Search found 86 matches

by le_sacre
Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA - LastPass breach!
Replies: 718
Views: 65076

Re: PSA - LastPass breach!

Just in case anyone missed it, since at a glance I didn't see the ultimate TLDR: If you are a LastPass user... You absolutely need to: make sure 2fa is enabled on all sensitive accounts You really really should: change every sensitive account's password And if you are still using LastPass and thus storing these updated passwords: change your LastPass master password check your iterations setting (otherwise, hackers who have cracked your old master password could attempt to login and get access to all those new passwords you just updated) I just post this because I've been seeing advice like "just changing your master password won't help, you need to change all your individual account passwords", which is true... but could leave pe...
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge unreachable? No 2fa received, calls fail...
Replies: 4
Views: 401

Re: Merrill Edge unreachable? No 2fa received, calls fail...

Real number. But it turns out the problem was with my phone service (Verizon prepaid, iPhone). I was not able to receive or send any texts or calls.

Restarted my phone, and the entire backlog of SMS 2fa messages flooded in. :oops:

Thanks!
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 05, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge unreachable? No 2fa received, calls fail...
Replies: 4
Views: 401

Merrill Edge unreachable? No 2fa received, calls fail...

[Edit to add a PSA: if you're not receiving 2fa codes, try restarting your phone first!] Anyone able to log in to their self-directed Merrill Edge accounts today? I got an email account alert of credit posted (not sure why, but not inherently suspicious) so I tried to log in. Over a couple hours of trying, I never received any of the 2fa codes sent via text or voice, though the last 4 of the phone number shown still matches my number. Now I'm locked out from the repeated attempts, but I've repeatedly tried two different customer service numbers (suggested by the iOS ME app screen and the ME desktop site), and the connection just drops with the error "Call failed". I searched twitter and news and it doesn't seem like a big outage i...
by le_sacre
Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Billpay via bank - how often does it fail?
Replies: 60
Views: 3966

Re: Billpay via bank - how often does it fail?

I use it for nearly everything and have enjoyed good peace of mind not worrying about forgetting something. But there can be some gotchas. Recently I had an experience with BofA where my long-unused checking account with them was closed automatically for inactivity, but this also wiped out my settings in my BofA "Payment Center" where I had autopay set up to pay BofA credit card bills from my external Ally checking. Unfortunately I didn't notice until the payments were already late. They were nice enough to refund the penalty and interest charges over the phone. If your setup is simpler (not including random dormant checking accounts), that sort of thing isn't likely to come up. But it's always a good idea to set up email alerts a...
by le_sacre
Thu May 06, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k plan termination, no new 401k available, keep ability to do backdoor Roth?
Replies: 12
Views: 1149

Re: 401k plan termination, no new 401k available, keep ability to do backdoor Roth?

Thanks so much for the replies, all! I really love this community. I received an email notice from the provider (Guideline) of the plan termination, without any accompanying documentation. It looks like there will be an "entire plan review", after which the distributions will be processed, but there's no indication of how long that will take. So I gather that I may have more time than I originally thought, so I will wait and see for now... Hopefully by the time I must take action, I'll have a better rollover option available. I don't have any side income (apart from dividends in my taxable), so I don't think a solo 401k will work. I feel like startup employees ought to be made more aware of the possibility of this scenario. It rea...
by le_sacre
Wed May 05, 2021 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k plan termination, no new 401k available, keep ability to do backdoor Roth?
Replies: 12
Views: 1149

401k plan termination, no new 401k available, keep ability to do backdoor Roth?

My small company has terminated its 401k plan (at Guideline). I have close to 3 years of maxed contributions in it, about 65% pre-tax and 35% Roth. I'm 41, single (engaged), in the 24% tax bracket, living in California. I haven't been told a timeframe of when the funds must be disbursed, but I consider it extremely unlikely that I'll have another, new 401k available to rollover into in time. I have a 401k from a previous employer, provided by Fidelity, that I have kept there. But it seems that I can't rollover any new funds into it since I am no longer employed there — I found at least one report here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1873913#p1873913 of someone who was able to roll over into a former employer's 401k at TIAA-...
by le_sacre
Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block PSA: individual HSA reporting missed in interview
Replies: 5
Views: 560

Re: H&R Block PSA: individual HSA reporting missed in interview

livesoft wrote: Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:55 pm HRBlock Deluxe download did our HSAs just fine and produced the two Form 8889 needed. I did the interview thing in the program.
Most likely it was my own error, but I ordinarily wouldn't miss something like that. Figured it was worth mentioning here.

I have installed updates to the software since I did my first run-through; perhaps the version I initially went through had the question more buried.
by le_sacre
Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block PSA: individual HSA reporting missed in interview
Replies: 5
Views: 560

H&R Block PSA: individual HSA reporting missed in interview

I thought I had completed my 2020 taxes, using H&R Block Deluxe + State, had gone through the whole interview and recommended review items. I owed extra so haven't filed yet. On a whim I opened it back up today and directly searched for the HSA portion of the interview, which is when I discovered that my individual (non-employer) maxed contribution to my HSA had not been entered as a deduction for my federal income adjustment. That's a substantial drop in my tax bill that the standard interview somehow missed. Oddly, it did ask me about HSA details in my California return (since CA is one of the oddball states that doesn't recognize the HSA tax benefits), so the program should have known better on the federal side, IMO. I went back and ...
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For Boglehead California residents in high tax brackets what bond fund do you use in your taxable account ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2448

Re: For Boglehead California residents in high tax brackets what bond fund do you use in your taxable account ?

I have accounts at Fidelity and Merrill, and hold CMF in taxable. I don't have a good enough understanding of the bond market to defend its merits over others... if I had a Vanguard account I would probably use one of their funds instead, but outside Vanguard, CMF looked like my best bet. When I have inquired about it here I have generally heard positive responses. It did surprise me how it rapidly lost (and then regained) so much value in the Covid Crash, which complicated my intention to think of it partially as part of my emergency fund. But I gathered that was somewhat of an artifactual trough (TBH I forget why!) so as long as I don't need all of my EF all at once I figure if that recurs I can draw from FDIC-backed portions while giving...
by le_sacre
Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 747
Views: 54714

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

There is no way that this breakthrough is already "priced in". It hasn't even been made yet. X wasn't even founded yet. What we do know about X is that it's likely to be founded in the US, because: The US has more advanced research institutes and leading researchers than all other countries combined. The US capital market is far more effective than any other market in allocating Venture Capital to ensure X can realize its vision. The US regulatory climate is favorable to the development and success of X. Hence: The value X will add is not yet priced in. When X is founded and goes public, it will very likely be founded in the US, and its value will be thus captured by holders of US indexes. I think you're not following the logic a...
by le_sacre
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 16078

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Krugman said today it's that
  • bond yields are so poor that investors are driven to stocks
  • long term economic forecast is good enough that investors are willing to take at least some risk
by le_sacre
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 71
Views: 9047

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

REITs are quite tax-inefficient, no? Are you sure about holding them in taxable space?
Massdriver wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:39 pm I use REET for my REIT allocation as well. I tax loss harvested VNQ/VNQI during this downturn and grabbed it.
by le_sacre
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax lost harvest gone wrong - down 14% - advice
Replies: 31
Views: 3208

Re: Tax lost harvest gone wrong - down 14% - advice

simpleidiot wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:07 pm Check out this awesome decision matrix user "oneleaf" created on page 3 of this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=311002&start=100
Moderator moved those posts to a new thread and the matrix is now here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=311386#p5172927
by le_sacre
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2770

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:44 pm Investing isn't about certainties; it's about the likelihood of various outcomes (e.g. expected value).
So your claim here is that you're not certain... but you are certain the market is not certain enough about lower-than-expected future growth? I don't see any support for (what I see as) your assertion that the market has failed to price in the risk given publicly available information, but maybe I've misapprehended your point.
by le_sacre
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts
Replies: 24
Views: 2770

Re: Weekly unemployment claims - releasing Thursday 3/26 - Forecasts

The Coronavirus was all over the news when it was in China, but apparently Mr. Market believed that China could completely contain a virus, even after it spread to Italy and was infecting people left and right. :oops: It's trivially easy to call Mr. Market wrong about a risk assessment after the outcome has obtained. Mr. Market may have been remembering previous viral outbreaks that were contained and did not become pandemics, and considered a risk (rather than certainty) that this would turn out worse. If you're so certain, then the only rational position is to be shorting the market, right? Or maybe you're not actually certain what will happen, and therefore roughly in agreement with the market by maintaining a long-equities position wit...
by le_sacre
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 24105

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Sounds foolhardy to me, essentially you're arguing against efficient markets, which means you know something that millions of others don't. From my perspective, the worst case scenario is already common knowledge - millions unemployed, millions dead, economy temporarily ground to a halt (maybe up to a year). This is the point that I hear a lot of lay public investors missing (those with the curse: "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing"). Some can make money betting on the irrationality of markets, but it's either (often) luck, or the result of a lot more expertise than the lay public conceives of--and there's the associated survivorship bias / bias to hearing much more often about successes than about failures. I suspect peopl...
by le_sacre
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 11520

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Sorry for infuriating you, it's not going to change my mind. Take it with the other 60% of the population. In my mind vaccines have a risk, be it very minor. I am one of the very few people who spent 2 weeks, a Christmas and a New Years Eve in a hospital after getting polio from polio vaccine. I am not going to have a vaccine for a disease with a risk I perceive as smaller than the risk of the vaccine itself. My god, what is it that makes people think it's acceptable to simply declare "you're not going to change my mind"? That's so anathema to me as a thinking person. How do you maintain any confidence that you're making correct decisions if you've already decided to ignore any further input? Sorry you got a raw deal with the pol...
by le_sacre
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened with California munis today?
Replies: 3
Views: 742

What happened with California munis today?

Can anyone explain what happened with California munis intraday today? I don't understand bonds very well, and couldn't find any news that would seem to explain this rapid upward swing at the end of the day:

Image

Thanks for any guesses or insight!
by le_sacre
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 11520

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

SARS? What about flu? vaccine has only ~50% rate of success... This is why I never had one. You absolutely should get the flu vaccine every year. It is ignorance, failure to think probabilistically, and negligent neglect of your likelihood to pass the flu to more vulnerable populations that stops people from doing it. No, it is not. It's paranoia. I grew up in a country where flu was not an excuse to miss school. It's kind of late to change my mind. Only about 40% of Americans get the flu vaccine and most other countries are in single digits, so I am not going to change the world regardless. "Probabilistic thinking" brought us on the brink of economic suicide. The crash of economies from panic has the chance to kill more people t...
by le_sacre
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 11520

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Starfish wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:37 am SARS? What about flu? vaccine has only ~50% rate of success... This is why I never had one.
You absolutely should get the flu vaccine every year. It is ignorance, failure to think probabilistically, and negligent neglect of your likelihood to pass the flu to more vulnerable populations that stops people from doing it.

As for relevance to Covid-19, people who get the flu will need testing to see if it's Coronavirus (tests we can't afford to spare if avoidable), and otherwise divert medical attention/resources from the people at risk of dying or spreading the pandemic virus.

Think of others beyond yourself, listen to the experts, and do your part.
by le_sacre
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is this pandemic different than 2008?
Replies: 137
Views: 9487

Re: How is this pandemic different than 2008?

For those pondering whether people are overreacting, or the media over-hyping, here's a point I found instructive: For any public health preventive measures (really for any preventive measures of any kind), to the extent they are successful it will necessarily appear as though they were an overreaction. If Merkel warning her country of a possible 60-70% infection prevalence helps get people to comply with expert recommendations to slow the spread, it will (misleadingly) appear after the fact that everyone "overreacted". If drastic isolation measures succeed in containing the virus, they were not drastic, they were appropriate. (much like if stock returns turn out better than bonds, that doesn't mean it was a mistake to hold bonds)...
by le_sacre
Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Traditional and Roth 401k combined account
Replies: 34
Views: 2518

Re: Traditional and Roth 401k combined account

In Fidelity's netbenefits, you can see "source" and select investments by source when you rebalance. I want to ask a question but it seems like everything is so circumstance-dependent, I can't ask it intelligently without providing some detail. So here we go... I have a small 401k from a former employer, also administered through Fidelity NetBenefits, but apparently my plan just doesn't permit different allocations among the different sources. It's split about 40% Roth, 60% tax deferred. This account is where I hold bonds--will soon be increasing my bond allocation in this account to 100%, since it's small compared to my taxable account. My current employer has a 401k which similarly forces the same allocation regardless of Roth/...
by le_sacre
Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cybersecurity and passwords
Replies: 167
Views: 14982

Re: Cybersecurity and passwords

Dakotah wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:52 pm
CFM300 wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:39 pm I think you meant: correct horse staple battery :D
I hate the fact that I immediately know this reference. :D
Really? I love that fact. :D
by le_sacre
Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cybersecurity and passwords
Replies: 167
Views: 14982

Re: Cybersecurity and passwords

Whatever you do, don't use LastPass, it has a poor security track record. Personally I think this concern about LastPass is overblown. The only vulnerabilities I'm aware of (which have since been patched) could only have affected you if you actively navigated to malicious websites. And because it's the most popular password manager (since the free version is so full-featured), vulnerabilities would tend to be caught and fixed rapidly. Lastly, for the most sensitive services like banking/brokerages, even if someone does get your password you are protected with 2FA (or else if they don't offer that, you should definitely stop being their customer!). I'm pretty security-minded and IT-savvy, and have been happily using LastPass (free) for year...
by le_sacre
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 - Does the Olympic Games Influence the Stock Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 734

Re: 2020 - Does the Olympic Games Influence the Stock Market?

As JoMoney said, ...If you expect to use the news to guide your investments, I would reassess whether or not you're really cut out to be a "passive" investor... I would also reassess what gives you confidence that your take on the news (public information) will give you an advantage over the rest of the market. To the extent there are logically predictable effects of the Olympics or other events on markets, this will already be priced in before you get a chance to profit from it. And to the extent there are less-than-logical hunches about these effects, the gamble you take on those effects actually coming to fruition is one that others also take into account: people who are more confident bid stock prices one way, and people who a...
by le_sacre
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?
Replies: 139
Views: 14301

Re: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?

I only somewhat recently added bonds to my AA, and more recently than that started creeping my bond allocation up (currently a little over 11%). With this, I'm re-evaluating a bit how important it is for me to have a large cash ER. But I do like chasing some bonuses and risk-free high interest options (though I'm not willing to jump through required-number-of-debit-transactions hoops). I've got: three Netspend accounts earning 5% on $1000 each $1000 at Digital Credit Union earning 6% $5000 at Mango earning 6% (though effectively less since I have to deposit $800/mo to get that rate, with the excess earning nothing) $5000 at Patelco Credit Union earning 2.4% (tiered) the rest at Ally ready to deploy for banking sign-up bonuses (latest one I ...
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge customer service... What on earth?
Replies: 2
Views: 3240

Re: Merrill Edge customer service... What on earth?

Thanks for that. That's a bit odd, then... When I applied for the new account it had me log in to my existing Bank of America and it pre-populated most of my info. But then at the end it asked me to create a new login. Now, my original login still just shows my pre-existing checking, savings, and credit card (no Merrill Edge), and my new login doesn't work.

:oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: I quintuple-checked I was dialing the right number. Each one of those times, I swapped the same two digits. This is why I like to do things online. Yikes.
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge customer service... What on earth?
Replies: 2
Views: 3240

Merrill Edge customer service... What on earth?

TL;DR: What's up with Merrill's customer service? Is it basically non-functional? I opened a new Merrill Edge self-directed Cash Management Account a couple days ago. Everything seemed fine with the application, and I was able to set up a username and password. But that doesn't work to log in. And after my application was processed, I never got a confirmation email or anything. Maybe I'm impatient (perhaps I'm meant to wait to receive something in the postal mail?) but I figured I'd check to make sure there was no problem with the application. I applied with the promo for a brokerage bonus that requires minimum funding within 45 days of opening, so I want to know when that clock starts ticking. So I try the live chat function on the same pa...
by le_sacre
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Right questions to ask before joining a start up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1925

Re: Right questions to ask before joining a start up?

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:25 am ...usually a start-up will give you options rather than shares, so they don't have to offer to pay the income tax on shares (and reduce the amount they give you).
FYI, both startups I've been involved in have granted shares (on a vesting schedule) using an 83b election to basically pre-pay the income tax on the value of all the shares (including unvested) at the current valuation. This is probably only appropriate when it's very early so the current valuation is minimal. If you do this it's very important to follow all the instructions and filing deadlines diligently.
by le_sacre
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Right questions to ask before joining a start up?
Replies: 16
Views: 1925

Re: Right questions to ask before joining a start up?

Great advice from everyone. I was super naive when hired as 1st employee and did not learn what fraction of the company my shares represented; like with salary negotiation, social pressure may be applied to discourage you asking tough questions, and you must resist that. Another thing I'd add is--like with investing--make a plan in advance and try to stick to it. In my case, we ran out of money and stopped making payroll. Multiple times. Each time, it was a surprise to the employees. We were a pretty scrappy team and loved our product so we worked unpaid--some of us longer than others. There can be a lot of pressure to do that when the situation is sprung on you: loyalty, sunk cost fallacy, inertia. Friends outside startup-land would say: &...
by le_sacre
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano advice
Replies: 9
Views: 877

Re: Piano advice

rjbraun wrote: Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:27 pm I suggest you pose the question on Piano World and seek input there as well.
Funny, Piano World and Bogleheads are the two forums I tend to visit near-daily. :) It's a fantastic resource for piano knowledge.
by le_sacre
Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity zero-fee index fund questions
Replies: 18
Views: 4901

Re: Fidelity zero-fee index fund questions

Without having a good memory for the details, I nonetheless became convinced recently that in taxable, an ETF like ITOT is preferable to FSKAX because it's more tax efficient, and inferred that that would likely also swamp the small difference in ER between FSKAX and FZROX.

See this thread: viewtopic.php?t=268104
by le_sacre
Wed May 15, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 7533

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

I'm afraid I didn't read the whole thread, but skimming through it looks like no one has mentioned this sort of news coverage: https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20190301/FREE/190309986/one-of-wall-streets-most-popular-trading-strategies-is-failing Quantitative hedge funds used to do very well by offering a trend-following strategy, but they have recently moved away from it as an industry. In my opinion, this is not a reactionary move because of recent underperformance, but a loss of confidence (among very smart people who made buckets of money this way for decades) that this algorithmic strategy has survived into the current epoch of markets. Behavioral strategies that used to work great by betting on the aggregate behavior of crowds o...
by le_sacre
Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for type of "personalty" test, etc.??
Replies: 25
Views: 1905

Re: Looking for type of "personalty" test, etc.??

Another domain expert chiming in: yes, the Five Factor model is the one grounded in decades of rigorous research (recent failure-to-replicate crises in social psychology notwithstanding). Most others are good only for their entertainment value, like lottery tickets. The exception being the extent to which they partially duplicate one of the five factors, like Myers-Briggs does by including Extroversion... But the marketing genius of Myers-Briggs was dividing each of its four scales into "either or" labels, producing 16 easy-to-remember, easy-to-share "types", and this is what especially makes it garbage for any real-world relevance: personality factors, like most basic aspects of human behavior/performance/preference, te...
by le_sacre
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4684505

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Maybe in the future I'll refrain from TLH-ing on Fridays...

It's funny how whenever I read a doom-and-gloom "this time feels different" comment it's from a forum member with a low number of posts. It's a good idea to look to the wisdom of people who've been here a while. Amazing how rapidly people got used to the eerily low-volatility growth of 2017 and apparently forgot what normal market movement looks like.
by le_sacre
Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 621
Views: 84723

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

Here's the reply I received by secure message when asking whether continuing to use my account as normal to receive paychecks and pay bills would reduce the bonus amount: The account may still be used as per usual, without affecting the cashback bonus. As long as the initial deposit of $••••• remains within Ally Bank until 01/15/2018. The funds may be internally transferred between your separate Ally Bank accounts without impacting the bonus, however transferred of funds outside of Ally or a withdrawal of funds may cause fluctuations to your bonus amount. You may view the full terms and conditions of the promotion at: www.allypaybacktime.com/rules. I'm reasonably but not 100% confident that the bonus amount will only be reduced if at any ti...
by le_sacre
Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy-And-Hold vs Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Re: Buy-And-Hold vs Tax Loss Harvesting

I hope and am sure someone will correct me if I'm mistaken, but I think most BHs advocate TLH by using the proceeds from the sale to immediately purchase another security that is not "substantially identical", but is most likely part of a common TLH pair (e.g., two index funds that track similar but not identical indices, like total US market and S&P500).

Thus, you are never out of the market (i.e. you are still holding), but have harvested a capital loss that is useful at tax time.
by le_sacre
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 621
Views: 84723

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

It's kind of crazy the amount of time numerous people have spent scrutinizing the offer language and chatting at length with CSRs. I wonder how much the lack of clarity is costing Ally in customer service costs. And the more time I have spent trying to figure out what's worth it (e.g., should I break this CD?), the less worthwhile it seems.

(But I'm probably going to break the CD anyway... If the bonus actually works then my mental accounting is excited to call that getting to break and rate-chase with a discount on the early withdrawal penalty)
by le_sacre
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH FSGDX -> FZILX (or FTIPX) today?
Replies: 1
Views: 446

TLH FSGDX -> FZILX (or FTIPX) today?

I always feel like there's something I don't know I don't know about tax loss harvesting... Seeing as I have a loss on all my lots of FSGDX (which I think tracks FTSE all-world ex-US large cap), including on shares purchased just last week, I'm thinking about today selling all my FSGDX to buy FZILX (the new 0% ER total international fund). 1) Since it's not a huge absolute loss, should I (would you) wait and see what happens? 2) Any reason to TLH into FTIPX instead (MSCI All Country World Index ex USA index) instead of FZILX (Fidelity's proprietary index)? 3) If I go ahead with FZILX and then incur another substantial loss within the next month, any wash-sale problem with immediately TLH again by selling all the FZILX to buy FTIPX? 4) Am I ...
by le_sacre
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 143037

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I wonder whether some of the vigorous argument over this stems from people confusing two questions: Will international over the next decade do as well as the US did over the last decade? Will US over the next decade do as well as the US did over the last decade? It seems like a lot of the smart money is betting recent US performance has been anomalously good, and thus the answer to both questions is no. But maybe people are answering the first question with clear eyes but still assuming in some sense that recent US performance will continue. This naturally translates into thinking that INT will underperform US. It does seem un-BH to make AA decisions based on which of two options will be *better than the other*. Shouldn't the approach be to...
by le_sacre
Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning a trip to France in June 2019 - ADvice ?
Replies: 28
Views: 2727

Re: Planning a trip to France in June 2019 - ADvice ?

The Carrieres des Lumieres (in the southeast, in Provence) were one of the most remarkable and unique sights I've ever experienced. Hard to describe, so if you read the description and are on the fence about it, then definitely go.
by le_sacre
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High Crypto Allocation
Replies: 39
Views: 4655

Re: High Crypto Allocation

Pretty simple, isn't it? As with any volatile asset, deliberately set aside your hopeful feelings, best-case-scenario daydreaming, and enthusiasm, and ask: What would I feel like if this asset went to zero? That's a pretty clear argument against going to 100% of your NW--no matter how unlikely you consider crypto going to zero, you have to admit there's a slim chance. If that unlikely event would wipe you out absolutely and drastically alter your life plan, the expected value of your mental state is pretty dismal regardless of the low probability. For 20%, it depends on how much loss aversion you have, how much time and earning potential you have to rebuild, etc. But I think the most practical way to evaluate is to imagine (in as concrete a...
by le_sacre
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?
Replies: 106
Views: 10354

Re: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?

OP, it sounds like this might be slightly under your price range, but a couple years ago I was in a similar position of shopping to upgrade from a cheap cello (our intensely respected local repair guy once tried to dissuade me from spending any money on it even to glue a seam shut) to a "real" instrument. I did a fair amount of research and trials, and concluded that at least for cellos, there's an excellent bang-for-your-buck value in the L'ancienne line made by Jay Haide. It seemed to me like the price point was an elbow in a graph of the diminishing returns, and instrument a clear step above others at that price. YMMV! But I've been very satisfied. Unless market returns are a lot more generous than I'm planning on, it may well ...
by le_sacre
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid cell phone plan vs Regular Contract Plan
Replies: 30
Views: 4093

Re: Prepaid cell phone plan vs Regular Contract Plan

In general I find that prepaid plans are a great hiding-in-plain-sight opportunity to cut costs. The main thing to consider is which cell tower network the plan uses, and how its coverage is for your locations. I switched to Verizon (from Virgin Mobile) in order to get the phone I wanted and slightly better coverage, but they have a little-advertised prepaid plan that works just as well. It actually seems like a separate entity (e.g. regular Verizon sends me marketing to try to lure me as a customer), but it uses the same network. I pay $40/mo, and forget the details of what I get for it, but it's definitely more than enough for my data needs. Both Virgin & Verizon prepaid make it easy to set up autopay, so it's not like you have any ex...
by le_sacre
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you own just 5% of anything?
Replies: 65
Views: 6442

Re: Do you own just 5% of anything?

5% in FSRVX (REIT)
by le_sacre
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insight Card (APY 5%) full personal review
Replies: 63
Views: 9449

Re: Insight Card (APY 5%) full personal review

I logged in without issue the other day, but right now I'm not able to.
by le_sacre
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 65
Views: 10736

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

When I first acquired my positions in EM and developed markets, I wasn't thinking carefully (enough) of setting a target allocation. As such, I ended up really heavily tilted toward EM (which luckily has turned out fine). When I realized I should be more Bogleheaded about it, I decided I would gradually rebalance (toward a less extreme EM tilt) by additional contributions to developed rather than selling EM.

But even though I am still above my desired tilt, it is a bit hard to resist the temptation to buy EM now! Can't help that regret of "If only I'd set a sensible allocation from the start, I could rebalance right now and feel great about it!"
by le_sacre
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hands-free solutions
Replies: 15
Views: 1191

Re: Hands-free solutions

I know it's not what you're looking to hear, but what you've presented is a great excuse to actually do the right thing and abstain from distracted driving! https://ifsainc.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/distracted-driving.pdf My background is in cognitive science, and I have colleagues who study this sort of thing and are somewhat personally responsible for phone manufacturers starting to include distraction-minimizing "Driving Mode" in their systems. The most important take-away from the research is that humans are wretchedly bad at judging how much their attention/performance is impaired by distractions or task-switching. So if you think "I'm careful, I know my driving and I'm confident I'm not taking inappropriate risks&q...
by le_sacre
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 119
Views: 17751

Re: Very confused with the current market

It looks like this article may be helpful to you:

https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/e ... ength.html

Note it explains:
  • there's a large variance in the length of time between recessions (i.e. there's nothing like a strict "every 10 years" kind of rule)
  • Even taking into account this large uncertainty, we don't have good reasons to suspect that time until the next recession is predictable from past times between recessions
by le_sacre
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 119
Views: 17751

Re: Very confused with the current market

Let me offer an abstraction to clarify your question...
capcase wrote: Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:34 pm Please don't tell me I should not time the market.
It seems to me that what you are doing here is saying: "I was sure this thing would happen, but it hasn't. Why hasn't it happened? And don't tell me that actually no one knows when it will happen."

If you are going to reject hearing any wisdom about the folly of timing market cycles, then perhaps you can better explain the theoretical basis for your certainty that it's possible to time market cycles?