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TomCat96

Your question makes no sense. Define efficiency. Is the price of oil set by a cartel efficient? Are prices set by a monopoly efficient? (I am including Oligopoly and Cartels in the definition of Monopoly) The price of oil is set by supply and demand. What does a cartel pricing mean then?

TomCat96

How does the market *accurately* price in that their extraction, processing or distribution facilities might (as happened in the last six weeks) or might not be militarily attacked? Intellectually honest people know that the answer to the above is “It can’t.” If accurate price discovery isn’t a con...

TomCat96

JBTX wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:30 pm
Your question makes no sense. Define efficiency.

Is the price of oil set by a cartel efficient?
Are prices set by a monopoly efficient?

(I am including Oligopoly and Cartels in the definition of Monopoly)

TomCat96

Are monopolies efficient?

Suppose we have a cartel, that cartel sets the price of oil. Is that price efficient?

TomCat96

Thesaints wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:52 pm
Whoever holds an international index fund "will participate". So what ?
It seems like you know something others don't and Aramco's actual value is in fact a lot lower than what the market estimates presently.

Let me ask you another question.
Is a monopoly efficient?

TomCat96

Whoever holds an international index fund "will participate". So what ? It seems like you know something others don't and Aramco's actual value is in fact a lot lower than what the market estimates presently. Red flag number #1. Do I dare know something the market does not? Let's talk about this id...

TomCat96

Saudi Aramco is set to go IPO, with valuations going anywhere from 1.2 Trillion to 2 Trillion. Will you be participating in this IPO? At the end of 2018, the total world stock market capitalization stood at 40.6 trillion, with the United States occupying 54.4% of that. The remainder Ex-US was at 45....

TomCat96

"who are not prone to panic" is an enormous assumtion. That young, new investor (who has not been through a stock market crash with significant money invested) cannot possibly know if that assumption will hold. I put in this in the category of reaching into the subjective state of the other individ...

TomCat96

I don't. I only think bonds are for people who lay awake worrying about market corrections. I view them as opportunities to deploy whatever cash I might have waiting. [ u]I am also going to be adding at least another $500k to my portfolio in the next few years [/u]s o I am hoping for a few years of...

TomCat96

It doesn't taste off so much as bland. Like red wine, but blander than usual. You may have accidentally grabbed a bottle of merlot. I’d just drink it and be more careful next time. Incidentally, both bottles of the bland questionable wine are merlots, one from 2014, the other from 2016. The cab ver...

TomCat96

leaving it sit exposing it to air did reduce the nail polish smell.

It doesn't taste off so much as bland. Like red wine, but blander than usual.

TomCat96

How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?

Tried to google for some answers but couldn't find anything definitive.

Red wine smells a little like nail polish remover, but otherwise color seems fine (no browning)
Taste is a little bland, but doesn't seem to taste off.

TomCat96

I would be interested in such a guide.

TomCat96

After clicking on Mel's OP link and going to an arbitrary page, I realized that the thread is pretty old. That said, a couple of days ago, I was updating my investments spreadsheet and noticed that for the year ending 09/30/2019, extended market has been outperformed by S&P500. Doesn't that essenti...

TomCat96

I noticed in the other thread that Tomcat holds "Completion index" without the SP500. Indeed I do. And as per the issue of whether or not the completion index is a proxy for midcaps, no I don't believe it is. You're getting a lot of other exposure to small caps in there, and yes as mentioned a few ...

TomCat96

Ive been doing some research and have had some discussions with some friends who are more investment-savvy than myself, about bonds. One of my friends said that you should always have some bonds no matter how risk tolerant one may be. Another friend said the same thing, that it doesnt make much sen...

TomCat96

No you will not be ok. You will be reduced to eating beans, and I'm not even sure you can afford that. At 4.26M, your average income from parking your money in riskfree treasuries exceeds the annual income of the average American. Your savings exceeds the average couple your age, by 387 times. What ...

TomCat96

Mathematically, 100% equities is likely to be optimal if you are a long way from retirement. However, I recommend only 80% equities until you have been through a bear market with a stock-heavy portfolio, so that you actually know your risk tolerance. Many investors pulled out of the stock market in...

TomCat96

Just some comments on "real life" rather than historical statistics: Most people who are not self employed have some kind of "pension" that will become available no matter how irresponsibly they have invested their savings or non-savings. E.g. SS and/or equity in their homes, Emergency Fund, Cash, ...

TomCat96

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boj-start-lending-etf-shares-prevent-market-freeze .... Now you're telling me their central bank owns 80% of the Japanese index? .... Imagine for a second if the federal reserve owned 80% of S&P 500. From your link: With its ETF holdings of 28.9 trillion yen ($266 ...

TomCat96

It's one reason why I specifically invest in midcaps and small-caps. I am 100% stock. zero large cap exposure. Ask me in 30 years how it went. If what the advisor says is true, there is no reason to believe that it won't go well. In other words, if there NEVER has been a rolling 20-year period wher...

TomCat96

Really glad I'm not the only one concerned about this. So far I've only invested into US stock/bond market index funds because Vanguard's international stock market fund includes China. Would be interested in buying into international stock market index funds that include countries like Japan, UK, ...

TomCat96

sounds like you already know what it is you need to do. Your magic number is 105050 with a standard deduction of 24,800. Keeping your taxable income before that will keep you within the 10% bracket. HSA, FSA, and health insurance premiums are considered non-income. The next tier is your fica taxes. ...

TomCat96

I live in Northern California but I'm not directly affected by the fires or the power outages. We happen to live in an area that isn't at risk, right near San Francisco. A couple that we are good friends with have a newborn baby and live in an area where the power was shut off. It gets too cold at ...

TomCat96

A good friend has had the same financial advisor/CFP for almost 20 years. Apparently, he sold his business and is retiring soon. My friend is pretty unhappy because she's approaching retirement, really likes him and isn't too fond of his new associates. She is considering other options . . . she as...

TomCat96

I'm 100% equities. I currently see no need for bonds. Age, late 30s. Being 100% equities means greater risk, but greater rewards. The greater risk to you is not just increased volatility, but also the possibility that you will be forced to liquidate at inopportune times during a downturn. The size o...

TomCat96

Can there be a "significant" recession today that doesn't turn into a systemic crisis? Let's not entertain something that requires carefully scrutiny two years later just to identify. Is it still possible to have a "real" recession without a systemic crisis? In a "real" recession, won't there be de...

TomCat96

After doing quite a lot of research, I’ve decided to stop using low-cost index funds and switch to a separately managed account. This goes against the Bogleheads investment philosophy and it took me a long time to admit it was the right thing to do for me as I was genuinely convinced and passionate...

TomCat96

Fill in the ???? For me, the story goes like this... An "innocuous" spike in the repo rate causes the FED to change direction. Instead of raising rates and decreasing the balance sheet, they continue lowering rates and increasing the balance sheet . Once the "spike" is beaten back, they announce th...

TomCat96

In case anyone is wondering, I am in freakout mode. I cruised through 2000 and 2008. I haven't even noticed anything since then except the December dip, which I was fine with as it just seemed like an equity event (I budget a minimum 50% down move in equities at any time for any reason). This is st...

TomCat96

Same as always. Keeping buying. Ignore the noise.

TomCat96

Just wanted to add a little bit of clarity to my post because at a glance it probably doesn't seem all that useful mathematically. My father at age 55 sold during the dot com bust, obtaining a 200k long term capital loss. It would take him therefore 67 years to deduct all these losses, an undesirab...

TomCat96

The EMH is definitely not absolute. In fact, let's be strict about it. The EMH is outright false. There is no such thing as a truly efficient market. We live in a world of finite limitations. If the daily market volume is 1T, then it stands to reason that one with 1T of capital can manipulate such m...

TomCat96

Just wanted to add a little bit of clarity to my post because at a glance it probably doesn't seem all that useful mathematically. My father at age 55 sold during the dot com bust, obtaining a 200k long term capital loss. It would take him therefore 67 years to deduct all these losses, an undesirabl...

TomCat96

Hello all. I have some rather large capital loss carry forwards from years past to use up over my future savings years. Are there any particular changes in approach to investing or allocation one would take to use this up or to take advantage of potential greater returns? Perhaps more aggressive in...

TomCat96

To the OP: What is your opinion on this video Adam Ruins Everything - How the Fine Art Market is a Scam | truTV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dw5kme5Q_Yo I wrote to you in generalities before. But now let's get more specific, more concrete. Are you aware of whether or not the fine art world is a p...

TomCat96

I love when articles talk about how much money someone made for selling a painting but never compare it to a more diversified portfolio or diversified market. Like this article about Oprah Winfrey's selling a Klimt in 2017: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-08/oprah-said-to-snag-150-m...

TomCat96

[trimmed because I don't like very long posts with shorter replies] Seriously. What is the generally accepted accounting principle rule for discounting a lie? What is the book value of a lie? Do i list it under assets, liabilities? Does it matter that I can move one to the other because I'm fabrica...

TomCat96

If you then remove the ability of the market to efficiently price in information, you cannot then go around and say that the market has already priced it in. The market does not price in information it does not have. It does not know which companies have misstated finances and by how much. However,...

TomCat96

The Bogleheads view of holding a diversified portfolio has worked wonders for me over the last decade. One of these positions is BNDX, Vanguard's international bond fund. The current yield is 0.34% for a 10 year duration exposure. Given the negative bond yields across Europe and Japan, I could very...

TomCat96

I have a question for HomerJ, and those advocating for CAPE10. So right now, I'm at 100% stocks and am holding for the long term. It's nice, but it's alot of heartache sometimes and alot of sitting around doing nothing. Can I get a better return by getting out of the market or moving into bonds when...

TomCat96

It's important to distinguish among the disparate AI techniques out there. As a hobby of mine, I like to tinker with OpenAI gym and manipulate some of the algorithms for these game bots. This particular field of AI is called reinforcement learning as oppose to say your typical linear classifiers, LS...

TomCat96

I'm not in a position to be arguing if they are shilling or not. I feel more comfortable picking apart the reasoning. And as it stands, the reasoning doesn't make much sense, as it's lots of unsupported sensationalist...sentences. "The core premise of every 60/40 portfolio is that bonds can hedge ag...

TomCat96

So if we look at world stock index like VT which also holds Asia stocks - isn't it a huge risk that Chinese stock data is pretty much fabricated? We already know that China is extremely shady with data they provide and most of it is probably fabricated and inflated. So if you invest in total stock ...

TomCat96

Hi Bogleheads, Recently I've been researching non-traditional ways to diversify my investments and came to the realization that artwork can be a lucrative physical asset. Not only that, but the aesthetic and historical value it offers offsets the opportunity cost of not investing in a more traditio...

TomCat96

It seems that investing domestic only or globally each requires a prediction of future returns. +1 I am ok with this rationale. One of my arguments in the International and US debate has been to cut away at some assumptions and deference given to the International side. Here is the following defere...

TomCat96

When is that argument not applicable? Is it completely agnostic to performance? Diversification and expected return are, indeed, unrelated considerations. Both are important, but they aren’t the same. So a complete rejection of international stocks requires a strong belief that you can accurately p...

TomCat96

Vanguard shows that global equity (60 US/40 INTL) rather than US only equity has reduced volatility without decreasing returns in the period 1971- 2018. Certainly there is no question that over the past 10 years US only has hugely outperformed by a wide margin but clearly Vanguard does not expect t...

TomCat96

I need more than a broad theoretical allegation. I need a rationale that is falsifiable. At the end of the day, you either grasp the concept of diversification or you don’t. If you do, you’ve got all the evidence you need to realize that a global equity portfolio is not diversified than an US-only ...

TomCat96

I need more than a broad theoretical allegation. I need a rationale that is falsifiable. At the end of the day, you either grasp the concept of diversification or you don’t. If you do, you’ve got all the evidence you need to realize that a global equity portfolio is not diversified than an US-only ...

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