Search found 978 matches

by gilgamesh
Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps
Replies: 77
Views: 8954

Re: William Bernstein: Retirement Investing and Spending in two easy steps

Dandy has explained a lot of the missing parts to this staregy - most importantly the “side portfolio” exposed heavily to the stock market, and on how this strategy, which guarantees future income, makes it easier to spend through a down market. It is indeed for a typical retirement age of say 60. T...
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The market is over valued even today. A BH should aware of this and be value oriented. This is not market timing. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/markets-could-suddenly-turn-and-they-dont-even-need-a-trigger-nobel-winning-economist-shiller-says.html Are you sure value orientation is BH philosophy? ...
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The market is over valued even today. A BH should aware of this and be value oriented. This is not market timing. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/markets-could-suddenly-turn-and-they-dont-even-need-a-trigger-nobel-winning-economist-shiller-says.html Are you sure value orientation is BH philosophy? ...
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Delete
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:36 pm
Officially back to October levels ...
October 2017 though....let's see where this goes.
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

lws6772 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:55 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:45 pm
This is a tiny bit over dramatic.
Correct or should I say correction. :D
Did intraday low reach 10% of 'all time high' for S&P500?
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Bitcoin jokes are almost transferable to S&P swings...

Son: Dad I'd like $100 in S&P 500 stocks for my birthday
Dad: $92? Why do you need $107 for? :D

Volatility...
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?
Replies: 26
Views: 1698

Re: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?

When it comes to the 199A pass-thru deduction, the bigggest variable is the upcoming IRS regulations. Almost everyone agrees (because it's so ambiguous and passed at the last moment without comprehensive thought) that over the next few months/years IRS will issue their interpretation of the 199A ded...
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?
Replies: 26
Views: 1698

Re: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?

Not sure I understand your question. I was an S Corp in 2017 and will unincorporated in 2018. Am told I am better off on the tax front within my plan to max retirement by electing to unwind. I am not a professional, but my thinking in your situation would be that your taxes are your taxes depending...
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm deeply amused that folks on this thread seem to view this thread like the majority of folks view the stock market - paying too much attention to the noise. See these two posts and similar: I've learned a lot about many of the posters in this thread over the past couple of days. They are expert ...
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The only thing that was amusing to me so far was the people's reaction to recent events...I did not expect that.

However, I have to say, even I find the daily volatility amusing - this is the first time I've even bothered to look. So, I find that quite interesting!
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?
Replies: 26
Views: 1698

Re: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?

Not a doc. My friction is maxing retirement contributions, and taking a reasonable salary. TBH, this is the first year I did an S-Corp, and hated the excesses paperwork/hoops. I am thrilled to be going back to Sole P, so much easier. CPA just told me that its much better to unwind given my prioriti...
by gilgamesh
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 8416

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

I have about 30% more in retirement funds than my Investment policy / my plan says I should hve . I have considered reducing risk. However, my plan says that if I reduce risk I will never increase it. It's a one way commitment. I suggest you make the same commitment in order to avoid emotional mist...
by gilgamesh
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day
Replies: 278
Views: 47205

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

DOW Futures are down -600 again... [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] This does not appear to be a pullback but a full on crash, perhaps 30-40% we will see... If DOW drops another 600 points, the current chain of losses can finally be called a correction right? We would have reached a loss of 10% from hi...
by gilgamesh
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370396

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I thought posters were being sarcastic with the doom and gloom...I guess they weren't...stunned, this is all it takes for some to panic...I guess all that talk about visualizing stocks dropping 50% and not recovering for 5 years was taken as a joke by some...this? This is NOTHING!
by gilgamesh
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

But, when you invest that money you wanted to pay tax with, at the same asset allocation as the two asset classes you chose (one that grew to $90k and the other to $63k), I'm fairly certain you will get the same results...it just doesn't matter. I know it doesn't make intuitive sense, but I'm almos...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 8416

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

It came from people's willingness to buy future growth and profits in very real, very tangible businesses. People's willingness to buy anything is what gives it monetary value. Didn't it also (mainly?) come from businesses being more productive? Research, development and innovation allows businesse...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16307

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Ok!, I think one final question, I'm pretty sure you back tested this plus overall feel comfortable with it. However, isn't it difficult to back test asset classes like 'emerging markets' too far back - do emerging markets of the past have semblance to current?... If you agree with that premise, ar...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 8416

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

I cashed in big time and used it to move up to a waaaay better house. Houses as good for us as this one that we can also afford might come on the market once a year if that. The market could double next year but I wont lose sleep over it. The decision to cash in wasnt because the market went up but...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Will the timing of the 2018 Roth conversion really matter in the distant future? Yes, a series of annual conversions will make a difference. Yes, we can later calculate what would have been the optimal date for each of the conversions and lament the losses, but only in hindsight. Glass half full, h...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Same thing with "horse race" Roth conversions. Never made sense. Here's a real example from 2009 to show why it makes sense. I admit it's an extreme example: One 45k conversion was worth 90k in March of 2010. The other 45k conversion was worth 63k. March is when I was recharacterizing. For tax reas...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Same thing with "horse race" Roth conversions. Never made sense. So, the new rules which doesn't allow Roth rechrecterization doesn't matter in that sense, but say doing Roth conversion higher than one may want to, but recharecterize it back to exact marginal tax bracket is not possible anymore. So,...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16307

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

I use a relative strength momentum approach with a seven month timing window. This means that I invest in whichever asset class I have access to in a given account (e.g. 401k, HSA, IRAs) that has had the highest returns over the last seven months. This includes assets like large cap growth, mid cap...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

But still, if we are keeping the AA same wouldn't it still be the same? Don't know. I'm not sure what your example has to do with what the poster asked. Perhaps I'm just not following. I am trying to understand and find an answer to OP's specific question. OP can post which non-retirement asset cla...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

But still, if we are keeping the AA same wouldn't it still be the same? Taxes are paid from funds which also drops 50% and gains 100% So, Day1 $100 converted to Roth, taxable went from $50 to $30 after paying $20 in taxes Day 4: $100 in Roth, taxable $30 Day 3 convert $50 to Roth, taxable goes from...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Say you have $100 in tIRA you want to convert to Roth. Tax 20%. Day 1 you have $100 convert to Roth, pay $20 taxes and $80 converted into Roth. Day 2 market drops 50% you are down to $40 Day 4 market gains 100% you are back to $80. You wish to convert after the initial market drop on day 3. Day 3: ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Say you have $100 in tIRA you want to convert to Roth. Tax 20%. Day 1 you have $100 convert to Roth, pay $20 taxes and $80 converted into Roth. Day 2 market drops 50% you are down to $40 Day 4 market gains 100% you are back to $80. You wish to convert after the initial market drop on day 3. Day 3: ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Say you have $100 in tIRA you want to convert to Roth. Tax 20%. Day 1 you have $100 convert to Roth, pay $20 taxes and $80 converted into Roth. Day 2 market drops 50% you are down to $40 Day 4 market gains 100% you are back to $80. You wish to convert after the initial market drop on day 3. Day 3: Y...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 8416

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

Going to throw this out there, pretty much knowing what people are going to say. But how many others are out there, thinking the same way. Account is up a very healthy amount the last year, not to mention just the last 4 weeks (well into the 5 figures). I think the run up in the last year is 80% em...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a form of Market Timing?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304

Re: Is this a form of Market Timing?

Assume one has a deductible IRA balance that he wants converted to a Roth. Would it be considered trying to "time the market" to wait for a market downturn to decrease the balance and pay lower taxes? Whether you pay higher taxes or not is not always important, what you are left with is...you might...
by gilgamesh
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16307

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Being a rules-based trend follower, I'm not substantially changing anything (e.g. moving into bonds or SVF) unless/until my holdings drop another 8%. Is this just your rebalancing band or is it more? If more, you may have a thread here and can your provide the link. Thanks! I use a relative strengt...
by gilgamesh
Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16307

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Being a rules-based trend follower, I'm not substantially changing anything (e.g. moving into bonds or SVF) unless/until my holdings drop another 8%. Is this just your rebalancing band or is it more? If more, you may have a thread here and can your provide the link. Thanks! I use a relative strengt...
by gilgamesh
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 16307

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:53 am
Being a rules-based trend follower, I'm not substantially changing anything (e.g. moving into bonds or SVF) unless/until my holdings drop another 8%.
Is this just your rebalancing band or is it more? If more, you may have a thread here and can your provide the link. Thanks!
by gilgamesh
Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day
Replies: 278
Views: 47205

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day

cutehumor wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:59 pm
I'm so glad for the drop. I just got a bonus from work, so I'm gonna put 50% of my paycheck in my 401k the next few weeks. Buying stock on sale!
This is a sale? There was a better sale less than a month ago.
by gilgamesh
Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling and buying a home in a high market
Replies: 9
Views: 836

Re: Selling and buying a home in a high market

Yep you've figured out the paradox of upgrading your house in a high market. Upgrading a down market is the best if you still have the cash. Bingo!...I upgraded, big time, in a down market...didn't realize my windfall until it happened...yup! As long as you have the cash - thanks to my wife's "anno...
by gilgamesh
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Updates...
Replies: 16
Views: 2734

Re: Social Security Updates...

One thing these 14-16 year break even calculations never seem to consider is that not only does it take that long to get back the income you lost by not taking SS, it doesn’t include the 14-16 years you could’ve compounded investment gains of various types. Hundreds of thousands of dollars of inves...
by gilgamesh
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Updates...
Replies: 16
Views: 2734

Re: Social Security Updates...

Any reduction in benefit caused by claiming before FRA is calculate[d] by the month. As shown in footnote c on this SSA webpage the reduction is 5/9% for each month up to 36 and 5/12% for each additional month. Months ------ Reduction ------ 1 5/9 % ( 0.56% ) 2 1 1/9 % ( 1.11% ) 3 1 2/3 % ( 1.67% )...
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?
Replies: 26
Views: 1698

Re: Unincorporating? How easy to do? S corp to sole proprietorship?

Physician with S corp. No employees. Gross yearly income 350k. Distribution 112k. Is it worth having an S corp? Have to pay a CPA $1500 year to do all the paperwork. Would it be better to set up as a sole proprietor? One issue is that I am (corp) part of a partnership in a physician's group. Not su...
by gilgamesh
Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is changing AA considered market timing?
Replies: 37
Views: 1611

Re: Is changing AA considered market timing?

bertilak wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:01 pm
Changing your investment strategy based on an expectation of changes in market behavior is about as close to the definition of market timing as one can get.
^ This...
by gilgamesh
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't market time...i know, i know.
Replies: 34
Views: 4634

Re: Don't market time...i know, i know.

I have a retirement date about 2 yrs from now. The markets are beyond my wildest imagination; more in my nest egg than I need. Is there a way to 'set some aside'? Sure, flame me, but I've been an invest and hold guy for 30 yrs. Never touched my 95% equities holdings even during 2007 era. Now stocks...
by gilgamesh
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 6678

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:12 pm

Now, the cryptocurrency market... that sounds just like the 1920s.
Yikes!...the afficianados are going to rebel...they think its the 22nd century and think we are all stuck in the 21st. :oops:

P.S: I'm just noise...just couldn't help but insert my bias.
by gilgamesh
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Taleb on Bitcoin
Replies: 21
Views: 3498

Re: Nassim Taleb on Bitcoin

So he thinks there should be changes in banking and currency, and that bitcoin is a proof-of-concept for a banking/currency system without central authority, which proves that it will happen someday. Shrug. "There needs to be automatic computation. Now that I've seen Mr. Charles Babbage's differenc...
by gilgamesh
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guideline 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 920

Re: Guideline 401k

Your funds are kept in Benefit Trust Company...when asked about what happens if gudieline closes shop, this is the reply I got. "Fair question! You'll be able to log into your companies' BTC account once you've completed Guideline plan set-up, so you'll always have visibility of your trust account a...
by gilgamesh
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]
Replies: 140
Views: 10193

Re: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]

When taxable income is less than QBI, any taxable event will cost only 80 cents on the dollar until taxable income is same as QBI. Another more useful way to look at this is take your marginal tax bracket and reduce it by 20%, that is the cost of any taxable event and not your marginal tax bracket. ...
by gilgamesh
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]
Replies: 140
Views: 10193

Re: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]

thanks, that's a good thing to keep in mind - maybe I'll edit the sample above. on the other hand, I've seen it mentioned that investment income is taken into account when calculating whether or not you've breached the income limit threshold. Your above calculation is exactly how I understand and I...
by gilgamesh
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confusion about prepaying property taxes
Replies: 139
Views: 14330

Re: Confusion about prepaying property taxes

This is whats weird about it...when I called the county I had no idea the assessement was done, neither did the employee I spoke to (there was just one when I went there), so I had to guesstimate my amount (over payed by almost $500). Later IRS issued its statement which prompted me to go to the we...
by gilgamesh
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confusion about prepaying property taxes
Replies: 139
Views: 14330

Re: Confusion about prepaying property taxes

Our property taxes are accessed for Jan-June and July to Dec of the same year. But billed the following year. So, for 2016 property taxes (both Jan-June and July-Dec), I get an invoice in early part of 2017. Which I pay in 2017 and deduct in my 2017 taxes. However, when I looked in December they ha...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confusion about prepaying property taxes
Replies: 139
Views: 14330

Re: Confusion about prepaying property taxes

I'm in Summit County, Ohio and prepaid before the new year. I called the Fiscal Office this past week, and asked when the tax is "assessed" and they said it was indeed assessed last year. We are taxed in arrears, so I did pay taxes for 2017, not 2018 - however they don't bill for the 2017 taxes unt...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Confusion about prepaying property taxes
Replies: 139
Views: 14330

Re: Confusion about prepaying property taxes

I'm in Summit County, Ohio and prepaid before the new year. I called the Fiscal Office this past week, and asked when the tax is "assessed" and they said it was indeed assessed last year. We are taxed in arrears, so I did pay taxes for 2017, not 2018 - however they don't bill for the 2017 taxes unt...