Search found 4909 matches

by bobcat2
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should I look at SS and pensions when developing my post-FRA AA?
Replies: 30
Views: 835

Re: How should I look at SS and pensions when developing my post-FRA AA?

I’m assuming you are (t) years from retirement and not already retired. You could do what others have suggested and simply look at the expected income streams in retirement from Social Security (SS) and your pension. But, if you want to be more precise about this, I suggest doing the following. Put ...
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?
Replies: 15
Views: 1177

Re: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:41 am
In your situation, though, it honestly won’t make a huge difference when she collects, since in the long run, you will both be collecting based on your earnings, not hers.
If you wait until 70, for most of your wife's long run the two of you will be collecting only her benefit. :(

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1920

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

How does this change post retirement when the primary income streams have dried up? Does the funded ratio now "devolve"? j :D The funded ratio is relevant until death. Decisions about how much equity to hold in retirement, when to claim SS and pension benefits, when or if to annuitize, when or if t...
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1920

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

IMO the important take away from the article is that to optimize the retirement financial plan you need to use the funded ratio. In that case neither a fixed AA such as 60/40 or a pre-planned glide path of a TDF is anywhere near optimal. Instead the AA should be dynamically adjusted through time as ...
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?
Replies: 15
Views: 1177

Re: Does it always make sense to delay SSA?

The difficult decision when the much younger spouse has the bigger SS benefit, isn't when the older spouse should claim, 70 is probably right, but when should the higher earning younger spouse claim. This depends on how much younger the bigger SS recipient is in relation to the partner. It makes lit...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1920

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

Can you (or someone) explain the funded ratio in layman's terms? :o The funded ratio (FR) is a metric that can be used to monitor your retirement investment plan. The FR tells you how much of your retirement income goal you can purchase today. It is simply the ratio of your assets to your liabiliti...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing
Replies: 23
Views: 1920

Re: The Pros and Cons of Target-Date Funds vs 3 Fund: LifeCycle Investing

A key portion of the article deals with the importance of the funded ratio when investing for retirement. From the article - The next challenge for TDFs is whether greater active participation by the client, based on his or her “funded ratio,” can improve investment outcomes. The funded ratio measur...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?
Replies: 39
Views: 4540

Re: How your FA, insurance agent, your community reacts when you show your financial knowledge?

I don't know what a "funded ratio" is. I'm feeling left out.... :( The funded ratio (FR) is a metric that can be used to monitor your retirement investment plan. The FR tells you how much of your retirement income goal you can purchase today. It is simply the ratio of your assets to your liabilitie...
by bobcat2
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15959

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I am getting tired of sitting around like the equivalent of old King Midas counting his growing gold pile. The numbers don't have that much meaning. You can't touch the numbers. Maybe it is time to buy a little pied-a-terre in the city. If I get a reverse mortgage on the pied-a-terre I have been to...
by bobcat2
Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement: how to forecast where you’re at?
Replies: 35
Views: 3215

Re: Retirement: how to forecast where you’re at?

pepperz....I highly recommend that you find the thread from Bobcat on 'Funding ratio' . It makes a lot of sense. I use that to figure out where I stand, so to speak. Fair warning: It can be hugely depressing when you first calculate your funded ratio! :shock: As for tools, Firecalc is great. Flexib...
by bobcat2
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 117
Views: 29859

Re: [Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads]

mmw6 wrote:
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:01 pm
I would like to join he DC Bogleheads group. How do I do that? Thank you for your help.
Go to the following linked page and click on "Join Group".

Link - https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/DCAreaDiehards/info

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 806

Re: TIPs and a Three Fund Portfolio

You probably have Taylor Larimore 's three-fund portfolio in mind when you note the absence of TIPS. While it is frequently referred to as the three-fund portfolio, there actually are a variety of three-fund portfolios out there. Some of them include TIPS. User bobcat2 has discussed a portfolio of ...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Why the expected return on the portfolio should not be used as the discount rate for the liabilities in the denominator of the funded ratio. cont. Robert Novy-Marx is one of the better known financial economists on this board principally because he is one of Larry Swedroe's favorite economists and ...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Why the expected return on the portfolio should not be used as the discount rate for the liabilities in the denominator of the funded ratio. cont. From an article by financial planner Paula Hogan. What is the relevance of these ideas for your own personal financial planning? Or more to the point, w...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Why the expected return on the portfolio should not be used as the discount rate for the liabilities in the denominator of the funded ratio. From a paper by Biggs & Smetters on why S&L pensions should not do this. In fact, most economists believe that pension liabilities should be valued using low ...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

The funded ratio tells you what percentage of your retirement income goal you can purchase today. If you are at or near 100% your retirement income goal,why would you want to be heavily invested in stocks? The funded ratio is telling you to lighten up when you are close to your income goal, particul...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using the Funded Ratio to drive your retirement investment plan

Now it struck me that maybe we should step back and focus on this core definition of the funded ratio, in the context of nisiprius' interesting comment (for which I didn't see a satisfying answer while parsing this thread). Nisiprius' comment. On the other hand, just to point out the obvious: how d...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Calculating Retirement Income: Beware "Ballpark" Calculations "Best-guess" financial planning using rule-of-thumb guidelines can miss retirement targets by a mile. [/size] For years, advisors have relied on the "4% rule," the rule of thumb that dictates a 4% annual retirement income drawn from inve...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 117
Views: 29859

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

David et al.,

Looks like we eat after the meeting. :)

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I'm 50 years old and hope I'm roughly 12 years from retirement. I calculated the percentage of current savings vs the cost of a deferred life annuity with 3% cola, joint with DW , to start in 12 years. That yields 32%. Does that seem a reasonable FR result when we have about 1/3 of our target savin...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 117
Views: 29859

Next meeting Sunday, November 19, from 5-7

Our next meeting will be this coming Sunday, November 19, from 5:00-7:00 , in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. Note the time change to 5-7 instead of the usual 3-5. Also, if some of us want to go to dinner as a group, we ...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

How do you work with funded ratio when you have income streams coming on at different times? My current plan is to delay SS until age 70 which will be over 10 years after I plan to retire. Should I figure out a dollar amount to bridge the gap... Here's what I suggest doing for those delaying SS dur...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1316

Robert Merton: Liability Driven Investing Correctly Applied

Robert Merton: Liability Driven Investing Correctly Applied Link to article, Applying life-cycle economics - http://www.nestpensions.org.uk/schemeweb/NestWeb/includes/public/docs/Merton-Applying-life-cycle-economics,PDF.pdf Summary The discussion above presents an income target oriented (LDI) appro...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

What I don't have a clear sense of is: how does my current contribution rate impact funded ratio under various market circumstances? In other words, I don't really care what my absolute funding ratio is, I care how far off that number is from what it should be for someone with my horizon and curren...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 2059

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

There is a consensus on the meaning of risk. Here is that consensus. You can disagree with the consensus meaning of risk, but that doesn't mean there isn't a consensus. Here is the meaning of the word risk from several dictionaries and an encyclopedia. - Pure Risk The possibility of loss or injury -...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 2059

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

Risk in finance simply means that the outcome is not certain. The more uncertainty there is in an outcome, then the greater the financial risk. Volatility is one way to measure financial risk. I think much of this depends on how you define risk. I define it this way: Not having the money for somethi...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 06, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

How do you work with funded ratio when you have income streams coming on at different times? I will have a DB pension (no COLA) from a former employer that will cover about 1/3 of my basic first year retirement expenses after I account for the state and federal taxes on the pension. I do not have a...
by bobcat2
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using the Funded Ratio to drive your retirement investment plan

Bobcat mentioned a LT Tips fund in retirement. The VG Tips fund has a duration of 8 years and shows up as "intermediate" in the 3x3 bond style box. (The short-term Tips fund has a duration of 2.7 years and is "short' in the style box). I am unaware of an actual Tips fund labeled 'long-term" so I as...
by bobcat2
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

If one is near to starting retirement, and a SPIA with COLA price is not to be used for the funding ratio denominator , then TIPS' yields is suitable. But you wouldn't fund a 30 year retirement income with a pile of 30 year tips, but rather a non-rolling TIPS ladder of varying duration TIPS. As mos...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I assume "Funded Ratio" refers to working back mathematically to determine the amount of resources that are needed to have been accumulated to produce/support a desired amount of income reliably? The funded ratio is a metric that can be used to monitor your retirement investment plan. It is simply ...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I assume "Funded Ratio" refers to working back mathematically to determine the amount of resources that are needed to have been accumulated to produce/support a desired amount of income reliably? The funded ratio is a metric that can be used to monitor your retirement investment plan. It is simply ...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

There are many other views out there as well, just food for thought.... https://www.kitces.com/blog/funded-ratio-for-individual-retirement-savings-goals/ Here is what I wrote earlier in a thread about Kitces and the funded ratio. The funded ratio is not the present value of a wealth target at retir...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

People need to be aware that the default funded ratio concept assumes that lifetime annuities will be used to generate retirement income. Not everyone is a big fan of annuities. If you plan to generate income using portfolio withdrawals of 3.5% to 4%, then you'll need to adjust the FR computation. ...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I would think that setting up a spreadsheet and then adding the current 'variable' of the priced real life annuity to be fairly straight forward for someone who would want to do this repeatedly. Could you not also complete similar task by utilizing the IORP and RPM calculators each of which can acc...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

Hello Bob, "While people can calculate the funded ratio on their own, it requires some knowledge of finance and economics and becomes somewhat complicated when we are dealing with couples. In short, at least 90% of the public can't do this, but there is no good reason the plans can't provide this i...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 116
Views: 12994

Re: Using Funded Ratio to drive retirement investment plan - Part 1 of Funded Ratio series

I am wondering about the validity of an alternate approach. As part of my retirement planning, I have built a mega-spreadsheet which lays out an income stream that varies across my expected planning horizon. The stream is inflation adjusted and is about as accurate as any 30 year deterministic mode...
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s a safe formula for assets needed to retire?
Replies: 58
Views: 4264

Re: What’s a safe formula for assets needed to retire?

That TIAA-CREF example reinforces the need for goal- or liability-driven investing . …Regarding the example, it is important to decide whether the pot is a savings account or a retirement account. It is hard to have two different goals because they conflict. One calls for having principal stability...
by bobcat2
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emotional impact of spending down assets?
Replies: 100
Views: 10131

Re: Emotional impact of spending down assets?

^ See Bobcat2's "Funding Ratio" on this forum's Google search Pretty simple. Essentially a "cap rate" I designed income streams. see descriptions in signature line below. YMMV. I took your search advice, the formula is a little complex and I will be studying it more and calculating out my own posit...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you include the capitalized value of Social Security in your asset allocation?
Replies: 32
Views: 2029

Re: Do you include the capitalized value of Social Security in your asset allocation?

The amount of income I would get from Social Security (SS) in retirement if I never worked another day, I count as retirement income. The present value of estimated future contributions to SS by me and my employer I count as safe bonds in my AA. Notice this declines a lot as I approach retirement. O...
by bobcat2
Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should you rebalance when you’re in your seventies?
Replies: 25
Views: 2548

Re: Should you rebalance when you’re in your seventies?

I would advise asymmetric rebalancing of the equity portion of the portfolio. I would rebalance aggressively the equity portion of the portfolio when the equity is above the target percentage. For example, if the equity portion is 2% above the target, then I would rebalance back to the target percen...
by bobcat2
Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

Hi Victoria,

I just ran across this list of essential papers in behavioral finance by Noah Smith.
Here's a link to the list. - https://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/201 ... ioral.html

I'd stay away from the Weitzman paper. :wink:

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

One of the earliest papers in behavioral economics was the 1961 paper, Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms by Daniel Ellsberg. Yes, that Daniel Ellsberg - the one made famous by the Pentagon Papers release. In the paper he discussed what has become known as the “Ellsberg Paradox”. Link to paper - ...
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

There were economists working in behavioral economics at roughly the same time as Kahneman and Tversky. That includes one of the founders of behavioral economics, George Lowenstein. In his book Misbehaving , Thaler dedicates the book to several others, including Lowenstein, whose work he credits wit...
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing: capitalism at its finest
Replies: 4
Views: 596

Re: Indexing: capitalism at its finest

Smetters article is also an indication of financial economics at its finest, and how behavioral finance operates not in the main, but only at the margins of finance. If it were otherwise, the active managers would be winning far more often as they would be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities...
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

Two interesting articles on Richard Thaler receiving the Nobel Prize in Economics. The first is from fellow laureate Robert Shiller. I find it wonderful that the Nobel Foundation chose Thaler. The economics Nobel has already been awarded to a number of people who can be classified as behavioral econ...
by bobcat2
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

So in summary and conclusion: - economists assume on average individuals are unbiased estimators - i.e. that they, on average, lead markets to behave as rational (otherwise arbitrage opportunities would emerge) - in financial markets the lack of investing strategies and individuals who sustainably ...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

And Taleb does so with rich imagery and out-of-the-ordinary syntax. His use of language nudges the reader to slow down and read carefully. Yes, you have to read Taleb slowly and carefully. I have to reread. :) Richard Thaler fell into the trap of not reading carefully when he responded on Twitter t...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Taleb - Why" Nudge" and much of Behavioral Econ is bullsh*t science

Why" Nudge" and much of Behavioral Econ is bullsh*t science - Nassim Taleb Behavioral economists tend to produces biases that are not biases; these are almost always stemming from the lack of knowledge of risk and probability by the "scientists". They lead to "nudges" and recommended actions that ar...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

His [Taleb's] use of language nudges the reader to slow down and read carefully. It was once said that the role of the prophet was to “comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable.” Taleb dead lifts with the hoi polloi and seeks to draw blood in his disagreements with elitists. Say what you wi...
by bobcat2
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8880

Re: Taleb believes Thaler is an Intelectual Yet Idiot

I am guessing that Taleb has not read Nudge and Misbehaving and possibly misunderstands Thaler. Hi Victoria, I am not buying that Taleb has not read Nudge or misunderstands it. Taleb is talking about people that are what he calls IYIs - Intellectual Yet Idiots. And of all the people in the world he...