Search found 526 matches

by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tool to plan portfolio growth
Replies: 4
Views: 219

Re: Tool to plan portfolio growth

Try this Portfolio Growth calculator: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/portfolio-growth/ Enter your specific portfolio, starting amount, and annual contribution, and it will calculate the real-world inflation-adjusted results using every annual start date since 1970. That will show the full ran...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Swedish Boglehead, Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 349

Re: Swedish Boglehead, Three-Fund Portfolio

Hi Bogleswede. Welcome! While I can’t directly answer your asset allocation questions for you, I can point you to a tool that might help you study ideas for yourself. Portfolio Charts includes data for all types of global assets including Swedish stocks, bonds, and bills. It has information on lots ...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT ETF (VNQ) Tracking
Replies: 4
Views: 396

Re: REIT ETF (VNQ) Tracking

MSCI is really good about documenting their index methodologies here: https://www.msci.com/index-methodology In this case, I believe you can interpret the "MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index" in two parts. The company selection is covered by the rules of the MSCI US REIT Index . And t...
by Tyler9000
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Figuring out your Asset Allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 2138

Re: Figuring out your Asset Allocation

How have you gone about determining your AA? Personally I'm big on using data to make informed decisions, so I made a bunch of spreadsheets to evaluate different asset allocation options. I share them here if you're interested: https://portfoliocharts.com/ Additionally, I read in an old book that y...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What famous investing quote reminds you of your investing style?
Replies: 135
Views: 6079

Re: What famous investing quote reminds you of your investing style?

My favorite investing quote was actually written about bread:

"It's all about a balancing act between time, temperature and ingredients: That's the art of baking."
by Tyler9000
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 376
Views: 54258

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

I suggested to the author of Portfolio Charts for these reasons that an option to select a starting year other than 1970 be provided on the website but he disagreed. I disagree because Portfolio Charts already studies every start date simultaneously rather than just the period starting in 1970. :wi...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jun 14, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking Historical Returns for an International Index
Replies: 20
Views: 1374

Re: Seeking Historical Returns for an International Index

decabler: I could not find the information. Can you give me a link to the annual total returns? Taylor You can download the most recent spreadsheet from Siamond's post here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2520&p=5178028#p5178028 Open it and go to the sheet called "Raw Data". ...
by Tyler9000
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking Historical Returns for an International Index
Replies: 20
Views: 1374

Re: Seeking Historical Returns for an International Index

Bogleheads: I would like to add historical annual international stock returns for my "Historical Statistics" post. Can anyone give me a link? I've learned that the MSCI World Ex-USA Index was "launched in 1986" but I cannot find annual returns going back that far. Thank you and best wishes Taylor J...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young investors and bonds
Replies: 94
Views: 5063

Re: Young investors and bonds

Any references to the data behind the idea that bonds improve risk-adjusted returns compared to 100% stocks? Not that I don't believe you, I would just enjoy seeing the data to look into more on my own. Thanks for the reply. I think you may enjoy this article. I wrote it a few years ago, but your q...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3.2% SWR for 60 years - 0%, 20% or 33% bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 2695

Re: 3.2% SWR for 60 years - 0%, 20% or 33% bonds?

Tyler9000's work is great but the perpetual withdrawal rates show on his website are (to put it politely) to be taken with a large grain of salt. How long is a very long retirement? 50 years? How many 50 year cohorts have there been since 1970? Exactly one and it just ended 6 months ago at the end ...
by Tyler9000
Wed May 20, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 259
Views: 61918

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

MikeRIA wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 12:29 pm
I just found portfoliocharts.com. Looks really interesting.
Is there a subscription fee or is it free?
Thx in advance!
Portfolio Charts is my gift to the investing community and is completely free. Enjoy!
by Tyler9000
Tue May 19, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?
Replies: 18
Views: 2196

Re: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?

Hello bogleheads, I have a few questions about the 4% Rule and would appreciate your insights: 1. If history is not indicative of future results, how can we use the 4% Rule (which was a study of past performances) to dictate our future plan? 2. The trinity study was based on US market. How would in...
by Tyler9000
Fri May 15, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 488

Re: Simulated Portfolio

As anon_investor already mentioned, try using the Backtest Asset Allocation option in PV. That follows the underlying indices rather than the individual ETFs and generally has more history. Building on Felix's points about different data options, you can also try the Simba Spreadsheet maintained by ...
by Tyler9000
Thu May 14, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15676

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

For example, gold doesn't grow, pays no dividend, and has a long-term expected return of zero. According to standard thinking, one would expect a portfolio with a sizable allocation to a zero-yielding asset to have a lower safe withdrawal rate than one with only stocks. Luckily, we can test that as...
by Tyler9000
Wed May 13, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15676

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Love Ben Felix. I may not agree with every conclusion, but his grasp of complex ideas and clarity of explanations are top-notch. There's a lot more to safe and perpetual withdrawal rates than expected returns alone. This is a very important point I think way too many people miss. The problem with fi...
by Tyler9000
Tue May 12, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age do you use for retirement end date?
Replies: 68
Views: 4269

Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Personally, I plan to live forever. :D Of course, I don't really expect to live forever. I just structure my finances more like an endowment with the goal to maintain the inflation-adjusted principal in perpetuity rather than spend it down to...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 04, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1769
Views: 140602

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

BroIceCream wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 10:38 am
Great article posted this weekend at whitecoatinvestor

Don’t Give Up On Your Small-Cap Value Strategy
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small ... -strategy/
I really enjoyed that article. Thanks for sharing!
by Tyler9000
Mon May 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 3234

Re: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?

Long story short, no matter how you slice the data large growth companies tend to be bigger than their large value peers and have a proportionally higher influence on indices that measure cap-weighted returns. Interestingly, of the top 50 companies in Total Stock Market, 28 are in Vanguard's Value ...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 04, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 3234

Re: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?

Tyler, if you're a little bored at home, it would be cool to reproduce SimpleGift's chart, but using CRSP breakpoints instead of those terribly skewed 2x3 fixed buckets which do not map to any kind of investible reality... Just a suggestion! :wink: Challenge accepted. :wink: Doing it justice requir...
by Tyler9000
Mon May 04, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 9089

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

Two more data points for discussion: Ben Carlson recently wrote about the same topic and Lawrence Hamtil wrote something similar last year (with an interesting perspective on how sector bias may play a part). Honestly I'm still not sure where I fall on the premise. Some of the data is compelling and...
by Tyler9000
Sun May 03, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 3234

Re: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?

Nice charts, SimpleGift! Here's another way to look at it. Fama-French also sorts every company on several exchanges into one of 100 different buckets (10 size deciles x 10 valuation deciles). This chart shows each of those 100 buckets scaled by their historical average market weights (since 1927). ...
by Tyler9000
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Nomura investment portfolio for US citizen in Japan
Replies: 24
Views: 1621

Re: Nomura investment portfolio for US citizen in Japan

Most of my questions involve what do on the Japanese side. Most past posts on this forum suggest a 50/50 split between US and Japan-based investments to reduce currency risk, but I am a little unsure about how to allocate that much. While I don't know the best answer to that question, I can at leas...
by Tyler9000
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 Years Old Trying to Build a Lazy Portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2396

Re: 25 Years Old Trying to Build a Lazy Portfolio

My honest advice: use the Fidelity Four-In-One Index Fund. It's basically a 3-fund portfolio of 60% US stock, 25% international stock, and 15% total bond. It is by far the cheapest fund available to you, at 0.11% ER. If your desired asset allocation is anywhere near this, it's probably worth compro...
by Tyler9000
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio visualizer tool for US and non-US holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 414

Re: Portfolio visualizer tool for US and non-US holdings

You might try Portfolio Charts . It doesn't have data for specific ETFs, so depending on the funds you're interested in it might not work for what you're trying to model. But it does have data for lots of different international indices, and it automatically translates the numbers to the currency an...
by Tyler9000
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 856
Views: 57159

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Gufomel wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:10 pm
Got it, thanks. Thought I was probably missing something. On the latter point, so duration can actually be greater than maturity? Thought that wasn’t possible.
To my knowledge nothing in the math prevents it. But I'm always happy to learn.
by Tyler9000
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 856
Views: 57159

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

The chart indicates that this bond starting at 1% (close to the average YTM of the TLT ETF) would experience about a 24% increase in value. However, the effective duration of the TLT ETF is only about 19 years, so something seems off. The proper measure for the x-axis of the chart is the weighted a...
by Tyler9000
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio Performance during Covid
Replies: 5
Views: 864

Re: Lazy Portfolio Performance during Covid

While it's not an ongoing daily scorecard, this compares a bunch of lazy portfolios during the big initial market drop:

Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
by Tyler9000
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179225

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I wonder the same thing-- I'm feeling nervous about anything in my portfolio with LTT exposure. I haven't heard any really good commentary (from someone like Browne, Swedroe etc.) on whether LTT still fits. I'm no Harry Browne, but to me long term treasuries are as effective as ever in the Permanen...
by Tyler9000
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ELI5 Small Cap Value historical performance
Replies: 24
Views: 791

Re: ELI5 Small Cap Value historical performance

Any chance you can explain that like I am 5 (ELI5)? I am new and trying to make sense of all the hype on small cap value but obviously feel like this stuff is important and I want to understand it better. While the last article I posted is admittedly pretty technical, here's another that starts muc...
by Tyler9000
Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ELI5 Small Cap Value historical performance
Replies: 24
Views: 791

Re: ELI5 Small Cap Value historical performance

Asked another way: Is this historical data assuming that if you grab stocks when they are small cap value (microsoft or apple before anyone really knew about them) that you ride them all the way to the top when they leave that original asset class or does it account for how current ETFs and index f...
by Tyler9000
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Retirement Calculator? - Testing if I have enough to retire?
Replies: 26
Views: 1945

Re: Best Retirement Calculator? - Testing if I have enough to retire?

Here's my own spreadsheet that I made to study the retirement performance of any combination of index funds and spending rules that you like. For Bogleheads outside of the US, note that it can also run the numbers using the currency and inflation of a dozen different countries. Investing pessimists ...
by Tyler9000
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Treasury
Replies: 48
Views: 2350

Re: Long Term Treasury

Does anyone have a good resource to help me understand what factors lead to ups and downs with TLT? If you’ve got a few minutes to hunker down and read, this article will walk you through how bonds work. It covers everything from the basic profit drivers like interest and capital appreciation all t...
by Tyler9000
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?
Replies: 20
Views: 1765

Re: What is the 30-year total return for S&P500 or VTI?

But here's my question: If I invested some money in the VTI fund like my coworker does, what can I expect it to look like in 30 years, when I reach age 65 and (hopefully) retire? If I have $50,000 saved up (which is a lot to me, but probably not a lot to many of the forum members here), and I inves...
by Tyler9000
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 8
Views: 834

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Thanks for posting. I think I'm realizing that at this point in my life I'm a bit too cowardly to maintain the Coward's Portfolio. Is the relative success of the Larry Portfolio in this short span almost all due to his 30:70 allocation, or did his choice of stock categories have a major impact in r...
by Tyler9000
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 8
Views: 834

Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

With the recent coronavirus-driven market turmoil, I've noticed an uptick of discussion about how different asset allocations are handling the downturn. Since I track lots of different portfolios, I thought it might be educational to compare all of them over the month immediately following the marke...
by Tyler9000
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it not possible to build a recession proof portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1670

Re: Why is it not possible to build a recession proof portfolio?

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:39 pm
...or is it?

I wrote this last year and it's certainly timely today. Long story short, no portfolio is completely recession-proof but some are definitely better at handling economic downturns than others.

The Top-4 Portfolios to Recession-Proof Your Investments
by Tyler9000
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7271

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

The FIRE movement is all about financial resilience and not being so dependent on work income to get by. They'll be fine. If anything, they're far more prepared for this type of market turmoil than most people. When the layoffs start and people are looking for direction, FIRE may become more popular...
by Tyler9000
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth vs. Value driven by sectors not cheapness
Replies: 19
Views: 1060

Re: Growth vs. Value driven by sectors not cheapness

Here is some interesting research on how value indices most commonly used have overweighted financial services and energy since the have been followed/created: https://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/how-inflation-makes-the-value-factor-a-sector-bet/ Very interesting read. Thanks for sharing.
by Tyler9000
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reason to hold bonds as an accumulator?
Replies: 50
Views: 1941

Re: Reason to hold bonds as an accumulator?

Everyone is different, but I'm a fan of bonds at all stages in life. Long-term stock averages mask a lot of really difficult times, and in my experience diverse portfolios including bonds and other assets are more dependable, efficient, and sustainable for most investors. It's difficult to succinctl...
by Tyler9000
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other
Replies: 153
Views: 11427

Re: Three Fund Vs Butterfly Fund or other

No guarantee my numbers are correct but from the close of 2/19/20 to today (3/9/20) I have: SPY: -18.95% 60/40: -9.51 (SPY/VGIT) Permanent Portfolio: +1.19% (using GLD,VGLT, VGSH and SPY) My emphasis - I wonder if Tyler9000 has any figures. To me seeing how these portfolio's are playing out in real...
by Tyler9000
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused by Bonds and interest rates threads
Replies: 12
Views: 804

Re: Confused by Bonds and interest rates threads

Bonds make money in two ways -- interest payments and capital appreciation due to changing market rates. Long term treasuries are particularly sensitive to rate changes, so their capital appreciation (or loss) can easily dwarf the interest payment. And they get more and more volatile the lower rates...
by Tyler9000
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 376
Views: 54258

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

klaus14 wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:58 pm
may i suggest replacing GLD with GLDM? it's from the same firm and cheaper.
The list is overdue for an update, so I appreciate the suggestion! GLD is the biggest gold fund in the business and has its place, but I can always make room for more options.
by Tyler9000
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 376
Views: 54258

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:19 am
I would like to invest in this portfolio. What are the best funds (ticker symbols) to buy into for each category?
"Best" is a matter of interpretation, but here is a list of ticker options appropriate for each asset type.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/i ... ndex-funds
by Tyler9000
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14937

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

acegolfer wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:14 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYO7xrHhqsY

Youtube published today discussing this FF paper.
Terrific video. Thanks for sharing!
by Tyler9000
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Good portfolio visualizers that support non US domiciled ETFs?
Replies: 24
Views: 1869

Re: Good portfolio visualizers that support non US domiciled ETFs?

Thanks all for the replies, these look useful. However, it seems none of these support the ETFs I plan to hold in my portfolio, including VDEV :( Portfolio Charts can help. You just have to think beyond tickers and understand the indices they track. In this case, VDEV tracks large and mid cap stock...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14961

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

I'm not certainly not criticizing your work at all. What you've done is fantastic. Personally, I find 1970-present data to be good enough for most purposes. Even if this does overestimates SWRs by .3%, that should be fine because nobody should be cutting it that finely anyway. If someone is expecti...
by Tyler9000
Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14961

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

If we conclude that world wars “don’t count” then I wish we had the remaining data. We do instead have the 4% and 5% success rates in these countries, so that helps. Yes, I think it would very useful for Wade Pfau to do the same study but just using 1950-present or 1960-present numbers. But maybe n...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 104925

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Thanks! I am going to write a detailed article in a few weeks, when the 2019 inflation numbers will be more solid, but here is a quick preview of SWR numbers. ... Awesome work as usual, Siamond. I like how you lay out the country-specific withdrawal rates side by side, and it'll be really interestin...
by Tyler9000
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 104925

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

EnjoyIt wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:30 pm
Thanks Hal...uhh...I mean Tyler
You're welcome, Dave. :wink:

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:58 pm
You can switch the 'home country' in Portfolio Charts to the U.K., Germany, Japan, and Canada.
And with the latest update, many more!
by Tyler9000
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 718
Views: 104925

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I wonder if adding 1966/67 would change those numbers significantly. That is when 4% failed so I figure the same will happen here. Good question, and I provide data for that here: https://portfoliocharts.com/withdrawal-rates-faq/ The short story is that while it does depend on the portfolio, multip...