Search found 118 matches

by HomoLudens
Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)
Replies: 48
Views: 8936

Re: Books - Your 3 Best - (Nonfiction, Fiction, Financial/Investing)

[/quote] I saw the Mel Brooks movie. In a theater. Way back then. The only way you could see a movie. I did see it again on DVD, both years later AND years ago! I was somewhat disappointed. It was no Blazing Saddles or Young Frankenstein or High Anxiety. I'm guessing from your appreciation of it, the book was better! EDIT: I see that the Amazon reviews for the movie come out to 4.5 stars so I guess I might have missed something. Perhaps I was in the wrong mood with the DVD as I remember liking it in the theater. That's why I bothered with the DVD. [/quote] The book is great. I strongly recommend the sequel: "The Golden Calf". In fact, Ilf and Petrov also wrote a book about their travels in the United States. It's published under t...
by HomoLudens
Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 14329

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Rick Ferri wrote: Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:12 am I’m looking for the word or phrase that describes how a complex system changes either predictably or unpredictability when a pasive observer becomes an active market participate. Any ideas?
Transmogrification. :happy
by HomoLudens
Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2019?
Replies: 198
Views: 23564

Re: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2018?

Currently: "The 5 Choices, the Path to Extraordinary Productivity." It is dedicated to Stephen Covey, and his work is part of the foundation of the book. I've gotten through a little of it and so far it looks good. I'm slow in putting together my reading list, so I don't know yet what comes after that one. The problem is narrowing down the choices from a lot of things I would like to read if I could. Fareed Zakaria interviewed the authors of these yesterday, and both looked pretty good: "The Romanovs: 1613-1918" by Simon Sebag Montefiore and "Do I Make Myself Clear?: Why Writing Well Matters" by Harold Evans and both look interesting but I don't know if I will get to them. Montefiore is a wonderful writer.I re...
by HomoLudens
Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2019?
Replies: 198
Views: 23564

Re: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2018?

[/quote] Thanks for the links. The nature of tribalism in expert communities is appalling. Many times, "its science" has replaced "its God's word". Taleb does a nice job parsing the expert problem, and the general limits of human knowledge and what to do about it. His new book: https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/042528462X [/quote] You are welcome. I am ambivalent about Taleb. In any case, he is an original thinker. I haven't read his new book, but I assume that it develops one of the main themes in "Antifragile", which is his "foundantional" book. Munger often quotes the mathematician Jacobi and his dictum "Invert, always invert" and Taleb is doing exactly that. Bu...
by HomoLudens
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2019?
Replies: 198
Views: 23564

Re: What non fiction book will you be reading in 2018?

nisiprius wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:20 pm I've started to re-read The Misbehavior of Markets, by Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson. Does it count if I don't wait until 2018? It's sensational. I'd forgotten just how good it is. Every investor should read it, every investor.

I concur. In fact, Taleb has a great review of the book. The story of its reception is rather informative about the nature of tribalism in expert communities: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/mande ... hudson.pdf
On a different note, I use a web page called "Five Books" https://fivebooks.com/. As the name suggests, it contains book recommendations and one can choose books on everything from Abelar to Zeno.
by HomoLudens
Thu May 11, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/IBM
Replies: 73
Views: 9139

Re: Buffett/IBM

Looking at the rest of the page, they mention "Genomics," "Watson's learning Japanese," "Era of cognitive business: from Watson to full-scale solutions," "New ways need new security strategies" (which, clicking the link, seems to be data security, information security, cybersecurity), "Student developers use IBM Bluemix and Minecraft to learn coding and project management," i.e. IT training. Sounds like "business machines" to me. Genomics? How much business do they do in genomics? Is that 1-1/2 businesses, maybe? Mind you, I don't know whether IBM is virtuously sticking to its last or recklessly putting all its eggs in one basket, but I just don't see IBM as being diverse in the w...
by HomoLudens
Thu May 04, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any recommendations for books on Financial Planning?
Replies: 13
Views: 2049

Re: Any recommendations for books on Financial Planning?

Faisal wrote:Been reading the forums and wiki actively. Have money invested. But I would like more information and knowledge for financial planning for my family's future. Early 30s with a 7 month old. We all have health insurance, life insurance, savings and investments. No debts and are now looking to buy a home and a car.

I want to have the necessary skills and knowledge so that we can have a safe and stable future, esp for my wife and son. So any good books or sources of information would be highly appreciated.

Larry Swedroe et al., "The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan: Managing Your Wealth, Risk, and Investments". Nothing fancy, but a solid and user-friendly guide.
by HomoLudens
Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best books [on investing strategy]
Replies: 26
Views: 4270

Re: Best books

I liked Maldebrot's book too. I'm sort of an investment book junkie; I've pretty much read all of the ones discussed on this site. But have to admit, I've picked up Illmanen's book twice and just haven't been able to get myself through it. Dave Actually, I had the same problem with Illmanen until I found the solution. His book defies the conventional linear approach to reading. It simply does. He is a very meticulous Finn who obviously knows his trade and the book is packed with information. I read the book once and I started reading it chapter by chapter in no particular order depending on the market conditions.For example, I read the chapter on liquidity in January and February this year when there was a concern about it. It keeps things...
by HomoLudens
Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best books [on investing strategy]
Replies: 26
Views: 4270

Re: Best books

Njm8845 wrote:What books have had the most influence on your investing strategy? I love reading, but most books on investing tends to be "get rich quick" schemes.

My favorite books are:
- Random Walk Down Wall Street by Malkiel
- The Black Swan by Taleb

There are quite a few. But for the purpose of the present discussion, I think that "Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards" by Antti Illmanen is a really valuable book. I also like Mandelbrot's "The Misbehavior of Markets".
by HomoLudens
Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My take on the passive investing is worse than Marxism
Replies: 25
Views: 6655

Re: My take on the passive investing is worse than Marxism

larryswedroe wrote:http://www.etf.com/sections/index-inves ... eak-market

IMO a new low by desperate industry.
I hope you find it of interest.
Larry

The irony of this report is the title "The Silent Road to Serfdom". It mimics, of course, the title of one of Hayek's book "The Road to Serfdom". I don't know whether Hayek himself opposed index funds, but I doubt it. He wrote a great piece called "The Use of Knowledge in Society", which can be used to make the opposite case. Besides, I haven't seen anyone being dragged to an index fund by a group of Bogle Guards. In Marxist dictatorships, this type of "persuasion" is not uncommon.
by HomoLudens
Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what order should I read these books?
Replies: 42
Views: 11355

Re: In what order should I read these books?

1.The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, by Bogle 2.The Elements of Investing, by Malkiel & Ellis 3.The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing, by you know who I would go in this particular order. However, If I were you I would start with Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing" ( not included in your list). Another highly recommended book, not included in your list, is Swedroe et al, "The Only Guide You Will Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan" : it's comprehensive, concise, and clear. Bernstein's is all of that plus it's entertaining. I won't mention more advanced books about asset allocation and more specialized topics, but you can always check the suggestions in the books you mentioned or you can post a separat...
by HomoLudens
Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Index Funds Eating the World?"
Replies: 44
Views: 9096

Re: "Are Index Funds Eating the World?"

Taylor Larimore wrote:
With the rise of index funds we've seen the shift of dumb money to index funds.
In my opinion, it is the smart money that is shifting to index funds. :wink:

Best wishes.
Taylor

Or, prudent money. Personally, I am always suspicious of arguments involving adjectives. I do recall that in the pre-2008 era, someone popularized the term "dead equity" to stimulate homeowners to take on second mortgages and invest money on the stock market or in other financial instruments. We all know what happened afterwards. So I am happy to be called "dumb money" if this minimizes the risk to the principal.
by HomoLudens
Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Index Funds Eating the World?"
Replies: 44
Views: 9096

Re: "Are Index Funds Eating the World?"

Even the father of passive investing has warned of the potential for 'chaos' if index funds get too popular http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/26/are-index-funds-eating-the-world/ A couple of points: 1. We are talking about the distant future if it does materialize in the way described in the article.But there is no guarantee that it will happen. 2. The catchy title of the original report is "The Silent Road to Serfdom". This is, of course, an allusion to the great book "The Road to Serfdom" by Hayek. Its concept is to use a slippery slope argument to explain the demise of individual freedom as a result of the expropriation of private property . I oversimplified it, but that's about it. I am sorry to say, but invest...
by HomoLudens
Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYC Living Options
Replies: 52
Views: 6874

Re: NYC Living Options

Hey everyone, As I mentioned in another thread, I should be finally starting my dream job shortly. This will require me to move to the NYC area where I will need easy access to all 3 airports, LaGuardia, Kennedy, and sometimes Newark. I've always wanted to live in NYC but could never justify it. Now, I have a chance. My problem is that I cannot for the life of me figure out how to find a decent place and decide whether to buy or rent. I've decided that throwing away $3500 a month in rent isn't worth it. So should I buy? I'd like Manhattan living, but I've never lived there before. I'm a believer of trying before buying, but again, can't justify throwing all of that rent away. It appears that 1 bedroom apartments in Manhattan are going for ...
by HomoLudens
Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for Children
Replies: 32
Views: 3704

Re: Planning for Children

Hello- I've browsed through some older forums to see what was out there and I've come up with the following: 1) Buy life insurance 2) Buy disability insurance 3) Start saving for college 4) Budget for daycare Does anyone have any other pointers? I'm mostly curious what type of disability insurance I should get for my wife? Should I get short term as well? She will be paid a partial salary for the time she is off with the child and will then be going to part time. Any help would be great! Two points: First, please mention your state. Some states' disability insurance is better than others. This will affect your financial calculus of course, Second, familiarize yourself with your benefits under Obamacare. Your wife is entitled to a free brea...
by HomoLudens
Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best/safest/easiest way to send sensitive files to another person over the internet?
Replies: 40
Views: 8590

Re: Best/safest/easiest way to send sensitive files to another person over the internet?

There are some files that I would like to send that contain sensitive information. What is the best and most secure way to do this? My understanding attaching the files to an email is very convenient, but not secure. Thanks!! :sharebeer EDIT: I realize that I said "best/most secure," but I really should have stipulated that ease is critically important as well, since the person who will be sending the files to me is an elderly relative. My two cents: 1/ Register an e-mail account, let's say yahoo; 2/ Set up a password on the document itself; 3/ Upload the document as a draft in the draft folder; 4/ Don't send anything; 5/ Share the passwords for both the account and the document over the phone; 6/ The recipient can then download ...
by HomoLudens
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you view debt?
Replies: 108
Views: 11709

Re: How do you view debt?

Curious how people on this board view debt. It can work for you or against you obviously. You can lever up in real estate -- although not as much as you used to be able to -- and generate a lot of equity. Or you can be stuck needing to move with an illiquid asset and/or with a house you hate. Just curious how the fine, intelligent folks on this board view debt as a risk/opportunity. It seems like half the posts here are congratulatory about getting out of debt, and the other half are perfectly fine with a lot of debt. The way I see it debt is a necessary evil .I operate with a presumption of guilt: debt is considered evil until proven necessary. Even if it is proven necessary, it's still on double secret probation (thank you Dean Wormer) i...
by HomoLudens
Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for First Time Homebuyer
Replies: 17
Views: 2112

Re: Advice for First Time Homebuyer

I have a question for the OP: Does the HOA allow for renting out separate rooms in the townhouse? Some HOA impose restrictions in their bylaws so it's a good idea to check in advance. Checking the flood map is also a good idea.
by HomoLudens
Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC area bogleheads? temp housing question
Replies: 9
Views: 1170

Re: NYC area bogleheads? temp housing question

It looks like I may have an opportunity to work at the federal building in Manhattan for a year, as a temporary assignment. I know NYC apartments are outrageous in price. I am a civil servant, so my salary is adequate for most parts of the country, but not NYC, though it will be adjusted somewhat for the location. I am willing to put nearly all my stuff in storage and live a resident hotel type situation in order to economize. I'd just be bringing a few suitcases and a coffee maker, possibly. I do want/need a safe neighborhood -reasonable commute to work. I guess I'd leave my car at a friend's house a few hours from NYC - and visit the car on the weekends, lol (joking). I'd be out of my apartment much of the time, exploring the city - look...
by HomoLudens
Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 8811

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

HomoLudens, I don't think Taleb's definition of a Black Swan in as far reaching as Hume or others in philosophy. Taleb's range A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the ...
by HomoLudens
Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 8811

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

HomoLudens, since you mentioned Black Swans, Taleb and Hume, maybe we should clarify the difference. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. The non-computability of the prob...
by HomoLudens
Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?
Replies: 55
Views: 8811

Re: How Fama, Shiller, Taleb, Kahneman, Thaler ... compare?

Read Mandelbrot's The Misbehavior of Markets first, before you read any of the others. The Misbehavior of Markets is the elephant in the room. Nobody talks about it (except Taleb) because nobody can get around it, it's the immovable object, but if you take it seriously than it starts to be very hard to take a lot of other work seriously. It nihilistic, tears down all the math-heavy stuff done by people with "physics envy" without mapping any real path to setting up anything in its place. I concur. "The Misbehavior of Market" is irreverent on many levels. And it's worth it. That's why many financial luminaries adopt the strategy: if you can't fight him, ignore him. If someone wants to delve into Mandelbrot, "Fractal...
by HomoLudens
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to fund down payment on second home.
Replies: 14
Views: 2655

Re: How to fund down payment on second home.

Hi, I have some second home buying questions that I thought the group could help me with. Right now I am in the early stages of looking to buy a house. I currently own one was well, that I plan to sell. I am thinking of how to fund the down payment and how much of a payment. I could make the purchase contingent on the sale of my current house. While I have very little doubt I could sell my house, the market I am in does not look favorable to contingent sales. I need cash. I’d like to put 20% down on a 550K house. I can’t save that much up in the time frame we are looking at. I would need to sell some investments. Whatever we sold would be replaced with profit from the sale of our old house. Here are what I believe are my best options: I ca...
by HomoLudens
Sat Aug 13, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1427

Re: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets

Perhaps it is possible to sometimes outsmart the market, but not consistently. The average investor trading stocks is going up against MIT PHDs, working full-time and armed with super-computers. That's even before you factor in their inside information, legal and illegal, which is no doubt a bigger factor than we realize. And even they don't always beat the market because no one can consistently predict the future.. For some inexplicable reason, we tend to think of the market in a strange way by calling "It". The market is not "it"; the market is either us or they. It consists of individuals with different endowments ( intelligence, money, etc.) And this underscores your point about the information inequality among thos...
by HomoLudens
Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1427

Re: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets

Why doesn't your doctor diagnose you with non-existent ailments in order to cure you? Figure that one by yourself. Some do. This guy made tens of millions giving chemo to healthy patients. At least the law caught up to him, but not before hurting many many people and defrauding Medicare. http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/10/us/michigan-cancer-doctor-sentenced/ True. You will find similar examples in every occupation. And an isolated example doesn't prove a general point. On average, however, who is more likely to defraud you: your doctor or your mechanic? Somehow, I think it's the latter rather than the former. Why? Because of the incentives of each group ( a doctor who is tempted to defraud a patient with 5K might potentially lose a future strea...
by HomoLudens
Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1427

Re: Asymmetrical Information and Financial Markets

I found this article very interesting. I did not realize so much had been written on the topic. At first I thought it was counter to a belief in an efficient market but upon reflection maybe the markets are only efficient in a macro sense and over the longer term. Does asymmetrical information create bubbles and other market irrationalities that we only see in hindsight? Interested in what others think. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-11/the-dirty-little-secret-of-finance-asymmetric-information That is a short overview of the literature. A very short overview I must say. Asymmetrical information in itself is not really the problem. It's about how people act on it and the alignment of their preferences and their time horizons...
by HomoLudens
Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fav books about crashes
Replies: 10
Views: 1371

Re: Fav books about crashes

Do you all have any favorite books about the biggest crashes and worst economic times? I'm interested in learning what the signs were indicating that they were about to occur, the psychology of investors during and after the crash and what pulled us out of them. Thanks in advance. :beer Two books: 1. "Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises" by Charles Kindleberger. It's an obvious classic, I am sure many people here have read it. 2. "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson. Unlike the first book, this one isn't popular and that's a pity. He is a former British MP and a gifted writer who produced this account of the hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920s. It's not a typical financial history. It has the fi...
by HomoLudens
Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Encouragement - Debt pay down
Replies: 17
Views: 2211

Re: Encouragement - Debt pay down

My wife and I have been snowballing the debt pay down with great progress. We have encouraged each other over the last 4 years but now seem like we are both out of steam. Any ideas on how we can keep the emotions of ridding ourselves of the debt burden positive and optimistic? I am honestly surprised at how emotional the pay down can become. The road seems long, certainly passable, but so very long. I think it's a good idea to mention the type of debt and its amount. If you are looking for some sort of a behavioral serotonin shot to keep you going, I suggest that you visualize your progress. For example, create a "freedom map": the amount of debt already paid in green, the amount of debt outstanding in red. Every time you pay, th...
by HomoLudens
Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are European Banks Still Safe After Brexit?
Replies: 19
Views: 2587

Re: Are European Banks Still Safe After Brexit?

Confidence. Italy might have next referendum on EU membership. The banking system already needed to be restructured due to NPLs (see my other post) on their existing portfolios of loans. Undercapitalized in an economy which is not growing. Brexit has just kicked it off. Italy will have a referendum on its constitutional reform. In turn, the failure to pass the reform might lead to a referendum for the EU membership, but that' s in the realm of political possibilities. It can happen, it might happen, but who knows. I will doubt that serious Italian politicians will trigger a referendum for the simple reason that it might succeed. We all saw that winning a referendum and benefiting from it are two different things. Boris Johnson just drank t...
by HomoLudens
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 4107

Re: Sin as investment strategy

JCE66 wrote:A pity that there is not a 'sin-based' index fund....
It's a pity indeed. I can easily imagine "sin-growth" and "sin-value" funds. :happy
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - article/source request - please
Replies: 31
Views: 3226

Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Intens wrote:
Rob5TCP wrote:Regrexit -- now a lot of people that did vote leave are having regrets;
there is a campaign with 2 million plus signatures for a re-vote.
Over 100,000 signatures requires parliament to debate it.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/ ... index.html
Some of the regrets are truly hilarious.
For example, the government of Cornwall seeking guarantees that it will continue to receive the same amount of "funding" from the UK as from the EU.
:twisted:

The government of Cornwall doesn't have much of a leverage at this point, does it? Market timing is frowned upon, but political timing occasionally works. Not in the case though.
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - article/source request - please
Replies: 31
Views: 3226

Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

When I can find them, I tend to read a mix of assessments from writers generally considered to be sharp and reliable, throw away any outliers and then try to focus on where the convergence lies. Nevertheless, Ross Perot would have been considered an outlier in 1992 - with his predictions on NAFTA. So, I see some irony there...of course, you have to also factor in the time frame... BFG If you want to read a really serious, yet accessible, source about Europe, I strongly recommend late Tony Judt's book "Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945". That's the best history of modern Europe, nothing comes even close. In Europe, past is far more consequential than it is here. You have to understand it if you want to understand the future....
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

gilgamesh wrote:
The second highest Google search by Brits AFTER the vote was 'What is EU'

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechcons ... rexit-vote

There is glimmer of hope here: At least it wasn't "What's a referendum?"
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - article/source request - please
Replies: 31
Views: 3226

Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

I found this article interesting, and scary: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-leave-why-uk-exit-from-eu-is-so-scary/ I don't want to argue. I will simply point out that the vast majority of articles written by individuals employed by the financial industry are designed to generate business for them. All right, let's assume that I am a cynic. This article, in particular, makes claims about the direction of the market: it's negative. It doesn't , and cannot really, make a claim about the magnitude of the expected change. I am sure most consumers of these articles will be interested to know not the answer to the questions: "Is it bad?" ( somehow they know the answer), but rather "How bad it is?" ( and these articles don'...
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - article/source request - please
Replies: 31
Views: 3226

Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Considering the surprise/shock of the outcome of the vote by so many "experts", I'm not so sure I would be putting any stock in any "expert" that isn't saying, "We simply don't know the future, yet." I have more respect for those "experts" who can voice that simple answer, instead of the ones rolling out some projections of the future. Now, after all this is over, there will be a few "experts" who hit a home run with their predictions. Problem is, which "expert" do you pick NOW? Broken Man 1999 Simple answer: don't trust the experts at least in this case. The Brexit is a complicated process with a lot of unintended consequences that cannot be known, quantified and predicted in adv...
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit - article/source request - please
Replies: 31
Views: 3226

Re: Brexit - article/source request - please

Barefootgirl wrote:Can anyone recommend a least emotional/most realistic/least politicized source for an analysis of the fall out from Brexit?

Maybe a link to a respected blogger or publication? I realize even recommendations will come with their own bias, but I need to start somewhere - most of what I am reading now seems...clouded.

Thanks
It's too early to tell. If you want to know something about the reasons for Brexit rather than the consequences from it, this article might help:http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/th ... of-brexit/
It will help if you know something about modern British history, but even if you don't you will grasp the gist of the argument.
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

The EU will play hardball. THey have to. And they want this done in faster than 2 years. Look if they treat Greece this badly, how can they possibly be soft to us in front of their electorates? Scorched Earth negotiations. You watch. Scorched Earth? No. I don't think so. Punitive in public? No. I don't think so. Borderline punitive behind close doors? Yes. And those who need to know how punitive it was will learn it. And they will think twice before emulating Mr. Cameron's example in monumentally unintelligent party politics. It's not a question of personalities, but a political necessity. Somehow, I was reminded of Orwell's story "Shooting an Elephant". Same situation here. Not to mention that Scotland will have to declare indep...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

TedSwippet wrote:
HomoLudens wrote:I bet British voters didn't think about these nuts and bolts when they voted yesterday.
48.1% of them might have. I did. It didn't help.
I am sorry Ted. That's the downside of the popular democracy. It's a pity, though, that the decision for holding the referendum was taken because of political myopia, fratricidal party infighting, and opportunistic political leaders. Such a great loss for Europe and the European project. I hope that things will work out for the better. I doubt, but I hope.
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France will be strengthened and she is no friend of the EU. Mr. Putin will be delighted to create havoc in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, which will bolster anti-European populists in these countries. There is no choice, but to play hardball without looking punitive, of course. But behind close doors, negotiations will be extremely contentious. Probably, but there are countervailing considerations. Many issues, especially trade, are two way streets. German, French and Spanish m...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

The EU's response will be fascinating to watch. With Greece, the pain of playing hardball was worth it because the risk of contagion to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland was far too high to be worth giving in to a small country like Greece. But the UK is not Greece. Will they play hardball to prevent contagion as France wants to do? Or will they make concessions to the UK to get a better overall UK-EU outcome and risk contagion, as it appears Germany may be willing to do. The EU is going to play hardball. It must play hardball if it wants to preserve the integrity of the Union. It's not about Great Britain per se. Sweden, possibly Denmark, will be in the queue in no time if Great Britain is given an easy ride. Madame Le Pen in France wil...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Epsilon Delta wrote:
Quark wrote:
EDIT: The EU says:
We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press ... eferendum/
Oh the irony. If the EU had a tradition of honoring referenda there would be no Lisbon Treaty.
I concur, but I wonder whether there is a person who honestly believes that the EU is an embodiment of popular democracy. It's not . It wasn't designed to be democratic; it was designed to preserve peace.
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)
Replies: 46
Views: 5601

Re: don't deal in GBP pound sterling today (June 23 2016)

Valuethinker, I frequently hear that trade will be disrupted as a result of Brexit. Is there any reason the UK can't continue to trade with the rest of the EU and others, even in the absence of formal trade agreements? Can't they just trade? The EU required free migration. What restrictions are there now in migration to the UK and UK movement to the EU? Is Brexit effective immediately or is there a time frame? Boris Johnson is strongest candidate to replace him. When will elections take place? By strongest do you mean most likely to be elected? Read piece referenced above. Treaty of Rome (Lisbon?) means 2 years before anything formally happens. So business as usual, probably for at least 2 years. Ditto migration (no controls). As to free t...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I have International stock
Replies: 6
Views: 1220

Re: I have International stock

mule wrote:I have been following the news and I really didn't do much but watch what happened. I do have some international stock. So I have a stupid question but will I lose all those funds?
I'm retired and I don't buy stocks any more so not sure what to do. I have 20 plus years before I would need to use my investments in stocks and international funds.
Thanks
No, you won't lose them, but they may drop in value. It will help if you tell us what exactly you are holding. Please stay calm.
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boy, did someone at Fido ever jump the gun
Replies: 13
Views: 3935

Re: Boy, did someone at Fido ever jump the gun

There's a "Viewpoints" article on the front page of fidelity.com this morning with the title "Markets rally on Brexit “no” vote". It's a pretty decent article, actually, with an interview with one of Fidelity's senior VP's, discussing what the (supposed) "no" vote meant. If only it were accurate. I love this line in particular: HOFSCHIRE: From an economic perspective, most academics and policymakers agree that a Brexit vote would have been negative for Britain, and to a lesser extent Europe. The boy is a master of understatement, that one. :beer The referendum presented two options: "Remain" and "Leave" ,not "yes" or "no". But I agree, that's truly an understatement. I w...
by HomoLudens
Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: cost of raising kids. BHs experience through college
Replies: 76
Views: 8997

Re: cost of raising kids. BHs experience through college

Piano lessons were worth it for us too. But it wasn't always fun for any of us when they were little and had to practice. Although we look back and laugh about it sometimes, other times some of us remember how miserable it was getting a six year old to sit and practice every night. The consultation prize is that two of our older three now play for their own enjoyment and play very well. The third won't go near a piano and the fourth (still little) doesn't get lessons yet because I'm in no hurry to do this again. Piano lessons can be expensive. :moneybag I concur in theory with no practical experience as of yet. That's why I really hope that you can enlighten me: 1. What's the best age to start piano lessons? (It's subjective of course, but...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?
Replies: 51
Views: 6002

Re: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?

The "hot spot" to me remains the frontiers in the Balkans and Eastern Europe-- that undefined boundary between "Europe" and "not Europe". But it's pretty clear that Lithuania-Latvia-Estonia are now on the European side of that frontier, along with Poland etc. Weakening of the EU will lead to relative strengthening of Russia. I wonder if Russian bonds provide a hedge against those in the Eurozone. Victoria I don't think a stronger Russia necessarily means stronger Russian bonds . Adventurism such as deeper involvement in the Ukraine, or mischief in Poland or the Baltics is unlikely to help Russia's credit rating. I agree. I am always suspicious of adjectives especially "strong" and "weak". M...
by HomoLudens
Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighborhood kids setting up lemonade stand on my property
Replies: 102
Views: 14867

Re: Neighborhood kids setting up lemonade stand on my property

White Coat Investor wrote:When they show up, buy all the lemonade. Then they're gone! Some problems can and should be solved with money.
I agree with the general principle. In this particular case, however, following your advice will mean that the lemonade stand will be transformed into an extortion racket in no time.
by HomoLudens
Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?
Replies: 51
Views: 6002

Re: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?

Valuethinker wrote:
donfairplay wrote:Weimar Republic, only this time with 19 to 28 countries.
You are kidding, right?
Probably, but it will be a spectacular sight to see. Guy Fawkes Night of international finance. The comparison with the Weimar Republic isn't proper of course. The reasons for the German hyperinflation in 1920s are very different from what we have today. But it reminded me of a great book about the hyperinflation in Germany: "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson.
by HomoLudens
Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Replies: 162
Views: 25537

Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario

In reality, we don't know because the withdrawal procedure is relatively new and it has never been tested in practice (One point no one really noticed is the potential for lawsuits at the Court of Justice of the European Union in Luxembourg; these lawsuits are very likely because there are many parties interested in setting the precedent for withdrawals. The Court itself is very keen on preserving the integrity of the Union and its rulings will affect the withdrawal process. The polls have been pretty much level up to the last week or so, but recently having Brexit establishing momentum and seeing a progressively widening lead in many of the polls that previously had Brexit behind. Assuming a apparent more likely Brexit majority vote on th...
by HomoLudens
Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?
Replies: 51
Views: 6002

Re: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?

If there is a Brexit, an impetus could be provided for more countries to leave the EU. Some of these may, in a worst case scenario, be eurozone countries like France. What would happen to Eurozone government bond index funds and ETFs in such a scenario? How would a eurozone Boglehead hedge against this in his portfolio? Well, I don't subscribe to the premise that more countries will want to leave: a version of the domino effect theory. True, there are populist parties that claim that reasserting national sovereignty is the best course of action. But talking the talk and walking the walk are two different things. In addition, leaving the EU in some countries will entail constitutional amendments. In general, it's a long and tedious process ...