Search found 40 matches

by bmritz
Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are subscriptions that add the most value in 2020?
Replies: 93
Views: 8537

Re: What are subscriptions that add the most value?

In no particular order: Amazon Prime Costco AAA W$J print edition (for my current rate of $109.69/year) City Journal Bloomberg BusinessWeek (for my current rate of $2.00/year) Microsoft365 for six users Hulu (for my current rate of $2.27/month) The Economist (for my current rate of $47.99/year) Las...
by bmritz
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Call Options a bad idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1777

Re: Why are Call Options a bad idea?

long options is basically playing roulette. win big, lose fast. edge goes to the house (in this case, options writer). good for a bit of fun or as a tool in the portfolio. never as a core strategy Why does the “edge go to the house” in this case? Naively I’d think that “efficiency of the market” an...
by bmritz
Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...
Replies: 111
Views: 7858

Re: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...

Hello everyone, I’m curious what people’s opinions are on how bonds will perform now given the Fed’s recent admission to hold rates low until inflation is “above 2%”. Before (now) and afternoon (inflation jumps above 2% for awhile causing Fed to begin raising rates.) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fe...
by bmritz
Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity FXNAX or FUMBX for shorter term holdings
Replies: 11
Views: 1147

Re: Fidelity FXNAX or FUMBX for shorter term holdings

I’ve been using FUMBX for two years to save up A down Payment and have been happy with it.
by bmritz
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 26
Views: 1614

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

My opinion having worked in data and analytics - data is garbage and requires a lot of scrubbing. Even then, people miss things that impact the results of a black box / statistical model. The modeling process makes it more difficult to interpret results (pass the qualitative test). Basically lots o...
by bmritz
Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing money for use in 5-7 years
Replies: 31
Views: 2864

Re: Investing money for use in 5-7 years

You could also use a Roth IRA: as long as it's after 5 years from account opening date, you can remove the principle tax and penalty free, and leave the earnings in to continue growing forever. This is assuming your other retirement accounts are being funded fully. 5 years is a pretty long time. If...
by bmritz
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20309
Views: 2776242

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am starting to realize I may be tempted not to ‘stay the course’ if the markets continue to slide significantly...so far it’s been easy, as it’s not significant, but say if S&P 500 is down 30% from its all-time high I may be tempted to change my AA. I’m about 9 years from retirement and at around...
by bmritz
Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For young investors not yet seen a bear market or recession. How do you truly know your risk tolerance and plan for it?
Replies: 103
Views: 7157

Re: For young investors not yet seen a bear market or recession. How do you truly know your risk tolerance and plan for

I’m still in my twenties and have my stocks allocated at 100% US with no bonds. I have never actually been through a recession or bear market (2008 was when I was in the last year of high school). Having browsed multiple threads about risk tolerance...it seems, the thing about risk tolerance that m...
by bmritz
Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20309
Views: 2776242

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am starting to realize I may be tempted not to ‘stay the course’ if the markets continue to slide significantly...so far it’s been easy, as it’s not significant, but say if S&P 500 is down 30% from its all-time high I may be tempted to change my AA. I’m about 9 years from retirement and at around...
by bmritz
Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not utilize leveraged ETF's?
Replies: 41
Views: 5162

Re: Why not utilize leveraged ETF's?

A while back I looked into a Monthly re-balanced S&P 500 leveraged 2x Mutual Fund: http://www.direxioninvestments.com/2xmonthly. You could rebalance your personal holdings monthly to counteract the fund's leverage rebalancing and mimic the "flexible" leverage that something like a margin loan would ...
by bmritz
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 121387

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If folks are truly worried about U.S. currency or markets tanking, precious metals may well be a better diversifier than international equities, which history has shown are at least moderately correlated with U.S. equities. They certainly have been over the last 30+ years. Precious metals are not p...
by bmritz
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There will be a recession and market downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 4168

Re: There will be a recession and market downturn

I'll take the bait because this is a place do think differently from the crowd. There is no law of physics that says recessions have to happen--it is an empirical observation. Look at Australia, 26 years and counting since the last recession. Japan went from 1961 to 1993 without a recession. The Net...
by bmritz
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent
Replies: 16
Views: 2703

Re: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent

Check out the following thread on using margin to buy a balanced fund -- viewtopic.php?f=10&t=143037.
by bmritz
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Ok, so here's a couple of options you MAY want to consider. I think you're thinking the wrong way. What you actually want to do is to leverage bonds not stocks. The stocks' volatility can be a real killer, but if you leverage bonds, well, that's got some potential. In other words, keep your 90% sto...
by bmritz
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

With equity index futures, you can currently borrow at a rate of about 0.7% (roll richness) + 0.2% (drag from inability of retail investors to use anything else but cash for futures margin) = ca. 0.9% above money market rates. Assuming a long-term expected ERP (equity risk premium) of 4%, or simila...
by bmritz
Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Portfolio Theory question.
Replies: 7
Views: 1225

Re: Modern Portfolio Theory question.

I seems your 3 fund portfolios resemble the concept to balance and mitigate risk and simplify life for an old guy. The only critique I've read is that the 07' 08 market was so wacked out that MPT was near useless.... but hey that was a decade ago. Does it still work or is their a new buzz word in t...
by bmritz
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 933
Views: 267800

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Rob, I'm really curious as to how your portfolio is doing right now, with bonds and stocks both down a bit. I was also curious how this portfolio performed during the recent “correction.” Last I could follow, the portfolio was: 10% S&P 500, 5% Long Term Treasuries, 85% Short Term Treasuries Leverag...
by bmritz
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 933
Views: 267800

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Too many posts to read through. For simpleton like me, the two main considerations are: -the differential between the expected return and the margin interest rate -the potential of margin call, been a forced seller Therefore I will have only stocks in the portion of my portfolio bought with margin;...
by bmritz
Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential employer wants me to give offer - how to respond?
Replies: 63
Views: 8125

Re: Potential employer wants me to give offer - how to respond?

Just wanted to share the best link I've seen on salary negotiation. I wish I had read this before signing my last job. https://medium.freecodecamp.org/how-not-to-bomb-your-offer-negotiation-c46bb9bc7dea?gi=ab33a7682382 This will at least get you in the right mindset for the negotiation. It also give...
by bmritz
Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401K [should I rebalance]
Replies: 2
Views: 314

Re: 401K [should I rebalance]

i have not rebalanced my 401k in over 10 years. looking at my portfolio, i have approx $300k IN MY 401K. HAVE 37% OF PORTFOLIO IN LARGE CAP FUNDS (FXSIX, MEIKX, POGRX) HAVE 23% OF PORTFOLIO IN MID CAP FUNDS (FSEVX,TEGIX) HAVE 13% OF PORTFOLIO IN SMALL CAP FUNDS (DFSVX) HAVE 15% IN INTEL FUNDS (FSIV...
by bmritz
Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

1. the problem with this strategy is your borrowing rate is always higher than your lending rate (bond fund yield) therefore you always lose on the financing cost? At the beginning of this thread -- I thought the borrowing rate would essentially be 1.49%, which would be less than the expected yield...
by bmritz
Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)
Replies: 59
Views: 8125

Re: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)

^ Mind flushing out why you believe the stock to bond choice is not analogous to the TSM to (TSM + tilt) choice? One potential answer I've told myself before is that when an institution decides how to fund itself, a lot more factors come into play than just the potential terms of a stock or bond is...
by bmritz
Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

From the Bogleheads wiki: Inverse and leveraged ETFs I suggest you don't do it unless you thoroughly understand it, and once you do thoroughly understand it you won't do it. PJW He says he can undo the effect by using a monthly-rebalanced leveraged fund and rebalancing himself monthly to counteract...
by bmritz
Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

OP here. Thanks for pointing that out -- on the prospectus and in Fidelity it lists the net expense ratio as 1.49%. Is it possible that there are leverage costs above the net expense ratio that aren't quoted on the Fidelity page? I haven't heard of that -- but that is why I'm asking here, in case I...
by bmritz
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

P.S. Just for completeness here is the worksheet I have for my 90 stock/30 bond portfolio in a 50% down scenario: So you modeled a situation where the 2X monthly isn't hurt by going 50% down compared to a non-levered portfolio. The actual returns on DXELX will show you with certainty that your mode...
by bmritz
Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

bmritz, just to be clear--since you don't spell it out: are you explicitly following the strategy espoused by Ayres and Nalebuff, in an article entitled "Mortgage Your Retirement," and their later book? Those are the people who inspired Market Timer. Or did you come by the same idea independently? ...
by bmritz
Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Whoa. I had no idea DXSLX had been out for such a long time. I assumed it was something new. Did you actually take a look at the growth chart? For comparison, I'm going compare it (blue) to VFINX (orange, the Vanguard 500 index fund), and ULPIX (green, ProFunds UltraBull Fund) (a daily -rebalanced ...
by bmritz
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

OP here. Thanks for pointing that out -- on the prospectus and in Fidelity it lists the net expense ratio as 1.49%. Is it possible that there are leverage costs above the net expense ratio that aren't quoted on the Fidelity page? I haven't heard of that -- but that is why I'm asking here, in case I...
by bmritz
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

I use leverage and I'm not going to lecture you about it. But I'm not doing it via an expensive fund. I didn't look at the fund, but I think your assumption that the ER includes leverage costs is most likely not correct. OP here. Thanks for pointing that out -- on the prospectus and in Fidelity it ...
by bmritz
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

I use leverage and I'm not going to lecture you about it. But I'm not doing it via an expensive fund. I didn't look at the fund, but I think your assumption that the ER includes leverage costs is most likely not correct. OP here. Thanks for pointing that out -- on the prospectus and in Fidelity it ...
by bmritz
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Ok — provocative title, I know…hear me out... The long and short of it is that I want to buy a leveraged mutual fund DXSLX to move towards a more efficient portfolio by keeping my stock exposure constant and adding to my bond exposure. Read on for details. Here is my current situation: Emergency fun...
by bmritz
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 22 y/o - First Time 401(k) Help
Replies: 4
Views: 561

Re: 22 y/o - First Time 401(k) Help

Hi Nick, Welcome to the forum. #1: Per the wiki at https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement , bond funds are less tax-efficient than stock funds, so should be prioritized in tax-advantaged accounts. Some may disagree and prioritize stocks in tax advantaged accounts, because stock...
by bmritz
Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?
Replies: 190
Views: 16985

Re: How much do you spend on food per month, per person?

We're at $400/person/month, for 2 adults for groceries, and $300 more for restaurants.

I think that's a little high -- there's certainly a lot of fat in there we could cut, but we don't need to. My wife enjoys cooking good meals from natural and organic ingredients that might cost a bit more.
by bmritz
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5591

Re: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:49 pm It’s insane to me that you could be 100% bonds and in the worst year still manage to loss 8% ... thanks for posting that chart
You're welcome! And I thought the same thing -- what's more insane, the fact that 100% bonds lost 8% in 1969 or gained 32.6% in 1982!?
by bmritz
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5591

Re: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?

To get a feel for the relative risk vs. returns, here is a table from Vanguard of historical returns in the past 91 years. Keep in mind that the table only tracks gains/losses for 91 calendar years. Gains and losses within 1 year periods can be larger than this table shows, because they might occur ...
by bmritz
Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?
Replies: 56
Views: 5591

Re: 28 Years Old: In the current market, what % into bonds?

Just to round out the suggestions given so far: I'll turn 28 in a month, and I'm 90/10. The allocation suggestions in the first responses to this thread are: 100/0, 90/10, 85/15, 80/20, 75/25. That alone should tell you that this is a personal decision. Why is 90/10 right for me? My thoughts mirror ...
by bmritz
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?
Replies: 155
Views: 14785

Re: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?

Me: $5,500 in a Roth IRA, $10,000 in a Roth 401k + $600 employer match (changed employers in Oct. -- previous didn't have a 401k plan)
Wife: $5,500 in Roth IRA

Ages: 27 & 25
by bmritz
Wed Mar 02, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of $1 in taxable account vs. in traditional 401K?
Replies: 50
Views: 4778

Re: value of $1 in taxable account vs. in traditional 401K?

I think this may be what the OP wants: Given: x(t) = amount after tax in 401k at time t y(t) = amount after tax in taxable at time t x0 = *nominal* (before tax) initial amount in 401k y0 = *nominal* (before tax) initial amount in taxable (assume no accumulated capital gains owed) i = rate of return ...
by bmritz
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars

I do something similar to this. I don't track shares, but I do track principal invested--which is akin my savings rate. I sometimes sell investments to fund my education, so I'd be a little hazy on how much net I actually put into the market over the year if I did not keep records. I figure that if ...
by bmritz
Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First Time Tax Loss Harvesting With Weekly DCA -- My Plan
Replies: 1
Views: 472

First Time Tax Loss Harvesting With Weekly DCA -- My Plan

Hello all, I've been lurking for a while and am amazed at the breadth and depth of the advice given here. I was index investing before coming across this forum, but it has influenced me to change my strategies in several ways in just the several months I have been following it--so thank you all. I a...