Search found 23 matches

by Gene S
Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 8259

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

There's a new error, at least as of today. "Close" and "Adj Close" are correct when displayed in a browser. But if you use the "Download Data" button, or have a program that uses the url "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v7/finance/download/...." the data returned by Yahoo swaps the two columns. Th...
by Gene S
Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6810

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

It's a bet you can get most of your money back before they default. If it takes more than about 13 years for them to default, you have "won" holding this bond. I.e. the coupons have paid back the initial price and you will get something in the restructuring post Recovery. It's also a very convex bo...
by Gene S
Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 26
Views: 5234

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

Verizon finally bought out Yahoo for $4.5 billion. Hard to believe that Yahoo once had a market cap of $209 billion. I don't know what Verizon will do with Yahoo Finance, but it probably won't be good for Yahoo Finance users. Yahoo makes its money from web ads, and Verizon wants to capitalize on thi...
by Gene S
Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 8259

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

I think Yahoo shut down the adjusted price today to fix some errors in the way they were displaying prices. When Yahoo started to show the adjusted price this morning, they did not quite get it right. The open, high, low, close, adj price, and volume were shown correctly for EFTs like iShare's SPY, ...
by Gene S
Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP
Replies: 10
Views: 1345

Re: Fixing Yahoo Finance Macro - HELP

Even if it's possible to come with work-arounds to get the historical data, it's practically useless unless Yahoo also resumes calculating the adjusted closing for dividends. Yahoo also provides dividend data. We'll have to use this dividend data to calculate our own adjusted close prices to calcul...
by Gene S
Tue May 23, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 3808

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

Doc's charts in the first post are nice, but I still like the yield spread curve. I am just not too sure about its ability to predict recessions after a long period of zero bound short-term rates. The yield curve was a poor predictor of recessions during the period from 1932 through the late 1950s. ...
by Gene S
Mon May 22, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 8259

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

Sadly, I think the days of using Excel, R, and other programs to automatically download free end of day stock data are over. Yahoo Finance is not the only company that has stopped automatic downloading of historical stock data. I think Google has stopped it as well. I suspect that it is Yahoo's data...
by Gene S
Wed May 17, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 63
Views: 8259

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

This is bad, especially for those who track bond funds. Without the adjusted price, the Yahoo Finance price data, chart, and historical data for the Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX) is totally useless, because the fund makes most of its money through dividends. Oh well...
by Gene S
Tue May 16, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 26
Views: 5234

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

dratkinson's post gave a yahoo finance hyperlink that returned a cvs file of the current stock price for a bunch of stocks. Is it possible to get the end of day stock price for a specific day?
by Gene S
Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moody BAA Corporate Rate
Replies: 2
Views: 1174

Re: Moody BAA Corporate Rate

Thanks for the information. The below chart shows a comparison of Moody's BAA corporate spread to similar corporate option-adjusted spreads.

Image
by Gene S
Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moody BAA Corporate Rate
Replies: 2
Views: 1174

Moody BAA Corporate Rate

Last month, the Federal Reserve site discontinued the Moody BAA corporate bond rate series. I use the Moody BAA to determine the spread between corporate bond rate and 10 year Treasury rate. Does anyone know a website where I can get the 10 year corporate bond rate, including its historical data?
by Gene S
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period
Replies: 5
Views: 1604

Re: Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period

The reason I used a 10 year compound annual growth rate was to smooth the graph of stocks, bonds, and inflation. It smooths out the ups and downs of the business cycle and takes out the effects of recessions. You can see the long term trend of inflation much better. The formula used for compound ann...
by Gene S
Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period
Replies: 5
Views: 1604

Re: Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period

I was wrong in my thinking in my initial post that stocks did great and bonds did OK during the low inflation period from 1960 to 1966. In the chart below, I plotted 10 year CAGR stock and bond returns versus 10 yr CAGR inflation. In the period leading up to the 1960s, inflation was falling from a h...
by Gene S
Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook
Replies: 1
Views: 484

2016 Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook

I read a old post that Morningstar had discontinued its 2016 Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook. Amazon has the SBBI yearbook for sale for $185. They are taking preorders, and the release date is August 22, 2016. The publisher is Wiley, not Morningstar. I wonder if this Amazon SBBI y...
by Gene S
Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross and his June 2016 investment outlook
Replies: 50
Views: 6403

Re: Bill Gross and his June 2016 investment outlook

Thanks for the many responses. Most of us have read many similar predictions and do take predictions with a grain of salt. However, I have done the following: I have reduced the duration of my bond holdings quite a bit. I have taken profits and redeployed in CD's, Cash and locked in a 6% Guaranteed...
by Gene S
Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period
Replies: 5
Views: 1604

Stock and Bond Performance in a Low Inflation Period

I was wondering how stocks and bonds would perform in a low inflation environment or the "new normal" environment. There was a period from 1960 to 1966 where the Federal Reserve was able to maintain a stable low inflation rate of about 1%. On the chart below, I used a 2 year annualized inf...
by Gene S
Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?
Replies: 55
Views: 8381

Re: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?

It seems like the volatility of long-term treasuries over intermediate-term treasures had greatly increased during QE2 and QE3. During these periods, the Fed pushed down long-term interest rates. This caused the returns on long-term treasury bond funds to decline much more than the intermediate-term...
by Gene S
Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic indicators for China
Replies: 3
Views: 474

Economic indicators for China

This is probably the wrong forum to ask this question, but what indicators would you use to identify an economic market bottom in China? China PMI, Vehicle Registrations, Oil/Gold ratio, Exports, LEI or other indicators? Since the current market correction in US stocks is mainly caused by the proble...
by Gene S
Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/Es
Replies: 7
Views: 1027

Re: Forward P/Es

Yes, I guess I do want forward EPS, such as consensus, but I would still use it to calculate the weekly forward PE ratio. The Yardini webpage that was referenced by JoMoney actually shows how to calculate the weekly forward EPS. It shows that for Sept 17th, the 2015 eps is 118.75 and the 2016 EPS is...
by Gene S
Tue Sep 29, 2015 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/Es
Replies: 7
Views: 1027

Re: Forward P/Es

I was looking for weekly forward PE ratios for the SP 500, so the JP Morgan Guide to the Markets is not much help. Still, I like all the information contained in the "guide to the markets", such as the global PMIs, and I will continue to read it. I don't use the PE ratio for valuation trad...
by Gene S
Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/Es
Replies: 7
Views: 1027

Forward P/Es

Does anyone know where I can get historical forward P/Es, either from a free website, or low cost data provider? The Wall Street Journal website posts the weekly forward P/E, but you cannot get historical forward P/Es.
by Gene S
Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 28
Views: 3669

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

This demonstrates a big problem with recession indicators - false signals or false recession calls. Shifting your money on a bad call can cost you a lot of money. If you really want to time the stock market, I would suggest you get a more robust recession indicator. The Federal Reserve has the Chauv...
by Gene S
Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data Providers for stocks, bonds and other asset classes
Replies: 1
Views: 321

Data Providers for stocks, bonds and other asset classes

Are there any data providers for asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, that don't cost thousands of dollars a year? I am currently using Ibbotson monthly asset returns from 1926 to 2005 that are supplemented with similar mutual funds "adjusted price" data from Yahoo Financ...