Search found 5178 matches

by bobcat2
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

bottlecap wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:09 pm
Yup. I was talking about his conclusion in the original link.

JT
The conclusion in the two articles is the same. The metaphors employed are the differences in the two articles.

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

Paul Romer blog post on economic growth. People are reasonably good at estimating how things add up, but for compounding, which involved repeated multiplication, we fail to appreciate how quickly things grow. As a result, we often lose sight of how important even small changes in the average rate o...
by bobcat2
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Re: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

Paul Romer blog post on economic growth. People are reasonably good at estimating how things add up, but for compounding, which involved repeated multiplication, we fail to appreciate how quickly things grow. As a result, we often lose sight of how important even small changes in the average rate of...
by bobcat2
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Paul Romer & William Nordhaus share Nobel Prize in Economics

This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics is shared by Paul Romer (no relation to the prominent economic team of David & Christine Romer) and William Nordhaus. While Nordhaus’ award is well deserved, I personally believe that Paul Romer has been the most influential economist in the world over the last q...
by bobcat2
Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Christopher Robbins writing in Financial Advisor about the proposed new retirement bonds. “Existing products often offered as default options in the retirement context have no ability to secure retirement goals,” says Martellini. “They can’t generate a fixed level of income in retirement. The invest...
by bobcat2
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 118
Views: 17253

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I came across an article in the Fall 2015 Journal of Retirement that is along similar lines: "Use Your Client's Funded Ratio to Simplify and Improve Retirement Planning Decisions" by Sam Pittman. In addition to introducing the concept of funded ratios, annuity factors, and actuarial present values ...
by bobcat2
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2561

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

It's my opinion that most investors, including many [most] Bogleheads, overestimate the power of price risk and underestimate the compounding power of reinvestment risk. This leads to an overemphasis on short-term bonds in cases where they aren't necessarily appropriate. An investor who has just re...
by bobcat2
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

Re: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

Our next meeting will be Sunday, September 16 from 3:00-5:00 , in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. We have the room reserved until 5:30, so we can run over a little if need be. Note the projector in the room is not workin...
by bobcat2
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 146
Views: 42479

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be Sunday, September 16 from 3:00-5:00 , in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. We have the room reserved until 5:30, so we can run over a little if need be. Note the projector in the room is not workin...
by bobcat2
Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

duffer wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pm
I'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

U.S. stocks continue to soar? Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7% . Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator. Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33713

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

U.S. stocks continue to soar? Real total Wilshire 5000 return, dividends reinvested for 7 months from January 26, 2018 peak through end of August 2018 is 1.7% . Source of return is Wilshire 5000 Dividend Reinvested Calculator. Link to calculator. - https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/...
by bobcat2
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1661

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. My recommendation in this case is to use the price of a real life annuity to price your retirement income target in the denominator of the funded ratio. You certainly do not have to purchase a real life annuity to...
by bobcat2
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 10126

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

Here's more useful and trenchant advice from an economist.
Financial and economic crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine.
- Rudiger Dornbusch


BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 104
Views: 11551

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

While the steep decline of the Turkish lira and Turkish capital markets is a terrible problem for the Turkish people, the wider concern is the possibility of contagion to other emerging markets as Turkish problems intensify. The Asian financial crisis in the summer of 1997 began with problems with t...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk
Replies: 6
Views: 675

Re: Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk

livesoft wrote:
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:34 pm
You know about that high school, right? ;)
I know beginning last Sunday. :D

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk
Replies: 6
Views: 675

Behavioral Finance paper on assessing risk

Last Sunday after the DC Bogleheads meeting a group of us went out to dinner. Meeting presenter Arun Muralidhar and his 18 year old son, Sid, joined us. Sid is a computer whiz and set up his dad's video display equipment for the presentation. At the dinner I spoke with Sid and his dad. Later last we...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

Re: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

A couple of people at the meeting today asked how they can join the DC Bogleheads. Click on the following link and you will go to the DC group page - titled - DC Area Vanguard Diehards On that page click on the "Join Group" button. Link - https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/DCAreaDiehards/info?gucco...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Research Conference in DC this week (free!)
Replies: 1
Views: 288

Retirement Research Conference in DC this week (free!)

The 2018 Retirement Research Consortium (RRC) Meeting will be held this coming Thursday & Friday August 2-3, 2018, at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The event is free of charge, but registration is required. Free box lunches that are reasonably tasty are provided each day. Registration i...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

Re: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

Some of us will be going out to dinner in the Ballston area after the presentation and Arun emailed that he will be happy to join us. All are welcome. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nailing Down Income Requirement in Retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 3710

Re: Nailing Down Income Requirement in Retirement

I Is it realistic to assume we will keep spending at the same rate as we are now with kids expenses and mortgage and having those replaced with medical and traveling. Is that the experience of folks in retirement? No it is not realistic. The mortgage and the kids are more expensive in most cases. A...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

Re: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

Yesterday on DC Bogleheads a member asked for directions to the library. Here goes - Our next meeting will be this coming Sunday, July 29, 2:30-4:30, in the first floor auditorium of the Arlington Central Library in Ballston, at 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. The library has a free park...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Arun Muralidhar will be making a presentation at DC Bogleheads this coming Sunday July 29 on these BFFS retirement bonds and the MMM flex model of retirement planning. See this link for more information about the meeting. Link - https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=254682 So if you a...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

Re: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

Bobcat, what an incredible meeting you put together :happy Great job, Bob!! We'll be there for sure. Ed I didn't do much. I simply asked Arun and he was more than happy to talk about this project. Perhaps my avatar being a picture of Franco Modigliani swayed him. :) On a more serious note - For a p...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29
Replies: 15
Views: 2344

DC Bogleheads meeting with pension expert Arun Muralidhar - Sunday, July 29

Our next meeting will be this coming Sunday, July 29, from 2:30-4:30 in the first floor auditorium of the Ballston library. Our special guest speaker will be Arun Muralidhar, his presentation will cover his new book, 50 States of Gray . The book and presentation cover the global retirement crisis an...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steve Dubner interviews Richard Thaler
Replies: 3
Views: 716

Steve Dubner interviews Richard Thaler

This interview of Nobel prize winning behavioral economist Richard Thaler, titled, People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard, is both insightful and funny. Enjoy. :D

Link - http://freakonomics.com/podcast/richard-thaler/

BobK :wink:
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implementing Life-Cycle Financial Planning
Replies: 5
Views: 714

Implementing Life-Cycle Financial Planning

Joe Tomlinson interviews financial planner Rick Miller about how he implements life-cycle economics in his financial planning practice. Lots of advice on several topics including risk assessment, projecting investment returns, annual spending adjustments, life insurance, disability insurance, life a...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

It simply shifts the risk profile. If the bear market recovers in 5 years or less you are better off using buckets, but in the really bad case of a bear market lasting 9 years or more, the bucket approach makes a very bad situation worse. If you want less risk, you have to do some form of liability...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Bobcat2.... I have the impression that you are a real skeptic of the bucket approach... Got that right :!: :D Links to articles about the bucket approach. Can Buckets Bail-Out a Poor Sequence of Investment Returns? https://web.archive.org/web/20150320005214/http://www.ifid.ca:80/pdf_newsletters/PFA...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

In 2010 I had $181K in stocks and $119k in bonds left in the scenario. So $300k after ten years. Had increased my withdrawals by 3% every year. So with at least 50 percent in stocks, what would do better than that? In real terms you are left with about $223k, not $300k. In other words in ten years ...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Take an unfortunate soul who retired in 2000 with a $500k portfolio using a 2-bucket strategy ($350k in stocks, $150k bonds). Use the Wilshire 5000 for the stock index return, and since I'm a Fed, I'll use the average of the G Fund (last ten years 4.27%) as my bond fund. Withdrawal of 4% with infla...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Two investors have the same asset allocation. The one who has a bucket strategy is mitigating the risk of a ST bear market by amplifying the risk of a LT bear market relative to the other investor using a standard portfolio strategy.

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

The return of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested for the time period December 1999 through December 2007 was 17.666% then things dropped off the cliff ... . The real return of the Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested from December 1999 to December 2007 was -2.3%, a negative return not a posit...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

The point is that if stocks have a bad period of 10 years or more the buckets approach is a terrible strategy. If stocks have a bad period of 5 years or less, then the bucket approach is better. Between 5-10 years doesn't make much difference. But the worst situation is an equity market decline that...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6961

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

The logic is that 1-2 years of cash from your portfolio allows you to sleep well and hopefully not sell in a panic. Stocks are volatile, but will typically grow if given enough time. Such as 10 years. You are simply trading off one set of risks for another. If stocks don't recover within 10 years y...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great investment books that are less well known?
Replies: 15
Views: 1438

Re: Great investment books that are less well known?

Investors and Markets by William Sharpe This book's intended audience is most likely finance MBA's who want a fairly simple introduction to PhD level finance. The book takes Arrow's more general state-preference approach to investing and treats Markowitz's mean-variance (MPT) approach as a special ...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

I'd wager that had you become disabled some years ago, you would prefer the present system to one of retirement bonds. These retirement bonds are not meant to be in lieu of Social Security, but in addition to Social Security. They would simply be a new type of federal government bond - much like wh...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ratings of free online retirement income calculators
Replies: 8
Views: 1089

Re: Ratings of free online retirement income calculators

Am I missing something, or is there no detail on how the individual scores were derived? E.g., what specifically leads to a score of 1 for accuracy for Vanguard and Fidelity? Here are the reviews in more depth - https://www.thebalance.com/retirement-calculator-reviews-4061796 And here is the report...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ratings of free online retirement income calculators
Replies: 8
Views: 1089

Ratings of free online retirement income calculators

Financial planner Dana Anspach rates nine free retirement income calculators. The two best rated free calculators were ESPlanner Basic and New Retirement. ESPlanner Basic scored a perfect 9 and New Retirement came close with 8 out of 9. The Vanguard calculator scored poorly coming in next to last ah...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3759
Views: 1068180

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I saw 2001: A Space Odyssey last night at the AFI Silver Theater ... Yes, a great and unique movie. There are a couple of scenes that I especially appreciated. These each deserve an award of their own. The whole opening with the apes, topped by the bone-to-spaceship transition . That was cinematic ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3759
Views: 1068180

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I saw 2001: A Space Odyssey last night at the AFI Silver Theater for my 6th time seeing it in a theater. I'm pretty sure it was the 6th time. :confused A woman standing next to my in line asked me how many times I had seen it and after some reflection I came up with the previous 5 times. I've also s...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Arun Muralidhar will be making a presentation at DC Bogleheads on Sunday July 29 on these BFFS retirement bonds and the MMM flex model of retirement planning. See this link for more information about the meeting. Link - https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=139752&p=4004533&hilit=arun...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 146
Views: 42479

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be Sunday July 29 from 2:30-5:00 at the Arlington central library in Ballston. Note that we will meet in the first floor auditorium - not in the 2nd floor meeting room where we usually meet. Our guest speaker will be Arun Muralidhar. Arun’s presentation will cover his new book,...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Robert Merton writing about SeLFIES retirement bonds in IPE (Investments & Pensions Europe). These innovations ensure even the most financially illiterate individual can be self-reliant with respect to retirement planning (without requiring a forecast of expected returns, optimisers/retirement calcu...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5290

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

I don't understand why Merton makes so little of a $500,000 nest egg. Put that amount in TIPS at age 60. If you live to be 100, that's at least $12,500/yr in real dollars. Added to Soc Security for someone who worked for 35-40 years, that's a significant retirement income. Hardly posh, but there ar...
by bobcat2
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5290

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

A bit of history. ... Another bit of history. This time Robert Shiller writing in the Washington Post during the height of the Great Recession in late September, 2008. Ideas matter . Maybe next time, we will listen more closely to financial theorists who think in abstract, general terms. Consider t...
by bobcat2
Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5290

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

The part of the interview that stuck out to me was near the end when Chen attempted to summarize Merton's position on prudent retirement planning. Chen then asked Merton if he had it right. Merton responded that the summary was mostly right, but Chen's including Target Date Funds as part of sound re...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

this quote from the article is interesting What's more, TIPS only give you protection against inflation. "It doesn't give you protection against standard of living changes," he said. "And so that's where we were arguing that if people are trying to create a particular cash flow profile, why have th...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Robert Powell writing about retirement bonds for financial security in TheStreet . Arun Muralidhar is on a mission to solve the retirement crisis. In his just-published book, 50 States of Gray , Muralidhar discusses what Nobel prize winner and MIT professor Robert Merton describes as "innovative pro...
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 69
Views: 8711

Re: Retirement bonds

Arun Muralidhar on goals-based investing and the use of financial instruments, such as retirement bonds, that match cash flows. The growing trend of goals-based investing recognizes that investors hold assets to satisfy key goals — planning for retirement (individual or institutional), saving for a ...