Search found 5128 matches

by bobcat2
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

I'd be more enthusiastic if this were a means to replace (or at least supplement) the current 401K/IRA system, which strikes me as too Wall Street-dominated, by a privately managed annuity program, which would, hopefully, be better suited to the needs of future retirees. However, to the extent this...
by bobcat2
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

An interesting article in the Financial Times about "retirement bonds". An odd thing about this article is in discussing the bonds it fails to mention Arun Muralidhar, the person who originated the idea of these bonds and has since been championing the idea along with Merton. From the article - Mr M...
by bobcat2
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 138
Views: 37029

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

As of today we have 300 registered DC Bogleheads :!: :D Our next meeting will be Sunday, July 29, from 2:30-5:00 at the Arlington central library in Ballston. Note that we will meet in the first floor auditorium - not in the 2nd floor meeting room where we usually meet. We will have a special guest ...
by bobcat2
Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer
Replies: 27
Views: 4692

Re: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t save more, but rather working even slightly longer has a very powerful effect on retirement security. Thank you for your helpful post Bobcat :happy Your blue conclusion is very important, but seems to me the "working longer" has to be hopeful thinking not set plannin...
by bobcat2
Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer
Replies: 27
Views: 4692

Re: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer

Additionally, you have to subtract the $27,000/2 = $13,500 that the earlybirds already collected from the $17,736.87, leaving a PV of NET added SS benefit of only $4,236.87. Any significant gain would have to come, as some posters above alluded to, from the wages during those 6 months making a mate...
by bobcat2
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer
Replies: 27
Views: 4692

Re: NYT Story on Importance of Working Just a Little Longer

Let’s take a couple whose annual income is close to the national median of roughly $60,000. On average they have saved 10% of their income or $6,000/year (in 2018 dollars). They have been saving since their early 20s and have earned an average real return of 4%. At age 65 their portfolio is worth $5...
by bobcat2
Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 138
Views: 37029

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting is tomorrow, June 3, from 2:30-4:30 at the Silver Spring library. If you have topics you would like to discuss, post them here. See preceding post for more info.

BobK
by bobcat2
Thu May 31, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 138
Views: 37029

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting is this coming Sunday, June 3, from 2:30-4:30 at the Silver Spring library. Here are some suggested topics for discussion at the meeting. Can some actively managed stock mutual funds be expected to beat the indexes? If they exist, what are the properties of such funds? What should a...
by bobcat2
Mon May 28, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1644

Re: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio

If any of the panelists use slides in their presentation, a Boglehead should ask if he could email the slides so that the slide deck can be posted at Bogleheads. It's been my experience that presenters are usually more than happy to share their slides. :) BobK We don't post anything in the forum or...
by bobcat2
Mon May 28, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1644

Re: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio

Bodie's presentation tomorrow at this event deals with reducing risk to achieve your financial goals. It will probably be similar in content to an interview he gave with Shaun Wurzbach of S&P Dow Jones earlier this month. Link to interview - https://assettvus.getmediamanager.com/video/5af49fd28a7156...
by bobcat2
Sat May 26, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2736

Re: Three fund portfolio - Which bond fund?

Once an investor is within about 20 years of their targeted retirement year, the three fund portfolio become substantially different. At that point the nominal bond fund in the portfolio following a LDI strategy is replaced with a long-term Treasury Inflation Protected (TIPS) bond fund and a short-...
by bobcat2
Thu May 24, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1644

Re: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio

If any Bogleheads go, perhaps they could post a summary here. In addition, if any of the panelists use slides in their presentation, a Boglehead should ask if he could email the slides so that the slide deck can be posted at Bogleheads. It's been my experience that presenters are usually more than ...
by bobcat2
Wed May 23, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1644

Re: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio

One of the panelists on the program is Aaron Stevens, who is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Finance at Boston University. Aaron is the lead author of the textbook, Life-Cycle Economics and Personal Finance , and has taught a course in personal finance at Boston University for several years. ...
by bobcat2
Tue May 22, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1644

Newton MA library program - Zvi Bodie on Managing Your Portfolio

Something to check out if you are a Boglehead in the Boston area. Free program at Newton MA Free Library on Tuesday May 29 @ 6:30 PM. YOU AND YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE: DIVERSIFICATION AND MANAGING YOUR PORTFOLIO Panelists discuss a variety of money-related topics. In this session: David Griswold , pres...
by bobcat2
Fri May 18, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

With these real bonds people can plan at least a portion of their retirement finances without having to make complicated calculations, such as forecasting portfolio expected returns, or resorting to using a retirement calculator, or hiring a financial advisor. Here's an example. If an investor wants...
by bobcat2
Wed May 16, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Here's Zvi Bodie earlier this month talking about retirement planning. While he doesn't explicitly mention the separation property, it is definitely the framework he is using in planning for retirement. For the surrogate for the risk-free asset he discusses duration matching with ST & LT TIPS funds...
by bobcat2
Wed May 16, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Here's Zvi Bodie earlier this month talking about retirement planning. While he doesn't explicitly mention the separation property, it is definitely the framework he is using in planning for retirement. For the surrogate for the risk-free asset he discusses duration matching with ST & LT TIPS funds....
by bobcat2
Sun May 13, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Hi willthrill81, I'm assuming you are partnered, and probably married, so why aren't you including your partner's SS benefit in your retirement calculations? Kitces calculations are for people retiring presently. In 2045 or 2050 Social Security benefits overall will be higher. For example, the prese...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Being provided by the government, these would be default-free. Annuities are not default-free and we often see fear of insurance company default as a factor for why people are wary of them. Merton & Muralidhar expect these to be liquid, easy traded, and low-cost . All that is different from an annu...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

SS & Medicare benefits are very valuable for retirees. Current combined benefits are about $1 million for many couples. By 2050 the value of of SS & Medicare benefits in 2015 dollars will be about $2 million for many couples. To ignore these benefits or value them at about $400,000 is wildly inaccur...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Hi willthrill81, $1.8 million is what you are short in lifetime benefits at retirement. So if want to know how much you need at retirement - the answer is an additional $1.8 million if you don't count SS & Medicare. These are discounted costs. The actual costs spread over average life expectancies a...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Per my above analysis, ignoring SS adds at most $600k to my needed portfolio at my planned retirement age, probably more like $400k. ... I don't see how you're getting $900k needed to ignore Medicare. Social Security & Medicare Lifetime Benefits & Taxes TABLE 15 Expected Present Value of Lifetime S...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Hi willthrill81, So, just to be clear, you add about $900,000 to what you need for retirement compared to what people retiring within the last 10 years have needed for health care. Have I got that right? And you also add about another $1,000,000 for the absence of Social Security income that people ...
by bobcat2
Sat May 12, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

As you note, we're probably talking about a maximum 'reasonable' range of $1.8M to $2.4M. The $600k is a chunk of money, but historically that's an average of only a few years of additional growth. Considering the uncertainty surrounding SS benefits according to the SS Administration (they say that...
by bobcat2
Wed May 09, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

One of the very nice aspects of these bonds is that because of their low price, median income households and households of the working near poor can purchase them at regular two week intervals in their DC retirement savings plans. These same households could not possibly purchase zero coupon TIPS on...
by bobcat2
Wed May 09, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Bob, I think this is what you are saying. 1) Real-world retirement planning should not be done on the basis of systematic purchases-then-withdrawals, from a portfolio of traditional mutual funds based on securities (stocks, bonds, near-cash) 2) The asset combination should be divided conceptually i...
by bobcat2
Wed May 09, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Bob, for the record-- I doubt that either of us thinks it amounts to anything --since about 2012 the bond component in Vanguard's target date funds has included a glide toward shorter duration at the same time as it replaces some nominal with inflation-protected bonds. I couldn't disagree more stro...
by bobcat2
Tue May 08, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

But I don't think the converse applies. A TIPS ladder is risk-free and has decreasing duration. A long and short-term TIPS fund, with the allocation systematically shifting away from the longer-term TIPS fund and toward the short-term fund also has decreasing duration, but I don't think it's equiva...
by bobcat2
Tue May 08, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Nor do I understand how a time-varying allocation to two different TIPS funds "protects against a loss" which is what you seemed to be saying, at one point, was necessary for you to call something a "hedge." It protects against a loss in a kind of partial or soft way, but so does a single TIPS fund...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Why would two bond funds hedge risk, but one bond fund not hedge risk? If the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund does not hedge the risk of the stock funds, what would be an example of two bond funds that would? With two bond funds you can duration match a liability over time by changing the wei...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Here are links to three sites that discuss the differences among the three ways of transferring financial risk: diversification, hedging, and insuring. Links - Powerpoint presentation that is linked at the top of the Google page. Titled - Hedging versus Insuring against Price Risk https://www.google...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Then bobcat2 said that a risk-free asset is a "hedge," because a hedge is any strategy in which you give up return in order to reduce risk. I didn't say that. I said the hedge protects against a loss (or limits the downside outcome) - not that it reduces risk. There is a big difference between thos...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

You pick the year you want the 20 year payments to begin. Typically you would pick the year you are age 65 for the payments to begin. The deferral of ten years was simply an example. I'm guessing this would be set up so that the beginning year could be at least 40 years from the present. That way pe...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

I never thought of a bond fund as a hedge. I always thought of a hedge as something that was specifically and only meant to limit downside, i.e. s.t. that goes up if the primary investment goes down. E.g. Primary investment is a stock. Your hoped for outcome is to have the primary investment go up....
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Day9 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 3:23 pm
Any man who dies with more than $10,000 to his name has miscalculated. - Errol Flynn
Adjusting for inflation since the year Flynn passed away (1959) amounts to $86,000.
Still not much, once you include the house. :wink:

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Using bonds for safe income beyond age 85 is a very expensive proposition. You know your chances of living to age 100 or more is very low. But you don't know if you will live three years or less, or ten years or more. If you plan for too few years you will face an income shortfall. If you plan for t...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

I find these bonds to be a very interesting assets for retirement. They are basically zero principal 20 year bonds . Another way to think of them is mini 20 year fixed term income annuities. Use this for income up to life expectancy. Purchase longevity annuities over time as you age to replace the b...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

How does SS fit into the overall scheme? It's in addition to the safe income from the TDF. The Efficient Frontier and the separation property only deal with your portfolio. It's in this sense that later work, including in particular Merton's contributions, provide a richer framework of dealing with...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

So that pretty much says the target date funds I am aware of are doing it all wrong. DFA in their target date funds (TDFs) are basically following the separation property. Once the investor is about age 50 the TDF funds ditch nominal bond funds and replace them with ST & LT TIPS funds that roughly ...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

The curve I always see is between two end points representing, I thought, two risky assets. How would the curve be drawn if there were, for example, three risky assets? Can't have a line with three end points, right? The curve is drawn the same way whether there are two risky assets or five risky a...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

I intentionally left out discussion of more than two risky assets to focus on the main idea. I believe (if) it all applies to "n" risky assets, the diagram would then be n-dimensional , but the math to establish the shape and tangent point could be extended even if that was beyond my math skills! Y...
by bobcat2
Mon May 07, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Please indulge a question or two to help me understand. Is the PURPOSE of that as-yet-unnamed diagram to establish the "best" ratio (AA) between two assets in a risky portfolio? Once we have established that AA, do we use it to construct our risky portfolio and then use other criteria to decide how...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

A risk-free (riskless) asset is a security that offers a perfectly predictable rate of return over the investment horizon. If the investment horizon is 6 months, a 6 month T-bill does that. If the investment horizon is twenty years, a zero coupon 20 year Treasury does that. There is no investing hor...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Hedge - One hedges a risk when the action taken to reduce one's exposure to a loss causes one to give up the possibility of a gain. ... When you hedge, you eliminate the risk of loss by giving up the potential for gain. When you insure, you pay a premium to eliminate the risk of loss and retain the...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

Clarification question. The bond fund of 3-fund portfolio fame, is added not as diversification-to, but as a hedge-against the (more) risky assets? No, it does not. You could use 2 bond funds to hedge risk, but the bond fund in the 3-fund portfolio you are referring to does not do that. Here is a l...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

When you add a surrogate asset for the risk-free asset to your portfolio of otherwise risky assets you are not further reducing risk by diversification. Instead the safe asset is further reducing risk by hedging. Agreed. Except I wouldn't even call it "hedging." The whole point about the risk-free ...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Retirement bonds

The French government will soon be presenting possible reforms to the French retirement system. Three financial economists, Americans Robert Merton and Arun Muralidhar and French financial economist Lionel Martellini have proposed the creation of government retirement bonds as part of the solution. ...
by bobcat2
Sun May 06, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

When you add a surrogate asset for the risk-free asset to your portfolio of otherwise risky assets you are not further reducing risk by diversification. Instead the safe asset is further reducing risk by hedging. A classic example of a surrogate safe asset would be the retiree with a TIPS bond ladde...
by bobcat2
Fri May 04, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

I'm trying to understand relationships between variables, and I'm using figurative language. I am saying "if you imagine a set of different assets that are relatively less and less risky... Stocks-plus-Total Bond to Stocks-plus-Short-Term Bond Index to Stocks-plus three-month Treasury bills to stoc...
by bobcat2
Fri May 04, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6671

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

From the book Capital Idea s by Peter Bernstein . Tobin detected a weakness in Markowitz’s model. Markowitz assumed that investors select securities for their portfolios from a universe consisting totally of risky assets. He pays no attention to investors who might control risk by expanding the uni...