Search found 562 matches

by UpsetRaptor
Tue May 26, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18802
Views: 2628451

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So to be clear, you currently are holding no equities and will not buy any equities until we break below 1,800 on the S&P? That's correct. I am all cash except my 401k which I never touch -- and that's a simple target-dated fund. I went to all cash in the last days of January after being convinced ...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue May 26, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5625
Views: 481580

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Right now: Bears befuddled.

Some point in the future: A vaccine is approved, the market yawns, bulls befuddled.

Any point in time: Buy-and-holders just go about their day.
by UpsetRaptor
Mon May 25, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 4839

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

If a country loses a major war, it’s stock market can take a major hit and even go to zero. An investment in Germany or Japan with any start date and an ending date of 1945 resulted in a complete wipeout. So if you search history you can find a number of instances beyond 80s Japan with negative resu...
by UpsetRaptor
Sun May 24, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 4839

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Everyone talks about Japan's downturn, but few mention the crazy run-up. Japan had CAGR > 20% over forty years heading into the 90s, and as willthrill mentioned, CAPE hit 94(!) in 1989. Ludicrous speed, go. It's certainly possible that some factors - demographics, birth rates, sociopolitical trends,...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri May 22, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 146
Views: 9093

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

> US has outperformed, in aggregate, exUS for the past century+ So ex-US is still too expensive? Why isnt all that historical/political data priced in? Was it fully, 100% completely priced in in 2000? 1900? 1800? Is there some number of years decades centuries of US outperformance where an individu...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue May 19, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40704

Re: Why international?

It's not accurate to assume lower price = higher risk = higher expected return.

Using that logic, currently cheap stock sectors like apparel retailers, bookstores, and newspapers would be expected to have a higher return than currently expensive stocks like FAANGM.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue May 19, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total world vs total us + international
Replies: 23
Views: 1316

Re: Total world vs total us + international

Total world is of course simpler, but in taxable I'd hold them separate for tax loss harvesting purposes.
by UpsetRaptor
Mon May 18, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40704

Re: Why international?

The reason international is priced lower is simple: the market expects lower growth from it. If the market's weighted expectations for extra future growth from the US is exceeded, the US will outperform. If the market's weighted expectations for extra future growth from the US turns out too low, the...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon May 18, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40704

Re: Why international?

The necessity of finding additional equity diversification beyond Total US market - Five eyes, emerging, total international, whatever - is to me a solution in search of a problem. VTI covers basically all industries, with business across the globe. OK, it doesn't get everything , but the last thing...
by UpsetRaptor
Sun May 17, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 146
Views: 9093

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

International has done poorly in recent years compared to the US. There is no guarantee that will continue. And, if you are going to check performance, 10 years is too short a time period. 40 years would be better - get you back to 1980, near the beginning of the personal computer and near the star...
by UpsetRaptor
Sun May 17, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening- question about where to mulch, and also about harvesting
Replies: 17
Views: 1037

Re: Gardening- question about where to mulch, and also about harvesting

The best way to inhibit the mint is to nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
by UpsetRaptor
Fri May 15, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing!
Replies: 36
Views: 2464

Re: Stop me from market timing!

OP, There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri May 15, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing!
Replies: 36
Views: 2464

Re: Stop me from market timing!

OP, There's over 100 vaccines currently in some stage of development, with 8 already in either Phase 1 or 2 human trials. Even if it's unlikely we'll see a fully tested/approved vaccine in widespread use in CY2020, it's quite likely we'll at least be getting some positive news tidbits on this front ...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue May 12, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: COVID - 19 things to do
Replies: 51
Views: 4117

Re: COVID - 19 things to do

I just realized my kids have never seen Back to the Future or Princess Bride, and it's been a couple years since they've seen ET. Time for some movie nights!
by UpsetRaptor
Fri May 01, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8990

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

When analyzing one's portfolio, it may be worth mentioning that anyone that has a US equity tilt effectively has a growth tilt, and anyone that has an ex-US tilt effectively has a value tilt.
by UpsetRaptor
Fri May 01, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1476
Views: 136605

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I would like to see the rates available to me but it seems like everyone wants you to apply before they tell you their rates, when I know darn well that 98% of places don't have a competitive rate right now. Is there anywhere other than Northpointe that is competitive, and showing their rates for w...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really better to lump sum now rather than wait for the next correction?
Replies: 27
Views: 2297

Re: Is it really better to lump sum now rather than wait for the next correction?

About 2/3 of the time, the answer to this question is Yes.

Edit: Apologies, I'm wrong. Roughly 2/3 of the time, lump sum beats dollar-cost-averaging. The percentage of time that lump sum beats "waiting to try to time somewhere close to the bottom of the next downturn" is going to be much higher.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12661

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

It appears as if we all are desensitized to the reality of what took place in December 2018. It was a different time with respect to fed AND congress stimulus. Does anyone sincerely believe that interest rates can ever be hiked to that point or higher to shrink the balance sheet in the future? I ca...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12661

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

During most recessions, there's a larger uncertainty factor regarding the duration and long-term effects of the economic issues. For example, in the GFC, it felt like the whole financial system would come crumbling down, with who-knows-what type of repercussions from there. This time around there's ...
by UpsetRaptor
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1476
Views: 136605

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

My servicer said they're extending rate locks without a fee right now. They had to bump our's up from a 45 to a 60 day. We just closed on a 30yr for 3.0%, locked in early March. Appraisal waived, no cost. Lender was NASB, found through Zillow. A possible pointer, it didn't show up on Zillow's defaul...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6175

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

We just had a 35% stock market drop, and 12 years ago had a 50% drop, even with major Fed action on both. Even if an 80 or 90% drop is off the table, equities are still nowhere near the risk levels of things like high rated government bonds. I'm trying to parse your comment. Are you saying Treasuri...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6175

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

We just had a 35% stock market drop, and 12 years ago had a 50% drop, even with major Fed action on both. Even if an 80 or 90% drop is off the table, equities are still nowhere near the risk levels of things like high rated government bonds.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72300

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Apologies if this is a re-post, but I came across a great image depicting social distancing and death rates in US cities during the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. You can clearly see which cities re-opened everything up too soon. The article's worth a read too. https://i.imgur.com/R7pQliT.jpg Source: ht...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11385

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

I joined the boat recently. Held some bonds awaiting how I'd feel/react during my first scary downturn, and it turned out my stomach felt nothing other than a desire for dry powder. I'm actually >100:0 now. We're young, dual stable incomes (one of which is a tenured government position), good saving...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 4890

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

I was a heavy regular on one of the most popular fitness forums for about 8 years. The "best" exercises are the ones that you enjoy enough to perform consistently over time. Walking ~10 mi per week plus lifting weights 3x per week is fine, in conjunction with a good diet and ensuring you're maintain...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince me - for or against bigger home
Replies: 92
Views: 5454

Re: Convince me - for or against bigger home

I’m probably in the minority on this board of thrifty people (didn’t read other replies) but you need more space. Do it, and you won’t regret it. Financially, you’re doing fine.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4457

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

The overused "market timing" accusation sometimes seems like this board's version of McCarthyism's "Communist" slander or 17th Century "witch" accusations. I've seen Bogle himself accused of being a "market timer", due to US preference and some moves he made in the tech bubble. Yet many experienced ...
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Coming Baby Boom?
Replies: 48
Views: 2026

Re: Will there be a baby boom in 8 to 10 months?

If there's a baby boom in 9 months, it will consist entirely of firstborn children.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5625
Views: 481580

Re: New Bull Market!

S&P now in a bull market too.

Actually, S&P is back to where it was at only ~10 months ago in early June 2019. Which just seems...weird.
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you maximize enjoyment after achieving FI?
Replies: 161
Views: 8456

Re: How do you maximize enjoyment after achieving FI?

+1 for kids. Think to when you're elderly and in a retirement home, getting family visits where you get to play with grandkids.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another tax loss harvesting question: selling VTSAX to buy both VFIAX and VEXAX
Replies: 3
Views: 266

Re: Yet another tax loss harvesting question: selling VTSAX to buy both VFIAX and VEXAX

Yes, by the assessment of most individuals that avoids wash sale rules (the IRS has never clarified the matter). I'd just use one, VFIAX, and be done. Simplicity. VTSAX vs VFIAX returns are basically the same:

Image

Source: portfoliovisualizer.com
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296712

Re: Coronavirus and the market

So with the new ways of dealing with downmarket from Fed/Govt of pumping trillions of dollars into the economy every time it crashes, are the days of the market going down -50% type of planning gone? In that case, I don't think I will see > -50% down market in my lifetime then (Index funds and not ...
by UpsetRaptor
Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5625
Views: 481580

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Has no one noticed prior weekend SARS-2 stats have also been low? Could it be some labs aren't open on weekends LOL. I noticed that too. Today new case numbers in Italy and Spain were good and Germany was great, but they have all been dipping on the weekends/Sundays then go back up a little. Overal...
by UpsetRaptor
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of or into increasing international equity allocation
Replies: 61
Views: 3209

Re: Talk me out of or into increasing international equity allocation

My answer is admittedly very anti-bogleish and is pretty much basically straight stock-picking, but IMHO the FAANGs + MSFT are just about the best positioned companies worldwide I can think of in a post-COVID19 society that's generally more socially careful and overall more virtualized. There's zero...
by UpsetRaptor
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9513

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:16 pm
Ambitious994 wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:47 pm
I wanted to get you guys' opinion on this.
There is a lot of garbage advice on the forums.

Read the wiki.

It's more balanced.
+1
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?
Replies: 114
Views: 6261

Re: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?

My gym initially froze all membership fee charges automatically. Then they opened up some virtual exercise classes on their website, and re-instated the charges. You can opt out, which I did. I don't use the virtual classes.

None of this is anybody's fault, either the gym owner's or the member's.
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

. . . for those of us over the optimal hill who only have a decade or two or three :shock: left to realize the benefits of adding international stocks and bonds now, should those benefits even come? Put aside "personal preferences or values" favoring US stocks & bonds and looking only at the portfo...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Is absolutely true, and why these threads always blow up. I mean... Not so fast: there is undoubtedly a large but quiet group of Bogleheads who take the moderate and (IMHO) reasonable position of "US stocks are good enough for me, and I just don't feel comfortable with international stocks in my po...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Exactly, I'm not sure what vineviz is even arguing for anymore. Vineviz, with your uber-wisdom, what do you propose everyone does WRT international equities? Oh, I'm sure he or she would argue for global market cap. Which is totally fine. But this: The difference in these threads.... US only folks....
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

We both know that no one knows the future. And the comment I was responding to was about the past. The past two weeks to be exact! Remember, though, if you are a true believer in US-only portfolios that not ALL past periods matter. Just the ones in which US outperformed ex-US. The majority of past ...
by UpsetRaptor
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Superior international returns have happened over the last two weeks. From March 18, 2020 through April 1, 2020: Two weeks? I don't think the case for international performance is bolstered by their proponents highlighting two week periods of time where international outperforms US-only. Thank good...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

For all the gnashing, just about any answer is actually fine. 100% US is fine, global cap is fine, 50/50 is fine. It's just about diversification level, and in reality, they all have enough. I'm a 100% US guy, but I'm not trying to cram that down anyone's throat. I'm just smiling along with my supe...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

So, no one knows, right? It's just as wrong to cram international down folks' throat like they HAVE TO have it. To each their own. +1 For all the gnashing, just about any answer is actually fine. 100% US is fine, global cap is fine, 50/50 is fine. It's just about diversification level, and in reali...
by UpsetRaptor
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 18954

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

The trillion dollar question is how temporary vs long-term this is. A few months from now, are the vast majority of the currently shuttered businesses and their employees mostly right back at it, or not? Seems like the market is currently expecting the coming pain to be mostly temporary.
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Cost
Replies: 17
Views: 1331

Re: College Cost

OP didn't state the relationship though. The student is my nephew. So I am his uncle. Then 2cents2 is right, if you use your 529 funds to pay for the tuition, it'll count as student income that year and quite possibly adversely affect the financial aid calculations on FAFSA in later years, assuming...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Cost
Replies: 17
Views: 1331

Re: College Cost

Worst case scenario, I will pay the family contribution for the student (had setup a 529 plan setup for the kid 12+ year ago for this eventuality) or loan the money at 0% (if student insists on paying it back after getting a job). If you use the 529 plan money, it will impact financial aid for the ...
by UpsetRaptor
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wait a bit for TLH?
Replies: 10
Views: 835

Re: Wait a bit for TLH?

No reason to wait. Just do it now, and if the market does happen to drop again then just do it again then.
by UpsetRaptor
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating VTSAX
Replies: 7
Views: 805

Re: Approximating VTSAX

Yes, you're making it more complicated that it needs to be. Research VFINX (Vanguard S&P 500 Index tracker) vs VTSAX (total market) for some historical return period on any tracking website like portfoliovisualizer.com. It's the same return.

VINIX and done. Lowest expense ratio too.
by UpsetRaptor
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are you going to use your stimulus money?
Replies: 222
Views: 12676

Re: How are you going to use your stimulus money?

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:33 pm
Eat the rich! Oh, wait.
There's only one thing that they're good for.
Atilla wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:24 pm
Not getting any. So to y'all who are I say "you're welcome". :annoyed
And thank you!