Search found 4428 matches

by triceratop
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Being tax efficient
Replies: 4
Views: 367

Re: Being tax efficient

Are you familiar with deductible IRAs, HSA?

You could also try searching using the keyword “deductible”.
by triceratop
Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 23
Views: 1750

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

Please keep discussion on-topic and away from economic policy and political discussion. Bogleheads is a personal finance forum which is unrelated to "buying into" any given economic system.
by triceratop
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $540 a month on food for graduate student budget too much?
Replies: 68
Views: 4566

Re: $540 a month on food for graduate student budget too much?

I spend much less ($250 on food) as a grad student, but I can relate to the desire to not plan any aspects of my life beyond academics. I've definitely had weeks where I have not made any of my own prepared food. However, I capitalize on free food on campus in such situations where possible.
by triceratop
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1596

Re: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

Fortunately mutual funds have figured out a way to avoid the HFT's, that can be used by anyone : Place all buy-sell orders as Market-On-Close orders on the primary exchange. All buy and sell orders placed as Market-On-Close orders will be traded at the close in a single auction (so all the buys and...
by triceratop
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

If your concern with IT treasuries is inflation, diversify them with TIPS and you can earn the term premium of intermediate bonds while taking less inflation risk than if just holding ST treasuries. The main benefit of ST treasuries is liquidity. It looks like my response got lost in the aether... ...
by triceratop
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

My issue with LT treasuries is that the market is driven by insurance companies and pension funds. These institutions are matching LT treasuries to nominal liabilities so they don't need a yield that compensates them for inflation and term risk. I believe the yield of LT treasuries would be much hi...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

I have seen good reasons to not use LT treasuries in general, as market prices for those assets might not be determined in a way that yields a well-compensated return for the risks one takes on. Such structural demand for LT nominals which depresses yields is well-discussed. Anyway, my point was abo...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Historical returns, from beginning of 2008 bear market (Oct 9 2007):

Image

VFISX: ST Trs
VFITX: IT Trs
VUSTX: LT Trs
VTSAX: US TSM

The return spread demonstrated above is such that the max drawdown figures provided above are called into question.
by triceratop
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Well, apparently you think that the analysis was talking about calendars. I seriously can't imagine why you thought that I was talking about calendars. * Maximum drawdown statistics are calculated from simulated monthly balances. * The results assume annual rebalancing of portfolio assets at the en...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 112
Views: 6223

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

The max drawdowns are determined using monthly portfolio returns but rebalancing is only allowed to occur yearly. That is not consistent with the reasoning provided by those who use IT instead of ST. What is so special about the end of the calendar year? If the reasoning you are attempting to dispro...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy T-Bills
Replies: 33
Views: 2648

Re: How to buy T-Bills

Hmmm. OP here. I'm really on the fence here on going all in Vanguard or all in Treasury Direct. I like the auto rollover feature of TD but i know in a couple years I will want to use more of the other portfolio options of Vanguard. Plus it seems on here that everyone ends up at Vanguard. Any other ...
by triceratop
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11874

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

How often are worst-in-a-decade events expected to occur? Why is there a sky falling article written every time, with no recognition that these things are expected to occur with a certain frequency?
by triceratop
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8579

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

triceratop wrote: Why do you quote bond returns in nominal terms when your data allows you to compute bond returns in real terms? I see a 10% real loss in bonds in a single year. That is significantly more loss than -2.6%. triceratop: I quoted bond returns the way stock and bond returns are usually...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put international?
Replies: 35
Views: 3467

Re: Where to put international?

Where can we get all this good info the spreadsheet has (QDI ratio, ...) ? You can find 2015,2016 links in the OP to the 2017 thread. You can get this data from the fund provider (use Google), as I do. Sorry.. I guess I cannot find it. Where do you get QDI for VTI, for instance (URL)? I have to do ...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any kayakers here?
Replies: 60
Views: 3283

Re: Any kayakers here?

I enjoy Kayaking and Canoeing. I don't get to do much of it in California. I am going on a 6 hour canoe trip in the wilderness of the Pine Barrens, New Jersey tomorrow. I recommend everyone check out rivers in this area: some of the best freshwater waters in the mid-east. Pineland Adventures? Pleas...
by triceratop
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Automatically Determine the US/xUS Global Market Weight of Equities?
Replies: 5
Views: 375

Re: How to Automatically Determine the US/xUS Global Market Weight of Equities?

If you only need monthly resolution of the FTSE indices, you can extract the US weight from the Factsheet for the FTSE Global All-Cap index: link
by triceratop
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8579

Re: "Bonds are for Safety" ?

<snip> Listed below are the historical U.S. inflation rates (CPI-U) and total returns for Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index since its inception: YEAR--INFLATION--BOND INDEX <snip> 1980------12.5-----------2.7 <snip> Observation: The Index had only three negative years (all small) reflecting very low...
by triceratop
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8579

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

cfs wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:52 pm
"Bonds are for safety" should be removed from the Bogleheads vocabulary. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
Lumping TIPS in with nominal bond disasters due to inflation crises is an error.
by triceratop
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Big expense in 3 mo. Money now. Where to hide money?
Replies: 13
Views: 1524

Re: Big expense in 3 mo. Money now. Where to hide money?

(1) is untrue; Vanguard Prime Money Market has an SEC yield above 3-month treasuries.

(2) is faulty logic -- the forward looking return on prime money market is not related to the YTD return.
by triceratop
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any kayakers here?
Replies: 60
Views: 3283

Re: Any kayakers here?

I enjoy Kayaking and Canoeing. I don't get to do much of it in California. I am going on a 6 hour canoe trip in the wilderness of the Pine Barrens, New Jersey tomorrow. I recommend everyone check out rivers in this area: some of the best freshwater waters in the mid-east.
by triceratop
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?
Replies: 56
Views: 4390

Re: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?

By the way, Total World Stock ETF is less than 3bp (0.03%) more expensive than a weighted blend of Total Stock Market and Total International Stock Market -- and you get automatic balancing for free. I would not make asset allocation decisions on the basis of a 0.03% ER difference. If I understand ...
by triceratop
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?
Replies: 56
Views: 4390

Re: Why 3-funds and not 4-funds or even 2-funds?

The two primary reasons for not using a single world stock fund are the higher cost and the fixed (44%) international allocation. The Three-Fund Portfolio allows any international allocation. oh, interesting point. Thanks again for your time. It's not a true point, though. Contra to what Taylor sta...
by triceratop
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put international?
Replies: 35
Views: 3467

Re: Where to put international?

BTW It would seem https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement#Advantages_of_taxable_accounts is wrong about international in practical terms, no? In the sense that even considering tax credit, the are just less tax efficient. I was noticing this too. Is the reason for the discrepan...
by triceratop
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 348

Re: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard

I wonder what the global cap weight would be, if all of the US based target date funds skipped international all along and now. I’m sure some crafty person here could run the approximate numbers. ;) At end of 2015 total TDF assets (including bonds) totaled less than $800 billion USD (source: Mornin...
by triceratop
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 348

Re: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard

Hello Everybody, I have a few questions that may be a little strange or unfounded but certainly related to investing. I'm a 100% US investor for what it's worth. 1. Is the rise of international investing trying to make investing politically correct? For example, We can't bet that the United States ...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund Spy - The Vanguard Group Rules
Replies: 6
Views: 1225

Re: Fund Spy - The Vanguard Group Rules

Thanks for the link. I immediately went to see what the "challenges and shortcomings" were :D , and there were the expected mentions of customer service and technology issues, along with outflows from actively managed funds. I'm not sure what Vanguard's customer service or technology has to do with...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds
Replies: 9
Views: 810

Re: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds

I would hold an appropriate amount of EM to meet my asset allocation regardless of whether it amounted to less than 5% of my portfolio. I don't understand how people settled on 5% as a magic number below which an allocation does not affect your portfolio. Don't view it as an allocation less than 5% ...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* article on Taylor Larimore
Replies: 6
Views: 1698

Re: M* article on Taylor Larimore

Which brings me to a suggestion. The three-fund portfolio, to be sure, is simple to implement. But it would be simpler yet if it were a one-fund portfolio. It strikes me that Vanguard might do its investors a favor by bundling Taylor's three funds into a single offering: Vanguard Total Index Fund. ...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds
Replies: 9
Views: 810

Re: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds

1 & 2 is probably what I would do, but do consider any possible changes you foresee in your tax rates due to changes in personal situation in the coming years. I try to avoid giving universal advice on this, and just provide the data. Personally I expect my tax situation to change a great deal in t...
by triceratop
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds
Replies: 9
Views: 810

Re: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds

1 & 2 is probably what I would do, but do consider any possible changes you foresee in your tax rates due to changes in personal situation in the coming years. I try to avoid giving universal advice on this, and just provide the data. Personally I expect my tax situation to change a great deal in th...
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put international?
Replies: 35
Views: 3467

Re: Where to put international?

I don't use total international. I've put developed large cap blend and value in taxable, EM and small cap in Roths. So my tax rates aren't relevant. But it's easy enough to use the spreadsheet and figure out the numbers for VTIAX/VXUS. I note that they are very close to VTI for the 12%/6% in trice...
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anthony Bourdain Leaves $1.2M Estate
Replies: 7
Views: 2797

Re: Anthony Bourdain worth only $1.2 million

Locked: not actionable See the forum https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules for off-topic discussions which include, among others: ...discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers...
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anthony Bourdain Leaves $1.2M Estate
Replies: 7
Views: 2797

Re: Anthony Bourdain Leaves $1.2M Estate

Locked (non-actionable).

Note that donations to charitable causes would not be reflected in any of what has been reported.
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds
Replies: 9
Views: 810

Re: Relative tax efficiency of total international funds

1. Yes, modulo changes in tax efficiency due to differences in expense ratio. 2. Yes, unless you're feeling generous towards the IRS. 3. It means it would have been more efficient in 2017. What that means for the future is unclear. 1. Yes, I use IXUS over VXUS in taxable. 2. IXUS is an excellent tot...
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Management Justification
Replies: 33
Views: 1828

Re: Active Management Justification

Does the benchmark fund includes reinvested dividends? Because I bet his active fund does. There are also plenty of active funds that will outperform in a retirement account for ten years but to know which they are in advance is the tricky part. In that growth chart VXUS also includes reinvested di...
by triceratop
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11874

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

The discussion is veering into economic policy, which is forbidden (see rules); please stay on topic.
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 4978

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

All the factors have to be in the total market, from whence they are distilled. It's just that the amount of the total market variance that many of them account for is pretty small. So, you can cull out stocks that load on a particular factor and get more juice from that factor. Or you can do that ...
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense ratio and holding cost, which is more accurate?
Replies: 6
Views: 582

Re: Expense ratio and holding cost, which is more accurate?

As mentioned above, the "Total Cost" in my spreadsheet is not really "Total Cost" in the sense meant by Morningstar. I would characterize total cost as the sum of the negative part of tracking error and tax cost. However, I use expense ratio as an approximate metric for tracking error, because I rea...
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11874

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Hi Doc. I understand where you're coming from. Yes, the references that don't include the words Primary Dealers are to institutions other than the Primary Dealers. If Bloomberg or Reuters, both of which aim their news at financial services professionals, meant Primary Dealers they would have said P...
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 4978

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

CULater wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:21 pm
I heard there's a new fund about to be listed. They take every known factor and mix 'em all up together. They're going to call it the Total Market Fund.
If I buy two products which are short the market and long the market, respectively, I make money no matter what the market does, right?
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pricing equities / Shouldn't I be putting my money in Int'l?
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Pricing equities / Shouldn't I be putting my money in Int'l?

Historical dividend growth numbers draw may be an imperfect future predictor given that a substantial amount of cash returned to shareholders is done through share buybacks. If the data is nonstationary like this, using simple formulas can give incorrect results.
by triceratop
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18071

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Did they make a similar forecast ten years ago, and, if so, what did it say? I'm semi-serious about that. You should see if you can find an email address for Dan Kemp and ask. Haven't had any luck finding an email address, but I think this is him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dan_the_analyst?lang...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4416

Re: yield curve inversion

The definition of an inverted yield curve is and I think always has been one which credit-riskless instruments (treasury) bear yields which are not monotonically nondecreasing with respect to term. I don't know if this is true or not (can you cite a source?), but let me see if I can even parse what...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4416

Re: yield curve inversion

Yield curve inversion is a very clear technical description; it's hard to imagine the definition being mushy enough to allow for significant shifting. Do you have evidence backing the impression that the definition is shifting? I think back in the olden days everybody would compare the 3 month T-bi...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4416

Re: yield curve inversion

The definition of an inverted yield curve is and I think always has been one which credit-riskless instruments (treasury) bear yields which are not monotonically nondecreasing with respect to term. More generally I suppose one could look at the yield curve of other asset classes. Quoting one paragr...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?
Replies: 38
Views: 2579

Re: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?

If you don't have a well-established reason to tilt, just don't do it. It is possible to have a well-established reason to tilt and not be certain of how much you want to tilt by. I can easily give you a minimum and a maximum that I am comfortable with. I doubt that without context my number is of ...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 4416

Re: yield curve inversion

The definition of an inverted yield curve is and I think always has been one which credit-riskless instruments (treasury) bear yields which are not monotonically nondecreasing with respect to term. More generally I suppose one could look at the yield curve of other asset classes. Quoting one paragra...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 124
Views: 9310

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

Pretty sure the long term play for them is to sell their customer list and UI/platform tech. After all, they are popular with the young and affluent.....or at least the young and interested. Some financial firm or bank is going to eventually want to buy the customers An open question is how many of...
by triceratop
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free
Replies: 124
Views: 9310

Re: Vanguard to offer non-Vanguard ETFs commission-free

Pretty sure the long term play for them is to sell their customer list and UI/platform tech. After all, they are popular with the young and affluent.....or at least the young and interested. Some financial firm or bank is going to eventually want to buy the customers An open question is how many of...