Search found 311 matches

by Tyler9000
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3436

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

On paper, the difference between a 4.5% SWR and a 5% SWR seems massive. In the real world it means going from a portfolio of 20x to 22x. It obviously depends on your personal savings rate, investment performance, etc, etc. But for a lot of people on Bogleheads that means "work 6-18 months more". (A...
by Tyler9000
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3436

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

For sure, but this chart only addresses the 1970-now time period, right? Hence missing the really painful starting years like in the mid-60s. Hard to say what would have really happened to those 'lazy' portfolios by then. I would *guess* some of them would have made a true difference, but this is o...
by Tyler9000
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3436

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

So AA does have an impact on the SWR, but whether this is 'substantial' is a matter of opinion. Indeed. And I think it is not substantial :D . Taking Australia as one of the more extreme examples, the difference between 100% bonds and 100% equities is what, 0.5%? Fair enough, but start looking at m...
by Tyler9000
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3436

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

The interesting bit I found was the longer the retirement timeframe (ie 40 years) the higher the equity allocation did not provide a higher SWR rate at 99% probability of success. Thanks for the links. I find this topic very interesting. From my own research, it's pretty clear that the common assum...
by Tyler9000
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 1396

Re: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio

I assume you dont include the value of your primary residence in your portfolio but what if you have a $1mm home and could easily downsize to a $500k home in the future if needed? Can you include the $500k difference in calculating SWR? How about vacation houses that could be sold or rented later i...
by Tyler9000
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and early retirement?
Replies: 69
Views: 8276

Re: 4% rule and early retirement?

Is there research / recommendations on the 4% safe withdrawal rule and early retirement? If I understand correctly the 4% rule was done with a 30-year time horizon. What happens if one has potentially 40 or 50 years in retirement? The 4% rule still applies? For very long retirements, I recommend re...
by Tyler9000
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3450

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Care to point out any place in the article that compares diversified portfolio to ones with home country biases cause I don't see it. I do see a lot of evidences that Intermediate bonds were good investments in the 70s and 80s:) And yeah I can see a much stronger argument for local currency bonds. ...
by Tyler9000
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3450

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

What evidence do you have that inflation and home country returns are linked? In pretty much every case where inflation hits that I am aware of, you would have been better off investing in other countries securities. See the US in the 70s or any of the emerging markets that had high inflation for a...
by Tyler9000
Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3450

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

How would you invest if you’d be European? Currency aside, I personally think it's important to invest a good amount in your home country to make sure the engine of your returns properly tracks the local inflation it needs to account for. To explore the numbers for yourself I recommend checking out...
by Tyler9000
Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation during retirement and Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 8
Views: 750

Re: Asset Allocation during retirement and Safe Withdrawal Rates

2. I am currently at 42% bonds and 58% equities allocation (Core Four) Also, keep in mind that if you're invested in the Core Four then your portfolio contains two assets that the Trinity Study never even considered in its analysis. Not all stocks and bonds are created equal! This is a complicated ...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VBR
Replies: 8
Views: 843

Re: VBR

Mutual fund VBR is suppose to be small cap value. How can this be a value fund if the P/E is 27.63? The short story is that VBR covers the top cap-weighted half of the small cap market as sorted by value and does not simply sell and sit in cash if the market as a whole is overvalued. In fact, it al...
by Tyler9000
Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 107
Views: 8597

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

Tyler, are gold prices and stock returns actually negatively correlated or just uncorrelated? Looking at the last 14 years of data, the correlation between GLD and VTSMX is .04, which is essentially zero. According to my best current year-end data, the correlation of gold to US stocks since 1972 (t...
by Tyler9000
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 107
Views: 8597

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/drawdowns/ FYI - The website developer is a forum member (Tyler9000). I asked him to review the website entry. I'm on it! :D Here are the two charts for discussion purposes. Note that it's set to Australia and to All-World per Wombatty's calculations. (That set...
by Tyler9000
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 20273

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The whole point is that it is a top-down portfolio linked to local economic conditions. I always appreciate succinct explanations. Well said. BTW, for anyone considering the Golden Butterfly I also recommend this book on the Permanent Portfolio. It goes through a lot of the macroeconomic background...
by Tyler9000
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 20273

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Living in the UK (as a British citizen with no plans to move abroad any time soon), what are the downsides (if any) to investing in a US portfolio like this? If you're building a Golden Butterfly for the UK or any other smaller market, splitting the stocks between half local and half All-World migh...
by Tyler9000
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation & The 4% Rule
Replies: 8
Views: 730

Re: Asset Allocation & The 4% Rule

If you have a little time, I recommend reading through each of these articles. They discuss things like how asset allocation (including investment options never considered by most retirement studies) affects SWRs and how your home country also affects the numbers in ways that might surprise you. htt...
by Tyler9000
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 2311

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

If interested, I started a thread in the past on the issue of volatility drag. If two portfolios have the same average annual return but different volatilities, the portfolio with less volatility will have a higher terminal wealth. It’s compounded return will be greater. To me, this is a strong rea...
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 3559

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

I personally think 100% stocks can work fine for the right person in the right situation, but there's so much more to wise financial management than simply maximizing hopeful long-term returns. By choosing that path you're sacrificing a lot of benefits that an intelligently diversified asset allocat...
by Tyler9000
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % return do you use?
Replies: 62
Views: 4657

Re: what % return do you use?

Basically, most sites you read say 7% is a fairly common number to use for returns over the long haul, and I tend to agree. But, when you are less than 10 years away from your number, the accuracy of that 7% return seems to be much more volatile. How many that have less than 10 years till FIRE are ...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 37065

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

I'd also love to see a "benchmark heatmap", where instead of the heatmap scale being Real CAGR, it equals Real CAGR for portfolio A minus Real CAGR for portfolio B. This seems like a great way to compare the strengths of bond-heavy or stock-heavy portfolios over different timescales. That's an inte...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 37065

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Okay -- another question, this time on the Portfolio Finder Calculator. It looks intriguing, but what I don't see is how to determine the relative weights for a particular Portfolio listed in the Most Consistent Portfolio Table or a data point on the graph. The Portfolio Finder assumes that each as...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1317

Re: The Ulcer Index

I didn't get that from his explanation: "Technically, it is the square root of the mean of the squared percentage drawdowns in value." I don't see where the total drawdown-free interval plays a role in this. It seems to just compare drawdowns across investment, but I'm no expert. It's admittedly a ...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1317

Re: The Ulcer Index

Since you're here -- why do you not have any asset-class level international bond data? The short story is that I model bond funds myself using data directly from various central banks. That's relatively straightforward for a single country, but to accurately model a multi-country international fun...
by Tyler9000
Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ulcer Index
Replies: 12
Views: 1317

Re: The Ulcer Index

Thanks Kevin K. I'm glad you found the post useful! I certainly can't take credit for the Ulcer Index idea, but I enjoy being able to spread the word as I do believe it's a helpful way to look at portfolio volatility. I was just having a discussion on this subject earlier today. I haven't really use...
by Tyler9000
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 177
Views: 37065

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

1. The Perpetual WR (dark Green) line seems to start at 0% around year 13 and slopes upwards. How should I interpret this line? it seems counter-intuitive that as my Retirement Years increase, my Perpetual Withdrawal Rate would also increase. . The horizontal axis is not a linear timeframe where yo...
by Tyler9000
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+
Replies: 97
Views: 9339

Re: Is it ok to have 100% stocks, 15 years+

For a lot more info, here's my favorite Bogleheads thread on this topic: viewtopic.php?t=196011
by Tyler9000
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 3096

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

specific economic conditions (and returns) that happened in a given country may very well appear in another country in the future (or something similar at least), and that is one of the key lessons to get from those per-country returns in my humble opinion. Hence the desire to figure a plan that wo...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 3096

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Hm. Tyler, a little Nisiprius on your shoulder should have made you write: You could definitely still have achieved a 4% withdrawal rate, but your portfolio would have looked a little different than the very specific US stock/bond split typically studied. Fair enough. :sharebeer I'm usually pretty ...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 3096

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

So what’s your point? That 4%, which didn’t work in most other similar places, so therefore we shouldn’t have confidence in it? The point is that people outside of the US should not blindly follow advice designed for US investors using portfolio, currency, and inflation assumptions that do not appl...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries
Replies: 29
Views: 3096

Re: 4% SWR Rule in Other Countries

Withdrawal Rates are a special interest of mine, and you might enjoy the article I wrote recently on this topic:

Your Home Country Is Inseparable From Your Withdrawal Rate
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 3108

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

I've seen this site before and it's interesting and got really nice web production values but I'm a bit sceptical of the numbers. The WRs seem very high for even simple stock/bond portfolios. Higher than any of the other studies show. Maybe he's right and all the others are wrong but as the outlier...
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 3108

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

If the OP is planning to retire early/very early then a higher stock allocation is needed for the longer retirement or a much lower withdrawal rate (WR). Another way to look at it is that the percentage of stocks and bonds in your portfolio really doesn't tell the whole story because not all stocks...
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 3108

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

What's a Good Asset Allocation for a couple in their mid 30s with relatively high stable incomes in terms of Stock/Bond asset allocation? Their main goal is to be financially independent sooner rather than later. I recommend browsing these popular portfolio options and looking for one that resonate...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying nightguards (teeth grinding)
Replies: 52
Views: 4783

Re: Buying nightguards (teeth grinding)

I've been using the Sleep Right night guard for years. It took me awhile to find one that was comfortable enough to wear every night. I've had one 2 made from dentists but I found them too thick. This nightguard is not meant to be as durable as the one made by your dentist. However, it is cheap and...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1090
Views: 597210

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Siamond, CAGR and STDEV still don't match when I subtract the ER of 0.19% for the years 1927 through 2016 (1998 being the year of inception of the real world fund). What gives? Regards, Sergio. I haven't verified your calculations personally, but I suspect it has to do with how you're accounting fo...
by Tyler9000
Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 1012

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

I'm no Siamond, but I'm the author of PortfolioCharts and calculated many of the returns used in the Simba spreadsheet. So I know a bit about how the numbers are generated and how well they track known funds. As for the small discrepancy in PortfolioCharts returns for the same year, that's simply a ...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 8157

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

...Cash loses buying power due to inflation... But does it? Certainly it does if, by cash, you mean physical paper currency, or deposits in a non-interest-bearing checking account. It's hard to generalize across all bank accounts but typically "good" bank accounts--"high yield" savings accounts, so...
by Tyler9000
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3529

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Very cool chart. Question - the description says that the data has "up to 5 assets". Would be interesting to break it down tinto separate charts for 2, 3, 4 and 5 assets to more clearly see how there might be diminishing returns for adding more assets. I've done something similar in the past, but I...
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 107
Views: 18578

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I finally got an answer from the folks managing the database. Not terribly helpful, but keeping the door open... The dataset on the website http://www.macrohistory.net/data/ currently does not contain the dividend and housing rent series. These new series will only be incorporated into the JST data...
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks
Replies: 11
Views: 1541

Re: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks

Hi, What do the bogleheads think of REIT and Bonds as a hedge against stocks? Long story short -- they both can help with the downsides of stocks, but they do it in different ways. It's a little tricky to explain, so I find a few pictures may help. The following chart looks at annual stock returns ...
by Tyler9000
Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: s&p total return chart with contributions
Replies: 11
Views: 1683

Re: s&p total return chart with contributions

I guess I was after something where I could put in different start/end dates. Try this Portfolio Growth calculator. You can enter an annual contribution (or withdrawal) and it runs the numbers for every start date since 1970 simultaneously. Also note that all numbers are adjusted for inflation.
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps
Replies: 5
Views: 661

Re: Historical US Stock Market Allocation Among Market Caps

Jon Bresnen wrote:
Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:27 am
Does anyone know the historical breakdown among US large, mid and small caps within the US stock market?
Define "breakdown". What specific information are you looking for?
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures
Replies: 8
Views: 917

Re: Calculator for historic allocation mixtures

You might also check out Portfolio Charts . Specifically, I think you'll find the Heat Map calculator helpful for looking at multiple timeframes at once. The portfolios are rebalanced annually, the numbers are real returns after inflation, and you can use this to study any asset allocation you like....
by Tyler9000
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 1391

Re: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree

I would like to get a sense of what percentage the asset classes should be at this new stage of my life, retirement, i.e., large cap, small cap, international, bond classes, etc.? No legacy issues here; I just don't want to run out of money before I leave this world. RMDs start two years from now. ...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 107
Views: 18578

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

If interested in more about this research, covering 17 advanced countries from 1870-2015, one can access for free some of the original data sets in Excel format (including housing prices, stock prices, interest rates, inflation rates, real GDP growth and more) — plus read similar papers that have b...
by Tyler9000
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 5638

Re: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio

Do you have any thoughts on this asset allocation, especially if it's appropriate for a long early retirement? I've also seen this called the "No-Brainer" portfolio. You might check out the portfolio data here: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/no-brainer-portfolio/ There you can see how it per...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"
Replies: 50
Views: 6845

Re: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"

What would be a better asset allocation given a goal of asset protection to keep up with inflation? More bonds? CDs?, Treasuries?, perhaps increase stocks to 20% ? I'd recommend reading about the Permanent Portfolio . Specifically, pick up the book by Rowland and Lawson. Even if it's ultimately not...
by Tyler9000
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations
Replies: 107
Views: 9574

Re: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations

This is a fascinating topic. I'm still getting caught up to the various threads, but it seems like a very worthwhile effort. Special thanks to Siamond for the legwork and to LadyGeek for the wiki info.
by Tyler9000
Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYT: Buy more takeout and hire a maid, study suggests
Replies: 36
Views: 6375

Re: NYT: Buy more takeout and hire a maid, study suggests

I feel like the article almost articulated a larger point at the end, but it never quite got there: But, despite its benefits, the practice of buying time is not as popular as one might expect, they found. Even among more than 800 Dutch millionaires surveyed, all of whom surely could afford to do so...