Search found 465 matches

by kosomoto
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 16333

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

I used to be aggressively US only on this forum. I wouldn’t say these threads changed my mind directly, but they made me think about things and eventually my own research led to my decision to go 90% Total World and 10% REIT from a portfolio that was a sliced and dice value tilted mess of US only fu...
by kosomoto
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's All About the Earnings Growth
Replies: 19
Views: 2147

Re: It's All About the Earnings Growth

Last week, J.P. Morgan published the latest update to their quarterly chartbook, and the first one I usually check out is their graph of global earnings-per-share growth (below), comparing the U.S., Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets since 2006. It's not hard to see why the U.S. market has generall...
by kosomoto
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 22110

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is now $336 billion (according to https://coinmarketcap.com/) of which bitcoin accounts for 60%. By comparison, the total market cap of global stocks (including developed and emerging, with float adjustments) is $49.6 trillion (according to http://www.ftse.c...
by kosomoto
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 22110

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio. Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other t...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 22110

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Gold, collector cars, art, Air Jordans.. all can appreciate without producing cashflow and are widely accepted as forms of investment. Accepted by who? Few people think gold will increase faster than the rate of inflation which makes ...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 22110

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Bitcoin is NOT an investment. It does not produce cash flow or the promise of future cash flow. It produces nothing. Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Bonds, stocks, real estate all produce cash flow or have the potential to do so. No matter what happens with bitcoin i...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 555
Views: 49242

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

A lot of posts I’m seeing mention the time aspect of managing yourself and low cap rates. I personally bought a rental property roughly one year ago (through Roofstock, a marketplace that holds your hand through the buying process) and I chose a house that was occupied already and produced enough ca...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7846

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Well, it is true as a market cap whole the rest of the world has performed worse. But not all countries have in the last several years, particularly in the emerging markets. For instance, the Russian and Brazilian stock markets have handily outperformed the US stock market since January 2016. Even ...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 894

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

Raising capital via new shares is not the only way to raise capital. They can take on debt - I’m not sure why you ignored that option. I’m not saying no REITs raise capital by selling shares - I’m saying that option isn’t always the best if you have a deal you need to move quickly on. Getting debt ...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 894

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

If you’re suggesting the REIT should sell common shares to buy more deals - it is not that easy. If there are deals out there that are worthwhile they usually aren’t on the market long and diluting shares is not a short process. No, this happens all of the time. First, not sure what you mean by "di...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 894

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

The cap rate on the property and the yield on the security aren't the same thing. Say I've got a $1M building that is throwing off 6% in cash ($60,000). Now if I securitize it into a REIT, and the market bids up those shares to $2M in value, that same $60,000 will only be a 3% yield. This doesn't m...
by kosomoto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 894

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

I wonder why REIT yields are not higher. Vanguard's site says the dividend yield of VNQ is 3.64%. At CBRE I see cap rates for different kinds of real estate as follows: 6.34% Industrial 7.50% Retail 5.26% Multifamily 7.97% Hotel 6.71% Office If a typical cap rate on real estate is 6% why can't the ...
by kosomoto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 894

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

I wonder why REIT yields are not higher. Vanguard's site says the dividend yield of VNQ is 3.64%. At CBRE I see cap rates for different kinds of real estate as follows: 6.34% Industrial 7.50% Retail 5.26% Multifamily 7.97% Hotel 6.71% Office If a typical cap rate on real estate is 6% why can't the ...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Hmmm... Maybe it's not dropping: AAPL 9/26/2015 ( Net Tangible Assets ) $110,346,000,000 ÷ ( Shares Outstanding ): 5,578,753,000 ------------------------------ Net Tangible Assets Per Share: $19.78 9/29/2018 ( Net Tangible Assets ) $107,147,000,000 ÷ ( Shares Outstanding ): 4,754,986,000 ----------...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Regarding the global situation - - here's a link discussing the issue for Japan relative to the USA and Europe: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Japan-Inc.-s-goodwill-assets-create-M-A-advantage Thank you! That at least gives us a little more data, but we still seem to be really in ...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

I could obviously go on and on down the list but roughly half the companies in the top 30 holdings (which makes up a huge percentage of the total market) have been LOSING tangible book value over the last four years . What is going on? OP, would you mind sharing your source? Also, did you see a cha...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Slick8503 wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:53 am
How do international stocks compare using this metric over the same period?
I could not find any similar data for international stocks, if somebody finds something, I would be extremely grateful.
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

One big driver in the drop in tangible book values is the transition to a U.S. economy driven less by manufacturing and more by service and technology industries, I believe — one where patents and brands matter more than physical plants. The S&P 500’s total book value, which includes the value of p...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

I decided to take a look at the holdings of the US Total Market fund that Vanguard offers and I was shocked to see tangible book value dropping for so many of the top stocks! Tons of the top holdings have lower tangible book value in 2018 than in 2015! Why is tangible book value dropping for these p...
by kosomoto
Fri May 24, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 124
Views: 14489

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Bogleheads generally seem to be of the view that markets are efficient. So it can't be possible that one sub-sector of the market, or one sub asset class isn't being valued appropriately. In that context, I can see why REITs aren't special and there is no need to weight them higher than they alread...
by kosomoto
Fri May 24, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2588

Re: Who killed value?

With the value factor on track to deliver it's worst decade-long returns since long ago, the question is "what happened?" According to Dr. Bernstein, maybe low inflation is a culprit: In order to examine the problem, I took advantage of Ken French’s wonderful Web site and downloaded the HmL series ...
by kosomoto
Thu May 23, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 8578

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

:shock: U.S. equity returns: 4% – 6% U.S. aggregate bond returns: 2.5% – 4.5% International equities returns: 7.5% – 9.5% International bond returns (hedged): 2% – 4% Vanguard also said it sees no imminent recession threat, and said the U.S. economy is currently in the mid- to late-stages of the bu...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 5329

Re: International bonds

If you believe the US dollar is going to do poorly and other developed countries are going to be fine, sure, international bonds have a place. But their yield is so low that you NEED international currencies to beat the dollar just to get the same return as US bonds since they have higher yields. T...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 5329

Re: International bonds

...Saying US bonds don’t return more than international is just silly.... But saying "they haven't returned more" is just factual . Well, to be specific: it is a simple fact that, since inception of Vanguard's international bond index fund, the bonds in Vanguard's biggest US bond index fund haven't...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 5329

Re: International bonds

If you believe the US dollar is going to do poorly and other developed countries are going to be fine, sure, international bonds have a place. But their yield is so low that you NEED international currencies to beat the dollar just to get the same return as US bonds since they have higher yields. T...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 5329

Re: International bonds

Saying US bonds don’t return more than international is just silly. At some point you need to acknowledge that interest rates are lower in Europe and other developed countries and that rates are higher in the US for the same risk level bonds. So that tells us that rates have less room to move downw...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 60
Views: 5329

Re: International bonds

Saying US bonds don’t return more than international is just silly. At some point you need to acknowledge that interest rates are lower in Europe and other developed countries and that rates are higher in the US for the same risk level bonds. So that tells us that rates have less room to move downwa...
by kosomoto
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4387

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

Similar to sports betting, it is critical that the site can keep an equal amount of money on both sides of “the line”. If they get too much on one side or the other and that comes to pass, they will “take a bath” on that bet as they say in Vegas and will need to “cover” with money from outside of t...
by kosomoto
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4387

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

Similar to sports betting, it is critical that the site can keep an equal amount of money on both sides of “the line”. If they get too much on one side or the other and that comes to pass, they will “take a bath” on that bet as they say in Vegas and will need to “cover” with money from outside of t...
by kosomoto
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4387

Re: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

Greenman72 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:56 pm
You could just invest in a triple-leveraged inverse ETF. Probably get the same thing.
I'm not sure you would, if the market falls 30% you'd only get 90% minus attrition.

Plus your downside is literally unlimited.
by kosomoto
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 426% return if there is a recession in 2019?
Replies: 23
Views: 4387

426% return if there is a recession in 2019?

For all you bears out there who have a fun money fund, I found something interesting. If you believe there will be a recession in 2019 you can make a 426% return (minus 5% upon withdrawal). PredictIt is a legal betting website run by a university. I have always followed this website since I find it ...
by kosomoto
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?
Replies: 33
Views: 3552

Re: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

I used to wonder about this but I’m not sure if returns get impacted by the national debt of their country. They certainly don’t seem to. Germany has a huge budget surplus currently and is paying down the national debt but their companies have not been performing well from a return perspective.
by kosomoto
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111721

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It's just that comparing current price of VGTSX to the price in 2000 doesn't tell you much about compounded returns with dividends reinvested, which turns out to have been 91% which is not really "going nowhere" since 2000. Besides, it's misleading because VGTSX delivered similar returns to U.S. st...
by kosomoto
Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?
Replies: 92
Views: 12766

Re: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?

Lately, there has been a remarkable absence of threads asking Why Not 100% Stocks? But the last few weeks provide a definitive answer to this frequent question. If someone is scared off by the performance of the past couple weeks, I would question if they have the mindset to hold stocks at all, let...
by kosomoto
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate) vs. VNQ (Real Estate)
Replies: 5
Views: 1575

Re: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate) vs. VNQ (Real Estate)

Only a single response in an entire week. Guess nobody is interested in International Real Estate. You will notice assets of VNQI are tiny by Vanguard standards. I looked into VNQI and I didn’t like it because it wasn’t just REITs, as somebody pointed out it’s diversified real estate companies whic...
by kosomoto
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111721

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I have to chuckle at all this analysis. Total US is out-performing Intl because 12.7% of its assets are in: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook. If those 5 continue their run, Total US will outperform Intl ... if they don't, it won't. This is false. US value funds have also dr...
by kosomoto
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111721

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I have to chuckle at all this analysis. Total US is out-performing Intl because 12.7% of its assets are in: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook. If those 5 continue their run, Total US will outperform Intl ... if they don't, it won't. This is false. US value funds have also dr...
by kosomoto
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19388

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

CAPEtown is the Crazytown. It's filled with folks who think that something that happened ten years ago is a firm foundation for predicting the future. The mayor appears to be a guy with a fancy trophy who was never really "in the game." Crazy indeed!! :oops: I agree, earnings from 9 years ago aren’...
by kosomoto
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2802

Is high inflation a good thing while working?

Hi all, Just wondering about inflation. From my simple (and perhaps flawed) math it seems that people who are working and save/invest money should want higher inflation. For example, let's look at a Boglehead who spends 50k a year and makes 150K pre tax, 100k after tax. If inflation is low, let's sa...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oversimplifying expected return on rental properties
Replies: 12
Views: 1240

Re: Oversimplifying expected return on rental properties

Two huge assumptions 1. Your rental income will equal the combined costs of the mortgage, property tax, maintenance, property manager (if any), and any other cost. In other words zero net cash flow. 2. The price of the property can be expected to keep up with inflation over the long term. With thos...
by kosomoto
Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 16252

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

I'll say one thing, you are a pretty good troll. I admire the way you shift the discussion while never answering specific questions. Well played! You move quickly to the absurd claim that it is easy for someone with a middle class income to get to FI (whatever that means to you) in five years or le...
by kosomoto
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111721

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here the telltale chart for international vs US: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/images/Viewpoints/II/international_stock_update_chart2.jpg Bogle omits this one from his famous presentation "The Telltale Chart": https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html And how ar...
by kosomoto
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 16252

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Here's a simple question for you: If a 60 year old withdraws $250K from a Roth IRA in one year, are you willing to admit that there would be no tax and no penalty on the withdrawal? 1) From what I have observed, this is the order of dollar amounts (highest to lowest) in the TYPICAL index fund portf...
by kosomoto
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 158
Views: 16252

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Nope. The only way to avoid taxes and penalties with index funds is to decide to live a life of scarcity and poverty. I have read the same blogs and guides that you have. You fill in the 0-15% income brackets. Which is another way of saying, have less income and be less wealthy. See here: https://w...
by kosomoto
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111721

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

As a person who barely squeaked through high school and was kicked out of college I look over our 29 year investing history and our experience simply has been: International Funds are riskier, more costly and have less return. They are as Un-Boglelike as can be and yet for some reason nobody actual...