Search found 1343 matches

by Ariel
Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Personal Index - Now a Standalone Application
Replies: 184
Views: 72691

Quick question to the Bogleheads as I finish up the next version: The next version allows for a commission to be entered for a trade. This is factored into the performance, but not the cost basis. Should the total cost basis include all commissions previously paid? I have gone back and forth on thi...
by Ariel
Wed Jan 27, 2010 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Big VIG
Replies: 9
Views: 2829

ddb wrote:Sigh...

Image
Interestingly enough, Hormel is #70 in the list of VIG holdings as of 9/30/09. But I don't think that was your point :lol:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsA ... bleIndex=1
by Ariel
Wed Jan 27, 2010 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Big VIG
Replies: 9
Views: 2829

VIG is horrible as are any "dividend" indexes. People who invested in them literally lost their shirts the last 2 years, because financials cut their dividends, were subsequently removed from the dividend index, and thus the losses were locked in, and index shareholders did not participate in the r...
by Ariel
Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC adopts new money market fund regulations
Replies: 16
Views: 3988

Re: SEC adopts new money market fund regulations

The provisions include: 1. Funds must hold a minimum 10% of assets in liquid cash or treasury securities. 2. The average maturity of the debt a fund can hold is reduced from 90 days to 60 days. 3. A net asset value or value of each share of a money fund -- would be disclosed on a 60-day lag. Item 3...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 17, 2010 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard TRF funds are almost fatally aggressive
Replies: 62
Views: 9965

Most of us plan to be investors until we die, and many invest keeping their heirs in mind. After 70.5 if you have no earned income, what vehicle do you use to invest other than a taxable account? You might not make NEW investments, but you should still have the bulk of your EXISTING investments wel...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 17, 2010 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard TRF funds are almost fatally aggressive
Replies: 62
Views: 9965

Falstaff, I don't think you're interpretting that quick screen tool advice correctly. It's not "how many years to retirement?" but more like "when will you need the money?" When you start a retirement, you need some money now, some in 5 years, some in 10, etc, out to 30 or more years in some cases. ...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 17, 2010 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with international vanguard funds....
Replies: 19
Views: 3578

My earlier post was to say that you should follow your AA What I actually do, because of restrictions on the funds available to me now, is to swap VG total market for VG emerging markets in my VG account. Elsewhere I purchase Fidelity Spartan Total Market and Fidelity Spartan International (with no...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 17, 2010 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with my calculation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1582

I still don't get why my accounting for inflation is wrong. I think that you've also made a big error in r below: r = 0.0703 = .01 + 2*.03 + .01*.03 It should be something like: r = 0.0703 = .01 + 2*.03 /2 + .01*.03 since each semi-annual inflation adjustment would be for only half a year's inflati...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 17, 2010 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with my calculation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1582

Re: What's wrong with my calculation?

Hi Bogleheads, This question is directed to the number tinkerers on the forum. I'm trying to understand a calculation on the Bogleheads Wiki and I'm totally mystified. On the I-bonds page , under "Caveats", there is a sample calculation that goes like this: here is the after-tax, after-inflation va...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 16, 2010 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Many Investors Keep Fooling Themselves"
Replies: 35
Views: 5884

It was in a similar spirit to this article that I constructed this poll several weeks ago. I asked people what long-term rate of real return (net of inflation and costs, but not of taxes) they expected (in the sense of a mathematical middling outcome, not a certainty) to get from their own portfolio...
by Ariel
Wed Jan 13, 2010 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX 0.05%
Replies: 38
Views: 6179

Re: VMMXX 0.05%

Ok, so when it hits 0.00% where do I go? If I go to CDs I am moving out to greater risk. Doesn't 0.00% require a re-evaluation somewhere? Are you worried about VG breaking the buck? I am worried about that possibility, and have been for quite some time. (I posted on it months ago.) Several, maybe m...
by Ariel
Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street employees deserve their large bonuses
Replies: 11
Views: 1649

grunel wrote:Is this the best troll post you could come up with? Be a little more creative.
I'd say it was very creative. Almost as creative as the accounting the bankers use to justify their bonuses :wink:
by Ariel
Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P down 8.53% today? What the heck???
Replies: 48
Views: 14088

I think something funky is going on with the yahoo feed. Check out the 10 and 30 year treasury quotes. Each are down almost a full percentage in yield. Bloomberg contradicts, i think yahoo is having a decimal issue. Yahoo has been having a lot of decimel issues with bond yields since the new year s...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P down 8.53% today? What the heck???
Replies: 48
Views: 14088

Now here's an incredibly scary one. Futures for S&P, NASDAQ and Dow have all just gone to ZERO in the last few minutes. :shock: http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/ They also have moved the date back - or forward - to December 10. When did the Mayans say the world was gonna end? :( :cry: Edit: Fixe...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P down 8.53% today? What the heck???
Replies: 48
Views: 14088

nisiprius wrote::?: :?: :?: :?: :?:

Huh? Were reported numbers for the S&P ever actually 8.5% down at any point this day?
No, it was all some bogus afterhours mis-quote from a data feed.
by Ariel
Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P down 8.53% today? What the heck???
Replies: 48
Views: 14088

It seems a bit of a wild ride. To be losing 80 thousand in one day. Maybe 100 thousand the next. In this forum there was question about living on 50K a year. Many responded that they live on much less. So some do live on 80 thousand for 2 years! And some of you lost 80K today (for a while). But yet...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 1447
Views: 673589

Congratulations on the continued progress! I hope 2010 brings you many more rewards, monetary and especially otherwise.
by Ariel
Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Astonishing Trivia
Replies: 16
Views: 2891

Beware the Ides of March?
by Ariel
Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuethinker, thoughts on dividend yields in Europe vs USA?
Replies: 7
Views: 2197

Valuethinker, thoughts on dividend yields in Europe vs USA?

In another thread about investing in a specific fund http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=48490 Valuethinker wrote something that got me wondering Dividends are a corporate finance disaster. Pay tax twice. Once on corporate profits, once in shareholders' hands. For the stock market as a w...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Bernstein's Wisdom: What is Wealth?
Replies: 7
Views: 2014

Re: Peter Bernstein's Wisdom: What is Wealth?

Thanks, Lbill, for an excellent article. Peter L. Bernstein had a remarkably rich view of the nature of risk. It's always enlightening to read his perspective. --Pete I agree, that's a terrific article to read, a very nice mix of caution without pessism . All the more impressive that he wrote it in...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A Question about excess contribution to a Roth IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 648

This website discusses possible solutions.

http://www.fairmark.com/rothira/excess.htm
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Could you/do you live on $50,000 a year?
Replies: 356
Views: 78308

I know exactly how much income we've earned via employment = I. I know exactly how much we've added to investment accounts = S, being sure to exclude employer matches (since I don't count those in earnings) I don't see why you wouldn't count them. I don't consider deferred compensation as income in...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors' Irrational Optimism
Replies: 50
Views: 8165

Let's not forget Vanguard Wellington at 8.14% since the summer of 1929.

But also let's not forget survivor bias ... those funds that went to zero (or otherwise underperformed) and no longer exist.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... st=tab%3A1
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Could you/do you live on $50,000 a year?
Replies: 356
Views: 78308

I find it incredibly easy to track my household's spending each year. I just don't obsess about the categories, since we save plenty. I know exactly how much income we've earned via employment = I. I know exactly how much we've added to investment accounts = S, being sure to exclude employer matches...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Planning Calculator
Replies: 9
Views: 2190

Re: Nice spreadsheet!

I agree that's a nice spreadsheet - with one caveat below. But, like Pete, I'd play with the numbers. For example, my conservative outlook would be for bonds to return 4% and stocks 6% nominal so, with 3% inflation, 1% and 3% real returns. In that case, you'd need to save for 37 years given the spre...
by Ariel
Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Your Portfolio Shoud Be Near an All Time High
Replies: 53
Views: 8972

I think Nisiprius sums it up pretty well. The past two years and the past decade were great, provided you used a hindsight portfolio, BAAP (Beardstown-Accepted Accounting Principles) and lowered the bar a few feet. So why are some writers so anxious to put lipstick on this pig? The answer is obviou...
by Ariel
Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jaffe:Bad news ahead for mutual fund investors
Replies: 10
Views: 2818

I think the very low MM yields are just what the Fed wants. It pushes people out of these funds and either into banks - which helps to build their asset base - or into higher risk investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. However, I fear that the result may be inflated values of bonds and stocks.
by Ariel
Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 284
Views: 33688

919
by Ariel
Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 2010 Boglehead hedge fund contest?
Replies: 45
Views: 7180

After careful consideration by the panel of esteemed judges, the winner for best name is ariel's Ariel Bombardment Fund. His (her?) longs get a 1% discount and shorts a 1% premium. (Given Monday's price movement, it will be welcome. ;)) Thanks, Norbert! I'm delighted to win the hedge-fund naming co...
by Ariel
Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what was the 2009 total return?
Replies: 18
Views: 4269

natureexplorer wrote:Which typo?
You wrote 24.464

The value in the table is 26.464

Is that clear enough now? :lol:
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what was the 2009 total return?
Replies: 18
Views: 4269

S&P 500: 24.464% http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3D20091231_totalreturn.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio Smackdown Winners Announced
Replies: 23
Views: 15027

Interesting. I beat all 28 of them over the 2007/2008/2009 timeframe with a cumulative return of +23.7% 8) That despite my relatively weak +10.7% in 2009 return, which beat only one of the listed portfolios. It sure helps to avoid big losses :idea: I'm seeing that VWIAX returned 9.4% for the three ...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excess contribution to roth
Replies: 5
Views: 829

http://www.fairmark.com/rothira/excess.htm

Here's a site that lists possible remedies.
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio Smackdown Winners Announced
Replies: 23
Views: 15027

Great Information! Mad Money Machine: Lazy Portfolio Results for 3.2 and 1 Years http://madmoneymachine.com/2010/01/04/lazy-portfolio-results-for-3-2-and-1-years/ Out of 28 Lazy Portfolios All 28 (100%) were positive in 2009 Only 2 (7.14%) were positive in 2008/2009 Only four (14.29%) were positive...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what was the 2009 total return?
Replies: 18
Views: 4269

VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund) returned 28.7% including dividends.
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was it a lost decade for you?
Replies: 58
Views: 8024

The response is so funny so far....most people perform over 200% and this is the indexers hall of fame site? This means without adding money. Let me put in a "nice" way...you don't know basic math or you mis-calculate....or maybe you invested everything in gold. BTW, I did about 9% annually. In thi...
by Ariel
Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2008/2009 Personal Returns (thru the Great Recession)
Replies: 32
Views: 4907

I must be missing something. How can you can have -50.5% the first year and +37.8% the next year and end up with +5.5% for both years? Start with $100, after the first year you would have $49.50 and after the second year you would have $68.21 That would be the same as having a return of -17.41% bot...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 03, 2010 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 2010 Boglehead hedge fund contest?
Replies: 45
Views: 7180

The Ariel Bombardment Fund is flying your way. It's da bomb!

Long
JNJ
WMT

Short
CBG
F
by Ariel
Sun Jan 03, 2010 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2009 annual returns thread
Replies: 104
Views: 16663

2008: +3.6%* 2009: +10.7% 2009 has been an interesting year for me as an investor. It's the best of times, the worst of times, and the median of times, all at once. Worst: Since I began investing in 1991, this year's return is the largest margin by which I've trailed Vanguard's balanced fund. VBINX ...
by Ariel
Sun Jan 03, 2010 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2008/2009 Personal Returns (thru the Great Recession)
Replies: 32
Views: 4907

+3.6% in 2008, and +10.7% in 2009, so that's about 14.7% across the two years combined. (These percentages are returns on investments.) I avoided all of the drop in 2008 by staying almost entirely out of stocks except for some trades and such, but then I also missed most of the big recovery with my ...
by Ariel
Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost of Living, geometic average,how to lie with statistics?
Replies: 22
Views: 3568

LH wrote: "I have never understood geometric averages". Hint: Geometric averages are at the very heart of understanding risk and reward over long periods of time. It's why the statistical variation (unpredictability) in returns over time matters. As for your example on inflation calculations, I agre...
by Ariel
Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Overstate Difficulty of Stock Picking?
Replies: 189
Views: 27765

Statsguy - Very impressive performance. Congratulations. Your return profile looks almost like a balanced portfolio, say the Wellington fund (link below). Yet yours is all stock, though with a high yield twist. Do you also own bonds and, if so, what percentage and type? I'm wondering if you've tried...
by Ariel
Sat Dec 26, 2009 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Overstate Difficulty of Stock Picking?
Replies: 189
Views: 27765

Thanks, Bill. That's pretty similar to the way I've been selecting stocks for the last few months. My 12 main holdings are ABT (Abbott), CVX (Chevron), JNJ (Johnson & Johnson), KMB (Kimberly Clark), KO (Coca Cola), LLY (Lilly), LMT (Lockheed Martin), MCD (McDonalds), NVS (Novartis), PM (Philip Morri...
by Ariel
Sat Dec 26, 2009 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-year treasury note, maybe still a good deal?
Replies: 12
Views: 2786

10-year treasury note, maybe still a good deal?

Lots of discussions about the steep yield curve, about the risk of inflation, and about how the flight to safety has driven up prices on US treasuries (and thus their yields down). Lots of posters appear to be retreating toward TIPs and/or shorter duration bonds. On the other hand, some investors li...
by Ariel
Sat Dec 26, 2009 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Overstate Difficulty of Stock Picking?
Replies: 189
Views: 27765

I too am enjoying this discussion. billspetrino: would you care to share your favorite 5 picks for the long run? (As of this point looking forward, not back in time.) Thanks!
by Ariel
Sat Dec 26, 2009 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dark side of umbrellas
Replies: 59
Views: 8280

Paladin wrote:That's making a very big bet on a single entity and liquidity is a major issue.
I agree, liquidity is the real issue here. What if we have a drought, and you need to sell your umbrellas then?
by Ariel
Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury MM yield down to 0.01%
Replies: 39
Views: 5789

All these zero and slightly negative yields on short-term, secure, and liquid investments is what Japan faced when their stock-market crashed. And we all know how well that that has turned out for investors there :oops: :cry:
by Ariel
Tue Dec 22, 2009 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobin's q and CAPE update
Replies: 67
Views: 7160

I think maybe it is just best to go back to the magic wallet paradigm that I read in Andrew Tobias book The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need . Every investment is a wallet that has money magically appear every year. The wallets are for sale with different price tags. 2% TIPS wallets sell fo...
by Ariel
Mon Dec 21, 2009 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Utilities Index Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 6944

Why not put the money in VG Long Term Treasury Bond fund yielding 4% if yield is all care about? If you care about tax efficiency, then dividends are terribly tax inefficient and you are better off selling a low-dividend stock-fund with long term capital appreciation in small amounts throughout the...
by Ariel
Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Covered Calls
Replies: 26
Views: 4730

When you write options (whether selling puts or calls), you are a small business person selling insurance policies with your own capital as backing.

Nothing more, nothing less. If you don't understand that, then you probably should stay far, far away from options.