Search found 295 matches

by Tyler9000
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1964

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

If interested, I started a thread in the past on the issue of volatility drag. If two portfolios have the same average annual return but different volatilities, the portfolio with less volatility will have a higher terminal wealth. It’s compounded return will be greater. To me, this is a strong rea...
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 2672

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

I personally think 100% stocks can work fine for the right person in the right situation, but there's so much more to wise financial management than simply maximizing hopeful long-term returns. By choosing that path you're sacrificing a lot of benefits that an intelligently diversified asset allocat...
by Tyler9000
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % return do you use?
Replies: 62
Views: 4129

Re: what % return do you use?

Basically, most sites you read say 7% is a fairly common number to use for returns over the long haul, and I tend to agree. But, when you are less than 10 years away from your number, the accuracy of that 7% return seems to be much more volatile. How many that have less than 10 years till FIRE are ...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 35859

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

I'd also love to see a "benchmark heatmap", where instead of the heatmap scale being Real CAGR, it equals Real CAGR for portfolio A minus Real CAGR for portfolio B. This seems like a great way to compare the strengths of bond-heavy or stock-heavy portfolios over different timescales. That's an inte...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 35859

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Okay -- another question, this time on the Portfolio Finder Calculator. It looks intriguing, but what I don't see is how to determine the relative weights for a particular Portfolio listed in the Most Consistent Portfolio Table or a data point on the graph. The Portfolio Finder assumes that each as...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: The Ulcer Index

I didn't get that from his explanation: "Technically, it is the square root of the mean of the squared percentage drawdowns in value." I don't see where the total drawdown-free interval plays a role in this. It seems to just compare drawdowns across investment, but I'm no expert. It's admittedly a ...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: The Ulcer Index

Since you're here -- why do you not have any asset-class level international bond data? The short story is that I model bond funds myself using data directly from various central banks. That's relatively straightforward for a single country, but to accurately model a multi-country international fun...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: The Ulcer Index

Thanks Kevin K. I'm glad you found the post useful! I certainly can't take credit for the Ulcer Index idea, but I enjoy being able to spread the word as I do believe it's a helpful way to look at portfolio volatility. I was just having a discussion on this subject earlier today. I haven't really use...
by Tyler9000
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 35859

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

1. The Perpetual WR (dark Green) line seems to start at 0% around year 13 and slopes upwards. How should I interpret this line? it seems counter-intuitive that as my Retirement Years increase, my Perpetual Withdrawal Rate would also increase. . The horizontal axis is not a linear timeframe where yo...
by Tyler9000
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+
Replies: 97
Views: 8444

Re: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+

For a lot more info, here's my favorite Bogleheads thread on this topic: viewtopic.php?t=196011
by Tyler9000
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2820

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

specific economic conditions (and returns) that happened in a given country may very well appear in another country in the future (or something similar at least), and that is one of the key lessons to get from those per-country returns in my humble opinion. Hence the desire to figure a plan that wo...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2820

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Hm. Tyler, a little Nisiprius on your shoulder should have made you write: You could definitely still have achieved a 4% withdrawal rate, but your portfolio would have looked a little different than the very specific US stock/bond split typically studied. Fair enough. :sharebeer I'm usually pretty ...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2820

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

So what’s your point? That 4%, which didn’t work in most other similar places, so therefore we shouldn’t have confidence in it? The point is that people outside of the US should not blindly follow advice designed for US investors using portfolio, currency, and inflation assumptions that do not appl...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 2820

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Withdrawal Rates are a special interest of mine, and you might enjoy the article I wrote recently on this topic:

Your Home Country Is Inseparable From Your Withdrawal Rate
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2752

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

I've seen this site before and it's interesting and got really nice web production values but I'm a bit sceptical of the numbers. The WRs seem very high for even simple stock/bond portfolios. Higher than any of the other studies show. Maybe he's right and all the others are wrong but as the outlier...
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2752

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

If the OP is planning to retire early/very early then a higher stock allocation is needed for the longer retirement or a much lower withdrawal rate (WR). Another way to look at it is that the percentage of stocks and bonds in your portfolio really doesn't tell the whole story because not all stocks...
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2752

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

What's a Good Asset Allocation for a couple in their mid 30s with relatively high stable incomes in terms of Stock/Bond asset allocation? Their main goal is to be financially independent sooner rather than later. I recommend browsing these popular portfolio options and looking for one that resonate...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying nightguards (teeth grinding)
Replies: 52
Views: 4405

Re: Buying nightguards (teeth grinding)

I've been using the Sleep Right night guard for years. It took me awhile to find one that was comfortable enough to wear every night. I've had one 2 made from dentists but I found them too thick. This nightguard is not meant to be as durable as the one made by your dentist. However, it is cheap and...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1042
Views: 579087

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Siamond, CAGR and STDEV still don't match when I subtract the ER of 0.19% for the years 1927 through 2016 (1998 being the year of inception of the real world fund). What gives? Regards, Sergio. I haven't verified your calculations personally, but I suspect it has to do with how you're accounting fo...
by Tyler9000
Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 854

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

I'm no Siamond, but I'm the author of PortfolioCharts and calculated many of the returns used in the Simba spreadsheet. So I know a bit about how the numbers are generated and how well they track known funds. As for the small discrepancy in PortfolioCharts returns for the same year, that's simply a ...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7536

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

...Cash loses buying power due to inflation... But does it? Certainly it does if, by cash, you mean physical paper currency, or deposits in a non-interest-bearing checking account. It's hard to generalize across all bank accounts but typically "good" bank accounts--"high yield" savings accounts, so...
by Tyler9000
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3380

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Very cool chart. Question - the description says that the data has "up to 5 assets". Would be interesting to break it down tinto separate charts for 2, 3, 4 and 5 assets to more clearly see how there might be diminishing returns for adding more assets. I've done something similar in the past, but I...
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 12596

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I finally got an answer from the folks managing the database. Not terribly helpful, but keeping the door open... The dataset on the website http://www.macrohistory.net/data/ currently does not contain the dividend and housing rent series. These new series will only be incorporated into the JST data...
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks
Replies: 11
Views: 1393

Re: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks

Hi, What do the bogleheads think of REIT and Bonds as a hedge against stocks? Long story short -- they both can help with the downsides of stocks, but they do it in different ways. It's a little tricky to explain, so I find a few pictures may help. The following chart looks at annual stock returns ...
by Tyler9000
Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: s&p total return chart with contributions
Replies: 11
Views: 1600

Re: s&p total return chart with contributions

I guess I was after something where I could put in different start/end dates. Try this Portfolio Growth calculator. You can enter an annual contribution (or withdrawal) and it runs the numbers for every start date since 1970 simultaneously. Also note that all numbers are adjusted for inflation.
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps
Replies: 5
Views: 606

Re: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps

Jon Bresnen wrote:
Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:27 am
Does anyone know the historical breakdown among US large, mid and small caps within the US stock market?
Define "breakdown". What specific information are you looking for?
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 838

Re: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

You might also check out Portfolio Charts . Specifically, I think you'll find the Heat Map calculator helpful for looking at multiple timeframes at once. The portfolios are rebalanced annually, the numbers are real returns after inflation, and you can use this to study any asset allocation you like....
by Tyler9000
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 1284

Re: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree

I would like to get a sense of what percentage the asset classes should be at this new stage of my life, retirement, i.e., large cap, small cap, international, bond classes, etc.? No legacy issues here; I just don't want to run out of money before I leave this world. RMDs start two years from now. ...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 12596

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

If interested in more about this research, covering 17 advanced countries from 1870-2015, one can access for free some of the original data sets in Excel format (including housing prices, stock prices, interest rates, inflation rates, real GDP growth and more) — plus read similar papers that have b...
by Tyler9000
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4919

Re: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio

Do you have any thoughts on this asset allocation, especially if it's appropriate for a long early retirement? I've also seen this called the "No-Brainer" portfolio. You might check out the portfolio data here: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/no-brainer-portfolio/ There you can see how it per...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"
Replies: 50
Views: 6507

Re: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"

What would be a better asset allocation given a goal of asset protection to keep up with inflation? More bonds? CDs?, Treasuries?, perhaps increase stocks to 20% ? I'd recommend reading about the Permanent Portfolio . Specifically, pick up the book by Rowland and Lawson. Even if it's ultimately not...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations
Replies: 107
Views: 8647

Re: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations

This is a fascinating topic. I'm still getting caught up to the various threads, but it seems like a very worthwhile effort. Special thanks to Siamond for the legwork and to LadyGeek for the wiki info.
by Tyler9000
Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYT: Buy more takeout and hire a maid, study suggests
Replies: 36
Views: 6166

Re: NYT: Buy more takeout and hire a maid, study suggests

I feel like the article almost articulated a larger point at the end, but it never quite got there: But, despite its benefits, the practice of buying time is not as popular as one might expect, they found. Even among more than 800 Dutch millionaires surveyed, all of whom surely could afford to do so...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1175

Re: All Weather Portfolio

Does any one have experience with this or a perspective on it? Thanks It's not the exact same as the version you quote (the stock and treasury percentages are flipped), but this is pretty close: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/all-seasons-portfolio/ Note that you can compare the results to ma...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jul 02, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement withdrawal rates
Replies: 36
Views: 2901

Re: Retirement withdrawal rates

As I understand it, the 4% rule was based on these assumptions: 1. that retirees need to be protected from a future economic event as severe as the Great Depression; 2. that retirees require or even desire level retirement spending throughout a possible 35 year joint survival period; 3. that retire...
by Tyler9000
Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 26
Views: 2457

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

I have a very high risk tolerance and I'm young so I'd like to get as many returns as I can over the next several decades. 2) If you look at the data for yourself, I think you will be surprised, in the past data, by just how long a period of time you could have without getting those higher returns,...
by Tyler9000
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 26
Views: 2457

Re: Survivorship bias and Portfolio Visualizer

Hi RedNels. The short story is that the index data you see on Portfolio Visualizer and similar sites does not suffer from survivorship bias in the way that your coworker is using the term. Index data on a given date is a good snapshot of what qualified for that index at the time, and companies are N...
by Tyler9000
Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to model TIPS rates (and returns) pre-1997
Replies: 93
Views: 7568

Re: How to model TIPS rates (and returns) pre-1997

In 2008 Ang, Bekaert, and Wei published "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation" where they create a model for real rates (both short & long) as well as expected inflation going back to 1950. Dunno if it is useful or not. Nice find! The paper itself seems short on verifiable data, ...
by Tyler9000
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 138
Views: 9149

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

I wrote a long reply only to realize I was rehashing too much from the link I posted earlier. :oops: Sorry about that! It's best just to read the more thorough original.
by Tyler9000
Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 138
Views: 9149

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

My personal thoughts on using a 100% stock portfolio are best summarized here: https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/07/25/thinking-beyond-stocks-can-fortify-your-accumulation-plan/. Long story short, 100% stocks can work fine for some people but diverse portfolios including bonds and other assets are mo...
by Tyler9000
Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 35859

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Hi Tyler, Great tool. I use it a lot. I used to see Merriman Ultimate Portfolio but I do not see it anymore. Any reason why it was removed? My portfolio resembles Marriman's so it was easy for me to get all the data needed with one click rather than doing a customized chart. Thanks for sharing this...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 29, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio for retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1945

Re: All Weather Portfolio for retirement

30% intermediate bonds 23% Large Cap Value 12% Large Cap Growth 14% Small Cap Value 21% Int. Stocks Would anyone care to share their thoughts on this portfolio? You might try running your portfolio through these two calculators: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/withdrawal-rates/ https://portfo...
by Tyler9000
Tue May 16, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 35859

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Hi Tyler, Great tool. I use it a lot. I used to see Merriman Ultimate Portfolio but I do not see it anymore. Any reason why it was removed? With the latest major update I temporarily removed several assets used in the Merriman Portfolio. I still think it's a perfectly good option, but I do my best ...
by Tyler9000
Sun May 14, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tool for Historical Returns
Replies: 1
Views: 363

Re: Tool for Historical Returns

Hi Sandrino. Here's a summary page with a bunch of charts tracking the full range of historical outcomes (since 1970) for the Three Fund Portfolio you're leaning towards. There you can find both the drawdown info you're looking for and also the inflation-adjusted historical returns over a variety of...
by Tyler9000
Sat May 13, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World stock historical data? Charts?
Replies: 2
Views: 410

Re: World stock historical data? Charts?

You might enjoy Portfolio Charts. It has data including broad international indices and individual countries going back to 1970.

Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet here on the BH forum also has a lot of good data.
by Tyler9000
Fri May 05, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Index Funds A Farce?
Replies: 28
Views: 4131

Re: Value Index Funds A Farse?

This thread on how the value indices are constructed and why they're done that way is relevant: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=216649
by Tyler9000
Mon May 01, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation tools for investors around the world
Replies: 4
Views: 773

Asset allocation tools for investors around the world

Hey fellow Bogleheads. Discovering this forum and the simple but effective asset allocation concepts it promotes remains one of the more impactful moments in my investing education. As some of you may know, I've been working on translating that knowledge into some tools to study historical portfolio...
by Tyler9000
Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1778

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

If that is the primary explanation (and it does make sense), then this makes the French-Fama 2x3 matrix even more academic than I thought it was. Definitely not something to rely on. IMHO, the strict FF value definition is highly questionable from a practical ownership sense. It's sorta like studyi...