Search found 5313 matches

by bobcat2
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess [Yahoo Groups degradation]
Replies: 8
Views: 855

Re: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess

Verizon is essentially pulling the plug on Yahoo Groups. I suggest migrating your local BH group over to either Google Groups, or better yet (IMHO) https://groups.io/ . The latter offers a FREE version, which is more than adequate for a BH chapter (unless you need more than 1 GB of file storage). H...
by bobcat2
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess [Yahoo Groups degradation]
Replies: 8
Views: 855

Re: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess

I would suggest migrating to groups.io. Note that Yahoo Groups is not going away entirely - although they are crippling the functionality for many users. The main changes are that all groups will now require moderator approval to add new members, and they will no longer allow uploading data to the ...
by bobcat2
Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess [Yahoo Groups degradation]
Replies: 8
Views: 855

Re: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess

Yahoo Groups is an integral part of many Bogleheads local chapters. Given that, this has created a mess for many local chapters of Bogleheads.

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess [Yahoo Groups degradation]
Replies: 8
Views: 855

Bogleheads local chapters steaming hot mess [Yahoo Groups degradation]

From the Bogleheads Wiki - …local Diehards or Bogleheads chapters have existed since January 2005. In addition to the Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community sub-forum, Yahoo Groups serves as a venue for meeting plans, recaps, and a way to stay in touch between meetings. Now from Yahoo we get the fo...
by bobcat2
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Just a reminder that today's DC Bogleheads meeting is in the auditorium of the Ballston library from 4:00 - 6:00.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be this coming Sunday, November 17, from 4:00-6:00 , in the auditorium of the Arlington Central Library in Ballston at 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. We have the room reserved until 6:30, so we can run over a little if need be. The auditorium is located at the nort...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's active bond ratings article
Replies: 18
Views: 1490

Academics accuse Morningstar of misclassifying bond funds

[Merged into the earlier discussion -- mod oldcomputerguy] From the Financial Times . Trio alleges that M* reports some bond funds holding significantly safer portfolios than the bond portfolios the funds actually hold. ...the researchers found that many funds told Morningstar they held more triple...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1963

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

A key quote from the interview. In terms of gender or marital status, we find that actually married couples (where both are working) and who tend to be richer overall than single people, actually are the least well prepared. And that's really for a couple of reasons (including) they no longer get t...
by bobcat2
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1963

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

A key quote from the interview. In terms of gender or marital status, we find that actually married couples (where both are working) and who tend to be richer overall than single people, actually are the least well prepared. And that's really for a couple of reasons (including) they no longer get th...
by bobcat2
Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views
Replies: 126
Views: 9217

Re: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views

There is no such strategy involved in a three-fund portfolio, except perhaps though blind luck. It can be done with a three-fund, you just have to use a better stack: VT / VTIP / VGLT :P :sharebeer See the following blog post which begins - There is a long running thread about the three fund portfo...
by bobcat2
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be this coming Sunday, September 15, from 3-5 in the auditorium of the main Arlington County library in Ballston. David Grabiner will be making a presentation on how to think about the bond portion of your portfolio. I will be giving a short review on a new book that is a gentl...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine
Replies: 170
Views: 12071

Re: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine

[/quote] Well I would certainly agree that a customized approach could well be better. I'm always looking for good enough because I am lazy. :D The DFA offering has been discussed in the past a few times but never really seems to catch on in this forum for whatever reason. I think this thread has so...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POST YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE EXPERTS PANEL Q&A HERE
Replies: 84
Views: 14681

Re: POST YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE EXPERTS PANEL Q&A HERE

It appears to me that the most popular threads at Bogleheads this year have been about leveraging your portfolio 140% or more equities by using options, margin, S&P 500 mini futures, and leveraged ETFs. Would each of the panelists comment on when such leverage is justified, as well as when it is not...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?
Replies: 16
Views: 807

Re: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?

For those perplexed with what the heck are L1 and L2 norm of errors see the following.
http://www.chioka.in/differences-betwee ... arization/

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?
Replies: 16
Views: 807

Re: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?

In a symmetrical distribution (e.g., normal) positive deviations will cancel negative deviations when averaged. Squaring prevents this. The original scale is restored by taking the square root. If this was a homework question, you must give me credit. :happy No we don't, because you answered the wr...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?
Replies: 16
Views: 807

Re: Variance calculation - why are the deviations squared?

At StackExchange there is a lengthy discussion of this topic as well as links to closely related topics.
Link - https://stats.stackexchange.com/questio ... dard-devia
For sure these discussions are for math and stat geeks.

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 329
Views: 29385

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

I know, I know... I could just spend more from my savings in my 60s. But then what if SS changes even more or they implement mean-testing? It's quite possible that Uncle Sam will square the circle by taxing and otherwise penalizing DC plans and IRAs instead of shrinking SS benefits. In that case yo...
by bobcat2
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 329
Views: 29385

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

Yes, I meant cut TO 75% (79%) If the cut happens when you turn 67 or so, it's better to get the full 100% (of a reduced benefit) from 62-66. That's not true. To make the numbers easy assume benefits are cut by 20% instead of the harder to see 21%. * In that case $20,000 taken at 62 becomes $35,000 ...
by bobcat2
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 329
Views: 29385

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

Steve Vernon has recently written 3 articles at Forbes criticizing the advice of taking Social Security early. There aren’t that many good reasons to start Social Security very early https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevevernon/2019/07/24/there-arent-that-many-good-reasons-to-start-social-security-very-...
by bobcat2
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70
Replies: 329
Views: 29385

Re: Social Security -- Take it at 62, 67 or 70

SHOULD YOU BUY AN ANNUITY FROM SOCIAL SECURITY? - (policy brief from Center for Retirement Research at Boston College) The brief’s key findings are: Households now retiring need to transform their 401(k) and IRA savings into retirement income. One way is to delay claiming Social Security to increas...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 14
Views: 3012

Re: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series

One website mentioned previously on bogleheads is https://www.immediateannuities.com/ . I haven't used the site myself. Might be worth searching old threads for more info. I don't believe https://www.immediateannuities.com/ provides quotes for real immediate annuities. Your belief is misplaced. But...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series
Replies: 14
Views: 3012

Re: Determining your asset allocation using Funded Ratio - Part 2 of Funded Ratio series

Outstanding! Thanks for posting, "BobK". Question: suppose the portfolio is so substantial that a wide range of allocations fulfill the requirements. IE: From 60/40 to 0/100?? j :D One AA should still have the highest probability of hitting FR=1.00 - A too high stock allocation would likely give yo...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

At last Sunday's meeting I went over an article by financial planner Scott Hanson in Kiplinger's magazine about Hanson's recommending that high income individuals take Social Security benefits at age 62 because it is highly likely that benefits for high income individuals will be cut in the near fut...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 74
Views: 6406

Re: The Bucket Approach

T he so called logic of the bucket approach is that 1-2 years of cash from your portfolio allows you to sleep well and hopefully not sell in a panic. Stocks are volatile, but will typically grow if given enough time, such as 10 years. In actuality you are simply trading off one set of risks for anot...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 5322

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

Bob, could you illustrate this with an example? Yes, here are several examples of the DFA life-cycle approach for DC plans. All quite different from the simple equity tilting strategies that DFA financial advisors promote to individual clients. For the most part I believe we are even talking about ...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 5322

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

DFA’s retirement options help them gather assets. These retirement options (such as target date income funds) are not being offered to the advisors who helped them build their business. DFA is promoting a modern life-cycle view to DC plan sponsors and to the advisors who sell to them, but old paradi...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Bogleheads-approved fiduciary financial planner in MA?
Replies: 5
Views: 756

Re: Any Bogleheads-approved fiduciary financial planner in MA?

Rick Miller of Sensible Financial Planning is one of the best financial planners in the country, and Rick is also a nice guy.
https://www.sensiblefinancial.com/people/rick-miller/

BobK
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

So far the items on the discussion list for our meeting this coming Sunday from 3-5 are the following. - Vanguard financial planners are apparently encouraging clients to move from Vanguard mutual funds to equivalent Vanguard etfs. What are the pluses and minuses of etfs vis-a-vis mutual funds and a...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Transitioning to liability driven investment (LDI) approach in early retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 1213

Re: Transitioning to liability driven investment (LDI) approach in early retirement

Using LDI methods to develop a goal based investing strategy is usually based on life-cycle economics of keeping your spending on a fairly smooth path for the rest of your life. The first principle in life-cycle economics is don't retire early - so that goes out the window in your case. :wink: I wou...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

This thread is for folks that like to criticize and discuss investment theory. This thread is not about finance or investment theory; it is about empirical finance. It is not about the theory of equity returns. It's about testing to find the statistical distributions that empirically best describe ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be Sunday, July 21 from 3:00-5:00 , in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. We have the room reserved until 5:30, so we can run over a little if need be. I believe it is still the case that the projector...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I believe that when working with logs we use the return relative which is (1+r) rather than the return r. So if the market return is -20% in a given year the corresponding return relative is 0.80, i.e. (1 - 0.20).

See SBBI chapter 11 for more on this.

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I think it's best to think of annual stock market returns as approximately log-normal. My impression is that they are slightly more fat-tailed than the log-normal. How to handle that I am not sure. One could say this a model and the real world is somewhat riskier than the model implies. Perhaps you ...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

bgf wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:04 pm
the reason i bring this story up is (well, other than being incredibly interesting to me) is that i cannot shake the feeling that one side here is overselling their case...
I too think one side is overselling their case. I just happen to think it's the other side. :wink:

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I still see two issues you have no addressed: 1) Annual returns are not the sum of daily returns. So I don't see the application here yet. 2) I have no reason to believe that daily returns are independent. For issue (1) you could work with the logs of the returns and sum. The daily returns have low...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

3) If financial economists have accurate quantitative models of risk, how do you explain the constant and endless series of bizarre after-the-fact claims that various strategies failed due to "one-in-ten-million-year" or "ten-sigma" (i.e. many trillions of times longer than the lifetime of the univ...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

This boils down to an emperical question, Nisi. If the normal distribution doesn't apply to annual returns because the daily returns have infinite variance, then it follows that when we look at annual returns over many years they won't look like anything approximately normal. Here is a link to a his...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Could you point me to a website that explains the CLT the way you're applying it? I learned it in the past in the context of what I posted previously and I have never seen it applied the way you are here. What you know is a special case of the CLT, but it is a very special case of the CLT. It is th...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

If you sum up the fat tailed daily returns for a year that annual return has an approximately normal distribution. That daily returns are fat tailed has been known for over 50 years. It's not a big so what unless you are investing for much less than a year. So why did you read Mandelbrot and think t...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I think the OP should be quite pleased with the information in this thread. :D He learned that annual equity returns are not wild distributions with infinite variance, but instead thanks to the CLT are approximately normally distributed, and that stock prices at an annual frequency are approximately...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

If you are a day trader, or even better a high frequency trader with access to a super computer, then Mandelbrot is essential. I work in the industry. I think you have it backwards. The more independent instances you have, the more you can approach it with stats. Mandelbrot/Taleb stuff is useless, ...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Anyone one else read these books and perhaps wants to talk about how they have changed their thinking with their finances? What action items could come out if you believe in they're material? Hi pelusa, I've read Mandelbrot's Misbehavior of Markets and Taleb's Fooled by Randomness . I have not read...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 200
Views: 73609

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

The next meeting of DC Bogleheads is scheduled for 3:00pm to 5:00pm Sunday, July 21, 2019 in the second floor meeting room of the Arlington Central Library in Ballston.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Note that this is a distribution of daily returns. With relatively low correlation between daily returns, the returns over longer periods are closer to a normal distribution. This is a general principle in statistics. The Central Limit Theorem says that under certain conditions (independent identic...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

I don't think this is very important, but given others apparently do, I will gingerly weigh in on the discussion of Fama's doctoral advisors. It appears to me that both sides are partially correct. Fama's formal doctoral advisors were Merton Miller and Harry Roberts. But because Fama's doctoral thes...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

Here is a post I made at Bogleheads a few years ago about Mandelbrot, fat tails, and volatility clustering. Mandlebrot was not the first to note that stock returns exhibit fat tails. He is, however, generally credited as being the first to discover that stock returns exhibit volatility clustering. ...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

i also would imagine that mandelbrot had a decent grasp of elementary statistics... what drives me crazy is how dismissive people are of valid criticism. I most certainly did not write that Mandelbrot didn't understand basic statistics. What I did write about was that Mandelbrot and some of his fol...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan
Replies: 87
Views: 9059

Re: Misbehaviour of markets and the Black Swan

[T]his idea that markets not normally distributed is OLD news. Fama in fact wrote about this LONG ago. But that is true for daily or very short returns. Get out to a year and they are reasonably close to being log normally distributed. And no one should be equity investor if horizon is very short l...
by bobcat2
Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Against the Clock - Robert Merton & the Economist's Buttonwood
Replies: 11
Views: 1743

Re: Against the Clock - Robert Merton & the Economist's Buttonwood

Dear Seasonal, If one's human capital is as fragile, risky, and small as you fear, one would never accumulate enough savings that the investments in stocks would amount to more than a hill of beans. So what is your point? Unless you inherit a lot, you can't save a significant amount out of a small a...
by bobcat2
Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Against the Clock - Robert Merton & the Economist's Buttonwood
Replies: 11
Views: 1743

Re: Against the Clock - Robert Merton & the Economist's Buttonwood

...the stock market has always recovered. A year of earnings lost to unemployment is gone forever. A year of lost earnings is less than 2.5% of lifetime earnings for a 42 year working career from ages 23 to 65 - hardly a big deal. OTOH an 80/20 portfolio two years before retirement in a year where ...