Search found 487 matches

by kosomoto
Fri May 01, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do ETFs pay class action lawsuit settlements to shareholders?
Replies: 0
Views: 182

Do ETFs pay class action lawsuit settlements to shareholders?

Hi all, Strange question, but I got a small amount of money from a class action lawsuit regarding shares I purchased in 2015. This got me thinking, if the major shareholders are funds/ETFs, who gets the money? Does Vanguard or whoever make claims in class action lawsuits and get paid? If so, does th...
by kosomoto
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26090

Re: The end of cruise ships

LawProf wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm
I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
Quite a risk indeed! The hope is that there would still be at least one that gobbles the rest up and having shares in it.
by kosomoto
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26090

The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]

So is the market pricing in the end of cruise lines? Norwegian is down 70% and Royal Caribbean down almost as much. Am I the only one thinking buying a basket of all the cruise line stocks seems like a fun idea? I find it hard to believe the industry will go away and PE based on a normal year’s oper...
by kosomoto
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296842

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If the virus mostly kills the elderly, then if you take emotions out of this wouldn’t this benefit the world financially?

Pensions and social security will have more funds than they planned due to large scale early deaths.
by kosomoto
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A shares impact on VT
Replies: 9
Views: 1143

Re: A shares impact on VT

I’d like to know the answer to this as well. China being under 4% of total market cap seems small.
by kosomoto
Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US national debt - talk me down!
Replies: 42
Views: 3344

Re: US national debt - talk me down!

Real estate is the answer.

Rents rise with inflation.

Property values rise with inflation.

Tax free capital gains if you live there two years.

Mortgage is also helpful in high inflation as you’ll be paying it down with inflated dollars.
by kosomoto
Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 10763

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Well, the Euro used to trade at 1.5 per USD in 2008 and now it's 1.1 . In 2008 the pound traded at 2 per USD and now it's 1.29 . Yen is basically flat. Almost every other currency fell compared to the USD in the same time frame. Given that the majority of outperformance of the US market is from 200...
by kosomoto
Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 10763

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Have you looked at long run returns adjusted for currency movements? I used to be in the 100% US camp until I realized most of the current outperformance is simply from currencies fluctuating. I've been curious about the currency effect. It obviously has an impact, but I haven't taken the time to f...
by kosomoto
Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 10763

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

Have you looked at long run returns adjusted for currency movements? I used to be in the 100% US camp until I realized most of the current outperformance is simply from currencies fluctuating. When you look at international returns in their own currency, returns are way better than in USD and in the...
by kosomoto
Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 15
Views: 2091

Re: Emerging Market Funds: They May Not Enhance Asset Allocation

I asked PortfolioVisualizer to find me what would have been the optimum allocation between these mutual funds Jan 1995 - Sep 2019. I forced the allocation of Total Bond to be 40% but let PortfolioVisualizer vary the other four. VTSMX Vanguard Total [US] Stock Mkt Index VEURX Vanguard European Stock...
by kosomoto
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to allow fractional stock trading (WSJ)
Replies: 50
Views: 6822

Re: Schwab to allow fractional stock trading (WSJ)

Fascinating - you would be able to equal weight the sp500 for zero commission and zero expense ratio.

I’m getting a bit excited thinking about creating my own indexes.
by kosomoto
Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?
Replies: 38
Views: 3797

Re: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?

RULE #1 Don't look at the yield on BNDX, look at the return RULE #2 Understand BNDX returns are not only from the yield or NAV changes, but also hedging RULE #3 Don't use BNDX if you are not an investor targeting USD For BNDX, you will also get a hedge return as short term US rates are higher than ...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

I understand how buybacks work. I didn’t say they decrease share value. I am saying valuations matter and if a company has nothing better to invest in and will return that cash to shareholders, I’d prefer to get it in cash (rather than buybacks) to diversify across the broad market. Wait, aren’t bu...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Good thought but I’m not sure that is true. The stock could be split limitlessly. And stock held by the company would essentially be taken off the market. All these things are fluid and just require shareholder approval. If the stock is being diluted at the same time they are buying shares back, th...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

I hear the "cap gains and dividends are ultimately the same" and the "cap gains are taxed advantageously" crowds, and these notions have some truth to them. But taking advantage of them cannot be done in an entirely passive fashion. But ultimately, like everything else, all companies eventually die...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Aren’t stock buybacks equivalent to dividends but with better tax efficiency? Utilities and other companies could just do that. Didn’t Apple do a large buy back rather than issue cash as a dividend? Isn’t that better for the investor? If a company does buybacks consistently eventually the company w...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Because many companies can't profitably reinvest the money into their business. It is not accurate to say not paying dividends would lead to an equivalent or greater increase in capital gains. In most situations, investors would be worse off. Aren’t stock buybacks equivalent to dividends but with b...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Because many companies can't profitably reinvest the money into their business. It is not accurate to say not paying dividends would lead to an equivalent or greater increase in capital gains. In most situations, investors would be worse off. Aren’t stock buybacks equivalent to dividends but with b...
by kosomoto
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13191

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Because many companies can't profitably reinvest the money into their business. It is not accurate to say not paying dividends would lead to an equivalent or greater increase in capital gains. In most situations, investors would be worse off. This 100%. The “dividends are useless” crowd completely ...
by kosomoto
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 33
Views: 3359

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

Sure I am. The earnings yield of stocks is related to the real expected return as follows: The price of a stock S=Div/(r-g) S the stock price, r the return, and g the dividend growth rate, or IOW r=S/Div+g, the return the perpetual payout of the dividend plus dividend growth. But dividend growth co...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 33
Views: 3359

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

But the historical CAPE becomes higher too. And it looks like there is a greater difference in the older data, which would effectively mean the current CAPE is lower than we think: Though many CAPE users seem to think it's a good idea, I don't compare CAPE with it's history, as then you are implici...
by kosomoto
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China's No. 2 Auditor Is Accused of Faking Data; Clients' IPOs Are Halted
Replies: 16
Views: 1895

Re: China's No. 2 Auditor Is Accused of Faking Data; Clients' IPOs Are Halted

Very interesting. One reason I am wary of investing in China, not sure I can trust the numbers. But isn't that exactly why the P/E is so low? .... Just 13. The market has already heavily discounted their earnings, presumably because of reasons like this. If we can’t trust the numbers it might as we...
by kosomoto
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 21775

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

I used to be aggressively US only on this forum. I wouldn’t say these threads changed my mind directly, but they made me think about things and eventually my own research led to my decision to go 90% Total World and 10% REIT from a portfolio that was a sliced and dice value tilted mess of US only fu...
by kosomoto
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's All About the Earnings Growth
Replies: 19
Views: 2655

Re: It's All About the Earnings Growth

Last week, J.P. Morgan published the latest update to their quarterly chartbook, and the first one I usually check out is their graph of global earnings-per-share growth (below), comparing the U.S., Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets since 2006. It's not hard to see why the U.S. market has generall...
by kosomoto
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27104

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is now $336 billion (according to https://coinmarketcap.com/) of which bitcoin accounts for 60%. By comparison, the total market cap of global stocks (including developed and emerging, with float adjustments) is $49.6 trillion (according to http://www.ftse.c...
by kosomoto
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27104

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Bitcoin is an investment the way Gold is an investment: as a storage of wealth, and as a way to diversify your portfolio. Bitcoin is not a transactional currency, although it can be used as one. Just as you don’t pay for groceries in gold, you shouldn’t use Bitcoin to purchase items online. Other t...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27104

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Gold, collector cars, art, Air Jordans.. all can appreciate without producing cashflow and are widely accepted as forms of investment. Accepted by who? Few people think gold will increase faster than the rate of inflation which makes ...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27104

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Bitcoin is NOT an investment. It does not produce cash flow or the promise of future cash flow. It produces nothing. Every investment produces cash flow or the promise of cash flow. Bonds, stocks, real estate all produce cash flow or have the potential to do so. No matter what happens with bitcoin i...
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1029
Views: 105691

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

A lot of posts I’m seeing mention the time aspect of managing yourself and low cap rates. I personally bought a rental property roughly one year ago (through Roofstock, a marketplace that holds your hand through the buying process) and I chose a house that was occupied already and produced enough ca...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8570

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Well, it is true as a market cap whole the rest of the world has performed worse. But not all countries have in the last several years, particularly in the emerging markets. For instance, the Russian and Brazilian stock markets have handily outperformed the US stock market since January 2016. Even ...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1018

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

Raising capital via new shares is not the only way to raise capital. They can take on debt - I’m not sure why you ignored that option. I’m not saying no REITs raise capital by selling shares - I’m saying that option isn’t always the best if you have a deal you need to move quickly on. Getting debt ...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1018

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

If you’re suggesting the REIT should sell common shares to buy more deals - it is not that easy. If there are deals out there that are worthwhile they usually aren’t on the market long and diluting shares is not a short process. No, this happens all of the time. First, not sure what you mean by "di...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1018

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

The cap rate on the property and the yield on the security aren't the same thing. Say I've got a $1M building that is throwing off 6% in cash ($60,000). Now if I securitize it into a REIT, and the market bids up those shares to $2M in value, that same $60,000 will only be a 3% yield. This doesn't m...
by kosomoto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1018

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

I wonder why REIT yields are not higher. Vanguard's site says the dividend yield of VNQ is 3.64%. At CBRE I see cap rates for different kinds of real estate as follows: 6.34% Industrial 7.50% Retail 5.26% Multifamily 7.97% Hotel 6.71% Office If a typical cap rate on real estate is 6% why can't the ...
by kosomoto
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT yields and real estate cap rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1018

Re: REIT yields and real estate cap rates

I wonder why REIT yields are not higher. Vanguard's site says the dividend yield of VNQ is 3.64%. At CBRE I see cap rates for different kinds of real estate as follows: 6.34% Industrial 7.50% Retail 5.26% Multifamily 7.97% Hotel 6.71% Office If a typical cap rate on real estate is 6% why can't the ...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Hmmm... Maybe it's not dropping: AAPL 9/26/2015 ( Net Tangible Assets ) $110,346,000,000 ÷ ( Shares Outstanding ): 5,578,753,000 ------------------------------ Net Tangible Assets Per Share: $19.78 9/29/2018 ( Net Tangible Assets ) $107,147,000,000 ÷ ( Shares Outstanding ): 4,754,986,000 ----------...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Regarding the global situation - - here's a link discussing the issue for Japan relative to the USA and Europe: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Japan-Inc.-s-goodwill-assets-create-M-A-advantage Thank you! That at least gives us a little more data, but we still seem to be really in ...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

I could obviously go on and on down the list but roughly half the companies in the top 30 holdings (which makes up a huge percentage of the total market) have been LOSING tangible book value over the last four years . What is going on? OP, would you mind sharing your source? Also, did you see a cha...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

Slick8503 wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:53 am
How do international stocks compare using this metric over the same period?
I could not find any similar data for international stocks, if somebody finds something, I would be extremely grateful.
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

... Brands and patents simply aren't worth the cost... Can you elaborate on why you feel that way? Someone that owns the patent on a product can license it and collect fees and royalties that can scale up indefinitely without sinking the expenses into actual property/plant/labor etc.. Sure, I can e...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

One big driver in the drop in tangible book values is the transition to a U.S. economy driven less by manufacturing and more by service and technology industries, I believe — one where patents and brands matter more than physical plants. The S&P 500’s total book value, which includes the value of p...
by kosomoto
Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

I decided to take a look at the holdings of the US Total Market fund that Vanguard offers and I was shocked to see tangible book value dropping for so many of the top stocks! Tons of the top holdings have lower tangible book value in 2018 than in 2015! Why is tangible book value dropping for these p...
by kosomoto
Fri May 24, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 124
Views: 15204

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Bogleheads generally seem to be of the view that markets are efficient. So it can't be possible that one sub-sector of the market, or one sub asset class isn't being valued appropriately. In that context, I can see why REITs aren't special and there is no need to weight them higher than they alread...
by kosomoto
Fri May 24, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2773

Re: Who killed value?

With the value factor on track to deliver it's worst decade-long returns since long ago, the question is "what happened?" According to Dr. Bernstein, maybe low inflation is a culprit: In order to examine the problem, I took advantage of Ken French’s wonderful Web site and downloaded the HmL series ...
by kosomoto
Thu May 23, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 9267

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

:shock: U.S. equity returns: 4% – 6% U.S. aggregate bond returns: 2.5% – 4.5% International equities returns: 7.5% – 9.5% International bond returns (hedged): 2% – 4% Vanguard also said it sees no imminent recession threat, and said the U.S. economy is currently in the mid- to late-stages of the bu...
by kosomoto
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International bonds
Replies: 66
Views: 7141

Re: International bonds

If you believe the US dollar is going to do poorly and other developed countries are going to be fine, sure, international bonds have a place. But their yield is so low that you NEED international currencies to beat the dollar just to get the same return as US bonds since they have higher yields. T...