Search found 1038 matches

by Quark
Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 750

Re: Forecasting inflation

jebmke wrote:The article is behind the paywall.
[Content behind paywall article removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Quark
Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 750

Forecasting inflation

A WSJ article cites a new paper for the proposition that "Everything the Market Thinks About Inflation Might Be Wrong. How much money a central bank prints may be less important to inflation than commodity prices". The article includes: "the last several years of extraordinary monetary policy have s...
by Quark
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yields, from 1714
Replies: 20
Views: 2871

Bond yields, from 1714

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by Quark
Sun Mar 05, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Find moats by looking at market concentration?
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Find moats by looking at market concentration?

The more I try to understand index investing the more I realize that I do not understand it. Let's say you bought Total Stock Market - given how much winner take all increasingly dominates then are you in effect investing in a moat strategy? How much do those little companies matter? How much does ...
by Quark
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Find moats by looking at market concentration?
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Find moats by looking at market concentration?

While there can be edge cases or various degrees of fuzziness, markets are usually pretty well defined. A lot of companies operate in one or a small number of industries. SEC regulations require companies to list competitors, which can also help. There are likely a lot more clearly defined companies...
by Quark
Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Find moats by looking at market concentration?
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Find moats by looking at market concentration?

Warren Buffett famously suggested buying businesses with strong economic moats, that is, the ability to maintain competitive advantages over their competitors in order to protect their long-term profits and market share from competing firms. An recent article in the WSJ suggests a trend towards comp...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND flat today despite interest rate announcement
Replies: 22
Views: 3839

Re: BND flat today despite interest rate announcement

The market estimate of the chances of a rate hike are barely changed from yesterday. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html I therefore would not expect interest rates to move much. Fed announcement days are typically rather volatile. You can often see markets move as ...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes
Replies: 26
Views: 2058

Re: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes

Who sets exchange rates? Would seem it would be set by the market? Also, are the ATM refunds for chase automatic as statement credit? The market sets exchange rates, but the exchange rate you get from an ATM is set by the bank or the network, so the rate you get may differ from the market rate. It'...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing and Utilizing Dividends during Retirement Years
Replies: 52
Views: 3444

Re: Maximizing and Utilizing Dividends during Retirement Years

Retirees didn't have to sell any equities during the 50% downturn. Indeed, they rebalanced by buying more equities at that time. In addition, consider the difference among (1) spend dividends, (2) reinvest dividends, then sell shares to raise the same amount of money and (3) no dividends paid, but ...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing and Utilizing Dividends during Retirement Years
Replies: 52
Views: 3444

Re: Maximizing and Utilizing Dividends during Retirement Years

Dividends? Who needs them or wants them? I prefer tax-free income instead. If your dividends are qualified are they not "tax free" at the 15% bracket anyhow? That is true, but too much of a good thing bumps one up out of the 15% bracket and takes up space that could be used for Roth conversions. LT...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes
Replies: 26
Views: 2058

Re: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes

Are there any other banks other than scwab that have transaction free atms for international? Citi, Chase, BankDirect. You should look at exchange rates, not just fees. I consistently get a better exchange rate on Citi than Chase. I've never had an ATM in Europe not take my Citi card (or Chase, but...
by Quark
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes
Replies: 26
Views: 2058

Re: Actual physical ATM access internationally, and then changing notes

I was in Rome and Florence a couple of weeks ago and had no problems with ATMs. I never used an ATM inside a bank. The only bills I ever got were 20s and 50s. With careful selection of amounts to withdraw, you could easily avoid 50s if you want (or, at least, I could). Once or twice in Rome an ATM w...
by Quark
Thu Mar 02, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7430

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

...What does this imply? That your risk tolerance, and therefore proper asset allocation, steadily decreases/becomes more conservative as you lose money. Rather than the rigid, mysterious cutoff of "Plan B", which again neither book nor wiki nor quotesheet has instructed us on, this implies that wh...
by Quark
Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7430

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

We all talk about holding on and recovering our losses. And that's usually true. But when you're 85, it's not like you can simply say, "I'm sure there will be a recovery over the next decade and I'll recover eventually." It's common to think that the main risk of equities is psychological and that ...
by Quark
Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7430

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

+1 agreed.. 69 here and don't see re-balancing from bonds to equities as much of an opportunity for a good thing anymore. OTOH, if the drop was 40% than VFINX (aka S&P 500) would be yielding north of 3% for dividends. I suppose the dividend aristocrats would be north of 4%. There might be some oppo...
by Quark
Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 7430

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

It might be instructive to read some of the posts from 2008-9. Even diehard stay-the-course advocates advised: Determine the minimum portfolio "you need going forward." If your portfolio declines to that bare minimum, you should get out of stocks entirely. A retiree who cannot afford to lose, should...
by Quark
Thu Mar 02, 2017 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25953

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

It seems clear that all of the models discussed, including CAPE and history, have severe flaws. However, the question isn't whether they are right or wrong, the question is whether they are useful. You need some way to decide on a savings rate, allocation and withdrawal rate. If you don't go with th...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare
Replies: 37
Views: 2152

Re: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare

Modeling is especially difficult given the political issues surrounding Medicare, and healthcare in general. A note of caution on Medicare Advantage - one main reason it's less expensive is that it's subsidized by the Federal government (14% in 2009). The ACA is reducing these subsidies. http://kff...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare
Replies: 37
Views: 2152

Re: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare

Modeling is especially difficult given the political issues surrounding Medicare, and healthcare in general. A note of caution on Medicare Advantage - one main reason it's less expensive is that it's subsidized by the Federal government (14% in 2009). The ACA is reducing these subsidies. http://kff...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare
Replies: 37
Views: 2152

Re: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare

Modeling is especially difficult given the political issues surrounding Medicare, and healthcare in general. A note of caution on Medicare Advantage - one main reason it's less expensive is that it's subsidized by the Federal government (14% in 2009) . The ACA is reducing these subsidies. http://kf...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Climate and happiness revisited
Replies: 111
Views: 9150

Re: Climate and happiness revisited

I like it when temperatures are in the fifties, provided the wind is low and it's not raining. Great weather for outdoor activities.
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Retired Members--life mistakes
Replies: 64
Views: 10182

Re: Question for Retired Members--life mistakes

I'm retired. We just did the usual stuff that everybody does: When we got married, we used Vanguard MM Prime for our savings along with those 12% CDs in our IRAs. We invested the entire gross salary of the highest paid spouse in Vanguard funds for many years and paid taxes and living expenses from ...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?
Replies: 36
Views: 7828

Re: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?

... if the year-to-date pace is sustained. That's a pretty big if, though. Is there a group of particularly sleepy small investors who will wake up nine months from now, notice that we have a new president, and decide to get into the market? If the seedling to five year pace of tree growth of trees...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 10231

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

Yesterday, the odds of a Fed rate hike were 35%. Today the odds are 71%. What they'll be tomorrow, let alone when the Fed meets in two weeks, are anyone's guess. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Treasury yields are up today, which limits one's ability to profit ...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable
Replies: 153
Views: 19268

Re: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable

It can take a while to accept that you have enough, especially if you feel that you are on the edge of enough or that a market move or spending increase can cause problems (which either means you don't have enough or you worry too much). Do you want to continue working or are you eager to stop as so...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 10231

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

Yesterday, the odds of a Fed rate hike were 35%. Today the odds are 71%. What they'll be tomorrow, let alone when the Fed meets in two weeks, are anyone's guess. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Treasury yields are up today, which limits one's ability to profit f...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare
Replies: 37
Views: 2152

Re: modeling expected healthcare costs with Medicare

Modeling is especially difficult given the political issues surrounding Medicare, and healthcare in general. A note of caution on Medicare Advantage - one main reason it's less expensive is that it's subsidized by the Federal government (14% in 2009). The ACA is reducing these subsidies. http://kff....
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Lousy Customer Service
Replies: 86
Views: 9005

Re: Vanguard: THE WORST BROKERAGE. Stay away

Its unbelievable. It continues to point to inept management in caring about its own clients.The fact that so many threads are showing up with this poor customer service are amazing and sad. But is there a larger problem we are unearthing? One has to wonder if there is some sort of unknown scam, or ...
by Quark
Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Lousy Customer Service
Replies: 86
Views: 9005

Re: Vanguard: THE WORST BROKERAGE. Stay away

Vanguard has over 20 million investors. It got top marks from Consumer Reports. It came in second in JD Power's survey of consumer satisfaction, losing to Schwab but beating Fidelity, TR Price, etc. No business gets every interaction right, especially no business with 20 million customers. While it'...
by Quark
Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 25953

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

A problem is that it would be very helpful to know future returns in order to figure our need to take risk and therefore our asset allocations, but there isn't any method of estimating future returns that is sufficiently reliable. Even the methods that have been the most reliable, such as p/e or CAP...
by Quark
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 20
Views: 2105

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

How would you use forward p/e ratios? What difference would it make to you if they were more or less reliable? You can get a sense of where we are compared to market history. Forward P/E's got to be about 32 just before the 2000-2002 bear market and they are about 19 today. P/E's based on actual ea...
by Quark
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 20
Views: 2105

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

How would you use forward p/e ratios? What difference would it make to you if they were more or less reliable?
by Quark
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 10231

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

I disagree, I don't think traders have priced for 3 interest rate hikes, IMO believe they have priced for one, the other two may or may not happen, repricing will occur when more certainty is common. Based on the futures market the likelihood of a 50-75 bps hike at the March meeting is 73.4% and a ...
by Quark
Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett: Indexing the Best Choice for Investors Large and Small"
Replies: 16
Views: 3100

Re: "Buffett: Indexing the Best Choice for Investors Large and Small"

...Hedge funds are subject to none of these restrictions. I don't actually know what restrictions they are subject to.... The main regulations are anti-fraud (they can't lie or mislead) and restrictions on who can invest (no public offerings and investors must be high net worth, on the theory that ...
by Quark
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming
Replies: 49
Views: 10231

Re: How to Rebalance with Rate Hikes Looming

I was hoping to see some math that would help me decide. At a rough calculation: Multiply the rate increase by the duration. Vanguard's total bond fund has a duration of around 6 years. So a 0.25% increase translates into a 1.5% loss. Then you need to add back in any interest payments you receive (...
by Quark
Sun Feb 26, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: critique Italian itinerary
Replies: 34
Views: 3111

Re: critique Italian itinerary

One option to reduce your travel/hotel burden is to consider basing in Florence and then take day tours to Tuscany, Cinque de Terre, Rome, etc. We had a wonderful few days and there are excellent tour services with modern busses that are based at the main train station. Let someone else do the driv...
by Quark
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should people factor Social Security into their "magic number" with early retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 7368

Re: How should people factor Social Security into their "magic number"

I'd subtract $20,000 (your SS income) from $75,000 (annual spending) to get $55,000, then use your multiple on the result. Multiply $55,000 by 30 for your magic number. This assumes your SS income and annual spending estimates are both real (adjusted for inflation) numbers. Pension streams should be...
by Quark
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 2542

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Questionable quotes from PM D'israeli and dubious assertions by Taleb aside, there are correct assumptions of normal distributions, and incorrect assumptions of normal distributions. That's all there is to see here. PJW I'd add that almost no one has a good intuitive feel for statistics and that th...
by Quark
Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with standard deviation, volatility comparing slice and dice with 3-fund portfolios
Replies: 9
Views: 876

Re: Help with standard deviation, volatility comparing slice and dice with 3-fund portfolios

...From what I've read, the whole point of diversification is to lower volatility (as measured by standard deviation as well as things such as Sharpe and Sortino ratios).... The whole point of diversification is to minimize risk, specifically unsystematic risk. Unsystematic risk is risk that is spe...
by Quark
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The need for bonds if I have a pension?
Replies: 43
Views: 3815

Re: The need for bonds if I have a pension?

Think of a pension as something that reduces your income needs, not as a bond equivalent. Pick an asset allocation appropriate to your remaining income needs and other circumstances.
by Quark
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do you go to restaurants?
Replies: 229
Views: 20737

Re: Why do you go to restaurants?

flyingaway wrote:If you don't mind, can you give me some information about the "insanely expensive" foods (and probably the restaurants)? I thought that lobster and prime steaks are the most expensive items on most restaurants' menus.
White truffles (delicious).
by Quark
Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 14506

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

...Given the choice between the two, I prefer using real data to simulated data. But maybe that's just me.... Real data would be very useful. Unfortunately all we have is historical data and estimates of the future. Which is better? Historical data have not done as well as valuation ratios in predi...
by Quark
Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards vs. Cash
Replies: 123
Views: 9490

Re: Credit cards vs. Cash

Experimental findings that people spend more with plastic (credit and debit) than cash are solid. Bogleheads who claim that their expenses do not depend on the method deceive themselves. It's a common thread among lay people to reject behavioral economics findings as not applicable to them. Experts...
by Quark
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards vs. Cash
Replies: 123
Views: 9490

Re: Credit cards vs. Cash

Experimental findings that people spend more with plastic (credit and debit) than cash are solid. Bogleheads who claim that their expenses do not depend on the method deceive themselves. It's a common thread among lay people to reject behavioral economics findings as not applicable to them. Experts...
by Quark
Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 170
Views: 30717

Re: How can we get this message to Vanguard leadership?

Almost every company I know of has a published process to get issues raised directly with their leadership. Often an 'Office of the CEO' email address for people to use when all else fails. Many even freely share the email address of their CEO and have a team of people reading, prioritizing and for...
by Quark
Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 170
Views: 30717

Re: Vanguard Select???

I think the Flagship Select is a recently created classification, in the past year or so. It's only been a published classification recently. They've had a level above flagship for many years. Qualification moved from $5mm to $10mm and then back to $5mm. The earliest reference I've seen on this boa...
by Quark
Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you account for likely life expectancy in retirement?
Replies: 63
Views: 5945

Re: Do you account for likely life expectancy in retirement?

That is the rub. The age I am assuming is longer than the average life expectancy but it is not something like 99. The spend over 25 years is 17% less than that over 30 years so we aren't talking round error. Which would make you feel worse, being dead when you could have spent more or being rather...
by Quark
Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the Bogle Model Beats the Yale Model
Replies: 28
Views: 4071

Re: How the Bogle Model Beats the Yale Model

I've long wondered why people who realize they can't pick winning investments believe they can pick winning money managers. Because historically Yale has. They were early into alternative assets, and they picked good managers. Duplicating Yale is, conversely, likely extremely difficult to do. Dupli...
by Quark
Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Don't go to the ER shortly before midnight
Replies: 6
Views: 1990

Don't go to the ER shortly before midnight

Here's a story about someone billed for two days' worth of emergency room treatment because the short amount of treatment he received spanned midnight. http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/ ... ll-bandage

I hope this helps someone else avoid a similar situation.