Search found 412 matches

by warowits
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1374

Re: Why is Tangible Book Value Dropping for US Stocks?

The issue is that companies are trading tangible book value for goodwill and increased earnings, but those earnings aren't enough to cover the lost tangible book value so the result is a steadily declining tangible book value. Again, this line of reasoning is entirely circular. I don't understand h...
by warowits
Mon May 27, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?
Replies: 34
Views: 4154

Re: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?

Why it failed would seem to be a combination of experiencing a long period of poor returns in stocks followed by severe inflation. If you move ahead to 1982 when inflation started to fall, real interest rates peaked, and a great bull market started, you get the best year to retire. A notable fact i...
by warowits
Thu May 16, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 8938

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

"how long will Amazon dominate" I dunno, but for reference: if we steer the olde time machine back to 1975ish, the three giants of American retail were JC Penny, Montgomery Wards, and Sears Roebuck. If you had invested $10k in Monkey Wards in 1975 ... it went bankrupt around 2001. If you had invest...
by warowits
Mon May 13, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10695

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

SS comes nowhere into my retirement planning. I am in my 30's. It will be either greatly reduced or have a significantly older eligibility age when it comes time for me to use it. That's a wise strategy. No, it isn’t. Sure SS may change, but it will be there. Even if is only worth 80% of what it is...
by warowits
Thu May 09, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?
Replies: 32
Views: 3774

Re: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?

What is Social Security's agenda? Immediate economic stimulus? No idea. Many non Bogleheads would view such a situation as a welcome windfall and I could see people at SS being excited to tell folks about this exciting opportunity! Why you would wait all the way until 70 and then do this I don’t re...
by warowits
Thu May 09, 2019 1:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?
Replies: 32
Views: 3774

Re: Why is Social Security pushing retroactive benefits?

Social security is actuarially neutral, in theory anyway. Shouldn’t really matter to them if you take it at 69.5 or 70.
by warowits
Wed May 01, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2449

Re: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement

Using a total return portfolio and the 3% rule... Also,I realize that the total return portfolio (60/40) would only yield an 85% chance of success. The 3% rule isn’t a thing. It is not based on anything that I am aware of, other than pessimism for the sake of pessimism, or a basis for bragging abou...
by warowits
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2449

Re: TIPs vs total return portfolio in retirement

Using a total return portfolio and the 3% rule... Also,I realize that the total return portfolio (60/40) would only yield an 85% chance of success. The 3% rule isn’t a thing. It is not based on anything that I am aware of, other than pessimism for the sake of pessimism, or a basis for bragging abou...
by warowits
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Get Customers for New, Small Catering Business
Replies: 10
Views: 615

Re: How to Get Customers for New, Small Catering Business

You have to be willing to work evenings, weekends and holidays. I have seen alot of people try to get into similar gigs for fun, or to pursue their passion or whatever, without understanding that 95% of the events will be evenings, weekends and holidays. Try to get hooked in with your local wedding ...
by warowits
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Pensions are great for those who stay to retire. The value can be much less with only a few years, as the formula will use the salary you were earning just prior to leaving -- not COLA adjusted to age 65. I checked up on this. You have to choose when you start if you want a full pension system (5 y...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

FWIW, a buddy took a public sector job, after a down turn in our private sector job, and it drove him crazy. Lots of people retired in place. He's back after a couple years. I had to look up 'Retired in Place'. This particular office does not seem to suffer from that. I have seen some that do, and ...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Will you still participate in Social Security? ... Pensions are great for those who stay to retire. The value can be much less with only a few years, as the formula will use the salary you were earning just prior to leaving -- not COLA adjusted to age 65. I will continue to fully participate in soc...
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Point wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:29 am
I took the job and did both ;-) worked out well. Allowed me to control my future as pension did not- vesting, idiot bosses, underfunding.... And I invested on the side. Multiple sources, better outcomes.
Winky face notwithstanding, the situation presents itself as a true either or proposition.
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

Mike Scott wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:26 am
If the long term financial benefits are similar, then which job do you prefer?
They are similar types of work. The trade offs basically balance out.
by warowits
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job offer, pension vs diy retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

New job offer, pension vs diy retirement

New job prospect. The biggest difference I can see is I would go from saving a substantial amount (for me anyway) every month in retirement accounts to saving very little outside employer/employee contributions to a well funded state pension. My master spreadsheet for retirement shows similar outcom...
by warowits
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can future tax laws change such that Roth IRA earnings are taxed in retirement?
Replies: 3
Views: 728

Re: Can future tax laws change such that Roth IRA earnings are taxed in retirement?

Yes. There would be a legal action immediately after. This is the sort of speculation I am guessing we are not supposed to engage in on this forum.
by warowits
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?
Replies: 44
Views: 6706

Re: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?

He says right there at the beginning that his central prediction is based on this theory that the dollar will go much much higher in 1-2 years. Its been about nine months since he made this prediction and the dollar is basically flat. We also have stopped raising rates, blowing up a key part of his ...
by warowits
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When your responsibility to your children ends?
Replies: 76
Views: 7013

Re: When your responsibility to your children ends?

I think your last big financial responsibility is transitioning them to providing for themselves. Depending on your ability that may mean helping with some or even all college/technical training costs. Past that you are likely doing more harm than good.
by warowits
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Predicting with CAPE
Replies: 24
Views: 2031

Re: Vanguard: Predicting with CAPE

the returns of U.S. stocks over the next ten years are likely to be below their historical averages because valuations are currently elevated. The most likely range of outcomes, according to our latest projections, is annualized returns of 4%–6% over the coming decade. Is this before or after infla...
by warowits
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement
Replies: 153
Views: 23900

Re: Is a million really the benchmark for retirement

you can set 1 mil as a milestone target. with 1 mil and proper investment to beat the inflation assuming you withdraw 3% , it would last 30 years of your retirement. Assuming you would also get 20k from SS, so the total $50k would get you some sort of "decent" retirement cost covered. But would thi...
by warowits
Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does The 4% Rule Work Around The World?
Replies: 23
Views: 1532

Re: Does The 4% Rule Work Around The World?

I think most Bogleheads have implemented at least a somewhat globally-diversified portfolio, and put the 4% rule for 30+ years to bed a while ago. Now were' arguing over 2-something and 3-something. I don’t recall anyone seriously advocating 2 something. I can put my money 100% in tips and still be...
by warowits
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3058

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

Hello all, Wondering if I can seriously step down my income/work level at this point? I put it in my spread sheet, and as long as you do get 1% per year (and I would be extremely conservative with my investments in this scenario) you will make it to your wife's full retirement age with about 295K l...
by warowits
Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.
Replies: 24
Views: 3058

Re: Can I retire? Looking for math help here.

Hello all, Wondering if I can seriously step down my income/work level at this point? I put it in my spread sheet, and as long as you do get 1% per year (and I would be extremely conservative with my investments in this scenario) you will make it to your wife's full retirement age with about 295K l...
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spending Moral Support
Replies: 19
Views: 1754

Re: Spending Moral Support

Lloydo wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:28 pm
Pretty sound I guess... $2.1MM at 45/55, no debt, $36k after tax pension, $100k current spend and $50k SS available at 66.5 Healthcare is included in current spend.

Thanks.

Lloyd
The math checks out. Happy retirement.
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents' finances a disaster waiting to happen? Seeking advice.
Replies: 105
Views: 10853

Re: Are my parents' finances a disaster waiting to happen? Seeking advice.

Depending on the survivor benefits of the pension and how they may handle a cola, your parents are likely in a better position financially than 90% of retired people. I don’t see anything to worry about.
by warowits
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades
Replies: 173
Views: 17055

Re: Grantham: US will return 2% real next 2 decades

Notice that he didn't even get the relative returns right. Among six asset classes of stocks: --he forecasted that emerging markets would have the highest return. It had the lowest . --he forecasted that US small-caps would have the lowest return. It had the highest . Why do people pay any attentio...
by warowits
Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?
Replies: 18
Views: 1751

Re: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?

I'm interested in quantifying the rate at which an investor should be willing to borrow to max out a Roth account - please offer suggestions/modifications/criticisms of this back-of-the-envelope calculation. Basically, I'm curious about how to quantify the monetary value of the tax advantage of the...
by warowits
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I move to a high cost of living area?
Replies: 48
Views: 2421

Re: Should I move to a high cost of living area?

Your income is high enough you should really just decide where you prefer living.

That being said I have done the math and My income would have to triple for a move to the Bay Area to make any kind of sense(lcol—>hcol). 20% pay increase would be a very dramatic drop in quality of life for me.
by warowits
Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time taken to move from 4%to 3%?
Replies: 49
Views: 2812

Re: Time taken to move from 4%to 3%?

Even if it only takes 4 years to go from 25x expenses to 33x expenses, you still have lost 4 years of retirement. A 60 year old can expect on average to live to 81.5. While you are now less likely to run out of money (which wasn’t likely under 4%), on average you will have lost 18.6% of your retirem...
by warowits
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 117
Views: 8276

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

I am highly confident in the 4% rule to determine when you have enough to retire. The railing against 4% based on current valuations borders on a mental illness around here. Once you have enough though a variable percentage withdrawal method seems best for determining a ceiling on that years withdra...
by warowits
Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer wants to borrow $50k
Replies: 51
Views: 2865

Re: Employer wants to borrow $50k

...RED FLAG... +1 Don't be a fool. If a bank will not lend him the money with collateral, you shouldn't either. There are no amount of protections which would persuade me to do this. They know your husband well enough to ask for 50K personal loan, what are the chances your husband will be willing t...
by warowits
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??
Replies: 16
Views: 1247

Re: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??

I'm in the process of buying a house and taking on a mortgage. Tax deferred accounts/emergency/etc maximized. My question is with extra taxable money would you pay extra on the mortgage (30yr 4.25%) or invest in taxable market index funds (15+ year horizon) based on market valuation. My thoughts ar...
by warowits
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??
Replies: 16
Views: 1247

Re: Can I time the market by paying down mortgage vs buying stocks ??

I'm in the process of buying a house and taking on a mortgage. Tax deferred accounts/emergency/etc maximized. My question is with extra taxable money would you pay extra on the mortgage (30yr 4.25%) or invest in taxable market index funds (15+ year horizon) based on market valuation. My thoughts ar...
by warowits
Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would your retirement strategy be in my case? (UPDATED info)
Replies: 14
Views: 1448

Re: What would your retirement strategy be in my case? (UPDATED info)

I assume we'll need to pull Roth contributions until we hit 59 1/2, then hit social security at 62, then the 401ks after that? Withdrawals are tax-free after the Roth is 5 years old AND you are over 59.5. If one or both of those aren't true, there will be penalties. If you start SS at 62, you will ...
by warowits
Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 517
Views: 36541

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

No Its the same, its just as easy for me to cut back because I'm use to living on less. Let's say I like to play golf 5 times a month and one of those rounds at a high end course. I just cut back to 3 times with no high end course. Just as someone with 5 million has a 50K a year golf club membershi...
by warowits
Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please critique my plan for early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 5146

Re: Please critique my plan for early retirement

I maybe wrong but I would certainly would want to have enough resources to to be financially independent before I declared my early retirement (which you don’t). I wouldn’t even get into issues of marriage, deaths and other family dynamics. Tough it out your on the right path for financial independ...
by warowits
Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 517
Views: 36541

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

But then would add that US has been what has been called the triumph of the optimists (the winner) and while 4% might have worked in past looking at historical data, you would find in other countries (i.e. Japan say starting in 1990, with Nikkei now at about half what it was then) that it did not w...
by warowits
Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?
Replies: 90
Views: 12598

Re: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?

Also worth noting is a fixed withdrawal rate is an odd way to do it in the real world. The VPW in the wiki makes more sense for an individual, but if it’s for perpetuity I would say pick a number like 3.5% and do not adjust for inflation. 3.5% NOT adjusted for inflation becomes a big problem after ...
by warowits
Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?
Replies: 90
Views: 12598

Re: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?

Also worth noting is a fixed withdrawal rate is an odd way to do it in the real world. The VPW in the wiki makes more sense for an individual, but if it’s for perpetuity I would say pick a number like 3.5% and do not adjust for inflation.
by warowits
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intro and Personal Finance Advice
Replies: 55
Views: 5276

Re: Intro and Personal Finance Advice

I would focus everything on debt until you don't have any interest rates above about 5.5%. Just make sure you aren't missing any matching money through work. Once those credit cards are paid off I would cut them up (maybe even before they are paid off). Carrying a balance on a credit card needs to b...
by warowits
Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?
Replies: 90
Views: 12598

Re: How much do you need to live on 200k/ year forever?

We need to stop the 2% fearmongering on this website where people come for authoritative advice from well-informed investors. I agree, but it won't happen. Some people spend their lives building indestructible financial castles. And if that's your thing then great, but don't pretend like you are ju...
by warowits
Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will there be a slide in quality now that Mr. Bogle has died?
Replies: 17
Views: 2031

Re: Will there be a slide in quality now that Mr. Bogle has died?

I the inaugural episode of Bogleheads on investing Jack addresses this directly. He didn't have anything to do with running the company, and hasn't for a long time.

https://bogleheads.podbean.com/e/bogleh ... ick-ferri/
by warowits
Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Helping Kids with Home Purchase
Replies: 77
Views: 6013

Re: Helping Kids with Home Purchase

For the heck of it I just did a quick check to see how large a home loan a bank would approve someone in my situation for. It is literally insane. Then thinking about how much more I could get if I had an additional co-signing parent... But I see you have come to your senses already. If it is just a...
by warowits
Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against equity in early stage?
Replies: 75
Views: 3624

Re: Argument against equity in early stage?

warowits, I live in a very affluent neighborhood. The annual median household income is 150K. 30% of the high school students in the neighborhood high school qualify for the school lunch assistance program. George Mason University in this area is running a food pantry for its starving students. htt...
by warowits
Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against equity in early stage?
Replies: 75
Views: 3624

Re: Argument against equity in early stage?

warowits, <<In my experience people unemployed for more than 6 or 7 months are holding out for something better, not just unable to find work.>> How old are you? How much do you get paid? <<yet their families do not starve when they lose their jobs, not in the United States anyway. >> Really? Are t...
by warowits
Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against equity in early stage?
Replies: 75
Views: 3624

Re: Argument against equity in early stage?

I don’t know that I have ever heard anyone give this advice. If I did manage to save five years of emergency fund money, I doubt I would have the courage to spend it if I were actually unemployed for longer than 6 months. Certainly after 18 months I would have to stop, warowits, If you do not spend...
by warowits
Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against equity in early stage?
Replies: 75
Views: 3624

Re: Argument against equity in early stage?

Dear BHs Assuming the target is 20-30 age. Observation: Young folks are encouraged to save (and invest) as early as they can to capitalize on the compounding return. Heuristic: One should save at least 5 years of expense and keep them in safe instruments to weather the possible recession. Problem: ...
by warowits
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?
Replies: 19
Views: 1893

Re: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?

yep, asif408 is correct. here's the evidence: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Domestic/International 70/30 (US/international) appears to be on the efficient frontier (highest return per unit of risk). I am no longer pulling my AA out of thin air, I am now on the efficient frontier! Of course the nu...
by warowits
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washington State Solar Incentives
Replies: 18
Views: 1017

Re: Washington State Solar Incentives

True, but one would think that those long summer days, in Western Washington, would have less electrical demand. For one there is a diminished need for lighting, and air conditioning can be accomplished by opening a window. Here in FL we burn through electric in the summer, but during my time in Wa...
by warowits
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 158
Views: 16310

Re: Who Will Speak for US?

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:11 am
Rick Ferri.
He literally speaks for us, on the Bogleheads on investing podcast.

Then there is Taylor of course, who Jack referred to as king of the Bogleheads.

And the Forum warriors like Livesoft and many others.