Search found 1874 matches

by patrick013
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 34
Views: 2512

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

If anyone is not using past performance to forecast future performance, I would like to know what they are using to forecast future performance. If they are not forecasting future performance, they are either lying, unaware, or in denial. A stochastic model is a tool for estimating probability dist...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Firefox upgrade broke my add-on, switched to Waterfox
Replies: 28
Views: 3516

Re: Firefox upgrade broke my add-on, switched to Waterfox

So if I leave FF 57 as is and put WF in /opt I'll have the old
add-ons plus FF 57 improvements, mostly add-on updates.

Well if they ever make Blur for a local system I'm for it.
Fascinating. I know what it's like not trusting the cloud.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Firefox upgrade broke my add-on, switched to Waterfox
Replies: 28
Views: 3516

Re: Firefox upgrade broke my add-on, switched to Waterfox

In Linux, the Kee – Add-ons for Firefox (KeePass interface) is not working in Firefox 57. I'm still using Waterfox until I can find a replacement. Try Blur add-on for passwords. Finds everything it seems. Cloud program. If I install Waterfox for Linux will I have to uninstall FF57 ? Where would I p...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

But the gross return amply covers the taxes and the net return after taxes exceeds the net return after taxes of say a 500 fund . This adds up in the total return column. [citation needed] :confused Just personal computations on a spreadsheet. Yes but my objection is matter-of-factly projecting the...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

triceratop wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:48 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:08 pm

But the gross return amply covers the taxes and the net return after
taxes exceeds the net return after taxes of say a 500 fund. This
adds up in the total return column.
[citation needed] :confused
Just personal computations on a spreadsheet.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

The extra tax cost of a high-dividend fund is greater if you never sell than if you do sell. In funds which pay high dividends, the share price grows more slowly because more of the return is paid to you in a dividend. If you sell, you will pay tax on the return either way; receiving it as a divide...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

The extra tax cost of a high-dividend fund is greater if you never sell than if you do sell. In funds which pay high dividends, the share price grows more slowly because more of the return is paid to you in a dividend. If you sell, you will pay tax on the return either way; receiving it as a divide...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2226

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

This brings me to my question. Would it be a better idea for someone like myself to invest in, say, the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund as a core holding? From my research, it tracks relatively closely to the S&P 500, and has returns over 8% for the past 10 year period. It is also yielding ...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9078

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

One of the best advisors in the country advocates dividend growth and bond ladders going forward. Also noticed international dividends are increasing especially in asia/pacific. Perhaps a good EM dividend fund would be good reading about. Oh well. And what is the name of this advisor? Just a full p...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9078

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

One of the best advisors in the country advocates dividend
growth and bond ladders going forward.

Also noticed international dividends are increasing especially
in asia/pacific. Perhaps a good EM dividend fund would be
good reading about. Oh well.
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examining Total Portfolio Performance: U.S. Government Vs. Corporate Bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 289

Re: Examining Total Portfolio Performance: U.S. Government Vs. Corporate Bonds

https://www.onefpa.org/journal/PublishingImages/Pages/Journal%20Articles/Dec2017_Contribution_Luskin_Table4.png These studies never emphasize whether interest rates are rising or falling. Whether a portfolio should be long term or weighted to short term regarding bonds. Gains are there holding to m...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 4
Views: 528

Re: Portfolio Review

Can you move more "taxable income" to munis to facilitate Roth conversions for a couple years ? Even a Muni Money Market fund at Vanguard. Use an online tax program to figure the tax on conversions then at a lower tax rate. Conversion Calc I usually think a lower tax rate before 70 is desirable for ...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 4
Views: 528

Re: Portfolio Review

I think you're stuck in a high tax bracket for conversions or stock sales. Some would convert or sell over a 5 to 8 year period if the tax would be about the same as waiting for RMD's etc.. Or a 1 to 2 year period while getting good prices and setting up permanent Roth's or other investments going f...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Guidance
Replies: 3
Views: 301

Re: Portfolio Guidance

Sort your tax-deferred funds based on ER. It should be easy to allocate then based on your desired AA. Staying in your 15% marginal bracket you should be able to sell some funds and pay 0% tax up to the 15% limit. Put the numbers in an online tax program to estimate. Now is a good time to sell stock...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9078

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

If the market has positive returns tax efficiency can be better but even then excess returns can be seen with the dividend payers. If the market has negative returns for several years then dividend payers will at least supply some return in the form of dividends. Dividends are a sign of corporate pr...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 297
Views: 46214

Re: Retreat to cash

Journalists today are watching net inflows to money markets increase
while floor brokers expect big increases in the DOW and the 500 due
to favorable economic conditions persisting. The market isn't selling
the big indexes at a discount.
by patrick013
Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking investment/personal finance opinions
Replies: 6
Views: 566

Re: Seeking investment/personal finance opinions

Investment Priorities
Portfolio Allocation Models
I usually pay off debt when the interest rate is higher than my annual return
in per cent.
And read the new Boglehead Guide, it's only $25.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 743

Re: Help me choose one of these High Dividend Yield ETFs

SPHD, SDOG, SPYD, and PEY come to mind. SPYD has the lowest fee but also the lowest net assets for a somewhat newer ETF. DTN would be good if another bank crisis occurs. With rising interest rates who can tell what will happen to dividend stocks ? Another unknown. If you don't need the money put the...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11334

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Not being a RIA or an institutional investor guess I'd have
to choose something like these if interested.

Invesco - Factor Investing
by patrick013
Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1705

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

For bonds you need to see if rates are going down, then all funds do well , or if rates are going up So if rates are going up and some bond sectors have returns going up while other sectors have returns going down then "say what?". Well alot depends on demand, the reason for a 1% spread. If the FFR...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11334

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Even "beta" has a confidence interval. Somewhat inclined to
take a look and forget about it. I still like the total return
column for general indexes.
by patrick013
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1705

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

For bonds you need to see if rates are going down, then all funds do well , or if rates are going up So if rates are going up and some bond sectors have returns going up while other sectors have returns going down then "say what?". Well alot depends on demand, the reason for a 1% spread. If the FFR...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1705

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

For bonds you need to see if rates are going down, then all funds do well, or if rates are going up. I'm betting on turnover of a short-term bond or fund to get to the optimal time to go long-term without incurring a loss. If I had a 40 year study where a stock fund category had excess returns and a...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11334

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

So the Russell 2000 is getting over-factored. Good enough for
small caps.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Sense on Mutual Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2072

Re: Common Sense on Mutual Funds

I'd go with the EM Index fund for China and other emerging markets and let the 500 index fund cover Europe and whatever else it has for revenue in other foreign markets. But not as high as Vanguard recommends. To me it's information. They display plenty of stats for negative correlation and numerica...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 26, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 213
Views: 16233

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Image

For 2018 the 500 looks good in the 2600's with $115 for EPS estimate.
If the FFR goes up to 2% and earnings stall don't know. Wish it would
correct and get it over with. Need earnings...earnings...earnings... :)
by patrick013
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 64
Views: 3806

Re: Gold?

One old story : "It is stated that the late P. D. Armour cabled from Europe early in 1893 to his representatives in America, instructing them to secure and store away in vaults one million dollars in gold. It is known that during the panic, later in that year, Armour & Co. were well supplied with re...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?
Replies: 8
Views: 738

Re: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?

Maybe I’m missing something. As I understand, beta is an expression of how much of the security’s change is explained by change in the market. If iShares’s figure for LQD’s beta is calculated against the S&P500, then i’m not at all surprised at the low figure. LQD is a bond fund, so figuring agains...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9640

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/2017beta3.png Having many stocks and bonds is certainly diversification. So, I add some concern to reducing risk metrics like beta or standard deviation. In this case beta with the reduced expectation of future returns. It's not a Monte of course.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 25, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 file backup
Replies: 9
Views: 834

Re: Windows 10 file backup

Try 7-Zip. It's a free file and backup program.
by patrick013
Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 9
Views: 1941

Re: A checkup on the S&P 500 index

Pick one of the stocks in that screen and look at Moody's bond rating sheet on their website. Looked at ticker R (Ryder) a few days ago. Their ratios are somewhat poor especially Debt/Equity. They spend every dime they get. But they still hold on to a BBB bond rating, barely. Interesting story. They...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1517

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

Fidelity Go — Professional Money Management

This is their least expensive program. They even help you choose your asset
allocation. At least they look like all investment grade products. But DIY
can do that.
by patrick013
Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Basic DESKTOP?
Replies: 72
Views: 4802

Re: Best Basic DESKTOP?

Anything with DDR4 memory. Just overall faster machines.
An Intel i3 CPU with that should be very nice.
For surfing the internet etc..
by patrick013
Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dice
Replies: 40
Views: 3280

Re: Slice and Dice

Image

Main idea is to reduce beta with as good or better than market return.
Without further going into sectors, which I think would increase beta,
these should at least satisfy various tilts, etc..
by patrick013
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1739

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images ... sed660.png

My little summary of spread history shows we're definitely not in the
better frequency of longer term premium observations. :)
by patrick013
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time investor looking to jump in market but apprehensive with record highs
Replies: 23
Views: 2997

Re: First time investor looking to jump in market but apprehensive with record highs

I'd never buy stocks at 25 PE, too overbought for me. I'd wait
till next year. My discretion. But I know a few people that
are definitely holding. I like a good entry point, a better entry
point.
by patrick013
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1739

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

How much pricing pressure are they really exerting on US bonds across the yield curve? Would the 10-year be at 4% were it not for foreign investors? 3%? Not even that much? What's actually the impact? Foreign investors are buying about 22% of all TRSY sales. So it's in the trillions. Certainly buyi...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1739

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond me. There was a saying in school about regressions. Something like with one factor you can draw a line, with two you can draw a curve ... with four you can draw an elephant and with fi...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1739

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor
system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond
me.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1739

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

There's several articles every month but they all point to similar observations depending of who has written them. Federal Debt held by the public should rise to 90% of GDP. Increased demand will keeps spreads down to 1% for TRSY 10 for the foreseeable future. FFR will rise peaking in several years....
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4295

Re: Bogle has a forecast...

I think Jack also mentioned he expects a 2% decrease in valuation. When you take that into consideration you are looking at 2% real not 4%. Based on 10 year TRSY interest rates vs 500 earnings yield very possible. PE's will lower if interest rates spike to help the economy. A BBB rated yield compar...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 814

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

However, it is almost proverbial that stocks in the countries with the fastest-growing GDPs have not consistently yielded the highest returns. In fact there's almost no correlation. Correlation Coefficients, using the observations 1950 - 2016 US Stocks : Price - 1.00 GNP - .956 GDP - .956 EPS - .94...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2451

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

My view is my cornerstone investment is the 500 (or TSM) that has a beta risk of 1 or very close to 1. To be more aggressive I could invest in a small cap fund which would have a beta about 1.10 adding volatility to the entire portfolio. An older investor would add to the 500 a telecom fund perhaps ...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: Beta and the Market

If you really want to use beta to calc your portfolio volatility
stockrover.com has a 3 year beta which is calc'd using the
S&P 500 index. Nice to be consistent with all the calc's and
have the number available then.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: Beta and the Market

According to the advisor's manual the S&P 500 is the general US equity index and the LC index. I see no reason why an All Company World Index should be used to calc beta's for an US investor like Yahoo and Morningstar are doing. The beta calc's are very different then. Supposed to calc beta's accord...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1495

Re: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account

I've asked my wife to contact their benefits department about lump sum after tax contributions to her 401K. Looking at the plan literature it appears to me that they only accept payroll contributions. Never hurts to ask but it's very common to accept payroll contributions only. Some allow Roth conv...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1495

Re: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account

Contributions New annual Contributions $18000 401k – pre-tax payroll deduction $9000 401K as a company match $6000 into 401K as an after-tax contribution When your estimate of marginal tax rate in retirement is less than your marginal tax rate when working pre-tax or traditional is desirable, other...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1537

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

There's always going to be some extra movement when stocks go down. Logically demand is greater for bonds then. So, generally you can follow the money : - when earnings go up bonds go down as money moves to stocks - when earnings go down bonds go up as money moves from stocks Some movements cancel e...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4295

Re: Bogle has a forecast...

I think Bogle's formulation quite pragmatic. So we hear all day long about high valuations, the 500 at 3000, interest rates spiking..... All journalism to sell some newsletter. https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/forecastthru20181.png Here we have the 500 priced at small earnings grow...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 652

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

My Firefox add-on stopped working so I switched to stockrover.com Not really a spreadsheet but does the job. Has a few extra features like index databases, watchlist, and whatnot. Here's a report I made. https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/stockrover.png Some people are getting Google...