Search found 747 matches

by samsdad
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Issues with face masks?
Replies: 92
Views: 6178

Re: Issues with face masks?

Face masks do not stop people from catching coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) in light of recent studies suggesting the opposite. The United Nations’ health body was forced to review new evidence from Hong Kong claiming mass-issuing masks may have helped contain the pand...
by samsdad
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major unintended consequences of [Families First Coronavirus Response Act]
Replies: 43
Views: 7429

Re: Major unintended consequences of coronavirus bill

Anyone have a link to where to get the application for the exemption?
by samsdad
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How not to quote from the first page of this thread ? <snip> In the 4.5 years since Jan 2015, this strategy has mainly trailed the SP500. After the run-up this year it's back to about even with it....all while being much more volatile. Meh. Notwithstanding interest rates and their implications , in...
by samsdad
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yes, yes, I was being facetious. I too think there’s a lot of miles left on this story. I got spooked with my excellent-adventure variation of my portfolio and went 100% TMF mid-morning yesterday.

Will promised he’d let me know when it was safe to jump back into equities.
by samsdad
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710313

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whew! Thank goodness that’s over. I’m calling a bottom. It’s now very apparent that the market think this virus stuff is hogwash. Onward stonks!
by samsdad
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wells Fargo Paying $3 Billion To Settle U.S. Case Over Fraudulent Customer Accounts"
Replies: 49
Views: 3134

Re: "Wells Fargo Paying $3 Billion To Settle U.S. Case Over Fraudulent Customer Accounts"

I’m just glad they’ll be taking the fine out of the pay of the executives responsible and not passing it onto their customers in the form of higher fees over the next few years.
by samsdad
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SEC Proposing to block leveraged ETF!
Replies: 57
Views: 5511

Re: SEC Proposing to block leveraged ETF!

<snip>... • employment status (name of employer, self-employed or retired); • estimated annual income from all sources; • estimated net worth (exclusive of family residence); • estimated liquid net worth (cash, liquid securities, other); • percentage of the retail investor’s liquid net worth that h...
by samsdad
Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Death of The Stretch IRA
Replies: 153
Views: 11177

Re: The Death of The Stretch IRA

From the article: “it subjects the beneficiaries of traditional (tax-deferred) retirement plans to massive income-tax acceleration. This will be especially brutal if the beneficiaries of the inherited IRA are working and have income of their own. “. He seems to ignore that beneficiaries are getting...
by samsdad
Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Death of The Stretch IRA
Replies: 153
Views: 11177

Re: The Death of The Stretch IRA

The Act is a travesty and is putting hard working IRA and retirement plan owners at an extreme disadvantage. The deal all along was that if you put money in an IRA or retirement plan, your kids would get favorable tax treatment after you die. Now, late in the game, the government is effectively say...
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 28326

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

1. I’m not even sure this is a long term increase in tax revenue. You pull the income forward but tax a lower base. The government will see revenue sooner and I think that was the point. The law requires an impact analysis for the first decade. That is certainly the entire point. The Gov does not w...
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 28326

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

Maybe it is a fix for you, but it is not a welcome change for the majority of Bogleheads. They will be losing the first trust tax bracket amount of tax-free tax gain harvesting in UTMA accounts. Do the majority of Boglehads have UTMA accounts? Don't take this the wrong way. I'm not a Trekkie, but t...
by samsdad
Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Law Changes for 2020
Replies: 355
Views: 28326

Re: Tax Law Changes for 2020

It seems to me that those with significant tax-deferred assets (aka parents) will need to have some frank discussions with their heirs regarding the latter's tax situation to determine how attractive Roth conversions are for the parents and up to which marginal tax bracket. For instance, parents do...
by samsdad
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy, from all the data I’ve seen, has largely had shorter underwater periods than being 100% equities. But it’s still extremely common to be underwater for months or even years at a time. With the exception of '87, '95 & '15, yes, but since we're talking about ~6 major drawdown events, th...
by samsdad
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world
Replies: 38
Views: 3346

Re: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world

I also think it rendered most financial data from before 1971 almost useless. But I realize that belief is pretty controversial! It shouldn’t be. I tend to discount data before 2008! Because... Helicopter money, QE, the Fed exercising emergency powers the likes of which have never before been seen....
by samsdad
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 12539

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

SWA is the official airline of cheapskates. I fly Frontier. Much, much cheaper than SWA. Not sure what that makes me. A boglehead? I’d fly Spirit—which I hear is cheaper—but even I have standards. You can pick your seats on Frontier too. They are hard as a brick, or about as hard as my head, but I ...
by samsdad
Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cutting the Cord & Live Television
Replies: 45
Views: 3503

Re: Cutting the Cord & Live Television

How many folks do not purchase or watch any type of live television? Do you miss it? Do you miss sports? We cut it over a year ago and don’t miss it a bit. We tuned out, and got turned on and into Hi-Fi internet radio via a network audio device (Marantz NA 6005). We listen to crystal clear streamin...
by samsdad
Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying PG&E stock?
Replies: 60
Views: 6073

Re: Anyone buying PG&E stock?

Solar is looking better and better in PG&E territory. In my vast daily perusal of the internet, I thought I skimmed an article a month ago or so that even the solar citizens were affected by these blackouts. It had to do with not being able to charge their EVs iirc. Maybe I’m mistaken? ______ Edit:...
by samsdad
Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I was using UGLD, decided to use non leveraged GLDM instead as I do not like using an ETN. Curious as to why you chose that over the other two obvious alternatives, GLD and IAU? The performance between the three are virtually identical: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&tim...
by samsdad
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 133
Views: 14382

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

“Corruption drag” is what I refer to it as. Every market has it. Some have it more than others. I’m all for buying the basket of apples, as long as I can avoid the mushy red ones. You all don’t go to the store and buy the package of strawberries that have some mold on some of them do you? You check ...
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds
Replies: 68
Views: 5507

Re: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds

If you think you need a prenup, maybe you should think about marrying the lawyer that you’re hiring instead. After all, you are ostensibly trusting the lawyer to protect you more than how your future spouse might someday. Isn’t that what you’re worried about at the end of the day? Your money? Methin...
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camera system to watch the nanny
Replies: 70
Views: 4960

Re: Good camera system to watch the babysitter

I get that life doesn’t give one optimum choices most of the time, but if you don’t trust the babysitter whom you are using (for what I’m assuming is no more than a few hours), wouldn’t your time be better spent finding one that you trust enough not to have to watch via camera? We found one via our ...
by samsdad
Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 14016

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

The MSCI indexes are the most reliable data we have from 1970 to present.... Source? And, since you sound confident in your assertion, please break down why the DMS dataset utilized by Credit Suisse for their yearbook is inferior. I’m sure they’d be interested in getting it right; as well as anyone...
by samsdad
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 14016

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Whatever factors you think make it “special” now have made it equally “special” for the past 50 or 60 years, a period of time over which US equity returns have been effectively identical to ex-US returns and the diversification benefits of a globally diversified portfolio have been unambiguous. US ...
by samsdad
Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

rascott wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:20 pm It did in August. And TMF is not the 30 yr.... it's 20+ year... think the weighted avg is about 25 years.
Good thing it returned 35.11% in August then.
by samsdad
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)
Replies: 10
Views: 535

Re: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)

https://support.m1finance.com/hc/en-us/articles/360001464147-Your-Credit-Status-and-Maintenance-Calls I am trying to ensure I understand this correctly as it seems to be counter to my understanding that the equity portion must always be above your loan, otherwise you'll be liquidated. Example: $10,...
by samsdad
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)
Replies: 10
Views: 535

Re: Question on margin-loan math (M1 or general)

The margin call is subject to be higher if you are invested in more risky securities like leveraged ETFs or highly volatile stocks.
You’re not thinking of doing what I’m thinking your thinking of doing.... 8-)
by samsdad
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763242

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

lostdog wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:13 am The market hasn't gone anywhere since January of 2018. I'm always baffled when the media brings up the 10 year bull market.
Yeah, the disinformation makers have never been busier.
by samsdad
Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 15268

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Would you regret holding US only if it underperforms starting tomorrow?

“Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser...”

I don’t think I would, by the way.
by samsdad
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...
Replies: 14
Views: 1992

Re: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...

If you see price rocketing upward in a historical chart, then you can infer the possibility of price rocketing downward. These daily leveraged ETFs are not for people with weak stomachs. In fact the prospectus of a leveraged fund warns that an investor in the leveraged fund could potentially lose t...
by samsdad
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UPRO s and p 3x leverage or NTSX 1.5 leverage w bonds in a brokerage account...
Replies: 14
Views: 1992

Re: UPRO s and p 3x leverage in a brokerage account...

As a participant in a version of the excellent adventure, I’d go more towards 45 UPRO/55 TMF. As far as the tax drag of rebalancing in a taxable account, I’ll leave that math to someone who likes to do that sort of thing. You’ll want to provide your tax bracket info I’m sure. The rebalancing frequen...
by samsdad
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?
Replies: 16
Views: 1303

Re: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?

A.The US does not have a free market economy. “Estragon: we lost our rights? Vladimir: we got rid of them.” ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot B. Hard to see how this thread will survive moderators. “Vladimir: That passed the time. Estragon: It would have passed in any case. Vladimir: Yes, but not...
by samsdad
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?
Replies: 16
Views: 1303

Re: Fidelity - No fiduciary policy?

I agree with The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit: [O]n March 15, 2018—The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, based in New Orleans, vacated the fiduciary rule in a 2-to-1 decision, saying it constituted "unreasonableness," and that the DOL's implementation of the rule constitutes "a...
by samsdad
Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"
Replies: 35
Views: 4666

Re: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"

Didn’t we just have a thread that showed that lump-summing was better than DCAing, even if it meant lump-summing a much more bond-heavy AA, or did I just imagine that?
by samsdad
Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I do know the correlation with the other 2 is near zero and has done well when the other two have not. Personally I’ve been surprised at the total write off of about half the history of your backtests. I agree with this. Gold makes sense in a strategy which leans on LT bonds, with real interest rat...
by samsdad
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 639

Re: Potential excess ROTH

Thanks again to all of you!
by samsdad
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 639

Re: Potential excess ROTH

Thank you very much Alan for taking your time to answer my questions. I truly appreciate your assistance. I have a couple of follow ups, if you wouldn't mind sharing a little more of your time. ... There are obviously several moving parts here, the main one being your modified AGI, but there are oth...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential excess ROTH
Replies: 6
Views: 639

Potential excess ROTH

I need advice on what to do. I've been contributing to my newly opened (2019) Roth throughout the year thinking that DW and I were going to be under the income phaseout/cutoff. Turns out we might be over, if my small business gets a big order in the next few months (looks increasingly likely). To ma...
by samsdad
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 6641

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

Back in the original HF-excellent-adventure thread, I posted this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=272007&p=4407878&hilit=stunning#p4407878 In that post I quote from a paper that can be found here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426614000703?via%3Dihub S...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

Does this mean that after two years, any additional monies that are deposited into the SIMPLE can immediately be transferred to a traditional IRA or does the two-year period apply to each tranche? In case it was not clear from the previous replies. After two years, you can rollover the entire balan...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

In regards to your post above, read this. https://finance.zacks.com/can-individual-make-ira-simple-ira-contributions-1902.html Cheers Right, so with today’s numbers for someone under the age of 50, 6k max tIRA or Roth contribution, plus 13k max SIMPLE contribution, for 19k max contributions (employ...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Re: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

The 2 years does not reset it is the date on which you first participated . However, a special rule applies to a distribution received from a SIMPLE IRA during the 2-year period beginning on the date on which you first participated in your employer’s SIMPLE IRA plan. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-...
by samsdad
Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question
Replies: 6
Views: 410

Two-year SIMPLE IRA transfer question

Apparently there is a two-year waiting period that must pass after the first deposit into a SIMPLE IRA before transferring the monies therein to, say, a traditional IRA unless you want to incur the penalty. Does this mean that after two years, any additional monies that are deposited into the SIMPLE...
by samsdad
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best undergrad majors ahead of Law school?
Replies: 75
Views: 4103

Re: Best undergrad majors ahead of Law school?

Inactive lawyer here. I earned both an English BA and philosophy BA. I feel both degrees were valuable when I was practicing civil litigation. A lot of lawyering is about persuasion. Whether it's verbal or written, persuasive ability mostly comes from clear strategic thinking. Goal-orientated thinki...
by samsdad
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6431
Views: 595632

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

The Fed is considering 50- and 100-year treasuries. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/u-s-treasury-to-do-market-outreach-again-on-ultra-long-bonds-jzejo2qu?srnd=premium I wonder if they’re issued if vineviz will feel that perhaps, just perhaps, the 100-year variety might be just a t...
by samsdad
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 11603

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

Actionable?

In other news, one of their 6DJ8 vacuum tubes from the 60s sounds great in my dad’s amplifier.
by samsdad
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 857

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

The SMA calculation doesn't seem consistent with their approach with target volatility, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're anchoring the starting point. If you use the contact us button on PV, you'll get a response within 24 hours. I actually got an answer to my question on a Sunday. Also, I th...
by samsdad
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 857

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

Got an email back from them. Here's what they said: Normally when you define the moving averages in calendar month terms rather than in trading days, the end of month samples are used, so 2-month SMA would calculate the average of the most recent month’s and the previous month’s adjusted close. For ...
by samsdad
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .
Replies: 17
Views: 857

Re: 2 month SMA calculation in Portfoliovisualizer . . .

Gonna try another one. Here's what PV says about UPRO today: Next period predicted allocation based on market data as of 08/13/2019. Adjusted close of UPRO at $53.03 is 4.81% below its 2-month SMA at $55.71. I'll try my hand by getting the yahoo data and starting July 1st... EDIT: Well, starting Jul...