Search found 4790 matches

by alfaspider
Wed Mar 27, 2024 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle
Replies: 24
Views: 1524

Re: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle

Cooling of the second floor is adequate but not great. This may depend on your ducts and airflow. (Our system already had problems getting air to the upper story.) I might eventually add a mini-split for the upstairs bedroom, or look into upgrading the ducts. Exactly why we looked into mini-splits. Was told that the standard heat pumps only work well down to about 30F... so either need to keep the furnace in place, or upgrade to a higher end (mitsubishi?) heat pump, or one that has a backup electric heater / (coils?) That’s likely BS. Ex. https://daikincomfort.com/products/heating-cooling/whole-house/heat-pumps/daikin-fit-heat-pump Good to -10f. Share what models were quoted so you can get a better answer. It's not BS. Budget model heat pu...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle
Replies: 24
Views: 1524

Re: AC or Heat Pump in Seattle

I'm a little confused as to why getting rid of the gas furnace costs more than keeping it. Are these different models being quoted? Given Seattle's relatively mild climate, you aren't ever going to need a gas furnace to get sufficient heat. Modern heat pumps will work fine in well below freezing temps. Only places that see well below zero temps need to consider retaining gas to keep the house warm. The only reason to keep it is if you think electricity prices might rise significantly compared to gas prices. A gas heater won't run in a power outage because it relies on an electric fan to move air. Since the pacific northwest tends to have relatively inexpensive electricity, the math probably favors the heat pump provided its a reasonably eff...
by alfaspider
Thu Mar 21, 2024 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 210
Views: 23822

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

I knew someone whose ex husband tried to steal her 401k. I know someone else whose ex wife was entitled to half his pension. I know someone else whose ex husband and accountant almost stole her successful business. I know another person whose ex’s affluent family intentionally bankrupted him through litigation. So there were a lot of unexpected legal expenses in those battles. I knew people who owned a lot of company stock and had high positions in that company but it failed. Right. And it's interesting that your extreme examples almost all had to do with unexpected family dynamics. Given the high divorce rate, I suspect that could be the most common reason that "well-prepared" retirees run out of money. One member of the couple ...
by alfaspider
Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

"Do you think sellers should be paying 50,60,70, 80,000 to realtors for selling a house that is on the market for a week or two or three?" People in these situations are free to sell on their own. "You are right. Way too much time to simply say they are overpaid." Average realtors are like average everyone else - not overpaid. Its fairly easy to look up average realtor pay levels. It's not that realtors don't work hard. Any successful realtor almost certainly does. The problem is they spent most of their time and spend a lot of money doing activities that constitute deadweight economic loss. All the time they are spending looking for new clients and advertising for themselves (instead of properties) is deadweight loss. ...
by alfaspider
Wed Mar 20, 2024 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Tesla shoppers: Quality?
Replies: 48
Views: 3787

Re: Used Tesla shoppers: Quality?

Hertz is dumping 20,000 of them because of their high cost of repairs and low resale value. And the CEO is losing his job over it. Consequences of very poor decision- he deserves to be fired. Didn't they buy 100,000? And are they keeping 80,000? Maybe more people need to be fired? I think rentals are one of the very worst use cases for electric cars. If you buy a car, you probably already have a plan for charging it (most likely you can charge at home) and you probably have a certain amount of driving in mind (i.e. your regular commute). Car renters are typically in unfamiliar places and often drive a long way from the place they rented. Teslas also have very different interfaces than what most consumers are used to and will take a learnin...
by alfaspider
Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 210
Views: 23822

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

This thread is vulnerable to the "no true Scotsman" fallacy. People can rationalize that anybody who ran out of money wasn't well-prepared. However, one way a well-prepared and sober-minded person can waste a sizable retirement nest egg is through cognitive decline causing diminished capacity to manage financial assets. A friend of mine experienced this with his parents. His father was an heir to a substantial family fortune and they were very well off. However, after a car accident it was clear that his mid-70s father was experiencing dementia. It had been less obvious to a lot of people because English was his third language and he always had a funny way of speaking even as a younger man. Prior to that, the family had little vis...
by alfaspider
Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

Way too much thought and time into these posts. It's really simple if the market is that easy. Negotiate a commision that is acceptable and/or FSBO the home. You are right. Way too much time to simply say they are overpaid. Do you think sellers should be paying 50,60,70, 80,000 to realtors for selling a house that is on the market for a week or two or three? I clearly don’t. The system was created and people just got use to it and on it went to the point of absurdity in some cases. "Do you think sellers should be paying 50,60,70, 80,000 to realtors for selling a house that is on the market for a week or two or three?" People in these situations are free to sell on their own. "You are right. Way too much time to simply say th...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?
Replies: 58
Views: 5237

Re: How worthwhile is Zillow to estimate home value?

Zillow works better if you live in a neighborhood with a lot of similar homes. If you live in a master-planned community of 200 homes built between 2000 and 2005 with 5 different basic floor plans between 2,000 and 3,000 sq ft. on identically sized and similarly-situated lots, you can probably get a pretty good idea of what your home is worth. If you live in an older neighborhood that has homes build between 1960 and 2023 with no identical homes and square footage from 1,500sq ft. to 5,000sq ft on lots between .25acre and 2 acres, it's probably going to be all over the place. I'd also note that even professional appraisals aren't necessarily great. In my experience, appraisers tend to be optimistic because they are usually being retained in...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 19, 2024 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

That is great - just do a FSBO then. The problem with the FSBO is under the traditional commission structure, you are still on the hook for the 3% Buyer's commission. In fact, it's always been the buyer's commission side that bothers me. The core problem is that the "seller pays" model both reduces the buyer's incentive to do anything to economize (or for agents to compete on pricing) and also discourages FSBO because the seller is still paying a percentage commission no-matter what. Even if the buyer doesn't actually have an agent, they will expect a 3% price cut. I agree that flat rate makes a lot of sense. We actually found a flat-rate seller's agent when we sold our first house, and there are some out there (but we were still...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 19, 2024 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

That is great - just do a FSBO then. Last comment on this but I am not selling my house. My point was realtor commissions are excessive and way overpaid in the Bay Area for the work being performed and the education and skill level required to perform that job. One has to really hustle and put in a lot of time to get listings but the actual skills and education required to list and sell are not at a level even close to what the pay is. The main skill is how good you are at getting the listings and a customer should not being paying for that in my opinion. I am done. Way too much thought and time into these posts. It's really simple if the market is that easy. Negotiate a commision that is acceptable and/or FSBO the home. You are right. Way...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 19, 2024 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

Yes - of course. You can FSBO a home, car, boat, business, etc. Or you can hire on brokers to do the same thing. Once you have done both you may or may not decide to engage a broker in the future. In my business I owned for 23 years I worked with many realtors because I provided a service they used to get homes ready for sale. I have also bought and sold 7 homes so I know a little bit about what realtors do. I will say it again and it is my opinion but it is ridiculous for a person to pay the commissions on homes in hcol areas. The house across the street just sold in one week for well over a million. I get my mailbox flooded with constant flyers about sold in one week for 1.5 M!!! The job is only tough because so many people want to do it...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

illumination wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:22 pm

Maybe next we can look at reforming Title Insurance. :sharebeer
Yes! Besides the buyer's agent, the egregious cost of title insurance was the other thing that bothered me. The cost is totally divorced from the actual risk the title company takes.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 18, 2024 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?
Replies: 120
Views: 9450

Re: Which industry will benefit from new real estate commission fee structure?

"If I put our home for sale in California for say 1.2 M it would sell in one weekend." Just do a FSBO then. Or use a flat fee or low commission broker to get your property on the MLS. Commissions have already been negotiable. There are listing agents who will list properties for less than the "standard" 6 percent. Just don't expect the same level of service and advice on either end of the transaction. Yes - of course. You can FSBO a home, car, boat, business, etc. Or you can hire on brokers to do the same thing. Once you have done both you may or may not decide to engage a broker in the future. In my business I owned for 23 years I worked with many realtors because I provided a service they used to get homes ready for s...
by alfaspider
Fri Mar 08, 2024 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What would you have done differently if you could go back and restart your financial journey?
Replies: 68
Views: 5913

Re: What would you have done differently if you could go back and restart your financial journey?

Put all my money in bitcoin circa 2010 :wink:


In seriousness, I can't think of any major mistakes I made early in my saving/investing that were reasonably foreseeable. There are always things that could have been done a bit better, but most of them only look good with the benefit of hindsight. I could have invested a little bit in my teens and early 20s instead of indulging on hobbies, but I think those memories are worth more than an extra $50k would be to me today. And heck, I still ride the road bike I bought when I was 21.
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11958

Re: Mid-career change to law?

Realistically, Big Law will not touch a middle age grad. But there are an awful lot of ways to make $300+ per hour as an attorney. Keep your overhead down and it spends. My brother in law’s practice is constrained to about $200 per hour. But he built a good book of business, has four associates and a paralegal working for him and spends most of his time managing. And you have control of your own little business and call your shots. Law isn’t terrible if you do it right. Law isn't bad if you have a steady book of your own business like that. But realistically, it takes a decade or more to build that book. No sophisticated client would touch a fresh lawyer in most practice areas, so you typically have to spend a lot of time working for someo...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11958

Re: Mid-career change to law?

FYI, most US Law Schools turned into a complete scam, and a flat-out joke, about 15 years ago. There are 10 (TEN) ABA-accredited law schools in the state of Pennsylvania, 8 in Virginia, and 6 in tiny D.C. There might, just possibly, be enough jobs for the graduates of one law school in each jurisdiction, each year. PA is generating probably 1,500 new JD's every 12 months, perhaps somewhat more or less depending on class size. . . and the legal job market is already profoundly over-saturated, and has been for at least the last 20 years. Licensed attorneys compete to work on "Temporary Document Review Projects" for as little as $22.00 per hour. You're free to make the same mistake thousands of other people are making, but don't say...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11958

Re: Mid-career change to law?

Realistically, Big Law will not touch a middle age grad. But there are an awful lot of ways to make $300+ per hour as an attorney. Keep your overhead down and it spends. My brother in law’s practice is constrained to about $200 per hour. But he built a good book of business, has four associates and a paralegal working for him and spends most of his time managing. And you have control of your own little business and call your shots. Law isn’t terrible if you do it right. Law isn't bad if you have a steady book of your own business like that. But realistically, it takes a decade or more to build that book. No sophisticated client would touch a fresh lawyer in most practice areas, so you typically have to spend a lot of time working for someo...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11958

Re: Mid-career change to law?

While big law partners average over $1 million a year, you’re looking at three years of law school plus about seven years of practice to get there. There are of course other options besides big law. This depends a lot on how you define "BigLaw," but I don't believe the average pay for an AmLaw 200 or even AmLaw 100 partner is over $1m. It's certainly true if you are talking about equity partners at AmLaw 50 firms, but the number of equity partners is smaller than ever and nearly every firm has a large contract partner tier where comp even at many top firms is nowhere near $1m. I know contract partners at AmLaw 100 firms making $300k (with 1800 hour billing requirements). Profits per equity partner is the traditional metric but it...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plateaued with my 45 minute workout - Age 47
Replies: 90
Views: 7894

Re: Plateaued with my 45 minute workout - Age 47

As much as Bogleheads like to DIY, I really recommend talking to a good physical therapist or a good trainer. Fitness after 40 gets more complex, and if you don't want to make a study of it you should really talk to a pro. Finding a good one will be research enough. I'd caution that just walking into any commercial gym and asking for a "trainer" is not necessarily going to get you the best plan. The barrier to entry for personal training is quite low and very little real-world experience or knowledge is required to pass a certification exam. Like investment advisors, there are plenty of charlatans out there. Physical therapists obviously have a higher bar, but their training is focused more on recovery from injury rather than fit...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

I think the key is having been there for 27 years and 14 years in your current residents. Old entrants to the market bought in much cheaper than new entrants would. You'd be stretching to afford your current house on $450-700k. Yes, we did buy it for $800k when the interest rates were a bit lower. It's paid off now. We still spend about $120k/year (excluding payroll taxes). A good half of that is house-related (property taxes, maintenance, insurance, utilities). Someone putting 20% down would have a $1.6M mortgage around 6.83% according to Google, or $10463/month. That's about $125k. So you would be looking at about $250k in annual spending. Gross household income of $350-$400k would certainly work. $450k - $700k would be way more than eno...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

I'm still doubtful of the 2000A service. A 240V panel rated for 2000A is approximately $35-55,000, and the main breaker alone is over $20k. One of the standard ways to feed such a box would be seven parallel runs of this wire per phase (21 conductors total for 240V split phase): ... It's good to be skeptical but that is the service. I have verified it myself and had a team of 3 electricians out to work on it including one specifically selected for his industrial experience. I wish it were smaller, believe me! If that's true, there has to be some story behind this. Is your property zoned industrial? Previous owner running a cryptocurrency mining operation? I can't imagine anybody dropping the coin for that sort of a service without an extre...
by alfaspider
Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plateaued with my 45 minute workout - Age 47
Replies: 90
Views: 7894

Re: Plateaued with my 45 minute workout - Age 47

The way training makes you stronger is through "progressive overload." You have to slowly increase the load on the body and let it adapt. However, at some point everyone hits a plateau and can no longer increase without causing injury. In your case, the problem is trying to do a cardio and strength full body workout each workout. After you get to a certain level, your body needs more recovery time for each body part worked and you need fore focus on a specific muscle group. For example, many weight lifters split their workouts into a "push", a "pull", and a legs day. You spend your 45 minutes focusing intensely on pushing a muscle group hard. So, for example, push daylight be bench press, chest flys, tricep ext...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

Question: is there a way to safely provide automatic transfer switch power to only a portion of the house, eg. only select fuse panels to exclude all the pool/spa/steam/sauna equipment? Has anyone done this? Yes, but you'll probably need to do a very significant amount of rewiring to separate your critical loads into their own subpanels. It may be very involved if the subpanels are very far from the main. You may have to open a lot of walls, or run electrical conduit on the outside. It's a lot simpler to size your generator for all your loads. 100 kW sounds like a lot, though. We have a home with many of the same features, plus two EVs, with 200amp service. I'm assuming your panel is 400amps. Our peak load almost never exceeds 20 kW, and t...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

There is no way you need 100kw. In a 3,500 sq ft running 2 fridges, 3 a/c units (including in an uninsulated garage), on a 100 degree day while doing laundry I max out at 15kw load (I have real time monitoring through my solar system). My A/C units are inverter variable (so no "hard start"). Even if your house is much larger, I can't see more than 40kw ever being needed. Actually, some of the loads OP mentioned can be very high. My hot tub uses about 8 kW. Sauna another 8 kW. EV is 7.6 kW. PHEV is 3.3 kW. Dryer peaks at 6kW. Dishwasher 1.5 kW. Microwave 1.8 kW. Base load about 1kW. 2 AC units about 8 kW. Induction cooktop 6 kW Double oven 8 kW. It all adds, and if we were to run all of them simultaneously, we would get close to t...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

madbrain wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:13 pm
faanger101 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:27 am I had an interesting talk with few of my CA coworkers.
Folks with HHI in 450-700k range still can't afford a decent place. All are renting.
I have never made anywhere near that much and been living in the bay area for 27 years. 14 of them in a very nice mansion in the hills. Currently estimate the home value is about $2M. Safe neighborhood. Crap schools. But we don't have kids.
I think the key is having been there for 27 years and 14 years in your current residents. Old entrants to the market bought in much cheaper than new entrants would. You'd be stretching to afford your current house on $450-700k.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

I had an interesting talk with few of my CA coworkers. Folks with HHI in 450-700k range still can't afford a decent place. All are renting. For us, it wasn't a question of whether or not we could afford it, it was just cheaper to rent. For what period of time? My current mortgage is 4 times cheaper than the rent, but we started it from being 20% more expensive :sharebeer Over very long timeframes, buying can come ahead of renting in almost any locale (unless you are in a city like Detroit that experiences a secular decline). But that has to be weighed against the opportunity cost during the period when it is more expensive. Bingo! Literally what you said is 'don't try to time the market' :sharebeer I don't think that's quite what I said, b...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

I've gotten board where I live and am thinking about moving to San Diego. It looks like a fun, healthier lifestyle. Is this affordable at all? Any idea for how to navigate costs, and what annual income would be necessary to live a "middle class" lifestyle, would be appreciated. I am thinking of the Little italy area, assuming it can all work out. My daughter is making 227K a year and could not afford to buy a decent place in SD. 1.5M gets you a nice condo but a rundown house. I had an interesting talk with few of my CA coworkers. Folks with HHI in 450-700k range still can't afford a decent place. All are renting. For us, it wasn't a question of whether or not we could afford it, it was just cheaper to rent. For what period of tim...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college
Replies: 48
Views: 3862

Re: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college

I think it would have to be based on needs. There's no reason why a 19 year old needs to buy a house, so I don't see a compelling reason to proactively offer downpayment assistance. However, I could see offering support to help get a business off the ground (for example, starting a plumbing business after a plumbing apprenticeship) as that's fairly equivalent to the type of assistance one might give for college. We have a son who started a lawn mowing business at 11 (now 19, almost 20), and has grown it a lot now doing full on landscaping and irrigation work. We had an idea he would be more entrepreneurial like we are and decided not to go to college. We will help him with a down payment on a house which has land and no HOA so he can store...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

My daughter is making 227K a year and could not afford to buy a decent place in SD. 1.5M gets you a nice condo but a rundown house. I had an interesting talk with few of my CA coworkers. Folks with HHI in 450-700k range still can't afford a decent place. All are renting. For us, it wasn't a question of whether or not we could afford it, it was just cheaper to rent. When I ran the numbers on two identical units, it would have been five years before interest, taxes and HOA were less than rent. And the HOA was raised shortly after we moved in, but we had a two year contract. In our immediate neighborhood a 3 bedroom SFH often rented for the same as a 2 bedroom apartment. A one bedroom apartment was often only 10% less than a two bedroom and I...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

I've gotten board where I live and am thinking about moving to San Diego. It looks like a fun, healthier lifestyle. Is this affordable at all? Any idea for how to navigate costs, and what annual income would be necessary to live a "middle class" lifestyle, would be appreciated. I am thinking of the Little italy area, assuming it can all work out. My daughter is making 227K a year and could not afford to buy a decent place in SD. 1.5M gets you a nice condo but a rundown house. I had an interesting talk with few of my CA coworkers. Folks with HHI in 450-700k range still can't afford a decent place. All are renting. For us, it wasn't a question of whether or not we could afford it, it was just cheaper to rent. When I ran the numbers...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

SteelyEyed wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:49 am In the event of an outage, do you really need the power to be restored automatically? Accept a five-minute delay and just do it they way did in the Navy. In the event of a need to operate with reduced power, go manually open a predetermined list of breakers to prevent their loads from starting.
It may not be safe to go outside to get a generator going if the outage occurs due to a storm. We tend to get outages due to hurricanes, and I know of nobody who runs a portable generator until after the storm is over. But a whole house generation would simply kick on automatically to give you power during the storm.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area
Replies: 77
Views: 8196

Re: Moving to San Diego from Sleepy Low Cost Area

My spouse has family in San Diego we visit from time to time. They live in a 1,200sq ft bungalow in a decent (but far from fancy) neighborhood. Similar houses are listed in the 1-1.5MM range. I can't fathom paying $6,500/mo before taxes (assuming ~7% interest rate) to live in a place like that. It would be difficult to get a single-family home for 4 on less than $300k/yr there. Obviously, a single person just looking for a basic condo can do with a lot less, but it's still a very pricey proposition.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college
Replies: 48
Views: 3862

Re: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college

I think it would have to be based on needs. There's no reason why a 19 year old needs to buy a house, so I don't see a compelling reason to proactively offer downpayment assistance. However, I could see offering support to help get a business off the ground (for example, starting a plumbing business after a plumbing apprenticeship) as that's fairly equivalent to the type of assistance one might give for college.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6706

Re: Question about Solar panels

If your primary motivation is outages, a generator is probably your lowest cost approach. Look for a less noisy one and see if it can work in a "doghouse" to help muffle sound. You can have battery backup and the amount of things you want plugged in and the length of time determine the number of batteries. A portable generator is of course the cheapest solution, but it's not a 1:1 comparison. Portable generators require storing gasoline (which would need to be refreshed from time to time) and are less reliable. They need to be manually started in the case of an outage (so, for example, they couldn't stop your food from going bad in the refrigerator if an outage happens while you are away). You still need to have electrical work d...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6706

Re: Question about Solar panels

I did some analysis on payback when evaluating my home system. Here's my math: -System cost: $23,100 after tax credits -Expected to generate 10,300 kWh / yr (this is the key metric, not the rated DC/AC size) -Retail electricity cost: $0.37/kWh (full net metering in MA, so usage and production offset 1:1 over year) -Electricity value / yr: $3,800 -SREC value: $0.03/kWh (MA subsidy) = $309 -Total Annual Revenue: ~$4,100 -Payback Period: 5.6 years -Usable life: ~30 years -Potential Revenue: $123K -Actual IRR: Guessing 10-15%* So not terrible! *depending on lifespan of system (house is only a few years old, so roof should be good for a while), inverter lifespan, etc. Note there's some degradation in panels (spec is 0.25%/yr), but I expect elec...
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undersizing whole house generator?
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: Undersizing whole house generator?

There is no way you need 100kw. In a 3,500 sq ft running 2 fridges, 3 a/c units (including in an uninsulated garage), on a 100 degree day while doing laundry I max out at 15kw load (I have real time monitoring through my solar system). My A/C units are inverter variable (so no "hard start"). Even if your house is much larger, I can't see more than 40kw ever being needed.
by alfaspider
Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6706

Re: Question about Solar panels

I have an 8kw system with a Powerwall+. Total installed cost was around $20k with the tax credit. Break even at 15cent/kwh is roughly 12 years on solar itself and 17 with the power wall. The power wall for me was more in lieu of a whole house generator, which would have cost ~$15k all-in so I view its economics differently. The power wall can power the whole house, but only one A/C unit (and not very long unless it is sunny). Without A/C the panels and power wall can more or less provide all my power (3500sq ft) if the days are sunny. 20kw is huge. A lot of houses don't have enough roof space for that. Also, I'd be wary about installing substantially more generation than you might use is a given month. I have net metering, but it's on a mo...
by alfaspider
Sun Mar 03, 2024 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6706

Re: Question about Solar panels

I have an 8kw system with a Powerwall+. Total installed cost was around $20k with the tax credit. Break even at 15cent/kwh is roughly 12 years on solar itself and 17 with the power wall. The power wall for me was more in lieu of a whole house generator, which would have cost ~$15k all-in so I view its economics differently. The power wall can power the whole house, but only one A/C unit (and not very long unless it is sunny). Without A/C the panels and power wall can more or less provide all my power (3500sq ft) if the days are sunny. 20kw is huge. A lot of houses don't have enough roof space for that. Also, I'd be wary about installing substantially more generation than you might use is a given month. I have net metering, but it's on a mon...
by alfaspider
Fri Mar 01, 2024 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11958

Re: Mid-career change to law?

Happy lawyer here. I wouldn't do it unless you can go at night while maintaining your current job and your sanity. Even then, I don't think I'd try to climb the ranks as a junior lawyer. Legal salaries are heavily bi-modal. Either you make ~$225k to start or more like $60k, with not a lot in-beteeen. To get the upper mode, you need to have gone to a top 14(ish) law school and/or be very top of your class (at lower ranked schools, that may require being one of the top two or three). Roughly 10-15% lawyers make that top mode to start. If you are in the top mode, you'll match your prior salary by about year 5 (or 8 years after starting law school). But here is the problem: the whole business model is built around working a bunch of eager 25 ye...
by alfaspider
Wed Feb 28, 2024 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
Replies: 93
Views: 11836

Re: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?

I assume this refers to earned income as opposed to income from investments.

The easiest way for this to happen is to have a very long retirement where your nest egg continues to grow throughout. If you are still working and your income is still increasing, your "lifetime earnings" is a moving target.
by alfaspider
Wed Feb 28, 2024 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees apparently tend to maintain assets - lessons for BH investors?
Replies: 129
Views: 17349

Re: Retirees apparently tend to maintain assets - lessons for BH investors?

So the link brings me-to cfiresim.com. The only question I have is what years are in the historical data it uses. I particularly want to know if the the Great Depression is included. Yes, see the x-axis of the graph: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lww3d24cc59cffs38uomc/4-percent-SWR-graph.png?rlkey=e44ctyi4ggsvs4cnzsja66o96&raw=1 It uses Shiller's data. Why are you particularly interested in the Great Depression? There are worse times to retire, like in 1906 just before the bank panic of 1907 , or in 1966 at the start of the 1960s & 1970s stagflation . It's an interesting illustration of "sequence of return" risk. The portfolios that zeroed out in the 1980s under the 4% rule didn't zero out until well after the market had...
by alfaspider
Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?
Replies: 45
Views: 6372

Re: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?

Kind of worthless without indexing to income and expense, and doubly so if you have other retirement accounts besides your 401k. Someone with a pension is in different shape from someone intending to rely soely on the 401k. For higher income people, how much you have is as much a product of how your plan is structured. Does your plan allow the mega backdoor Roth? Does your mega backdoor Roth money stay in-plan, or do you need to roll it into a separate Roth account? For example, the balance of my 401k just dropped by over $150k. Did I make some bad investment or blow it on something stupid? Of course not, I simply rolled my in-service Roth money to my separate Roth IRA to take advantage of a brokerage transfer bonus.
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Swim Mask
Replies: 14
Views: 1867

Re: Swim Mask

I'm not sure what your budget it, but I find there's a big difference in quality once you get to the ~$75 level. The silicone is much more supple on higher-end masks and less likely to leak. I have had good luck with the "Tidal" brand at that price point.
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Might need to replace car: are used Tesla's the value play right now?
Replies: 41
Views: 5770

Re: Might need to replace car: are used Tesla's the value play right now?

When you buy a 3year or 4year old car with 50k miles on it and keep it until it's ~10 years old - 1)how many miles do you put on it during those years, and 2)what do you expect to sell the car for at the ~10 year mark? EVs are not like ICE vehicles. There's a very real chance that the battery is worthless(which makes the car worthless) at the 10 year mark. Battery warranty on Model 3 is 8years and 100k or 120k miles. So if you're expecting to put a lot of miles on it, you may end up paying for a battery replacement out of pocket or scrapping the car. Tesla didn't really start selling in any volume until at least 2018/2019 timeframe. The overwhelming majority of Teslas are still within the 8 year battery warranty period. Relatively little i...
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Might need to replace car: are used Tesla's the value play right now?
Replies: 41
Views: 5770

Re: Might need to replace car: are used Tesla's the value play right now?

... if you want Japanese then Mazda is likely your best bet. ... My value play recommendation is to buy something that is considered our of favor but is actually a great car. That has generally been my strategy in the past. Example: 5 year old Ford Escort with 55K miles, bought for $4800, drove for 12 years, only 1 unscheduled repair at $500, rest of cost was gas, insurance, and scheduled maintenance, totaled in fender bender, valued at $3050 by insurer. This has become more difficult to do. I agree that Mazda is likely the best bet for a value used car. Might also consider a used Ford Focus or Ford Taurus. Consumer Reports used car repair data is very helpful. The automatic Focus had serious transmission issues. I'd only consider a manual...
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW named top pick in CR overall brand rankings
Replies: 55
Views: 5697

Re: BMW named top pick in CR overall brand rankings

hunoraut wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:24 pm
alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:06 pm Too bad they beat most of their cars with an ugly stick. I don't care how good they are, I could never live with a car like the iX or M3/4. I have a reasonable tolerance for less than beautiful cars, but those cross the line.
I think their heydays ended in the mid 2010s, arguably 2000s. The E39 a high point and the E92 the book-end.

(Mine was late 2010s but one of the few appealing models left in their lineup)
The prior generation M2 was the last good looking BMW in my book.
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Salary (>$500,000) careers
Replies: 244
Views: 29136

Re: High Salary (>$500,000) careers

At least at most tech companies the list of employees stack ranked from top comp to bottom in an SVPs org is often a starting point to justify a persons value and role to stay in their position (or get layed off). It’s often a numbers game imo. Game of thrones type survival. Tired of the games to be honest, gets grueling when tech companies get used to annual layoff season. I often console myself that at least I’m not near the top of that list, while knowing folks on my team are close to $500k total comp. I see the tangible difference in terms of stress, meetings at all hours of the day, expectations to make the right decisions for critical projects daily…etc. I feel like flying under the radar for a few more years is my goal, while teenag...
by alfaspider
Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW named top pick in CR overall brand rankings
Replies: 55
Views: 5697

Re: BMW named top pick in CR overall brand rankings

Too bad they beat most of their cars with an ugly stick. I don't care how good they are, I could never live with a car like the iX or M3/4. I have a reasonable tolerance for less than beautiful cars, but those cross the line.
by alfaspider
Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to be a first-time home buyer if I intend to move in three years?
Replies: 73
Views: 7886

Re: Best way to be a first-time home buyer if I intend to move in three years?

As others have said, rent. But the main reason why needs to be explained: transaction costs. When a home changes hands, over 6% of its value typically goes out the window in the form of transaction costs (it doesn't matter if the seller "pays" the realtors, it's coming out of the economics of the transaction one way or another). In addition to the 6% commissions, the buyer of a hose will also pay various closing costs (and in some jurisdictions real estate transaction taxes). Since homes usually appreciate, these costs tend to be recouped in the long term, but you will almost always lose money if you buy a house and then sell shortly thereafter. Another thing worth considering: it's harder to buy a new house when you already own o...
by alfaspider
Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Salary (>$500,000) careers
Replies: 244
Views: 29136

Re: High Salary (>$500,000) careers

Why are we focused on high (taxable) salary? I think most high earners would love to have stock options, a cash balance plan, or something else to get their annual salaries as low as possible if they could. High salaries just mean extremely high taxation. Stock options aren't a magic tax avoidance device. You are still being taxed on their value (although the appreciation may be taxed at capital gains rates with an 83(b) election). High-end executive salaries are carefully structured to minimize and defer taxes to the extent possible, but this isn't typically just a high salary career path so much as being selected into the upper upper echelon of a given career. If you really want to avoid taxation, the goal should be to have almost all of...