Search found 430 matches

by warowits
Mon May 25, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 93
Views: 4579

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I bought some VTSAX during the third week of March, which was pretty good timing. It was not a regularly scheduled buy, I just couldn't believe how far it had fallen so quickly.


Now I cannot understand why it is so high again.
by warowits
Mon May 25, 2020 4:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worried about sibling financial future
Replies: 31
Views: 3948

Re: Worried about sibling financial future

I have no intention of interfering with their life, but has anyone ever been in a similar situation or had similar concerns? I grew up in a similar small town. The average retiree had a paid for house (worth very little), SS and maybe a part time job if they could still physically work. That was it...
by warowits
Tue May 19, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Contemplating expensive house purchase during pandemic
Replies: 41
Views: 3891

Re: Contemplating expensive house purchase during pandemic

I'd recommend staying put for a few more months until real estate prices fall and snatch yourself a great deal! I live in a LCOL location, and all real estate markets are different, but prices are going up around me, not down. People who are losing jobs tend to be on the low end of the pay scale, a...
by warowits
Mon May 18, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488263

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The problem with market timing is now you not only need to be right about what the economy will do, you also have to be right about what the government will do. As far as I can tell stocks have decoupled from economic reality. My only questions are when will we go down again, and what unthinkable me...
by warowits
Thu May 14, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New bogleheads induction [Request for new subforum]
Replies: 55
Views: 3106

Re: New bogleheads induction

Most of those posters know where they are when they post. Read between the lines and some are saying ‘my gut says I am a great market timer, or my fear is spiraling out of control, can you guys keep me from making a big mistake?“
by warowits
Mon May 04, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice When You Live in a No-Income Tax State?
Replies: 10
Views: 804

Re: Investment Advice When You Live in a No-Income Tax State?

I think the obvious is using a Roth, but that still depends on the situation. If you expect to be in the 12% bracket in retirement and in a higher federal bracket now the state tax savings may not make up the difference. Living in an income tax free state really influences your spending more than yo...
by warowits
Sat May 02, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Dealers not really wanting to make a deal
Replies: 227
Views: 31461

Re: Car Dealers not really wanting to make a deal

SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/suvs-get-parked-in-the-ocean-and-reveal-scope-of-u-s-car-glut Quote: "A shipper says packed lots are unlike anything he’s ever seen" Those are Fiat Chrysler of Japan products thou...
by warowits
Fri May 01, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1563
Views: 142495

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I would like to see the rates available to me but it seems like everyone wants you to apply before they tell you their rates, when I know darn well that 98% of places don't have a competitive rate right now. Is there anywhere other than Northpointe that is competitive, and showing their rates for we...
by warowits
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to help family friend get away from AXA
Replies: 8
Views: 619

Re: Trying to help family friend get away from AXA

It is a deferred variable annuity, and you really need to read all the terms and fees before doing anything. The problem with some of these is that it may be obvious it is a lousy product, but once you have bought it, it isn't always obvious what to do about it. For example there is a very steep fee...
by warowits
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?
Replies: 116
Views: 7852

Re: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?

Even if they convinced me it did return the same as the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested and there were no fees, I would have to discount the value of the promised downside protection to account for how bad at business this company was. Could they be solvent if they had to actually pay up on these ...
by warowits
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 4895

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

If you are weightlifting doing full body compound lifts with heavy weights, there are some real cardiovascular side benefits. Heavy squats can really get your heart going.

Curls and other isolation work, not so much.
by warowits
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget Wall Street, lets talk main street
Replies: 12
Views: 1039

Re: Forget Wall Street, lets talk main street

Not worried about losing my job, saving a ton on trips and entertainment. I put all my discretionary money in the market back in March, so I wouldn’t have had much to spend anyway. I anticipate when we really get back to work the hours will be longer for awhile. I would anticipate a little higher sa...
by warowits
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Upgrade Computer Before Law School?
Replies: 42
Views: 1866

Re: Upgrade Computer Before Law School?

Both in law school and as a lawyer you will find that portability and battery life are very important, more so than computing power. Work got me a Surface Book 2, and that would have been perfect for school. Not a powerhouse, but exceptional battery life, portability and NO FAN! It can still easily ...
by warowits
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why has the advice on how much house to buy changed over the years?
Replies: 37
Views: 1498

Re: Why has the advice on how much house to buy changed over the years?

I believe the premise is wrong. The average size of new homes built in the United States grew 62 percent from 1,660 square feet in 1973 to 2,687 square feet in 2015, an increase of 1,027 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. When people buy single family homes, they're not buying the ba...
by warowits
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if one rebalanced on March 16, the RBD?
Replies: 81
Views: 5024

Re: What if one rebalanced on March 16, the RBD?

Holding no bonds, I could not rebalance. I did however place unscheduled buys on 3/16 and 3/18. I had run out of extra cash by the real lows of 3/20-3/23. That being said I have been nervously watching the prices of stocks go to nosebleed levels for years. I didn’t think I was getting an amazing dea...
by warowits
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9515

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

In April of 1995 the 10yr treasury was over 7%. If the US government offered that right now I would snap it up, and have a serious amount of my money in bonds. Currently at less than 1% I will never lend the government money. I just wont. For bonds to do so well again the interest rate in 25 years w...
by warowits
Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help decide between 15 or 30 year Refi
Replies: 11
Views: 830

Re: Help decide between 15 or 30 year Refi

In any other time I would say 15 and be done with it. I may still say that if you don’t owe a ton compared to your income (not worth the hassle). But exactly right now I am having a hard time seeing long term inflation under 3%, and a 3% 30 year loan might not be a terrible idea. Just have it paid o...
by warowits
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father passed, helping Mom with Investments
Replies: 11
Views: 721

Father passed, helping Mom with Investments

Dad passed, Mom (early 70s) is trying to get everything in order. Investment wise they have a fair bit at Edward Jones in mixed stock and bond funds. Taxable held jointly, Dads Traditional IRA, Moms Traditional IRA, and Mom’s Roth IRA. Typical high ER and load funds, plus I think EJ now has an AUM f...
by warowits
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1594

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by warowits
Mon May 27, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?
Replies: 34
Views: 4276

Re: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?

Why it failed would seem to be a combination of experiencing a long period of poor returns in stocks followed by severe inflation. If you move ahead to 1982 when inflation started to fall, real interest rates peaked, and a great bull market started, you get the best year to retire. A notable fact i...
by warowits
Thu May 16, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 9586

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

"how long will Amazon dominate" I dunno, but for reference: if we steer the olde time machine back to 1975ish, the three giants of American retail were JC Penny, Montgomery Wards, and Sears Roebuck. If you had invested $10k in Monkey Wards in 1975 ... it went bankrupt around 2001. If you had invest...
by warowits
Mon May 13, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 11895

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

SS comes nowhere into my retirement planning. I am in my 30's. It will be either greatly reduced or have a significantly older eligibility age when it comes time for me to use it. That's a wise strategy. No, it isn’t. Sure SS may change, but it will be there. Even if is only worth 80% of what it is...
by warowits
Thu May 09, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?
Replies: 32
Views: 4066

Re: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?

What is Social Security's agenda? Immediate economic stimulus? No idea. Many non Bogleheads would view such a situation as a welcome windfall and I could see people at SS being excited to tell folks about this exciting opportunity! Why you would wait all the way until 70 and then do this I don’t re...
by warowits
Thu May 09, 2019 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?
Replies: 32
Views: 4066

Re: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?

Social security is actuarially neutral, in theory anyway. Shouldn’t really matter to them if you take it at 69.5 or 70.
by warowits
Wed May 01, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2780

Re: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement

Using a total return portfolio and the 3% rule... Also,I realize that the total return portfolio (60/40) would only yield an 85% chance of success. The 3% rule isn’t a thing. It is not based on anything that I am aware of, other than pessimism for the sake of pessimism, or a basis for bragging abou...
by warowits
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2780

Re: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement

Using a total return portfolio and the 3% rule... Also,I realize that the total return portfolio (60/40) would only yield an 85% chance of success. The 3% rule isn’t a thing. It is not based on anything that I am aware of, other than pessimism for the sake of pessimism, or a basis for bragging abou...
by warowits
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Get Customers for New, Small Catering Business
Replies: 10
Views: 693

Re: How to Get Customers for New, Small Catering Business

You have to be willing to work evenings, weekends and holidays. I have seen alot of people try to get into similar gigs for fun, or to pursue their passion or whatever, without understanding that 95% of the events will be evenings, weekends and holidays. Try to get hooked in with your local wedding ...
by warowits
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Pensions are great for those who stay to retire. The value can be much less with only a few years, as the formula will use the salary you were earning just prior to leaving -- not COLA adjusted to age 65. I checked up on this. You have to choose when you start if you want a full pension system (5 y...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

FWIW, a buddy took a public sector job, after a down turn in our private sector job, and it drove him crazy. Lots of people retired in place. He's back after a couple years. I had to look up 'Retired in Place'. This particular office does not seem to suffer from that. I have seen some that do, and ...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Will you still participate in Social Security? ... Pensions are great for those who stay to retire. The value can be much less with only a few years, as the formula will use the salary you were earning just prior to leaving -- not COLA adjusted to age 65. I will continue to fully participate in soc...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Point wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:29 am
I took the job and did both ;-) worked out well. Allowed me to control my future as pension did not- vesting, idiot bosses, underfunding.... And I invested on the side. Multiple sources, better outcomes.
Winky face notwithstanding, the situation presents itself as a true either or proposition.
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Mike Scott wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:26 am
If the long term financial benefits are similar, then which job do you prefer?
They are similar types of work. The trade offs basically balance out.
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

New job prospect. The biggest difference I can see is I would go from saving a substantial amount (for me anyway) every month in retirement accounts to saving very little outside employer/employee contributions to a well funded state pension. My master spreadsheet for retirement shows similar outcom...
by warowits
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can future tax laws change such that Roth IRA earnings are taxed in retirement?
Replies: 3
Views: 775

Re: Can future tax laws change such that Roth IRA earnings are taxed in retirement?

Yes. There would be a legal action immediately after. This is the sort of speculation I am guessing we are not supposed to engage in on this forum.
by warowits
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?
Replies: 45
Views: 10933

Re: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?

He says right there at the beginning that his central prediction is based on this theory that the dollar will go much much higher in 1-2 years. Its been about nine months since he made this prediction and the dollar is basically flat. We also have stopped raising rates, blowing up a key part of his ...
by warowits
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When your responsibility to your children ends?
Replies: 76
Views: 7664

Re: When your responsibility to your children ends?

I think your last big financial responsibility is transitioning them to providing for themselves. Depending on your ability that may mean helping with some or even all college/technical training costs. Past that you are likely doing more harm than good.
by warowits
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Predicting with CAPE
Replies: 24
Views: 2321

Re: Vanguard: Predicting with CAPE

the returns of U.S. stocks over the next ten years are likely to be below their historical averages because valuations are currently elevated. The most likely range of outcomes, according to our latest projections, is annualized returns of 4%–6% over the coming decade. Is this before or after infla...
by warowits
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 153
Views: 25118

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

you can set 1 mil as a milestone target. with 1 mil and proper investment to beat the inflation assuming you withdraw 3% , it would last 30 years of your retirement. Assuming you would also get 20k from SS, so the total $50k would get you some sort of "decent" retirement cost covered. But would thi...
by warowits
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does The 4% Rule Work Around The World?
Replies: 23
Views: 1697

Re: Does The 4% Rule Work Around The World?

I think most Bogleheads have implemented at least a somewhat globally-diversified portfolio, and put the 4% rule for 30+ years to bed a while ago. Now were' arguing over 2-something and 3-something. I don’t recall anyone seriously advocating 2 something. I can put my money 100% in tips and still be...
by warowits
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3331

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

Hello all, Wondering if I can seriously step down my income/work level at this point? I put it in my spread sheet, and as long as you do get 1% per year (and I would be extremely conservative with my investments in this scenario) you will make it to your wife's full retirement age with about 295K l...
by warowits
Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3331

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

Hello all, Wondering if I can seriously step down my income/work level at this point? I put it in my spread sheet, and as long as you do get 1% per year (and I would be extremely conservative with my investments in this scenario) you will make it to your wife's full retirement age with about 295K l...
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spending Moral Support
Replies: 19
Views: 1880

Re: Spending Moral Support

Lloydo wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:28 pm
Pretty sound I guess... $2.1MM at 45/55, no debt, $36k after tax pension, $100k current spend and $50k SS available at 66.5 Healthcare is included in current spend.

Thanks.

Lloyd
The math checks out. Happy retirement.
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents' finances a disaster waiting to happen? Seeking advice.
Replies: 105
Views: 11858

Re: Are my parents' finances a disaster waiting to happen? Seeking advice.

Depending on the survivor benefits of the pension and how they may handle a cola, your parents are likely in a better position financially than 90% of retired people. I don’t see anything to worry about.
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 18521

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

Notice that he didn't even get the relative returns right. Among six asset classes of stocks: --he forecasted that emerging markets would have the highest return. It had the lowest . --he forecasted that US small-caps would have the lowest return. It had the highest . Why do people pay any attentio...
by warowits
Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?
Replies: 18
Views: 1933

Re: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?

I'm interested in quantifying the rate at which an investor should be willing to borrow to max out a Roth account - please offer suggestions/modifications/criticisms of this back-of-the-envelope calculation. Basically, I'm curious about how to quantify the monetary value of the tax advantage of the...
by warowits
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I move to a high cost of living area?
Replies: 48
Views: 2597

Re: Should I move to a high cost of living area?

Your income is high enough you should really just decide where you prefer living.

That being said I have done the math and My income would have to triple for a move to the Bay Area to make any kind of sense(lcol—>hcol). 20% pay increase would be a very dramatic drop in quality of life for me.
by warowits
Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time taken to move from 4%to 3%?
Replies: 49
Views: 2992

Re: Time taken to move from 4%to 3%?

Even if it only takes 4 years to go from 25x expenses to 33x expenses, you still have lost 4 years of retirement. A 60 year old can expect on average to live to 81.5. While you are now less likely to run out of money (which wasn’t likely under 4%), on average you will have lost 18.6% of your retirem...
by warowits
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 117
Views: 9077

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

I am highly confident in the 4% rule to determine when you have enough to retire. The railing against 4% based on current valuations borders on a mental illness around here. Once you have enough though a variable percentage withdrawal method seems best for determining a ceiling on that years withdra...
by warowits
Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer wants to borrow $50k
Replies: 51
Views: 3170

Re: Employer wants to borrow $50k

...RED FLAG... +1 Don't be a fool. If a bank will not lend him the money with collateral, you shouldn't either. There are no amount of protections which would persuade me to do this. They know your husband well enough to ask for 50K personal loan, what are the chances your husband will be willing t...
by warowits
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??
Replies: 16
Views: 1320

Re: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??

I'm in the process of buying a house and taking on a mortgage. Tax deferred accounts/emergency/etc maximized. My question is with extra taxable money would you pay extra on the mortgage (30yr 4.25%) or invest in taxable market index funds (15+ year horizon) based on market valuation. My thoughts ar...