Search found 93 matches

by ljb1234
Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 was a great year for individual stock pickers
Replies: 63
Views: 4691

Re: 2020 was a great year for individual stock pickers

I realize this forum does not generally advocate individual stock picking. But you should at least be aware that 2020 was a fantastic year for many of those who do pick individual stocks. In my own case I got many years of typical returns in one year from individual stocks and the value of my indiv...
by ljb1234
Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?
Replies: 105
Views: 6182

Re: Why do we even need a fund to track the market?

Assuming this is a legit question (big assumption), you may be able to accomplish some of this using "stock slices". I know Schwab and Fidelity offer these. It allows you to create a pseudo etf. It solves some of the problems mentioned, but you still would have to do a lot of maintenance t...
by ljb1234
Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Notes taking for math, computer science
Replies: 36
Views: 1782

Re: Notes taking for math, computer science

Microsoft Surface with pen and keyboard.
You will be able to run code and install compilers on it. You can even run Linux in a VM.
More versatile.
by ljb1234
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pay $120/year for iCloud or switch to Google Photos
Replies: 48
Views: 3530

Re: Pay $120/year for iCloud or switch to Google Photos

I use Google photos during the year and at the end of the year, I download everything (at their quality storage settings) and back up to my NAS. I do not find any reduced Google Photo file image quality to be noticeable. Photos are limited to 16MP and videos to HD (1080P). I do have an Android phone...
by ljb1234
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oddly Difficult to Find Items During the Pandemic
Replies: 307
Views: 29183

Re: Oddly Difficult to Find Items During the Pandemic

baking supplies (ie. yeast). did everyone start baking geez? We are going to have a lot of bigger folks when no one can buy exercise equipment and everyone is baking like crazy. yes there is a HUGE baking trend now for people bored at home and are trying to limit going out for food.... Angel Food c...
by ljb1234
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7560

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

When China closed Wuhan shouldn’t I have converted my VTSAX to money-market since I should have known an epidemic never stays local? Worst case scenario, if I had pulled the funds out, I would’ve been out of the market for 2-3 months and could put money back in VTSAX if nothing happened? Im in my 3...
by ljb1234
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections
Replies: 51
Views: 3511

Re: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections

I'm more concerned about what low bond returns will do for balanced portfolio than what a diversified portfolio of stocks will do. Stocks are certainly risky, but they have a chance of doing something better, bond yields are telling your precisely there return (which is next to nothing). That said,...
by ljb1234
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections
Replies: 51
Views: 3511

Re: Why does the 4% rule work when the markets have huge corrections

I'm more concerned about what low bond returns will do for balanced portfolio than what a diversified portfolio of stocks will do. Stocks are certainly risky, but they have a chance of doing something better, bond yields are telling your precisely there return (which is next to nothing). That said,...
by ljb1234
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18703

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

You'll regret this move later. You'll torture yourself even more trying to figure out on when to get back in. If you can't handle a 50% drop, you shouldn't be in equities at all. "If You Can’t Stomach 50% Declines in Your Investment You Will Get the Mediocre Returns You Deserve" -Charlie ...
by ljb1234
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 84
Views: 10628

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

I feel sorry for the OPs father. I also agree with a risk reduction plan. It should let him sleep at night and have a some chance if inflation kicks in. NOTE to self. Think hard about a Target Retirement Fund when ready to retire (not too far away). If you retired in 2015 with Vanguard 2015 Target f...
by ljb1234
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13598

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

I follow lots of timing systems (don't use them) How do you do it? Portfoliovisualizer? I use that and I also have several Google Sheets setup with indicators. Its mostly an exercise to convince me that its almost impossible to consistently time using a system. I have not found one yet that works w...
by ljb1234
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13598

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

One last thing, if I was under the age of 50 (I'm not), I wouldn't do a thing (As in sell anything), unless you need the money for survival. This could be the best buying opportunity of the decade. What do you recommend for those of us over 50 - sell now? If you need the money you have to, otherwis...
by ljb1234
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13598

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

1. Hindsight is 2020. Everyone is second guessing themselves that they should have sold out. Even Ray Dalio admits he didn't see it, how could I? 2. There are more market timers here than I would have thought. I follow lots of timing systems (don't use them) and most would have been caught up in thi...
by ljb1234
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Courses gone online, how to conduct exams?
Replies: 35
Views: 1099

Re: Courses gone online, how to conduct exams?

Not sure what the subject you are teaching, but for the class, I will use a combination of slack and zoom. Slack will work well for office hours. Zoom will work for lectures, since they can be recorded and saved. Can be watched live if they want to. For exams, I think that a take-home type exam is t...
by ljb1234
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planned to pay off debt, now wondering if liquidity is more important.
Replies: 37
Views: 3284

Re: Planned to pay off debt, now wondering if liquidity is more important.

I would:

Pay off all debt
Apply previous debt payments to rebuild emergency fund
Cut up credit cards after emergency fund rebuilt.
Save and invest.. don't borrow in the future except for mortgage.
by ljb1234
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20919

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

The fed is not cutting rates so that we can all have our equity portfolios recover to new highs. They are dumping liquidity into the market. Equity recovery is one of the things they are hoping for, even though they won't say it (at least that's the idea). Remember TINA? There is no alternative. Le...
by ljb1234
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much could we theoretically lose?
Replies: 128
Views: 10673

Re: How much could we theoretically lose?

I figure around 50% from the highs. I have no real basis for that other than it feels like 2008 type of panic. We are down almost 30% from the peak. Think about that. 20% more to go, if that's true (I hope not!). This is a real risk tolerance checkup. If you were 60-40, you are down to around 55-45 ...
by ljb1234
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6394

Re: Total Bond Market Down >4%

Treasuries are doing OK today. BND is not just Treasury bonds.
Things could change alot by end of day. Who knows?
by ljb1234
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unmarried home ownership, joining his preexisting purchase
Replies: 72
Views: 3809

Re: Unmarried home ownership, joining his preexisting purchase

Don't do it. Pay rent if you must. Run, don't walk away from this "contract".
by ljb1234
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent has ALS; Need Financial & General Advice
Replies: 68
Views: 2953

Re: Parent has ALS; Need Financial & General Advice

OP, Your mother has substantial assets for her medical care. Use them. Why should taxpayers pay for her when she can pay herself? That is not fair and probably not legal. regards. Just to clarify, of course her assets will be used for her care. And we're not talking about doing anything illegal her...
by ljb1234
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent has ALS; Need Financial & General Advice
Replies: 68
Views: 2953

Re: Parent has ALS; Need Financial & General Advice

OP,

Your mother has substantial assets for her medical care. Use them.
Why should taxpayers pay for her when she can pay herself? That is not fair and probably not legal.

regards.
by ljb1234
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major
Replies: 131
Views: 11307

Re: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major

Faculty member at one of schools on your list here... Lots of good suggestions in this thread. I agree that a Tier 1 school will get your foot in the door when looking for a job after graduation more easily. But after a few years it does not matter as much where you went to school. You have to be ab...
by ljb1234
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Replies: 129
Views: 9411

Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

I am guessing the OP was not invested in 2008... That was fear. Go back on this site and read some of the comments from then. At 10%-12% decrease is well within a "normal" range. This is good reality check to all the people that feel their risk tolerance is high. Maybe it is not, though. T...
by ljb1234
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1293
Views: 123687

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

If I were 34 again, I'd be 100% total market index. Period. Now that I am 52, and hope to retire in 8 years, I'm 62% stocks, 35% TIAA Traditional and bonds, 3% (and growing steadily) TIAA Real Estate. Turn off the TV, ignore the noise. No one knows nothin'. This!^^^^^^^^ I was going to say the same...
by ljb1234
Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1293
Views: 123687

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

If I were 34 again, I'd be 100% total market index. Period. Now that I am 52, and hope to retire in 8 years, I'm 62% stocks, 35% TIAA Traditional and bonds, 3% (and growing steadily) TIAA Real Estate. Turn off the TV, ignore the noise. No one knows nothin'. This!^^^^^^^^ I was going to say the same...
by ljb1234
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you drive without a spare tire?
Replies: 193
Views: 11966

Re: Would you drive without a spare tire?

I just switched the tires on my car from run flats to non-run flats. I never liked the stiff ride. Of course, there is no spare tire, so I bought a can of Fix-a-Flat and a 12v air compressor and put them in the trunk area. I have not had a flat in years, but I figure this guarantees I'll get one. If...
by ljb1234
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 2/3 'correction' - Hussman makes his case.
Replies: 58
Views: 6143

Re: S&P 2/3 'correction' - Hussman makes his case.

Remember:

"Economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions"
by ljb1234
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: intrigued and puzzled by Schwab offer to waive fees on Vanguard mutual fund purchases
Replies: 9
Views: 1595

Re: intrigued and puzzled by Schwab offer to waive fees on Vanguard mutual fund purchases

as I've stated in other threads, if you've got enough in Schwab, they offer you the option of having one or two other companies funds at no cost ( I've got Vanguard set up for mine). It's possible that the office you use has seen that you have vanguard funds and wants to make you aware of that opti...
by ljb1234
Mon May 20, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting Ready for Windows 10
Replies: 39
Views: 3503

Re: Getting Ready for Windows 10

For file backup, you might just want to turn on "File History". Its similar to Time Machine on MacOSX. It will automatically backup files and folders of your choosing to an external storage device, with revisions saved too. For full disk backup, there is still the "Backup and Restore&...
by ljb1234
Mon May 13, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 67
Views: 4685

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Great question... A 3 fund (which I use) could probably survive without any rebalancing, but someone would still have to decide which of the 3 funds to extract the expenses from. A novice might be overwhelmed, especially if you have large balances. The alternative is to switch to a single fund, such...
by ljb1234
Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the wife and I have house fever? Want to buy 550k home
Replies: 35
Views: 4433

Re: Do the wife and I have house fever? Want to buy 550k home

No way would I do it, but its up to you. You will be house poor. What if it starts to need repairs?

And you can make $140K/year in a lot lower cost of living area in a tech field. Lots of green grass elsewhere for half that amount of house money. Let us know what you do.
take care,
by ljb1234
Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Initial Portfolio Assessment - So Very Excited
Replies: 13
Views: 1882

Re: Initial Portfolio Assessment - So Very Excited

Emergency funds: Yes, not included in the below. Debt: $14,000 Car Loan <4% Tax Filing Status: Single Tax Rate: A recent substantial increase in annual employer income pushed me from Federal 2x% tax bracket to 3x% tax bracket. Ouch. State income tax about 9%. More ouch. State of Residence: CA Age: ...
by ljb1234
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: switching over Target Index Fund in Schwab to VG [investment advice needed?]
Replies: 8
Views: 530

Re: switching over Target Index Fund in Schwab to VG [investment advice needed?]

I’m not sure I’m following your logic. If your goal is to move to Vanguard only to use ETFs, why don’t you just stay at Schwab and use their ETFs instead? If anything, you’ll probably pay slightly less at Schwab. I kinda liked Vanguard in how they do their minimum automatic investment where there i...
by ljb1234
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Execution
Replies: 17
Views: 1837

Re: Dual Momentum Execution

Hello, I've read Gary Antonacci's book about dual momentum investing and thought it was interesting and thought provoking. For those of you who understand this strategy or perhaps use this strategy, I have a question. You have taken a YTD loss in whichever S&P500 index you are invested in. I'm ...
by ljb1234
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engineers come in.
Replies: 108
Views: 8925

Re: Engineers come in.

BS/MS EE here. Maybe a bit cold, but in the first semester mechanics class the professor started the class with something along these lines... "Look to you left, look to your right. If you make it through the program they won't". He was right less than 1/3 made it. Blowing off a first yea...
by ljb1234
Sun May 13, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College laptop for fall 2018 freshman
Replies: 82
Views: 7054

Re: College laptop for fall 2018 freshman

As an engineering faculty member, I would advise an engineering student to get either a Surface Pro with Keyboard or a Surface Laptop. Since I require most work to be submitted electronically, they can do the assignments on their computer with the stylus. It eliminates the need to somehow digitize t...
by ljb1234
Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement - On the fence, need sanity check
Replies: 53
Views: 11252

Re: Early Retirement - On the fence, need sanity check

Thanks everyone, for your insights. Its helpful to have other's opinions before I take this big step. Most of you have given your thumbs up, which supports my decision to go. I know I have to watch expenses and there is wiggle room in my budget, for sure. I will take it as it comes. Thanks again! H...
by ljb1234
Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need Options - Honda Accord Incredibly Uncomfortable Seats
Replies: 135
Views: 35715

Re: Need Options - Honda Accord Incredibly Uncomfortable Seats

finite_difference wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:12 pm Does your Accord have leather seats?

Is it not possible to replace a car seat for $1-2k? And keep the old car seat if you want to reinstall it back to stock? Could take a car seat from a used Acura or something?
+1
by ljb1234
Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing Tires on BMW X3
Replies: 31
Views: 17162

Re: Replacing Tires on BMW X3

This post caught my eye because I have just purchased at 2017 X3, CPO, with 9,500 miles. One question I have: will standard tires give better performance that run flats? I recall that when run flats first came out I read a lot in sports car forums about how inferior their performance to standard ti...
by ljb1234
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 7368

Re: International Bonds

+1 Valuethinker
by ljb1234
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford it: Dodge Challenger
Replies: 122
Views: 9887

Re: Can I afford it: Dodge Challenger

Can you afford it? No

Even though loan rates are low, if you can't afford to pay cash, you shouldn't buy it.

But you are an adult and don't need anyone's permission.
by ljb1234
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 71
Views: 18178

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

I'm not aware if anyone is "lauding" Wellington or Wellesley. I just ran a screener and made an observation that I found pretty shocking. Certainly anyone that doesn't believe in coincidences and rare repeatable, multi-decade long lucky streaks despite an active fee headwind would find it...
by ljb1234
Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: 401K Match
Replies: 99
Views: 21698

Re: Poll: 401K Match

2 to 1 match with a max match of 9%.
Ex:
contribution=1%, match=2%
contribution=2%, match=4%
...
contribution>=5%, match = 9%
by ljb1234
Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allen Roth article on how to get 5% income
Replies: 16
Views: 4038

Re: Allen Roth article on how to get 5% income

The Wizard wrote:Sadly, that article is blocked...
:(
Try from his Twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/Dull_Investing/stat ... 2574218244
by ljb1234
Sun May 28, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 6226
Views: 1420911

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

tludwig23 wrote:Just saw A Man Called Ove. Very good. I'd highly recommend for anyone.
+1
by ljb1234
Tue May 23, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 4900

Re: Why Invest in Average?

I don't think "average" is the right analogy for an index fund. To use a golf analogy, the index is equivalent to " par ". Which, for golf, can be defined as "the number of strokes a first-class player should normally require for a particular hole or course." As a golf...
by ljb1234
Tue May 23, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 4900

Re: Why Invest in Average?

I don't think "average" is the right analogy for an index fund. To use a golf analogy, the index is equivalent to " par ". Which, for golf, can be defined as "the number of strokes a first-class player should normally require for a particular hole or course." As a golfe...
by ljb1234
Tue May 23, 2017 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 12286

Re: Net worth is overrated

With all due respect, I do not know what prompted you to send this but I assume something involving yourself. I defy you to show me how somebody with 10 million dollars net worth can be in a worse position than somebody with nothing. I wouldn't say NW is overrated nor meaningless, but to simply ans...
by ljb1234
Wed May 10, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time savers - life on automation
Replies: 57
Views: 10037

Re: Time savers - life on automation

dratkinson wrote:
ljb1234 wrote:I designed and built my own garage door closer.
How?
I used an Arduino microcontroller with a limit switch to indicate when the door was open. A relay was used to close the contacts typically wired to a button near the door to the house. A little software and that was it.