Search found 520 matches

by betablocker
Tue Apr 04, 2023 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bob Elliott on Simple Investment Gameplan
Replies: 3
Views: 881

Re: Bob Elliott on Simple Investment Gameplan

The answer to the first two questions is yes. No on 3 and I don’t know about 4. I’m not actually implementing it. I’m just curious about learning more. It does seem somewhat similar to the Trinity portfolio. Finally, I believe that Bridgewater (where Bob was CIO) has consistently outperformed over several decades. In fact many managers can outperform they just usually don’t when fees and taxes are taken into account and ETFs tend to help on those two issues.
by betablocker
Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bob Elliott on Simple Investment Gameplan
Replies: 3
Views: 881

Bob Elliott on Simple Investment Gameplan

Bob Elliott of unlimited funds and former CIO at Bridgewater is out with a really interesting piece on his blog called A Simple Investment Gameplan. He's making the case for shifting the 60/40 to a mix of trend, risk parity, cash, inflation targeted, and what he calls diversified alpha which is his new ETF that tracks what hedge funds are doing. Seems a bit similar to Meb Faber's Trinity Portfolio. I know the typical boglehead objections but for anyone traffics in this kind of stuff, I'd be interested in thoughts and comparables. https://blog.unlimitedfunds.com/a-simple-investment-gameplan?utm_campaign=Unlimited&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=252929090&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_kHM6mp69iFEtMWxXwxn-ASa0Pw7AEk0ooe_W3Ue5943epYEUFqKK49frgH60ikH9WEaSh...
by betablocker
Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of (or maybe not?) just dumping all my money into CDs/Treasuries
Replies: 34
Views: 5991

Re: Talk me out of (or maybe not?) just dumping all my money into CDs/Treasuries

I’d have to say, given the outlook on stocks, 5% in treasuries sounds good to me. I don’t think I’d sell all your stocks or anything but a tilt to short term Treasuries seems prudent. I’d want to stay out of CDs. If there’s a big crash in stocks, you want to be liquid.
by betablocker
Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Replies: 1286
Views: 129448

Re: Debt Ceiling and Treasury Bonds and MMFs

I wouldn’t worry too much. The Treasury can take lots of “extraordinary” measures to keep everything running. So they will continue to pay interest and issue new Treasuries. In fact they had a record auction of 20 year Treasuries the other day. The estimate is that those measures would be tapped out by summer. If the default happened it would be up to Treasury to figure out which payments to prioritize. But let me just prognosticate. It won’t happen. The entire system will be aligned against 5-10 house members and there are other measures like the discharge petition that will probably force a vote that should pass easily. Just ignore the headlines. We’ve been here before and this too shall pass.
by betablocker
Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is It Too Late to Add Inflation Protection to Your Portfolio?
Replies: 156
Views: 14831

Re: Is It Too Late to Add Inflation Protection to Your Portfolio?

This is the title of a Morningstar article , written by Christine Benz in July 2022. I would like to add more protection against future unexpected inflation into my portfolio in the form of inflation-linked bonds. This article made me question whether it's too late to add inflation protection to my portfolio, but I have a difficult time understanding what is being said. Here's a short excerpt: Ideally, investors would maintain inflation protection on an ongoing, strategic basis, rather than attempting to add it after inflation has already reared its head and boosted the prices of inflation protection in the process. ... But what about investors who don’t already have such exposure in their portfolios? Is it too late to add it now in an eff...
by betablocker
Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will need cash in 6 month - how to approach rebalancing?
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: Will need cash in 6 month - how to approach rebalancing?

I have a portfolio with total stock/bonds ETFs and couple of individual stocks that's not been rebalanced for 1.5 years Within next 6 months I will need to sell 30-35% of the portfolio (for house downpayment) What's the best strategy for rebalancing? Do it now or later, when the funds are needed? Regardless of timing, what's the good approach on selling/keeping specific positions? Sell each position proportionally? Worst/best performers, more/less volatile ones, based on ETF class etc. All suggestions regarding strategy are appreciated. Question is can you tax loss harvest any part of the taxable holdings? I’d focus on selling anything with a loss to offset any taxable gains first. But in general why not sell the amount you need in the new...
by betablocker
Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching From Private Sector to Government
Replies: 55
Views: 4872

Re: Switching From Private Sector to Government

I a federal contracting company and know lots of federal employees. It can be a great career but for someone in sales I would imagine it would be frustrating. I don’t think your only choices are be a GS-7 or work in high pressure tech sales. We hire sales people for our company and the stress level is different than in a product sales role. It’s a long sales cycle in professional services. You could also become a consultant working for a contracting shop like mine. It’s pretty stable work and plenty of people convert over to fed at much higher GS levels. I’d be reluctant to take that big a pay and career cut unless working as a fed was my dream. If you are interested in talking more, I’m happy to help. Just DM me and I’ll give you my email.
by betablocker
Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best high yield savings accounts
Replies: 38
Views: 8329

Re: Best high yield savings accounts

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/. Honestly though if you don’t need the funds today. I’d put a quarter in savings account, a quarter into a 3 month treasury, a quarter into a 6 month treasury, and a quarter into a 1 year treasury. Just keep rolling the treasuries every 3 months. You can buy the Treasuries directly from the government at treasury direct.gov.
by betablocker
Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury ladder
Replies: 62
Views: 9832

Re: Treasury ladder

I’m revisiting this issue. The problem I see with most short term treasury funds is the duration is about 2 years. I think a 1 year duration makes much more sense for money you might need in the short term with principal available every 3 months. You can also effectively reduce the duration of your treasury ladder by not re-buying later dated Treasuries when needed.
by betablocker
Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs Schwab vs Fidelity for young/new investor
Replies: 78
Views: 9283

Re: Vanguard vs Schwab vs Fidelity for young/new investor

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:38 am I’d go with Schwab or Fidelity - for reasons noted above. Vanguard doesn’t offer a cash management product but Schwab does as does Fidelity and they offer debit cards. You can find low cost index funds there and you can buy ETFs.
Only thing I can’t stand about Schwab is that they force you to hold cash. You can’t have them automatically liquidate a money market when you withdrawal cash, pay bills, etc. Fidelity does that. Way better.
by betablocker
Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Bank FREE Robo Portfolios (Sample Portfolio included)
Replies: 11
Views: 1425

Re: Ally Bank FREE Robo Portfolios (Sample Portfolio included)

Hi everyone. I have yet to find a thorough analysis of the Ally Bank FREE Robo Portfolios. I am intrigued by it because: 1. It is a free service (apart from paying the expense ratios of the ETFs) 2. It is completely hands off (autopilot) But I definitely have some questions. Let’s assume for this discussion that an individual investor is looking for a “one-stop shop” complete portfolio solution with stocks and bonds for a taxable account. And their desired asset allocation was say 50/50. Here are the basics of what Ally offers: 1. The free version has a catch; the portfolio must hold 30% in cash . It’s called “Cash enhanced - No advisory fees, rebalancing fees, or annual charges, and 30% gets set aside as an interest-earning cash buffer.” ...
by betablocker
Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: where to park 2million for a house down payment for 18 months
Replies: 35
Views: 6026

Re: where to park 2million for a house down payment for 18 months

live in a high living cost area. properties are expensive. plan to upgrade to a better area within 18 months, for family reasons. having been gradually stepping out of the stock market, and preparing a 2 million down payment. Usually, I just park such money in the vanguard tax-exempt bond fund and found it's quite stable. however, this year the market quite fluctuates and big uncertainty ahead (rates, recession, etc.) 40 year old. two-income. thanks in advance. Put the first $20k into ibonds. You can set up an account at Treasury Direct. They are paying over 9% over the next 6 months but you are capped at $10k per person per year. You can also put $5k from a tax return into them. Great deal but that isn’t going to make much of a dent. I’d ...
by betablocker
Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stagflation?
Replies: 29
Views: 3994

Re: Stagflation?

That’s probably right. I’m enjoying my commodities now but know their long term record isn’t great. I’ve been contemplating rebalancing out of them over time or doing a trend following strategy but it’s a lot of complication for a small part of the portfolio.
by betablocker
Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stagflation?
Replies: 29
Views: 3994

Re: Stagflation?

What I take from this is a reinforcement of the importance diversification and in particular including foreign, commodities, and RE in that diversification. Many people just hold S&P 500 and Treasuries. On macro musings I tend to think everything moves in roughly 10 year cycles. So the S&P had it’s decade so whatever was beaten up most during that time will do well next: value, foreign, commodities. It isn’t perfect but there’s some evidence for it. As far as unemployment goes. I’m guessing we are in for higher unemployment soon. Commodity supply shocks tend to do that. Wasn’t unemployment low in the late 60s while inflation gained steam and then we had the oil embargo and it all went haywire?
by betablocker
Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:41 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: BABA and Tencent
Replies: 93
Views: 26185

Re: BABA and Tencent

Any views on BABA and Tencent? I know that stock picking is bad :twisted: but I really want some opinions on loading them up for the long term? :moneybag :moneybag :dollar I sold all mine. I think we are in the midst of a big geopolitical shift and things can go to zero again like they did pre Cold War. Russia is a good recent example. Clearly China is going to try to lower its dependency on US financial markets and after watching Russia they’ll accelerate that process. That dependency is a weapon. So I think the conflict between China and the US will mostly determine your outcome and not Baba or TenCent. That seems like a difficult situation to handicap. Maybe you can hedge by buying Lockheed Martin and US defense stocks. Only slightly ki...
by betablocker
Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation 2021/2022 - How can I change my asset allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 2070

Re: Inflation 2021/2022 - How can I change my asset allocation?

Have you looked at I Bonds? You can buy them directly from the government at Treasury Direct. They are currently paying over 7% and are adjusted for inflation every 6 months I believe. Downsides are you are capped to $10k a year and any tax refund. Additionally you need to keep the money in I bonds for a year to get that interest. After that you forfeit the last 3 months interest after you withdrawal the money. It’s the best deal going right now and would certainly make sense for your fixed income holdings that you don’t need to access in the next year.
by betablocker
Sun Oct 31, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?
Replies: 241
Views: 21047

Re: why is it so wrong to say the market is overvalued?

i realize we could be at the lowest point we'll see for the market for the next several decades or longer... but it's still a fact that the market is at one of the most elevated levels that it's ever been, at least if you look at price to earnings. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio if we're not overvalued now, then we're almost never over valued. i realize whether it's over valued or fair valued or whatever shouldn't change our strategy, but the prices are still abnormally elevated. i also realize that there is a play on words here...if we're at the lowest point we'll ever see again indefinitely, then relatively speaking a person could say we're not over valued. or if we continue getting historical returns in the near and long term, ...
by betablocker
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Small Business Resources
Replies: 18
Views: 1674

Re: Small Business Resources

I own a small business that verges on medium ($10-$15m) and I would first do a lot of due diligence on the franchise. There are some good ones but there are a lot of rip offs. Another angle is to buy an existing non franchise business. This isn't easy either. You can search bizbuysell or try to network with local business brokers or intermediaries (lawyers, accountants, etc.). The entire baby boom is about to retire so that's an option. Read the eMyth Revisited, Traction or Scaling Up, Straight Talk Simple Numbers, Big Profits, and anything by Brent Beshore at Permanent Equity. If you do start or buy a business join your local entrepreneurs organization. In the meantime find anyone in your network who has started or bought a business and bu...
by betablocker
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use Vanguard MM Prime for cash rather than local bank?
Replies: 69
Views: 9359

Re: Use Vanguard MM Prime for cash rather than local bank?

I’ve found vanguard to be a nightmare to deal with as a bank. Great funds. Terrible customer service. I switched to Fidelity. A bit less on the MM but worth it for all the hassles of VG.
by betablocker
Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market and CD rates - what does it mean?
Replies: 8
Views: 1065

Re: Money Market and CD rates - what does it mean?

Does that mean he didn't ask what an inversion means or wanted advice on Japanese paper folding?
by betablocker
Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Mortgage for High Net Worth? 20% down then HELOC the 80% balance?
Replies: 17
Views: 2110

Re: Best Mortgage for High Net Worth? 20% down then HELOC the 80% balance?

If you are wealthy, my idea would be to get an interest only arm and pay least amount possible. Then you could transfer assets to interactive brokers and use their dirt cheap margin for cash. Why pay higher interest rates and principle. This is only if you have the dough to pay off the mortgage if you get in trouble/interest rates suddenly rise/etc. What sort of margin do you think is possible. Is the idea to take out cash against the balance you have in bonds? EG: if you have 150k in bonds it wouldn't be too risky to take out $150k in cash on margin. They'll only let you margin a certain amount depending on the security. I'd say if you have a 60/40 portfolio, I'd only margin it 25-30%. You don't want a margin call so be sure you can take ...
by betablocker
Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market and CD rates - what does it mean?
Replies: 8
Views: 1065

Re: Money Market and CD rates - what does it mean?

I believe it is a reflection of the treasury yield curve being inverted. There's some evidence that inversion means the market thinks rates will be lower in the future. That usually implies a recession which would cause the fed to cut rates. I've thought about locking in longer term rates but who knows what the future holds.
by betablocker
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 6658

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

My sense is that they are a bit behind the times despite the adaptations they have made. Using a mutual fund structure instead of an ETF creates tax inefficiency and their use of price to book instead of EV to EBITDA or other measures. I haven’t checked in on DFA lately so my info could be out of date. I’m using Alpha Architects ETFs instead.
by betablocker
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Mortgage for High Net Worth? 20% down then HELOC the 80% balance?
Replies: 17
Views: 2110

Re: Best Mortgage for High Net Worth? 20% down then HELOC the 80% balance?

If you are wealthy, my idea would be to get an interest only arm and pay least amount possible. Then you could transfer assets to interactive brokers and use their dirt cheap margin for cash. Why pay higher interest rates and principle. This is only if you have the dough to pay off the mortgage if you get in trouble/interest rates suddenly rise/etc.
by betablocker
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recommendations for business bank account for LLC?
Replies: 25
Views: 3759

Re: Recommendations for business bank account for LLC?

While I understand the plug for credit unions, it's not going to help me much. I live in a small town and work half an hour away in a smaller town. The local credit union (there's only one) is open 8:30-4:30 M-F. I'd have to take a vacation day just to go in and talk to them, and their reputation (on Yelp, taking it with a grain of salt) is not that great. The local chains aren't much different, though one of them is open late enough if I rushed out of work I could maybe catch them 20 minutes before closing one day a week. I looked at Fidelity, but it looked like all of the business accounts I saw were investment accounts. I don't think I need that. Just a separate container to collect and distribute income, and make some very rare busines...
by betablocker
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those of you who have a factor diversified portfolio, what is yours?
Replies: 57
Views: 6598

Re: For those of you who have a factor diversified portfolio, what is yours?

I tilt to momentum and value with a combo of VMOT (which covers international and domestic value and momentum) and I shares international and domestic momentum and DFA international and domestic small value. VMOT also trend follows so adds a bit of that. In my tax deferred accounts I also get exposure to reinsurance and alternative lending. Those aren’t equity factors but separate sources of risk so after the same thing.
by betablocker
Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to Vermont/New Hampshire
Replies: 34
Views: 3207

Re: Trip to Vermont/New Hampshire

My wife and I are long due for a kids-free vacation this fall. We're currently looking at doing a trip to Vermont/New Hampshire during peak foliage season which I've read runs from mid-September to mid-October, so likely right around October 1st give or take a few days. We reside about an hour from the Great Smoky Mountains and would be flying with at least one connection to get to the northeast. Currently planning for 5-6 days depending on how long it would take us to get to/from the location from an airline perspective. (As a corporate traveler I tend to assume delayed flights on travel days so I wouldn't want to bank on having an extra 1/2 day based on arriving on time.) She's mentioned flying into NYC and driving up (she loves NYC) but...
by betablocker
Thu May 30, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?
Replies: 58
Views: 4427

Re: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?

hi all in 2005, i took out a 30-year with 7-year fixed rate at 5.5% ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) which tracks the 1 year treasury bill with a 2.75% margin with an annual readjustment. the interest rate dropped to 0% when 2012 came. instead of refinancing, i just let the ARM ride. so my mortgage interest dropped from 5.5% to 2.75% and stayed at a low rate for a few years. the interest rate has been rising in the past few years so my rate has been going up from 2.75% to 4.75% steadily. i received a notice from the bank stating that the interest rate will be at 5.125% for the upcoming year 2019-2020. based on the following factors: - the balance is about $100K and i have the fund to pay it off comfortably - the monthly payment is low at $78...
by betablocker
Thu May 30, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?
Replies: 26
Views: 4851

Re: Inverted Yield Curve, should i be buying VBTLX?

You would buy longer term because as rate cuts happen they effect the short term bonds most directly. The longer term bonds you already had would then have a higher yield. Effectively the fed would be cutting rates to get the yield curve back to a normal slope. Trying to time this stuff is nonsense though. I don't think total bond is the way to go anytime. Too much risk. Go with intermediate treasuries or a blend of intermediate and shorter term.
by betablocker
Wed May 29, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why don't small businesses for sale list their earnings AFTER taxes?
Replies: 6
Views: 653

Re: Why don't small businesses for sale list their earnings AFTER taxes?

Definitely watch out for some common tricks: trying to pass off owners salary as profit. All business need to be run and the salary of the person running it is an expense no matter what a broker says. Two trying to back out one time and personal expenses. Yes there are some personal expenses that a new owner might not need but the vast majority will be things you need to spend money on. Three BSC king out capex/depreciation. If you are depreciating it you’ll almost always need to buy it again. Four, selling no existing future growth. That’s just bs. Good luck!
by betablocker
Tue May 21, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Value Investing. What am I missing here?
Replies: 7
Views: 1216

Re: Value Investing. What am I missing here?

Thank you all for replys. I hear the view that country diversification is probably the more sensible bet. This has been my reasoning for holding Global cap weight. The large holding of U.S and mega caps firms doesn't completely sit well with me though. This is a whole area of debate and academic research that goes far beyond value. No question that the evidence shows that a small handful of factors have outperformed in the past: Value, momentum, quality, low vol, etc. Larry Swedroe has a great book citing all the evidence as does Alpha Architect. The problem is those factors are different from the general market so they sometimes underperform as value has recently and in the 90s bubble although momentum and others have outperformed in the ...
by betablocker
Fri May 17, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 29yo Investment Plan Review
Replies: 17
Views: 2549

Re: 29yo Investment Plan Review

Emergency funds/Short term savings: 20,000. Currently have about 10,000. Plan to contribute 500/month until funded. Plan to save ~5000 toward a vacation fund. Plan to save for new car which we expect to need in 1-2 years. Will keep all this in an online savings account that brings in 2.2% Debt: 1. Student loans – 158,000. 4.75% fixed. Plan to refinance once start new job and pay off in 4 years. 2. Mortgage – 151,000. 30 year loan at 3.7% fixed. Plan to refinance to 15 year. 3. Car loan – 15,000. 3 years remaining of 0%. Tax Filing Status: Married Filing Jointly Tax Rate: 22% Federal State of Residence: Indiana Age: 29 Retirement: Savings rate: Plan to save 30,000 a year in pre-tax fund with a goal of 3 million by retirement at age 65. This...
by betablocker
Wed May 08, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait
Replies: 12
Views: 2679

Re: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait

Lots of misinformation here. Most of it pretty obvious: The MSCI ESGG Quality Score is about environmental and social performance not performance as a value fund. Second, there wasn't as much research because it was an interview and not a research article. Third, as was pointed out AA uses EV/EBITDA not Price to Book. He's simply using the most popular varient. Fourth, the fact that spreads are at historic averages is evidence that the value effect is still intact. If it weren't the spread would be shrinking. Agreed it isn't the late 90s type level but you don't need that to get value outperformance Fifth, we are on a 10 year bull run for large cap and growth. It will change but no one knows when. Sixth, AA doesn't just use value, they also...
by betablocker
Sat May 04, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 3431

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Kayakr wrote: Fri May 03, 2019 12:29 pm Are there any other longtime dollar cost average buyers questioning putting their biweekly savings into such a highly valued market where both stocks and bonds seem to have nothing but downside risk? If so, what's your plan?
If you diversify across EM, foreign, real estate, Us and bonds you should be good. The US will surely return less at some point and other assets will do better.
by betablocker
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"
Replies: 64
Views: 8422

Re: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"

The main point for me is that it underlines how "everyone" can be recommending some investment category, seemingly with total certitude and total confidence, and despite it being universal conventional wisdom, when the dust settles it can still turn out to have been trendy nonsense after all. Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds? Here's the gist, the whole article is much longer and worth reading. In the early 1990s, emerging-markets stock funds were the rage.... Higher risk, according to conventional theory, meant higher returns--and there was no doubt that emerging markets carried higher risk. They also offered excellent growth prospects. The Asian Miracle was a catchphrase. ...surely, those income gains would lead...
by betablocker
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Cash Management
Replies: 10
Views: 3285

Re: Fidelity Cash Management

I use Fidelity as a one stop shop as do many others. Vanguard had an account like that but are discontinuing it according to threads I’ve read here. They were a disaster for me anyway. They run great funds but I don’t like them as a brokerage, bank, etc. Fidelity allows you to keep cash in money markets that auto liquidate when you write checks or do atm withdrawals. Schwab is another option but they don’t do the auto liquidations so you have to sell money markets on your own leaving more money is low return accounts.
by betablocker
Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Business - Requesting advice on how to invest proceeds
Replies: 15
Views: 2128

Re: Selling Business - Requesting advice on how to invest proceeds

I have been a Boglehead convert for about 5 years. I have proudly broken free from my previous "investment advisors" and their return-crippling fees. It's been liberating. I am fortunate in that I will receive a large sum soon and I am anxious to get your investment advice. I am 48, a business owner, and I have decided to partner with private equity. As a result of the transaction, I expect to receive approximately $9.5M in proceeds. My cost basis for this sale is ~$2M, leaving a ~$7.5M capital gain subject to long-term capital gains (LTCG) taxes. I live in Ohio (LTCG Tax = 5%), so I expect taxes to take 25% or ~2M. I have business-related debt of $650,000. Below, I outline my current financial situation: Summary of Business Sale...
by betablocker
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 78
Views: 8368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Of course if I were 10 years out with low valuations and values returned to the mean over the next 5-7 years I’d (hopefully) cash out and be happy. Yes so would everyone else, but that has nothing to do with the valuation prediction 5-7 years previous but the fact the ACTUAL returns were excellent thus changing your willingness, need, and ability to take risk. The question (based on your stance) is that at the zero year you would have saved LESS thinking for sure the returns would be excellent so need to save more. Would you really have done that in the shoes of that investor on year zero. Great thing about hindsight it is always correct and obvious. Good luck. Scenario 1: At year zero you plan to invest 10 dollars. The markets look overva...
by betablocker
Wed Apr 17, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I’m a Loser Stuck in a Dead End Job
Replies: 63
Views: 10508

Re: I’m a Loser Stuck in a Dead End Job

Really appreciate the advice given so far, and to the op that posted about their family going through similar circumstances, I pray and hope things get much better, completely understand what you are going through. As for the degree, I had went for general business at the university of Houston, so even if I was to complete it, have I picked the wrong major? Programming skills wise, I started at 12 learning basic and c in my spare time, and just moved forward. Database management and structure would probably be the hardest for me, but as for web development, that’s where I excel. In fact word of mouth is how I obtained my last client. I guess I have to keep pressing forward and change career lanes? I run a business and my guess would be you...
by betablocker
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 78
Views: 8368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Of course if I were 10 years out with low valuations and values returned to the mean over the next 5-7 years I’d (hopefully) cash out and be happy. Yes so would everyone else, but that has nothing to do with the valuation prediction 5-7 years previous but the fact the ACTUAL returns were excellent thus changing your willingness, need, and ability to take risk. The question (based on your stance) is that at the zero year you would have saved LESS thinking for sure the returns would be excellent so need to save more. Would you really have done that in the shoes of that investor on year zero. Great thing about hindsight it is always correct and obvious. Good luck. Scenario 1: At year zero you plan to invest 10 dollars. The markets look overva...
by betablocker
Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 78
Views: 8368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Unless someone can say the returns are going to be exactly X I don't see how they are useful. Having 3-4 different asset classes in a portfolio with each having a range of possible returns gives a HUGE variation on possible end returns. I don't really understand why folks even try to guestimate returns. In HISTORY the data has shown that NO ONE has successfully done it AND has repeatedly done it (thus eliminating just plain luck being right the first time). Folks would better be off focusing on construction asset allocation based on volatility as those are much more consistent over different time periods. The best we have gotten in all these years is: Usually stocks return more then bonds which return more then cash. Each subasset seems to...
by betablocker
Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 78
Views: 8368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Unless someone can say the returns are going to be exactly X I don't see how they are useful. Having 3-4 different asset classes in a portfolio with each having a range of possible returns gives a HUGE variation on possible end returns. I don't really understand why folks even try to guestimate returns. In HISTORY the data has shown that NO ONE has successfully done it AND has repeatedly done it (thus eliminating just plain luck being right the first time). Folks would better be off focusing on construction asset allocation based on volatility as those are much more consistent over different time periods. The best we have gotten in all these years is: Usually stocks return more then bonds which return more then cash. Each subasset seems to...
by betablocker
Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 78
Views: 8368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Unless someone can say the returns are going to be exactly X I don't see how they are useful. Having 3-4 different asset classes in a portfolio with each having a range of possible returns gives a HUGE variation on possible end returns. I don't really understand why folks even try to guestimate returns. In HISTORY the data has shown that NO ONE has successfully done it AND has repeatedly done it (thus eliminating just plain luck being right the first time). Folks would better be off focusing on construction asset allocation based on volatility as those are much more consistent over different time periods. The best we have gotten in all these years is: Usually stocks return more then bonds which return more then cash. Each subasset seems to...
by betablocker
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?
Replies: 37
Views: 4333

Re: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?

So I guess the argument is that the only things you should invest in are stocks, bonds and real estate. Everything else is a scam no matter what evidence is presented? I think you’ll do fine believing that just seems an intellectually limiting way to live life. Confirmation bias lives!
by betablocker
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 6585

Re: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?

kaneohe wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:31 pm
betablocker wrote: Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:12 pm Sweeps are highest rate at Vanguard but if you want it integrated with checking: FIdo
Is it possible for the VG or Fido sweeps to "break the buck"? If so, that means it's not illegal to offer such?
They are money markets so technically can break the buck. If it were a treasury MM not sure there’s any risk there. I wouldn’t worry about it. The government is going to back treasury and standard MMs. The whole financial system would melt down if they don’t. That’s why they restrict corporations from having riskier MM. I can’t hold a muni MM in my company account.
by betablocker
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Choose a MMF or Savings account?
Replies: 21
Views: 3130

Re: Should I Choose a MMF or Savings account?

A savings account is FDIC insured so riskless. The down side is you can only do 6 transactions a month and you are taxed at your ordinary tax rate. A money market is more liquid. I use them in my bank account at fidelity to pay bills, atm withdrawals, etc. Fido auto sells the MM to cover what I withdraw. But the MM is not insured. In 2008 MMS lost value briefly aka broke the buck but the government quickly stepped in to ensure liquidity. What you should use to park money is decision based on the timeframe in which you need the $s, your tax situation, and your risk level. If you don’t need the money for 2 years but want no risk and have a low tax rate think about CDs. If you need it in 3-6 months and have a high state tax rate and want no ri...
by betablocker
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 6585

Re: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?

Sweeps are highest rate at Vanguard but if you want it integrated with checking: FIdo
by betablocker
Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 6585

Re: Schwab users: Does Schwab discourage the purchase of money market funds?

I pulled all my money from Schwab for this reason and went to Fidelity. The fact that you can't transact out of a MM for banking is ridiculous and obviously set up to screw the customer. I'd use Vanguard but they are a total disaster at anything other than running a fund. Forget about try to bank or anything else. I tried to set up an organization account at Vanguard and found myself in a Brezhnevesque mad house called Vanguard customer service. Change to Fido. The 20 extra basis points is worth not talking to someone who was hired yesterday and put in charge of high value accounts. I'm not necessarily bothered by Schwab making money off uninvested cash, since they have low fees elsewhere I can live with that trade off. But if I decide I d...
by betablocker
Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 79
Views: 11071

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

The only useful thing I could take from it is if I had a treasury ladder. I’d shorten it to where the curve inverts.
by betablocker
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 6053
Views: 1036993

Re: Fidelity Cash Management Account - Investments

oxothuk wrote: Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:28 pm
betablocker wrote: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:34 pm
southerndoc wrote: Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:13 pm Can someone confirm with the Fidelity Cash Management account that Fidelity will automatically sell investments at the end of the day to cover checks and ATM withdrawals? I've read posts from a search, but many of those were a little older. I wanted to make sure Fidelity hasn't changed anything recently.

Are there limits to which funds Fidelity will automatically sell to cover withdrawals?
One thing I'd add is to set up margin on your brokerage account as a last line of defense for overdrafts.
Or maybe not. Having no margin capability is a way of limiting my exposure in case my account or debit card get stolen/hacked.
You can set up alerts and other safe guards to deal with that issue but whatever floats your boat.