Search found 516 matches

by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 92
Views: 6032

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

A Few Comments and thoughts... I'm glad this isn't turning into another debate on if we need international or not. I totally understand that one could be just fine with US only, and that a domestic only portfolio might end up with a better end result for some than a Global portfolio. To each their ...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2342

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2342

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2342

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2342

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

Also, what makes you think this is a 9 year bull market? Stocks were roughly flat in 2015, so wouldn't this be more like a 2-3 year bull market? Or, when I look at stock charts going back a couple hundred years it looks like a steady upward trajectory, so why not conclude we're in a 200 year bull m...
by aj76er
Mon May 21, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 102
Views: 21650

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

With the announcement from Vanguard about their new Total World Bond ETF , Sharpe's preferred portfolio should get easier to implement. So, with the two big indexes currently having these market caps: FTSE Global All-Cap stock index: $51,878,881 million USD FTSE World Broad Investment-Grade Bond In...
by aj76er
Thu May 17, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5723

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

This Marketwatch article says that as a general rule of thumb, "every additional 10% of your portfolio in equities adds about one half of a percentage point per year to your return." If that's correct (perhaps someone more experienced can speak to it), it should be a helpful way to look at the retu...
by aj76er
Mon May 14, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4675

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

Yes, I currently have my paycheck deposited entirely into my taxable brokerage. I do quarterly purchases for the following reasons: 1. I pay $4.95 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. I'm currently only purchasing VTI in taxable, so ~$20/yr is negligible. 2. A quarterly purchase schedule keeps the number of ...
by aj76er
Mon May 14, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4675

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

1. I pay $4.95 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. I'm currently only purchasing VTI in taxable, so ~$20/yr is negligible. Why do you put up with this? Your location is listed as in the United States, you could easily set up a Vanguard brokerage at Vanguard and pay $0 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. Yes, $20/yr ...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4675

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

In taxable, I use ETFs and save up for quarterly purchases . I think that the threshold for 'too many' lots would be a lot - like 1000's vs 100's. Even still, all else being equal, I would prefer fewer lots to manage during withdrawals in retirement when I plan to tax gain harvest (TGH). It just me...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do to lower our oversized emergency fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: What would you do to lower our oversized emergency fund?

Option #3.

Alternatively, you could buy some I-bonds as well, which give you some tax deferred money that will at least keep up with inflation. Max purchase is $10k per SSN per year (so $20k total for you and spouse).
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4675

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

In taxable, I use ETFs and save up for quarterly purchases. I think that the threshold for 'too many' lots would be a lot - like 1000's vs 100's. Even still, all else being equal, I would prefer fewer lots to manage during withdrawals in retirement when I plan to tax gain harvest (TGH). It just mean...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 82
Views: 8682

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Using the VPW as a guide, consider these inputs: AA: 70/30 Stock/Bond Retire at age 44 in yr 2020 Withdraw from portfolio until age 110 in yr 2086 Real future stock returns: 4% Real future bond returns: 0.5% This gives a starting withdrawal rate of around 3.3% of portfolio balance. In fact, the SWR ...
by aj76er
Sat May 12, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Frugal Thing You Do
Replies: 554
Views: 131185

Re: That Frugal Thing You Do

1. Buy oatmeal in bulk and make it for breakfast most days 2. Pack a lunch for work every day 3. Learned to cook some basic dishes and make dinner at home every week day 4. Own a Prius 5. Use Google FI for mobile plan 6. Get most clothes at thrift stores 7. Do my own taxes (started this year!) 8. Li...
by aj76er
Fri May 11, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally 12 month cd 2.25%
Replies: 9
Views: 2149

Re: Ally 12 month cd 2.25%

Looking at Fidelity, the 9mo T-bill is yielding 2.22%. Unless the CD has no (or very low) EWP, T-bills would be a better deal now.
by aj76er
Fri May 11, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year taxable account investment
Replies: 8
Views: 1058

Re: 10 year taxable account investment

It sounds like your taxable account is just an extension of your overall retirement assets. In this case, VTSAX and/or VTIAX would both be very good choices. On the other hand, if you are trying to meet a defined future liability, then you would probably want a fixed-income investment like a bond or...
by aj76er
Wed May 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock & Bond Market Forecast
Replies: 18
Views: 2262

Re: Stock & Bond Market Forecast

Recently when I forecasted using the VPW spreadsheet, I plugged in 4% real for equities and 0.5% real for bonds. I also use a conservative longevity at 110, and AA of 70/30 stocks/bonds.

The result is a starting SWR of ~3.5% at age 50.
by aj76er
Wed May 09, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10571

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Kevin's post, demonstrates that a single issue direct CD with low EWP is vastly superior (if you can get these in tax deferred accounts, like an IRA). I think a ladder of brokered CD's would have a similar behavior (with the difference of being better in rising interest rate env, and worse in falli...
by aj76er
Tue May 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10571

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

For someone who is interested in Treasuries, CDs, AA and above munis etc., I think I would now say, "Go ahead and buy the individual bonds" A fund of treasury bonds is not fundamentally better than a ladder of individual issues, after all. If you are referring to my question, it wasn't to compare i...
by aj76er
Mon May 07, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10571

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

So would a 5yr rolling CD ladder do better than a nominal 5yr duration bond fund in a rising rate environment? If so, how much better? Has anyone done the math on this? Or is there any backtested data available?
by aj76er
Sat May 05, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6113

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I take the approach of the "house". This. What we know is that for that past 200yrs, the market has risen ~67% of the time and fallen ~33% of the time. With a buy&hold approach, you are playing the better odds, same as the "house". Over a long period of time, you'll win a lot more than you'll lose....
by aj76er
Wed May 02, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7085

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

All those suckers who bought at 0.1% can hang their heads now. :twisted: Not sure about that. Those that bought at the beginning of the year earned 6 months of (additional) interest at slightly higher (composite) rates. Right now, they are ahead :). Would need to do some math to show the break-even...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25691

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

I've still got a couple 1.75% no penalty CD's, which are still seem competitive with (non-muni) money markets. At Fidelity, the best (non-muni) MM is around 1.5% for the prime money market (net of fees). Alternatives @ Fidelity would be 3mo T-bills directly or an ETF like BIL or SHV. However, the sp...
by aj76er
Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 7282

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

...The trouble with mixing your money with appeal to authority is that even the great ones can be very wrong. ... That's certainly true. Look at all the people who invested in international stocks over the past decade+, following advice based on"Efficient Frontier" charts and what-not, and haven't ...
by aj76er
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?
Replies: 44
Views: 5769

Re: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?

For those of you who use I-bonds as part of your fixed-income allocation. How do you manage them within the portfolio? I see several options: 1. Let them float as a percentage of portfolio. Do you just hold to maturity here? If not, how do you know when to sell? 2. Set an upper max percentage of por...
by aj76er
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Monthly Cost of Living
Replies: 66
Views: 7038

Re: Your Monthly Cost of Living

1. Housing: rent/mortgage/utilities - $150 (HOA) + $50 (elec.) + $50 (home internet) + $30 (mobile) = $280 2. Transportation: car, insurance, license, registration, gas, maintenance = $50 (fuel) + $50 (planned maintenance) = $100 3. Food: groceries, restaurants = $300 (groceries) + $150 (dining out)...
by aj76er
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1071

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

You may be interested in the World Bond/Stock Portfolio proposed by William Sharpe. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_Bond/Stock_Portfolio https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=207804 Has anyone created a ETF or mutual fund based on this portfolio? Not that I'm aware of. There used t...
by aj76er
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 8745

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

If you don't care about leaving a large inheritance, then your are good to go. I think 2.8% has been the historical PWR (perpetual withdrawal rate), that maintains real inflation-adjusted principle. I would probably lean a bit more towards equities (no less than 60/40), but probably won't make a big...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1071

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

It would probably make sense to exclude specialty bonds - e.g. municiple, TIPs, junk, etc...

You may be interested in the World Bond/Stock Portfolio proposed by William Sharpe.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_B ... _Portfolio
viewtopic.php?t=207804
by aj76er
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 70
Views: 6000

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

So you assume today's growth rates for emerging markets will persist (on average) for the next 30yrs? I think there are a lot of things that can derail a high growth rate as emerging economies "mature". Also, I'm not convinced that demographics will correlate so positively to GDP growth rates in the...
by aj76er
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Aren't we betting a bit too heavily on US stocks and bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 2697

Re: Aren't we betting a bit too heavily on US stocks and bonds?

You might be interested in Bill Sharpe's World Bond Stock Portfolio. If you type that in the search or (Bill Sharpe WBS), you will find some threads about it.

Here is an ongoing Wiki page about the portfolio:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_B ... _Portfolio
by aj76er
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond’s Variable Rate Will Fall To 2.22% On May 1
Replies: 36
Views: 4609

Re: I Bond’s Variable Rate Will Fall To 2.22% On May 1

John151 wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:28 pm
On an investment of $10,000, changes in fixed rates and inflation rates are pretty negligible, so I buy the maximum in January and then forget about it.
+1
by aj76er
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money Market ETF???
Replies: 2
Views: 282

Re: Money Market ETF???

SHV might be another option.
by aj76er
Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling ageism in tech
Replies: 56
Views: 4633

Re: Handling ageism in tech

When I turned 38, I decided to ramp up my savings rate dramatically with the goal of being at a relatively comfortable FI state by age 45. I just turned 42, and my savings rate is in the range of 60% (of gross salary). Getting into management is a viable option for those who can do it, but as others...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 12115

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Age: 42 AA w/o emergency fund: 72/28 Stock/Bond AA w/ emergency fund: 67/33 Stock/Bond My preference is AGE-15 (although my emergency fund puts me closer to AGE-10). I maintain a large emergency fund because my job is in a niche technology field and I've never had much job security (and not confiden...
by aj76er
Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6112

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

How exactly are t-bills a risky asset long-term, when they historically have kept up with inflation? His first statement was the more correct one; they're close to a risk free asset, and I would add for any length of time. I haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast yet though. Maybe there's a ...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10642

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Do a Google search for "Investing in the World - Part 1" and "Investing in the World - Parts 1 & 2". Both are posts written by forum member Saimond, and show the effects of investing internationally from the perspective of various developed countries. Irrespective of time and space, holding a 50/50 ...
by aj76er
Fri Mar 30, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hotel Fund Investment Oppurtunity
Replies: 9
Views: 713

Re: Hotel Fund Investment Oppurtunity

This forum is mostly focused on index fund investments. You may try asking on a site like biggerpockets.com
by aj76er
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 9589

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

I get a monthly email from Zillow on my home value. For NW inclusion, I take the Zillow quoted home value and multiply by 95% to account for selling fees. The NW calculation I do is more if a curiosity. It's not very actionable, but helps me see my financial picture a little better. For example, if ...
by aj76er
Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?
Replies: 37
Views: 2906

Re: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has it's Time Arrived?

Why not just hold t-bills and set them to auto-roll?
by aj76er
Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many are using Automatic contributions?
Replies: 41
Views: 2909

Re: How many are using Automatic contributions?

At Fidelity, you can have payroll deposit directly to brokerage, as all their accounts have routing numbers available. Not sure about Vanguard. For many years, I did full automated monthly purchases from my checking account. I really prefer that method because it keeps me from over thinking things. ...
by aj76er
Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 246
Views: 27335

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

^Right, a marketable limit order is NOT: An offer to buy at the current best bid or less. An offer to sell at the current best ask or more. So, when trading at Fidelity using the normal trading ticket, all I see is the current "ask" and current "bid" prices. If I set a limit order to buy at the "as...
by aj76er
Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do people budget for annual car maintenance?
Replies: 39
Views: 2291

Re: How much do people budget for annual car maintenance?

I own a 2014 Prius with about 50,000 miles and I budget ~$600/year.
by aj76er
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 22669

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

Very recently I found that many FI (financial independence) forums are on FB and I've actually started using it again (if only to read/post on those) :). Also, music is a big hobby of mine, and there are some music forums hosted on there that I follow (and use it to get notified of local concerts f...
by aj76er
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6550
Views: 1405391

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

cfs wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm
So, what excuses do we have for the latest down market? Gracias por leer ~cfs~
From what I can tell, it is all due to potential trade wars and Facebook.
by aj76er
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 22669

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

I stopped using it years ago. Very recently I found that many FI (financial independence) forums are on FB and I've actually started using it again (if only to read/post on those) :). Also, music is a big hobby of mine, and there are some music forums hosted on there that I follow (and use it to get...
by aj76er
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 128
Views: 19233

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

Not as convenient, but I'm thinking of rolling my Ally No-Penalty CDs into 3mo. T-bills.
Auction is next week, I think.
by aj76er
Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Impending market correction
Replies: 28
Views: 1853

Re: Impending market correction

If you hold international equities, then they are more reasonably valued. So look at the combined P/E of your stock portion (US + Intl). If international stocks do well, the US will be along for the ride, most likely.
by aj76er
Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those with high savings rate: why?
Replies: 246
Views: 31229

Re: Those with high savings rate: why?

Since I work in tech, and there is clear ageism. If you're 55+ - I'm sorry. And that isn't as far away as it used to be. I hope to be proven wrong, but that's what worries me. To be clear, I'm not living like a pauper, as my savings rate is not absurdly high (30%), but if I knew I could count on le...
by aj76er
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to keep track of Roth cost basis?
Replies: 13
Views: 1948

Re: How to keep track of Roth cost basis?

^^^ Note my question only applies if withdrawing prior to 59.5