Search found 416 matches

by kosomoto
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

As a person who barely squeaked through high school and was kicked out of college I look over our 29 year investing history and our experience simply has been: International Funds are riskier, more costly and have less return. They are as Un-Boglelike as can be and yet for some reason nobody actual...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Also, you suggest that something "Fundamentally different is going on." Amen... that's another great concern of mine and that is one of the itches I am trying to scratch while reading through responses. I think there is real and valid reasons to question International Investing - Why we ever went d...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Also, you suggest that something "Fundamentally different is going on." Amen... that's another great concern of mine and that is one of the itches I am trying to scratch while reading through responses. I think there is real and valid reasons to question International Investing - Why we ever went d...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund ( VTSMX ) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ( VGTSX ) was 4/29/1996. Per Morningstar , as of 8/13/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/30/1996, you would currentl...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you made the same case at 5 or even 10 years, I would not...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you made the same case at 5 or even 10 years, I would not...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you made the same case at 5 or even 10 years, I would not...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

VEA Stats: Top holdings include: Nestle, Toyota, Shell, BP P/E TTM = 14.6 SEC Yield = 2.4% As a “valuation” guy, what’s not to like? P.S. Does anyone know of a place (similar to Shillers website for SP500) to find historical data on “International stocks”... Is it really a "value" if the PE for int...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Bonds have been underperforming lately. Are you cutting back on those too? Perhaps you should consider buying only the top performing asset classes in the last 10 years and report back in 10 years how you did. +1 OP: How about buying Bitcoins? :twisted: I know you're being sarcastic, but all the pe...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=2000&endYear=2009&initialAmount=2000000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&portfolio1=Custom&portfolio2=Custom&portfolio3=Custom&TotalSt...
by kosomoto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 283
Views: 17548

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund ( VTSMX ) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ( VGTSX ) was 4/29/1996. Per Morningstar , as of 8/13/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/30/1996, you would currentl...
by kosomoto
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 199
Views: 17806

Re: 1800+ ETFs commission free today

This article from today says they are available today, weird.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/vanguar ... sting.html
by kosomoto
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 199
Views: 17806

1800+ ETFs commission free today

[merged this post and its replies into the existing thread - moderator prudent]

Vanguard is supposed to have 1800+ commission free ETFs starting today, where do I find a list of them?
by kosomoto
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 671

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

You're probably going to have to be a market timer to get a rental house that cash flows after hiring a property management company. Ie you may have to wait for the market to turn. At that point though, it would be tempting to just buy equities which would also be on sale. Even with a management co...
by kosomoto
Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?
Replies: 17
Views: 671

Re: Real estate investing - cons of investing in REITS vs physical house?

Also REIT funds have 2 levels of fees versus a physical house. There is a fund fee for managing the fund of REITs and a fee for managing the underlying real estate by each REIT. This can add up. It is almost 4.5% for the low cost Vanguard REIT fund. Packer VGSLX has an expense ratio of 12 basis poi...
by kosomoto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 363
Views: 16100

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I recently bought my first investment property off Roofstock for 137k and it rents for 1250. Going to be many years before I can tell you the returns. It should at least have positive cash flow most years. Honestly I just wanted some long term debt as an inflation hedge.
by kosomoto
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 19
Views: 1945

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

For those who invest in real estate, how do you calculate it and integrate it with a bogleheads style asset allocation? Do you just count the cumulative amount of cash invested? Or do you approximate current real estate value of principle paid? I’m 100% equity and real estate. My 401k/IRA are all e...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules
Replies: 5
Views: 1431

Re: S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules

Is it really four consecutive quarters of earnings? I found this from a PDF about eligibility for S&P indexes: The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should t...
by kosomoto
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules
Replies: 5
Views: 1431

S&P 500 Compromised - Committee Chooses to Break Their Own Rules

Is nobody else upset that the S&P 500 broke their own rules and added Twitter? Twitter has not had four straight quarters of profitability which is a requirement for joining the index.

If something as commonly used as the S&P 500 doesn’t care about their own rules, why trust it?
by kosomoto
Fri May 18, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you concerned that over 75% of IPOs are unprofitable?
Replies: 8
Views: 916

Are you concerned that over 75% of IPOs are unprofitable?

The WSJ shows a graph of the percent of unprofitable companies doing IPOs, it hasn’t been this high since the dot com bubble. Do companies like Snapchat worry you about what you hold? I value old school profit and returning that profit to shareholders. I don’t like investing in the “possibility” of ...
by kosomoto
Wed May 09, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics
Replies: 21
Views: 1858

Re: ETF's vs. Mutual Funds in Market Panics

Most bogleheads don’t use stop losses so most bogleheads don’t care. If anything, flash crashes are an opportunity to make hundreds of thousands of dollars within a day, assuming you had cash lying around for a down payment of a house or something.
by kosomoto
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7548

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:56 am
A nitpick: REITs are not real estate. Real Estate may very well be special, we don't know.
Also this. Real estate direct investments are extremely special in the fact that taxes are done way differently. They also provide leverage that cannot be subject to a margin call unlike stock leverage.
by kosomoto
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7548

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

REITs are inherently special because the underlying companies have tax advantages that ordinary companies do not. When combined with retirement accounts REITs are great.
by kosomoto
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 11345

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

The 'single greatest predictor of future stock market returns', the average investor allocation to equities , currently suggests that the next 10 years' returns will average 2.83%. I read the article looking for the 2.83% figure but couldn't find it. It says instead that the metric suggests a futur...
by kosomoto
Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable appreciation assumptions?
Replies: 4
Views: 321

Re: Reasonable appreciation assumptions?

Look up the Case-Shiller Housing Index. It has long term inflation appreciation of homes at between 0% to 1%. HCOL areas have broken this recently. Inflation as in nominal of 0-1? I took a look at the Shiller index and housing has outpaced inflation - which I would be more than okay with. http://ww...
by kosomoto
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasonable appreciation assumptions?
Replies: 4
Views: 321

Reasonable appreciation assumptions?

Hi all, Thinking of buying a property in a decent area in California. Would it be reasonable to assume the property value will likely increase with inflation over the long run? I am not expecting anything more than 2-3% annually. Does historical housing data back up this assumption? From what I have...
by kosomoto
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Scalabale is the 3/4 Fund portfolio?
Replies: 38
Views: 3209

Re: How Scalabale is the 3/4 Fund portfolio?

You could invest in private equity or alternatives too but I don’t see why it wouldn’t work. As long as the economy doesn’t collapse you should have a positive return over time.
by kosomoto
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Federal Reserve hikes interest rate]
Replies: 34
Views: 4350

Re: Fed raises the fed rate, markets do not look efficient

There are people on this board who maintain the position that you can’t predict interest rates even though the Fed has explicitly stated it will be raising rates.

I don’t hold that position. Maybe the market does though?
by kosomoto
Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle Commuting in LA - Thoughts?
Replies: 100
Views: 5670

Re: Bicycle Commuting in LA - Thoughts?

I occasionally commute to work via skateboard when the traffic starts to bother me. I am also in California in a busy city. It’s a five mile commute each way so it takes about 30-40 minutes. The best part is that I can use the sidewalks rather than streets which means very little risk of being hit b...
by kosomoto
Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What return assumptions to use?
Replies: 26
Views: 2270

Re: What return assumptions to use?

I use 3% real for equities and 1% real for fixed income. Based upon current inflation of around 2%, that would be 5% and 3% nominal respectively. I try to be conservative, but not overly so, in my planning. Yup, I use 3-4% real for equities. Anything lower than that pretty much collapses our financ...
by kosomoto
Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower fees than VXUS?
Replies: 7
Views: 976

Re: Lower fees than VXUS?

It is not true, VWO has different exposure to China than the emerging markets component of VXUS. How is that, VWO I see 32.7% and VXUS 6.3% (so about 1/5th what is about right if Emergings is ~20%) It looks VXUS have fewer assets and I guess this is why the higher fees. I'm surprised it's so recomm...
by kosomoto
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people small value-tilt international?
Replies: 13
Views: 1817

Re: How many people small value-tilt international?

VSS has no value tilt I’m aware of.

DLS has a higher expense ratio but by all metrics has more value and smallness if those are the factors you want.
by kosomoto
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 23078

Re: Why International again?

I appreciate your honesty and have no doubt your opinion is shared by many. This is also Exhibit A as to why its impossible to have a rational discussion on the % in non-US investments on this board. I think impossible is overstating it a bit. I prefer rational discussions and am interested to lear...
by kosomoto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NEWS-BlackRock, Vanguard less likely to vote against CEO compensation
Replies: 7
Views: 1248

Re: NEWS-BlackRock, Vanguard less likely to vote against CEO compensation

selters wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:31 pm
https://www.msci.com/ceo-pay

A recent study concludes that the companies with the lowest ceo pay have provided investors with the highest returns.
Could this not be explained simply by the fact that smaller companies pay their CEOs less and small caps have had higher returns?
by kosomoto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 23078

Re: Why International again?

If you are going to look at past results, note that Australian and South African stocks have both dramatically outperformed US stocks from 1900 to present -- a much longer period than the short time you are looking at. With this long history of superior performance, why not keep all of your investm...
by kosomoto
Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it Safe to Get Your DNA Tested?
Replies: 86
Views: 11653

Re: Is it Safe to Get Your DNA Tested?

Yikes, I can't believe you people are so paranoid about privacy. Get over it. Many people using DNA testing, I will bet, are of Medicare age, so pre-existing conditions are moot. The only "danger" I see is a surprise re ancestry. I knew by paternal family was from England since the Pilgrims and tha...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I week in California, Road Trip Planning
Replies: 64
Views: 3968

Re: I week in California, Road Trip Planning

Irvine is the safest large city in the country (ranked that way multiple years, sometimes it drops into the top 5). Great place to raise a family or just a great place if you enjoy going out at night and being able to go into any dark alley and not worry. Median income is nearly 100k so homes are ex...
by kosomoto
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

Admittedly, I don't have any data to support my claim, but I believe the U.S. being the top country in terms of dollar returns is a fallacy. I don't think the U.S. generated greater dollar returns than any country over each and every period. It's so far fetched that the onus of proof should really ...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

What do you mean by “CAPE worked?” US returns since 99 and 2000 have still been higher than international last I checked. So therefore CAPE didn’t work? Not to mention nobody invests in lump sums at the top of the market. Using portfolio visualizor you can see that a more realistic addition of fund...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I would say the U.S. has outperformed the basket of international stocks the last 30 years, not say it the other way around. It's important to think of it that way, because you could dive into that basket of international stocks and find a few other countries that have matched or beaten the US. I d...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I would say the U.S. has outperformed the basket of international stocks the last 30 years, not say it the other way around. It's important to think of it that way, because you could dive into that basket of international stocks and find a few other countries that have matched or beaten the US. I d...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

They are ALWAYS cheap on a PE basis. They were cheap 30 years ago and still returns were bad. With 30 years of poor returns, the PE ratio should be under 5 if earnings grew as fast as US companies and the dividend yield should be double digits. Sure it’s possible foreign stocks will suddenly outper...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

One does not need to "make a case" for a 50% international allocation. You can't get more passive than just taking the entire world of investable equities at market cap weight. Those who choose to make an active bet and significantly overweight the US in their portfolio are the ones who need to mak...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

One does not need to "make a case" for a 50% international allocation. You can't get more passive than just taking the entire world of investable equities at market cap weight. Those who choose to make an active bet and significantly overweight the US in their portfolio are the ones who need to mak...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

They are ALWAYS cheap on a PE basis. They were cheap 30 years ago and still returns were bad. With 30 years of poor returns, the PE ratio should be under 5 if earnings grew as fast as US companies and the dividend yield should be double digits. Sure it’s possible foreign stocks will suddenly outper...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

One does not need to "make a case" for a 50% international allocation. You can't get more passive than just taking the entire world of investable equities at market cap weight. Those who choose to make an active bet and significantly overweight the US in their portfolio are the ones who need to mak...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8588

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

There are actually some logical reasons for having a home country tilt, not the least of which is the fact that your home country's inflation, which impacts your spending power, also has a much greater impact on domestic stock market returns than international returns. Tyler at Portfolio Charts had...
by kosomoto
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Banks Worthless [to invest equity in]?
Replies: 32
Views: 3113

Re: Are Banks Worthless [to invest equity in]?

14 year return on the vanguard financial fund is under 5%.
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5738

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

Inflation, although with the recent change it's chained CPI-U, is used to adjust the tax brackets. That helps, but for many people it has little effect on capital gains. With no inflation, and 20% tax on long-term capital gains, a 1% real return is reduced to 0.8%. With 4% inflation, a 1% real gain...
by kosomoto
Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5738

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

Nobody is going to mention taxes?

The government doesn’t care if your nominal returns are caused by inflation. If inflation increases the value of your stocks your purchasing power decreases because you’ll owe taxes on that capital gain even if there is no real gain.