Search found 1837 matches

by patrick013
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 18
Views: 1041

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond me. There was a saying in school about regressions. Something like with one factor you can draw a line, with two you can draw a curve ... with four you can draw an elephant and with fi...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 18
Views: 1041

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Well it's interesting how they went from OLS to a 5 factor
system. How they got the fitted line so close is beyond
me.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 18
Views: 1041

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

There's several articles every month but they all point to similar observations depending of who has written them. Federal Debt held by the public should rise to 90% of GDP. Increased demand will keeps spreads down to 1% for TRSY 10 for the foreseeable future. FFR will rise peaking in several years....
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4207

Re: Bogle has a forecast...

I think Jack also mentioned he expects a 2% decrease in valuation. When you take that into consideration you are looking at 2% real not 4%. Based on 10 year TRSY interest rates vs 500 earnings yield very possible. PE's will lower if interest rates spike to help the economy. A BBB rated yield compar...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 682

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

However, it is almost proverbial that stocks in the countries with the fastest-growing GDPs have not consistently yielded the highest returns. In fact there's almost no correlation. Correlation Coefficients, using the observations 1950 - 2016 US Stocks : Price - 1.00 GNP - .956 GDP - .956 EPS - .94...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2257

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

My view is my cornerstone investment is the 500 (or TSM) that has a beta risk of 1 or very close to 1. To be more aggressive I could invest in a small cap fund which would have a beta about 1.10 adding volatility to the entire portfolio. An older investor would add to the 500 a telecom fund perhaps ...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 521

Re: Beta and the Market

If you really want to use beta to calc your portfolio volatility
stockrover.com has a 3 year beta which is calc'd using the
S&P 500 index. Nice to be consistent with all the calc's and
have the number available then.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 521

Re: Beta and the Market

According to the advisor's manual the S&P 500 is the general US equity index and the LC index. I see no reason why an All Company World Index should be used to calc beta's for an US investor like Yahoo and Morningstar are doing. The beta calc's are very different then. Supposed to calc beta's accord...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1405

Re: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account

I've asked my wife to contact their benefits department about lump sum after tax contributions to her 401K. Looking at the plan literature it appears to me that they only accept payroll contributions. Never hurts to ask but it's very common to accept payroll contributions only. Some allow Roth conv...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1405

Re: Looking for advice as to how to invest in a taxable account

Contributions New annual Contributions $18000 401k – pre-tax payroll deduction $9000 401K as a company match $6000 into 401K as an after-tax contribution When your estimate of marginal tax rate in retirement is less than your marginal tax rate when working pre-tax or traditional is desirable, other...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?
Replies: 16
Views: 1469

Re: “Flight to Quality:” the old way of thinking?

There's always going to be some extra movement when stocks go down. Logically demand is greater for bonds then. So, generally you can follow the money : - when earnings go up bonds go down as money moves to stocks - when earnings go down bonds go up as money moves from stocks Some movements cancel e...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4207

Re: Bogle has a forecast...

I think Bogle's formulation quite pragmatic. So we hear all day long about high valuations, the 500 at 3000, interest rates spiking..... All journalism to sell some newsletter. https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/forecastthru20181.png Here we have the 500 priced at small earnings grow...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 601

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

My Firefox add-on stopped working so I switched to stockrover.com Not really a spreadsheet but does the job. Has a few extra features like index databases, watchlist, and whatnot. Here's a report I made. https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/stockrover.png Some people are getting Google...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1/n Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1327

Re: 1/n Portfolio

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/2017beta2revised.png I'd go with a 2 fund portfolio anytime but this hypothetical has some added insights. Satisfied with Intl exposure in TSM plus an EM index. More AA to mid and small cap. Small REIT tilt, and safety in ST bonds and Utilities. Ex...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

What problem does that solve? Dividend yield adds no explanatory power to the three factor model - the intercepts are essentially zero when using the three-factor model to explain returns of stocks sorted by dividend yield. In other words, there is no additional 'dividend premium' - the returns of ...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

To solve the problem apart from multi-decade return tabulations Fama and French should include dividends as a separate and additional factor. Then we could read factor studies that highlight alpha's, dividend premium, size premium, value premium, for small, mid, and large cap stocks. Alot of people...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

To solve the problem apart from multi-decade return tabulations Fama and French should include dividends as a separate and additional factor. Then we could read factor studies that highlight alpha's, dividend premium, size premium, value premium, for small, mid, and large cap stocks. Alot of people...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

To solve the problem apart from multi-decade return tabulations Fama and French should include dividends as a separate and additional factor. Then we could read factor studies that highlight alpha's, dividend premium, size premium, value premium, for small, mid, and large cap stocks. Alot of people ...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation

I rebalanced to a 3 fund lazy portfolio. HELOC and 401k loans will be paid off in two years. Total savings will step up from 100k this year to 140k in two years. Anticipate that with a 4% return, by the time we retire we hope to have at least a $10m portfolio, assuming 200k withdrawal per year (wit...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Is it your impression that we are not aware of why people prefer dividends? On the contrary it seems most people here are quite understanding, but want to keep repeating that no matter how tempting it is to submit to this behavioral error, it remains one. Why are you acting as a Devils advocate for...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 136
Views: 12341

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

Well realistically your approach seems well thought out. Common crashes last a year but secular downtrends could last 5-10 even 20 years. I always remember growth is not infinite, it may stop. There will always be a core economy but decade after decade of growth may not be possible. We have little p...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 242
Views: 19608

Re: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images ... krover.png

Here's a hypothetical portfolio I did on stockrover.com with user made
report. Faster than GoogleSheets and more features. So far so good.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the most "interesting" job in corporate finance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1906

Re: What's the most "interesting" job in corporate finance?

I was just wondering if there's an area of corporate finance that tends to be more interesting? FP&A seems to get very dry. Sounds like doing pro-forma budgets all the time. But that's how you learn the business. Managerial Finance does alot more than that. Sounds like you have a couple years of au...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/div1table2.png Opinions aren't facts, bad research isn't facts, here's some facts. People on Morningstar write articles all the time wondering why VYM doesn't beat the 500. Because the 50 or 100 stocks needed in a dividend index aren't market cap w...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12954

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

You could make a whole portfolio out of ticker SPHD - PowerShares
S&P 500® High Dividend Low Volatility Portfolio. Return, beta, etc.
backed up by 3 nationally prominent well respected researchers.
Must be some kind of marketing bias. Case closed as far as I am
concerned. :)
by patrick013
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1961

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

When I went to school there were 2 kinds of risk. Volatility then best described as uncertainty and the risk of total loss determined by stochastic or subjective reasoning. Low volatility assets should have surer outcomes using that mindset. Also, all the metrics were based on price fluctuations wit...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 1961

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

I am trying to understand the relationship between volatility and risk as it pertains to options for different investment allocations. Well you can have low volatility and higher returns if the volatility is on the upside. Low volatility stocks crash also. I think growth excels in a new business cy...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 242
Views: 19608

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

Both my Firefox add-ons stopped working, yup, Yahoo feeds. Going to try this I think. Google Sheets Add-on | Intrinio These are supposed to work with SMF 9.33 except the Yahoo one of course, which is the best one. SMF-Extension/examples at master · dhocker/SMF-Extension · GitHub Hate to have to use ...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2621

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images ... 7beta2.png

Here's some figures I threw together. Beta's are 5 year, guesstimates
are based on 10 year returns give or take based on my viewpoint. So,
a multiple fund portfolio is displayed. They all hover around 6% today.
by patrick013
Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2621

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Is there a way one can break up the total market (either domestic, and/or international) into sectors that have the lowest correlation to the broad markets, and you overweight those particular sectors? Easier said than done, although beta is a little different than correlation of course. Low beta s...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation

It is traditional 401k, thanks for the feedback! If your estimate of your retirement marginal tax rate is less than your accumulation marginal tax bracket then pre-tax or traditional is desirable. Backdoor Roth: A Complete How-To Mega Backdoor Roth: Convert Within Plan or Out to Roth IRA? If you wo...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2621

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

It seems to me that many of the comments are ignoring the forest from the trees. The specific asset classes are irrelevant. The time frame is irrelevant. What is relevant is the big picture. The big picture is that combining sources of return with less than perfectly correlated behavior improves po...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Crash Defensive Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 3570

Re: Market Crash Defensive Portfolio

RockyBalboaWin wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:22 pm

Do you think it would be a good defensive portfolio in case of a market crash?
As far as everday market volatility a low beta portfolio would help.
In a market crash I'd want plenty of TRSY's, even 50%, with intermediate
terms, even some long term. :)
by patrick013
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 38
Views: 2621

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Aren't there 10 sectors, or asset classes, or at least industries. Commodities
have value but not much earning power so not really investment grade IMO.
Seasonality and high inflation were relevant to their past successes.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation

justcruisin wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:33 pm
It is traditional 401k, thanks for the feedback!
If your estimate of your retirement marginal tax rate is less
than your accumulation marginal tax bracket then pre-tax or
traditional is desirable.
by patrick013
Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Portfolio Critique/Asset Allocation

Here's the funds I'd use : Schwab Mngd Ret Trust 2050 Cl III (SM350) (0.54) Schwab International Index (SWISX) (0.06) and for the IRA, the Schwab S&P 500 Index (SWPPX) (0.03) The other funds/stocks won't provide the risk/reward and diversification needed and have ER's very high. Also, most people in...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bond Ladder
Replies: 7
Views: 504

Re: Muni Bond Ladder

Did you read Swedroe's bond book ? My only bond strategy
right now is to have CD's mature when the FFR might peak.
by patrick013
Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Bond Funds and Diversification

BSV is the current SEC Yield and VTI and VPU are the average annual returns for the past 10 years, all from the VG website. They don't seem excessive or too low as an estimate. Beta's for 5 years I took from the Morningstar website but I see where VG has 36 month beta tucked into the corner. Why ? ...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 2974

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

Well I really don't think it's the financial statements fault... US GAAP uses lower of cost or market and should continue to do so and the few instances where it deviates it does so on a consistent basis across all companies so every basis for everybody has the same thing. If it was up to me I would...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Bond Funds and Diversification

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images ... 173051.png In this graphic how did you determine the "expected" return? BSV is the current SEC Yield and VTI and VPU are the average annual returns for the past 10 years, all from the VG website. They don't seem excessive or too low as an estimate. Beta's...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Bond Funds and Diversification

https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/screen10282017173051.png Using a combination of a defensive fund and bonds you can reduce volatility in terms of beta quite well without reducing return greatly. VPU took a big hit in 2008 but recovered nicely. The only way I can see to reduce risk ...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle has a forecast...
Replies: 19
Views: 4207

Bogle has a forecast...

Bogle's 'Reasonable Expectations...

I think bonds will return more eventually however.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2416

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Because 10,000 is the number used, it isn't clear whether you have addressed the tax drag issue. E.g., someone paying 25% could put the full pre-tax $10K into traditional, or put $7500 into Roth. If the withdrawal tax rate is also 25%, the results will be identical either way. You keep doing the wr...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2416

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

Might be worth perusing maxing out your retirement accounts for a discussion about the tax drag of the taxable "side account." Whoever wrote that Wiki gets a D- for presentation skills. No thanks. Peruse my prior message if you would please. Because 10,000 is the number used, it isn't clear whether...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2416

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

FiveK wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:12 pm
Might be worth perusing maxing out your retirement accounts for a discussion about the tax drag of the taxable "side account."
Whoever wrote that Wiki gets a D- for presentation skills. No thanks.
Peruse my prior message if you would please.
by patrick013
Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2416

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

But let's look at from the amount of earnings you are able to devote to savings: If it is $18k and $18k goes into Trad 401k - no tax due. If that $18k is going to be used for the Roth 401k, then you must hold back the tax from the Roth and you have less in the Roth but unless you are assuming some ...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice needed: Savings & investment strategy
Replies: 3
Views: 389

Re: Advice needed: Savings & investment strategy

If your estimate of your retirement marginal tax rate is less than your accumulation marginal tax bracket then pre-tax is desirable for future investments. Most 401k's have Roth and traditional account options. Have you explored the backdoor ? Backdoor Roth: A Complete How-To Mega Backdoor Roth: Con...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Consultant/Strategists
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: Tax Consultant/Strategists

The Boglehead Wiki is quite resourceful -

Outline of tax considerations for investors - Bogleheads

I usually go to HR Block, they have an advanced preparation service which
will do consulting.
by patrick013
Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?
Replies: 33
Views: 6271

Re: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?

OP's question about hacking is the only one that really worries me much. Best security I've seen is a little plastic device given to the account holder only. It gives a password when you log in, a different password every time sync'd with the broker's computer. Battery powered. Only breached once a...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans
Replies: 46
Views: 2416

Re: Calculator - pretax vs aftertax plans

If your estimate of your retirement marginal tax rate is less
than your accumulation marginal tax bracket then pre-tax is
desirable.