Search found 555 matches

by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10006

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

My entry: Boglehead Basics
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6203

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

The overriding point is that there have been several times when the US stock market has had negative real returns over extended periods. Bobcat2....Let me start by saying you have greatly aided my learning over time. Your posts on Funding ratio have greatly influenced how I look at my retirement re...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 102
Views: 7651

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Then there's the additional complication that the US government defaulted on those Liberty Bonds in 1934 and bond holders were never made whole. I think it was something like a 40% haircut that bond holders took. AlohaJoe....I have come to appreciate your posts more and more over time. When I read ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 4474

Re: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement

texasdiver....I could not help but think that the 'little kid' equivalent to the some of the Gen Z's belief is the 'Tooth Fairy'. :happy

I have two children in their 20's....They ain't relying on an inheritance.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5496

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Simplegift.....Really like the history charts. A lot. :beer Here is what struck me. What are the commonalities between the Great Depression and the 1970's Stagflation Era? And can we identify them? It seems that going heavy on bonds wound up doing much better. One poster mentioned something about hu...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired Bogleheads w/RA: How much does climate matter?
Replies: 4
Views: 732

Re: Retired Bogleheads w/RA: How much does climate matter?

Have you Googled your question? You may get more information. Try the words "rheumatoid arthritis hot dry weather" Yep, did that. I have heard anecdotal evidence that 'hot and dry' helps. My visits to CA and NV got me thinking about it. She lives in the Southeast where, of course, it is warm but no...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired Bogleheads w/RA: How much does climate matter?
Replies: 4
Views: 732

Retired Bogleheads w/RA: How much does climate matter?

Bogleheads....I have a question for what I know to be a very small group of Bogleheads: Bogleheads with Rheumatoid Arthritis. For this group, my question is: Does/Did climate really matter all that much in your choice of retirement destination? Right now, I live in a rather nice town in South Jersey...
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2065

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

Your thoughts? Well SimpleGift, since you asked: My thoughts are that you did not disappoint . :sharebeer I also think the impact of tariffs to returns in the example you showed below seems muted. In a time of rising tariffs (starting circa 1930) and high tariffs, globalization still managed a 50% ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1802

Re: Keeping up with inflation

Top99% nailed this one. What do you mean by inflation? In recent years, I have relied less and less on CPI, and more and more on my 'personal rate of inflation' which I can tell you is a hell of a lot higher than CPI. For instance, my healthcare premiums are way up more than CPI since 2010. So is my...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing exit from megacorp
Replies: 54
Views: 5817

Re: Timing exit from megacorp

Hoeboe....There was a time, not so long ago, where an employee and an employer could work things out to their mutual benefit. You'd tell your COO you intend to retire, the company would plan, there would be a nice party with a gold watch, and the company would send you off with a nice little severan...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2177

Re: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]

Bogleheads....aside from Nisiprius' illustration (Iliked it a lot), which did not really address "trade policy" as I have understood this term. I have not really seen a good answer here. The question, as I understand it, is what happens in an investing sense when countries start levying tarriffs and...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?
Replies: 161
Views: 14675

Re: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?

Bogleheads....maybe it is me, but when I hit 1MM, I am going to really have a celebration. Are you kidding me? I will treat my DW and I to the very best dinner I can find in Philly. With a little luck, staying employed, and a 7% compounded return....that party will happen in about 12 years when I tu...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: When you cut spending, what do you cut?
Replies: 84
Views: 8439

Re: Retirees: When you cut spending, what do you cut?

Bogleheads....Fascinating replies. The overwhelming majority (in fact, I think every one) would look at 'large, but temporary' cuts instead of 'small, but permanent' cuts. I would be interested in hearing any Boglehead who actually went the 'small, but permanent' cut route. I am also interested in h...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 169
Views: 14701

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

My question is: how much cash should I have to evacuate and reside in a safe area for 2 months or longer? Is $10,000 green cash hidden on the premises reasonable ? Interested in your thoughts. burt....I am going to give you a contrarian view. We (DW and I) keep just north of 25K in "greenage" (mean...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: When you cut spending, what do you cut?
Replies: 84
Views: 8439

Retirees: When you cut spending, what do you cut?

Bogleheads.....I am a fan of a number of different academics (Swedroe, Bernstein, Pfau, Kitces, etc). I recently ran across a post from kitces.com that discussed the effect of 'large, but temporary' spending cuts versus 'small, but permanent' spending cuts on safe withdrawal rates and portfolio surv...
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3299

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

mptfan....You ask an interesting question. The answer, in part, depends on your personal rate of inflation , IMO. If you sent a child to college in the last decade (I sent two), you have not seen low inflation. If you have a chronic health condition, you have not seen low inflation. If you are tryin...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?
Replies: 49
Views: 4998

Re: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?

Bogleheads....reviving this thread. I reread the article from Larry, and then I took a look at Estrada's paper. And I thought about RAS and D-RAS. Pretty nifty metric, particularly D-RAS. I really would like to see a more in-depth examination of D-RAS. In the paper (pretty dense on math), Estrada an...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?
Replies: 8
Views: 1002

Re: Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?

The data will be available in September, and the IRS will announce the limits for 2019 in October. Yes....If I am doing the math right, the current calculation using CPI laid out in Internal Revenue Code section 219(b)(5)(C) yields a calculation of 5,900+, which I believe means the limit will go fr...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?
Replies: 8
Views: 1002

Will rising inflation increase 401K and Roth contribution limits for 2019?

Bogleheads....I am wondering the likelihood of Roth IRA contribution limits increasing to 7K (6K + 1K catchup), and 401K limits going to 25K (19K + 6K catchup) in light of rising inflation. My guess is that it will, but I think this depends on the CPI in August, right? My other question is whether t...
by AtlasShrugged?
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 5340

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

This suggest that, data quality issues aside, investing in the broad universe of available global equities has provided fairly consistent risk-adjusted returns for over four centuries. SimpleGift....I have greatly enjoyed your history posts; I am an amateur student (dilettante?) of history myself. ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off a mortgage: Incentivized by new tax law?
Replies: 17
Views: 1631

Re: Paying off a mortgage: Incentivized by new tax law?

You do realize that NJ is one of a few high-tax states (along with NY and CT) that have said they are allowing tax payers to deduct their state taxes as a charitable contribution, and thus continue to itemize and get the full (uncapped) deduction? Admiral...Yeah, I read that. We'll see. I am not ho...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off a mortgage: Incentivized by new tax law?
Replies: 17
Views: 1631

Paying off a mortgage: Incentivized by new tax law?

Bogleheads....I need some advice on whether to direct money toward paying down a mortgage, or establishing a taxable account. Some background. I currently max out my 401K and Roth IRA (finally!). Wife has a Roth she contributes to. So we are pretty much maxing out our tax advantaged space. For healt...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?
Replies: 179
Views: 37555

Re: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?

What did you learn, what do you wish you had done differently, or what do you wish you had known at 40? Did you have any "crisis" experiences? Let's hear it! Brian2013....I congratulate you (a little early) on reaching this milestone (age 40). You are about to enter your second 'Golden Age' (circa ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6846

Re: General Electric

I know several former GE employees who would tell you that GE is on its second consecutive bad chairman. FedGuy (and others)....This one is pretty simple for me. Her money, her portfolio, her decision . When she made the buy, I merely asked her reasoning and her rationale. I have also learned over ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun Jun 03, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reading Suggestions for Retirement Planning
Replies: 9
Views: 1111

Re: Reading Suggestions for Retirement Planning

+1 on McClung's 'Living off your Money
+1 on Quinn's 'How to Make your Money Last'

Very much looking forward to reading Larry Swedroe's upcoming book.
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6846

Re: General Electric

sawyer_sully....Time for a contrarian view. My wife recently purchased a chunk of shares when GE tanked after Immelt left. It was her money. But I was curious about her reasoning. You see, my wife is an immigrant (now a citizen), and brings a very different perspective to things that I have come to ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 12054

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Bogleheads...One strong factor to consider on the question of simplification: Who you leave behind when you die. Over the last year, I have been whittling down funds. I now have a three fund portfolio in my Roth, and a four fund portfolio in my primary 401K. All are low cost index funds through Fide...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestones on the way to FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 28
Views: 3145

Re: Milestones on the way to FI

Ari....You might want to consider using your 'Funding Ratio' as your yardstick. I have found that metric very helpful, and humbling. Bobcat2 has written about this a lot, and it has significantly influenced my thinking. And saving habits.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 28, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?
Replies: 54
Views: 4560

Re: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?

I thought 'aj76er' had this right. The couple's situation seems tailor made for VPW. Is there SS or not. I don't think there was an answer to that question.
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 21, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 437
Views: 85881

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Why 5% real and 1.8% real? Because nobody was able to provide me with better WAGs than using long-term historical world-wide stocks and bonds returns since 1900. longinvest....Yep, I read your post. The snippet above made me smile. On another note, a response you made to me some time ago makes more...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 21, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 4094

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

Ok, time for someone to say something nice about Ric Edelman. I am not an Edelman client - I did not want to pay the 1.5% AUM fee. :shock: There is one service though that Edelman does provide that I feel gets lost in the Ric-Ripping: He does provide a free consultation , and in my case, it resulted...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 21, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 437
Views: 85881

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

In short: a "tilt" is just saying "if the market is undervalued, that means future expected returns are higher, which means I can take some risk by increasing my starting withdrawal rate". Since the market is currently not undervalued by the metrics McClung chose, there's not much room to increase ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 20, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Door Dash: Has anyone used?
Replies: 14
Views: 1911

Door Dash: Has anyone used?

My eldest son (launched from nest 1.5 years ago) was talking to me on the phone recently. He mentioned an app called 'Door Dash'. Basically, from what I gather, it is a glorified food delivery service. In his case, he had Cheesecake Factory food delivered to his apartment. He was doing some heavy du...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 20, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".
Replies: 7
Views: 3315

Re: Wow! Just discovered "Portfolio Visualizer".

My advice: Keeping playing with PV. Lots of good stuff there. I use the Monte Carlo functionality. You might want to complement your PV play with Portfolio Charts (portfoliocharts.com). I really like it for the complex visualizations. I seem to recall some guy, Tyler 9000, has something to do with i...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 20, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip Newark NJ to Albany
Replies: 76
Views: 3798

Re: Road trip Newark NJ to Albany

Yo.....dodecahedron nailed this one. Take the train(s). EWR airport has a train that hooks up to NJ Transit. NJ Transit to NY Penn Station. Then hop an Amtrak train to Albany and rent your car there. Albany is 'Meh' (to me). I loved Cooperstown (love baseball), Lake George and Fort Ticonderoga (a bi...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 20, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 3976

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

Mostly, these tools have terrified me. They show how woefully behind I am. :shock:
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 20, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 437
Views: 85881

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am trying to wrap my head around 'tilt'. It is the author's method to adjust the initial withdrawal rate. And there are a bunch of tilts here (0% to 60%). In the book, the author states it might be appropriate to have a 50% or 60% tilt if you are invested in just US equities (pg 228). But right af...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sun May 13, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 17641

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I can certainly understand the decision to keep much of your wealth in cash, but physical bills in a home safe seems unbelievably risky to me. bayview....We'll take our chances. It has worked out just fine, so far. No fires. No floods. Nobody shot. I'm not particularly concerned. :happy Over time, ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 09, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 17641

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Why do you do this? munemaker....You ask a fair question; I shall answer. There was a time, circa 99-02, where my employment life was very turbulent. The economy had gone through the dot.com boom, and bust. My fortunes rose - and fell - with the economy. We had an emergency fund. Let me share with ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Tue May 08, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 17641

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

You keep 10% of your portfolio in currency in a safe in your house? OMG!
Yep, and I also keep a few loaded handguns handy.... :happy
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 07, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6694

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

We're playing the odds when we invest, not solving a math problem. willthrill81...I have come to the conclusion that the people behind the 'market' should be seen as Kindergartners. Meaning, when the 'market' reacts to news, it is helpful (at least to me) to assume the people (i.e. institutional an...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon May 07, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 17641

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Physical cash, as in I go downstairs to my safe in the basement, open it up and grab a handful of physical bills: ~10% of portfolio. This is trending downward over time. Part of the cash is for our emergency fund.
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 02, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 15456

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Someone could make the argument that domestic equity has returned far more than international over recent history. Why diversify internationally when the numbers do not lie? Home bias can always be justified, of course. That doesn't make it "wrong" to be biased, but it should be admitted and embrac...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 02, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 15456

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

To me, it is all about the numbers. The yields suck on int'l bonds. The history of returns on int'l bonds (developed) suck. That huge sucking sound you hear, it is all the yield you are giving up by buying int'l bonds. No thanks. I'll stick with the US Total Bond market. Am I biased? Perhaps. But th...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 02, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the questions you would ask a Financial Advisor ?
Replies: 59
Views: 4157

Re: What are the questions you would ask a Financial Advisor ?

Questions to ask FA: 1. What is your favorite investment book and why ? 2. You are a fiduciary per your adv-2 but Are you really a fiduciary at Heart ? 3. What is your Investment Philosophy and how you evolve it every 5 yrs ? 4. Do you have a financial advisor for yourself ? If not, why not? If yes...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 02, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card
Replies: 33
Views: 4170

Re: Everything You Need to Know on an Index Card

Simplicity is the master key to success. (Larimore) Stay the course. If I said it a thousand times, I meant it every time. Stay the course. (Bogle) Basic math works ; invest in the lowest cost passive funds (total stock, total bond, total international) (White Coat Investor) The worst enemy to your ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed May 02, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm
Replies: 17
Views: 3091

Re: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm

If I ever get frustrated balancing my checkbook, I'll know that I am in trouble. If I have difficulty understanding a majority of the posts here, I'll know I'm in trouble. (Of course, I'm not claiming that I understand factor-based investing or some of the statistical analysis that appears here at ...
by AtlasShrugged?
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm
Replies: 17
Views: 3091

Re: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm

I've dealt with the mental decline of my parents, mother-in-law, and an aunt. Dead Man Walking....sounds pretty tough. It also sounds like you have been a good son, and a good husband. Can you share some specifics on, As a septuagenarian, I have begun to foster relationships with my son and nephews...
by AtlasShrugged?
Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm
Replies: 17
Views: 3091

Mental elasticity as you age & free choice paradigm

Bogleheads: I occasionally hit the Nerds Eye View website to see if there are any articles of interest. This week, Michael Kitces linked to a fascinating blog post (link): https://ofdollarsanddata.com/be-careful-what-you-choose-dd3cf7b45dd9 In brief, the article details an experiment where a prefere...
by AtlasShrugged?
Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 70
Views: 6502

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

SimpleGift....The takeaway I get from your post. Invest we must.....in international index funds! :happy Those numbers for China and India are astounding. That is a tremendous amount of growth in just 32 years. It may actually be understated. Why? The one thing I am not sure we take into account ver...