personally I'm not a fan of texting/twitter slang...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Riding the Tech Bubble
Replies: 20
Views: 2418

Re: Riding the Tech Bubble

Don't put in too large a % of your portfolio Opie. Just some play money.
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 14086

Re: Tilting to International

It has been documented at 2% annually since 1900 in prior threads with data and graphs on this subject. Sorry, don't have a link for you at my finger tips. Correct, and it's from the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook. That compounds to a tremendous difference over such a long period....
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 14086

Re: Tilting to International

+1 I would like to see that 100 year underperformance data too. If evidence is conclusive and verifiable I may actually tilt more towards US. The Dimson Marsh data (google it, or search for it here, it's mentioned in many of our international threads) has US equity performance of 6.5% real in the 1...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are emergency funds for suckers?
Replies: 202
Views: 15709

Re: Are emergency funds for suckers?

This comes up frequently. Here's another similar thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=311324 I'm of similar mindset. It doesn't make much sense for a young accumulator in their 20s to stick their first 50-100K of savings into cash to hold forever. I guess that's the super safest ...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your asset allocation and what future % returns are you expecting?
Replies: 91
Views: 6012

Re: What is your asset allocation and what future % returns are you expecting?

100/40 , expecting 6% real over next decade or so, something like 5% from stocks and an extra 1% from the bonds. Would be happy to be pleasantly surprised, like the last decade. Extended out to 30 years, my expectations would be higher, but I will not have the same AA in 20-30 years. Are you using ...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your asset allocation and what future % returns are you expecting?
Replies: 91
Views: 6012

Re: What is your asset allocation and what future % returns are you expecting?

100/40, expecting 6% real over next decade or so, something like 5% from stocks and an extra 1% from the bonds. Would be happy to be pleasantly surprised, like the last decade. Extended out to 30 years, my expectations would be higher, but I will not have the same AA in 20-30 years.
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 14086

Re: Tilting to International

Some are 100% US, some are global cap, and some overweight ex-US. Many are very adamant that their choice is "right", which is of course nonsense. The best choice for you personally is the allocation you're comfortable with and can stick to in the long run. They're all very diverse, good enough.