Search found 16 matches

by needtosave
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 116
Views: 10345

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

I also want to point out that from about 1982 through about 2012, (I may not have my time period exactly right) that Long Term Treasuries outperformed Stocks. Did the equity premium disappear? Something to think about. What's really interesting is that if you look at the Dimson-Marsh data, and excl...
by needtosave
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing without past performance data
Replies: 27
Views: 1935

Re: Investing without past performance data

1 a) I don't think the point is estimating low credit risk bond expected returns, though even so the presumption of essentially zero credit risk must be inferred in part from past performance. But retry this statement with junk bonds and it clearly doesn't work. In that case historical results will...
by needtosave
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do You Find Employment Today?
Replies: 20
Views: 3232

Re: How Do You Find Employment Today?

I'm not sure if this helps, and I'm younger than you, but here's my story. 1) First job out of college was with the company that I interned with in college. 2) Second job, I knew the owner personally 3) Third job, I knew the hiring manager personally 4) Current job, applied online and got the job wi...
by needtosave
Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing without past performance data
Replies: 27
Views: 1935

Re: Investing without past performance data

Without past performance data you wouldn't know the risk of investing in stocks. Or whether stocks are expected to return more than bonds over the long term. You wouldn't know anything about risk vs. return. Exactly. The other posts and perhaps it's the OP's idea, assume the question is about predi...
by needtosave
Sat Aug 29, 2015 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Options with STEM and LSA
Replies: 30
Views: 2443

Re: Career Options with STEM and LSA

I think the need for STEM graduates is often exaggerated, although STEM is so broad that's it hard to generalize. A lot of the low and mid level work is being out-sourced unless you have a job that requires someone to physically be on site versus could be done anywhere with a laptop and internet con...
by needtosave
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?
Replies: 20
Views: 2163

Re: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?

Have you thought about technical sales? The biggest factors in your wealth at retirement will be in order of importance: 1) household income (including stock options, 401k matches, etc) 2) living frugally or at least below your income 3) don't get divorced 4) investment returns Actually, an inherita...
by needtosave
Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3990

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

In general no, but there could be exceptions. If TIPS yields ever reached 4% real again, I would be very tempted to be 100% bonds. That's partially market timing, but it's mostly Bernstein's theory "if you've won the game, why keep playing?"
by needtosave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone actually used gold or silver coins for a purchase?
Replies: 57
Views: 7818

Re: Has anyone actually used gold or silver coins for a purchase?

You don't bring a stack of US cash overseas and expect stores to accept them at the current going rate, do you? Anecdotally, I knew a pilot for private jets and some of his clients traveled to some less developed countries. They kept stacks of US $100 bills in case they were forced to refuel or con...
by needtosave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 56
Views: 10022

Re: Too Much Indexing???

Remember also that efficient markets aren't required for indexing to work. As a group, all investors earn the market return. For someone to outperform, someone else has to underperform. If you index, you won't be underperforming. But market returns themselves will generally be awful ... People like...
by needtosave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone help me understand China
Replies: 31
Views: 5081

Re: Can anyone help me understand China

You can't believe any number out of China. Government, industry or corporate. It is all fiction. That is your starting point, everything else flows from that. To some extend can't you say the same thing about US companies? Google things like Enron, Worldcom, the whole dot.com bomb, real estate sale...
by needtosave
Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192638

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

You could add *anything at all* actually specific to the case at hand. :D AQR could use a Bonferroni correction in all their papers, although I thought I mentioned that in an earlier post. And even in terms of the vague generalities you can't seem to proceed beyond, it would seem you've in contrast...
by needtosave
Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192638

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Again for example (maybe fourth, fifth time mentioned and not answered?) carry as a way to make money in currency trading is common knowledge. The fact that something is "common knowledge" that it has made money in the past is an indication that it was tested years ago. That might tell you whether ...
by needtosave
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192638

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

But note the comment in OP of that thread "It's less of a problem if you start with a theory and then test it than if you just run tests (aka data mining)." It still doesn't mean it can't be a problem, but again if we're going to actually talk about the concepts in this fund, the research as a whol...
by needtosave
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192638

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The multiple hypothesis testing and all the related statistical problems with "significance" levels are very well known (and plague many fields of study including finance and economics) and I think anybody with any exposure to statistics at least knows them and basic fixes (cludges?) like Bonferron...
by needtosave
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192638

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Johno, Probably my fault for trying to condense this down to forum posts. Think about what independent means in this context. Think about what out of sample means. Think about publication bias. Think about the differences in performance of hypothetical portfolio constructs and their behavior in the...