Search found 782 matches
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are Monopolies efficient?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 480
Re: Are Monopolies efficient?
Your question makes no sense. Define efficiency. Is the price of oil set by a cartel efficient? Are prices set by a monopoly efficient? (I am including Oligopoly and Cartels in the definition of Monopoly) The price of oil is set by supply and demand. What does a cartel pricing mean then?
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
- Replies: 38
- Views: 2921
Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
How does the market *accurately* price in that their extraction, processing or distribution facilities might (as happened in the last six weeks) or might not be militarily attacked? Intellectually honest people know that the answer to the above is “It can’t.” If accurate price discovery isn’t a con...
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are Monopolies efficient?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 480
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are Monopolies efficient?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 480
Are Monopolies efficient?
Are monopolies efficient?
Suppose we have a cartel, that cartel sets the price of oil. Is that price efficient?
Suppose we have a cartel, that cartel sets the price of oil. Is that price efficient?
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
- Replies: 38
- Views: 2921
Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Let me ask you another question.
Is a monopoly efficient?
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
- Replies: 38
- Views: 2921
Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Whoever holds an international index fund "will participate". So what ? It seems like you know something others don't and Aramco's actual value is in fact a lot lower than what the market estimates presently. Red flag number #1. Do I dare know something the market does not? Let's talk about this id...
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:47 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
- Replies: 38
- Views: 2921
Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Saudi Aramco is set to go IPO, with valuations going anywhere from 1.2 Trillion to 2 Trillion. Will you be participating in this IPO? At the end of 2018, the total world stock market capitalization stood at 40.6 trillion, with the United States occupying 54.4% of that. The remainder Ex-US was at 45....
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
"who are not prone to panic" is an enormous assumtion. That young, new investor (who has not been through a stock market crash with significant money invested) cannot possibly know if that assumption will hold. I put in this in the category of reaching into the subjective state of the other individ...
- Tue Nov 05, 2019 4:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
I don't. I only think bonds are for people who lay awake worrying about market corrections. I view them as opportunities to deploy whatever cash I might have waiting. [ u]I am also going to be adding at least another $500k to my portfolio in the next few years [/u]s o I am hoping for a few years of...
- Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:37 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1491
Re: How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
It doesn't taste off so much as bland. Like red wine, but blander than usual. You may have accidentally grabbed a bottle of merlot. I’d just drink it and be more careful next time. Incidentally, both bottles of the bland questionable wine are merlots, one from 2014, the other from 2016. The cab ver...
- Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:34 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1491
Re: How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
leaving it sit exposing it to air did reduce the nail polish smell.
It doesn't taste off so much as bland. Like red wine, but blander than usual.
It doesn't taste off so much as bland. Like red wine, but blander than usual.
- Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:54 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1491
How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
How can I tell when red wine has gone bad?
Tried to google for some answers but couldn't find anything definitive.
Red wine smells a little like nail polish remover, but otherwise color seems fine (no browning)
Taste is a little bland, but doesn't seem to taste off.
Tried to google for some answers but couldn't find anything definitive.
Red wine smells a little like nail polish remover, but otherwise color seems fine (no browning)
Taste is a little bland, but doesn't seem to taste off.
- Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:43 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
- Replies: 92
- Views: 5690
Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
I would be interested in such a guide.
- Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
- Replies: 79
- Views: 12513
Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
After clicking on Mel's OP link and going to an arbitrary page, I realized that the thread is pretty old. That said, a couple of days ago, I was updating my investments spreadsheet and noticed that for the year ending 09/30/2019, extended market has been outperformed by S&P500. Doesn't that essenti...
- Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
- Replies: 79
- Views: 12513
Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
I noticed in the other thread that Tomcat holds "Completion index" without the SP500. Indeed I do. And as per the issue of whether or not the completion index is a proxy for midcaps, no I don't believe it is. You're getting a lot of other exposure to small caps in there, and yes as mentioned a few ...
- Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Ive been doing some research and have had some discussions with some friends who are more investment-savvy than myself, about bonds. One of my friends said that you should always have some bonds no matter how risk tolerant one may be. Another friend said the same thing, that it doesnt make much sen...
- Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
- Replies: 153
- Views: 12868
Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
No you will not be ok. You will be reduced to eating beans, and I'm not even sure you can afford that. At 4.26M, your average income from parking your money in riskfree treasuries exceeds the annual income of the average American. Your savings exceeds the average couple your age, by 387 times. What ...
- Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:45 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Mathematically, 100% equities is likely to be optimal if you are a long way from retirement. However, I recommend only 80% equities until you have been through a bear market with a stock-heavy portfolio, so that you actually know your risk tolerance. Many investors pulled out of the stock market in...
- Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Just some comments on "real life" rather than historical statistics: Most people who are not self employed have some kind of "pension" that will become available no matter how irresponsibly they have invested their savings or non-savings. E.g. SS and/or equity in their homes, Emergency Fund, Cash, ...
- Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boj-start-lending-etf-shares-prevent-market-freeze .... Now you're telling me their central bank owns 80% of the Japanese index? .... Imagine for a second if the federal reserve owned 80% of S&P 500. From your link: With its ETF holdings of 28.9 trillion yen ($266 ...
- Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:22 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
- Replies: 30
- Views: 4695
Re: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
It's one reason why I specifically invest in midcaps and small-caps. I am 100% stock. zero large cap exposure. Ask me in 30 years how it went. If what the advisor says is true, there is no reason to believe that it won't go well. In other words, if there NEVER has been a rolling 20-year period wher...
- Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Really glad I'm not the only one concerned about this. So far I've only invested into US stock/bond market index funds because Vanguard's international stock market fund includes China. Would be interested in buying into international stock market index funds that include countries like Japan, UK, ...
- Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How much income to stay in the 12% bracket for 2020?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1939
Re: How much income to stay in the 12% bracket for 2020?
sounds like you already know what it is you need to do. Your magic number is 105050 with a standard deduction of 24,800. Keeping your taxable income before that will keep you within the 10% bracket. HSA, FSA, and health insurance premiums are considered non-income. The next tier is your fica taxes. ...
- Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: California Fires: Landlord/Tenant Question
- Replies: 71
- Views: 4195
Re: California Fires: Landlord/Tenant Question
I live in Northern California but I'm not directly affected by the fires or the power outages. We happen to live in an area that isn't at risk, right near San Francisco. A couple that we are good friends with have a newborn baby and live in an area where the power was shut off. It gets too cold at ...
- Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
- Replies: 30
- Views: 4695
Re: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
A good friend has had the same financial advisor/CFP for almost 20 years. Apparently, he sold his business and is retiring soon. My friend is pretty unhappy because she's approaching retirement, really likes him and isn't too fond of his new associates. She is considering other options . . . she as...
- Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
- Replies: 367
- Views: 22558
Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
I'm 100% equities. I currently see no need for bonds. Age, late 30s. Being 100% equities means greater risk, but greater rewards. The greater risk to you is not just increased volatility, but also the possibility that you will be forced to liquidate at inopportune times during a downturn. The size o...
- Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
- Replies: 137
- Views: 13201
Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Can there be a "significant" recession today that doesn't turn into a systemic crisis? Let's not entertain something that requires carefully scrutiny two years later just to identify. Is it still possible to have a "real" recession without a systemic crisis? In a "real" recession, won't there be de...
- Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I’m done with index funds
- Replies: 229
- Views: 28151
Re: I’m done with index funds
After doing quite a lot of research, I’ve decided to stop using low-cost index funds and switch to a separately managed account. This goes against the Bogleheads investment philosophy and it took me a long time to admit it was the right thing to do for me as I was genuinely convinced and passionate...
- Sun Oct 27, 2019 4:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
- Replies: 137
- Views: 13201
Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Fill in the ???? For me, the story goes like this... An "innocuous" spike in the repo rate causes the FED to change direction. Instead of raising rates and decreasing the balance sheet, they continue lowering rates and increasing the balance sheet . Once the "spike" is beaten back, they announce th...
- Sat Oct 26, 2019 2:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
- Replies: 137
- Views: 13201
Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
In case anyone is wondering, I am in freakout mode. I cruised through 2000 and 2008. I haven't even noticed anything since then except the December dip, which I was fine with as it just seemed like an equity event (I budget a minimum 50% down move in equities at any time for any reason). This is st...
- Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Replies: 2104
- Views: 220479
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Same as always. Keeping buying. Ignore the noise.
- Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
- Replies: 6
- Views: 518
Re: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
Just wanted to add a little bit of clarity to my post because at a glance it probably doesn't seem all that useful mathematically. My father at age 55 sold during the dot com bust, obtaining a 200k long term capital loss. It would take him therefore 67 years to deduct all these losses, an undesirab...
- Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
The EMH is definitely not absolute. In fact, let's be strict about it. The EMH is outright false. There is no such thing as a truly efficient market. We live in a world of finite limitations. If the daily market volume is 1T, then it stands to reason that one with 1T of capital can manipulate such m...
- Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
- Replies: 6
- Views: 518
Re: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
Just wanted to add a little bit of clarity to my post because at a glance it probably doesn't seem all that useful mathematically. My father at age 55 sold during the dot com bust, obtaining a 200k long term capital loss. It would take him therefore 67 years to deduct all these losses, an undesirabl...
- Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:39 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
- Replies: 6
- Views: 518
Re: Impact of Capital Loss Carry Forward on Investing Approach
Hello all. I have some rather large capital loss carry forwards from years past to use up over my future savings years. Are there any particular changes in approach to investing or allocation one would take to use this up or to take advantage of potential greater returns? Perhaps more aggressive in...
- Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:36 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Fine Art Investments
- Replies: 77
- Views: 4392
Re: Fine Art Investments
To the OP: What is your opinion on this video Adam Ruins Everything - How the Fine Art Market is a Scam | truTV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dw5kme5Q_Yo I wrote to you in generalities before. But now let's get more specific, more concrete. Are you aware of whether or not the fine art world is a p...
- Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:32 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Fine Art Investments
- Replies: 77
- Views: 4392
Re: Fine Art Investments
I love when articles talk about how much money someone made for selling a painting but never compare it to a more diversified portfolio or diversified market. Like this article about Oprah Winfrey's selling a Klimt in 2017: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-08/oprah-said-to-snag-150-m...
- Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
[trimmed because I don't like very long posts with shorter replies] Seriously. What is the generally accepted accounting principle rule for discounting a lie? What is the book value of a lie? Do i list it under assets, liabilities? Does it matter that I can move one to the other because I'm fabrica...
- Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:15 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
If you then remove the ability of the market to efficiently price in information, you cannot then go around and say that the market has already priced it in. The market does not price in information it does not have. It does not know which companies have misstated finances and by how much. However,...
- Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?
- Replies: 38
- Views: 3462
Re: Is avoiding negative bond yields market timing?
The Bogleheads view of holding a diversified portfolio has worked wonders for me over the last decade. One of these positions is BNDX, Vanguard's international bond fund. The current yield is 0.34% for a 10 year duration exposure. Given the negative bond yields across Europe and Japan, I could very...
- Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
- Replies: 187
- Views: 20133
Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
I have a question for HomerJ, and those advocating for CAPE10. So right now, I'm at 100% stocks and am holding for the long term. It's nice, but it's alot of heartache sometimes and alot of sitting around doing nothing. Can I get a better return by getting out of the market or moving into bonds when...
- Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Artificial Intelligence and the stock market
- Replies: 65
- Views: 6733
Re: Artificial Intelligence and the stock market
It's important to distinguish among the disparate AI techniques out there. As a hobby of mine, I like to tinker with OpenAI gym and manipulate some of the algorithms for these game bots. This particular field of AI is called reinforcement learning as oppose to say your typical linear classifiers, LS...
- Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
- Replies: 88
- Views: 15403
Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
I'm not in a position to be arguing if they are shilling or not. I feel more comfortable picking apart the reasoning. And as it stands, the reasoning doesn't make much sense, as it's lots of unsupported sensationalist...sentences. "The core premise of every 60/40 portfolio is that bonds can hedge ag...
- Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
- Replies: 133
- Views: 12361
Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
So if we look at world stock index like VT which also holds Asia stocks - isn't it a huge risk that Chinese stock data is pretty much fabricated? We already know that China is extremely shady with data they provide and most of it is probably fabricated and inflated. So if you invest in total stock ...
- Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Fine Art Investments
- Replies: 77
- Views: 4392
Re: Fine Art Investments
Hi Bogleheads, Recently I've been researching non-traditional ways to diversify my investments and came to the realization that artwork can be a lucrative physical asset. Not only that, but the aesthetic and historical value it offers offsets the opportunity cost of not investing in a more traditio...
- Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
- Replies: 160
- Views: 12486
Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
It seems that investing domestic only or globally each requires a prediction of future returns. +1 I am ok with this rationale. One of my arguments in the International and US debate has been to cut away at some assumptions and deference given to the International side. Here is the following defere...
- Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
- Replies: 160
- Views: 12486
Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
When is that argument not applicable? Is it completely agnostic to performance? Diversification and expected return are, indeed, unrelated considerations. Both are important, but they aren’t the same. So a complete rejection of international stocks requires a strong belief that you can accurately p...
- Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
- Replies: 160
- Views: 12486
Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Vanguard shows that global equity (60 US/40 INTL) rather than US only equity has reduced volatility without decreasing returns in the period 1971- 2018. Certainly there is no question that over the past 10 years US only has hugely outperformed by a wide margin but clearly Vanguard does not expect t...
- Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
- Replies: 160
- Views: 12486
Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
I need more than a broad theoretical allegation. I need a rationale that is falsifiable. At the end of the day, you either grasp the concept of diversification or you don’t. If you do, you’ve got all the evidence you need to realize that a global equity portfolio is not diversified than an US-only ...
- Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
- Replies: 160
- Views: 12486
Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
I need more than a broad theoretical allegation. I need a rationale that is falsifiable. At the end of the day, you either grasp the concept of diversification or you don’t. If you do, you’ve got all the evidence you need to realize that a global equity portfolio is not diversified than an US-only ...