Search found 450 matches

by Tyler9000
Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 76
Views: 4342

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

While physical gold was prohibited for individual investors through 1972, gold certificates were perfectly legal to trade in the US starting in 1964 . Think of them as an early predecessor to modern ETFs. So none of the portfolios were illegal to hold in 1970. I've done a bit of research today on t...
by Tyler9000
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 76
Views: 4342

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

The OP asked about the default one. The default one does not mention anywhere that gold was illegal to hold pre-1975. I thought that was useful information, because using 1970-1975 data greatly overstates the results for any portfolio that includes gold. To be fair, the OP did not mention gold at a...
by Tyler9000
Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 76
Views: 4342

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

It isn't a matter of me not liking these portfolios or gold, it's a matter of them being illegal to implement in the US during 14% of the periods. My fundamental question is this: If you think it doesn't matter, then why not start it in 1975 (or 1978) instead of 1970? If you think it does matter, t...
by Tyler9000
Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 76
Views: 4342

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

If you accept that the 1970-1975 data (at the very least) cannot be used, then using 1970 data for gold overstates the "long-term compound return", which is what was linked by the OP, and what I was referring to by "return", and was presumably what they were referring to by "return". Using 1970 dat...
by Tyler9000
Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 76
Views: 4342

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

This site starts portfolios with gold in it in 1970... That's only partially true. More accurately, Portfolio Charts starts portfolios in every year since 1970. It charts the best start dates, worst start dates, and everything in between simultaneously . So for example, it does not just show the re...
by Tyler9000
Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 238
Views: 56345

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Does this mean you recommend to implement the GB for Europeans with just European stocks/bonds? It the idea behind this portfolio no longer valid when we add international stocks/bonds? There are few schools of thought on that. I recommend reading this book by Craig Rowland for the full classical e...
by Tyler9000
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Simulation Tools?
Replies: 3
Views: 265

Re: Asset Allocation Simulation Tools?

I’m looking for a more nuanced answer to asset allocation than simply something stock heavy—I would like to ideally run many different scenarios and see the likelihood of outcomes over a 20 or 30 year period given many different asset allocation scenarios. Any thoughts? Try Portfolio Charts . It wi...
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs

It is dependent on where you live. I know a few people for whom Medicaid has been amazing with completely free coverage, widely accepted and staff that makes any paperwork a breeze. There are other locations where Medicaid would be severely limiting and a lot more hassle. Fair enough. I have no dou...
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs

alerya wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:24 pm
I don't know much about this. Can you elaborate on why one would not want to qualify for Medicaid?
Mainly flexibility and choice. Choosing your own plan makes it easier to find a doctor you like. And Medicaid adds an additional level of bureaucratic red tape that you may not care for.
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs

2) Being able to take capital gains at the 0% federal long term capital gain tax bracket can be very valuable but you will giving that up to get the subsidy. 3) Likewise you will not be able to do Roth conversions in a low tax bracket. Nothing prevents someone from paying no capital gains taxes and...
by Tyler9000
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs
Replies: 65
Views: 5373

Re: Early Financial Independence. - Healthcare costs

This, when we put the interest and dividend income as $24,000 or so, it came to $240 with a 8 K deductible. Be sure to look at the silver plans. They also qualify for reduced deductibles ("cost sharing") depending on your income. At $24k taxable income, your deductible may also be close to zero. On...
by Tyler9000
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European ETFs historical data (including AUM, dividends/distributions, etc)
Replies: 5
Views: 382

Re: European ETFs historical data (including AUM, dividends/distributions, etc)

Any pointers or suggestions ? If specific ETF data is hard to come by, you might try looking for data for the underlying indices (MSCI, FTSE, etc) that those ETFs track. Both the Fama French and MSCI websites have a good amount of European index data, so they'd be good places to start. They won't h...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 238
Views: 56345

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

The most successful investors buy, hold and do it frequently in low fee funds. That's what this whole site is all about. So why complicate things and try to predict things. That's also what Portfolio Charts is all about! And it doesn't try to predict things at all. The overall theme is about unders...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?
Replies: 33
Views: 3677

Re: What were the best portfolios during the "lost decade" 2000-2009?

What were the best portfolios to have during the "lost decade" 2000-2009? What worked and what didn't work? How would the Boglehead 3-fund have worked back then? I'm just curious. Try this . It will show you the best times, worst times, and everything in between for a bunch of different famous asse...
by Tyler9000
Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 238
Views: 56345

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

It's basically a 3 fund portfolio with a risky twist. Personally I think this is too reductionist. The two portfolios have different assets, performance characteristics, and underlying investing philosophies. They're different portfolios for different types of people. One is free to prefer any asse...
by Tyler9000
Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 238
Views: 56345

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Very interesting website. Without further digging through the website or researching more, just wondering which portfolios are for conservative investors, or more downturn protected? Any suggestions. Thank you. I would recommend checking out the Portfolio Matrix . You can sort by a variety of diffe...
by Tyler9000
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - [Simulating Total Bond Market]
Replies: 26
Views: 923

Re: An experiment in improving Longinvest Bond Simulator for TBM by incorporating TSM [Bond Fund Simulator]

The rub is: we don't have this data going back to 1871, at least not in readily available formats. And the primary purpose is for Simba's backtesting spreadsheet. So, in the end I ended up with TSM (with only a 91.4% match) over Corporate bonds or High-Yield bond funds/indexes because Sp500 is read...
by Tyler9000
Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - [Simulating Total Bond Market]
Replies: 26
Views: 923

Re: An experiment in improving Longinvest Bond Simulator for TBM by incorporating TSM [Bond Fund Simulator]

Hm. There is something fishy here. I tried to recreate the return regression test with PV, which worked fine. Except that STT % and ITT % seemed inverted. I came back to jmk's posts (see below), and I noticed the same inversion between the 1st post and the second post (the pie chart). For reference...
by Tyler9000
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - [Simulating Total Bond Market]
Replies: 26
Views: 923

Re: An experiment in improving Longinvest Bond Simulator for TBM by incorporating TSM [Bond Fund Simulator]

I first ran a return regression in Portfolio Visualizer for Vanguard Total Bond Fund against Total Stock Index, Short term treasury index, Intermediate term treasury index and Long Term treasury index. This came up with VBMFX being composed of 4.9% TSM, 54.2% ITT, 26.1% STT, and 14.8% LTT. (Since t...
by Tyler9000
Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ideas for truly determining risk tolerance and translate to portfolio allocations?
Replies: 10
Views: 750

Re: Ideas for truly determining risk tolerance and translate to portfolio allocations?

This is important to me because I believe if I find my true risk tolerance I'll be far less likely to do something ill-advised in both the good & bad times, and sleep well/confidently. That's an astute observation, and I think you're doing a great job to be thinking about this type of thing. Everyo...
by Tyler9000
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement - not worry about withdrawal rate, but focus on portfolio size?
Replies: 69
Views: 6455

Re: Early retirement - not worry about withdrawal rate, but focus on portfolio size?

If you have a 30 yr horizon and want to lock it in, it's ~0.5% real, the past (higher) realized real return of bonds being irrelevant to that. Bonds have had 0.5% real returns over long periods in the past. I'm not sure why imply it hasn't happened before. The following 30 year cycles all had 0.5% ...
by Tyler9000
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6842

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

I can't judge you as an author because you've chosen to remain anonymous. The only question I would have is why remain anonymous, but that is your decision to make. Fundamentally I want the site to be about the portfolio data and not about me. I don't care about being famous and prefer to maintain ...
by Tyler9000
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6842

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

It's always good to know the sources of these blogs, especially financial blogs. Here's the author of this one: https://portfoliocharts.com/about/ Good one. Author is a Mechanical Engineer. Always know the source. . . . On the other hand, William Bernstein was also a neurologist, although his finan...
by Tyler9000
Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financially independent - now completely lost
Replies: 30
Views: 5665

Re: Financially independent - now completely lost

People say find jobs that make you passionate. How do you find that? Being an immigrant with zero money to start with I just used money as my sole motivator for all these years . So I never did that exercise - ie money was my passion. That's your problem right there. When making money is your only ...
by Tyler9000
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is the perpetual SWR for a 100% VWRD/VWRA portfolio?
Replies: 32
Views: 2451

Re: What is the perpetual SWR for a 100% VWRD/VWRA portfolio?

BeBH65 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:39 am
- look for post of diamond on the forum as well as the blog finpage.com
I think you mean siamond and his work at finpage.blog

He knows his stuff.
by Tyler9000
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negative yield?
Replies: 94
Views: 7158

Re: Why buy sovereign bonds with a negitave yeald?

Many sovereign bonds have a negative yield, they are charging the buyer to own them. Why wouldn't one rent a safety deposit box or buy a safe and store the cash there? :confused People certainly can keep their money in paper cash if rates go too negative, which is an important feedback loop in the ...
by Tyler9000
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate rate of return on a hypothetical portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 445

Re: How to calculate rate of return on a hypothetical portfolio

Try this: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/ It's a little fancier than your request, but it calculates the full range of historical outcomes for any asset allocation and condenses the data into a series of charts that are a lot more intuitive than a huge pile of numbers. And if you want to ski...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Careers that combine art/design and science?
Replies: 36
Views: 1816

Re: Careers that combine art/design and science?

I'll add one more vote for industrial design. The love of science and obsession with a Wacom tablet is a clear tell that it will probably interest her.

Here's a good resource if you'd like more info: https://www.idsa.org/
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 188
Views: 36621

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

That's it! The full data set is finally available in Excel format... Including price, dividends, total return data series for stocks and govt bonds for the various countries. Also bills, short-term and long-term bonds interest rates. And all the real estate data, inflation, GDP and more. http://www...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 5759

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

Thanks! So as I understand it, if your retirement timeframe is 0 - 10 or so years, then the PWR is 0% or negative (not shown on the graph), because you could lose value in your investments right away, with no time to recover. But if you'll be pulling for 20+ years, the ups and downs start to balanc...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 5759

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

Clearly I'm missing something important. Why is the PWR a function of retirement age in this chart, and tend to zero if you die the minute you retire? I thought the whole idea was you preserved principal in perpetuity (at least according to whatever data set and time period the analysis was based o...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios
Replies: 50
Views: 5759

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rates for 18 Portfolios

The actual 18-year PWR if we use data from 1871-2018 is negative 0.46%. ... So imagine someone looks at PortfolioCharts results and thought 2.5% was -- not a guarantee exactly -- but a 95th percentile "almost guaranteed" kind of thing. Then we look a bigger data sample and find that is more like 83...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 7104

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Do you have more info or maybe pictures like the one above that illustrate better at how well the portfolios mitigate downside risk? It's an area I'd like to learn more about. Sure. For individual portfolios, use this Drawdowns calculator or browse for the same pre-populated chart on the portfolios...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 7104

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

My actual question should have been that over a 20 year interval what percentage of time did 100% stocks beat other AA if the contributions were made on a monthly basis over that 20 year period. I wonder if there's a way to calculate that? Ok -- I'll play. 8-) First, let me explain three tweaks to ...
by Tyler9000
Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 7104

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Here are a bunch stats since 1970 for a wide variety of popular portfolios: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/ For the specific data point you're looking for, scroll down to the Rolling Returns chart and set the timeframe to 20 years. Or to study the big picture, the Heat Map is a nice way to g...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4797

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

I'm not associated with the site other than as a paid member. Well, as the author of Portfolio Charts I completely own my bias. 8-) But even if I have a different approach, I’m glad you found a resource you like that helps you sleep well with your investments. Personally I’m here for the portfolio ...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4797

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

Did you look at what I posted above? https://betterbuyandhold.com/buy-hold-b ... trategies/ Portfolios in general have interest rate risk, and static portfolio historical results need to be viewed with that in mind. It does not appear to me that PC is the best platform for analysis. Any takes on it...
by Tyler9000
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Worst Case Scenarios & Does AA Matter When Consistently Contributing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1549

Re: Modeling Worst Case Scenarios & Does AA Matter When Consistently Contributing?

In particular I'd like to see how to model the Japanese stagnation Try this: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/ Set the country to Japan, and it will use Japanese stocks and bonds and also translate numbers to Japanese currency and inflation. It will also model every start year sim...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 27, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?
Replies: 34
Views: 4238

Re: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?

50% bonds but what kind of bonds? 1 year bonds? 5 year bonds? Mortgage backed securities? 30 year bonds? Corporate bonds? I'm not sure what the Trinity study used. Do you? I'm also not sure what cFiresim uses. Bengen originally used 5 year treasury bonds, Trinity used long term corporate bonds, Pfa...
by Tyler9000
Sat May 25, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Meaning of "high/low tolerance" in precision engineering
Replies: 12
Views: 1987

Re: Meaning of "high/low tolerance" in precision engineering

If you work with or have thought of issues of precision engineering, do you use "high tolerance" to mean "high precision/low variance from the standard"? Yes. "Tight tolerance" may make more intuitive sense, but "high tolerance" is a common engineering term and anyone reading a drawing will know wh...
by Tyler9000
Tue May 14, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4032

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

It's not that simple. If nominal bonds always kept up with inflation there would be no such thing as TIPS. And because of interest rate risk, all bonds have sequence of returns issues just like stocks. I'll vouch for ERN's calculations here, and also point out that the results are reasonably consist...
by Tyler9000
Tue May 14, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4032

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

CraigTester wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 11:03 am
If 100% of your portfolio is invested in something that simply keeps up with inflation, it is "guaranteed" to last 33 years. ... Yet his chart says this combination only survives for 30 years, 89% of the time?
Why do you assume that 10-year treasuries keep up with inflation?
by Tyler9000
Tue May 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4032

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

If a PWR was your objective, would you feel comfortable using the historical PWR for your desired asset allocation or would you dial it back further? The PWR maintained the inflation-adjusted principal even in the very worst historical timeframe (stock crashes, skyrocketing interest rates, double-d...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 13, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 11617

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

There was one 20 year period where U.S. stocks' real return was -.219% , although I'm not sure of the years involved. And a 4% withdrawal rate still worked. :wink: My favorite chart for that is from Crestmont Research (fair warning -- it's a PDF). There are actually a few times that US stock real r...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 13, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4032

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

It seems to me that the safest allocation, safest meaning the lowest, average and median portfolio balance at the end of 60 years, is 100% stocks. However i often see that 100% stocks is strongly discouraged on this forum and considering the data i have retrieved I would like to know why? Is there ...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 13, 2019 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Global vs US REITs
Replies: 4
Views: 893

Re: Global vs US REITs

It's important to remember that "global" is not the same as "foreign". Look at the holdings by country in RWO (or any similar global REIT fund), and they're about 60% US. I imagine there are very reasonable risk management arguments for diversifying companies as broadly as possible with a global REI...
by Tyler9000
Wed May 08, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule
Replies: 94
Views: 7271

Re: The 4% rule

Normally, what you would do for testing investment strategies is calibrate it using one historical period (what volatility would you use, for instance?), and back test it using an out-of-sample period. If you really want to challenge your assumptions, enter your favorite asset allocation in to this...
by Tyler9000
Wed May 08, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule
Replies: 94
Views: 7271

Re: The 4% rule

m@ver1ck wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:20 am
Can someone point me to the math behind it? Or some calculators on how to simulate sequence of return events?
Try this: How Safe Withdrawal Rates Work

It walks through the general theory behind safe withdrawal rates and also offers some tools to calculate them for your own personal portfolio.
by Tyler9000
Tue May 07, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Mallouk's Outperform Portfolio vs S&P 500 Index Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 1396

Re: Peter Mallouk's Outperform Portfolio vs S&P 500 Index Fund

Is there any way I could obtain more data or do you know some even older indexes I could use instead that would allow me to make an analysis over longer time periods? Try this: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/ Enter your portfolio, and it will calculate the results for every inve...
by Tyler9000
Thu May 02, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3893

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

Larry Swedroe has a line he says frequently, something to the effect “for most investors 3 years is a long time, 5 years a very long time, and 10 years an eternity; but financial economists know that 10 years is just noise in the financial data” So many of us cite data looking back various amounts ...