Search found 318 matches

by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Well Done Ally Bank - CD purchase
Replies: 61
Views: 12048

Re: Well Done Ally Bank - CD purchase

A few months ago I opened an account with Ally Bank, today (a bank holiday) I purchased my first CD and all I can say is I was very impressed by the ease and simplicity of the process. Two Thumbs. Considering all the poor service threads I thought I would give a shout out for good customer service....
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute to bad 457b or invest in taxable account?
Replies: 5
Views: 329

Re: Contribute to bad 457b or invest in taxable account?

A mandatory 457(b) contribution? That's odd, but even it is wasn't mandatory, you should never turn down free money. I'd fund the 457(b) with just enough to get that 3% match, but no more. If you have additional money to invest and you've exhausted other tax advantaged accounts you may have, like a ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How young is too young to retire.
Replies: 49
Views: 5808

Re: How young is too young to retire.

I would stop thinking of your goal as early retirement, but instead frame it as achieving financial independence (FI). That might make more sense and sound more appealing to you and particularly your wife. FI means that, yes, you have enough money to retire, but retirement is just one of many option...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]
Replies: 45
Views: 5567

Re: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]

I strongly disagree with anyone who states that current income is ok at any level. As long as your income for the time you put in is lower than it would be some where else then your current income is not ok. This is objective from a purely mathematical standpoint. The next question is whether the t...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

I love dividends! Well, not exactly, but I do tilt toward dividend paying stocks in my portfolio. I simply do so in my Roth IRA. Value stocks tend to be more likely to pay a dividend as compared to growth stocks, and I own Vanguard’s small cap and mid cap indexes in my Roth IRA. I also own the REIT...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

Personal opinion: I think this thread is focusing too much on what a particular individual is doing as regards slightly suboptimal investing. If that Particular Individual accumulates several million dollars in mostly high dividend paying stocks over the next forty years, I think he'll be fine, jus...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

Do dividend adverse investors avoid Total Stock Market and S&P 500 Index funds? You don't hear practical suggestions to concentrate in stocks that do not pay dividends. A reason for that could include the possibility that this would mean tilting to growth rather than value factor which is the oppos...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

As for the tax implications, we are in the 15% bracket and pay taxes on the dividends anyway so ... why not spend them? If you invest in Total Stock Market, whose dividends are mostly qualified, isn't the tax rate essentially zero in the 15% bracket? Correct. I believe VTSAX was 93% qualified last ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

I loathe dividends and am perplexed by people's obsession with them. If a mutual fund or stock's dividend yield isn't high enough for your liking, sell some stock and create your home grown dividend. For an investor with a multi decade investing horizon, I hate the drag caused by dividends, as show...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

Is Berkshire Hathaway as an investment subject to single stock risk? Yes, but not to the same extent as most other individual stocks. Berkshire fully owns dozens of companies and has a substantial position in many more. It's one stock, but it acts more like an index fund than most. It's the only in...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14794

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

I really don't want to get into this argument again. However, I would like to point out some items to (Physician On Fire) for future reference. 1). Not everyone lives in California. 2). Not everyone is in the 25% tax bracket. 3). Not every State imposes high taxes on dividends. 4). Everyone is not ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel camera reviews of what you own and why?
Replies: 25
Views: 1581

Re: Travel camera reviews of what you own and why?

I travel with an Olympus micro four thirds mirrorless setup. I've got 2 EM-10 bodies and a few prime and zoom lenses. I used to have a Nikon DSLR system, but it was all so heavy and bulky. I'm very happy with my current Oly system and I get some great photos with it. Having 2 bodies keeps me from h...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel camera reviews of what you own and why?
Replies: 25
Views: 1581

Re: Travel camera reviews of what you own and why?

I travel with an Olympus micro four thirds mirrorless setup. I've got 2 EM-10 bodies and a few prime and zoom lenses. I used to have a Nikon DSLR system, but it was all so heavy and bulky. I'm very happy with my current Oly system and I get some great photos with it. Having 2 bodies keeps me from ha...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 stages of Financial Independence
Replies: 63
Views: 7044

Re: 3 stages of Financial Independence

I'm also in my 3rd "OMY" since discovering we had achieved FI a couple years ago. I'm pretty sure there will be a 4th "OMY" but these next two years will be spent working part time (new schedule starts next week!) Your three stages are similar to the White Coat Investors #12, #13, and #14 in his 14 ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your monthly expenses?
Replies: 69
Views: 7326

Re: What are your monthly expenses?

Family of 4. Debt free including no mortgage. Last year, we spent $62,000. Breakdown here . https://i1.wp.com/www.physicianonfire.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/MintOverallPie.png?w=491&ssl=1 https://i1.wp.com/www.physicianonfire.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/MintOverallList.png?w=452&ssl=1 In the ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 14587

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

I'm ordering from the McD's dollar menu and using the McD's app to score a free medium fry or milkshake! For years, I lived below my means because I wanted to become wealthy. Now that I'm reasonably wealthy, I live below my means because I want to be free. I've earned financial independence and too ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What best to do with 150k cash in medical school?
Replies: 14
Views: 1249

Re: What best to do with 150k cash in medical school?

Congrats on your acceptance to medical school, and having a significantly positive net worth going in!

I agree with the others. Pay as you go. Loans from family often come with unspoken strings attached.

:beer
-PoF
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8425

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

I'm not a doctor, but someone once told me to ask an anesthesiologist for a recommendation on a surgical procedure. What do anesthesiologists know? They're in the lounge with their feet up watching TV while the CRNAs are in the OR. Seriously, the amount of time that an actual anesthesiologist is in...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?
Replies: 125
Views: 8425

Re: The Expert's Dilemma - How can I know I'm getting a good physician without being one myself?

I'm not a doctor, but someone once told me to ask an anesthesiologist for a recommendation on a surgical procedure. What do anesthesiologists know? They're in the lounge with their feet up watching TV while the CRNAs are in the OR. Seriously, the amount of time that an actual anesthesiologist is in...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BH phone review: Moto G5 Plus
Replies: 35
Views: 3001

Re: BH phone review: Moto G5 Plus

I just ordered the Moto G4 for $129.99 from B&H photo 32GB unlocked, planning to use it on Republic Wireless $20 plan with unlimited text, talk and 1 GB data. I've been using an 8GB Moto G 1st generation for 2.5 years. It's worked great, but the OS takes up too much of the 8GB and I've grown tired o...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule and timing
Replies: 16
Views: 2315

Re: 4% rule and timing

If you believe in the 4% SWR, then you should also believe Once Financially Independent, Always Financially Independent. In other words, they should both be OK. The biggest difference between these two is the fact that it's much easier to continue working than to change course and find a new job aft...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Often Do you make a Back-Door Roth Conversion
Replies: 29
Views: 2487

Re: How Often Do you make a Back-Door Roth Conversion

Early January every year for both my wife and me. I make a non-deductible contribution to an IRA to a money market fund one day and convert to Roth the following day. Step by step instructions with screenshots (Vanguard) . :beer -PoF This. gasdoc I can no longer do that, in retirement. I have made ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Often Do you make a Back-Door Roth Conversion
Replies: 29
Views: 2487

Re: How Often Do you make a Back-Door Roth Conversion

Early January every year for both my wife and me.

I make a non-deductible contribution to an IRA to a money market fund one day and convert to Roth the following day. Step by step instructions with screenshots (Vanguard).

:beer
-PoF
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?
Replies: 31
Views: 2227

Re: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?

What is the difference between your marginal rate this year and your marginal rate most years? Just because the absolute tax amount is higher this year, it may not save you more to pull-forward future donations if the marginal rates aren't all that different. Keep in mind that by investing the mone...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?
Replies: 31
Views: 2227

Re: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?

The Pease provision applies, but that's really just a surtax on high earners disguised as a limit on deductions, so I wouldn't worry about it. Whether it is a surtax or a limit on deductions, are you saying that there is no chance he could avoid it (or at least some) by deferring some until another...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 165
Views: 15444

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]

Avg income over 11+ year career: $400K Current assets: ~ $2.5M + paid off property & funded 529 Plans (~ $90K each). FI number: $1.75M I've exceeded my original FI number, but there are some good reasons to keep working once you're mathematically FI. I am dropping to part-time in 11 days, though. :b...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?
Replies: 31
Views: 2227

Re: Donor Advised Fund: Am I thinking about this correctly?

Yes, you are thinking correctly, and there's no better time to do this. I applaud your charitable aspirations. As others have stated, you will see a huge tax break, and as long as you're not donating 30% or more, your deduction should be equal to the donation. The Pease provision applies, but that's...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is FI if you love your job? [Financial Independence]
Replies: 68
Views: 5641

Re: What is FI if you love your job? [Financial Independence]

Isn't there a healthy medium? I recently spent some time with a truly wonderful couple -- I can tell you that they never adopted a FI lifestyle, and did many of the things that Stanley would scold them about in his book -- designer clothes, second homes, etc. But they both had high paying jobs and ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Top 5 Ways to Manage Your Money"
Replies: 8
Views: 3667

Re: "Top 5 Ways to Manage Your Money"

Bogleheads: The Physician on Fire website has an article about different ways to manage our money. ... Top 5 Ways to Manage Your Money Best wishes. Taylor Thanks, Taylor. That is excellent. I also followed these two links (given in the above) for more equally excellent writings ... https://www.phys...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you do in slow travels?
Replies: 55
Views: 4344

Re: What do you do in slow travels?

In a city? I try to get out. Out of the city. On a recent trip, I went canoeing, hiking, and cycling. Days on end of each. I only spent 2 nights in the same hotel and many nights in a tent. One can only eat a few times a day and drink so much coffee and alcohol, so after museums and attractions, th...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how often does high ACT score == scholarship?
Replies: 85
Views: 4899

Re: how often does high ACT score == scholarship?

UW - Madison is a great school, which is tough for me to admit. I would think a 35 ACT and solid if not off-the-charts GPA would land a solid merit scholarship. I had a 34 ACT with >4.0 GPA (A's in AP classes counted 5.0) and that was good enough for a full-tuition scholarship at your border rival, ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3760

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

As others have pointed out, you can indirectly spend your bonds despite their location in a tax-advantaged account. Sell stock in taxable while simultaneously exchanging bonds for stocks in the IRA. If you're selling stocks at a loss compared to your cost basis, be sure you're not buying a substanti...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An easy-to-understand withdrawal plan for comments
Replies: 9
Views: 860

Re: An easy-to-understand withdrawal plan for comments

I think you can retire comfortably given your net worth and anticipated annual spending -- my numbers are nearly identical. I'm not sure I would recommend spending down the bonds, and would definitely not call your portfolio conservative. 80 / 20 is rather aggressive at age 55, and you have a glidep...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 plan and first child on the way
Replies: 11
Views: 843

Re: 529 plan and first child on the way

I have read that NY has a great plan with some of the lowest costs out there. You can also score a state (but not federal) tax deduction for up to $10,000 a year invested in a NY 529 plan as a NY resident. Jack makes a good point, though. Be sure you prioritize saving for retirement, getting any ava...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall: Buy or wait?
Replies: 31
Views: 3742

Re: Windfall: Buy or wait?

Waiting, as you suggested, is market timing -- an activity generally frowned upon here. In hindsight, we may find out that waiting would have been a better option, but we can't know that ahead of time. I like this article on investing in peak markets for perspective. Your options are to invest as a ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carryover losses & short-term versus long-term capital gains
Replies: 5
Views: 541

Re: Carryover losses & short-term versus long-term capital gains

Thank you for the actionable information, my friends.

:beer
-PoF
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carryover losses & short-term versus long-term capital gains
Replies: 5
Views: 541

Carryover losses & short-term versus long-term capital gains

In 2016, I was able to tax-loss harvest quite a bit, racking up ~ $45,000 in paper losses -- $39,000 short-term losses, $6,000 long-term. I took the allowable $3,000 against income, and the remaining $42,000 are carryover losses. I am now looking at possibly taking some capital gains to free up mone...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: depleting accounts in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 5188

Re: depleting accounts in retirement

You may be in a position to convert some of that tIRA to Roth IRA to fill up low tax brackets before RMDs become mandatory at 70.5. As far as where you own bonds, you can "spend your bond money" indirectly even if it's tucked away in the IRA. Sell stocks from taxable, exchange an equal amount of bon...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Last 80 minutes of my career
Replies: 64
Views: 10690

Re: Last 80 minutes of my career

Congratulations, bikechuck! 45 years is nothing to sneeze at.

Now hop on that bike and ride!

:beer
-PoF
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "My Favorite Mutual Fund"
Replies: 11
Views: 1822

Re: "My Favorite Mutual Fund"

Bogleheads: Has he really retired? That is new. I thought he was part time, doing the "best of both". RM Pert time is corrrect. He has reduced his workload from full-time to 0.75 FTE (from 16 ER shifts to 12 per month). I would not be surprised to see him cut back further to half-time in another ye...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No "sequence of returns risk" what to do about withdrawals
Replies: 35
Views: 3070

Re: No "sequence of returns risk" what to do about withdrawals

If we're talking about the percentage of the portfolio you had six years ago, it might make sense that you could be OK withdrawing a bit more than 4% of that. If you're talking about your current portfolio, with the recent bull run and historically high valuations, I would definitely not recommend w...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio from Scratch
Replies: 10
Views: 1161

Re: Portfolio from Scratch

With those tax rates, you want to defer as much tax as humanly possible. Do you have access to an HSA? If yes, max it out. How much student loan debt do you have? Have your refinanced? Is PSLF an option? You don't necessarily have to choose between a taxable account and student loan payoff. You may ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly married, new doc, new investor and new Boglehead in search of advice
Replies: 18
Views: 2134

Re: Newly married, new doc, new investor and new Boglehead in search of advice

Congrats on getting your life started, your great combined income at such a young age, and for find the Bogleheads! I agree with the others on learning to DIY your investing -- you appear to be well on your way to being able to ditch the "money man." Keep reading WCI -- you'll see posts of mine ther...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Income Earner Humbly Seeks Advice
Replies: 81
Views: 14120

Re: High Income Earner Humbly Seeks Advice

Once you donate those appreciated shares to the DAF, that is your charitable donation for the sake of tax purposes Once in the DAF, you can then keep that 'money' invested. You do not need to do any 'selling' yourself Literally the DAF will continue to increase in value because it's a new investmen...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?
Replies: 228
Views: 27568

Re: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?

The blogger at Root of Good is an Early Retiree who discusses his family's healthcare costs in great detail. Here is a recent post: http://rootofgood.com/december-2016-financial-update/ Basically, they control their income to be just over the poverty line for maximum ACA subsidies so they pay very ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 3701

Re: Early retirement

Early Retirement Now has a fantastic 16-part series on Safe Withdrawal Rates . He has concluded that 3.25% to 3.5% is a safe withdrawal rate for up to a 60-year retirement. @snuffycuts99 I would make sure some of the money that you have available in invested in a "safe" manner that is less subject t...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Sun Jun 11, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasible path to early retirement?
Replies: 18
Views: 2180

Re: Feasible path to early retirement?

Dear Bogleheads, 2) In my 457 account there is no employer match. Should we even be contributing to that account at all since my desire is to be able to retire in ten years if needed? It would be a shame to have large retirement accounts but none that I can access at age 43 if I become disabled. On...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood
Replies: 74
Views: 5331

Re: (Very) Early Retirement vs Parenthood

With a $2 million dollar net worth, you can afford to have kids and retire early and do both in the immediate future. You're contemplating a huge decision, and I wouldn't take money into consideration at all. Remove the monetary factor and decide whether or not you want to spend the next 20 years ra...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Three years into retirement… Need a good read
Replies: 12
Views: 2154

Re: Three years into retirement… Need a good read

Have you read The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning ? If you have more specific questions, ask away. Regarding cash on hand, there is an opportunity cost to a larger allocation that tends to outweighs the benefit of having it around to spend when markets drop, but keep as much as you need to ...
by PhysicianOnFIRE
Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Michigan Education Trust
Replies: 10
Views: 825

Re: Michigan Education Trust

It's been years since I looked into it, but I chose the MESP (traditional 529) instead for the flexibility. MET would have been the better option if we were confident our infant children would attend a state school in Michigan. We don't even live their anymore, and even if we did, who's to say that...