Search found 769 matches

by aj76er
Sun May 31, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15479

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

For accumulators:
60% NTSX
30% VXUS
10% EDV

For retirees:
30% NTSX
10% VXUS
25% TAIL
20% TIP
10% STIP
5% VGLT
by aj76er
Thu May 28, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If not 3 fund, whats your strategy ?
Replies: 66
Views: 4132

Re: If not 3 fund, whats your strategy ?

100% VTSAX or S&P500 (if a TSM fund is not available) and a large EF. IMO this is the most efficient strategy as long as you are at least 10+ years from retirement. No tinkering. What are your plans for de-risking as you get closer to retirement? Just build a larger EF? Or would you add bonds at so...
by aj76er
Mon May 25, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 40
Views: 3265

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

Rus In Urbe wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:44 am
Remember the gas lines?
No, but were they similar to Costco gas lines on any given Saturday?
by aj76er
Sat May 16, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9441

Re: International market recovery

CAGR 1970-2019 INTL 8.65% Data is from here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2520&p=5178028#p5178028 CAGR 1970-2009 INTL 9.55% US 9.87% CAGR 2010-2019 INTL 5.1% US 13.42% What I see from the data is that investing globally has led to a very predictable average return (i.e. CAG...
by aj76er
Fri May 15, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 9029

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

So 'meh' that I hold them in taxable. In taxable, the capital gains from rebalancing are more of an issue than the yield. Not really. For example if you have VTSAX and it has dropped, then you could just TLH to VFIAX when selling your long term treasuries (to then buy more VFIAX), the TLH exercise ...
by aj76er
Thu May 14, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 9029

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:40 pm
So 'meh' that I hold them in taxable.
In taxable, the capital gains from rebalancing are more of an issue than the yield.
by aj76er
Mon May 11, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market vs. Limit Orders
Replies: 59
Views: 3588

Re: Market vs. Limit Orders

When regularly purchasing ETFs in a taxable investment account, and assuming a DCA strategy, do you initiate market or limit orders? Why? I use Marketable Limit Orders Sell to the bid and buy from the ask Leave a little room for market fluctuation You get immediate execution at the market price and...
by aj76er
Mon May 11, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%
Replies: 79
Views: 9121

Re: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%

I rolled our cash over to Ally last week and promptly put most of it into a few no penalty CDs, as I figured the rates would be dropping.

We’ve seen this play out before during the last recession.
by aj76er
Sun May 10, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nuveen muni nmz
Replies: 2
Views: 377

Re: Nuveen muni nmz

typical.investor wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:16 pm
I prefer to XMPT as the index it tracks increases allocation to funds which trade at a bigger discount. It's an extra 0.40% cost above the CEF fees though.
Interesting fund. Similar yield as a high-yield muni fund (e.g. HYD), but with lower drawdowns in the recent crisis. Low AUM though.
by aj76er
Fri May 08, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 394
Views: 70778

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Bogleheads - Has anyone changed their bond strategy in the current environment of low interest rates? I still hold short term Treasurys; average maturity ~3 years. But I am not excited about buying new 5-year notes with ~0.3% rate. At that rate, why not just do a HY Savings account (e.g. Ally)? You...
by aj76er
Fri May 08, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPad.. worth it?
Replies: 49
Views: 3080

Re: iPad.. worth it?

I recently bought an iPad Air because of the extended (COVID19) work from home arrangement so I could attend meetings from any room in the house with a decent sized screen. It has become my favorite device, and I use it for pretty much everything outside of work - e.g. reading Bogleheads, surfing th...
by aj76er
Tue May 05, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 159
Views: 24371

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

My domestic / international split was heavily influenced my this series (written by Boglehead forum member Saimond): https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-1 https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-2 https://www.b...
by aj76er
Tue May 05, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity 500 (FXAIX) vs Total Market (FSKAX)
Replies: 4
Views: 664

Re: Fidelity 500 (FXAIX) vs Total Market (FSKAX)

The S&P Fund may simply have been around longer. Another reason is that a lot of 401k plans include an S&P Fund but not a total mkt fund.

Have a look at FZROX which is Fidelity’s proprietary total mkt index fund at 0.0% expense ratio.
by aj76er
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: chase sapphire rewards strategy
Replies: 18
Views: 1526

Re: chase sapphire rewards strategy

We only have 100k right now. We canceled a trip last month and expect to re-book sometime next year. This quarter, the Chase Freedom card has 5% points on Grocery stores so I will just continue accumulating. I only got the Sapphire (last year) for the bonus (for our trip last month). I've thought ab...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Noobvestor wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:40 pm
You're assuming that knowing terminal value in nominal dollars is desirable in itself.
Having a terminal value that is immune to interest rate movements over the duration is the thing that is desirable.
by aj76er
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I'm tired, too, so I'll use an outside source this time instead of repeating myself: "Bond investors, specifically those who invest in long-term fixed-rate bonds, are more directly susceptible to interest rate risk ." That's from an Investopedia article on managing interest rate risk. https://www.i...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

So, as an example, for a 45 yr old with a planned life expectancy of 95yrs, the optimal bond duration today would be : ((45 + 95)/2) - 45 = 25 yrs Is this correct? So using EDV for this person's entire bond allocation (today) would be reasonable? This is correct if you're planning on retiring today...
by aj76er
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I'm trying to understand and properly apply the duration formula used in this thread: using the simple formula provided upthread of (((age at start of retirement + age at end of retirement)/2) - current age) So, as an example, for a 45 yr old with a planned life expectancy of 95yrs, the optimal bond...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

As an interesting aside, I was looking to the internals of several TDF providers, and the Fidelity Freedom Index funds utilize long-term treasury bonds. For the 2045 TDF (which meets my personal target date), about 1/3 of the bonds are in Fidelity Series Long-Term Treasury Bond Index Fund, which has...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51919

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

stocks have a duration of 5 years Can you explain why this is? My intuition says that the equity duration should be longer (like 15yrs), which would change the duration needed by the bond holdings. Also, maybe somewhat off topic, but it would seem that be eliminating interest rate risk, you are inc...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 2317

Re: Intermediate term tax exempt bond fund

For what it's worth, here's a snippet from Bernstein's book: "Long-duration bonds are generally a sucker’s bet—they are quite volatile, extremely vulnerable to the ravages of inflation, and have low long-term returns. For this reason, they tend to be bad actors in a portfolio. Most experts recommen...
by aj76er
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?
Replies: 50
Views: 2798

Re: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?

Determining ones AA in retirement should not be done by feelings or emotions, but rather it can be done in a very logical and precise way, as follows: 1. Determine what your living expenses are in terms of discretionary and non-discretionary. 2. Create VPW tables over several AA and look at the SWR....
by aj76er
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Won the game early -- worried about bond holdings
Replies: 54
Views: 4846

Re: Won the game early -- worried about bond holdings

Your Stock/Bond Allocation seems fine considering that you both won the game and want to keep working. If you wanted to quit working and live off your portfolio at such a young age, then I would bump the equities to 40%. For your 401k, you could designate a portion to a TIPs fund to have some unexpe...
by aj76er
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ICSH and other ultrashort term bond funds - should I be worried?
Replies: 26
Views: 2077

Re: ICSH and other ultrashort term bond funds - should I be worried?

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:29 pm
Call me crazy but even with the recent blip I am tempted to put my EF and medium-term savings into this ETF; just nothing out there to compete with this yield in all but the craziest of markets.
I-Bonds bought this month are competitive, at least for the next six months.
by aj76er
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen
Replies: 60
Views: 3027

Re: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen

The “Needed Funds” column of your table needs to be inflation adjusted. You don’t get to treat $1000 of cash purchasing power in year 1 the same as that in year 30. Otherwise cash held for that long would be a free lunch; and it isn’t. Also, don’t forget about I-bonds. But where you add them in the ...
by aj76er
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's happening with Muni Money Market fund yields?
Replies: 141
Views: 12852

Re: What's happening with Muni Money Market fund yields?

Today I transferred $50K back to my 2.5% savings account, so my subsequent daily yields won't have as much precision. If I didn't have access to a 2.5% savings account, I'd leave the money in VMSXX for now, as my TEY based on daily yield is 1.93%, and that's still much higher than Prime MM at 0.97%...
by aj76er
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9524

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Ambitious994 wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:00 pm
So I might go up a bit later down the line
Except that the time to be taking more risk is NOW, after stocks have been beaten down. Not the other way around (later) after stocks have gone up.

Bear markets aren’t the only time in which behavioral mistakes can happen.
by aj76er
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10667

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

So at what age do equities become “toxic”? When life expectancy is within 20yrs? 15yrs? Less? Most likely it comes when one feels that their nest egg is "enough," rather than at any particular biological age. One usual definition of enough is 25x annual expenses in retirement, invested in safe, hig...
by aj76er
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10667

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Nice podcast. Thanks for posting. So at what age do equities become “toxic”? When life expectancy is within 20yrs? 15yrs? Less?
by aj76er
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 6320

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

Age: 44
AA pre-crisis: 80/20
AA post-crisis: 85/15 (over-balanced at 30% down from peak).

If we get to 40% down from peak, I’ll over-balance again to 90/10 and hold.
by aj76er
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors
Replies: 119
Views: 8157

Re: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors

I think we are headed for the zero fund portfolio here at Bogleheads. Soon, the virtues of cash stuffed in mattresses will be extolled as the bond market has down some pretty weird things during the Coronavirus bear market. You can't even rely on boring old bonds anymore. Bogleheads gave up on REIT...
by aj76er
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversifying bond funds in taxable account for high-income?
Replies: 7
Views: 323

Re: Diversifying bond funds in taxable account for high-income?

We hold bonds in tax sheltered, and IBonds. If I wanted or needed to hold bonds in taxable, I’d probably do an even split of munis and treasuries. Something like 50% VTEB and 50% VGIT. In tax sheltered, a 50/50 split of short-term investment grade and treasuries could make sense: 50% VCSH and 50% IE...
by aj76er
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 109
Views: 5274

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

The problem with X living expenses in fixed income is that it requires more decisions to maintain the portfolio. For example: If you have 10X in fixed income, and stocks decline, you must withdraw from your fixed income pile. Now you are down to, let’s say, 9X in fixed income. When do you replenish ...
by aj76er
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversifying my taxable bond holdings
Replies: 24
Views: 1126

Re: Diversifying my taxable bond holdings

I wouldn’t hold short term bond funds for short term liabilities. Individual treasuries maybe could work, but rates are low currently. Your best bet right now is a direct CD or high yield savings account. For example, at Ally you can get 1.5% for no penalty CDs. For longer term emergencies or whatev...
by aj76er
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 9 Reasons Not to Tax Loss Harvest (WCI)
Replies: 50
Views: 4303

Re: 9 Reasons Not to Tax Loss Harvest (WCI)

For those of us with workplace ESPP programs, having a bunch of TLH carryovers can be incredibly valuable when selling off the ESPP shares later on that were bought at a discount.
by aj76er
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18853
Views: 2635719

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What do you use for valuations? PE10? Buffet indicator? And where do you draw the data from? Nothing sophisticated. I look at trailing (12 month) P/E as compared to historical norms and then allow for some premium due to increased buy-backs and increased liquidity of market (as compared to history)...
by aj76er
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18853
Views: 2635719

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

aj76er, I'm thinking about doing an over rebalance also. What is your criterion for switching back to 80/20? Just curious. Thanks. Lots of ways to look at it, and much of it is personal. Annual rebalance is my default. So it would be natural to assess in a year from now. If market is up, and valuat...
by aj76er
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18853
Views: 2635719

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

VTI breached 30% down from high. BND up 1% for the day. This was my trigger to over-balance from 80/20 to 85/15, and I executed. Also booked about $65k of taxable paper losses in one TLH move from ixus to vxus. It was a good day. I’m holding here until we breach 40%, at which point I’ll consider ano...
by aj76er
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Individual stocks are you buying?
Replies: 123
Views: 9436

Re: What Individual stocks are you buying?

I generally don't buy individual stocks (except for ESPP thru my company). But I started window shopping today, and I'm eyeing these for some play money (< 5% of portfolio): XOM, P/E = 12, Div Yield = 9% JPM, P/E = 10, Div Yield = 3.5% BRK.B, P/E= 5.8 The yield on XOM is really quite remarkable; dou...
by aj76er
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VXUS vs IXUS Tracking
Replies: 0
Views: 164

VXUS vs IXUS Tracking

VXUS - VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK IXUS - ISHARES CORE MSCI TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK I've always been curious if there would be some tracking error, or noticeable divergence during extreme market movements between these two ETFs. From my limited knowledge, Vanguard uses a full replication of...
by aj76er
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18853
Views: 2635719

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We had money ready to invest, and our portfolio was underweight in international equities, so I bought some more ixus today. I think I managed to buy at about the -10% down point (from yesterday). Amazing.

The trailing P/E of xUS must be approaching single digits?
by aj76er
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”
Replies: 169
Views: 14075

Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

It’s NOT constructive to mentally covert paper losses into physical objects or salary, etc. It’s NOT constructive to anchor to a specific balance or number (eg 7 figures etc). It IS constructive to re-evaluate your risk tolerance for the future. Create a VPW table with current return estimates and a...
by aj76er
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

drgenefish wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:08 am
I wish there was a service for like $2 per month for someone to just logon and tell me that my deposit went through ok and nothing funny happened in the account. Then I’d never look.
You should be able to set alerts on your account that notify you of deposits.
by aj76er
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 295
Views: 25692

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Re-balanced my 80/20 today. Moved about 26k from total bond to S&P 500 in my 401k. If we get another 10% drop from here, I plan to over-balance to 85/15. And if we get yet another 10% (for a total of 40% down from the top) , then I’ll go to 90/10 and hold. At that point I’ll be down to just IBonds a...
by aj76er
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20917

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I am 80/20 right now. I'm 43. Next week I'll be selling all my bonds indexes and buying vtsax ETFs. I've been waiting for an opportunity like this. Thoughts??? I’m the same age and allocation. During the big drop in Dec 18, I overbalanced from 75/25 to 80/20, and have stayed the course since. Durin...
by aj76er
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?
Replies: 17
Views: 1946

Re: Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?

I found where to turn off the emails. 1. Go To "Account Features" 2. At the very bottom, there is a link: "View and edit personal information and preferences in your profile" 3. In the bottom right, there is a box with a link: "Electronic/paper mail preferences" 4. Near the bottom of the page, one c...
by aj76er
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Message on Fidelity's Bond page
Replies: 26
Views: 2551

Interesting Message on Fidelity's Bond page

At the top of fido's bond page, they have this disclaimer: "Due to the recent drop in interest rates, some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) now have negative market yields. While active markets do exist for TIPS, pricing for these securities is not currently available on Fidelity.com. ...
by aj76er
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?
Replies: 17
Views: 1946

Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?

A few months ago, I must have crossed some magical threshold at Fidelity because in the upper right-hand corner I now have some advisor person's name pop-up on my accounts page. Furthermore, I've been starting to receive "strategic" bulk emails from this person with links to generic Fidelity article...
by aj76er
Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds in retirement AA?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: No bonds in retirement AA?

If you can get by on a Safe Withdrawal Rate of 2.5%, then 100% equities has a good chance. Otherwise you better have some bonds or other uncorrelated assets (e.g. gold) to buffer a bad Sequence of Returns early in retirement.