Search found 3294 matches

by patrick013
Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Software
Replies: 66
Views: 9098

Re: Investment Software

chris319 wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:23 pm I hold a couple of stock positions (horrors!) and am looking for a simple program to track them.
If you have an Android phone or tablet My Stocks Portfolio
could be handy. Claims it does DRIPs, splits, and calcs
the IRR annually.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 26, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity vs Schwab
Replies: 80
Views: 10074

Re: Fidelity vs Schwab

Put some assets in both perhaps.

Twice as much SIPC insurance and potentially twice as much
FDIC insurance.
by patrick013
Fri Dec 24, 2021 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm losing faith in "it's already priced in"
Replies: 77
Views: 11146

Re: I'm losing faith in "it's already priced in"

The rates for a yield today is perfect information for
example. The rates in the future are imperfect information
whether proposed by economists or the govt..

So many times the market neglects the imperfect information
and holds to the perfect information before actual prices
change when the new info becomes reality and is priced in.
by patrick013
Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality Factor - General Questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1511

Re: Quality Factor - General Questions

If you sort the 500 for above average growth. Sort the 500 for below average LT debt to total assets. See which stocks appear in both sorts. Then select the stocks from there that pay a dividend of any amount. A small dividend is probably better than a large one. Put 50 to 100 stocks that fit in an index. Compare the new quality index with the 500 for 10 or 20 years. That's how I would define it. A critical concept in constructing factors being Parsimonious . You want to use as few variables as possible that gives the greatest statistical significance. Growth in earnings is growth. If you had 2 companies with equal sales the one with the least LT debt should be chosen. There are actually 50 or more companies that would survive both sorts. ...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It is already priced in [planned Fed rate increase]
Replies: 14
Views: 2076

Re: It is already priced in [planned Fed rate increase]

Based on average spreads the 10 year TRSY could be at 1.75%,
the 5 year at 1.5%, and the 2-3 year around 1.00% next year.

These could get priced in if the market believes the current
dot plot. Or it could be a Doubting Thomas.
by patrick013
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality Factor - General Questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1511

Re: Quality Factor - General Questions

If you sort the 500 for above average growth. Sort the 500 for
below average LT debt to total assets. See which stocks appear
in both sorts. Then select the stocks from there that pay a
dividend of any amount. A small dividend is probably better than
a large one. Put 50 to 100 stocks that fit in an index.

Compare the new quality index with the 500 for 10 or 20 years.
That's how I would define it.
by patrick013
Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality Factor - General Questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1511

Re: Quality Factor - General Questions

Camboodoogins wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:32 pm
My questions include:
1. How do quality factor ETFs like QUAL provide exposure to this factor?
2. Are there any strong benefits to holding a quality ETF in a portfolio?
3. For people already tilting to other factors, for example small and value, how might adding quality affect performance?
4. What are the best quality factor ETFs available right now?

Thanks so much. I really appreciate any guidance or information I can get on this.

Tickers SPHQ or QDIV. These usually have minimal debt and earnings growth.
More companies today have super high PE's or no earnings.
by patrick013
Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could a dividend portfolio make sense?
Replies: 98
Views: 8441

Re: Could a dividend portfolio make sense?

I just spent some time searching for some dividend-focused ETFs and I found these two: MLPX is an ETF with 6% yield 0.45% expense ratio with about 24% allocated to MLPs. IDV is a dividend-focused ETF with 5.56% yield and 0.49% expense ratio, so the underlying portfolio probably yields 6%+ on average. I like investigating companies. I believe I can construct a reasonably diversified 8% yielding portfolio from those underlying companies and pocket the 0.49% expense ratio. High yields usually come from mortgage REIT's and MLP's. I don't think the 500 universe includes those in it's index. Here's some from the 500 which look good in a Roth and aren't doing their best during COVID. They usually run neck to neck with the 500. https://bn1305files...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 12, 2021 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Diversification
Replies: 15
Views: 1537

Re: Dividend Diversification

........ or is it as simple as identifying other companies whose stock provides a regular dividend of similar value and spread the risk? Dividends are correlated quite well to the price of the 500 index. Coincidentally as good as anything else. From that index several funds stick out for tilting purposes hopefully increasing total return and lowering beta at the same time. Tickers PEY, SPHD, SPYD, and QDIV. While QDIV is not particularly high yield it employs a good quality/yield concentration. While a tilt or two isn't necessary a tilt to public utilities fund can add return or lower beta for the portfolio as well. Individual stocks can be bad unless you're 100% sure and during COVID I don't think dividend funds will have their best retur...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: intermediate-, long-, or extended term treasuries?
Replies: 18
Views: 2186

Re: intermediate-, long-, or extended term treasuries?

MattB wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 6:46 am
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 6:07 pm Intermediate-Term is the sweet spot.
That seems to be the consensus. Can you explain why this is the case?
A TRSY fund spanning 3 to 10 years will capture most of the
return of longer term and the lower volatility of a short term fund.
Plus it works great when stocks do crash.

With the rumors of rate increases next year a short term approach is
ST TRSY fund
ST MUNI fund
ST CORP fund

With inflation causing a stir TIPs could benefit but that depends on
how much the adjustment there will actually be. It appears they
need a bigger adjustment.
by patrick013
Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with Asset Allocation and Fixed Income
Replies: 4
Views: 526

Re: Assistance with Asset Allocation and Fixed Income

NYCaviator wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:53 pm
patrick013 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:51 pm
NYCaviator wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:44 pm I know we are in a weird environment for bonds right now, but is a total bond market still the way to go, and should I be holding that in our 401ks?
In a high tax bracket a muni bond fund in taxable could be used if out of
tax-deferred space.
We still have space in the 401k, but does it make sense to fill up the 401k with bonds or should I leave some equities in there?
The wiki as some info about that. Bonds look good in a traditional 401k.

Tax-efficient Fund Placement
by patrick013
Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with Asset Allocation and Fixed Income
Replies: 4
Views: 526

Re: Assistance with Asset Allocation and Fixed Income

NYCaviator wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:44 pm I know we are in a weird environment for bonds right now, but is a total bond market still the way to go, and should I be holding that in our 401ks?
In a high tax bracket a muni bond fund in taxable could be used if out of
tax-deferred space.
by patrick013
Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Munis “safe enough” as a core fixed income holding?
Replies: 29
Views: 3420

Re: Are Munis “safe enough” as a core fixed income holding?

GP813 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:57 am Some reading you might find interesting.

US municipal bond defaults and recoveries, 1970-2019
Good charts showing AAA are still avoiding defaults.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future US Stock Market Returns
Replies: 34
Views: 4424

Re: Future US Stock Market Returns

With inflation the way it could be even flat real product output

data would lead to stock market returns.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?
Replies: 187
Views: 16667

Re: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:23 pm I have nothing against 3% SWR, I think that's actually very reasonable.

The next time I figure out my annual withdrawal I'm

going to increase it by 1% per year and then run the

Monte Carlo. Or not.



.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?
Replies: 187
Views: 16667

Re: How are People Mitigating Sequence of Return Risks?

1) Limit Withdrawal Rate (i.e. drop down to 2.5%) 2) Home Equity (i.e. borrow against capital if market turns down) 3) Income Laddering (i.e. bond laddering) 4) Cash Reserve Bucketing Strategy (i.e. set aside two years of expenses a priori and if market drops use it) Thoughts on which of these is better? Is there alternative options? Use age-in-bonds to your advantage whatever you think would lead to adequacy there. I don't think the next recession will last ten years or even five years but rather one or two years while interest rates, lower taxes, and the usual bailouts keep the supply chain moving. Other than that a 3 to 5 year TRSY or CD ladder would solve that era financially with no losses. My Corp Coupon bond fund usually just sets f...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: where to get daily S&P 500 data going back to 1871
Replies: 7
Views: 1048

Re: where to get daily S&P 500 data going back to 1871

First, does daily data exist somewhere? There probably was a formal stock market someplace but who knows where ? The current market has evolved from the 500 starting there around 1950. https://bn1305files.storage.live.com/y4mfslpIJ1o75fkPnNRaV8JKd0MlSkWI6dKvGOi2pBHfdr1HpWD4Gt3n6wQFdew5MFx82lboJmgmFvZWj-2imBefLG0GC87zpmfLOv5lUo27JmArsXYWHN6sgXFV6r_LrHqQHcEbj4CEPOmfySp50cYzd_2LwED5F6F9bigV8JwQPwTJqWzw_L68WkDPbEnOcn1?width=878&height=568&cropmode=none https://bn1305files.storage.live.com/y4m294JLs1NmDXtEJpCzawrCZWE1sI3dgq5G9XxBPf71KTygiEvDCjCJCYr0g_wykuAiEtYCXlG_8c6KIHsFyxN48BPbjXipRj79KbBnYjBd6SgwBZ9Pjh9qVQWqfPv83ZKYkNokcxSyj9VmxglAp5yeTt78La_DHBTvhcSC30pHzYO0c3aybyM0M7EFllPRfrU?width=866&height=558&cropmode=none
by patrick013
Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pre-Tax 401k vs. Roth 401k
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Re: Pre-Tax 401k vs. Roth 401k

It's nice to receive the traditional account tax reduction and then
pay a lower tax rate on withdrawals after retirement. Higher tax
now and lower tax after retirement.

The Roth looks good when paying lower taxes now and expect higher
taxes after retirement from investment gains, inheritances, etc..

Max'ing these and any employer related matching always makes sense.


See this also when allocating between the bond and stock fund.
Tax-efficient Fund Placement

This could be interesting if Roth is desired.
Determining if your plan supports the mega-backdoor Roth
401(k) to Roth IRA Conversion: Rules & Regulations
by patrick013
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor or No
Replies: 74
Views: 6563

Re: Financial Advisor or No

I thought a Totten trust was nothing more than another name for a PoD account? That definitely won't take the place of a will, because so many accounts (including, annoyingly, some of mine) don't allow PoD. I would always want a will to clean up whatever can't be titled or ToD/PoD'd or, even with a revocable trust or some other trust, just didn't get titled correctly. Anything in a workable Totten trust will be done very fast leaving the will if any for misc household items. :) But as I said some accounts, for example one Citi account I have $50k in, do not permit registering as PoD, so that limits your choice of where you're going to hold your assets. Similarly the last I knew not all states allow titling property or vehicles as ToD so yo...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor or No
Replies: 74
Views: 6563

Re: Financial Advisor or No

We don't have a will, but know we should. Consider a totten trust. No will, no lawyer, no probate, no fees. It's all handled by your bank and brokerage company. Funding senior years with a trust for that purpose is another need. I thought a Totten trust was nothing more than another name for a PoD account? That definitely won't take the place of a will, because so many accounts (including, annoyingly, some of mine) don't allow PoD. I would always want a will to clean up whatever can't be titled or ToD/PoD'd or, even with a revocable trust or some other trust, just didn't get titled correctly. Anything in a workable Totten trust will be done very fast leaving the will if any for misc household items. :) But as I said some accounts, for exam...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 18, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor or No
Replies: 74
Views: 6563

Re: Financial Advisor or No

tibbitts wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:16 pm
patrick013 wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:46 pm
elle wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:23 pm We don't have a will, but know we should.
Consider a totten trust. No will, no lawyer, no probate, no fees.
It's all handled by your bank and brokerage company.

Funding senior years with a trust for that purpose is another need.
I thought a Totten trust was nothing more than another name for a PoD account? That definitely won't take the place of a will, because so many accounts (including, annoyingly, some of mine) don't allow PoD. I would always want a will to clean up whatever can't be titled or ToD/PoD'd or, even with a revocable trust or some other trust, just didn't get titled correctly.
Anything in a workable Totten trust will be done very fast leaving
the will if any for misc household items. :)
by patrick013
Wed Nov 17, 2021 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor or No
Replies: 74
Views: 6563

Re: Financial Advisor or No

elle wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:23 pm We don't have a will, but know we should.
Consider a totten trust. No will, no lawyer, no probate, no fees.
It's all handled by your bank and brokerage company.

Funding senior years with a trust for that purpose is another need.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Benefits for high-net-worth customer from brokerage firms
Replies: 41
Views: 6287

Re: Benefits for high-net-worth customer from brokerage firms

Institutional investors usually get direct communications for certain
new issues. Everybody else has to get a bond fund.
by patrick013
Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive index investing - why?
Replies: 112
Views: 55899

Re: Passive index investing - why?

The market portfolio, usually the 500 or TSM, has beaten
80 to 90 percent of the other funds every year. Other
funds fall from the top percentile in a few years while
the market portfolio stays in the marathon.

The index replacement methodology when companies lose
market share or growth potential is very good. Without
that methodology emotions, imperfect information, or just
plain guesswork lead the non-index fund manager into
portfolios with historically lesser return.

Active funds can have very good returns but most of those
follow an index or are closet index funds with higher fees.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations: 1999 vs now
Replies: 152
Views: 14620

Re: Valuations: 1999 vs now

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:46 am
S&P 500 PE = 29.59 (Current)

....................................

For this reason I think we're nowhere close to a bubble which a lot of people are talking about simply by looking at absolute numbers. Am I missing anything here? Thoughts?
PE's have gotten better due to EPS increasing. So the bubble is better than expected.

TRSY yields could climb a bit more, dividends and buybacks are starting to increase.

All good signs not bad signs.
by patrick013
Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Complex portfolio w/ high fees and unrealized gains
Replies: 73
Views: 5760

Re: Complex portfolio w/ high fees and unrealized gains

All the books say buy and hold. Perhaps sell the funds with the highest
fees and highest tax basis while staying in the lower tax bracket. It can
take several or more years to do so.

Everybody wants to be in a few funds. It may take a few years to sell and
adjust into bonds. Should be no problem.

If your portfolio beats the 500 and bonds 60/40 then it's doing well.
portfoliovisualizer.com has several good calculators.
by patrick013
Fri Nov 12, 2021 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Most secure Two factor authentication out of Fidelity, Vanguard, Charles Schwab?
Replies: 69
Views: 19729

Re: Most secure Two factor authentication out of Fidelity, Vanguard, Charles Schwab?

VG has the Yubikey, but you cannot disable SMS so you're not fully secure. Schwab, Fidelity, and eTrade offer VIP Access and that is very secure. Somewhat more secure are the physical tokens for Schwab and Wells Fargo, although Wells also falls back to SMS. TD Ameritrade doesn't have any of these second factors, and this is my one negative comment on their otherwise excellent service. Perhaps this will change once they're integrated with Schwab. Anyone know if Fidelity supports other 2FA apps (specifically Microsoft Authenticator)? I'd hate to had to install yet another 2fa application just for my bank. Currently using SMS but would prefer 2FA. Firefox has an Authenticator app that handles VIP and Google codes and probably any other codes ...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are some Bonds better than others when Rates Increase?
Replies: 19
Views: 2385

Re: Are some Bonds better than others when Rates Increase?

Look for bonds with high coupons. It's said they will fare better but the difference being a fraction 0f a percent. Funds with high premiums like most VG bond funds are trying to hedge the rate hikes somewhat. They're not looking for discounted bond prices as rates steadily rise, if they do.
by patrick013
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a proven stock market predictor?
Replies: 93
Views: 6985

Re: Is there a proven stock market predictor?

TimeToThink wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:37 pm Is there such a thing as a proven stock market predictor? I suspect I might hear nothing but birds as a response, but please indulge me if you have one or two in your pocket.
Ask any broker. He should reply as earnings go up the prices
of stocks go up. As the 500 goes so goes the market. Right
now the 500 earnings growth isn't considered very bullish but
the prices sure are. The market must know what it is doing
while the paradox continues.

Some companies are excellent but more than usual can't post
a PE because they don't have any earnings.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?
Replies: 149
Views: 15874

Re: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?

prioritarian wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:14 pm
bubbly wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:26 am
prioritarian wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:05 am Treasuries > Total Bond > Corporate bonds. Longer treasury durations have the most negative correlation (albeit with higher volatility).
Curious where you or anyone else would put Munis on this list? State specific and national?
I haven't seen a study that looks at flight to safety for munis but I expect they would behave like investment-grade bonds.
I'd go as far as saying anything AAA has a flight to safety effect and that TRSY's
are the most visually obvious and dramatic. They jump first while the other
AAA's may take longer to gain and appear better priced compared to overpriced
TRSY's before they gain.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?
Replies: 149
Views: 15874

Re: Recession probabilities are on the rise. Could a recession be on the horizon?

BNY Mellon recent observations sees most sectors in
recovery from COVID while the chance of market risk
(decline) still not removed. Nothing new.

A market that cannot operate with normal interest rates
certainly has weakness and has for a long time. When
the market declines with low interest rates those recovered
sectors would be stalling again. My comment.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing without dividends?
Replies: 20
Views: 2176

Re: Indexing without dividends?

sia wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 11:33 am
Know a bunch of companies don't pay dividends but that feels like stock picking and would much rather have an indexed approach.
Actually studies have shown some dividends aren't that bad.
Two things req'd. Upper percentile of total returns and a
subsequent increase in any dividend paid. Doesn't have to be
an enormous increase. The stocks usually stay in the upper
percentile then of total returns. Can't think of a fund that
factors that scenario just better growth stocks perhaps.

Just shows that zero dividends may not get into the highest
return percentile then.
by patrick013
Fri Nov 05, 2021 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selecting one or two index funds/mutual funds/ETFs for brokerage account for myself and my fiancée
Replies: 13
Views: 1110

Re: Selecting one or two index funds/mutual funds/ETFs for brokerage account for myself and my fiancée

Smaller newer funds have less unrealized capital gains while
the older jumbo funds may have considerable unrealized capital
gains from several decades built in and tax may arise if those are
realized and distributions made. Hard to prevent but the initial
amount can change the desirability of some funds at the start.
by patrick013
Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can the sole trustee withdraw money from their own revocable living trust?
Replies: 30
Views: 2233

Re: Can the sole trustee withdraw money from their own revocable living trust?

Is a totten trust still legal and in use.

It doesn't look like a trustee would even be needed or required ?
by patrick013
Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Search
Replies: 3
Views: 824

Re: Asset Search

are you the trustee now? What was the address being used for the trust previously? mail still coming there? Do you have prior year tax returns which may have clues, or do you have the trust EIN and can see if the trusts IRS transcripts have any clues? (assuming you are the trustee) Was the trustee having an accounting firm do the taxes? They should have records on what 1099's/K-1's came into the trust Mike The only response I can think of is I tried to logon to the IRS with the FED ID but a password was req'd. I would love to know every brokerage account registered with the IRS per this FED ID. All the trustees have died. The trustee and the co-trustee. This trust isn't that large, a local lawyer was the co-trustee. Communications were lac...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 01, 2021 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Search
Replies: 3
Views: 824

Asset Search

Recently needed to perform an asset search for brokerage accounts
within a trust. The search was unsuccessful.

The search company replied they very rarely are successful except
in rare cases regarding probate but the search is still worth doing.
Ads offering these searches may turn up nothing except in rare cases.

OK. So while the former trustee has deceased leaving no detailed
records my attempt at recovering detailed records has failed from
a national financial record search. Has anyone attempted an asset
search to recreate or locate pertinent trust brokerage accounts to
regain accurate asset info when the former trustee was a sketchy
bookeeper and online accounts may be involved ?
by patrick013
Sat Oct 30, 2021 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pretax vs. Roth Contributions for Individual 401(k) and IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 1371

Re: Pretax vs. Roth Contributions for Individual 401(k) and IRA

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5725892#p5725892 For tIRA vs Roth it's about present and future tax rates (see above). For 401k's there's other options recreated by elective and employer contributions. It's seems that traditional 401k's provide that welcome tax reduction but the extra contributions that can lead to a backdoor Roth are equally tempting. Your 401k looks flexible in that you can receive pretax current tax reduction as well as direct Roth or backdoor Roth contributions your budget is comfortable with. A long term Roth is a very good investment while the traditional creates a benefit to your current portfolio thru those realized tax credits. Overall traditional is best when future taxes will be lower. Roth optio...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock/Bond Mix in Retirement: The Surprise In The Data
Replies: 121
Views: 15103

Re: Stock/Bond Mix in Retirement: The Surprise In The Data

martincmartin wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:29 am
The problem with "your age in bonds."

But some say "age - 20," others say constant allocation. Let data decide! For a 4% withdrawal rate, a constant 50/50 allocation has a 91.67% success rate on cFIREsim. How much better is "age in bonds"?
I've always thought "Age-in-bonds Stop at 50" was conservative but not that
much. Is there a way to backtest that ?
by patrick013
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about Portfolio Allocation and Location
Replies: 7
Views: 971

Re: Questions about Portfolio Allocation and Location

Cras108er wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:05 pm
STOCK
28% U.S. Large Cap
12% U.S. Mid/Small Cap
18% International
2% Individual

BOND
11% U.S. Short Term
14% U.S. Intermediate
3% U.S. Long Term
11% International

Do those sound about right for our situation?
Have you looked in the VG wiki for tax efficient allocation for your portfolio allocation ?
by patrick013
Wed Oct 20, 2021 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation dilemma
Replies: 29
Views: 5017

Re: asset allocation dilemma

gabe1955 wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:55 pm Should I consider my SS and pension income to be part of my bond holdings and feel okay about the aggressive seeming asset allocation?
Some advisors think the next market crash won't last 3 years or
longer so target dating annual expenses for 3 to 5 years with a
3 to 5 year CD or TRSY bond ladder would lessen any portfolio
devaluation while the crash lasted. Devalued stocks would not
need to be sold and bonds redeemed at par provide scheduled
liquidity. You could keep your Roth in stock funds but selling
stocks funds in taxable and buying bonds there every year while
spreading taxes yearly somewhat would leave the portfolio in a
better position conceptually.
by patrick013
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 163
Views: 23124

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:10 pm
patrick013 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:05 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:12 am
namajones wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:40 am "Age in bonds" will become popular during the next downturn...
Probably, but if it does, it will likely have much more to do with recency bias and a short-term mindset than anything else.
If the market crashes really bad and you don't have AIB's then
I guess you could live off social security. Living off a stock
fund primarily is a little riskier.
Exceptionally few, and none that I recall in this thread, have suggested 100% stocks for those in or nearing retirement.
Occasionally someone does and rather rationally depending on the 100% allocation.
by patrick013
Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 163
Views: 23124

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:12 am
namajones wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:40 am "Age in bonds" will become popular during the next downturn...
Probably, but if it does, it will likely have much more to do with recency bias and a short-term mindset than anything else.
If the market crashes really bad and you don't have AIB's then
I guess you could live off social security. Living off a stock
fund primarily is a little riskier.

If my portfolio was:

25% market portfolio - index
25% public utilities - index
50% 10 year TRSY ladder

and had a couple million saved up I don't think I'd
be starving in any case. Public utilities making
stable payouts while interest rates are low.
by patrick013
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I calculate the probably of two events both happening?
Replies: 49
Views: 3771

Re: How do I calculate the probably of two events both happening?

I've read this referred to -

If a bull market there's a 90% chance of that continuing
because the business cycle is 9-10 years usually.

If a recession there's a 10% chance that it will continue
because the business cycle is actually in recession for one
year every 10 years usually.

Conforms to Markov probability chain observations also which
little is known about by me.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Possibly including dividend stocks/ETFs in investment strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 4656

Re: Possibly including dividend stocks/ETFs in investment strategy

john963red wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:43 pm Any advice is appreciated, but please keep in mind that I do understand the volatility and risks associated with money in the stock market, and remember that my emergency fund is separate from these investments.
Image

These funds have a pretty close race especially in a normal business
cycle. Dividends look best in a Roth if any. Check the wiki for tax
efficient fund placement.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 618996

Re: Larry Swedroe Portfolio

Taylor Larimore wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:59 pm Bogleheads:

According to Optimized Portfolio, this is the most recent "Larry Swedroe Portfolio" (70% Intermediate-Term bonds).

https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/larr ... portfolio/

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The Lehman Bond Index (total bond market), in substance, is an appropriate choice for investors with an intermediate-term time horizon and seeking top quality."
+1

He was alwaysgood with bonds.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treynor Ratio
Replies: 8
Views: 1129

Re: Treynor Ratio

While I usually base AA on pretty basic percentages and like
a lower beta if possible...

My favorite metric has become:

avg annual return / std. deviation


Historically any fund on the top end of this has had stable and
at the same time a high return. Take your funds and rank them
at least for your own information. High ranking funds based on
total return should have a high ranking also using this metric.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a Equal Weight Fund in Vanguard
Replies: 19
Views: 13607

Re: Looking for a Equal Weight Fund in Vanguard

heyyou wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:44 pm If the concept of the equal weighted index is what suits an investor, go with it, as that is more important than striving for more return with more risk. That is not the most popular position here at the home of cap weighted indexing.
If the newest Little Book of Common Sense Investing is available Chapter 16
has some info about "other indexes" as more ETF's appear. Some are more
competitive than others not to abandon the "market portfolio" but hopefully
add value to the overall portfolio. So Bogle's advice appears relevant and
promotes liquidity with the usual high return.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for a Equal Weight Fund in Vanguard
Replies: 19
Views: 13607

Re: Looking for a Equal Weight Fund in Vanguard

I came across an equally weighted ETF called the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). Does Vanguard have any ETFs or Index Funds similar to the RSP? Actually there is no decisive study that condemns equal-weight especially for large caps. Mid and small cap equal weight indexes aren't as encouraging. Gains that come from market weight can also produce losses if the stocks losing are heavy with market cap allocations. So investors think RSP can reduce losses since each stock is weighted equal and are happy with returns otherwise. Either one, RSP or VG 500 can have a better decade. Luckily there's enough history to look at. https://bn1305files.storage.live.com/y4mspPWsxW8BQ0FrXo-NHA6OmVKGJJ581QXabGlWB4LntI0iK78Ga8a42LhplnaYpErRMfpm9XA0...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should bond-fund duration match the investor's investment horizon?
Replies: 42
Views: 4174

Re: Should bond-fund duration match the investor's investment horizon?

whereskyle wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:34 am
But then yesterday I read through the thread from 2008 in which Sheepdog posted about his panic and likely capitulation. This prompted me to do a play-by-play in portfolio visualizer of month-by-month returns of the 2008 crash all the way through to the end of the bear in 2012.
viewtopic.php?p=2862276#p2862276

The above shows LTCG's available in the market crash in early 2009
from 2008 gains in TRSY's both long and intermediate.

Image