Search found 2291 matches

by patrick013
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 30
Views: 2204

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

I'm not asking for my own scenario, just from a theoretical point of view. Do any of you have an equity allocation less than 50%, but put that equity position disproportionately into the smalls? Yes, but into a small cap general index or blend index. Why ? Decades go by where growth beats value the...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1123

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

But how many factors are there ? A few or 8 or ten ? I think
more history is needed for some of them. Small seems to be
the most reliable with the most history and positive results
past and current. The others might revert into a bunch of
chaotic market timing. More history needed then.
by patrick013
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta
Replies: 12
Views: 1376

Re: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta

Beta is the largest driver of expected return for most stocks under CAPM and multi-factor models. I’m trying to understand how one can simultaneously believe those models are correct and believe that low beta stocks have a higher expected return than high beta stocks. Another point is that many low...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta
Replies: 12
Views: 1376

Re: Larry Swedroe: Betting Against Beta

Volatility is just something we have to live with. It can describe market uncertainty, growth, or just plain pricing chaos. High beta does produce higher returns but some low beta areas can have even higher returns as their movement tho lower is generally upward compared to the market. Utility and s...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 534
Views: 30886

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Bendee wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:36 am
What if the next 5-10 years show Int'l beating US?
I wouldn't have any faith in it if it doesn't. I need the money too much.
by patrick013
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 534
Views: 30886

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2010&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=02%2F13%2F2017&initialAmount=100000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=true&reinve...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate
Replies: 21
Views: 1746

Re: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate

Up until this point I've been maxing out my pre-tax 401k, Roth IRA, and HSA. I will soon open a spousal IRA for my wife. Distributions: $10-25k/yr (qualified dividends) It's not very common but it is possible to put the stocks into a Roth IRA. This would further reduce your taxable income. Ask your...
by patrick013
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evaluating Munis beyond rating
Replies: 11
Views: 875

Re: Evaluating Munis beyond rating

https://image.ibb.co/j46B39/staterankings2017.jpg The above list is already a year old. Also, some states have pensions that are greatly underfunded and that is a cause for concern when bond payments need to be made by whatever govt. unit has that type of deficit. Generally a AAA short term muni is ...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Traditional 401k and Roth 401k?
Replies: 14
Views: 608

Re: Traditional 401k and Roth 401k?

What if immediately after after-tax contributions, I convert it to a Roth IRA. Then, there would be minimal to no earnings. This seems to take care of the issue? I don't think you can do that every month. Once a year probably, so some tax may be payable as balances increase. But then you can pick y...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about investing in bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1466

Re: Question about investing in bonds

Is there any further material I can read on bonds? (besides the link above of course). Tax-efficient Fund Placement The above basically says first, put your bonds in a tax-advantaged (retirement) account preferably t401k and/or tIRA. Put your international equities in a taxable account when you hav...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12804

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

For an investor who is saving for retirement, the changes we are discussing in AA can increase or reduce retirement income by anywhere from 10% to 50%: I wouldn't say that such a difference "isn't important" to most people. Changes ? That's nothing new. People have known that for decades around her...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: True Risk-Adjuted Returns
Replies: 17
Views: 1134

Re: True Risk-Adjuted Returns

To take the simplest example I can think of, if the risk of getting wiped out in EM's was twice that of the S&P500, the EM's risk-adjusted return the way I look at risk would be 4%, not 8%. Is there a calculation for that? The least fancy financial term that could be used is the coefficient of vari...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12804

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

The failure is that people keep blindly repeating this "rule of thumb" as if it had some empirical or theoretical basis. Some bogleheads seem to take great delight in maligning the glide paths of target date retirement funds, but there has literally NEVER been period in US history when "age in bond...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12804

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

If age in bonds stop at 50 isn't liked I can't help it. The market could tank for 10 or 20 years and have zero return anytime it wants to. Say there's conservative, moderate, and aggressive investors. 25% stocks, 50% stocks, and 75% stocks respectively. Now there are 9 ways to do that here: Portfoli...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12804

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Obviously a simple rule is never going to be perfectly right for everyone. Heck, it might not be PERFECTLY right for anyone. But if we're going to dole out generalized advice, "age in bonds" has outlived its productive life and deserves to be retired. There's a variety of philosophies. Buffet is al...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

While I totally agree that TIPS make more sense, if you are going to use nominals, they should match your investment horizon(s). You're recommending IT or LT bonds when rates haven't peaked ? Longer term TRSY's are not paying 6-7-8% like they did in decades past. A longer investment horizon looks l...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2899

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

The yield of a five-year bond should be equal to bond traders' expectations of short-term rates over the next five years, plus a premium for the risk. And the same is true for 10 and 20 year TRSY's. The sellers are doubtful. Why should they lower the prices based on short term rates that haven't ri...
by patrick013
Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one become a financial advisor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2272

Re: How does one become a financial advisor?

Lets just say you want to do it part time and help your family and friends (i know.. i know..) There is a clause where it says if you only have a handful of clients and do not advise generally as a full time business for a fee they probably would let you casually advise a handful of people. But bei...
by patrick013
Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

Interesting graph of credit spreads and equity returns. https://dqydj.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/20yearriskpremium.png Nice chart, I'm always in the market for a few Aaa corp bonds. Here's my fav cheatsheet. Wish I could get an email alert when spreads are over 2% or under 1%. :) https://image....
by patrick013
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

So I officially don't know what to think. Well you're not going to get a good yield out of a 20 year bond that yields 3.1% YTM today no matter what duration or maturity immunization concept can do. The average yield for a TRSY 10 is 6.32%. I'd be saying why did I buy a bond at 3.1% when market yiel...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

triceratop wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:03 pm
At the same time the futures market is pricing a decrease in the 500 into
it's prices.
How is that possible?
They were talking about it on Bloomberg all morning. Did the
500 futures go back up ? I'll check in the morning again.
by patrick013
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I am boggled by investors who rail against active investing in equity portfolios but happily (or blindly) make huge active bets in their bond portfolio. Because we don't want a 20 year TRSY that pays 3.1% YTM today. Even a TRSY10 is projected to yield 4% or higher YTM in just a couple years while 2...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 112
Views: 11368

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I am boggled by investors who rail against active investing in equity portfolios but happily (or blindly) make huge active bets in their bond portfolio. Because we don't want a 20 year TRSY that pays 3.1% YTM today. Even a TRSY10 is projected to yield 4% or higher YTM in just a couple years while 2...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about investing in bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1466

Re: Question about investing in bonds

Is there any further material I can read on bonds? (besides the link above of course). Tax-efficient Fund Placement The above basically says first, put your bonds in a tax-advantaged (retirement) account preferably t401k and/or tIRA. Put your international equities in a taxable account when you hav...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1802

Re: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio

To that end, I became curious about what an optimally diversified yield-oriented ETF portfolio might look like. https://image.ibb.co/c3nYdz/Portfolios_PEY.jpg Putting PEY alongside some general indexes helps keep Beta low. You could put PEY or SPHD alongside some CD's and pick an AA for a desired B...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 30, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1802

Re: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio

To really get the benefit of high yield you need to stay with the structure of yield funds that beat the market portfolio. Primarily yield or equal weight, 50 to 100 stocks, and large cap is the most common bet although ticker PEY has multi-cap. SPHD and SPYD aren't bad but usually contain non-quali...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't count on Mean Reversion
Replies: 3
Views: 774

Re: Don't count on Mean Reversion

PE's seem to revert to a value corresponding to the yield on LT corp bonds, an earnings yield, but it takes 5 to 8 years sometimes for that movement to finish. Markets need to crash to get excessive valuations out of the way again. A big market demand adjustment. A big liquidity boycott. The 500 has...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2224

Re: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

So short term looks fine to me for awhile longer. Because the market knows exactly what you and everyone else knows, ie, that rates are expected to rise, today's prices fully embed that. Not true or I don't believe it. Spreads are too close to historical means, should be higher if that was true. Vo...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2224

Re: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

One perspective says to go long term as rates are not rising and a flat yield curve still has slightly better long term rates. Another perspective says to stay at 5-10 year and shorter maturities as there is no apparent term premium to go longer term. But the rate increases sound convincing and I th...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, help with portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 536

Re: New to investing, help with portfolio

Current 403b plan requires 9% of income with 15% employer match. I'd just be sure to invest to get the full tax-deferred and match in the 403b. Look into a Roth also, they make good emergency funds too as contributions can be withdrawn without penalty. I'm not very aggressive with Int'l and would s...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best source for simple market news?
Replies: 26
Views: 2133

Re: Best source for simple market news?

Alert Messaging at Vanguard.com (R)

Log on >> My Accounts >> Account maintenance >> Stock & ETF alerts.
by patrick013
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?
Replies: 17
Views: 1348

Re: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?

If I view a dividend of say $3 spun off of a $100 investment, ... then your investment is now 97$ worth and you have 3$ in your hands on which you have to pay tax. There is a major difference between dividends from stocks and interest from a bond. - the interest of a bond comes from outside the bon...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?
Replies: 17
Views: 1348

Re: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?

should I go with a US high dividend yield etf like SCHD? Upside? Downside? Am I crazy? If you do put it in a Roth with funds like REIT's and after when interest rates have peaked . My fav is ticker SPYD BTW. What does that mean? Like a SPIA annuity better return can be expected when rates are high ...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?
Replies: 17
Views: 1348

Re: High Yield Dividend ETF or not?

JoeMontana16 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:25 pm

should I go with a US high dividend yield etf like SCHD?

Upside?
Downside?
Am I crazy?
If you do put it in a Roth with funds like REIT's and after when interest
rates have peaked. My fav is ticker SPYD BTW.
by patrick013
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

My recollection is that investors who bought long bonds in many of the pre-Volker years, got crushed in real terms, compared to the investor who stayed short. Can anyone clarify this? Sure they got crushed and were very unhappy. If they watched the Fed I'm sure there were signals rates would rise t...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

Long term investors who hold bonds should hold long term bonds. Right now conditions are more favorable for shorter term maturities but will become more favorable for longer term maturities at a later date. End result is a better entry point, more profits, and minimized duration loss. A better over...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

Long term investors who hold bonds should hold long term bonds. Right now conditions are more favorable for shorter term maturities but will become more favorable for longer term maturities at a later date. End result is a better entry point, more profits, and minimized duration loss. A better over...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

Although I will stick with short term bonds, I do thank you. Your explanation is highly convincing. If the Fed tentative policy statement becomes reality without interruption a 3 year CD going into ticker BLV at maturity would make me smile as well. No duration risk, TRSY10 supposed to be over 4% t...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Ladder Managed Account
Replies: 31
Views: 1633

Re: Bond Ladder Managed Account

I know I could create and maintain my own bond ladder, but I'm not confident that I have the time and knowledge to do it well. Up until now, I swore I would never open a managed account, but now may be the time to do it. Granted the word "imminent" isn't being used in Fed Policy Statements but rath...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:55 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:10 pm
@Livesoft
...
Sorry, I don't know what you are writing about, but you can pm me to explain if you wish.
Don't worry about it, it's just a wait and see situation.
by patrick013
Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

@Livesoft

You're right the trend is only 50% sure but it has
to be a secular trend. A monthly trend is a casino
and that has to done by spread analysis. Would
you buy with a 2% spread or sell with a 2% spread ?
:)
by patrick013
Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond
Replies: 57
Views: 5185

Re: Short versus Intermediate Term Bond

Vanguard shows that the Short Term Bond ETF (BSV) has an estimated YTM of 2.8 years and a duration of 2.7 years, while the Intermediate Term Bond ETF (BIV) has an estimated YTM of 3.4% but a duration of 6.4 years. Given thyat it is a given that the Fed will continue increasing short term rates, why...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1599

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

The long term rates are supposed to be in a secular trend upward barring complete market collapse. The longer that occurs the more influence liquidity preference will have. The longer the FFR stays higher the more influence liquidity preference will have. Otherwise anything could happen. Spreads of ...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1288

Re: Flat real yield curve

Term premiums are supposed to make buyers aware, like why should I give up my money longer without getting paid for it. Sellers might just be saying why should I lower bond prices for base rate (FFR) spreads that haven't happened yet, especially when demand remains high. It will probably get worse w...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 114
Views: 7151

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

https://image.ibb.co/kc73cT/2fundrecession.png Most people hold TRSY's for market crashes. In a 50-50 portfolio when stocks really crash the TRSY's normally increase in value as a flight to quality starts to occur. For other time periods, other than when crashes are expected, a blend of TRSY and Co...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1840

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

"......gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation...near 2%......" So last reports indicate a surprising 10% increase in 2nd quarter earnings, and unemployment very...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1840

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

Here's what the boss has been doing, no LT at all. Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds Exactly what I would do. If or when rates peak the shorter durations would look good as the longest durations. If the economy collapses for a year rates would drop some then, except corporates which may rise...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 46
Views: 4368

Re: MBA Options

What was your GMAT score? Less than 500. But I took 4 years of math in high school so it doesn't take me all day to learn something. Some people have extraordinary high score so bless them. So I got into an above average local in the city MBA program with a full corporate tuition reimbursement. I d...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 46
Views: 4368

Re: MBA Options

nickjoy wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:48 am
But I will look into more and other certs and licenses.
Also MBA is not your only choice. There is an MPA-Master of Public
Administration and MHA-Master of Hospital Administration that
could fit better with your future objectives.