Search found 122 matches

by zengolf2011
Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 97
Views: 11844

Re: Arizona Chapter

Thanks, Mark. I plan to attend.
by zengolf2011
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?
Replies: 137
Views: 8009

Re: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?

My Roth is 10%, but wish it were more. I made lots of financial mistakes, and this was one. My situation was complicated a bit by continuing earning some unplanned income after retirement (and starting SS). But I also failed to make Roth contributions before retirement, and started conversions too l...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy Birthday, Taylor!
Replies: 76
Views: 3862

Re: Happy Birthday, Taylor!

Happy Birthday, Taylor, and heartfelt thanks for all you have given me personally by sharing your wisdom and research. You are my idol.
by zengolf2011
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Retirement W/D method and why?
Replies: 40
Views: 3826

Re: Your Retirement W/D method and why?

We are in our third year of RMDs, starting what I consider the middle third of retirement. We live simple, happy lives. Our W/D method is to use guaranteed incomes for routine expenses, RMDs as mad money (though we often donate and reinvest at least some), taxable funds for extraordinary expenses, t...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way
Replies: 62
Views: 7687

Re: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way

We are a wide-ranging, diverse set of individuals who share this blog and reasoned discussions on saving and investing. This blog facilitates rigorous analysis on a daily basis, and we usually require evidence-based discussion (unlike much of the blogosphere). We are not easy on ourselves. So, Bogle...
by zengolf2011
Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 158
Views: 16179

Re: ode to St. Jack

So good to hear from you, Larry. Thank you for posting this.
by zengolf2011
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 51517

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Thank you, Mr. Bogle, for enabling us to be better investors, and especially for showing us how to be better human beings. Thanks also to the generous people who have built this community to pursue Mr. Bogle's vision and mission.
by zengolf2011
Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1443

Re: The Intelligent Investor

Much has changed since Graham's time, but his work is a classic and still very much worth reading. Dismissing him is kind of like saying there's no point in reading Aristotle or Newton because Einstein's physics made theirs obsolete. Actually, their work made Einstein's possible. Same is true of the...
by zengolf2011
Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Imminent retirees & sequence fear
Replies: 69
Views: 4683

Re: Imminent retirees & sequence fear

Diver, have you considered building a 10-yr CD or Treasuries ladder sufficient to provide a desirable standard of living for that time frame, and putting a substantial amount of the remainder (whatever %age you will be able to stick with) into equities? If you're concerned about a collapse of CDs o...
by zengolf2011
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Imminent retirees & sequence fear
Replies: 69
Views: 4683

Re: Imminent retirees & sequence fear

Diver, have you considered building a 10-yr CD or Treasuries ladder sufficient to provide a desirable standard of living for that time frame, and putting a substantial amount of the remainder (whatever %age you will be able to stick with) into equities? If you're concerned about a collapse of CDs or...
by zengolf2011
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1583

Re: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?

I think it's common for asset prices to fall below any reasonable estimate of "intrinsic" value during financial crises. Panic selling takes on a life of its own completely decoupled from hard asset values , as does frenzied buying in the run-up to bubbles. In 1932, Benjamin Graham wrote an article ...
by zengolf2011
Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs IRA 3 fund Portfolio's percentages
Replies: 4
Views: 266

Re: Roth vs IRA 3 fund Portfolio's percentages

Can anyone "foresee" the future? How long is the "foreseeable future"? I think trying to foresee the future is market timing, which has not worked out too well for me. I don't know whether international stocks and bonds are terrible investments now or not. That's why I diversify in different investm...
by zengolf2011
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?
Replies: 12
Views: 950

Re: Do you use any economic "theory" in your approach to investing?

I think most investors subscribe to the theory that the economy will expand over the long run. I think many of us doubt the reliability of short-term forecasting. To me, these two beliefs are the theoretical basis for my buy-and-hold approach to investing.
by zengolf2011
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 40
Views: 4750

Re: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?

When I was in the accumulation phase, during stock market drops I bought as many shares in stock funds as I could afford. I didn't sweat bond fund dips. Now I'm in the distribution phase, and I can tell you the two phases are totally different. Now that I face Required Minimum Distributions, I maint...
by zengolf2011
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is it OK to not go through car insurance after you've been hit?
Replies: 17
Views: 1991

Re: When is it OK to not go through car insurance after you've been hit?

Sorry, but I would have to say it's usually a mistake to forgo the insurance process. Twice I have let someone who hit my car talk me into not reporting. Twice I regretted it. In the first case, my car sustained several thousand dollars of damage. The other driver begged me not to report the acciden...
by zengolf2011
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you define your success in our life, career and job?
Replies: 25
Views: 1942

Re: How do you define your success in our life, career and job?

lostdog wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:10 am
You are not your vocation. You are not your bank account. You are just you.

Health, family, friends, hobbies is all that matters.
Love your tag line: That's your life ticking away... [paraphrase, not a quote]
by zengolf2011
Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question for RMD'ers with predominantly bond IRAs
Replies: 11
Views: 997

Re: Question for RMD'ers with predominantly bond IRAs

How about a cd ladder? Maybe 1-2 years in mm, then a 2-3 year ladder. Like many of the other respondents, we keep laddered CDs and short-term bond funds representing three years of RMDs in TIRAs. Our TIRAs are primarily invested in intermediate-term bonds, but with small equity stakes. We plan to t...
by zengolf2011
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question for RMD'ers with predominantly bond IRAs
Replies: 11
Views: 997

Re: Question for RMD'ers with predominantly bond IRAs

Like many of the other respondents, we keep laddered CDs and short-term bond funds representing three years of RMDs in TIRAs. Our TIRAs are primarily invested in intermediate-term bonds, but with small equity stakes. We plan to take RMDs from CDs and/or short-term bonds only if both bond and stock m...
by zengolf2011
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money
Replies: 18
Views: 5480

Re: A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money

I started investing 30 years ago with the "help" of a financial adviser (read: salesman) who was no help to me at all, but helped himself a lot. With a small bit of reasoning and research, plus a large dose of luck, I eventually stumbled into variants of the 3-fund portfolio. My only regret is that ...
by zengolf2011
Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"
Replies: 52
Views: 5439

Re: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"

Taylor, heartfelt thanks for raising this topic and providing information. I'm 72, active and healthy, but do feel a slow decline in endurance and attention span. I recently started discussing this with my wife. As long as our situation is stable, we plan to maintain simplicity in our affairs, espec...
by zengolf2011
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How often do you change your HVAC filters?
Replies: 57
Views: 3357

Re: How often do you change your HVAC filters?

We live in the hot, dusty desert Southwest, so our air conditioner is in use much of the year. I would consider this a severe, high-demand service condition. Our A/C service guy said to change monthly, using the cheapest filters we can find. His rationale is that cheap filters create less resistance...
by zengolf2011
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for an 87-year-old?
Replies: 36
Views: 2263

Re: Advice for an 87-year-old?

Your intentions are good. You are trying to help your father. Be thankful that he is competent and content, and respect his choices. Let him know that you will always be there for him. Then you both can count your blessings.
by zengolf2011
Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using your home as old age care self-insurance?
Replies: 74
Views: 6115

Re: Using your home as old age care self-insurance?

We plan to move to a continuing care retirement facility whenever the first of us begins to experience infirmities. We view our home as just another asset to be sold when we no longer can enjoy it. We earmark our taxable account for this purpose to supplement proceeds from the house if needed. We ac...
by zengolf2011
Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shingrix [Vaccine availability]
Replies: 153
Views: 13396

Re: Shingrix [Vaccine availability]

I went to the local CVS in Scottsdale last week to get flu and pneumonia shots. Pharmacist said that Shingrix vaccine is not available and to check back early next year. Michael, I've had the same experience with the VA in Phoenix. I check every 6 months, and am told to try again in a few months. (...
by zengolf2011
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The futility of stock market forecasts
Replies: 8
Views: 1714

Re: The futility of stock market forecasts

Great public service, Taylor. Banyan Hill and Ted Bauman are the last folks on earth with whom I would entrust my assets! Purveyors of doom are seldom on target, and the rare instances they are is strictly due to chance and coincidence. Stay the course!
by zengolf2011
Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 6529

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

I consider dividend spending one way to implement a low, adaptive withdrawal rate. It's no better or worse than a similar plan based on total return.
by zengolf2011
Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 573

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

Great post, Taylor. I think the only value of forecasts is to present hypothetical possibilities, e.g. "If X occurs, Y may follow." I also think most financial planning isn't really planning at all. If I knew the life spans of myself and my spouse, future market returns, volatility, sequence of retu...
by zengolf2011
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with HOA Notice
Replies: 118
Views: 10261

Re: Dealing with HOA Notice

Did you do your due diligence in reading the CCRs before buying the house? It'll cost 700 bucks to be a good neighbor. Just do it!
by zengolf2011
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much Is Enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 25513

Re: How Much Is Enough?

I think you would be wise to grab the lower stress opportunity. Sounds like you're on a great financial track, so your retirement will be well-funded. I doubt you'll find many successful people looking back and wishing, "If I'd only spent more time at work!" But lots of them wish they had spent less.
by zengolf2011
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I dont know how to spend money
Replies: 39
Views: 5481

Re: I dont know how to spend money

I feel like I am not living life sometimes. Everything is a monetary value to me. First, I laud your introspection. You are wise beyond your years, wisdom reflected in your request for help from older BHs. That's not often heard from folks your age. Your aren't missing anything by passing on partyi...
by zengolf2011
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9908

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

"Safe" is a relative term, but I think an allocation bonds (especially of intermediate or short duration) and stocks has displayed less volatility than an all-stock portfolio for most periods. I consider bonds "safe" because of their imperfect correlation to equities when stocks drop sharply.
by zengolf2011
Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who uses the 3 fund portfolio ?
Replies: 113
Views: 23866

Re: Who uses the 3 fund portfolio ?

I have been a 3-funder for more than 20 yrs. Before that, I tried many different investments, but am convinced I would have done at least as well with 3 funds all along. I think a sometimes overlooked advantage is that it builds investor confidence to resist the latest fad. I used to jump from fund ...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an IPS really need to be 5 pages long to be valuable?
Replies: 64
Views: 4007

Re: Does an IPS really need to be 5 pages long to be valuable?

Cody wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:39 am
Or should the be that long to make it valuable
Nope. I think one well-constructed sentence would be better, e.g., "We invest in a low-cost 3-fund portfolio with 50% equities exposure, rebalancing annually."
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Minimizing my money worries in retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 2971

Re: Minimizing my money worries in retirement

We are in our 12th year of retirement. A few years before starting, we watched expenses closely -- not nearly at your level, just broad categories like food, utilities, etc. We did this for a few years into retirement. It didn't change anything, but we gained insight into our consumption needs and w...
by zengolf2011
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 47201

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

Is all seems hard to me. Progress is slow, investing is boring, and it’s not clear if or when true financial independence will materialize at last. For me, the first $100k was by far the hardest. I experienced the frustrations expressed by randomizer. After working at a grueling pace through my ear...
by zengolf2011
Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine
Replies: 74
Views: 6331

Re: "distilled" water for wife's CPAP machine

I was a Registered Polysomnographic Technologist (sleep tech), albeit many years ago. Your wife inhales water vapor from her CPAP humidifier deep into her lungs. Using anything other than distilled water would be taking a big chance. Also, it's important to keep her CPAP equipment (mask, hose, humid...
by zengolf2011
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 6688

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

We're in the distribution phase, no Plan B. But I think (hope?) we have prepared for bear markets with Plan A. We have annuitized income sufficient to meet foreseeable non-discretionary expenses. We plan to reduce discretionary expenses during downdrafts (Taylor's plan, I think), possibly down to ze...
by zengolf2011
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 3540

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

After jumping in and rebalancing from 100% domestic and international stocks to our 50/35/15 AA last week, stocks have been on a tear and bonds have been going DOWN! I know it's probably just the short-term jitters, but was this a smart move to make? I am an amateur, but I consider buying a stock b...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation
Replies: 16
Views: 1730

Re: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation

Your math is over my head, but wouldn't a perfect positive correlation between two variables mean that each would respond to changes in the same direction and degree? Wouldn't a perfect inverse correlation imply that their direction is opposite, but their degree of change is the same? Obviously, yo...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?
Replies: 67
Views: 5835

Re: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?

I'll offer a counterpoint and I'm somewhat being devil's advocate here: The summers are just not worth it in Phoenix. It is like a sauna or opening the oven all the time. The mild winters do not make up for it. Air quality is poor. The culture is not that great either. Crime is high. There is no gr...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?
Replies: 67
Views: 5835

Re: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?

Interesting to see the comment about cultures above mine... To me, there is little diversity here, but it depends on where you come from (Seattle = highly diverse) and where you are in the valley (not much diversity in NE valley)... If you want to do it, go for it. You are young enough where if it ...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation
Replies: 16
Views: 1730

Re: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation

If by 100% correlation you mean an exact correlation of 1.0, wouldn't their alpha and beta be identical? No. Your math is over my head, but wouldn't a perfect positive correlation between two variables mean that each would respond to changes in the same direction and degree? Wouldn't a perfect inve...
by zengolf2011
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?
Replies: 67
Views: 5835

Re: Leave Job (Philly) and move To Arizon (Phoenix)?

We moved from the Midwest 8 years ago to Tucson and now Phoenix. We love the desert, but it's not for everybody. Really, really hot summers (like nothing you've experienced), lots of dust, new allergies, different cultures. If you can tolerate the heat and like outdoor activities, you'll probably lo...
by zengolf2011
Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation
Replies: 16
Views: 1730

Re: Economics 101. Naive question about stock and bond market correlation

If by 100% correlation you mean an exact correlation of 1.0, wouldn't their alpha and beta be identical?
by zengolf2011
Thu May 31, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book Recommendation Wanted
Replies: 15
Views: 1475

Re: Book Recommendation Wanted

A hearty recommendation for John Bogle's Enough . You would not be meddling in his affairs. This book would be an act of love. I think it deals directly with what you are seeking -- our individual relationships with money. But it's also a book about finding joy. Posted this just before I saw Taylor'...
by zengolf2011
Sat May 26, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2103

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

On their risk potential index, I believe Vanguard ranks their Total Bond Market Index fund a 2 (conservative to moderate risk) and their REIT a 4 (moderate to aggressive).
by zengolf2011
Sat May 26, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2103

Re: Should REITs and BDCs be looked at more like bonds?

Most portfolios rely on bonds to provide safety and reduce volatility. REITs and BDCs provide neither. I think that they are sensitive to interest rates (as are bonds), but are higher-risk, possibly higher-reward investments. They perhaps share some characteristics of high-yield bonds, but may not b...
by zengolf2011
Tue May 22, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 97
Views: 11844

Re: Arizona Chapter

Great job, Mark, Michael, and fellow attendees. Enjoyed and learned from all, looking forward to our next gathering!

Tom
by zengolf2011
Tue May 15, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market instead of bond fund
Replies: 40
Views: 6900

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market instead of bond fund

dbr: Anyway, the point of interest is the risk and return of the whole portfolio, which can be adjusted by stock/bond allocation using lots of choices of bonds. The only person who should care if a bond is at a loss or not is someone who wants to keep money ready in the short term or at a specific p...
by zengolf2011
Mon May 14, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market instead of bond fund
Replies: 40
Views: 6900

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market instead of bond fund

Don't rising rates help holders of bond funds if shares are held past the duration period? I thought that's what Vanguard says.