Search found 2400 matches

by patrick013
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Understanding the difference in cell phone OS types
Replies: 29
Views: 1048

Re: Understanding the difference in cell phone OS types

I just bought a used Kindle just to check the news, email, not much else it will do I think. Not much power just a screen. Looked at many tablets from 7" to 10". Apple, Android, Linux OS's very common. One 10" new Onda tablet had an 8 core processor, 4G telephone capability, claims it can do almost ...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 33
Views: 1217

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

My question is what is the regulatory, or should I say paperwork burden difference between holding himself out as purchasing suitable investments (which is what he is doing) and being a fiduciary? The account agreement needs to have full disclosure. Is it a 1 time consultation or a does the advisor...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5656

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Curious that Agency 10's at par are yielding 4% today, very much in line with these averages. Agencies have an additional risk that you may not be taking into account. A lot of these are mortgage backed securities, which sell an embedded call option via refinancing in falling rate environments. Als...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5656

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

The way Liquidity Preference Theory was taught to me the term premium represents lost opportunity cost. In plain language buyers should want higher interest for higher maturities as compensation for giving up their money for longer periods of time. Reinvestment risk or inflation risk has little or n...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5656

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

I haven't updated this in a while so I thought I might as well. New graph up top. No actual analysis here, just basically graphing the available info. ACM model still does not think much of current pricing in bonds (still thinks a negative term premium is priced in), even with all rates up since la...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Bond Funds or Tips Funds or Bond Ladder
Replies: 11
Views: 1238

Re: Short Bond Funds or Tips Funds or Bond Ladder

I need to have readily available investments available many suggest a Bond Ladder for this purpose CD Ladder Fidelity has 2 and 5 year CD ladders ready for push button investment. Or you can make your own for any maturity. They usually yield more than a ST Bond fund and a TRSY10. They've been popul...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help to understand bonds maturity vs investment timeline
Replies: 3
Views: 389

Re: Help to understand bonds maturity vs investment timeline

To me it is more important to be in the right maturity for bonds. The trouble right now is bonds don't pay that much and some investors don't want large equity AA due to other risk. When interest rates are high, constant, or falling then some capital gains are expected as well as normal interest inc...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VIG (and SCHD etc) [tilting towards dividend stocks]
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: VIG (and SCHD etc) [tilting towards dividend stocks]

https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-the-beauty-of-simplicity-the-sp-500-low-volatility-high-dividend-index.pdf?force_download=true Exhibit 10 above has a good selection of other dividend index funds that have had good returns while interest rates were low. Ticker SCHD is on the exhi...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guide to work out your asset allocation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1094

Re: Guide to work out your asset allocation?

Aggressive (young worker) = 75% stocks

Moderate = 50% stocks

Conservative (retired) = 25% stocks

Portfolio Allocation Models
by patrick013
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

Well expected YTM will just have to do for expected prices. Excess demand is keeping spreads low around 1% for TRSY10. But volatility being what it is lately anything between 0% and 2% for spread is somewhat possible. That creates a buying or selling sign but I don't really want to do that. Watching...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Good explanation of how bond funds don't get crushed in rising rate environment

I've yet to read through a quality explanation of why bond funds don't get hammered in a rising rate environment? The lazy analysis you hear a lot is that bonds are a terrible place to be in such an environment. Can someone provide a thorough explanation of how bond funds that many of you invest in...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to ditch the financial advisor?
Replies: 17
Views: 2090

Re: Time to ditch the financial advisor?

Thanks for the links - hadn't heard of a backdoor roth until today. Regarding the tax implications - is the caution just to be prepared for a bill or will they affect my move? Seems like I'm stuck paying them and a new AA and investing approach is needed regardless. You could keep them and just fun...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to ditch the financial advisor?
Replies: 17
Views: 2090

Re: Time to ditch the financial advisor?

New to trying to actually understand my investments and looking for some advice. If you think you will be in the same tax bracket in retirement I'd start putting money in Roth or Backdoor Roth . Check the VG wiki also. Reallocate using Tax-efficient Fund Placement . I'd put some investment grade mu...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bond Funds Really a Good Investment Now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5005

Re: Are Bond Funds Really a Good Investment Now?

I don't believe that common investors have any idea. Most people do have some idea at least to the point where they can adjust their bond AA to avoid most losses or avoid below average bond returns due to policy rate changes that happen from time to time. Fed watching should give confidence rather ...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bond Funds Really a Good Investment Now?
Replies: 44
Views: 5005

Re: Are Bond Funds Really a Good Investment Now?

Some people think LT is a sure thing but what if there is a secular trend of downward rates. That's simple. What if there is a secular trend of higher rates. One unknown Phd candidate who claims influence from Fabozzi, Damodaran, and Choudhry has some ideas about the recent bond market. He says: "Cu...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is an MBA worth it these days?
Replies: 53
Views: 6292

Re: Is an MBA worth it these days?

It's only worth it if you can get into a top ten school. It's a bunch of luck too. I know a fellow that rec'd his MBA from a decent small local school. Knew people from the neighborhood, one of whom was an officer at a very big regional corp.. His encouragement was an element in his securing employ...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is an MBA worth it these days?
Replies: 53
Views: 6292

Re: Is an MBA worth it these days?

For construction projects it could be very project related. I mean investment theory, corp theory, etc. may have very little meaning. Even a real estate emphasis might be better. Even a Business Administration emphasis could be less pertinent than a Project Management emphasis. Project approval, cas...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD vs. Deferred Fixed Annuity
Replies: 13
Views: 1334

Re: CD vs. Deferred Fixed Annuity

So, high tax, taxable account, large deposit/investment, fixed time/duration. Guaranteed rate of return? What are other potential options or alternatives? A 3-year treasury? There is an exclusion ratio which covers annuities. This determines how much of the payment is return of principal and how mu...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17189

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Someone who desires a very high stock AA needs to be aware
of the drawdowns possible. I'm thinking one CD for each year's
expenses.

Image
by patrick013
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cap value, small cap, mid cap, etc. index funds
Replies: 15
Views: 988

Re: Large cap value, small cap, mid cap, etc. index funds

bigtex wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:41 pm
Is it still within Boglehead parameters to hold these types of index funds such as large cap value index fund (IVE), VIGRX (Vanguard Large Cap Growth), or IJR (Small Cap Core)?
As long as you are interested I tilt to the own's below.

Portfolio Asset Allocation
by patrick013
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is an MBA worth it these days?
Replies: 53
Views: 6292

Re: Is an MBA worth it these days?

BeanCity wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:45 pm
I want to get into the financial side of construction for commercial real estate, where I would evaluate/run financials on new deals.
What would be the cost of a second BS degree ? Nothing in Finance
it wouldn't cover. Tuition has risen and it's hard to justify it.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Here's a text from the web site of an investment advisory firm (Merriman) found googling "irr time-weighted" (first hit): http://www.merriman.com/investing-101/performance-time-weighted-return-vs-internal-rate-of-return/ TWR = time-weighted return IRR = internal rate of return There really is no pr...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

The key point is this: the money-weighted returns of two investments X and Y over a period T aren't comparable ( unless they had identical cash flows except for the final balance ). On the other hand, the widely published time-weighted returns of various investments are comparable. My only point is...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

No! Fund companies must use time-weighted returns when reporting annualized returns / compound returns. Interested readers can learn about the difference by reading our wiki: Calculating personal returns Whether you want investor returns or portfolio returns all of those IRR's give identical answer...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

I don't know why we're discussing such basic stuff in a thread that clearly involves members who seem to know the basic mathematics of investing. IRR is a money-weighted return . The IRR goes my many other names : YTM effective yield annualized return compound return ... No! Fund companies must use...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Internal Rate of Return = discount rate where the PV equals zero. Dozens of industry or security specific names for the IRR. The IRR goes my many other names : YTM effective yield annualized return compound return annual percentage yield discounted ROI compound interest rate cumulative cash return r...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 204
Views: 18835

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

I thought it was well established that 5 and 10 year annual returns have historically been within +/- 1% of the starting SEC yield. And when posters are demonstrating that the correlation between the two has indeed been quite high, many are still stating that the SEC yield isn't a "good predictor."...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income other than bonds, CD's, money market?
Replies: 7
Views: 965

Re: Fixed income other than bonds, CD's, money market?

A Single Premium Immediate Annuity could be good if you
are older and the rates were higher. The internal rate of
return based on your projected lifespan is usually over CD
APY rates. So it would be better to wait till interest rates
were higher.
by patrick013
Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vehicle recommendations for long commutes in CO mountains
Replies: 72
Views: 4718

Re: Vehicle recommendations for long commutes in CO mountains

What's the benefit of a Silverado or a RAM 1500 4x4 ?

The Subaru is a smaller vehicle I think.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math
Replies: 21
Views: 3918

Re: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math

That's what I'm trying to get at. Adding the return doesn't produce the correct return. This is a math problem, not a data problem, and I'm just not smart enough to figure out why the math is off. Every forecast is off by a specific error term. I like using a confidence interval. It gives the forec...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math
Replies: 21
Views: 3918

Re: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math

I like the way Bogle does it. Dividend yield, earnings growth, and change in PE. When I use those metrics instead of economic indicators the estimate is more precise or realistic. Stock estimates you can easily cut in half IMO but dividends, and PE following EPS and interest rates respectively is wh...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 89
Views: 8571

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

With a 50-50 AA I'm staying with a 3 to 5 year CD ladder. Will reallocate to BLV (long term index) when rates support a higher average YTM. Perhaps a 25% AA of bond allocation for BLV. Perhaps a 50% of total bond AA to BLV if rates will really show an excellent above long term average YTM for long t...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields
Replies: 20
Views: 1488

Re: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields

Why do people expect others to sell their bonds then? My observation is that the mean spread will be closer to the actual current spread the longer the FFR stays the same. So, if the FFR is 2.0% an average price for a TRSY 5 would be 2.71% where .71% is the mean spread over the FFR for a TRSY 5 for...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

I wish they just raise the rates and get it over with anyway. Alot more enjoyable in fixed income when rates are higher than scrounging around with target dates, ladders, and a few tea leaves. Both bonds and stocks are assets. Since you don't define dynamic asset allocation as market timing, do you...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Making investment decisions based on reading tea leaves or guesses about which way the wind will blow on Friday is foolish. It’s your money, but let’s not pretend that it amounts to anything more than a naive attempt at timing the market. I don't define dynamic asset allocation as market timing. No...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Well read the Fed, they are the experts, they have the answers to that. They are the best advisors. You get what you pay for. "Read the Fed" is not coherent investment strategy: market timing doesn't work, plain and simple. Anyone who says differently is selling something. I'd rather have the infor...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

2pedals wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:37 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:52 pm

Better returns staying short term for awhile should add to total returns.
So, what the Fed experts have said is not already priced in the bond market. I find that very hard to believe.
Well it isn't.
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

The bond managers I'm reading today all agree on one thing from following the Fed. Shorten maturity, shorten duration. Some are managing tens of billions of dollars in bonds and are not afraid to say so. The bond managers were saying that 5-7 years ago... And they missed out. Nobody's an expert. Lo...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

The notion that an individual investor can predict the trajectory of future bond prices better than the market can is a myth that won't die. Many otherwise smart people, who espouse Boglehead beliefs in every other way, seem to cling to the notion that market timing is possible and even easy in fix...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16539

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:04 pm
I always laugh when people talk about a bond "crash". What you mean having them going down 5% in a year?
Three year history is a little better. There's some 2 year history.

Image
by patrick013
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2656

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

Highest expectation is the FFR at 3.5% which would put the Prime rate guideline at 6.5%. So govt and corp bonds could get rates at some spread to the FFR. Interest rates are still low and investors are expecting their rise. Interest rates can be a concern to investors because as rates rise, the NAV...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2656

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

Highest expectation is the FFR at 3.5% which would put the Prime rate guideline at 6.5%. So govt and corp bonds could get rates at some spread to the FFR. Interest rates are still low and investors are expecting their rise. Interest rates can be a concern to investors because as rates rise, the NAV ...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11277

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2487

Re: Masters Degree Advice

Well any employer paid deal is probably worth it. Assuming future promotions or employment is considered. My employer paid for my college but we lost a big customer, centralized operations, etc.. So all I got was a free degree in a market with many other degreed people which I didn't feel like leavi...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1804

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

As a general rule I would buy AAA corp or muni's just for diversification, 5 year maturity or less. Otherwise the bond funds provide diversification and higher yields. Right now it looks like a 2 year CD followed by a 2 year CD would beat a 4 year CD and probably high rated bonds as well. The 2020's...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to change tires; and what brand
Replies: 131
Views: 8441

Re: When to change tires; and what brand

Dunlop used to be good. Perhaps Cooper. Most of the others
just consumer grade. But they all have premium grade if so
desired.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2487

Re: Masters Degree Advice

Huskies26 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:48 pm

So an opportunity may arise in the near future to have my Masters in Systems Engineering fully paid for at a top 10 US University.
What does a Systems Engineer have or do ? Build bridges, design new machinery ?
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta
Replies: 5
Views: 699

Re: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta

I would minimize the Coefficient of Variation so the stocks with lower CV's would have higher AA for a group of 10-15 promising stocks perhaps. Would use a linear program, be pragmatic, wouldn't address sectors, would weight the stocks to 100%, and probably not what you want. Almost like weighting b...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11277

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in t...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing During Retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 2788

Re: Investing During Retirement

Instead of putting a portion (20%, 40%, 60%) of your money in bonds or a bond fund (short term or not), put your risk off money in short term CD's, which are guaranteed (with certain reasonable restrictions). It's the day when a 2 year CD followed by another 2 year CD at maturity will beat a 4 year...