Search found 693 matches

by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best intro to Python programming?
Replies: 22
Views: 5615

Re: Best intro to Python programming?

Bogleheads....Is Code Academy a good starting resource?

If you had to organize a learning sequence (e.g. a home-based curriculum), what would that be?
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity rewards Visa, affiliate data sharing.
Replies: 11
Views: 1930

Re: Fidelity rewards Visa, affiliate data sharing.

hickory....The correct answer to your question is to read the T&C of the credit card. It is all there in black & white.

I have the Fidelity Visa card. I am very happy with it. I have deposited north of 1K into my Roth, and now deposit monies into my taxable account.

Some advice....in today's digital world, you must assume all your data is being shared. Whether legitimately or not.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA & Patient Assistance Programs
Replies: 6
Views: 624

HSA & Patient Assistance Programs

Bogleheads....Maybe someone knows the answer to this question.

I know that you can't have an HSA when you have Medicare. I get that, although I really do not understand why someone on Medicare Part A and on an employer HC plan should not be able to participate in an HSA.

But does an HSA plan preclude participation in Pharmaceutical Patient Assistance Programs? Specifically, I am trying to ascertain if the patient assistance program for Humira can still be used if you have an HSA. Secondarily, it is not clear to me how the HSA works when you have expensive biologics.

Hopefully there is a Boglehead somewhere who has experience with this.
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and where to invest for a 92-year-old?
Replies: 20
Views: 2081

Re: How and where to invest for a 92-year-old?

Lovn...Here is an alternative suggestion, way outside the box: Implement Prime Harvesting with a 20/80 allocation (TSM/Tot US bond). When money is very, very tight, Prime Harvesting does a pretty good job conserving capital. PH is not a magical silver bullet.

The wild card is when your Dad moves to memory care. I would hold that off as long as possible. I don't see a scenario where your Dad enters memory care and the money lasting more than 5 years.
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using automatic rebalance feature in Fidelity 401K: Optimal Frequency
Replies: 11
Views: 2232

Using automatic rebalance feature in Fidelity 401K: Optimal Frequency

Bogleheads...quick question. My 401K administered through Fidelity has a nifty automatic rebalance feature. I am going to use it. Given the choice between weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual automatic rebalance: Which frequency would you opt for and why? I distinctly recall a thread here that stated there was a small, but persistent rebalance bonus at quarterly intervals, whenever the portfolio was 3% or more outside their rebalance bands. The author of that article claimed a 3% bonus, but was off by a magnitude of 10....the math worked out to 0.3% bonus, as I recall. My head is telling me is to do this quarterly. But you know what....I really like the wisdom of the Boglehead crowd. What say Ye? PS: As an aside, after much int...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?
Replies: 26
Views: 2307

Re: Which criteria should one consider when choosing between gold and commodities?

Personally, I look for easy fungibility. Meaning, I gotta be able to sell it when I want to sell it. Pretty much gold fits that bill, and has historically.

Full disclosure: 7% of my overall portfolio is in physical gold and silver. I typically buy a 1-oz bar of gold when I do buy. It is my SHTF insurance. :shock:
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does having children hurt net worth?
Replies: 47
Views: 2670

Re: Does having children hurt net worth?

investor3000.....There is a very straightforward quantitative answer to your question: Yes.

Like others, I don't measure the 'cost' for my children; I measure their impact.

My children are both works in-progress (as are we all).
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if Treasury yields become negative?
Replies: 6
Views: 1115

Re: What happens if Treasury yields become negative?

Bogleheads...I asked this same question three years ago (2016). That thread addressed what to do if bonds have a negative return. The list of things to do below is gleaned from that thread.


1. Pay off debt (a totally riskless return)
2. Keep physical cash
3. Look for a CD that pays out positive interest
4. TIPS
5. E-series bonds
6. I-series bonds
7. Buy gold
8. Prepay bills in advance (assuming vendors are creditworthy and are willing to accept your advance payments)
9. Pay additional estimated taxes and/or increase tax withholding on your income sources
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do if bonds have negative returns?
Replies: 70
Views: 12598

Re: What to do if bonds have negative returns?

Bogleheads...I am seeing more threads on bonds. This thread addressed what to do if bonds have a negative return. Enjoy.


1. Pay off debt (a totally riskless return)
2. Keep physical cash
3. Look for a CD that pays out positive interest
4. TIPS
5. E-series bonds
6. I-series bonds
7. Buy gold
8. Prepay bills in advance (assuming vendors are creditworthy and are willing to accept your advance payments)
9. Pay additional estimated taxes and/or increase tax withholding on your income sources

Was I prescient? Or just lucky? :-)
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?
Replies: 33
Views: 4432

Re: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?

Do you believe stocks will be cheap again as in 1982 / 2009; or will the experience of the 2010s put a "floor" under how low (U.S.) stocks go?
Post title seems a little 'click baity'. The answer is: Yes, after the next crash. When that crash happens is anyone's guess.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 26663

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

Has anyone ever changed their mind from one of these threads?
Answer: I have.

Specific to Mr. Swedroe, I thought his 'Perfect Storm' series of articles back in 2015/16 was instructive for me, behaviorally. Really helped me stay the course and not react to the market (at the time). Time has rewarded me for listening (and learning).

Generally to investing, this site has been absolutely foundational in areas of asset allocation, mixture of account types (tax advantaged, tax free, taxable), retirement planning, decumulation. I have very much put things into action, based on what I get here.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 37495

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Let's try to make this more actionable. That 1.7MM number might be what they think they need, but I think ignores objective reality. The objective reality is that the overwhelming majority of people will retire with far less than 1.7MM. It is this group I would like the Bogleheads to address - those whose retirement balances are not 1.7MM (or a multiple thereof), but much lower. What are things they can do to materially help themselves? Yes, most people already know the 'Boglehead Trinity': Save more, Cut expense, Work longer. We can dispense with these three. Heard that a million times (and said it often enough). I am much more interested in hearing from Retirees who retired with much less than 1.7MM, and read what they actually did, and t...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculation of SS difference between working to 62 but delay withdrawls until 70 vs working until 70
Replies: 12
Views: 1522

Re: Calculation of SS difference between working to 62 but delay withdrawls until 70 vs working until 70

I know enough about first and second bends to be dangerous, but it appears that it won't have a huge effect on the $3,497 (age 70) amount, but I'd like to get this nailed down as much as possible. For the record, I'm 53 and plan on retiring at 62 but not drawing SS until age 70.
The Finance Buff also published a spreadsheet where you could input your salary history, and then see how different scenarios affected you. It is accurate to within a few dollars a month, which is perfectly close enough for estimation purposes.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 26663

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

For me, it really came down to the 'All the Retirement Nest Eggs in One Basket' argument. So I have a 25% allocation in int'l, that is drifting to a 30% allocation over time. It seems foolhardy to think that the US will replicate the 20th century performance in the 21st century. History is not static and unmutable. It just seems prudent to hedge my bets....so I have int'l representation in my portfolio in the form of low cost Fidelity index funds. A corollary generally follows this thought process. Where will the majority of growth happen in the next century? Inside or outside the USA? To me, the answer is outside the US, and I absolutely need exposure to this growth. What scares the hell out of me are the appalling lack of legal protection...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for a 68 year old Retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 3522

Re: Asset allocation for a 68 year old Retiree

How are you supposed to know what is right for you? Tatala, this is the 64K question. All of us ask the same question, so you are not alone. Here are some things to think about. One, do you have a written plan (an Investment Policy Statement)? If you do not, get started immediately. The Wiki is very helpful. This is critical. Two, don't fall for the illusion of precision. In investing, there is no true precision; there is a lot of uncertainty. 'Good Enough' usually is. Three, nobody will know your personal circumstance better than you. No one. Be objective and unsparing in your analysis. I am 10-15 years out, and am starting to aggressively build up my nest egg. For me, the story of Joseph was instructive in determining how I felt in my he...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's view on the stock market
Replies: 27
Views: 5021

Re: Ric Edelman's view on the stock market

2) some people are willing to pay the higher fees for perceived value. They apparently think his firm offers enough service to justify the fees. To each their own, don’t attack Mercedes for making expensive cars attack the people who choose to blow their money on Mercedes. 3) Edelman will serve anyone with at least $5000 which is a big deal. His firm gives full financial advise including estate planning etc and most firms won’t touch someone will only a few thousand. This. The sad reality is that most people with less than 250K net worth are simply not served. They are more or less on their own. I am now leaving that boat (having passed 250K net worth), but I cannot begin to tell you how many financial planners said, "Nope, not intere...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great lecture series for those interested in Financial Theory and Portfolio Construction
Replies: 8
Views: 1738

Re: Great lecture series for those interested in Financial Theory and Portfolio Construction

Mr. Swedroe....Thanks so much for posting this. Nice to see you back here. On a personal note, I just want to thank you for your contributions here. You personally have increased my knowledge of investing, portfolio construction with your books and articles. So thank you for this, because my life is going to be materially better (financially) in large part because I am applying many of the concepts you write about. What you do makes a real difference.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2139907

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Gosh it (June 2019) was good month....Up 6.6% overall for the month. :happy
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Times when a financial planner can help
Replies: 18
Views: 2187

Re: Times when a financial planner can help

Here is another scenario where I think a financial planner can help: To purchase access (via their fees) to services one would not otherwise have (estate planning, trusts, help with behavioral issues, having a written IPS, etc.). Cognitive decline is a scary one. I guess one way to try and mitigate that is having a written plan. In my own personal circumstance, I will have my sons become familiar with what I am doing, why I am doing it, and what I was thinking when I wrote my IPS....so they fully understand the plan, and the issues I thought about in constructing it. Should I die before my DW, they will be able to help her manage the financial and investment aspects. We are fortunate in that we can trust our children not to screw us. Bogleh...
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?
Replies: 25
Views: 3848

Re: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?

This got me to wondering...if this turns out to be true, and the U.S. is heading for zero interest rates forever.... is it actionable?
Frank2012...In a word, "Yes"

How so? Well for starters, if you know that interest rates are permanently lower, this would affect withdrawal rates. Namely, your safe withdrawal rate goes down. The trinity study, and follow on studies generally assume bonds have a higher yield and return than what we have seen in the last decade. This affects portfolio viability. Just remember one thing: Our crystal balls are cloudy, at best [quote of Larry Swedroe, whom I greatly admire].

What to do? For me, it came down to this 'Trinity' (pun intended).

LBYM; Increase savings; Work longer.
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019
Replies: 126
Views: 13333

Re: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019

So you just shrug it off?
In a word: Yes.

It is one month. In looking at my portfolio, in the last 48 months, there have been 8 months with a loss (of varying degrees). And forty (yes 40) where my overall portfolio gained. Not stressing over it. To be fair though, I am in the accumulation stage. I think I would feel somewhat different if I was in the withdrawal stage, and had no human labor capital.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019
Replies: 126
Views: 13333

Re: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019

Down 2.9%.....BFD. I just take it in stride.
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue May 14, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does it make sense to have an FA?
Replies: 4
Views: 589

When does it make sense to have an FA?

Bogleheads....A question for the group. When does it make sense to have a financial/investment advisor manage your investments (or a portion thereof) for you? Please assume the FA/Investment advisor is a fiduciary, and would sign an agreement to that effect. Reasons I came up with: help mitigate cognitive decline, help with behavioral issues (i.e. like selling in a panic), desire to recapture time spent doing DIY investing, exposure to asset classes/funds that retail investor would not have access to, having a written plan that someone can update for you as life changes, a 'forced' annual review. Yes, I know that 'fees are forever'. But I am wondering when a Boglehead would opt for an investment advisor to manage a portion of their assets? ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue May 07, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity funds for taxable accounts
Replies: 23
Views: 3782

Re: Equity funds for taxable accounts

Bogleheads....Is a target date index fund good for a taxable account? I have FXIXF (Fidelity Freedom Index fund 2030). I was going for the ultimate in simplicity, but am wondering if I hurt myself taxwise.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat May 04, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 13953

Re: How ETFs use "Heartbeats" to wash-out gains

The actionable component of this thread is thus: If you plan on holding Mutual fund shares of an index fund in a taxable brokerage account, Vanguard's structure is by far the most tax efficient in the industry. If you are willing to hold ETF shares, look at the tax efficiency of the ETFs you have available and choose the one that has been most successful in avoiding CG distributions in the last decade, all other things being equal such as the same index. Vanguard and Blackrock iShares for example almost never distribute them.
Heck....when is that patent up? Would the expiration of the patent allow individual investors to get the same kind of deal?
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat May 04, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 13953

Re: How ETFs use "Heartbeats" to wash-out gains

From the May 1 article: Here’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund.
This is one part I don't understand. Attach? Huh?
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat May 04, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 13953

Re: How ETFs use "Heartbeats" to wash-out gains

Wait...Can a really smart Boglehead explain WTH a 'heartbeat' transaction is, so a second grader could understand it?

This just seems like a financial 'sleight of hand' where value somehow just disappears. Poof! The value is gone. Wouldn't the IRS get irritated?

If it is such a good thing, why doesn't every investment house do this? Or a variation of it? How can an individual investor do it? Now THAT would make this thread actionable. :happy
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri May 03, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 3332

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

Perhaps the concept of 'portfolio' is part of the issue here. What is your portfolio? I have two 401K plans I actively contribute to. It is a part of my portfolio. 100%, no debate. I have a Roth IRA I contribute to. It is a part of my portfolio. 100%, no debate. I have a taxable account I will shortly start contributing to. It is a part of my portfolio. 100%, no debate. But I also have home equity. Is this home equity a part of my portfolio? My home has appreciated very slowly. Is that performing poorly? I also have precious metals (gold, silver). Are precious metals a part of my portfolio? Precious metals ain't doing much these days. There are some collectibles that have value. Are collectibles/artwork a part of my portfolio? I understand ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri May 03, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 4464

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

RandomWalker....No, 10 years of data is not simply noise, to the individual investor. Example: First 10 years of retirement, Years 1-5 have a negative real return of 3% annually, then 0% real for years 6-10. My retirement is screwed because of sequence of return risk. That ain't just noise....it is deafening noise. The individual investor maybe invests 50-60 years. That 10-year slice matters a lot; it is 17% to 20% of their entire investing life. Mr. Swedroe is right on the mark (BTW, I was personally very happy to see his post here) that a) context matters, and b) they call it market risk for a reason - sometimes you wind up on the wrong side of risk and get burned. Mr. Spock also nailed an important point. There are a few very successful ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

OP here....I very much appreciate the discussion. It helps me clarify HOW to think about this issue. Now, if the current low real yields are more of a wake-up call for you to more carefully ponder about long-term risks, then I think you are onto something worth pondering about. siamond...Yes, you have hit it (out of the park). I did read that article of yours. In looking at the graph, it seems that there is a peak and trough of roughly 30 years that starts circa 150, hits a trough in the mid-60s and then peaks around 1980. I don't think that pattern holds today since the 'trough' of a 30-year cycle starting in 1980 would be around 1995, and 95-99 were spectacular years for stocks. Perhaps I am seeing something not really there, and artifact...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Theoretically, a long term low interest rate regime on the bond side would be (and has been) good for stocks. If you have lower expected return on the bond side, the market should gravitate toward stocks. Yes....and the double whammy is that not only are bonds returning less in real terms, the stock market is also forecast to have lower real returns going forward as well (if you use current valuation metrics like CAPE to project). One thought: The percentage of bonds may not matter (30% or 45%) all that much if you have enough there to handle multiple years of withdrawals. I believe one poster made this point. Then I guess it is a matter of how many years withdrawals do you want in bonds. Just read Simplegift's response....Wow! Thank you! ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

The point of buying bonds isn't for their return, it's for their price stability. That is partly true; Mr. Larimore states bonds help you sleep at night. They do. My issue is this. Bonds currently return roughly 0.5% to 1% real. Historically, they have returned double that. In a 30 year retirement, losing that real return has a real consequence. What I am seeing is that my simulations indicate a real danger of running out of money prematurely, because there is insufficient real return over the long haul and nearly half the portfolio (45%) is in an instrument that just does not provide enough return. The return assumptions of a number of studies upon which we rely had different return assumptions than the reality we have today. Notably, the...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Any chance of a link? I tried searching and couldn't find it.
Sadly, no. But I won't forget it anytime soon. :happy

To be fair, it did cause some controversy. A few Bogleheads objected to the post, so any traces of the now infamous 'Grape Brick' post on the bogleheads.org site have been removed. My take on some reactions was that a Shakesperian quote is apropos: Methinks thou dost protest too much. I felt it was a lighthearted post to make the point that ETFs enable 'day trading like' behavior, which is generally not a good thing to do, especially for neophyte investors.

For experienced investors who know WTH they are doing, ETFs are just fine. Full disclosure: I do not own Grape Bricks ETFs.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Admiral....helpful link. I have seen it before. Thx for re-posting.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

So, my advice is keep your retirement fixed income allocation in the moderate range as you near or are in retirement. Done't worry too much about fixed income yield -- more on the fixed income amount/percentage. Dandy....By all means, please tell me more. BTW, your very humorous post from some time ago starting with, "Poor cash...." was a classic. :happy In a forecasted world of lower future returns, this is causing me to re-examine my assumption of 45% bonds. Also, a number of different authors who have posted on these topics (Pfau, Kitces, Bengen, etc.) had different return assumptions that what we see today....which also prompts me to re-examine my assumptions. I don't typically make 'big' moves, aside from rebalancing on occa...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

In other words, how does the drag on total portfolio return due to lower bond yields affect SWR?
Thank you....and I am looking forward to the answers as well.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

It's not clear how to analyze this. The drop would be an additional 10% of your portfolio (35% instead of 25%), but your portfolio would likely be larger at the start of the bear market because gliding to 70% instead of 50% gave you higher returns.
This was helpful = comparison of relative drop in portfolio value.

I guess the question is whether the additional return I would get over time (~9 years) would be greater than that 10% difference in the decline of portfolio value, post-retirement. Agree that it is hard to analyze. For instance, would equities recover in 2-3 years? Who knows.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 2556

Re: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing

If you do not do anything, nothing will happen.
Everything starts there.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 13898

Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Bogleheads....My IPS has me on a glidepath to 45% bonds (currently 21%) over the next 9 years. But I am wondering about something. The historical yield on bonds is much higher than current returns, and yields do not seem likely to approach historical levels anytime soon. I cannot predict the future, any more than you. But I am looking at yields for the last decade, and wondering if we will return to 5%+ yields. My question: Is this a good enough reason, in your opinion (permanently lowered bond yields), to consider lowering your overall bond allocation to something like 25% or 30% from 50% or 45%? The trade-off, of course, is higher volatility in your portfolio at the worst possible time: When your human labor capital is spent. Just wonderi...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 3737

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

That said, some of the strategies that often perform better than Bengen's Floor-to-ceiling are McClung's EM, longinvest's VPW, and just using the IRS RMD tables. You'll notice that all three of the "stronger" strategies take advantage of "how much time you've got left". The basic idea is that withdrawing 10% of your portfolio when you are 65 is reckless but withdrawing 10% of your portfolio when you are 93 is not; so take advantage of that reality when designing a strategy. AlohaJoe....Great comment. I have learned much reading your 'take' on this topic. Are you familiar with Stanford's recent study on withdrawal strategies? I stumbled across this on 'The Retirement Manifesto' recently. In essence, my takeaway was the i...
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Follow-up on college engineering thread (computational v CS v Berkeley IEOR)
Replies: 77
Views: 5919

Re: Follow-up on college engineering thread (computational v CS v Berkeley IEOR)

physiorol....I do not know if you'd consider an East Coast school, but if so....take a look at Drexel University (Philadelphia). Their engineering programs are excellent, and they have paid co-ops for their students. Note: My son is a graduate of Drexel (Undergrad, and Grad).

The price is pretty stiff, but if your son is a good student, there are plenty of scholarships.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card
Replies: 874
Views: 164667

Re: Primer on Paying Taxes With a Credit Card

whodidntante...Great post! I use my Fidelity Visa card and get 2% of my balance dumped into my Roth. And yes, I try to time the payment with a bonus offer, so that dumps even a little more into the Roth.

I've noticed that not very many people in my social circle use CCs to pay their tax debt.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works
Replies: 27
Views: 2804

Re: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works

The problem with that hypothesis is that the data do not support it. Volatility in the markets has not increased as the proportion of stocks that are held in passive index funds has increased. Willthrill81....I've read your posts for some time now, and have learned a lot by reading them. Your post on how year 2K retirees have done was a classic. That was some thread. I appreciate your thought-provoking contributions to the Bogleheads. Let me respond to you this way: I think the jury is still out on my hypothesis. And I also think we need to agree on what measuring stick to use. What measuring stick are you using for market volatility? I thought one poster made a great point - technology will increase the speed of price discovery....and the...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works
Replies: 27
Views: 2804

Re: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works

Can anyone elaborate the logic behind this?
I will. My thinking was this: As we have fewer and fewer active investors who are engaged in price discovery, the market reaction to what they discover will be more volatile. In today's environment, we are inundated with 'price discovery'.

My supposition is that 'little things' that get discovered and priced into equities will be 'bigger, more consequential things' when they get discovered in the new world with fewer people engaged in price discovery. Price discovery will not be as robust.

Does this help?
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Submit questions for Allan Roth, my next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 22
Views: 2881

Re: Submit questions for Allan Roth, my next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Hi Mr. Ferri.....Thanks for conducting these podcasts. They are informative.

My question for Mr. Roth, regarding investment advice.

In our lives, we subject many things to what I call the 'reasonableness test'. Meaning, does it pass our own definition of reasonable. In evaluating investment advice, can you boil down what the specific elements are of your personal 'reasonableness test'?
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works
Replies: 27
Views: 2804

Re: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works

The active pie is shrinking. There will be fewer of them around as this plays out.
Wouldn't this shrinking of the 'active' portion of the pie lead to higher volatility?

With a smaller pool of people engaging in price discovery, would it not follow that the market reaction to 'price discoveries' will be more volatile than what we see currently?
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $4,026,858.95 Car or a Worry-Free Retirement?
Replies: 245
Views: 19049

Re: The $4,026,858.95 Car or a Worry-Free Retirement?

The easiest way to save money for retirement is to own an inexpensive automobile.
Mr. Larimore....Would this reasoning also extend to a house? I would think so. But want to hear what your thoughts are.

Example: Buy a smallish house in a really nice neighborhood can cost big bucks. You pay for the zip code.
Example: Buying a larger house in a 'Meh' neighborhood would cost much less.

[Note to Bogleheads: I am not suggesting that we all run out and buy homes in high crime areas, ok?!] :happy
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism
Replies: 28
Views: 4127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism

I'm saying they don't seem to really know. They sure ACT like they know. But they don't really know. None of us do. It is true, HomerJ. I think even Mr. Swedroe has said as much: Our Crystal Ball is cloudy, at best . Investing is an imperfect science, despite our best efforts to make it precise. There is inherent unpredictability, and chaos. With that proviso, it seems to me that if we have evidence of a tendency (CAPE10 is an approximate predictor of global returns), then why would we not consider this? And by extension, consider increasing Emerging Markets exposure. That was my point: Consider the evidence and think about increasing EM exposure. In my own case, I have two international index funds: FSPSX (401K), and FTIHX (Roth). I added...
by AtlasShrugged?
Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finance Books sequence
Replies: 14
Views: 1385

Re: Finance Books sequence

Living off your Money, Michael McClung - this would be a good addition after you read both Boglehead guides, and Swedroe's book. There is a LOT in there to digest.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism
Replies: 28
Views: 4127

Re: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism

One other takeaway from that article (Thanks Dave!).....Better think about increasing your emerging markets allocation. That 10-year return forecast does not look especially promising for the US and Developed countries.