Search found 441 matches

by TomCat96
Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6505

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Somewhere back I read that evidence seems to support the semi-strong form as the most reflective of current stock markets. It's definitely not strong form. at any rate, is bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history? I don't think that's even close to remotely true, either in real or nomi...
by TomCat96
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4113

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I'm close to a total bitcoin skeptic, but I think that it is a very bad mental habit to use language like "when bitcoin blows up." We don't know that it will. And even if it does, we don't know when, or how much more it will grow before it does. I realize that "when" is just shorthand, but if your ...
by TomCat96
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 208 Volt 3 phase
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

Re: 208 Volt 3 phase

I suspect both are right, because they are answering different questions. You cannot connect a SINGLE 600 A 120 V load. You CAN connect up to 200 A 120 V loads to EACH phase. So the total current draw to all the loads can add up to 600 A. If you are in IT I suspect you are considering connecting ma...
by TomCat96
Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 208 Volt 3 phase
Replies: 13
Views: 1242

208 Volt 3 phase

Don't worry I won't take electrical advice here as dispositive, and I have no intention of relying solely on anonymous opinions on the internet. Nevertheless the feedback here is useful and helpful in directing me where to look. The question is this: I am starting my own IT company and I am looking...
by TomCat96
Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix
Replies: 38
Views: 3476

Re: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:26 pm
From long term perspective, is the 60/40 a sleep and forget mix or 80/20 mix?
100% 0% is my sleep mix. I would feel far too agitated with 60/40
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1617
Views: 289531

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

What is the main purpose of this thread It's a brag thread :D If this thread provokes anyone's jealousy. I think that person is in the wrong place. My father's portfolio is 100% bonds. I am 100% stock. I did better than him. But he is 40 years older than me. Am I better? Am i superior investor? Sho...
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?
Replies: 100
Views: 13527

Re: Reached 4M target. Taking money off table. Advice?

I am reluctant to share my financial information. But without letting you know my situation I do not think I can receive good advice. Please let me know your thoughts and any or all of what I write below. Thanks in advance. Today I met my first threshold. 4 million. I celebrated this by changing al...
by TomCat96
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 8481

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

OP here. The fact that we will be a dual pension household pension in retirement makes me feel no reason to take on unnecessary risk. Yes, pensions are not guaranteed but ours is stable and should be enough to provide for all of our expenses. I have read others on the board who would take more risk...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 8481

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

A 60/40 will give you a greater reward relative to risk taken than a 70/30, 80/20, all the way up to 100/0 One aspect about the efficient frontier is that there an infinite number of optimal portfolios. But as you up your stock ratio, you are surely taking on more risk than you are being rewarded. N...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 15960

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Somewhere down the line, we're going to experience a stock market so depressed for a period so long, this thread will be remembered for the preposterousness of its premise.
by TomCat96
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 142
Views: 13869

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he m...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10598

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead. I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of ...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 3726

Re: Gold?

Does holding actual gold coins make sense as part of an overall strategy for long term investments? The older generations in my family, being from the old country, had a strong urge to hold gold. Not gold stocks but the real deal coins. I inherited my share of the family gold and have added a bit t...
by TomCat96
Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10598

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I was sitting in a cafe a couple of months ago, I didn't buy Bitcoin when it was $4600 per Bitcoin. I even had my bank info authenticated the few days prior. I think my PC battery died and I went to the gym instead. I don't really need the money, but I'd be lying if I said I don't feel a twinge of ...
by TomCat96
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe investments for a declining market
Replies: 19
Views: 3163

Re: Safe investments for a declining market

I know you are not supposed to try and "time" the market, but what is a good place to put your money if you think the market is going to go on a decline? If you thought there was going to be a decline, but didn't want to pull all your investments out into cash funds what would you do? Re allocate i...
by TomCat96
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2430

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

I find that I am my own worse enemy for almost all things in life, not just investing.
by TomCat96
Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 13924

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

Dave Ramsey is catering the to average american with zero financial literacy. For them indeed, it is safer to rule out credit cards all together. You are a person with a brain. You know yourself. You know your habits. You know whether you can control your own spending or not. It's that simple. But i...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3211

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

It did not exist prior to 2009. It has no inherent value. Where does such an asset fit into a plan we're supposed to follow for 30, 40 years? Nowhere. There are a lot of currencies that have no inherent value. The problems with bitcoin lie elsewhere. As a result I haven't purchased any bitcoins. Th...
by TomCat96
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3211

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

I think good bitcoin criticism is beneficial. However, you might consider reviewing some of the more established sources of research on it. There's actually an in-depth bitcoin wiki, with over 1,000 pages: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page . That wiki has its own page on scalability that's over ...
by TomCat96
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2710

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

avalpert's exactly right. If we're just going by the subject of this thread, I think it really should be closed. I'm pretty sure it'd be some type of SEC violation for a fund to claim to be able to beat the market. I'm not aware of a single one that makes that claim, or anything close to it. I know...
by TomCat96
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2710

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

Perhaps it's because I tend to read things that reinforce my beliefs (modern American that I am...) but it seems to me those who establish such funds know they won't succeed in the long term but hope that intelligent marketing in the media, the web and through a large network of brokerage advisors ...
by TomCat96
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 3328

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

If anything, I would take this as a reason why NOT to indiscriminately invest in the global asset allocation. My 401k is 100% diversified small *mid cap stocks. My father's 401k is 100% bonds. The global allocation is somewhere between the two. The global allocation doesn't give a crap my risk toler...
by TomCat96
Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 45641

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

How much international stock is a decision I use my judgment for. I find nothing compelling about the argument of using a global market cap weight any more than I find using the global capital allocation between stocks and bonds to be a compelling AA for my portfolio. Whatever the global market cap ...
by TomCat96
Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I compute year to date returns?
Replies: 10
Views: 1155

Re: How do I compute year to date returns?

In your example, "the amount of gains one has made to date since the beginning of the year" is (110000-100000)+(6000-5000) = $11,000. Ron Correct. But what is the YTD return? Is my return 11%, since I started the year with 100k? One could say I started with 105k and ended with 116k which would yiel...
by TomCat96
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I compute year to date returns?
Replies: 10
Views: 1155

How do I compute year to date returns?

How do I exactly calculate year to date returns? I have searched online for an answer but keep finding websites which conflate the idea of annualized returns with year to date returns...the amount of gains one has made to date since the beginning of the year. For instance: Suppose I have a portfolio...
by TomCat96
Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calculating max electrical load of your home
Replies: 34
Views: 2327

Re: Calculating max electrical load of your home

Thank you everyone for all the replies. (especially calijim) I got my question answered, which was essentially an inartful way of asking "what don't I know?" I did not intend to use the advice here to go do electrical work on my own, but rather to get some general knowledge which would allow me to e...
by TomCat96
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The theory seems irrelevant. How does one execute?
Replies: 23
Views: 1901

Re: The theory seems irrelevant. How does one execute?

I made some money from cryptocurrency. This is not a post on the merits of cryptocurrency. I have been fortunate enough to have done well from it. I am young (ish?). 27. I want to invest my profit into a sustainable long term diversified portfolio that grows my wealth. In principle if my money kept...
by TomCat96
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calculating max electrical load of your home
Replies: 34
Views: 2327

Calculating max electrical load of your home

I'm thinking of upgrading my home electrical service, but before I do I want to be able to calculate the max load my current service can handle. In particular I'm trying to figure out as a practical matter what my home can and cannot handle. There's a general rule that says you don't want to run mor...
by TomCat96
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston
Replies: 35
Views: 6514

Re: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston

I live in Houston and currently rent. Was previously a homeowner. I no longer view home ownership as a means to financial independence or even as a life milestone. I've seen too many people lose a lot of home equity making panic moves. There's a lot of mixed feelings on this debate, some people wan...
by TomCat96
Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is this person wrong? Says beating the market is easy.
Replies: 30
Views: 3201

Re: Why is this person wrong? Says beating the market is easy.

I haven't tested his strategy. But almost by definition beating the market cannot be easy. Beating the market is always a self-correcting strategy. It's easy to see why too. Any exploitation of the market will lead to someone taking advantage of the opportunity until the opportunity is extinguished....
by TomCat96
Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?
Replies: 20
Views: 3530

Re: Why Total Stock Market vs. Extended Market?

Expense ratio's aside, and assuming that funds are in tax-advantaged accounts, what's your reasoning for choosing Total Stock market over Extended market? Total Stock market is comprised ~80/20% of S&P 500 and Extended market. Hence, if Total Stock market is outperforming the S&P 500, it is due to ...
by TomCat96
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 16658

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Hi all, Over time I've come to respect and value your collective knowledge and willingness to discuss and help each other understand stuff. Based on my poor (and likely flawed) understanding of the actual reasons behind the 3-fund portfolio or index investing in general, I want to discuss if Bitcoi...
by TomCat96
Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1617
Views: 289531

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+22.17% YTD

Risk assumed was far in excess of 100% stocks. (i'll write about this later)
by TomCat96
Fri Sep 01, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 18352

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

The boglehead philosophy is and should inherently be an uninteresting one. But uninteresting doesn't mean inaccurate. It doesn't mean wrong, or deficient. Here simplicity is valued over complexity and our one task is to stay the course. That is what has been proven to work. Additional papers and dis...
by TomCat96
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 34871

Re: What is Bitcoin?

The problem with bitcoin is the scalability. The whole structure fundamentally cannot possibly scale to take on the transactions of any major currency. If the whole blockchain is being passed around to the entire network, there's no way that my getting a coffee paying with bitcoin can post to a bloc...
by TomCat96
Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can stocks or Bitcoin drop to about zero?
Replies: 45
Views: 4067

Re: Can stocks or Bitcoin drop to about zero?

Can bitcoin drop to zero? Why not ask the source itself? This is what one of the bitcoin developers said, Gavin wrote to me only days after the BitCoinJ release to tell me how happy he was to see an alternative implementation. Satoshi expressed very similar sentiments. Nobody is against alternative ...
by TomCat96
Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 40
Views: 5525

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

I posed this question to myself and on bogleheads 2 years ago and this is what I found: 1. My mathematical models overwhelmingly favor stocks over real estate. I assumed: a) Investment of a 20% downpayment in a 100% stock portfolio. b) annual returns of 10% a year compounded. c) investment of each m...
by TomCat96
Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1164

Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]

This question is a bit of a narrow issue, but a few of you are cryptocurrency enthusiasts. How do I ensure that my private key remains safe when transacting with it, when sending money from an address. From what I have been able to tell, private keys may be encrypted through BIP38, which itself uses...
by TomCat96
Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1115604

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?

Trump Jr. released e-mails.
by TomCat96
Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How smart is the market?
Replies: 12
Views: 872

Re: How smart is the market?

I remember him saying at the time, the market's ability to price in the results of such actions was poor. What do you mean by this? I am going to take a guess. Companies merger because the merger will create synergy. 2 + 2 = 5. The target company usually makes off like a bandit. They are able to ra...
by TomCat96
Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How smart is the market?
Replies: 12
Views: 872

How smart is the market?

How smart is the market? Years ago I was talking with one of my law professors for an antitrust class I was taking. His specialty focused on the law concerning whether or the the department of justice would block mergers by companies on the grounds of antitrust regulation. To put it simply, certain ...
by TomCat96
Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing physical gold??
Replies: 71
Views: 10916

Re: Purchasing physical gold??

For those of you who practice this, where to you usually buy? I would like some leads to follow. Thank you If you want to buy physical gold: 1. Goto ebay. 2. Buy APMEX By now, I'm sure APMEX actually has a regular non-ebay site, so you can go there as well. I've never purchased from APMEX personall...
by TomCat96
Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anything wrong with 100% US Stocks?
Replies: 35
Views: 3102

Re: Anything wrong with 100% US Stocks?

Since this topic has come up so many times, let me just tell you were the chips fall on the philosophical debate. We'll examine this quote by Bogle that simplesauce was so kind to share: Argument #1 "And we also have shareholder protections that can be taken for granted. Outside of the U.S., you can...
by TomCat96
Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Best Way to Invest in Cryptocurrencies?
Replies: 16
Views: 2962

Re: What's the Best Way to Invest in Cryptocurrencies?

I want to put some money that I can afford to lose (10k) into cryptocurrencies. I'm doing this because I think this emerging market has great potential and can be very rewarding for an early investor. But, there is a daunting number of currencies to choose from, so I'm feeling a bit overwhelmed. To...
by TomCat96
Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 7948

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

Hey Bogleheads! I've got an idea for a thread that I think would be interesting, so I will go ahead and start it off. What are your favorite portfolio tilts? These can be a tilt toward a particular sector, toward a particular factor, anything. They should hopefully be backed up by evidence that the...
by TomCat96
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 211
Views: 15786

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

Tomcat, I only read the top quarter of your post before I wrote my response. The initial assumption about initial and final value didn't make sense because final value will depend on volatilitynalong the way. I think you clarified that several lines down in your post, so I may have been overly hars...
by TomCat96
Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment
Replies: 28
Views: 2586

Re: Adding new money to bond funds in rising interest environment

Hello everyone, I trying to decide what to do with excess cash that I have sitting around. Though I'm generally not a market-timer, I am hesitant to invest significant amounts of additional capital into the market at current valuations outside of my regular investment plan. In that regard, I'm cons...
by TomCat96
Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 211
Views: 15786

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

Someone correct me if I'm mistaken. But I'm still of the opinion that volatility drag is a non-issue. This is like one of those times someone goes into great elaboration of minor points, but fails to address the threshold question. Why not simply look at the starting dollar value and the ending dol...