Search found 475 matches

by TomCat96
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 229
Views: 13068

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

0% international here. By international, I mean ex-US. Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you...
by TomCat96
Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2338

Re: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"

There's going to be disagreement as to what constitutes a bull and bear market. But I think the point that piques the general sentiment is that it feels like we've gone awhile without a major crash. Twenty percent drops are not particularly dramatic events if they occur over long periods. This is es...
by TomCat96
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2098

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

Hi there! Is there a better way to put your money besides investing in index funds? What alternative investment method would yield a higher return over the long term with underlying value? The only investments that routinely beat the stock market are investments of a personal nature which include: ...
by TomCat96
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 307
Views: 19616

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Count me among those who think Musk did this to go after the short positions. There's a war between the shorts and Musk in a manner that I never seen with any other company. I'm not at all surprised that TSLA is the most shorted company in history. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to think the...
by TomCat96
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SPG rewards....sucks?
Replies: 24
Views: 2591

Re: SPG rewards....sucks?

Apologize in advance as it is a bit of a rant....everyone is talking about how valuable SPG rewards are (i.e. 2.7 cent per point). But when I try to redeem my 30K points, I feel that all the planets have to align before I find a hotel that I want. My first issue is with the "value" of the rewards. ...
by TomCat96
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12621

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

What is irking me and I think others is that you're implying everyone that give advice other than yours is wrong. Advice given for free on the internet and AA is very personal and there is no one way to do it for everyone. You're coming across like you're the advice police, and that's not cool. Are...
by TomCat96
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12621

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

"Own your age in bonds" is repeated so often as conventional wisdom that I'm not sure many investors stop and appreciate just how bad this piece of advice is. I decided that one way to evaluate this "rule of thumb" would be compare it to expert asset allocation models from three top-rated target da...
by TomCat96
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you keep your math skills sharp?
Replies: 29
Views: 1495

Re: How do you keep your math skills sharp?

Thank you everyone for your responses. I didn't want to leave the thread without my own contributions however, to those who might also want to keep their skills sharp. 3blue1brown is an outstanding youtuber with in my opinion, the absolute best math channel overall. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s...
by TomCat96
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you keep your math skills sharp?
Replies: 29
Views: 1495

Re: How do you keep your math skills sharp?

I'm a retired engineer and do absolutely nothing to keep my math skills sharp. But they are still there to some degree if I need them. Can you give us an example or two of what sort of math related problems you are dealing with? Not any problem in particular. I've started learning tensorflow, which...
by TomCat96
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you keep your math skills sharp?
Replies: 29
Views: 1495

How do you keep your math skills sharp?

I've always felt my math skills were a little lackluster for an engineer. My career branched from engineering early on into intellectual property law. Now I find myself struggling to keep abreast of newer technical developments, particularly machine learning. I've been perusing wikipedia, and lookin...
by TomCat96
Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2155

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

Mean Reversion is one of those concepts that when used in finance borders on sophistry. It's a more legitimate equivalent of saying "what goes up must come down." It gives no timeline to when it may occur, and thus has an unlimited window to gain acceptance as a legitimate tool of analysis. As other...
by TomCat96
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Crypto Allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3055

Re: High Crypto Allocation

Cryptos are fundamentally incompatible with boglehead philosophy with reasons that have nothing to do with the merits of cryptos themselves. The boglehead portfolio has certain tenets which make it work in the first place. In the case of the typical 3-fund portfolio, you are investing in diversified...
by TomCat96
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does technical data matter?
Replies: 16
Views: 823

Re: Does technical data matter?

Since so many traders are looking for market patterns to govern their next move, does technical data actually matter? This is a general question as I do not believe in basing my investing off of it, but wondering if it is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy? Guessing it's the sort of thing that caus...
by TomCat96
Sat May 26, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy to pay off my 30-yr fixed 3.625 mortgage?
Replies: 139
Views: 17333

Re: Am I crazy to pay off my 30-yr fixed 3.625 mortgage?

My situation: - I have 2 rental condos in a building that is being de-converted from condos into an apartment building (whole building is being sold, at a big premium over market value, to a big real estate investor.) - I no longer want to be a landlord, so I am choosing not to do a 1031 exchange, ...
by TomCat96
Fri May 25, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 3095

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by TomCat96
Thu May 24, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Crypto tokens in private sale prior to ICO
Replies: 21
Views: 1353

Re: Buying Crypto tokens in private sale prior to ICO

They have some pitch on their platform but it is way too complicated gibberish for me to understand. I think you have answered your own question. +1 I wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole. Take a look at this ICO. The Howeycoin. They plan on revolutionizing travel through cryptocurrencies. This ...
by TomCat96
Thu May 24, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 34
Views: 2127

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

I don’t know the answer to the question in the subject, but the following (no doubt biased) backtest is interesting. It compares: 70% US equity 30% developed markets equity 70% US equity 24% developed markets equity 6% emerging markets equity 70% US equity 24% developed markets equity 6% precious m...
by TomCat96
Mon May 21, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 109
Views: 13686

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I would argue that once you have hit your goal prior to the "strike date", the remaining time is irrelevant. The point is that one has the option of taking the entirety of one's investment out of the market and moving it to riskless treasuries for the remainder of the time period. Remaining in the m...
by TomCat96
Wed May 09, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Professor Andrew Lo interviews John Bogle
Replies: 10
Views: 1951

Re: Professor Andrew Lo interviews John Bogle

I deleted one of my earlier posts but I'm reposting it here because I just don't understand what could possibly have been meant and am gobsmacked. At around 22:00 is this an accurate quotation by Bogle? "...and interestingly enough, unlike your question, ..." I could hardly believe hearing that. Wa...
by TomCat96
Mon May 07, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to buy new underwear?
Replies: 86
Views: 6695

Re: When to buy new underwear?

Are there any issues with wearing the same boxer briefs for a really long time? Assuming they are kept clean, washed, etc. My partner says underwear has to be changed out every year, but that does not make any sense to me. I only swap them out when the waistband, which is usually the first thing to...
by TomCat96
Fri May 04, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6951

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I'm about to out myself, but I have recently departed from boglehead philosophy and have started active investing again. On that point let me be concise and say, the boglehead portfolio techniques has now for me become one tool in a greater toolbox of investing strategies. But regarding the other to...
by TomCat96
Thu May 03, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US resident (non-citizen) soon returning needs advice
Replies: 8
Views: 1060

Re: A timid investor needs a serious guidance

If I were you, I would invest as if my investment horizon was 7-8 years. It is unreasonable to expect a 7-8% return a year in the next 8 years. As you wrote, it's a long run bull market. In reality, if you had only a 7-8 year horizon, you would probably be very heavily invested in bonds. So this pre...
by TomCat96
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation modeling. 250k capital gains waiver
Replies: 0
Views: 353

Valuation modeling. 250k capital gains waiver

This is a complex question because it is so ambiguous. As many of you know, every 5 years up to 250k of capital gains on a sale of real estate may be excluded subject to the requirements disclosed in the link. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701 A few financially savvy individuals therefore move eve...
by TomCat96
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock and Currency Issues
Replies: 41
Views: 2918

Re: International Stock and Currency Issues

I'm trying to understand the potential downsides/upsides of international diversification as it relates to currency issues. I've read that currency fluctuations are a risk factor with international stocks, but haven't been able to gain a full understanding this issue. A specific question that comes...
by TomCat96
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about Benjamin Graham
Replies: 19
Views: 1800

Re: Questions about Benjamin Graham

So, Im reading the intelligent investor right now and I have a few questions. I am on Chapter 10 and overall the detail in the book is really good. However, I feel at times alot of the information in this book does not apply to me. There are very sound pieces of advice regarding Index Funds, but at...
by TomCat96
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many shares of VT can I buy without affecting the price?
Replies: 20
Views: 2690

Re: How many shares of VT can I buy without affecting the price?

I don't know the exact answer to your question, and I don't think anyone does. That being said, as a general statement for all markets, you have listings of sell offers and potentially willing buyers in the background. Regardless of the form of these offers, and regardless of the market, there are u...
by TomCat96
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Outward signs of a private company failing
Replies: 20
Views: 1364

Re: Outward signs of a private company failing

Please, let's focus on the question at hand. What are the external signs of a failing private company? I don't know how applicable this is to private companies, but I have heard that one sure sign of trouble is that the auditing firm resigns. It makes sense that the auditing firm would refuse to si...
by TomCat96
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 7089

Re: Warren Buffett Dislikes Bonds

I've asked a similar question on another thread , but I'm still waiting for answers. Let's say that I'm 40 and I plan to buy a Toyota Camry (MRSP $23,500 according to toyota.com/camry/)) at age 70, 30 years from now. I'd like to know how much money should I invest, today, in Vanguard's S&P 500 fund...
by TomCat96
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?
Replies: 63
Views: 5289

Re: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?

Most bogle heads believe that it is impossible to time the stock market profitably. But many of these same bogleheads also think it is possible to time the housing market. Why is this? Are we talking about the housing market in the national sense? Or are we talking about timing the purchases of hom...
by TomCat96
Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Strategies to combat the urge to spend?
Replies: 68
Views: 4311

Re: Strategies to combat the urge to spend?

Hi all, I am loving the boglehead way and hope to retire substantially early to do what I love. (Or not do anything, depending on the day!) However, emotional urges to spend are getting difficult to control as my wealth increases. For example, I am highly tempted to buy a new luxury car. This would...
by TomCat96
Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?
Replies: 244
Views: 24756

Re: In what ways could BogleHeads be badly wrong ?

The broad BogleHead investment philosophy has (or would have) served investors well for the last few decades. i.e. establish a stock/bond mix in line with age/risk; invest in a broad, low cost index funds; hold and rebalance over cycles. Is that going to be true going forward ? Whats the possibilit...
by TomCat96
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Grade (barely)
Replies: 9
Views: 1286

Re: Investment Grade (barely)

This is exactly why Im 100% stocks and unapologetic about it. There is nothing new about this. It is in the inherent nature of profit seeking to reach unduly for yield. When the only thing holding one back from reaching for yield is a risk analysis and self discipline, I think it inevitable for such...
by TomCat96
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting money back into a roth ira
Replies: 3
Views: 587

Re: Putting money back into a roth ira

that is a good point. I maxed out contributions for both 2016 and 2017. (5500 per year for 2 years) I took out 10600. I didn't fill out any paper work, I merely withdrew the money. It has been less than 60 days since I have done so and I intend to put the money back. Should I put the money back thro...
by TomCat96
Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting money back into a roth ira
Replies: 3
Views: 587

Putting money back into a roth ira

I took out money from my Roth IRA, transferring to my back account due to an emergency. I now wish to return the amount I took out back into the Roth IRA. I didn't explicitly specify that the withdrawal was to be a loan.

Can I return this money back to my IRA without it raising tax consequences?
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 89
Views: 8288

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Somewhere back I read that evidence seems to support the semi-strong form as the most reflective of current stock markets. It's definitely not strong form. at any rate, is bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history? I don't think that's even close to remotely true, either in real or nomi...
by TomCat96
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 5225

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I'm close to a total bitcoin skeptic, but I think that it is a very bad mental habit to use language like "when bitcoin blows up." We don't know that it will. And even if it does, we don't know when, or how much more it will grow before it does. I realize that "when" is just shorthand, but if your ...
by TomCat96
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 208 Volt 3 phase
Replies: 13
Views: 1571

Re: 208 Volt 3 phase

I suspect both are right, because they are answering different questions. You cannot connect a SINGLE 600 A 120 V load. You CAN connect up to 200 A 120 V loads to EACH phase. So the total current draw to all the loads can add up to 600 A. If you are in IT I suspect you are considering connecting ma...
by TomCat96
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 208 Volt 3 phase
Replies: 13
Views: 1571

208 Volt 3 phase

Don't worry I won't take electrical advice here as dispositive, and I have no intention of relying solely on anonymous opinions on the internet. Nevertheless the feedback here is useful and helpful in directing me where to look. The question is this: I am starting my own IT company and I am looking...
by TomCat96
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix
Replies: 38
Views: 4381

Re: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:26 pm
From long term perspective, is the 60/40 a sleep and forget mix or 80/20 mix?
100% 0% is my sleep mix. I would feel far too agitated with 60/40
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1937
Views: 352787

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

What is the main purpose of this thread It's a brag thread :D If this thread provokes anyone's jealousy. I think that person is in the wrong place. My father's portfolio is 100% bonds. I am 100% stock. I did better than him. But he is 40 years older than me. Am I better? Am i superior investor? Sho...
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?
Replies: 120
Views: 22549

Re: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?

I am reluctant to share my financial information. But without letting you know my situation I do not think I can receive good advice. Please let me know your thoughts and any or all of what I write below. Thanks in advance. Today I met my first threshold. 4 million. I celebrated this by changing al...
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 9970

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

OP here. The fact that we will be a dual pension household pension in retirement makes me feel no reason to take on unnecessary risk. Yes, pensions are not guaranteed but ours is stable and should be enough to provide for all of our expenses. I have read others on the board who would take more risk...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 9970

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

A 60/40 will give you a greater reward relative to risk taken than a 70/30, 80/20, all the way up to 100/0 One aspect about the efficient frontier is that there an infinite number of optimal portfolios. But as you up your stock ratio, you are surely taking on more risk than you are being rewarded. N...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 33312

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Somewhere down the line, we're going to experience a stock market so depressed for a period so long, this thread will be remembered for the preposterousness of its premise.
by TomCat96
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 149
Views: 18391

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he m...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 13064

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead. I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of ...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 5194

Re: Gold?

Does holding actual gold coins make sense as part of an overall strategy for long term investments? The older generations in my family, being from the old country, had a strong urge to hold gold. Not gold stocks but the real deal coins. I inherited my share of the family gold and have added a bit t...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 13064

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead. I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of ...
by TomCat96
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe investments for a declining market
Replies: 19
Views: 3572

Re: Safe investments for a declining market

I know you are not supposed to try and "time" the market, but what is a good place to put your money if you think the market is going to go on a decline? If you thought there was going to be a decline, but didn't want to pull all your investments out into cash funds what would you do? Re allocate i...