Search found 346 matches

by aj76er
Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimizing capital gains assuming FIFO basis
Replies: 24
Views: 1412

Re: Minimizing capital gains assuming FIFO basis

Use a separate fund to locate shares bought at a high Shiller CAPE or a high Price-to-earnings (PE) ratio? If you had two funds that were roughly similar (but were different enough to allow tax loss harvesting), maybe only invest in one of the funds when the Shiller CAPE or PE is above a particular...
by aj76er
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimizing capital gains assuming FIFO basis
Replies: 24
Views: 1412

Re: Minimizing capital gains assuming FIFO basis

For DCA during an investors accumulation phase, what would be your fund rotation strategy? I could envision things like the following: Option #1: rotate between different similar funds for each scheduled purchase Option #2: stick to one fund for a period if time (e.g for a year), then start using th...
by aj76er
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 79
Views: 9665

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with willthrill. An EE-bond within a portfolio should be valued as what it is presently worth. For an EE-bond prior to maturity, this would be the face value plus the 0.1% interest accrued thus far. The 3.53% rate is simply a mental accounting for what the 20yr holding period returns; not a...
by aj76er
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 79
Views: 9665

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with willthrill. An EE-bond within a portfolio should be valued as what it is presently worth. For an EE-bond prior to maturity, this would be the face value plus the 0.1% interest accrued thus far. The 3.53% rate is simply a mental accounting for what the 20yr holding period returns; not a...
by aj76er
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 79
Views: 9665

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

aristotelian wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:16 pm
While I can't prove it because no market exists
I suppose you could devise a contractual agreement on the future claim of a noobvestor's EE-bond? In this manner, you would be creating a market; but until that happens, the value is simply what the bond redeems for at the U.S. treasury.
by aj76er
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 79
Views: 9665

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I was thinking about this again and I'm revising my answer from four years ago: on my spreadsheets, I have started adding 5% each year (over initial value). For instance, a $10,000 EE bond bought 5 years ago would be marked $1,250 on the spreadsheet. Why? Because these are the last things I would s...
by aj76er
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating Total World Stock to avoid exchange risk
Replies: 8
Views: 889

Re: Approximating Total World Stock to avoid exchange risk

Check out these articles: https://finpage.blog/2017/03/18/investing-in-the-world-part-1/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-2/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-3/ It discusses using VT and "tilting" to one's domestic market. It looks at performance...
by aj76er
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond BND vs VBTLX (etf vs fund)?
Replies: 9
Views: 738

Re: Vanguard Total Bond BND vs VBTLX (etf vs fund)?

It might be worth reading Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing". Specifically, the example portfolio for an all taxable investor, named Taxable Ted.

If memory serves, for bonds he uses a combination of Treasuries, Muni Fund, and Short-term investment-grade corporate fund split evenly.
by aj76er
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings
Replies: 68
Views: 5125

Re: Help for semi retired friend with 8 figure savings

If your friend can live off <=$500k per year, then the Buffet's 90/10 could be an option.

$27mil in S&P500
$3mil in T-bills

That will pay approx. $570k just in dividends and interest alone (pre-tax) at today's rates. And it doesn't get any simpler than that.
by aj76er
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to allocate a $20,000 emergency fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Where to allocate a $20,000 emergency fund

FYI: I believe the Ally No penalty CD rate of 1.5% requires a minimum investment of 25k.
by aj76er
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3315

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I just got finished reading this series: https://finpage.blog/2017/03/18/investing-in-the-world-part-1/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-2/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-3/ Based on the data, equities split as 75% World + 25% Domestic held up...
by aj76er
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...
Replies: 35
Views: 4241

Re: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...

The following article discusses the technique of tilting a globally market portfolio to domestic equities:

https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investi ... ld-part-3/

A lot of analysis is done with 75% World + 25% Domestic tilt. Near the bottom, results are posted for 50% World + 50% Domestic.
by aj76er
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3315

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I just got finished reading this series: https://finpage.blog/2017/03/18/investing-in-the-world-part-1/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-2/ https://finpage.blog/2017/03/25/investing-in-the-world-part-3/ Based on the data, equities split as 75% World + 25% Domestic held up ...
by aj76er
Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond inflation irony?
Replies: 35
Views: 3583

Re: I-bond inflation irony?

Yes, the purchase limits do make them very difficult to match liabilities. Due to Inflation, $10k today doesn't pay for as much as it did a few years ago.

My cynical side says that by not raising purchase limits, the treasury is trying to slowly phase out IBonds
by aj76er
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3277

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

How about building a ladder of 5yr FDIC insured CD's? Currently these have a premium of ~40pbs over treasuries and yield similar to AAA corporate bonds. By spacing the rungs 1 year apart, you are fairly protected a rising interest rate environment. Perhaps hold a slice (~10%) in inter term treasury ...
by aj76er
Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Crash Defensive Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 3587

Re: Market Crash Defensive Portfolio

What about the Larry portfolio?
by aj76er
Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 44856

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

JustinR wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:46 am
Where can I find the definitive source for the 46% figure?
Search for the following pdf's in google:
"FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index Fact Sheet"
"U.S. TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX Fact Sheet"

In both, look for "market cap" numbers; add them up and then take the ratio of each to the sum.
by aj76er
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2568

Re: Currency risk?

There is a reason why the Vanguard website lists VTSAX as a 4 and VTIAX as a 5 on a risk scale (from 1-5). Yeah, but is it currency risk? If so, how important? The VTIAX skews small cap, value, and emerging market - all of these factors carries a higher risk. Is currency the thing that shifts it fr...
by aj76er
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 84
Views: 16283

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

The September 30, end-of-quarter numbers are out. The total market-caps all went up, but the overall allocation percentages are still the same at 30/27/22/21. September 30 numbers in red. I'll update the wiki too when I get a minute. The June 30 end-of-quarter numbers are out for the indexes that S...
by aj76er
Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 47
Views: 4283

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Second question remains. What do the coupon reinvestments do to your definition? If you reinvest them you no longer have a LMP by your definition because the future annual cash flow is unknown. This is one reason why IBonds are nice vehicles, because they automatically reinvest interest payments an...
by aj76er
Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1876
Views: 1159403

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

If one treats their entire portfolio as “one bag,” therefore spreading the 3 fund portfolio across taxable, iras, 401ks etc, would one need to change anything if they are retiring early? I’m looking to retire at 55 but I currently keep all of my bonds in IRA’s and 401k’s, while using taxable accoun...
by aj76er
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2568

Re: Currency risk?

As an interesting side note, currency risk is even at play when holding a US total market fund, like VTSAX, to some degree. This is because of the large amount of outsourcing done many US companies; especially in the tech sector (which is a large part of the US economy). At my own company (a mid-cap...
by aj76er
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2568

Re: Currency risk?

In the long run, I see the currency risk as small enough for me to consider it a wash. My stock allocation is 60/40 US/International, and it doesn't bother me one bit. Just my two cents. Those close to or in retirement are much more sensitive to short-term currency movements than those with long in...
by aj76er
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2568

Re: Currency risk?

Some interesting back-testing of the effects of holding international can now be done on www.portfoliocharts.com Take a typical allocation (40/20/35/5 of domestic stocks/foreign stocks/bonds/cash) and then look at the safe withdrawal rates across different countries and currencies. The addition of f...
by aj76er
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone used Zelle?
Replies: 37
Views: 4017

Re: Anyone used Zelle?

For collecting rents, check out cozy.co
by aj76er
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with fairly large amount of money in "maybe" house fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 886

Re: What to do with fairly large amount of money in "maybe" house fund?

How much is this relative to the rest of your portfolio? If >10%, then it could produce a lot of drag due to opportunity cost. I'd probably invest it into your portfolio (e.g. buy stocks in taxable, sell stocks in tax-shelteted, buy bonds in tax-shelteted). When it comes time to withdraw, do the opp...
by aj76er
Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 15421

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

Dividend paying stocks and growth stocks fundamentally represent two different types of businesses. In the interest of diversification, I prefer to own both. The tax drag on dividends is unfortunate. During long bull markets in which we see 10-20% YoY growth, we tend to scoff at dividends. When a 20...
by aj76er
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for organizing bookmarks
Replies: 9
Views: 599

Re: Suggestions for organizing bookmarks

For bookmarks I use chrome with sync. But I generally don't bookmark much anymore.

Now I mostly use Evernote. You can store entire pages, or just the URL (bookmark) for reference.
by aj76er
Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses
Replies: 35
Views: 2513

Re: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses

I have a spreadsheet to track expenses similar to other posters. I have expense categories in rows and months in columns. The last column sums all the expenses to show annual totals for each category. I also divide by 12 to show per month expenses (both actual and estimated which I fill in at the be...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 84
Views: 16283

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Just an FYI, I've started a wiki entry for Sharpe's WBS portfolio here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_B ... _Portfolio

Feel free to make additions, updates, and/or corrections!

I've probably added all I care to do for the time being :)
by aj76er
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 66
Views: 6817

Re: Fidelity Security

Thus, next year, I may do a $1 non-deductible IRA to Fidelity just to have 2FA via Symantec VIP. I will then do the other $5,499 to Vanguard to do my backdoor Roth. You could also just do a taxable brokerage account and not fund it. Seems easier. I thought there was a $2500 minimum deposit for a ta...
by aj76er
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 66
Views: 6817

Re: Fidelity Security

need403bhelp wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:53 pm
Thus, next year, I may do a $1 non-deductible IRA to Fidelity just to have 2FA via Symantec VIP. I will then do the other $5,499 to Vanguard to do my backdoor Roth.
You could also just do a taxable brokerage account and not fund it. Seems easier.
by aj76er
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2824

Re: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks

I like this approach to managing one's US/exUS split:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=226627&p=3516113#p3516113

Results in much less rebalancing
by aj76er
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Magic of Savings Rate
Replies: 97
Views: 11230

Re: The Magic of Savings Rate

I don't think the chart really works all that well at the outlier numbers. Even if my savings rate was 100%, I wouldn't be under two years from FI (I imagine that's true for most). Likewise, even if I only saved 5%, I'm fairly certain I could retire before I die (probably won't make it another 66 y...
by aj76er
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment
Replies: 24
Views: 1194

Re: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment

As a general rule, it is a bad time to buy into a fund after a long stretch of above average performance. I believe Bernstein calls this "skating to where the puck was". However, if you believe in the strategy and are willing to accept manager risk, then no harm to allocate a small part of your port...
by aj76er
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3153

Re: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds

A common piece of advice (by Larry Swedroe) is to set your AA based on your need, ability, and willingness to take risk. These will vary by individual circumstances, so It's a personal decision on how much percentage is allocated to bonds. Some things to consider: * Your fixed living costs + variabl...
by aj76er
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2847

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

In it's short history, has anyone calculated the correlation to the global equities market or just the S&P500?

Not sure how meaningful it would be, but interesting nonetheless.
by aj76er
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 134
Views: 9570

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:58 pm
triceratop wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:37 pm
Anyway, livesoft still needs to buy me breakfast. And not oatmeal.
I'm happy to buy anyone breakfast, lunch, and/or dinner. I have met in person quite a few people who post on the forum and have always enjoyed it tremendously.
Is this because you don't like oatmeal cooked in Pepsi? ;)
by aj76er
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Memory Foam Mattress Recomendations
Replies: 51
Views: 4674

Memory Foam Mattress Recomendations

I'm in the market for a good, quality memory foam mattress. I've decided that I don't sleep well on latex (even the softest ILD's are too firm for me), so I'd like a more traditional memory foam feel to hep alleviate pressure points. I am pretty lightweight at 140lbs with broad shoulders, which is w...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1522

Re: Shiller PE over 30

Investing in equities implies volatility and risk of losing money. There would be no premium otherwise. Set your AA based on your need, willingness, and ability to take risk. The market prices in future expectations. Sometimes expectations are met or exceeded, and other times they don't pan out. No ...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4119

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

The following points are always good advice, but perhaps even more prudent given the expected low returns moving forward:

1. Find ways to save more (budgeting, down sizing, etc)
2. Find ways to earn more (career growth, working longer, etc)
3. Pay off debt (mortgage, loans, etc)
by aj76er
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7956

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

Just remember that low cost of living and quality of life do not necessarily go hand in hand. And the converse is also true. A lot of places have been bid up massively in cost because everyone just had to move there because it WAS such a great place, and now massively overcrowded and built-up so th...
by aj76er
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3063
Views: 903901

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

It's probably been mentioned here already, but I just watched Moneyball. Great movie. The perfect analogy for passive indexing vs active management.
by aj76er
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 50468

Re: Equifax customer information leak

My other concern is fake tax returns. Haven't seen that mentioned here much. Any concern about this?

Only advice I've seen online is to file early. Would filing for an extension provide any protection?
by aj76er
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 50468

Re: Equifax customer information leak

I was able to put in a credit freeze at Experian and Equifax, but Transunion's website crapped out (I'll try back later).

In my state, it is a $10 charge to do this at each company. What a joke. I just wrote my senator.
by aj76er
Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 11
Views: 1736

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

Interesting. 70/30 is the US/EXUS bond split found in the LifeStrategy and TR funds.

LifeStrategy Income would probably be a better choice here?

A true global bond fund (with market cap weights, as per above post) would make it trivial to hold William Sharpe's World Bond/Stock portfolio.
by aj76er
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal
Replies: 13
Views: 1365

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

VPW provides for the maximum WD such that the portfolio lasts as long as the specified term. If you spend less than this, then the portfolio will last longer and/or grow.
by aj76er
Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4477

Re: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?

Why are we nitpicking the 1yr returns of a 5.5yr duration bond fund? To account for BND's duration, I hold 2yrs of expenses in Ally no-penalty CD's, and another 1yr in IBonds. And I'm working on saving another 1yr of expenses in IBonds. Thus, all together my FI allocation represents a reasonable sto...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?
Replies: 10
Views: 1644

Re: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?

Most of my fixed income allocation is in total bond fund in tax deferred. But I also hold some short-term CDs in taxable and IBonds.

I like having ready access to funds in case of emergency or big purchase, and the CD's and IBonds also allow more room for equities in tax deferred for more growth.
by aj76er
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4497

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

Here's an example of an adaptive AA policy in regards to US:exUS ratio: “My Asset Allocation Policy is to have 67% invested in U.S. stocks and the remainder in ex-U.S. stocks when the market value of U.S. stocks is 50% of the total value of world stocks, with the proportions to be determined each pe...