Search found 537 matches

by aj76er
Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 2962

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

While the portfolio comparison data was in a spreadsheet, it seemed worthwhile to calculate the Sharpe ratios of the two portfolios for each of the 5 decades: https://i.imgur.com/kBRZSjq.jpg Note: The 2010s includes the eight-years from 2010-2017. The Sharpe ratio of the multi-asset portfolio was a...
by aj76er
Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?
Replies: 75
Views: 5626

Re: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?

Does this mean you have to pay estimated taxes? I had to do that once at the state level (due to a sale of a rental property) so I'm always hesitant to withhold all taxes from paycheck.
by aj76er
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?
Replies: 75
Views: 5626

Re: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?

~45%

Max 401k, max HSA, and other typical mega Corp expenses (medical insurance premiums, LT disability premiums, etc)

Also a little extra withholding for taxes (historically to make up for ESPP sales), but I'm thinking of stopping this, which would bump the percentage closer to 50%
by aj76er
Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity
Replies: 55
Views: 7296

Re: Buying Treasury Bills: Treasury Direct or Vanguard / Fidelity

I was wanting to buy a 13-week T-bill at the next auction on 6/11. If I wanted to buy at Fidelity, would I do this at: Investment Products->Fixed Income->Individual Bonds->Find Bonds->New Issues->Treasury Currently it shows "0" are available, So I'm just wondering if bonds show up here just before t...
by aj76er
Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with cash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9621

Re: What are you doing with cash?

When you guys use Vanguard Money Market, do you write checks and use this account as a regular bank account? Isn't this a bit more dangerous because the routing/account number is more exposed and mutual fund money market doesn't have a bank protection? Enlighten me. I think you have a good and ofte...
by aj76er
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting started with Non-retirement account
Replies: 15
Views: 1057

Re: Getting started with Non-retirement account

Unless saving for something else besides retirement, I would max out wife's 401k before opening a taxable account. When it is time to open a taxable account, I would open it as a joint account and not 2 separate ones. Munis come into play at about the 28% bracket. You could start with ETFs if you w...
by aj76er
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 63
Views: 8425

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

I always have money to buy equities since I have about 30% of my portfolio normally (not always, because I have a range!) in fixed income funds. Perhaps a bit of off-topic from the thread, but I would like to know your strategy for adjusting your stock/bond ratio. Does it depend on valuations (e.g ...
by aj76er
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA as retirement vehicle
Replies: 33
Views: 3054

Re: HSA as retirement vehicle

When using your HSA to pay for current medical expenses, one trick you can do is to first charge everything on a points credit card, and then reimburse yourself out of the HSA to pay off the credit card.
by aj76er
Thu May 31, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12215

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

There's a whole community of financially independent early retired folks with kids. You may want to check out some blogs or get on some of those discussion boards to get some ideas and perspective. The MMM forum is pretty active. Thank you. Do you have any specific ones that you recommend? I've rea...
by aj76er
Thu May 31, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: steel cut oats in bulk
Replies: 50
Views: 4038

Re: steel cut oats in bulk

I buy Bob's Red Mill Organic Steel Cut Oats 7lbs bag at Costco. It is typically stocked where I live (around Portland, OR). However, my parents have informed me that they cannot get it at their Costco (in Memphis, TN). So, it's dependent on location.
by aj76er
Wed May 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12215

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

There's a whole community of financially independent early retired folks with kids. You may want to check out some blogs or get on some of those discussion boards to get some ideas and perspective. The MMM forum is pretty active.
by aj76er
Wed May 30, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT versus VTSAX
Replies: 25
Views: 1836

Re: ITOT versus VTSAX

drk wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 11:02 pm
vineviz wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 10:15 pm
ITOT Expense Ratio: 0.03%
VTSAX Expense Ratio: 0.04%

That's 25% cheaper! :wink:
Ah, but BlackRock only gives you 71% of the securities lending revenue.
This. And VTI has larger AUM with smaller bid/ask.
by aj76er
Tue May 29, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10439

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

folks should pick an asset allocation, quit thinking they can predict these things and stay the course. When I eventually get back into the bond fund, I will try to remember to post here regarding whether I was able to avoid any losses by temporarily going to the MMF. After contemplating my situati...
by aj76er
Mon May 28, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When and how often do you rebalance
Replies: 52
Views: 3834

Re: When and how often do you rebalance

My IPS says to rebalance both annually and according to 5/25 bands. However I'm considering just doing down to annually (and ignoring bands). If you backtest in www.portfoliovisualizer.com, you'll see that annual rebalancing was optimal. That is, it produced better results than more frequent rebala...
by aj76er
Mon May 28, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Alternatives
Replies: 16
Views: 1525

Re: Emergency Fund Alternatives

I-bonds are a good option. If you time your buys around the end of the year, a couple can build up 40k pretty quickly (buy 10k/per ssn in December and then again in January). Then you have a 1yr lockout, but liquid after that. Currently 3mo or even 1mo treasuries are also a good option and could tid...
by aj76er
Mon May 28, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When and how often do you rebalance
Replies: 52
Views: 3834

Re: When and how often do you rebalance

My IPS says to rebalance both annually and according to 5/25 bands. However I'm considering just doing down to annually (and ignoring bands). If you backtest in www.portfoliovisualizer.com, you'll see that annual rebalancing was optimal. That is, it produced better results than more frequent rebalan...
by aj76er
Sat May 26, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?
Replies: 54
Views: 4475

Re: The "4% withdrawl rate" - would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?

Consider using the VPW method with the following inputs: Start Year: 2019 Start Age: 75 Last Withdrawal Age: 105 Depletion Years: 31 (<--- conservative) U.S. Stocks: 15% International Stocks: 15% Domestic Bonds: 70% Stocks Estimated Real Growth: 4.0% (<--- conservative) Bonds Estimated Real Growth: ...
by aj76er
Sat May 26, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 2942

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

We live in a USD dominated country whose GDP is smaller than the GMP (gross municipal product) of Oklahoma City. The credit rating for our govt bonds is junk. We have a 40% global equity allocation combined with 55% in investment grade USA bonds. This January we will probably go back to 60 global s...
by aj76er
Fri May 25, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FZDXX- 1.81%. Security? [Fidelity Treasury Money Market]
Replies: 10
Views: 1526

Re: FZDXX- 1.81%. Security?

FZFXX has ~50% in U.S. Treasuries. E/R = 42bps FZDXX has ~30% in CDs and ~30% in commercial paper. E/R = 0.3% So, FZDXX is a little more risky with lower ER which results in higher yield. Neither is FDIC insured. But I would consider both as very safe. As an alternative, for virtually no risk and a...
by aj76er
Fri May 25, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FZDXX- 1.81%. Security? [Fidelity Treasury Money Market]
Replies: 10
Views: 1526

Re: FZDXX- 1.81%. Security?

FZFXX has ~50% in U.S. Treasuries. E/R = 42bps FZDXX has ~30% in CDs and ~30% in commercial paper. E/R = 0.3% So, FZDXX is a little more risky with lower ER which results in higher yield. Neither is FDIC insured. But I would consider both as very safe. As an alternative, for virtually no risk and ab...
by aj76er
Thu May 24, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 10507

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Regardless of whether one calls this a bucket strategy or a conventional AA, the point is that it worked better than a static AA. Do we know that to be the case? That is actually what i was questioning. If i understand it correctly, you are basing that on this statement: While he characterizes the ...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12725

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

A Few Comments and thoughts... I'm glad this isn't turning into another debate on if we need international or not. I totally understand that one could be just fine with US only, and that a domestic only portfolio might end up with a better end result for some than a Global portfolio. To each their ...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2632

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2632

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2632

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

...You seem to be trying to justify holding a lower equity allocation. An honest assessment of your "ability, need, and willingness" to take short-term risk should be the only driver of your stock/bond split. Any attempt to market time should not. So your advice is to completely ignore long term ri...
by aj76er
Wed May 23, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Class Forecasts
Replies: 47
Views: 2632

Re: Asset Class Forecasts

Also, what makes you think this is a 9 year bull market? Stocks were roughly flat in 2015, so wouldn't this be more like a 2-3 year bull market? Or, when I look at stock charts going back a couple hundred years it looks like a steady upward trajectory, so why not conclude we're in a 200 year bull m...
by aj76er
Mon May 21, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 102
Views: 22112

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

With the announcement from Vanguard about their new Total World Bond ETF , Sharpe's preferred portfolio should get easier to implement. So, with the two big indexes currently having these market caps: FTSE Global All-Cap stock index: $51,878,881 million USD FTSE World Broad Investment-Grade Bond In...
by aj76er
Thu May 17, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 5903

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

This Marketwatch article says that as a general rule of thumb, "every additional 10% of your portfolio in equities adds about one half of a percentage point per year to your return." If that's correct (perhaps someone more experienced can speak to it), it should be a helpful way to look at the retu...
by aj76er
Mon May 14, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4828

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

Yes, I currently have my paycheck deposited entirely into my taxable brokerage. I do quarterly purchases for the following reasons: 1. I pay $4.95 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. I'm currently only purchasing VTI in taxable, so ~$20/yr is negligible. 2. A quarterly purchase schedule keeps the number of ...
by aj76er
Mon May 14, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4828

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

1. I pay $4.95 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. I'm currently only purchasing VTI in taxable, so ~$20/yr is negligible. Why do you put up with this? Your location is listed as in the United States, you could easily set up a Vanguard brokerage at Vanguard and pay $0 to buy/sell Vanguard ETFs. Yes, $20/yr ...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4828

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

In taxable, I use ETFs and save up for quarterly purchases . I think that the threshold for 'too many' lots would be a lot - like 1000's vs 100's. Even still, all else being equal, I would prefer fewer lots to manage during withdrawals in retirement when I plan to tax gain harvest (TGH). It just me...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do to lower our oversized emergency fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 3421

Re: What would you do to lower our oversized emergency fund?

Option #3.

Alternatively, you could buy some I-bonds as well, which give you some tax deferred money that will at least keep up with inflation. Max purchase is $10k per SSN per year (so $20k total for you and spouse).
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with too many lots?
Replies: 47
Views: 4828

Re: Anything wrong with too many lots?

In taxable, I use ETFs and save up for quarterly purchases. I think that the threshold for 'too many' lots would be a lot - like 1000's vs 100's. Even still, all else being equal, I would prefer fewer lots to manage during withdrawals in retirement when I plan to tax gain harvest (TGH). It just mean...
by aj76er
Sun May 13, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 10507

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Using the VPW as a guide, consider these inputs: AA: 70/30 Stock/Bond Retire at age 44 in yr 2020 Withdraw from portfolio until age 110 in yr 2086 Real future stock returns: 4% Real future bond returns: 0.5% This gives a starting withdrawal rate of around 3.3% of portfolio balance. In fact, the SWR ...
by aj76er
Sat May 12, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Frugal Thing You Do
Replies: 554
Views: 131591

Re: That Frugal Thing You Do

1. Buy oatmeal in bulk and make it for breakfast most days 2. Pack a lunch for work every day 3. Learned to cook some basic dishes and make dinner at home every week day 4. Own a Prius 5. Use Google FI for mobile plan 6. Get most clothes at thrift stores 7. Do my own taxes (started this year!) 8. Li...
by aj76er
Fri May 11, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally 12 month cd 2.25%
Replies: 9
Views: 2221

Re: Ally 12 month cd 2.25%

Looking at Fidelity, the 9mo T-bill is yielding 2.22%. Unless the CD has no (or very low) EWP, T-bills would be a better deal now.
by aj76er
Fri May 11, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year taxable account investment
Replies: 8
Views: 1106

Re: 10 year taxable account investment

It sounds like your taxable account is just an extension of your overall retirement assets. In this case, VTSAX and/or VTIAX would both be very good choices. On the other hand, if you are trying to meet a defined future liability, then you would probably want a fixed-income investment like a bond or...
by aj76er
Wed May 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock & Bond Market Forecast
Replies: 18
Views: 2357

Re: Stock & Bond Market Forecast

Recently when I forecasted using the VPW spreadsheet, I plugged in 4% real for equities and 0.5% real for bonds. I also use a conservative longevity at 110, and AA of 70/30 stocks/bonds.

The result is a starting SWR of ~3.5% at age 50.
by aj76er
Wed May 09, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12609

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Kevin's post, demonstrates that a single issue direct CD with low EWP is vastly superior (if you can get these in tax deferred accounts, like an IRA). I think a ladder of brokered CD's would have a similar behavior (with the difference of being better in rising interest rate env, and worse in falli...
by aj76er
Tue May 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12609

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

For someone who is interested in Treasuries, CDs, AA and above munis etc., I think I would now say, "Go ahead and buy the individual bonds" A fund of treasury bonds is not fundamentally better than a ladder of individual issues, after all. If you are referring to my question, it wasn't to compare i...
by aj76er
Mon May 07, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12609

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

So would a 5yr rolling CD ladder do better than a nominal 5yr duration bond fund in a rising rate environment? If so, how much better? Has anyone done the math on this? Or is there any backtested data available?
by aj76er
Sat May 05, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6504

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I take the approach of the "house". This. What we know is that for that past 200yrs, the market has risen ~67% of the time and fallen ~33% of the time. With a buy&hold approach, you are playing the better odds, same as the "house". Over a long period of time, you'll win a lot more than you'll lose....
by aj76er
Wed May 02, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7348

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

All those suckers who bought at 0.1% can hang their heads now. :twisted: Not sure about that. Those that bought at the beginning of the year earned 6 months of (additional) interest at slightly higher (composite) rates. Right now, they are ahead :). Would need to do some math to show the break-even...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 180
Views: 28953

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

I've still got a couple 1.75% no penalty CD's, which are still seem competitive with (non-muni) money markets. At Fidelity, the best (non-muni) MM is around 1.5% for the prime money market (net of fees). Alternatives @ Fidelity would be 3mo T-bills directly or an ETF like BIL or SHV. However, the sp...
by aj76er
Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 76
Views: 7524

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

...The trouble with mixing your money with appeal to authority is that even the great ones can be very wrong. ... That's certainly true. Look at all the people who invested in international stocks over the past decade+, following advice based on"Efficient Frontier" charts and what-not, and haven't ...
by aj76er
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?
Replies: 44
Views: 5900

Re: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?

For those of you who use I-bonds as part of your fixed-income allocation. How do you manage them within the portfolio? I see several options: 1. Let them float as a percentage of portfolio. Do you just hold to maturity here? If not, how do you know when to sell? 2. Set an upper max percentage of por...
by aj76er
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Monthly Cost of Living
Replies: 66
Views: 7150

Re: Your Monthly Cost of Living

1. Housing: rent/mortgage/utilities - $150 (HOA) + $50 (elec.) + $50 (home internet) + $30 (mobile) = $280 2. Transportation: car, insurance, license, registration, gas, maintenance = $50 (fuel) + $50 (planned maintenance) = $100 3. Food: groceries, restaurants = $300 (groceries) + $150 (dining out)...
by aj76er
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1104

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

You may be interested in the World Bond/Stock Portfolio proposed by William Sharpe. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_Bond/Stock_Portfolio https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=207804 Has anyone created a ETF or mutual fund based on this portfolio? Not that I'm aware of. There used t...
by aj76er
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 9050

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

If you don't care about leaving a large inheritance, then your are good to go. I think 2.8% has been the historical PWR (perpetual withdrawal rate), that maintains real inflation-adjusted principle. I would probably lean a bit more towards equities (no less than 60/40), but probably won't make a big...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1104

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

It would probably make sense to exclude specialty bonds - e.g. municiple, TIPs, junk, etc...

You may be interested in the World Bond/Stock Portfolio proposed by William Sharpe.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_B ... _Portfolio
viewtopic.php?t=207804