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Cantrip

Per the methodology guide, the CRSP indexes do not include SPACS. See http://www.crsp.org/files/Equity-Indexes-Methodology-Guide_0.pdf SPCE is not currently in the US Small Cap Value Index. Per methodology, with no growth or return on assets, it was not a growth stock. With no earnings, dividends, o...

Cantrip

Current profitability is not the only way to value a company. There are many companies, especially in the small cap space, that have been affected by COVID and are currently unprofitable. Banks are making less money due to interest spread compression. Oil companies are losing money due to low oil pr...

Cantrip

William Bernstein himself answered your question 6 years ago in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=141609&p=2098154&h ... e#p2098154

In summary he suggested the Vanguard Mid Cap Value fund instead of the Large Value fund.

Cantrip

What do you get from EBond Ladder/Ibonds? It looks like almost nothing. I was looking at Marcus no-penalty CD for 7 months at 0.55%. The Ebond if held for 20 years has a low 3.5% return but its better than current alternatives for bonds. It also acts as an emergency fund during the first few years ...

Cantrip

[/quote] Do you re-balance it yearly? Do you keep anything in bonds? Where do you keep Emergency Funds? In general. Paul is advocating for value funds. Why not growth? Thanks [/quote] Rebalance yearly on my birthday (though every two years would be more ideal to allow for momentum). I'm 40 years old...

Cantrip

In regards to SVAL and equal weighting: There is an equal weight s&p 600 fund called EWSC which has been around since 2011. From 2011 to 2020 it has had a 5 factor alpha of -2.6%/year vs +1.2%/year for IJR (s&p 600 small cap) and +1.1% year for IWC (microcap index). There may be a possible d...

Cantrip

Paul Merriman, Larry Swedroe, and Rick Ferri will be together to talk about investing next week on October 7th at 7:30cst. It is free and the link is: https://www.choosefi.com/events/money-talks-all-about-investing-with-rick-ferri-paul-merriman-larry-swedroe-and-jennifer-mah/ . Respond on this threa...

Cantrip

I was looking at a period where SCV did well, 2001-2005 on PortfolioVisualiser. Something that surprised me: CAGR 2001-2005 67% IJS, 33% VTSMX: 8.6% 38% DFSVX, 62% VTSMX: 8.6% https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear...

Cantrip

Very interesting take on where the value premium actually comes from, why large-value stopped working in the early 80's and why small-value stopped working more recently; value is really just short volatility. Curious other value-heads thoughts on this. They are obviously selling a unique product t...

Cantrip

Avantis isn't that much more expensive than Vanguard. The small ER difference doesn't explain the large QDI difference. Sorry for responding before looking at your link from Avantis: QDI for AVDV is 85% but is only 35% for AVDVX (the mutual fund version of the same ETF)! I speculatively wonder if A...

Cantrip

Avantis has a really nice QDI page that they post: https://www.avantisinvestors.com/content/avantis/en/resources/tax-center/qualified-dividend-income.html Makes me think that although these aren't specifically tax managed that they still make decisions with tax implications in mind. Only ETF that h...

Cantrip

Would a 27-year forward test be construed as an out-of-sample failure of the F-F 3-factor model? No, because the FF 3-factor model makes no predictions for performance of the factors. This is not quite correct. The expected value of a risk premium is positive. How long of a test do we need to get a...

Cantrip

Futures are 1+% up and the coronavirus crisis is getting worse. Does it make sense? What is the market thinking? Another proof that B&H is the only way. Does anyone care to comment? This weekend Warren Buffet made his first purchase since the pandemic started. I think this will coax some skitti...

Cantrip

Excepting small, I don't tilt to any factors internationally as the funds have higher costs and negative tracking error. The way I see it, any premium for value should come with higher risk, and I am not willing to pay higher expense ratios to take more risk. If vanguard made an international value ...

Cantrip

This is US LCB, US SCV, Int LCV, Int SCB. It maintains UBH 50/50 weighting of US and international. Anyone know if Merriman has compared this Simplified UB&H (from Trev H) to his domestic-only 4 fund combo? Would be very curious to know how this SUB&H allocation holds up using his long rang...

Cantrip

See prior threads. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=295760 I created an account on their site as I thought about buying some shares of farmland. Several things have stopped me from buying. Low yields: 3.3% - 0.5% acretrader fee - 0.5%+ fancy IRA fee (as there will be capital gains ye...

Cantrip

I used a Paul Merriman portfolio initially, but (as livesoft suggests) ended up changing to the TrevH 4 fund less than a year later as it tracks the Merriman well with lower cost and simplicity. A vanguard retirement fund is highly likely to be your best choice. All in VTSAX is the lowest cost and m...

Cantrip

What about the shift of women from home to the workplace? Surely that would have increased GDP in the past (and can't now).

Cantrip

The next meeting is cancelled due to coronavirus. As I will be moving to Texarkana in a few months, and our group has remained small, we will be dissolving the Little Rock chapter. If you would like to meet up or chat, send a me a PM.

Cantrip

Anyone know off-hand what are the size and value factor loadings for the Vg small value fund? Thank you The CRSP SCV index from 7/2001 to 7/2019 has the following factor loads (beta ~1): 3 factor: 0.56 smb, 0.43 hml, +1.73 yearly alpha 4 factor: 0.56 smb, 0.42 hml, -0.03 mom 5 factor: 0.61 smb, 0.2...

Cantrip

What is everyone's choice for US SCV? I am between IJS and AVUV Interestingly there is only 25% fund overlap between the 2 Both of those are good choices. VBR while less pure, is also a good choice and my preference. As it covers a larger section of the market it has twice the number of stocks, and...

Cantrip

There are a lot of really weird pricing things going on today with a lot of ETFs. I tax loss harvested VIOV last week. The Bid-Ask spread was 0.6%. Looked at IJS and it was the same. Thought about not doing the tax loss harvest due to this penalty, but instead pre-purchased the vanguard small cap f...

Cantrip

Does anyone have a logical explanation why SCV is doing worse than TSM in this crisis? What stocks do you think are in the small cap value index? Banks which now aren't earning much money with interest rates being cut. Leveraged energy companies which now can't pay their bills. Retail companies whe...

Cantrip

Woah! TMF just crashed outta nowhere. Anybody have an explanation? I feel like I missed some news or something. My brother was in 100% bonds until yesterday (he has been in 100% bonds since he lost everything trading options in 2009). However yesterday when 10 year treasury rates went from 0.5 to 0...

Cantrip

I have a question on expected returns related to convexity. The article linked by the OP has a graph called "Bond Fund Interest Rate Sensitivity, Range of total returns for +/- 1% change in interest rates". The long duration 30 year treasury has some interesting behavior due to convexity. ...

Cantrip

Also despite William Bernstein's talk about how extended US valuations are.... he still has only a 30% international allocation in his own portfolio (I can't quote a source on this, but I vividly remember reading it somewhere).

Cantrip

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vt/portfolio shows the US weighting of equity to be 54%, which is significantly different than the 44% you have quoted above. VT may be missing some Chinese stocks and such -- I'm not sure which number is more accurate. I tilted last year and put 40% instead of ...

Cantrip

When I was 24 (15 years ago) I started investing using a target retirement fund. It was a good choice with both stock and bond diversification. I would move your existing VTSAX into VLXVX (Target Retirement 2065), and put all future ROTH contributions into that fund. This is what I recommend to my f...

Cantrip

Sorry to hear that isotherm. Thanks for letting us know.

Cantrip

Gold does not compound. I also thought gold did not compound until a few days ago. However if real GDP growth > gold supply growth, gold historically gained value in real terms. For instance in the 1800s when gold was money, the median annual deflation was 2%/year. Prices for goods and services wer...

Cantrip

Gold was confiscated in 1933 at $20/oz. It was then revalued in 1934 at $35/oz. Therefore $20/oz would be a low estimate and $35/oz in 1934 would be a high price estimate for gold. If the only thing affecting the gold price is inflation (CPI) a high estimate would be $664 in 2020 dollars. However, c...

Cantrip

willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:43 pm but DFA is still the only provider of an ex-U.S. SCV fund, TMK.

AVDV, avantis international small cap value fund, is an etf with an expense ratio of 36 basis points. I do not know if it does security lending, anyone know?

Cantrip

I'm also curious about how Paul Merriman feels about the newer multi-factor funds such as XSVM, and VFMF, which combine momentum and value. These funds are typically less diversified or have a reduced value load. Is a regular value fund strategy good enough?

Cantrip

Since Paul Merriman believes in factor investing, I would like to know how he evaluates between two etfs with similar factor loads, but differing alphas. For instance Rafi funds claim positive alpha as a reason for investors to pay a higher expense ratio for their funds (about an extra 20bp over wha...

Cantrip

This is a link to the DFA matrix book: http://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/dfa8e2eb-70a8-4830-bbab-2e967cef3871.pdf It depends.... From 1929 through 1934 a recreated S&P 500 compounded at negative 9.7%/year. From 1929 through 1934 a recreated Large Value Index compounded at negative 13.7%...

Cantrip

Next meeting coming up in two weeks: Saturday January 11, 2020 at 8am. Topic will be Asset Allocation. We had covered this topic a couple years ago, but there has been made a request to revisit it. Will be interesting to see if people stayed the course :). Location remains the same at Guillermo's Co...

Cantrip

Understood, but if we believe valuations properly account for the expected future growth of different companies, then what harm occurs when holding them at say equal weight, or fundamental economic weight, or at market-cap weight? Shouldn't they all be valued in such a way to have equal returns, or...

Cantrip

More diversification and lower cost. Switch to the Vanguard 500 fund.

Cantrip

I don't know the answers to your questions but the topic is interesting. ETF.com lists the median premium as 0.22 (range of -0.32 to +0.53) with an average spread of 0.01. So it appears highly liquid, and that on average anyone who buys the fund does pay the 0.25 purchase fee. You could arbitrage th...

Cantrip

I have wondered what securities lending income is on SLYV (State Street SP 600 value) and VBR (Vanguard CRSP small value). I know expense ratio of SLYV is .15 and VBR is .07 but need the securities lending to know true cost. You can calculate the security lending revenue from the annual report of e...

Cantrip

[/quote] What is really weird is that VIOV has an expense ratio of 0.20% and a 4 star rating from Morningstar. The iShares product that I own has an expense ratio of 0.25% and a 5 star rating from Morningstar. The two products follow the same index. What gives? [/quote] I agree with you that VIOV is...

Cantrip

Numbers are as reported on ETF.com and I think they are correct.

On the fund comparison page, https://www.etfrc.com/viov , on the ETFs that show the most similarity, VBR doesn't even show up when compared to VIOV. Therefore it has less than a 30% overlap with VIOV.

Cantrip

Per ETF.com (which takes the total earnings of the companies and divides by market capitalization) VTI P/E: 25.69 VIOV P/E: -1,210.15 (the average company is losing a little bit of money) VBR P/E: 27.21 Vanguard removes a company from its PE calculation if it is losing money. So of the companies mak...

Cantrip

I considered buying shares of farmland. Has low volatility, generates income, and historically has gone up every year in price. Go to acretrader.com to learn more. Also viewtopic.php?f=1&t=282606&p=4651578#p4651578

Cantrip

Unfortunately I am unable to make the Saturday October 12, 2019 meeting. Therefore will reschedule the meeting to the next week: October 19th, 2019 at 8am. Topic will be Estate Planning. Location remains the same at Guillermo's Coffeehouse, next to Chilis at I430 and Rodney Parham. Hope to see you t...

Cantrip

I've searched the archives, but not much information here regarding investment in church development funds. I was not even aware of their existence until our pastor promoted a particular fund from the pulpit during a financial-health-based sermon. When I got home and started looking at some of thes...

Cantrip

+1 on asif408. Should foreign equity allocation be increased since it appears significantly cheaper? If so, how to mechanically do it.

Cantrip

I just purchased Ibonds for my emergency fund (accessible 1 year from now). Currently has a 0.5% fixed rate, and in November the variable inflation rate will probably increase to the 2% ballpark for a total return of 2.5% state tax free.

Cantrip

Learned how to compute factor loading from index returns today. Over the full period for which we have return data, the CRSP Small Cap Value index has had a similar value load to the S&P600 Value index, but with more positive alpha. July 2001 - August 2019 S&P600 Value Index (IJS/VIOV) Beta:...

Cantrip

By just looking at tax efficiency and factor load it seems VIOV is the obvious choice over VBR. But I am worried about fund alpha. From 2001-2007, when the value factor was at its best, the S&P600 value index returned only 0.5% more than the S&P600 index and had a negative 3.5% alpha per yea...

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