Search found 299 matches

by warowits
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6139

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by warowits
Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire today?
Replies: 132
Views: 7644

Re: Can I retire today?

Why would you quit now and make your boss's life easier? I would just smile and say no to him/her whenever something needs to be done. An employee who doesn't need the money and just continues to come to work to make his bosses life miserable. Its a decent premise for a sitcom. The numbers look fin...
by warowits
Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Payoff Student Loans or Save?
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Payoff Student Loans or Save?

Hi, I have $140K in student loans at 5.25%. I expect to have some free cash flow in the next couple of years, and am trying to decide whether to pay off the debt or save and invest. Investments are with an RIA right now, and current bull market not withstanding I expect to get consistently average ...
by warowits
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drum sets?
Replies: 10
Views: 652

Re: Drum sets?

Pearl export, buy it used and there should be plenty availible. There are lots of other good ones but these are ubiquitous. Cymbals are tricky. Good heads will make an entry level kit sound good. Cheap cymbals will never sound good. Get zildjian A or something comparable, Sabian AAX was great for J...
by warowits
Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drum sets?
Replies: 10
Views: 652

Re: Drum sets?

Pearl export, buy it used and there should be plenty availible. There are lots of other good ones but these are ubiquitous. Cymbals are tricky. Good heads will make an entry level kit sound good. Cheap cymbals will never sound good. Get zildjian A or something comparable, Sabian AAX was great for Ja...
by warowits
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?
Replies: 52
Views: 7015

Re: How big a portfolio should I have before retiring?

Question How big of a portfolio would you require to feel comfortable retiring? I would require a portfolio of at least 50x (50 times annual income/expenses needed) to begin to feel comfortable in retirement. And even more than that would add to that comfort level. :D Everyone is different. To some...
by warowits
Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4819

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

I would say we have expanded the money supply greatly... I don't see that the money supply has been increasing particularly quickly: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fjCv Household debt to GDP has been trending downard: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eDaK As has household debt service as ...
by warowits
Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4819

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

Standard Boglehead disclaimer, I realize I know nothing, so I keep investing according to my plan. However, if I was inclined to listen to my own suspicions, I would say we have expanded the money supply greatly, but the inflation monster is nowhere to be found. Perhaps increased wealth inequality ...
by warowits
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 4819

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

Standard Boglehead disclaimer, I realize I know nothing, so I keep investing according to my plan. However, if I was inclined to listen to my own suspicions, I would say we have expanded the money supply greatly, but the inflation monster is nowhere to be found. Perhaps increased wealth inequality m...
by warowits
Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Photography gear and what you use it for?
Replies: 26
Views: 1739

Re: Photography gear and what you use it for?

1 First Real Camera of distinction. Canon 7d 2 Camera gear now? Canon 5diii, studio and portable lighting. 3 Lenses? Canon 70-200 2.8 IS II Sigma Art 50mm Tamron SP 15-30mm f/2.8 Di VC Canon EFS 40mm 4 Favorite lens? I like the 70-200, my wife likes the 50mm art. She makes actual money with photogra...
by warowits
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 4941

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

As I understand it the buyback stock does go up in value because of better EPS but they now have less cash on hand (or they add debt) which counters this effect, making it basically a neutral transaction just like a dividend distribution. Call me old fashioned but I would prefer companies pay divide...
by warowits
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Rolex and The Boglehead
Replies: 274
Views: 11681

Re: The Rolex and The Boglehead

I don't know anyone under 40 who wears a watch of any kind. I wonder if the secondary market is taking a hit based on this trend. The new market certainly seems to be.
by warowits
Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 7015

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

I'm surprised some people don't know that in 7 states the minimum wage for servers is the same as the usual minimum wage. This includes the 3 states on the west coast, all of which have minimum wages over $10 per hour, headed to $15 per hour. In these cases, not only do I not tip on tax, I tip less...
by warowits
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are quality exterior doors worth it?
Replies: 17
Views: 2182

Re: Are quality exterior doors worth it?

If you are going to spend a lot on a door, it better look nice. The difference between a 500 dollar door and a 3,000 dollar door will most likely be cosmetic, unless it is a specialty security door.
by warowits
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 26125

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

While there are alot of wealthy posters on bogleheads, if you pay attention for long enough to the bogleheads I think most people will be fairly wealthy eventually. I have been coming for about 2 years. When I got here I assumed I was doing great (I had enough extra money I was looking up investing ...
by warowits
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't want to lock down in IRA until I am 59.5
Replies: 12
Views: 1332

Re: Don't want to lock down in IRA until I am 59.5

You can remove Roth IRA contributions tax free whenever you want, as you have already paid taxes on that money.
by warowits
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?
Replies: 73
Views: 8525

Re: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?

DetroitRick wrote:
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:03 am
I do think we make younger Bogleheads unnecessarily anxious.
Finally someone to blame for our angst!
by warowits
Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8343

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

If you are at a 2% withdrawl rate nearly any plan will turn out fantastic, as long as you are diversified.
by warowits
Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit scores are stupid
Replies: 18
Views: 1489

Re: Credit scores are stupid

As far as I can tell anything over 760 and it's all the same.
by warowits
Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 25912

Re: How much money do you need to retire?

$1,481,206 at age 60. (adjusted for inflation) Assumes paid for house and no debts, with the kids out of college and on their own.
That anticipates SS will be around at 75% of what it is now and I can take it at 67-70.
by warowits
Fri Jul 07, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No "sequence of returns risk" what to do about withdrawals
Replies: 35
Views: 3106

Re: No "sequence of returns risk" what to do about withdrawals

I know this is broad question but I wondering what's a reasonable % to take. I've been doing about 4-5%, am in my midsixties and my AA is 50/50. I still like the VPW method. For you if you're 65 and have a 50/50 allocation I would say 4.8% of last years balance should be this years distribution. Ju...
by warowits
Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you buy a house with little or no income?
Replies: 24
Views: 2355

Re: Can you buy a house with no income?

Let's say you have $300,000 cash in your bank, maybe a $10k existing auto loan (no other loans or debts), but no income, can you still buy a house that's worth, say, $260,000 and put only the traditional 20% down? Will banks give you a mortgage in this case? I would think not, unless it was a renta...
by warowits
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drum sets
Replies: 12
Views: 1214

Re: Drum sets

Craigslist is where you buy, but you need to do your research. Also drum kits do not wear out, but she may be ready for a better kit. In my experience cymbals are the hardest part to find good ones used, and are the part that it is most important not to buy the cheap stuff.
by warowits
Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 4719

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

Due to the new Fiduciary Rule, my firm no longer allows me to invest in no load funds, The contorted logic which would have to go into that sort of reading of the fiduciary rule is literally beyond my comprehension. Believe me, the humor/hypocrisy is not lost on me. My firm is interpreting the Fidu...
by warowits
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to find Loaded Index Funds
Replies: 64
Views: 4719

Re: Need to find Loaded Index Funds

AaronS wrote:Due to the new Fiduciary Rule, my firm no longer allows me to invest in no load funds,
The contorted logic which would have to go into that sort of reading of the fiduciary rule is literally beyond my comprehension.
by warowits
Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!
Replies: 75
Views: 6632

Re: Another one of those "We are at the peak, crash is coming, how do I invest?" posts!

However, the video makes a very strong case based on economic facts (not crystal ball as someone suggested). I think even the most confident person will have a bit of doubt after watching it. I am not sure if I am allowed to post it here but it's on youtube and it's called 'James davidson market co...
by warowits
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?
Replies: 139
Views: 14542

Re: Who takes financial chances and why is this forum so financially conservative?

But you really can't rest until you have at least a million and a half for a couple (or the equivalent in pensions). And this is in addition to social security. Two years ago I would have said this is insane. I would have assumed you were being sarcastic, because that is massively more than the ave...
by warowits
Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: couple questions about SSA (67 vs 70) and breakeven points
Replies: 20
Views: 2076

Re: couple questions about SSA (67 vs 70) and breakeven points

I'm nowhere near retirement (age or otherwise) but recently I went to SSA.gov and it said If I retire at: 62 I'd get $1324 a month 67 I'd get $1898 a month 70 I'd get $2358 a month You hear a lot about breakeven points but to my mind the biggest issue is I could not live comfortably on $1898 amonth...
by warowits
Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Babson College
Replies: 30
Views: 2870

Re: Babson College

...what you learned at the school is ultimately more important than name recognition. Do you really believe what they teach is that much different than the other excellent business program in the NE, say, UMass, Boston College, or Northeastern? Or, since the OP is in the 'midwest', that much differ...
by warowits
Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Babson College
Replies: 30
Views: 2870

Re: Babson College

That just demonstrates how elitist southern California has become. Perhaps, but the reality is that there are maybe ~ten national undergrad business schools; the rest are ALL local, with great connections on the local/regional community. Babson is less known on the west than the University of Phoen...
by warowits
Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to deal with a personal finance cynic
Replies: 109
Views: 7425

Re: How to deal with a personal finance cynic

I do think he understands that he is responsible for his future. It is the cynicism that has set in, I feel, that is hindering him doing more than he is. I get the sense that he thinks that it is very hard for most of the common folk to move ahead in this land of opportunity. I am pretty sure that ...
by warowits
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dave Ramsey Financial Peace University ??? worth it?
Replies: 120
Views: 9387

Re: Dave Ramsey Financial Peace University ??? worth it?

his fundamental understanding of investing and personal finance is highly flawed. I do not think his understanding of investing is flawed, I think it is transparently self interested. His personal finance advice is quite good, and focuses on behavior. His master plan is to convince you to have a hi...
by warowits
Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes a Conservative BHer? for retirement purposes
Replies: 16
Views: 1644

Re: What makes a Conservative BHer? for retirement purposes

keystone wrote:Just my opinion, but one who thinks that a 4% SWR is too risky for a 30 year retirement.
+1
by warowits
Mon May 29, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 18106

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

I am not saying that everybody should be 100% equities, I am saying don't borrow money and then turn around and loan it out at a lower interest rate. The example you gave was borrowing at 3.25% to lend out at 2.8%. I'm not sure what those rates are supposed to represent, but a 3.25% mortgage deduct...
by warowits
Mon May 29, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 18106

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

If the logical thing to do would be to pay down the mortgage from your tax advantaged space if you could do it without penalty, why not just pay it down instead of putting it in there in the first place? warowits, Many of my peers followed this logic and then took a more expensive student loan or r...
by warowits
Mon May 29, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 18106

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

warowits, << Clearly it's equities or pay down debt. >> Why is that the only way? It could be borrowed at 3.25% and invested in Wellington (65/35) fund and earned 6+% in the process. It does not have to be 100/0 or 0/100. There are multiple options between 0/100 to 100/0. KlangFool I would argue th...
by warowits
Mon May 29, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 18106

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

warowits, << Clearly it's equities or pay down debt. >> Why is that the only way? It could be borrowed at 3.25% and invested in Wellington (65/35) fund and earned 6+% in the process. It does not have to be 100/0 or 0/100. There are multiple options between 0/100 to 100/0. KlangFool I would argue th...
by warowits
Mon May 29, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 18106

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Frankly, unless one is in a high tax rate AND is gaining a significant benefit from itemizing their taxes and/or has a mortgage rate well under 3%, I think that retaining a mortgage in favor of buying bonds makes little sense for most people. Of course there are exceptions, and generalities help no...
by warowits
Tue May 23, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 9156

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think people see a bubble because they look back to 2008-2009 and see the increase from there, but go back to 2002 or 2000 and let me know if the growth of the stock market over a longer period seems unreasonably high. This is a really fantastic point - if you consider the last few years simply p...
by warowits
Fri May 19, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lawyers charging for asking about fees
Replies: 62
Views: 8629

Re: Lawyers charging for asking about fees

Are lawyers "allowed" to bill you for time asking them about fees? Is it common practice? Against ABA guidelines? Just looking for guidance here. Thanks. I would say no in my experience billing people for a quick question about your bill is not common practice. As to ABA guidelines you are looking ...
by warowits
Mon May 15, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quality decline in off-brand alkaline batteries?
Replies: 28
Views: 2062

Re: Quality decline in off-brand alkaline batteries?

I will occasionally use a non rechargeable battery in my camera flash (Canon 430 ex ii). I only bring it up because at a big event like a wedding you have a fairly consistent discharge of a set of batteries, and can easily compare it to other times you have done the same thing. Brand name batteries ...
by warowits
Sun May 14, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do i still need Term Life Insurance ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1558

Re: Do i still need Term Life Insurance ?

It is a personal decision, but I would say no.
by warowits
Sat May 13, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help a newbie
Replies: 3
Views: 450

Re: Help a newbie

No. It includes those companies, and they make up most of their holdings, but there are also medium and small size companies in there.
by warowits
Wed May 10, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Long Term, Starting Small
Replies: 5
Views: 698

Re: Advice for Long Term, Starting Small

I don't see why I shouldn't hold AMZN when its return is 4x the S&P 500. A financial advisor told me to invest in international stocks because they are "undervalued" - what do you think? Is there a better option for where to invest if you think the market is going to take a turn? Or are you just st...
by warowits
Wed May 10, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 81
Views: 12904

Re: WHy Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

Why has the 60%/40% asset allocation worked so well? The 35 year bond bull market that started in 1982. The 30 year Treasury bond yielded 14% in February 1982. Today it yields 3.02%. I don't think 30 year Treasury bond yield will fall 78% (14% to 3% from 1982 to 2017) over the next 30-35 years. The...
by warowits
Wed May 10, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uses of Debt
Replies: 21
Views: 2652

Re: Uses of Debt

The thing about spending tomorrow's money is you don't know how hard you will have to work to earn it yet. For example I find I am less likely to make a $1000 purchase with cash from savings than if I can just finance it. Most people are similar. There is no mathematical or tax advantage to getting ...
by warowits
Tue May 09, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young professional planning for early semi-retirement
Replies: 34
Views: 4458

Re: Young professional planning for early semi-retirement

livesoft wrote:Try to marry someone with a good job that likes to work, so you don't have to.
I have found it a little hard to sell the dream of early retirement to my spouse because they basically are retired as it is.
by warowits
Sun May 07, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 20857

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

EZ-Pee-Zee other than the fact that virtually no-one can afford to retire ever following the 2% Berstein Rule. I honestly think that it is irresponsible to advocate a 2% withdrawal rate to people just starting to plan for retirement. It does more harm than good. You think 'well we have been very co...
by warowits
Fri May 05, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 20857

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

Say you want 40k a year in retirement to spend above social security, you will need about a million dollars (ignoring inflation). You are 25 and you want to retire when you are 65, and you expect about a 6% return (ignoring inflation). For a 25 year old saving $538 a month isn't impossible, but it w...