Search found 325 matches

by aj76er
Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1829

Re: Currency risk?

As an interesting side note, currency risk is even at play when holding a US total market fund, like VTSAX, to some degree. This is because of the large amount of outsourcing done many US companies; especially in the tech sector (which is a large part of the US economy). At my own company (a mid-cap...
by aj76er
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1829

Re: Currency risk?

In the long run, I see the currency risk as small enough for me to consider it a wash. My stock allocation is 60/40 US/International, and it doesn't bother me one bit. Just my two cents. Those close to or in retirement are much more sensitive to short-term currency movements than those with long in...
by aj76er
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1829

Re: Currency risk?

Some interesting back-testing of the effects of holding international can now be done on www.portfoliocharts.com Take a typical allocation (40/20/35/5 of domestic stocks/foreign stocks/bonds/cash) and then look at the safe withdrawal rates across different countries and currencies. The addition of f...
by aj76er
Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone used Zelle?
Replies: 18
Views: 1781

Re: Anyone used Zelle?

For collecting rents, check out cozy.co
by aj76er
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with fairly large amount of money in "maybe" house fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 817

Re: What to do with fairly large amount of money in "maybe" house fund?

How much is this relative to the rest of your portfolio? If >10%, then it could produce a lot of drag due to opportunity cost. I'd probably invest it into your portfolio (e.g. buy stocks in taxable, sell stocks in tax-shelteted, buy bonds in tax-shelteted). When it comes time to withdraw, do the opp...
by aj76er
Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 200
Views: 14501

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

Dividend paying stocks and growth stocks fundamentally represent two different types of businesses. In the interest of diversification, I prefer to own both. The tax drag on dividends is unfortunate. During long bull markets in which we see 10-20% YoY growth, we tend to scoff at dividends. When a 20...
by aj76er
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for organizing bookmarks
Replies: 9
Views: 562

Re: Suggestions for organizing bookmarks

For bookmarks I use chrome with sync. But I generally don't bookmark much anymore.

Now I mostly use Evernote. You can store entire pages, or just the URL (bookmark) for reference.
by aj76er
Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses
Replies: 35
Views: 2366

Re: Budgets: how do you track irregular income and expenses

I have a spreadsheet to track expenses similar to other posters. I have expense categories in rows and months in columns. The last column sums all the expenses to show annual totals for each category. I also divide by 12 to show per month expenses (both actual and estimated which I fill in at the be...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 82
Views: 15066

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Just an FYI, I've started a wiki entry for Sharpe's WBS portfolio here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/World_B ... _Portfolio

Feel free to make additions, updates, and/or corrections!

I've probably added all I care to do for the time being :)
by aj76er
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 66
Views: 6385

Re: Fidelity Security

Thus, next year, I may do a $1 non-deductible IRA to Fidelity just to have 2FA via Symantec VIP. I will then do the other $5,499 to Vanguard to do my backdoor Roth. You could also just do a taxable brokerage account and not fund it. Seems easier. I thought there was a $2500 minimum deposit for a ta...
by aj76er
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 66
Views: 6385

Re: Fidelity Security

need403bhelp wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:53 pm
Thus, next year, I may do a $1 non-deductible IRA to Fidelity just to have 2FA via Symantec VIP. I will then do the other $5,499 to Vanguard to do my backdoor Roth.
You could also just do a taxable brokerage account and not fund it. Seems easier.
by aj76er
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2726

Re: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks

I like this approach to managing one's US/exUS split:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=226627&p=3516113#p3516113

Results in much less rebalancing
by aj76er
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Magic of Savings Rate
Replies: 97
Views: 10856

Re: The Magic of Savings Rate

I don't think the chart really works all that well at the outlier numbers. Even if my savings rate was 100%, I wouldn't be under two years from FI (I imagine that's true for most). Likewise, even if I only saved 5%, I'm fairly certain I could retire before I die (probably won't make it another 66 y...
by aj76er
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment
Replies: 24
Views: 1100

Re: Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (FBGRX) - anomaly or good investment

As a general rule, it is a bad time to buy into a fund after a long stretch of above average performance. I believe Bernstein calls this "skating to where the puck was". However, if you believe in the strategy and are willing to accept manager risk, then no harm to allocate a small part of your port...
by aj76er
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3042

Re: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds

A common piece of advice (by Larry Swedroe) is to set your AA based on your need, ability, and willingness to take risk. These will vary by individual circumstances, so It's a personal decision on how much percentage is allocated to bonds. Some things to consider: * Your fixed living costs + variabl...
by aj76er
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 2630

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

In it's short history, has anyone calculated the correlation to the global equities market or just the S&P500?

Not sure how meaningful it would be, but interesting nonetheless.
by aj76er
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 134
Views: 8980

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:58 pm
triceratop wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:37 pm
Anyway, livesoft still needs to buy me breakfast. And not oatmeal.
I'm happy to buy anyone breakfast, lunch, and/or dinner. I have met in person quite a few people who post on the forum and have always enjoyed it tremendously.
Is this because you don't like oatmeal cooked in Pepsi? ;)
by aj76er
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Memory Foam Mattress Recomendations
Replies: 51
Views: 4448

Memory Foam Mattress Recomendations

I'm in the market for a good, quality memory foam mattress. I've decided that I don't sleep well on latex (even the softest ILD's are too firm for me), so I'd like a more traditional memory foam feel to hep alleviate pressure points. I am pretty lightweight at 140lbs with broad shoulders, which is w...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Re: Shiller PE over 30

Investing in equities implies volatility and risk of losing money. There would be no premium otherwise. Set your AA based on your need, willingness, and ability to take risk. The market prices in future expectations. Sometimes expectations are met or exceeded, and other times they don't pan out. No ...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4025

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

The following points are always good advice, but perhaps even more prudent given the expected low returns moving forward:

1. Find ways to save more (budgeting, down sizing, etc)
2. Find ways to earn more (career growth, working longer, etc)
3. Pay off debt (mortgage, loans, etc)
by aj76er
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7546

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

Just remember that low cost of living and quality of life do not necessarily go hand in hand. And the converse is also true. A lot of places have been bid up massively in cost because everyone just had to move there because it WAS such a great place, and now massively overcrowded and built-up so th...
by aj76er
Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3015
Views: 882721

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

It's probably been mentioned here already, but I just watched Moneyball. Great movie. The perfect analogy for passive indexing vs active management.
by aj76er
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 47140

Re: Equifax customer information leak

My other concern is fake tax returns. Haven't seen that mentioned here much. Any concern about this?

Only advice I've seen online is to file early. Would filing for an extension provide any protection?
by aj76er
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 47140

Re: Equifax customer information leak

I was able to put in a credit freeze at Experian and Equifax, but Transunion's website crapped out (I'll try back later).

In my state, it is a $10 charge to do this at each company. What a joke. I just wrote my senator.
by aj76er
Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 11
Views: 1530

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

Interesting. 70/30 is the US/EXUS bond split found in the LifeStrategy and TR funds.

LifeStrategy Income would probably be a better choice here?

A true global bond fund (with market cap weights, as per above post) would make it trivial to hold William Sharpe's World Bond/Stock portfolio.
by aj76er
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

VPW provides for the maximum WD such that the portfolio lasts as long as the specified term. If you spend less than this, then the portfolio will last longer and/or grow.
by aj76er
Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4243

Re: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?

Why are we nitpicking the 1yr returns of a 5.5yr duration bond fund? To account for BND's duration, I hold 2yrs of expenses in Ally no-penalty CD's, and another 1yr in IBonds. And I'm working on saving another 1yr of expenses in IBonds. Thus, all together my FI allocation represents a reasonable sto...
by aj76er
Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?
Replies: 10
Views: 1580

Re: Are total bond funds much risker than cd's?

Most of my fixed income allocation is in total bond fund in tax deferred. But I also hold some short-term CDs in taxable and IBonds.

I like having ready access to funds in case of emergency or big purchase, and the CD's and IBonds also allow more room for equities in tax deferred for more growth.
by aj76er
Fri Sep 01, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4331

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

Here's an example of an adaptive AA policy in regards to US:exUS ratio: “My Asset Allocation Policy is to have 67% invested in U.S. stocks and the remainder in ex-U.S. stocks when the market value of U.S. stocks is 50% of the total value of world stocks, with the proportions to be determined each pe...
by aj76er
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4331

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

One approach for those wanting to tilt to U.S. but still allow the ratio to drift with cap weightings is to use an Adaptive Asset allocation technique similar to what William Sharpe documented in this paper: https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/aaap/wfsaaap.pdf . In the paper, Sharpe demonstrates the ...
by aj76er
Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36113

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Recently, I've been tracking the yield of my portfolio both in terms of dollars and %. Its been more of a curiosity; but lately I've started thinking about it as an income floor that the portfolio can generate, while anything over that as supplying variable income. To put numbers on it, say 2% is t...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist
Replies: 355
Views: 36113

Re: Michael Kitces 4% rule podcast on Madfientist

Recently, I've been tracking the yield of my portfolio both in terms of dollars and %. Its been more of a curiosity; but lately I've started thinking about it as an income floor that the portfolio can generate, while anything over that as supplying variable income. To put numbers on it, say 2% is to...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4331

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

These are arguments to disproportionally overweight the US, not to hold a fixed % of international. Suppose you chose to hold 60% US and 40% international. If for whatever reason US went to 70% of global market cap, would someone abiding by the arguments below continue to hold only 60% US - thus ti...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Companies/Brands You Love?
Replies: 157
Views: 10097

Re: Companies/Brands You Love?

Whustof Knives
Toyota (Prius)
Google
by aj76er
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA: Which funds to invest ?
Replies: 4
Views: 486

Re: HSA: Which funds to invest ?

I keep the required minimum in cash ($2k) to cover deductible, and the rest goes into Vanguard Institutional class S&P500, which I consider part of my long-term AA. Currently, it is a small amount, but if I'm lucky enough to have it become a large sum, then I might get more conservative with it (e.g...
by aj76er
Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity equivalent of VTIAX (VG TOTAL Intl. Stock)
Replies: 9
Views: 797

Re: Fidelity equivalent of VTIAX (VG TOTAL Intl. Stock)

I think FTIPX is the most similar to VTIAX

It has small caps and emerging. Morningstar style boxes are about identical between the two funds.

FTIGX (the ticker you listed) is the investor class shares of the same fund.
by aj76er
Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5672

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

I like how Swedroe used to put it: "If you're gonna sin, only sin a little" Valuations matter, but I don't think there's a free lunch here. I don't feel there are any asset bubbles just yet, and I believe the market is good at pricing risk/reward. Thus, "if" you get higher returns for EM over the lo...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4331

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

No, had about the same volatility and max drawdowns when not rebalanced. Let's take the case of starting with 50% US, 35% EAFE, and 15% EM held since Jan 1995 (first date of available data for EM). Here are the data for annual rebalancing, monthly rebalancing, and no rebalancing: _________CAGR_____...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 4331

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

Here are some reasons to hold a fixed percentage of international (less than market weight): 1. Because of the fact that the U.S. has a dominant currency, many people want to limit their currency risk. If the U.S. dollar does well relative to the rest of the world, then un-hedged international funds...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 29, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Portland, Oregon
Replies: 125
Views: 34963

Re: Master Thread for Portland, Oregon

gkaplan wrote:
Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:08 pm
Are you ever coming back to NW Portland?
I would be happy with a NW portland location as well :)
by aj76er
Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bad Idea to Have Zero Credit Cards?
Replies: 129
Views: 6179

Re: Bad Idea to Have Zero Credit Cards?

You pay a penalty for not using a rewards card which is equal to the amount of points you get for purchases. For example, a 2% cash back card essentially gives you a 2% discount on everything you buy (assuming you pay it off each month). Avoiding the new card bonus churn is understandable, but you s...
by aj76er
Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kitchen knife set. Good quality - Recommendations
Replies: 55
Views: 4503

Re: Kitchen knife set. Good quality - Recommendations

A couple years ago, I bought a Wusthof Ikon Chef's knife and a Wusthof paring knive. Best kitchen purchases I ever made! I use both pretty much every day. I originally bought a full set, but returned it when I realized that I'd only use these two knifes; So, then I just bought the Chef+paring knifes...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 82
Views: 15066

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Inflation-indexed bonds and cash should form the safe part of your non-risk portfolio. I believe this is what Sharpe advocates. So you could do something like: 75% WBS 25% Inflation indexed bonds Furthermore, you could use Sharpe's adaptive asset allocation ideas to get more of a 75/25 default stoc...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 82
Views: 15066

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

As a result, there's no way that I would adopt Sharpe's World Stock-Bond Portfolio . I simply won't invest 97% of my money abroad. Another way to look at this is that 75% of your money is invested in just 3% of the global economic output. What industries and/or sectors are going to drive the majori...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 82
Views: 15066

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Here's a link to a spreadsheet that helps with rebalancing of Sharpe's World Bond/Stock (WBS) portfolio. It uses the same formulas from the Matlab program he uses in RISMAT-7. In addition, it uses googlefinance() function to auto-lookup the adj. closing prices of the funds. https://www.bogleheads.or...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Core position in Fidelity
Replies: 24
Views: 2681

Re: Core position in Fidelity

My brokerage was originally FCASH, but I recently switched it to FZFXX because short-term rates are rising. For me, the sweep account is only where I temporarily pool money to make large-ish ETF purchases a few times a year. It's not really long term storage. For longer term, you could consider a sh...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1255

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

This portfolio idea, with the more complete international fund, looks a lot like the Vanguard Target funds and LifeStrategy funds. yes, similar. however, I believe the TargetDate and LifeStrategy funds are fixed percentages (with TargetDate having a glide path). Sharpe's WBS portfolio is designed t...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1255

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

Fclevz wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:43 pm
These numbers look to be the median market cap numbers for the stocks making up the index, rather than the total market cap of the entire index.

Cheers,
Fred
Yep, that explains the discrepancy. Too bad, would have been an easy place to grab the data :)
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1255

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

^ Thanks for checking the market cap numbers. Another possible source of these could be from the vanguard website thru the fund's "Portfolio & Management" page. On the VFWAX page, it lists $30.9 billion for the "FTSE All-World ex US Index" as of 06/30/2017 On the VTIAX page, it lists $24.0 billion f...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5918

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

In other words, the real problem Sharpe is trying to avoid, is for a passive investor to be putting excessive pressure on market prices and get taken advantage of, in the process. I don't think Sharpe is denying the basic mechanics of supply and demand, rather he is simply just saying that with the...