Search found 30 matches

by d
Thu Mar 27, 2008 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Austan Goolsbee: "should not save in 401(k) accounts&qu
Replies: 30
Views: 7958

since a creation of government, i suppose there's good reason to be suspect of these (and related) beasts ... but my cynicism hasn't kept me away.
by d
Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a thought on inflation protection
Replies: 11
Views: 2932

Re: Don't give them too much credit...

craigr wrote:Don't give the Fed too much credit on managing the economy. There are plenty of times in US history where serious financial troubles hit and the Fed couldn't do anything about it.
worse still: there are too many times when the Fed aggrevated the troubles! (that said, i believe the Fed has done a good job over the past 20 or so years.)
by d
Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Groupthink and Investment Choices
Replies: 32
Views: 8136

while "group think" can be both good and bad, i sense more than a smidgen of "performance chasing" which is reinforced by the "group think" -- a dangerous combination.
by d
Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New (safer) asset allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 4863

i've long felt that cash has been a greatly undervalued asset; in addition to the sleep factor, cash returns are not unattractive relative to bonds at the moment. (but do keep in mind that there is a potential return penalty.)
by d
Thu Jun 14, 2007 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WTH? Ben Stein's "Perfect" Portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 10669

Does anybody remember 5 years ago, when the "diversifier" and can't-miss-choice was ...
that, of course, is so often the problem: too many don't remember such things.
by d
Thu May 03, 2007 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the most you've paid for a watch?
Replies: 88
Views: 39670

the most i ever paid was about $100 ... but the one i now wear (and will repurchase when needed) was about $12
by d
Thu May 03, 2007 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance Duce
Replies: 3
Views: 1863

ditto

ps: but i do care
by d
Fri Mar 30, 2007 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Contribution - tax filing requirement
Replies: 2
Views: 1452

nothing for you to file ...
by d
Sat Mar 24, 2007 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help a young investor allocate his ROTH contribution
Replies: 9
Views: 4227

i'm on the same page as Laura: "Don't over diversify small amounts of money" ... in additional to something like Target Retirement 2050, you might consider Life Strategy Growth ... when the portfolio is larger, you could then move into individual funds.
by d
Sat Mar 17, 2007 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes up . . . becomes very popular
Replies: 4
Views: 2372

i agree. not only should we expect performance chasing by individuals, but need to keep in mind that it likely finds its way into AA recommendations. i suspect the "conventional wisdom" re international, submerging markets, commodities, gold, and reits reflects this.
by d
Wed Mar 14, 2007 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money market accounts vs. funds
Replies: 8
Views: 3389

1) as mentioned, make sure you're comparing the yields correctly.
2) while MMAs are insured, as a practical matter MMFs are quite safe so this is not a major consideration
3) a big difference, however, depending on how you plan to use the account, lies with restrictions. with a MMA you'll be limited on the number of withdrawals per month; with a MMF you'll be limited on the minimum size of withdrawals (but not usually on the number)
by d
Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard REIT vs TIAA-CREF Real Estate.
Replies: 35
Views: 25306

BrianTH wrote:Just my two cents, but I think in the end we need to push back against the idea that every asset class should be categorized as either equity or fixed income. That may be a helpful classification system when you are first investing, but if you are actually getting to the point where you are considering a separate allocation to something like REITs, then I think you should take them on their own terms, and not try to force them into an overly simplistic classification framework.
totally agree. especially since directly owned real-estate is so uncorrelated with both equity and fixed income ... it is a class by itself.
by d
Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 246
Views: 52837

BrianTH wrote:d,
Well, that assumes "sales exposure" to an international market is the same thing as owning equities in that international market. That doesn't strike me as a plausible assumption.
Brian: i'm not making that assumption ... nor do i think that assumption is implied in the original statement. i'm just passing on the observation, you can make of it as you wish.
by d
Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 246
Views: 52837

food for thought!?

"The S&P 500 has so much total international-sales exposure, your stock portfolio might not even need a separate international component for diversification. ... About 45% of the revenue of S&P 500 companies comes from outside of the U.S., and that figure could hit 50% by the end of the year, according to Silverblatt, the S&P analyst."

from Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
Mar 7, 2007
by d
Thu Mar 08, 2007 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity/LifeTerm: scam or good deal for young investor?
Replies: 14
Views: 6283

renewable term! ... it was the only way i could afford the level of protection needed, in turn preventing me from making someone else wealthy at my expense.
by d
Thu Mar 08, 2007 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Mkts. What % of TOTAL retirement AA
Replies: 32
Views: 15313

i have about 25% of my equities (about 65% of total) in international funds, which in turn hold perhaps 15% in EM ... so that's 2.4% of the total portfolio
by d
Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Safe Withdrawal Plans Neglecting Spending Reality?
Replies: 34
Views: 16343

planning your withdrawal strategy on the assumption that you will be spending less as you age, is likely a self-fulfilling prophecy
by d
Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad & Poor Dad, Robet T.
Replies: 37
Views: 22138

Re: sleazebag

Zander wrote:dangerous sleazebag
well said!
by d
Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad & Poor Dad, Robet T.
Replies: 37
Views: 22138

doing a dis-service to everyone who buys into his crap!
ditto ... i have further comments, but will restrain myself in the interest of good taste.
by d
Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what's your REIT allocation?
Replies: 51
Views: 91956

the question posed is for REITs per se
by d
Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP holdings
Replies: 31
Views: 17513

i understand them, but don't own 'em
by d
Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign ownership of US Debt- explanation?
Replies: 15
Views: 6562

i've heard it said: we have a good deal with China; we buy their cheap goods and they buy our cheap paper.
by d
Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Greenspan Recession
Replies: 15
Views: 7566

bbbuuuttt ... he never said he was expecting a recession. what he did say, and what certainly makes sense, is: "While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment ...". the media like to hype whatever they can hype, often without regard to the facts.
by d
Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what's your REIT allocation?
Replies: 51
Views: 91956

what's your REIT allocation?

i'm curious to know what allocations Diehards might have for REITs, and your opinions of their current valuation.
by d
Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IE Browser Spell Checker
Replies: 3
Views: 3450

many thanks to kcyahoo for the iespell reference ... i've been needing such a beast!
by d
Mon Feb 26, 2007 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD's
Replies: 25
Views: 13696

fatwallet http://www.fatwallet.com/t/52/682884/ generally has the most current and highest rates listed ...
by d
Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD's
Replies: 25
Views: 13696

I have thought about transferring a part of my IRA to PenFed solely to get their higher CD rates
good rates aside, there's another good reason to go with an IRA CD at PenFed: there are no early withdrawal penalties! so you can lock-in for 7 yrs and if rates rise, simply trade-in for the higher rate.
For IRA Certificates only: If the owner has reached age 59 1/2 or is permanently disabled, as defined in the Internal Revenue Code Section 72(m)(7).
by d
Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swensen's Moron Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 4936

when reits have had their day, the chart will not likely look so good.
by d
Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swensen's Moron Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 4936

almost 4, but not quite equal parts:
30% US Stocks
20% REITs
20% Foreign Stocks
30% Bonds (He recommends short term US and TIPS)

... perhaps you meant William Bernstein's No-Brainer Portfolio
25% in Vanguard 500 Index
25% in Vanguard Small Cap
25% in Vanguard Total International
25% in Vanguard Total Bond
by d
Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just annuitize and be done with it?
Replies: 52
Views: 23541

apples to apples. SWRs are typically based on some assumed time horizon, i.e. 30 years. to correctly compare an annuity % payout to a SWR the two should be as equal as possible. since the annuity is implicitly assumed to be near 100% safe, the SWR should also use a near 100% probability. if the SWR is based on a 30 horizon, the annuity should be a 30 yr fixed term, not lifetime, single annuitant, with inflation adjustment. when this is done, i think you'll find the annuity % return to be more in line with the SWR.

as has already been noted, when using a SWR there is a great probability of having a considerable "final balance" ... with the annuity it is quarenteed to be zero.