Search found 265 matches

by jadd806
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 16987

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

I happen to think that its a VERY forgiving investment. Take my family for instance. My parents randomly bought real estate starting in '92, and bought a new property once every 5-7 years roughly. Now, several million in real estate equity, and ~$80K in annual net income. And guess what? They didn'...
by jadd806
Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9656

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Successful international investing requires a serious understanding of what is going on in the economy of that country, IMHO. You can't get that just by reading The Economist or WSJ. You need to be there frequently and/or live there. See all the investors who jumped into BRICs. Or all the foreign i...
by jadd806
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching young folks how to save for retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 1951

Re: Teaching young folks how to save for retirement

I think that this is a good topic for workplace mentors to pass on some knowledge, especially in the absence of some sort of government-mandated financial literacy training (i.e. a high school class). Unfortunately most of the time I hear older workers talking about the stock market they refer to it...
by jadd806
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Garmins & Fitbits: Worth it for non-athletes?
Replies: 43
Views: 2836

Re: Garmins & Fitbits: Worth it for non-athletes?

Fitbits are junk. Most owners seem to be on an annual replacement schedule. They're also overpriced for the features offered. I had some hope for the company when they acquired Pebble's IP, but so far they've put none of it to good use. I have an Amazfit Bip (usually $80, but frequently goes on sale...
by jadd806
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 112
Views: 13603

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Probably. Totally anecdotal, but every single first time buyer I know is 2-3 missed paychecks away from complete financial ruin. Somehow they are getting mortgages with 0% down, at 6-7% interest. I know several millennials who have gotten mortgages for 5x their income by juicing their paychecks with...
by jadd806
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight
Replies: 44
Views: 4742

Re: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight

I do notice that my left leg is bent to the side and presses into the door while I drive, but I'm not using it. Red flag right there. How’s that going to feel if someone or something hits the door with substantial force right there? How’s that going to feel on a long road trip, potholes, vibrations...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight
Replies: 44
Views: 4742

Re: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight

More on topic, I have a buddy who is 6'3" who test drove the Insight. I asked him about the center console thing and he said he didn't notice it and had a few inches of clearance when his right leg was straight. Are the people who complain about this just sitting wrong? I'm 6''1" and I don't see why...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight
Replies: 44
Views: 4742

Re: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight

I've been eyeing the Insight as well. My Prius still has several years of life left, but I'm tired of other cars on the road "bullying" me because I drive a Prius. I read about this before I got the car and chalked it up to an exaggeration by those obnoxious hyper-milers who impede traffic (and who...
by jadd806
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do YOU pull the trigger for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 53
Views: 4009

Re: When do YOU pull the trigger for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]

Rarely, if ever, do I recommend TLH. If you think about it, all you’re doing is reducing your basis. So you’re really just kicking the can down the road, because when you sell that asset in the future, you’ll have a higher gain, and wind up paying back all that money that you thought you saved. The...
by jadd806
Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight
Replies: 44
Views: 4742

Re: Think I have found my new commuter car - 2019 Honda Insight

I've been eyeing the Insight as well. My Prius still has several years of life left, but I'm tired of other cars on the road "bullying" me because I drive a Prius. I read about this before I got the car and chalked it up to an exaggeration by those obnoxious hyper-milers who impede traffic (and who ...
by jadd806
Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How would you proceed?--car accident
Replies: 22
Views: 1814

Re: How would you proceed?--car accident

Since he was irate, he probably thinks you sped up to prevent him from getting in your lane to make his turn; this will be his only defense. So his company will take on the "no fault" fight with your side. Depends on rules and regs in your area of course. Will be interesting to see how it turns out...
by jadd806
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 5168

Re: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks

This has happened before, so not sure why it wouldn't happen again, or how it can be "intellectually dishonest" to expect that when we already have evidence from the past that it happens. Playing with the historical data that I have, the longest outperformance scenario that I can find is that 90/10...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 5168

Re: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks

Historically, an 80/20 split between stocks and bonds has delivered roughly the same compound returns as a 100% stock allocation but with much less in the way of drawdowns and risk. Every analysis I've ever seen to "prove" this point is historical cherry picking. 1982 was the start of a bull market...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 5168

Re: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks

Historically, an 80/20 split between stocks and bonds has delivered roughly the same compound returns as a 100% stock allocation but with much less in the way of drawdowns and risk. Every analysis I've ever seen to "prove" this point is historical cherry picking. 1982 was the start of a bull market...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 5168

Re: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks

Well yeah, if you perfectly timed the bottom of the greatest stock market crash in modern history of course you would have made quite a bit of money. In reality: - You would have been rebalancing all the way down, so your entire 25% in fixed income does not convert to equities at the bottom of the c...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?
Replies: 33
Views: 3427

Re: Is the growing national debt a reason to diversify with international?

You don't need a "reason" to hold international stocks at market cap weight (roughly 50%). You're buying the haystack. If not for all the outdated US-centric views from 6+ decades ago on this forum, it would be the default Bogleheads equity portfolio. Those who decide to actively tilt their portfoli...
by jadd806
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?
Replies: 114
Views: 7223

Re: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?

Adding safety techs are good and I have no problem with that, but for me, the most safety is yourself: don't drive and text, I don't even bother to answer cell phone while driving; I can turn my head to check blind spot so I am not worried if the blind spot detection sensor is failed, ... GEICO is ...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cat's dental work costs
Replies: 31
Views: 2259

Re: Cat's dental work costs

We've started brushing his teeth with CET enzymatic toothpaste once per day That sounds like fun! How do you even go about it? I've got an elderly cat and we have an appointment for her to get her teeth looked at this week. I've been dreading being told something like this. It's much easier with tw...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdraw 401k for Down Payment
Replies: 20
Views: 1469

Re: Withdraw 401k for Down Payment

You simply can't afford the house right now. You're probably better off waiting anyway. The housing market has been buoyed by 30+ years of falling interest rates and the tide may be turning. Most people aren't smart enough to figure out the effect of the new tax changes on the deductions they used t...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cat's dental work costs
Replies: 31
Views: 2259

Re: Cat's dental work costs

I was quoted a similar amount a couple weeks ago from a vet in the Greater Boston area for our 5 year old cat. We just adopted him a few months ago. We've started brushing his teeth with CET enzymatic toothpaste once per day and adding Oxyfresh water additive to his water bowl at the recommendation ...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to change tires; and what brand
Replies: 131
Views: 8617

Re: When to change tires; and what brand

I change around 3/32 or 100k miles, whichever comes first. I only buy Bridgestone or Michelin since I trust them and most other brands don't even offer hybrid tires.
by jadd806
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11413

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Man, this topic has been getting rather tired lately. We're seeing like 1-2 threads per week essentially saying the same thing. The funny part is they always seem to be started by the 100% US crowd. Just look at how the most recent thread titles are worded: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stoc...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11413

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11413

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Man, this topic has been getting rather tired lately. We're seeing like 1-2 threads per week essentially saying the same thing. The funny part is they always seem to be started by the 100% US crowd. Just look at how the most recent thread titles are worded: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stock...
by jadd806
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Funds for 23 year just starting out
Replies: 7
Views: 491

Re: 401k Funds for 23 year just starting out

1/3 in bonds at 23 with no assets is far too conservative. I don't think young investors need to worry about bonds until they hit the threshold of 1-2x income invested. My first recommendation was going to be just 50/50 US/international and no bonds, but it doesn't look like she has a decent interna...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4489

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Shouldn't "serious money" already be fully invested such that there's nothing left over to buy dips? Serious money is invested not only in equities, but also in bonds. So bonds can be sold and the money used to buy equities. If you're trying to rebalance to bring your portfolio back in line with yo...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4489

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

i love market corrections. who needs academic studies when the best indicator out there is CNBC "Markets in turmoil" Special reports. you may be early buying dips but that is when the serious money is made. keep it simple. Shouldn't "serious money" already be fully invested such that there's nothin...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone done a Hair Transplant?
Replies: 79
Views: 5996

Re: Anyone done a Hair Transplant?

I can spot a transplant almost as far away as a comb over. You wouldn't be fooling anyone. Just shave your head close or completely and leave people guessing. You might be able to, but most people are not Norwood spotters and cannot tell the difference between a good transplant and a natural hairli...
by jadd806
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5435

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

I can't wait for the next 3-5 year period where EM or international crushes the US stocks. Those threads will be entertaining:) It is easy when an asset is soaring to say that it is all you need. Getting that article published when the sector is underperforming is a lot harder:) +1 Recency bias is ...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kirkland (Costco) Razor
Replies: 31
Views: 3223

Re: Kirkland (Costco) Razor

1 blade to cut the hair... 2 blades to drag along the skin behind and cause nicks/irritation? It's a wasteful marketing gimmick. Go double edge and you can cut your shaving costs by 80% compared to these and get a better shave. A decade ago when I was still getting ripped off to shave I used what ap...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets
Replies: 158
Views: 13973

Re: Correlation between the FIRE movement and one of the greatest bull markets

The short answer is I don’t know. In fact, there is much I don’t know about FIRE. For example, how prevalent is this movement? Bogleheads and regular visitors to Mr. Money Mustache are certainly aware. However, I have not personally heard it reference by anyone socially or in a work environment. Do...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year
Replies: 163
Views: 5770

Re: Root of Good's cost of raising a child: $3,300 per year

$100 a month for each child's food? Do they grow their own food and have the kids help them? Do they own cows and chickens for milk and eggs? If so, the time they spend doing this is worth a lot more than what they spend. Kids eat very little. I can eat very decent/healthy fodd with 200$ per month,...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7562

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

Another reason for bonds: Rebalancing helps you make money off volatility. Bonds have a really bad year -> opportunity to rebalance from stocks to bonds Stocks have a really bad year -> opportunity to rebalance from bonds to stocks The "rebalancing bonus" is a myth over any meaningful time period. ...
by jadd806
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7562

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

If you saved over your whole career, putting all your savings in stocks, and then lived another thirty years after you retired in September, 1929 or January, 1966, you would have have seen the market drop and not return to your pre-retirement level for the rest of your life. Eyeballing the numbers,...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: School Loan debt vs
Replies: 15
Views: 1269

Re: School Loan debt vs

The equity in our house has risen $200K in just four years (we went out of our way to buy in an up-and-coming area). If we had waited around to buy a home (we're in Boston), we would now have to pay an extra $1,000 a month to buy into the same neighborhood and kind of house. So because you got luck...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8091

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

- The CAPE ratio might be permanently higher due to indexing lowering costs for investors (an interesting argument that I had not heard of before) Does anybody have more information related to this point? I also have never heard of it before. I tried to search the web and found nothing. A counterpo...
by jadd806
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 2846

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

The real "recency bias" at work on this board is the impression that bonds are a safe alternative to stocks on account of a 35 year bull market in bonds 1982-July 2016. Ignoring the past 27 month "correction" in bonds, virtually no investors have experienced a bond bear market in real terms. Why wa...
by jadd806
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 23 with 130k cash to invest in index funds need help [Australia]
Replies: 7
Views: 758

Re: 23 with 130k cash to invest in index funds need help [Australia]

It is smart of you to ask this question since the US only comprises 50% of the world's stock market capitalization. I would recommend that you invest in the entire world of equities. You can do this with a single fund like Vanguard's Total World Stock Index. This will effectively give you your "fair...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?
Replies: 172
Views: 8780

Re: Can Sneakers go with Business Casual?

Some people seem to be getting pretty worked up about this topic. They must be upset that they have to play "dress up" every day. :twisted: I judge people by their level of physical fitness far more than what they're wearing. A fit person in a polo (sneakers or not) will always look more professiona...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: State Farm nickel-and-diming me
Replies: 61
Views: 5576

Re: State Farm nickel-and-diming me

Why are you getting involved? Your insurance company works with State Farm and tells them to fix it. I’ve had this problem severaltimes (all no-fault accidents involving the other party’s insurance) and after a few phone calls it gets resolved. No, my insurance company is not involved. We filed no ...
by jadd806
Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee
Replies: 108
Views: 10533

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee

It doesn't exactly work out evenly, I pay for all groceries, which is a joint expense, I pay both our cell phones, another joint expense, I pay for most if not all of our dinners out, I also put more into my 401k than she does. But there also needs to be some accountability and reward for earning m...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee
Replies: 108
Views: 10533

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee

Don't do it. She might change in the short term to make you happy but after the "honeymoon" phase is over she will revert back to the mean Cut bait and move on. Harsh words but I agree. I'm around the same age as the OP and the information in his post would be a HUGE red flag for me. Look, nobody w...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee
Replies: 108
Views: 10533

Re: Massive Student Loan Debt - Fiancee

It is no wonder, given how frugal you are, that you are attracted to someone who is a bit out of control you are. Even if you do break it off with this person, your future SO will likely have similar beliefs about money. "Opposites attract" is armchair psychology. It comes down to simple odds: if 1...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 231
Views: 16155

Re: iPhone XS Max

I think the XR is going to sell HUGE. 98% of the utility of the XS for 75% of the price. But how can I show that I'm rich, successful, and better than you if I don't have the golden iPhone XS Max? The XR is clearly for poor people. Anybody who cares enough about specs to know that the XR/XS are nea...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iPhone XS Max
Replies: 231
Views: 16155

Re: iPhone XS Max

I think the XR is going to sell HUGE. 98% of the utility of the XS for 75% of the price. But how can I show that I'm rich, successful, and better than you if I don't have the golden iPhone XS Max? The XR is clearly for poor people. Anybody who cares enough about specs to know that the XR/XS are nea...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2305

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

it makes me rethink placing my allotment of International in my not-quite-as-cheap (Vanguard) Roth and taxable. To answer your question rather than debate the particulars of the I Fund change: If you can do this without creating a taxable event, go ahead. If the bulk of your international is in you...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 21434

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

jadd806, <<I probably end up with less money in the end compared to 100% equities. >> Or not. There were times when bond return higher than stock. Please note that the real world does not have to meet expectation. As per the example again, for 100/0, with a 50% drop, you need to double to recover. ...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 21434

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

jadd806, <<I probably end up with less money in the end compared to 100% equities. >> Or not. There were times when bond return higher than stock. Please note that the real world does not have to meet expectation. As per the example again, for 100/0, with a 50% drop, you need to double to recover. ...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 21434

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

It's worth noting that the S&P 500 almost exactly doubled in the years following Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exuberance" speech in December of 1996. I'll stick with 100% equities until I approach the point where expected returns eclipse my contributions. Until then I've got time, hum...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 21434

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

It's worth noting that the S&P 500 almost exactly doubled in the years following Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exuberance" speech in December of 1996. I'll stick with 100% equities until I approach the point where expected returns eclipse my contributions. Until then I've got time, hum...