Search found 747 matches

by samsdad
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Issues with face masks?
Replies: 92
Views: 7568

Re: Issues with face masks?

Face masks do not stop people from catching coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) in light of recent studies suggesting the opposite.

The United Nations’ health body was forced to review new evidence from Hong Kong claiming mass-issuing masks may have helped contain the pandemic.

But the WHO maintains the public should not wear them outside because there is still no proof they prevent infection, it says.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/artic ... says.html
by samsdad
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7968

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

Anyone have a link to where to get the application for the exemption?
by samsdad
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How not to quote from the first page of this thread ? <snip> In the 4.5 years since Jan 2015, this strategy has mainly trailed the SP500. After the run-up this year it's back to about even with it....all while being much more volatile. Meh. Notwithstanding interest rates and their implications , in the many hours I’ve looked at this and other variations of this strategy, one of the things that stick out for me is that oftentimes this strategy would’ve lagged or zigged and zagged under or over the performance of the 500 for the first x number of years (pick a start date) before taking off and leaving the 500 in the dust . Even the OP dataset shows this from the very beginning. You would’ve zigged and zagged the 500 had you started in 1987 a...
by samsdad
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119576

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yes, yes, I was being facetious. I too think there’s a lot of miles left on this story. I got spooked with my excellent-adventure variation of my portfolio and went 100% TMF mid-morning yesterday.

Will promised he’d let me know when it was safe to jump back into equities.
by samsdad
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119576

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whew! Thank goodness that’s over. I’m calling a bottom. It’s now very apparent that the market think this virus stuff is hogwash. Onward stonks!
by samsdad
Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wells Fargo Paying $3 Billion To Settle U.S. Case Over Fraudulent Customer Accounts"
Replies: 61
Views: 5880

Re: "Wells Fargo Paying $3 Billion To Settle U.S. Case Over Fraudulent Customer Accounts"

I’m just glad they’ll be taking the fine out of the pay of the executives responsible and not passing it onto their customers in the form of higher fees over the next few years.
by samsdad
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SEC Proposing to block leveraged ETF!
Replies: 57
Views: 7153

Re: SEC Proposing to block leveraged ETF!

<snip>... • employment status (name of employer, self-employed or retired); • estimated annual income from all sources; • estimated net worth (exclusive of family residence); • estimated liquid net worth (cash, liquid securities, other); • percentage of the retail investor’s liquid net worth that he or she intends to invest in leveraged/inverse investment vehicles; and • investment experience and knowledge (e.g., number of years, size, frequency and type of transactions) regarding leveraged/inverse investment vehicles, options, stocks and bonds, commodities, and other financial instruments. Based on its evaluation of this information, the firm would be required specifically to approve or disapprove the retail investor’s account for buying ...
by samsdad
Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Death of The Stretch IRA
Replies: 153
Views: 13593

Re: The Death of The Stretch IRA

From the article: “it subjects the beneficiaries of traditional (tax-deferred) retirement plans to massive income-tax acceleration. This will be especially brutal if the beneficiaries of the inherited IRA are working and have income of their own. “. He seems to ignore that beneficiaries are getting free money that they never earned. It is a windfall. Of course, the point being made in the article is the fact that the government is forcing the inheritance to be taxed in a compressed timeframe potentially resulting in combined state and marginal income tax rates as high as 50% or more instead of what could have been much lower rates had the original IRA owner chosen to pay taxes initially and never put the money into the tIRA. :oops: Perhaps...
by samsdad
Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Death of The Stretch IRA
Replies: 153
Views: 13593

Re: The Death of The Stretch IRA

The Act is a travesty and is putting hard working IRA and retirement plan owners at an extreme disadvantage. The deal all along was that if you put money in an IRA or retirement plan, your kids would get favorable tax treatment after you die. Now, late in the game, the government is effectively saying “we changed our minds and we are changing the rules.” It’s bad news, and a betrayal of those Americans who saved for years in their retirement plans. The government made a set of laws and we relied on those laws, making major sacrifices to contribute to our IRAs and retirement plans. The legal term for this is “detrimental reliance.” Unfortunately, in this case, we can’t sue the government. All we can do is to radically change our planning to...
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 33264

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

vitaflo wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:14 am
dharrythomas wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:36 am 1. I’m not even sure this is a long term increase in tax revenue. You pull the income forward but tax a lower base. The government will see revenue sooner and I think that was the point. The law requires an impact analysis for the first decade.
That is certainly the entire point. The Gov does not want to wait upwards of 100 years (potentially) for their revenue.
<snip>
And this effect was entirely unforeseeable at the time they made these laws?

Sorry, but this is a bait and switch. Fool me once...
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 33264

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

JoeRetire wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:49 am
Spirit Rider wrote: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:45 am Maybe it is a fix for you, but it is not a welcome change for the majority of Bogleheads. They will be losing the first trust tax bracket amount of tax-free tax gain harvesting in UTMA accounts.
Do the majority of Boglehads have UTMA accounts?
Don't take this the wrong way. I'm not a Trekkie, but there is some wisdom in a movie quote; "The Needs of the Many Outweigh the Needs of the One."
May the force be with you.
I think we’ll need it. This reminds me of the guy who said “I am altering the deal; pray that I don’t alter it any further.”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jsW9MlYu31g
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 33264

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

It seems to me that those with significant tax-deferred assets (aka parents) will need to have some frank discussions with their heirs regarding the latter's tax situation to determine how attractive Roth conversions are for the parents and up to which marginal tax bracket. For instance, parents doing Roth conversions in the 24% bracket may not make sense if their heirs can likely withdraw the assets in the 12% bracket. Also, heirs may need to make some hard choices about when to withdraw inherited tax-deferred assets. Spreading out the withdrawals over 10 years helps to reduce the marginal tax rate in each year, but withdrawn assets cannot keep growing for the remainder of the 10 years. It might be preferable to wait until the end of year...
by samsdad
Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy, from all the data I’ve seen, has largely had shorter underwater periods than being 100% equities. But it’s still extremely common to be underwater for months or even years at a time. With the exception of '87, '95 & '15, yes, but since we're talking about ~6 major drawdown events, that's a 50% chance of being underwater longer. Therefore, I disagree with your assessment. Here are the drawdowns for 55/45 as compared to straight S&P 500: https://i.imgur.com/xFpbY4n.jpg What I see are moderately sharper drawdowns and generally faster recoveries. In return you get 21% CAGR since 1982 compared to 11% for the S&P. For those of you who haven't been following this from day 1, there's a big caveat to this data that's been...
by samsdad
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world
Replies: 38
Views: 4031

Re: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:12 am
boglerdude wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:14 am
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:03 am
bhsince87 wrote: Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:07 pm I also think it rendered most financial data from before 1971 almost useless. But I realize that belief is pretty controversial!
It shouldn’t be. I tend to discount data before 2008!
Because...
Helicopter money, QE, the Fed exercising emergency powers the likes of which have never before been seen...

There is a new implicit understanding by market participants post-2008 of the lengths that the central bank would go to prevent another Great Depression. And I would posit that this new understanding has been critical to equity market behavior ever since.

It’s a brave new world.
So, would you have embarked on your excellent adventure pre-2008?
by samsdad
Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 15148

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

SrGrumpy wrote: Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:41 pm SWA is the official airline of cheapskates.
I fly Frontier. Much, much cheaper than SWA. Not sure what that makes me. A boglehead? I’d fly Spirit—which I hear is cheaper—but even I have standards. You can pick your seats on Frontier too. They are hard as a brick, or about as hard as my head, but I never have a problem with finding the seat I want (the one I bought) no matter when I get on.

OP, try Frontier next time unless the flight is longer than 2 hours or you don’t mind not having any feeling in your backside for awhile.
by samsdad
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cutting the Cord & Live Television
Replies: 45
Views: 4153

Re: Cutting the Cord & Live Television

How many folks do not purchase or watch any type of live television? Do you miss it? Do you miss sports? We cut it over a year ago and don’t miss it a bit. We tuned out, and got turned on and into Hi-Fi internet radio via a network audio device (Marantz NA 6005). We listen to crystal clear streaming audio from stations around the world coming from the internet through that device which is fed into modern-day vacuum-tube amplifier that sounds so good it stays on 10-14 hours a day in the background. We listened to more music in last two years or so than we had in the previous 40. We know more about classical compositions and jazz now than we ever did. And we can airplay music from our digital collection or anything on YouTube at the drop of ...
by samsdad
Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying PG&E stock?
Replies: 64
Views: 7765

Re: Anyone buying PG&E stock?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:24 am Solar is looking better and better in PG&E territory.
In my vast daily perusal of the internet, I thought I skimmed an article a month ago or so that even the solar citizens were affected by these blackouts. It had to do with not being able to charge their EVs iirc. Maybe I’m mistaken?
______
Edit: I guess this is where I read it:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/californ ... 36244.html
It appears that batteries are needed to store the electricity, otherwise the solar power just goes to the grid.
by samsdad
Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I was using UGLD, decided to use non leveraged GLDM instead as I do not like using an ETN. Curious as to why you chose that over the other two obvious alternatives, GLD and IAU? The performance between the three are virtually identical: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&sameFees=true&symbol1=GLD&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=IAU&allocati...
by samsdad
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 133
Views: 15825

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

“Corruption drag” is what I refer to it as. Every market has it. Some have it more than others. I’m all for buying the basket of apples, as long as I can avoid the mushy red ones.

You all don’t go to the store and buy the package of strawberries that have some mold on some of them do you? You check them before buying, right? Would you buy them if they were in an opaque container that you couldn’t open? Neither would I.
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds
Replies: 68
Views: 7663

Re: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds

If you think you need a prenup, maybe you should think about marrying the lawyer that you’re hiring instead. After all, you are ostensibly trusting the lawyer to protect you more than how your future spouse might someday. Isn’t that what you’re worried about at the end of the day? Your money?

Methinks you should worry more about your judgment than your money quite frankly. If you don’t trust this person with your very life, perhaps it’s time to find someone else. Finding the right person in the world for you would be a better idea than finding the right prenup. This should be easy: there’s never been more “fish in the sea” in history. Or lawyers. :twisted:

Source: am lawyer, married to lawyer, no prenup.
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camera system to watch the nanny
Replies: 70
Views: 5717

Re: Good camera system to watch the babysitter

I get that life doesn’t give one optimum choices most of the time, but if you don’t trust the babysitter whom you are using (for what I’m assuming is no more than a few hours), wouldn’t your time be better spent finding one that you trust enough not to have to watch via camera?

We found one via our neighbors; another works at the daycare where our children go.

I have the same confusion regarding posts that ask for advice on getting a prenup fwiw. If you don’t trust the person, why are you getting into any sort of relationship with them?
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 16523

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

vineviz wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:48 pm The MSCI indexes are the most reliable data we have from 1970 to present....
Source?

And, since you sound confident in your assertion, please break down why the DMS dataset utilized by Credit Suisse for their yearbook is inferior.

I’m sure they’d be interested in getting it right; as well as anyone else who use the DMS data. It looks like it costs $3000 for access, at least according to Meb Faber https://mebfaber.com/2018/03/21/free-data-sources/. I’m sure Morningstar would be interested as well, since they distribute this dataset.
by samsdad
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 16523

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Whatever factors you think make it “special” now have made it equally “special” for the past 50 or 60 years, a period of time over which US equity returns have been effectively identical to ex-US returns and the diversification benefits of a globally diversified portfolio have been unambiguous. US equities have out-performed significantly over the last 50 years. I don't know why you keep claiming that returns have been effectively identical. Annualized real returns for US equities for 1969-2018: 5.3% Same for total world equities (including US): 4.7% Source: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/csri-summary-edition-credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2019.pdf According to pag...
by samsdad
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

rascott wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:20 pm It did in August. And TMF is not the 30 yr.... it's 20+ year... think the weighted avg is about 25 years.
Good thing it returned 35.11% in August then.
by samsdad
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)
Replies: 10
Views: 865

Re: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)

https://support.m1finance.com/hc/en-us/articles/360001464147-Your-Credit-Status-and-Maintenance-Calls I am trying to ensure I understand this correctly as it seems to be counter to my understanding that the equity portion must always be above your loan, otherwise you'll be liquidated. Example: $10,000 in equity held $3,500 borrowed (35% of $10K, max) Ratio is currently $10,000/$13,500, or 74% Equity can drop all the way to $1,500 before you reach the 30% maintenance call threshold ($1500/$4500) and then are forced to liquidate Is my example correct? So essentially the margin house is only really protecting about 43% of their loan? Your debt is $3,500. So the asset value that corresponds to the 30% maintenance call threshold is 3500/30% = $...
by samsdad
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)
Replies: 10
Views: 865

Re: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)

The margin call is subject to be higher if you are invested in more risky securities like leveraged ETFs or highly volatile stocks.
You’re not thinking of doing what I’m thinking your thinking of doing.... 8-)
by samsdad
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651384

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

lostdog wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:13 am The market hasn't gone anywhere since January of 2018. I'm always baffled when the media brings up the 10 year bull market.
Yeah, the disinformation makers have never been busier.
by samsdad
Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 17161

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Would you regret holding US only if it underperforms starting tomorrow?

“Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser...”

I don’t think I would, by the way.
by samsdad
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...
Replies: 14
Views: 3475

Re: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...

If you see price rocketing upward in a historical chart, then you can infer the possibility of price rocketing downward. These daily leveraged ETFs are not for people with weak stomachs. In fact the prospectus of a leveraged fund warns that an investor in the leveraged fund could potentially lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day . So could an investor in any individual stock. Heck, they might really unlucky and have more than one stock tank in a single day. That said, OP, I’d read the entirety of both excellent-adventure threads before embarking on your adventure. Also, recall that not all risk in life is happily contained in your investment portfolio. Slow and steady investing in TSM might not get you to ...
by samsdad
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...
Replies: 14
Views: 3475

Re: UPRO s and p 3x leverage in a brokerage account...

As a participant in a version of the excellent adventure, I’d go more towards 45 UPRO/55 TMF. As far as the tax drag of rebalancing in a taxable account, I’ll leave that math to someone who likes to do that sort of thing. You’ll want to provide your tax bracket info I’m sure.

The rebalancing frequency over at the excellent adventure is based on the fact that quarterly rebalancing work(ed) best since the OP data set started (1986ish). That said, after the tax drag of your situation, an annual rebalancing might better suit you after all is said and done.

There’s a second thread (part 2) of the excellent adventure here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192. You might get more responses there.
by samsdad
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?
Replies: 16
Views: 1632

Re: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?

Godot wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:44 pm A.The US does not have a free market economy.
“Estragon: we lost our rights?
Vladimir: we got rid of them.”
― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
B. Hard to see how this thread will survive moderators.
“Vladimir: That passed the time.
Estragon: It would have passed in any case.
Vladimir: Yes, but not so rapidly.”
― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
by samsdad
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?
Replies: 16
Views: 1632

Re: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?

I agree with The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit: [O]n March 15, 2018—The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, based in New Orleans, vacated the fiduciary rule in a 2-to-1 decision, saying it constituted "unreasonableness," and that the DOL's implementation of the rule constitutes "an arbitrary and capricious exercise of administrative power." Investopedia's entry on the fiduciary rule You're looking for some stranger (here, Fidelity) to look out for your best interest. I think that is simply naive. It's one thing to expect that they execute a trade just as you've asked, etc., and it's wholly another to expect them to look after your best interest. Fiduciary is a much higher level of accountability than t...
by samsdad
Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"
Replies: 35
Views: 5174

Re: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"

Didn’t we just have a thread that showed that lump-summing was better than DCAing, even if it meant lump-summing a much more bond-heavy AA, or did I just imagine that?
by samsdad
Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I do know the correlation with the other 2 is near zero and has done well when the other two have not. Personally I’ve been surprised at the total write off of about half the history of your backtests. I agree with this. Gold makes sense in a strategy which leans on LT bonds, with real interest rates this low. What about GDXJ vs UGLD? or maybe both. Caution: UGLD is an ETN, not an ETF. I would appreciate additional thoughts on gold in general as a TMF substitute, however. FRED has spot gold pricing back to 1968 that can be easily downloaded into PV. However, gold price simulation before 1975 seems rather pointless, as I understand that private ownership above a de minimus amount was only allowed from that year onwards after the law changed...
by samsdad
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 789

Re: Potential excess ROTH

Thanks again to all of you!
by samsdad
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 789

Re: Potential excess ROTH

Thank you very much Alan for taking your time to answer my questions. I truly appreciate your assistance. I have a couple of follow ups, if you wouldn't mind sharing a little more of your time. ... There are obviously several moving parts here, the main one being your modified AGI, but there are others such as the % of gain on your Roth contribution, and what the prospects are for you to eventually roll your pre tax TIRA balance into your employer plan. Does your employer offer a 401k or similar plan you can enroll in, and if they do does that plan accept rollovers from TIRA accounts. Once this info is known you can decide on how to proceed. I was thinking of opening a SIMPLE IRA at my business, but haven't done so yet (I actually recently ...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 789

Potential excess ROTH

I need advice on what to do. I've been contributing to my newly opened (2019) Roth throughout the year thinking that DW and I were going to be under the income phaseout/cutoff. Turns out we might be over, if my small business gets a big order in the next few months (looks increasingly likely). To make matters worse, I converted 10,453.52 from my tIRA to my Roth earlier this year (that's how confident I was that we were going to be well under the phaseout/cutoff). Given the above, I've stopped all contributions to my Roth pending what comes up in my business. Let's assume I go over the income limit (great problem to have I suppose). To avoid the excess contributions tax: withdraw the excess contributions from your IRA by the due date of your...
by samsdad
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 8568

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

Back in the original HF-excellent-adventure thread, I posted this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=272007&p=4407878&hilit=stunning#p4407878 In that post I quote from a paper that can be found here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426614000703?via%3Dihub Some quotes from that post (and the paper, all emphasis mine): (samsdad) What is news to me is that apparently the warning about volatility decay (no matter the market conditions) that I've seen beaten to death in other threads, and to a lesser extent here; and the fundamental idea that holding these for more than a few days is dangerous is ostensibly not supported by data from the entire history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average sta...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 661

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

Does this mean that after two years, any additional monies that are deposited into the SIMPLE can immediately be transferred to a traditional IRA or does the two-year period apply to each tranche? In case it was not clear from the previous replies. After two years, you can rollover the entire balance not just new contributions. Even if it is a less that two years, you can rollover the entire balance to another SIMPLE IRA. If it is a 5305-SEP IRA you can do rollovers at least monthly with no cost or fees to a SIMPLE IRA or if > two years to an IRA or any other eligible rollover destination. This is a good strategy if like many SIMPLE IRA plans you have expensive investment options or AUM fees. You can avoid all of that. Spirit Rider, Thanks...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 661

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

Silk McCue wrote: Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:12 pm In regards to your post above, read this.

https://finance.zacks.com/can-individua ... -1902.html

Cheers
Right, so with today’s numbers for someone under the age of 50, 6k max tIRA or Roth contribution, plus 13k max SIMPLE contribution, for 19k max contributions (employer contributions don’t count against you, and transfers you make from the SIMPLE to the tIRA aren’t counted as contributions).

Thanks for your input.
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 661

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

The 2 years does not reset it is the date on which you first participated . However, a special rule applies to a distribution received from a SIMPLE IRA during the 2-year period beginning on the date on which you first participated in your employer’s SIMPLE IRA plan. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/simple-ira-plan-faqs-distributions Cheers So this, then, is effectively a way to increase your Roth or traditional IRA contributions beyond the typical yearly limits (once the two years passes)? For example, after year 2, you could make a 6k (let’s assume they’re the same limits as this year) “new” contribution to your tIRA, and also transfer into that tIRA whatever had accumulated over the prior two years in the SIMPLE, plus also transfer ...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 661

Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

Apparently there is a two-year waiting period that must pass after the first deposit into a SIMPLE IRA before transferring the monies therein to, say, a traditional IRA unless you want to incur the penalty.

Does this mean that after two years, any additional monies that are deposited into the SIMPLE can immediately be transferred to a traditional IRA or does the two-year period apply to each tranche?
by samsdad
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best undergrad majors ahead of Law school?
Replies: 75
Views: 4893

Re: Best undergrad majors ahead of Law school?

Inactive lawyer here. I earned both an English BA and philosophy BA. I feel both degrees were valuable when I was practicing civil litigation. A lot of lawyering is about persuasion. Whether it's verbal or written, persuasive ability mostly comes from clear strategic thinking. Goal-orientated thinking. But communicating the thought is where the rubber hits the road. A computer-science or engineering degree, for example, might get you great strategic thinking. Yet a CS major might not be able to write a motion or persuade a jury because they can't form a sentence that isn't code. On the other hand, just because you have an English degree doesn't mean you have any persuasive ability. I agree with the other posters who point out that GPA and L...
by samsdad
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The Fed is considering 50- and 100-year treasuries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

I wonder if they’re issued if vineviz will feel that perhaps, just perhaps, the 100-year variety might be just a tad beyond the individual investor’s investing horizon... :wink:

Also wonder if the underlying ICE index will pick them up and be part of TLT (and thus TMF) or if they’ll be placed in another index.

Deep thoughts on a Friday night in bogleheadland...
by samsdad
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 12958

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

Actionable?

In other news, one of their 6DJ8 vacuum tubes from the 60s sounds great in my dad’s amplifier.
by samsdad
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 1263

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

The SMA calculation doesn't seem consistent with their approach with target volatility, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're anchoring the starting point. If you use the contact us button on PV, you'll get a response within 24 hours. I actually got an answer to my question on a Sunday. Also, I think I noticed before that you get different results with 20-day versus 1-month. Maybe specifying in days is the more precise way to go. Well, if I take an SMA between 7/1/2019 and 8/12/2019, I get 274.43 Surely, that can't be it. So, just in case their email to me left you scratching your head like it did me after some more trial and error, I finally figured out what they were saying, so here goes: PV says this as of this morning: Next period pre...
by samsdad
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 1263

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

Got an email back from them. Here's what they said:
Normally when you define the moving averages in calendar month terms rather than in trading days, the end of month samples are used, so 2-month SMA would calculate the average of the most recent month’s and the previous month’s adjusted close. For intra-month signals the calendar month periods are converted into trading days using 21 trading days per month.
by samsdad
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 1263

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

Gonna try another one. Here's what PV says about UPRO today:
Next period predicted allocation based on market data as of 08/13/2019.
Adjusted close of UPRO at $53.03 is 4.81% below its 2-month SMA at $55.71.
I'll try my hand by getting the yahoo data and starting July 1st...

EDIT: Well, starting July 1st through yesterday I get 55.75, which is close.

I'll email them and see what they say.