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TomCat96

In a discussion yesterday where I was trying to articulate my thoughts on EMH, I wrote that since EMH cannot be tested because it has no predictive power (due to the joint hypothesis problem - meaning that you will never kown whether it's EMH that is false, or the asset pricing model used that is f...

TomCat96

Here's the reason Mark Hulbert says that international diversification isn't all it's supposed to be on paper. I guess we're left with the "what if the U.S. is the next Japan?" argument. The problem is that the correlation between domestic and international stocks is not constant. It instead shifts...

TomCat96

1) The observation that diversification fails in crises is basically just another way of saying "financial crises happen." If it only affected one asset class and not others, it wouldn't be a crisis. 2) "The problem is that the correlation between domestic and international stocks is not constant."...

TomCat96

This is a completely non responsive post. But did anyone notice that the OP used three exclamation points. I hate the exclamation point. Using one is usually overkill. Should be rule on this forum never to use more than one, and even if use one you are on double secret probation. Just my off topic ...

TomCat96

Hello everyone, Nice to meet you all I am a beginner. This forum seems a bit advanced for me, but I’m a fast learner and I have found when I’m with people that are smarter then me I learn much faster. Do you need an MBA from Harvard to get mega-rich? Those are the men and women that work on Wall St...

TomCat96

Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die in euphoria. Of all the folksy wisdom that relates to markets, that quip above has been for me one that's consistent. Whether it was the tech boom of the 90s, the real estate boom of the mid 2000s, or the cryptocur...

TomCat96

Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die in euphoria. Of all the folksy wisdom that relates to markets, that quip above has been for me one that's consistent. Whether it was the tech boom of the 90s, the real estate boom of the mid 2000s, or the cryptocurr...

TomCat96

Warren Buffett claims that when you are long term holder of stock you are happy to see it go down in value cause can buy more cheaper. I like Warren and I like Tesla, a great American company, this is a good buying opportunity in the making, though I am patient to wait for further dips. Last time b...

TomCat96

TSLA opened today essentially unchanged from it's after hours price. Efficiency of markets is one of those things I think is poorly understood on this website. You have a pretty nice example from last night. TSLA opens at $312.70 a share yesterday 9:30AM TSLA closes at $307.52 a share at 4:00 PM. re...

TomCat96

Plus it's not a constituent of Vanguard TSM, for example. How much will this affect TSM? Page 6: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/VTSMX/portfolio-holdings It looks like you could lose as much as 0.13% on TSM if Tesla collapses. Why is it not a constituent of Vanguard's T...

TomCat96

According to the prospectus of VTSMX, as of 6/30/2018, Vanguard held about ~1092 million dollars of Tesla stock. Total holdings for the same period was 701,184M which would imply 1.092/701.1 = .0015 meaning if tesla goes bankrupt, you stand to lose about a $1.55 for every 1000 dollars you have in VT...

TomCat96

Not surprised, but will the SEC suit really affect Tesla that much? First of all, it is specifically against Mr. Musk, and Tesla so far is not a defendent of this or a related case: https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2018/comp-pr2018-219.pdf Secondly, unless the investigation has turned up m...

TomCat96

I think from a theoretical perspective, there's a point about risk worth noting. Musk has a reputation of being a visionary. I would say Musk is more the face of Tesla than other CEOs the face of their companies. That means that investing in TSLA comes with assuming a large degree of concentrated ri...

TomCat96

CNBC article NYT article TSLA dropped 11.9% in after hours. I like to think of this as a bit of a cautionary tale. Here are some past boglehead threads considering investing in Tesla, no doubt due in part to the hype of FOMO. Is Buying 50k worth of TSLA advisable? Invest in Tesla? Tesla, the next b...

TomCat96

Too many variables. Simplify your problem. You seem to know how to go about it. In this simple example, the optimal decision is clearly to swap. But how should the algorithm calculate the precise benefit of this choice? The benefit of avoiding the dividend now is the compound growth you could earn o...

TomCat96

You have 1.4M in stocks and bonds? Pay it off. No brainer. >5 Our cash position is arguably too large. We want to invest it conservatively and likely would not invest it in anything other than short term risk free instruments. I reiterate, your best bang for the buck is going to be a riskless mortga...

TomCat96

I have a friend who is a huge believer in putting everything in SPY - (one of the most popular S&P 500 ETF’s) When I say he puts everything in - I mean every spare penny he has . He does not believe in having any liquid savings on hand aside from whatever cash is necessary to pay the bills each mon...

TomCat96

I told a former colleague I used the BH forums and his response was “Yeah, they don’t like our tribe.” What he meant was we believed in taking risk. He built and sold a company: I had 80% of my NW tied to my company stock for more than 15 years. Both of us had borrowed heavily at times to maximize ...

TomCat96

So perhaps the better argument is to say when WOULD I invest in international. I would invest in international when those internal barriers are gone, when the international zone is a monolithic entity, and when International starts posting 10% a year CAGR nominal. This is an incredibly odd way of l...

TomCat96

If we regard this question of the past 30 years as significant (which I don't), then by the end of the 80s, after 30 years of underperformance, we should have inferred that the US was totally going down the drain. Which would have been plain wrong. Which definitely convinces me that the question is...

TomCat96

For those that argue for 0% ex-U.S., would your opinion change if you knew that international would outperform the United States by 5% per annum for the next decade? Mine would. Absolutely. Let's take a look at the differences between the US and International for a moment. United States, Unified ma...

TomCat96

Why not 100% small value? Extended market has underperformed that. What about NFLX? If it was this easy don’t you think the pros would follow you? Has it? 60/40 stock bonds is pretty safe. But what if we have time, and both willingness and ability to take risk, how can we leverage that to go for gr...

TomCat96

Thank you everyone for the continued responses. It will take time for me to evaluate this information carefully, as some of you have posted large pdf files or links. They will make for some interesting reading. But let me just say that ultimately I am very glad this claim is being examined. Australi...

TomCat96

To the mathematicians, engineers, data scientists, and those familiar with Machine Learning, I've been trying to understand some of the latest developments in AI, and in particular machine learning/deep learning. I've been following a few tutorials on keras and tensorflow,(the typical MNIST classifi...

TomCat96

So a few years back, you were virtually all-in with Treasuries. Now you're all-in with US small/mid-caps. I don't know how long you stayed with the older portfolio, but I imagine it lagged the market. Now you're all stock at even higher valuations. I really think you could benefit from picking and ...

TomCat96

I did a quick scan back through your posting history and found this in another thread: 34 years old and currently 90% treasuries, 10% equities. I'm just waiting to jump back in. I agree with the other side however. This drop has been nothing. It's barely a correction, and stocks are still too high ...

TomCat96

And before anyone accuses me of cherry picking, that point is relevant to me. Not only am I 100% US stocks at the moment, I am 100% invested in VXF, the Vanguard Extended Market. You are probably trolling us, but I have to ask, what rationale do you have to completely avoid US large-caps? Not troll...

TomCat96

I want to thank everyone here for the replies. They are quite illuminating. But in a sense, also disappointing. One reason I don't invest in international stocks, is because VXUS, and its variants have underperformed for too long for too long. At this point 22 years. Being situated in the United Sta...

TomCat96

And before anyone accuses me of cherry picking, that point is relevant to me. Not only am I 100% US stocks at the moment, I am 100% invested in VXF, the Vanguard Extended Market. You are probably trolling us, but I have to ask, what rationale do you have to completely avoid US large-caps? Not troll...

TomCat96

I consider investments in isolation. They are your ingredients. Your portfolio is your dish. With tools like portfolio visualizer, it is a simple matter to check to see if a particular type of investment would benefit your portfolio. If I were to find an ingredient which would correlate negatively w...

TomCat96

One question that keeps bugging me - is the equity risk premium (ERP) higher when investing from a low-interest rate country/currency? In Europe, the equivalent of risk-free bonds (i.e. treasury bonds) are German government bonds (aka "bunds"). 2-year German bonds (the shortest duration available o...

TomCat96

To me volatility drag isn't really a thing because it amounts to comparing an actual return to a hypothetical return that is based on an arithmetic error--taking the arithmetic average of a sequence of geometric returns then applying it geometrically. In other words, the arithmetic mean of a series...

TomCat96

Since this is an investing website, let me share something interesting I found in my quest for source material to improve my math skills. Numberphile is a 'fun' (as opposed to one dedicated to teaching) math channel, featuring various math related topics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjVDqfUhXOY ...

TomCat96

I'm surprised I haven't seen an article on this before. For fun today, I was playing around with Excel and morningstar.com to look at year-to-year returns. (I use morningstar because it includes dividends) Over the last 18 years, Total Bond Market has returned about 4.5% nominal. Over the last 18 y...

TomCat96

I wanted to update this thread on the results of my efforts I have been trying to re-learn the mathematics of my engineering years and in fact grow beyond them. It's been a challenging, but highly rewarding journey. Learning math now is completely different from learning math in undergraduate. I hav...

TomCat96

I have to say I find it funny so many of these posts and stories mention well known speed traps, going to the office, and even avoiding the area. If these speed traps are so well known, why are you, or relatives getting tickets there and why avoid the area?? :confused :wink: In my case, I was new t...

TomCat96

What do you get from said lawyer? 1. Opportunity to remove the criminality of the reckless. 2. Chance to reduce fine. Go with Nichols & Green. They were excellent. Very professional, extremely experienced in these matters. Ask for Garrett. I'm guessing either you are Garrett, or have been through t...

TomCat96

Bogleheads, Today morning while going to office I got a speeding ticket (46) on speed limit of 25. Speed limit suddenly changes at that place and I was in previous speed flow. It says to go to court. Internet seem to say scary things about reckless driving. I talked to some attorneys and they are c...

TomCat96

Bogleheads, Today morning while going to office I got a speeding ticket (46) on speed limit of 25. Speed limit suddenly changes at that place and I was in previous speed flow. It says to go to court. Internet seem to say scary things about reckless driving. I talked to some attorneys and they are c...

TomCat96

I repeat. I want to use the data on the exact index used to achieve the performance for the claim that Australia has outperformed the US for the past 118 years. My goal is not to pick a general Australian index fund and invest in that. That's not the basis for the claim. I want to crack open the mys...

TomCat96

I want to invest in Australia, per the repeated claim, that the Australian stock market has outperformed the US market since 1900. I don't want to invest in some random Australian ETF that started in 2002 and has underperformed the US indices. Somewhere, somehow, on this site, there is the repeated ...

TomCat96

There has been a claim, not the first I have heard on this site, that Australia securities have grown faster than US securities since 1900. I follow the data. I don't follow feelings. I don't follow schools of thought. I don't believe in International vs US. I don't care. I'm here to make money. How...

TomCat96

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks over the period from 1900 to present. That's much longer term than a mere 30 years! Since including US stocks would have dragged down returns compared to an all-Australia portfolio, why are we still considering investing in the US when the ...

TomCat96

Hey all- Sorry if this has been discussed before or is not a good question- But my question here is does investing in an index fund in any way shape or form affect stock valuations? So if I drop say 50-100k in an index fund will this have any affect on stock prices for the day? In contrast, if I se...

TomCat96

0% international here. By international, I mean ex-US. Let's talk VGTSX. Straight from Vanguard's own website, growth rate, 4.84% compounded since inception, 4/29/1996. The year is 2018. 22 years. I've said it before and I'll say it again. That is too long a period for such a low growth rate. If you...

TomCat96

There's going to be disagreement as to what constitutes a bull and bear market. But I think the point that piques the general sentiment is that it feels like we've gone awhile without a major crash. Twenty percent drops are not particularly dramatic events if they occur over long periods. This is es...

TomCat96

Hi there! Is there a better way to put your money besides investing in index funds? What alternative investment method would yield a higher return over the long term with underlying value? The only investments that routinely beat the stock market are investments of a personal nature which include: ...

TomCat96

Count me among those who think Musk did this to go after the short positions. There's a war between the shorts and Musk in a manner that I never seen with any other company. I'm not at all surprised that TSLA is the most shorted company in history. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to think the...

TomCat96

Apologize in advance as it is a bit of a rant....everyone is talking about how valuable SPG rewards are (i.e. 2.7 cent per point). But when I try to redeem my 30K points, I feel that all the planets have to align before I find a hotel that I want. My first issue is with the "value" of the rewards. ...

TomCat96

What is irking me and I think others is that you're implying everyone that give advice other than yours is wrong. Advice given for free on the internet and AA is very personal and there is no one way to do it for everyone. You're coming across like you're the advice police, and that's not cool. Are...

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