Bogleheads.org

Thanks all. Answer makes sense to me!

I was led to yahoo because of python libraries. Back to the drawing board ... (Or forgetting about this particular data...)

Hi — I'm puzzled by a simple question, know I'm making a stupid error, and am hoping someone can set me right. I want to know the 5-year average annual return on VFORX.

Source 1 (vanguard): 5.33%
[url=https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VFORX/p ... ce?p=VFORX]Source 2 (yahoo finance)/url]: 7.6% or, via "trailing returns (%)": 10.94%

I'm pretty sure Vanguard is correct. Can anyone confirm? Any clues as to what is going on with Yahoo finance?

Thanks!

John

exodusNH wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 9:32 am

Are you specifically looking for a fund that only holds Treasury bills or do you mean Treasuries in general? Vanguard has several of the latter -- VGSH, VGIT, some longer duration ones. There is an ETF from another provider that holds shorter duration ones.

I was thinking T-bills only. VGSH is 1-3 years. VUSXX is pretty close, I should just stick with that (and direct purchase). Cheers!

Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 8:32 pm

tunafish wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:36 am So how do I know if I have lithium batteries in things? Can someone reply with a list or clues? Thanks.

Lithium batteries are ubiquitous.

It's larger lithium-ion batteries that have a one in a million chance of spontaneously combusting, like that one Tesla the other week.

But they're working on making lithium-sulfur batteries, so it'll be fine if you wait for that for the stuff that needs the large batteries - if you don't like one in a million chances anyway.

LiFePO4 chemistries are also supposed to be safer. Tradeoffs of course, and as you note the risk is small.

It is possible that future versions of language models like ChatGPT, with access to vast amounts of data and advanced mathematical capabilities, could be used to generate stock market predictions with greater accuracy than human investment managers. However, it is also important to note that stock market predictions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and volatility, and even the best predictions can be affected by unexpected events or market conditions. Additionally, even if such a model were able to generate accurate predictions, it would not necessarily mean that individual investors using the model would achieve better returns than those who invest in index funds, which are designed to track the performance of a broad market in...

I'm not sure that when my 6 month t-bill expires in 6 months that 6 month t-bills will still be my best fixed income option. Do you want auto-roll to maximize returns or for convenience? If convenience, I'd echo what has been said. Just buy a mutual fund. VUSXX gets you 4.4%. [Aside: Does anyone know a Vanguard fund that just invests in t-bills? VUSXX is good but is 31 day duration, so is leaving something on the table] I acknowledge that auto-roll fills a gap. It can be more optimized and less convenient than a mutual fund but less optimized and more convenient than doing things by hand. You may want to live in that space ... but it's a smallish space. <= .5%? (and I'd emphasize the "less than") On Vanguard vs Fidelity ... I get ...

This thread has some obnoxious replies. Anyone who saves a lot, and knows the sacrifice of doing so should be proud. It's never easy, and life always happens. If you're born with it that's different, and what "saving a lot" means varies wildly by circumstance.

I've about gotten there in my late 40's. Or not, since I do my accounting in year 2000 dollars. It is still a big accomplishment. Onward ...

Any account where you can buy t-bills (or, hold a pure t-bill mutual fund, though not quite as good). I can do this with any of my Vanguard IRAs (mine and my wife's, Roth or regular) or through my taxable account at Vanguard, or at TreasuryDirect (also taxable account, just not at Vangaurd).

Beautifully done on the data and plots side. Some approximations but I found it very interesting. Thanks!

I'm a big fan of the G-fund. It is a way to hold long-term bonds without the downside of short-term principal loss in a rising rate environment. It was (with i-bonds) my only bond holding for a lot of years. That said, I currently have no G-fund holdings, as I think there are slightly better options if you want to chase interest rates while holding risk roughly constant (and roughly zero): T-bills. Rationale: The inverted yield curve we have now means that shorter duration t-bills perform better than the longer-term bonds held in the g-fund. Specifically: G-fund is yielding 4%; VUSXX is 4.36%, and 6 month t- bills about 4.7%. If you think rates will rise in 6 months the one month rate is about 4.5%. All better than the g-fund. When the curv...

whoMe wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:00 am I would also consider their Treasury market fund. Always state tax exempt as it is 100% treasuries.

Thanks whoMe! Note to others: whoMe got in with this good advice as I was editing the post to put that into the question! They were too quick!

I had originally neglected that because of the $50k minimum it used to have. No longer!

Hi - In 2007 Harry Sit posted this useful blog: https://thefinancebuff.com/which-vanguard-money-market-fund.html Times have changed. If I have it right, VMFXX (Federal Money Market Fund) is now 37.79% US Government Obligations instead of about 70%. For those of us in high tax states it makes VMFXX less appealing. For reference, table of USGO last year: https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/USGOIN_2023.pdf 1. Do I have this right? 2. Does it make sense to switch to VMRXX (Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market) or VUSXX (Treasury Money Market) instead? The latter is basically indistinguishable to me (on risk and return), but has 100% USGO. Any advice? I know I'm chasing not much money, but it feels like something I can figure out once and ignore...

Hi. My two cents... In addition to general advice / theory on REITS... It's easy for academics to overfit historical data, come up with a mechanistic reason for the better returns to explain the overfitting, and then suggest a portfolio based upon that information. I am especially seeking perspective on avoiding psychological mistakes in revising an IPS. It is hard not to think that this is a bad time to drop REITs. I suggest you identify an investing strategy that you can adhere to over decades, despite what the financial gurus, academics, et al are telling you over those decades. If that strategy is tilting toward REITs, SCV, or anything else, fine. Personally, I don't trust (my psychology haved lived the life of an academic for decades)...

Thanks Tony, Ned. Appreciate the replies and insights. I will be modifying my IPS to reflect the 4% of total domestic that is REITS. That is, reducing the specific allocation from 10 -> 6%. And fixing the international as suggested.

Thanks for helping me think it through.

John

Hi - When I wrote my IPS in 2014 I allocated 10% of risky assets to REIT index funds. I was motivated by the work of Dale Swansen and the observations that REIT indices and stocks were not perfectly / well correlated. I am aware of arguments that investing separately in REITs doesn't make sense, as it overweights them and you hold them via total market indices. I am also concerned that holding REITs separately has distorted my domestic / international balance; I intend to hold 70% domestic / 30% foreign. But because of REITs I have 73% / 27%. In the past 9 years I have also paid off my mortgage, so I do hold more real estate. Not sure that matters since it's different kinds of real estate. I am looking for advice on whether to revise my IPS...

Where I am I can get them all OTA, between fox and Telemundo. Works well!

My spreadsheet has become a problem. It takes 10-15 min to load on a decent computer, and may be becoming self aware.

The slowness has become a feature as I check things less often!

I have been very impressed by BM Aura. I have also liked the Behr Premium Plus Ultra (#2) satisfactory. Behr Marquee is mixed and I ultimately cannot recommend. The finish has proved excellent, but I found it too runny in application. Maybe it's my technique, and it didn't help that I was doing a ceiling. I keep telling myself that my time is more than worth buying BM ... and then finding it hard to pay 2x! Maybe Regal Select is the compromise I've been looking for! On primers ... I swear by Zinser Bin Shellac. The stuff is nasty good. I also use Zin Bulls-eye 123 (very good) and Kilz Premium Latex primer (also quite good, maybe a shade below the 123). My house involves some of the meanest priming you will ever see. Decades of poorly applie...

My spreadsheet calculates 4 savings rates: 1. Savings (excluding mortgage principal) / gross (before taxes) 2. Savings (including mortgage principal) / gross (before taxes) 3. Savings (including mortgage principal) / net (after taxes) 4. Savings (excluding mortgage principal) / net (after taxes) Over time I have gravitated toward #3 as the most useful. I take advantage of Roth opportunities (and pre-pay taxes), up to the limit of my tax bracket, and I prepay my mortgage. I think both actions should be reflected in my savings rate since they reflect an intentional action. Using #3 lets me feel good (see a higher savings rate), providing positive feedback supporting the actions I think optimal. This is consistent with the BEA approach, at lea...

Strength workout at the park. That's frugal, but the real reason to post is: I used a homemade TRX-style suspension system. It was made with: Leftover PVC pipe from plumbing (handles), some nylon webbing I found helping my dad clean his basement; 2 caribiners I'd kept from my climbing days 20 years ago; 2 locking parachuting buckles (for easy adjustment), $7+ shipping. For comparison, a TRX system starts at $100. I even saved on thread by learning to tie an alpine butterfly loop knot.

There is a bunch of learning to understand how to control your body for effective suspension workouts. But then you can go to the park!

More importantly, how did you cut sugar out completely? I'm really good, but have struggled to go the last mile. Any tips? Probably not 100%. The main thing has been to really eliminate all the processed food that we may have had. For breakfast cereal I have swapped out national brands for Whole Foods 365 brand where there is no added sugar. We simply do not buy a lot of stuff we may have had in the house before (cookies.....). Scrutinize labels! I used to add some sugar to coffee but now drink it black. I tolerate some sucrose but pretty ruthless on other sugars. Hard to avoid some since fresh fruit will have. This is pretty much exactly what I've done, with the difference of making vats of chocolate / banana / steel cut oatmeal for break...

More importantly, how did you cut sugar out completely? I'm really good, but have struggled to go the last mile. Any tips? How do you define the last mile? That might help give you better advice. What specific food/habit are you struggling with? I cut out sugar and most carbs almost completely in the summer of 2021 and it was the best thing I've ever done. Lost over 35lbs so far. I really don't crave sugar anymore so trying to replace it is not as much of an issue. I have popcorn once a week still. :) I have tried artificial sweeteners but they often have an off taste. I do use Lakanto Monkfruit sweetener when I make holiday cheesecake, but in other uses it seems to overpower the other flavors. Natural peanut butter is sweet to me now and ...

Short answer: Yes. Long answer: Nothing's perfect ... but Citibank? Honestly? They are just horrible! I say this as a current Citibank member and former citibank gold member. True story: Saturday morning, taking my 7 year old over to deposit his first roll of coins, collected slowly on our walks. I check on the website first: They're open, full service. I get there, wait in line for a while. Get to the teller. Them: We don't do coins on the weekend. You can come back Monday. Me: Really? It says on your website, full-service teller. Them: "We're just helping out." (So you're not getting paid‽) Me: Could you update your website? Them: The website is accurate. (not kidding here ...) Classic citibank. They also cost me thousands on my...

Every time I make popcorn I leave it as-is. No butter, no salt. Tastes fine to me. Surely you jest. Everything is better with butter. I prefer plain with a slight salting - probably < 5% of amounts mentioned above. Since I cut sugar out of my diet, it takes very little salt for me to get a salt taste, on any food. I would not be surprised if heavy salt use (not just popcorn) is highly correlated with sugar consumption but have never seen any data so it is merely a theory. A stick of butter typically last about six months in our house. More likely to use EVO. Lard on a couple of baked items. There is some evidence that high salt increases the body's own, native, fructose production. Probably unrelated to your observation but maybe? https://...

Amish Country extra large caramel type popcorn fresh grated Parmesan cheese Penzeys chipotle powder fine sea salt ground to powder in mortar/pestle Heat neutral oil in large saucepan (mine is All-Clad) with 3 popcorn kernels; oil is ready when these have popped Pour in enough popcorn to cover bottom in a single layer. Remove from heat for 60 seconds (this supposedly allows all kernels to heat to similar level and reduces unpopped kernels) Pop over medium high heat until 2-3 seconds between pops Remove from heat. Pour in three increments into large bowl, sprinkling each with cheese, chipotle and salt to taste. Mix entire bowl well. Eat while thinking about how great your life is. I came here to share something similar. Having recently, sadl...

So is my streak. Haven't read the full thread, but have not seen any discussion of "hard mode". I switch over this week. It will end my streak sometime, but not today.

Also fun: Worldle: https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/

It's still there for me (or was on Tuesday). The nagging does seem to have lessened!

My preferred metric is to count payments of mortgage principal as savings (as I have been paying it down), counting matching as income, and dividing by net after taxes. I include the gross percents (counting taxes as an expense) parenthetically. The rough bottom line is "half to savings". 2021: 79% (62%) 2020: 55% (46%) 2019: 53% (43%) 2018: 62% (50%) 2017: 69% (57%) I'm not in the FIRE crowd. As a sole earner I'm just paranoid about not being able to support my family, saving helps me cope. It's not healthy, but I accepted it. Starting to ease up as we "get there". Yes, except we were dual income, and that we met our goal, and had good friends come over for a barbeque and had a mortgage burning party! Congrats! I just ...

My preferred metric is to count payments of mortgage principal as savings (as I have been paying it down), counting matching as income, and dividing by net after taxes. I include the gross percents (counting taxes as an expense) parenthetically. The rough bottom line is "half to savings".

2021: 79% (62%)
2020: 55% (46%)
2019: 53% (43%)
2018: 62% (50%)
2017: 69% (57%)

I'm not in the FIRE crowd. As a sole earner I'm just paranoid about not being able to support my family, saving helps me cope. It's not healthy, but I accepted it. Starting to ease up as we "get there".

Vanguard User wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 2:18 pm

AnonJohn wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:29 pm
Been happy with mint for 3+ years. $15/ month! Recommend for sure if near a metropolitan area.

It comes out to $15 only if you had paid $180 in advance.

But of course! Once you know you like them, this is a nice way to get savings. Especially when combined with credit card cash back. ☺ The Boglehead way‽

If you take the loan from your G Fund allocation, you don't lose much potential gain. This is a better option even if you weren't in a cash crunch. If you were invested in the G fund while keeping the mortgage, you would be loaning money at 1.5 percent while simultaneously borrowing it at 4.625 percent. I'm going to repeat what has been said, including from trueblueky, but with the standing of having done this within the past year. I view this as interest rate arbitrage. If you view the loan as a negative bond, then taking money from the G-fund to pay the loan keeps your stock risk the same, but you get a better interest rate on the bond portion. I would (and did) do it ... if ... 1. You anticipate being with the government for the duratio...

Vanguard User wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:45 am

Prudence wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:10 pm

Vanguard User wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:59 am

Prudence wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:39 am I signed up with Mint a couple of months ago and need to decide whether to extend for another year in January. It is really cheap. But, there were at least two missed texts that I know of. It is very troubling that neither the sender nor me was aware that the texts did not get delivered and that this is what is guaranteed to occur occasionally. I live in Wash DC suburbs. I wish I had signed with a less cheap seller than Mint.

How much do you pay per month?

I can get it for $15 per month per line if willing to pay for a year in advance ($180).

Why wouldn’t you do that?

Been happy with mint for 3+ years. $15/ month! Recommend for sure if near a metropolitan area.

mkc wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 8:27 am
Very familiar with Slice!

Yes, I use a cast iron skillet for Chicago. Here's one of my posts with photos from back in 2009 https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index ... 4#msg70434

Respect! Nice balance of sauce and prov and a good amount of brown on the crust. I lived in IL for a number of years and (as a thin crust guy) took a while to develop a grudging respect for Chicago style. ☺ I like it like you did, with a not extreme sauce to prov ratio. Thx for sharing!

Wife and I absolutely love our '55 2021 Samsung Frame TV https://www.bestbuy.com/site/samsung-55-class-the-frame-series-led-4k-uhd-smart-tizen-tv/6451485.p?skuId=6451485 . The new model lets you put 120 4K images up in rotation and the tv calibrates them so it looks like art work. Seeing family and friends rotate throughout the day always puts a smile on our faces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnxWdlY3nLM Thanks for this! I spent a lot of time agonizing over a decision† like the OP and kept gravitating toward the Frame after I discovered it. The one connect looks brilliant, and I was surprised to learn that it uses less power than a comparable OLED. Thanks for sharing your experience! One question: Have you been happy with the slideshow...

4 squares of equal exchange a day, 100 cal, 1/2 oz. (roughly 1 bar / week) Eat primarily Equal Exchange 92% (Togo), but enjoy their 88%, 88% Endangered Species, 88% Chocolove, 85% Lindt (not Alkali), and Montezuma 100% (Trader Joes in the US). Divine 84% and Alter Eco 85% are OK. Don't like the finish on Madecasse. Theo and Hu have long been on my list, maybe look again based on this thread. But I like EE. Buy in bulk in the winter and lasts all year at a fair price for well-sourced product. I look for no emulsifiers (soy lechthin), no milk fats, no dutch processing, and low sugar. The Pure 7 line and Pacari also go up to 100%, but I haven't tried. At that level I highly recommend the Montezumas. I enjoy them, but have not enjoyed Lindt 99%...

With you in the analysis by paralysis. Looking forward to reading this thread. Note: New TCL series 6 have Google TV as an option, not just Roku. Big plus for me.

If you are serious about pizza, this is valuable: https://www.varasanos.com/PizzaRecipe.htm This one is my favorite https://www.pizzamaking.com/forum/index.php It's the Bogleheads' forum of pizza. My dough is an evolved JerryMac/Pete-zza recipe. Dabbling in Chicago - BTB Malnati clone with Semolina. Detroit-style I follow HansB' recipe Andrew Janjigian is a great one to follow https://wordloaf.substack.com/ Formerly the bread/pizza guy at Cook's Illustrated, he now freelances. Thanks for sharing! The Varasano recipe I linked was originally posted and developed on what I think was the predecessor of the pizzamaking forums! Slice.seriouseats.com, when it was a thing. But the icons and menu of pizzamaking look the same. 15-20 years ago. Jeff ...

We have a full sized convection oven and the Breville $$$ toaster oven / air fryer / dehydrator. I like both, both get a lot of use. But the super-duper toaster oven is used as often as a small oven (don't need the big one!) as an air fryer. I'm guessing it doesn't work as well as a real air fryer, but has its uses in that space: 1. Reheating anything frozen that could be / was originally fried. (breaded chicken, potstickers, fries) 2. A replacement for pan frying large batches of meatballs and vegetable (e.g. lentil) patties. Not quite as good as pan frying, but much easier / faster. 3. Air frying a few things:1. Chicken wings / drum sticks; 2. Breaded okra 3. brussel sprouts; 4. Potato and sweet potato fries from scratch Probably a couple...

Plus one to wooden peel on and metal peel on. I use (indoors, but can be used outdoors) the Fibrament-D stone. It is excellent. Have also heard good things about steels.

If you are serious about pizza, this is valuable: https://www.varasanos.com/PizzaRecipe.htm

His approach of using a sourdough starter a day or two ahead has given us excellent results. The flexibility of doing it 1-2 days ahead, refrigerating and then pulling the dough a few hours before cooking has proved reasonably convenient. Advance planning, but a lot of flexibility to accommodate schedules.

Hi Muss and Moose - Did either of you ever obtain clarity on this? I am particularly interested in the fact that the plan materials (as cited) don't line up with the second part of the code, which reads: "In addition ... any deduction taken under this section shall be subject to recapture in the taxable year in which the withdrawal or rollover is made after 2 years of the establishment of the account for any reason other than provided in subsection (d) of this section or to transfer to another qualified tuition program." Section D provides that you don't get recaptured if "(4) The funds are transferred to another account maintained under the Program.", seemingly restricting rollovers to this bad programs? (If not as bad...

Hi Muss and Moose - Did either of you ever obtain clarity on this? I am particularly interested in the fact that the plan materials (as cited) don't line up with the second part of the code, which reads: "In addition ... any deduction taken under this section shall be subject to recapture in the taxable year in which the withdrawal or rollover is made after 2 years of the establishment of the account for any reason other than provided in subsection (d) of this section or to transfer to another qualified tuition program." Section D provides that you don't get recaptured if "(4) The funds are transferred to another account maintained under the Program.", seemingly restricting rollovers to this bad programs? (If not as bad ...

Alright, time to say something useful instead of jokes. Lots of good info in this thread. I'm with Firefox + ublock origin + privacy badger. One additional nice feature of firefox is multi-account containers. You can configure it so that, say, vanguard, always opens in its own container, with cookies and other data partitioned away from everything else. The same as visiting in a private browser, but it can retain info specific to vanguard from session to session (isolated from other web-browsing) AND, it automatically opens in that container when I try to visit vanguard. I also use the facebook container plugin (though likely redundant) and behind the overlay revival. If you've never tried it, the lightbeam plugin, which graphically represe...

HanSolo wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:40 am

whodidntante wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:36 am

Kagord wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:00 am

whodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:18 pmLynx.

That's a little heavy weight isn't it? curl is so much better for the true HTML experience, and it's compatible with every web site.

At least someone got it.

You guys must be kidding. Just telnet to port 80...

So close to winning the thread. But ... port 443!

whodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:18 pmLynx.

LOL. You don't think it's become too cluttered since they added ncurses color support?

I use both. My original philosophy was to focus on the G-fund for simplicity. But I bonds pay a better rate and have tax advantages, so I'm increasingly skewing that way. When / if the G fund starts beating I bonds, I'll sell some and swing back.

I view them both as "safe as cash", though G fund has some inflation risk, obviously.

The downside to my approach is that given the purchase limits on I bonds managing ones portfolio in this way is more work intensive and becomes irrelevant as ones portfolio gets larger and the ratio of i-bond purchase limits : portfolio bond allocation goes to zero.

But for now, the effort is still worth it to me. Roughly: 2% * 20k / year = $400 / year. Worth my time, not worth it for others.

UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:08 pm The quality of Wirecutter's product reviews has been diminishing ever since the NY Times purchased the former Sweethome site in 2016. If Wirecutter goes behind a paywall it will be dead to me.

+1. I found TheSweethome for their bike lock review. It is epic. An independent reporter talked to everyone, put out bikes to steal and even found a number of bike thieves to break locks. There was a table covering how long it took an angle grinder to cut different locks. I was an immediate convert. But, as you say .... diminishing ...

Paid off the mortgage yesterday! 9 years, 11 months, and 15 days in. Plus 3 refinances. The culmination of a 4 year plan. First, to accumulate enough assets that I could pay it off quickly. With the plunge in bond rates over the past year I accelerated things (I view negative bonds as a useful concept for quantifying risk and couldn't find attractive refinancing). Then I took a 401k loan to do some interest rate (bond) arbitrage and now ... it's gone! :sharebeer I still have the 401k loan, but that's a loan to myself, so I'm willing to celebrate. Thanks to BH for all the wisdom along the way. I listened to both the "Pay it off, feels great" people AND those who cautioned about the importance of liquidity and the merits of holding...

Paid off the mortgage yesterday! 9 years, 11 months, and 15 days in. Plus 3 refinances. The culmination of a 4 year plan. First, to accumulate enough assets that I could pay it off quickly. With the plunge in bond rates over the past year I accelerated things (I view negative bonds as a useful concept for quantifying risk and couldn't find attractive refinancing). Then I took a 401k loan to do some interest rate (bond) arbitrage and now ... it's gone! :sharebeer I still have the 401k loan, but that's a loan to myself, so I'm willing to celebrate. Thanks to BH for all the wisdom along the way. I listened to both the "Pay it off, feels great" people AND those who cautioned about the importance of liquidity and the merits of holding ...

I would just go induction. Completely love ours, 1.5 years in. Would never want anything else. Like it better than the gas it replaced, and so much more responsive than resistance. Buy a few good pots and you're set! The combo of the stove and great pots gives me joy daily.

We have never had anything burn on the top!!! Yay, induction. And cooler in the summer .... I can keep going ... But won't.

My experience is probably irrelevant as you seem to be looking up-market. But we love our Prius prime. It's relatively cheap (or was before the pandemic), gets a tax credit, and has 30 miles of electric range. For our use case that's enough, and we only burn gas when we go on road trips, less than once a month. We only charge at home. Plug-in hybrids are a weird narrow middle, but that's the point. Know your use case and buy appropriately. The prime is great for road trips b/c the ICE is absurdly efficient. Total range is more than 500 miles. But ... the car is made to do one thing. Move people efficiently. The other virtue of an all-electric that I haven't seen come up is maintenance. Teslas in fleets are posting 100's of thousands of mile...