Search found 1945 matches

by patrick013
Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham
Replies: 43
Views: 4034

Re: 50/50 AA recommended by Benjamin Graham

Image
Here's a low beta creation. Low enough to provide liquidity at a good
price and an equal tilt to SC to provide a bit more return. For an old
portfolio going into retirement doesn't look too bad. Prices today are
so high.
by patrick013
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 28
Views: 1503

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

When information is imperfect the market acts on guesses, estimates, forecasts, sometimes disbelief. So quality of information can become very important. Quality of earnings for example refers to accuracy of earnings forecasts. When information is perfect, the actual numbers are posted to the public...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investment?
Replies: 7
Views: 613

Re: Bond investment?

When bonds are expected to have higher interest rates lower bond maturities, and when bonds are expected to have lower interest rates lengthen bond maturities. So when the long term trend has that expectation I'm following this proverb. The trend will be your friend. A good bond AA for the foreseeab...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Dividend Stocks as bond substitute?
Replies: 32
Views: 2039

Re: High dividend stocks as bond substitute?

I think the key thing would be to buy companies which have a very good chance of surviving the coming years of disruption. A lot of high dividend king stocks have been a sensible investment for the past 100 years. But that doesn't mean they will be safe for the next hundred... https://myphotos.mypc...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 384

Re: bond portfolio

I think you should stay with ticker VCIT for long term investment
grade corp bond holdings in the 5-10 year range. Largest holding
is less than 1%, distribution yield over 3.25%, over 1700 bonds
for diversification. Doesn't get any better.
by patrick013
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2462

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

VG Interm Muni only has a cash yield of 2.73% so reinvestment options aren't exactly super as the rates keep rising. Have to see what happens either way. Hope the above helps somewhat. Patrick013: I don't know how to get a good estimate of cash flow if I were to convert the individual bonds into a ...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2462

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

LT Muni's have had some volatility this year but not too bad. Better than last year. What are the premiums on these bonds ? What would be your cap gain ? The highest premiums are good sales candidates. Can you sell each bond without a cap loss ? So sell a portion of them then. If we guess LT Muni's...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2462

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

Part of me wants to keep the individual bonds the way they are and if they are called early (average call date of all of them is around 2022-23) I will move the money into either a bond fund or stocks depending if stocks are down at the time. If I convert them to a taxable bond fund then I can at l...
by patrick013
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Money Market Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 837

Re: Muni Money Market Fund

kenoryan wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:02 pm
So I’m asking for your opinion on this Muni Money Market fund. Is it as safe as, or safer than, the regular money market fund?
I'd get the Muni MMF at Vanguard. It has 100% mig-1 securities
I believe which is the highest rating for those. Low fee etc..
by patrick013
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing for a very long retirement?
Replies: 35
Views: 2462

Re: Bond investing for a very long retirement?

For me the hangup really is the bonds...I feel comfortable which stock index funds I am invested in. There are so many different angles as to how I should approach the bonds. The last I read Bogle had bonds in 50% ST and 50% IT. LT bonds have a high duration so that is probably the most important p...
by patrick013
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to build a bond ladder?
Replies: 14
Views: 862

Re: How to build a bond ladder?

I'd guess they target buys towards the peak of the steepest part of the yield curve at the time, where the yield drops the most/quickest (all else being equal the price rises the most/quickest). That all moves around over time. I don't know if I'd buy BLV at price drops as rate increases still appe...
by patrick013
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to build a bond ladder?
Replies: 14
Views: 862

Re: How to build a bond ladder?

Is there an advantage of building a muni-bond ladder, holding all bonds to maturity, and reinvesting when they mature? The interest rates would average out over time and the dividends could be collected and turn into new bonds to build in the ladder over time. Is this a good strategy or does everyo...
by patrick013
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....
Replies: 18
Views: 1145

Re: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....

...and placing the money in a mixture of CD's and cash (Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund). Why? Because of predicted interest rate hikes in 2018 that may further lower the price/share of this fund. People often say "baked into the prices" but it's amazing how the prices jump the week before the rat...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 5679

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

From yesterday’s WSJ.. The essence of the article in quotations. Well bull or bear that's the morning paper, shock journalism either way. Rising rates are bad for bonds and high prices are bad for stocks. Reading one analyst - he sees the FFR at 3 but then retreating to 2 in the next few years. He ...
by patrick013
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4242

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Our combined portfolios consist of a 50/50 mix of equities and high quality corporate bonds (primarily Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund). As the equity bull market gets longer in the tooth we have been contemplating switching our fixed income allocation to Treasuries. Between a TRSY...
by patrick013
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?
Replies: 16
Views: 819

Re: Why bother with corporate bond funds instead of just U.S. Treasuries + Stock Index Fund/ETF?

Can anyone explain to me whether it makes sense to hold bond funds over treasuries + high stock AA? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=hsnc It's easy to see the credit or risk premium between TRSY and Baa. These are all 15-20 year yields with the Prime starting to rise, and corporate...
by patrick013
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9713

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

This isn't exactly CAPE but assuming that from inflationary growth in profits and increased earnings from the new tax laws the 500 earnings may touch 125 this year or shortly thereafter using the most reasonable estimates. As interest rates rise but PE's stay high as they usually do for some time be...
by patrick013
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Guidance
Replies: 8
Views: 653

Re: Portfolio Guidance

Patrick 013 - Thank you for your response. I will do the sort by ER and see where that takes us. By online tax program, do you mean something like TurboTax? I apologize for not getting back to you earlier - I didn't understand that the topic had been approved and that you all were responding. Yes T...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me with VG Advisory's Recommendaitons
Replies: 27
Views: 2171

Re: Please help me with VG Advisory's Recommendaitons

My first advised portfolio was the 500 and a 5 year cd ladder. I might add 10-15% for emerging markets stocks only. Most VG funds have several billion dollars in them so advising individual investors to buy a bunch of funds, especially initial investors can be confusing. Have you read the new Bogleh...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 142
Views: 8364

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

3000.00



not a penny more
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice needed: Savings & investment strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 687

Re: Advice needed: Savings & investment strategy

Thanks patrick013. I didn't know about backdoor and mega backdoor Roths! I am looking into them to see if I can convert some of my funds that way! I really appreciate the tip and the links. You're still young so use them links if you can. Future investments at least. Roth conversions are good if do...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

If the yield on 2 consecutive 2 year bonds (estimated) was
higher than the yield on a 5 year bond we'd have an invert
for awhile.
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 3077

Re: How Many Stocks Are Really Needed in Index Funds?

You could have 500 stocks per general market index. Large, medium, and small cap. The S&P 1500 composite index is pretty close to that. I like having a separate index investment for each, large, medium, and small caps. The risk of letting in less than excellent companies is greater when over 500 sto...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review - need help prioritizing rebalancing targets on mostly taxable accts
Replies: 1
Views: 147

Re: Portfolio review - need help prioritizing rebalancing targets on mostly taxable accts

Tax loss harvesting - Bogleheads Read the above. There are good chances of a market correction in 2018. You could TLH and pay minimal if any taxes and just limit your accounts to 3-5 funds. Pick the 5 general index funds you want the most and sell and buy at the market correction low. Barron's usua...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 5142

Re: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?

Like all first year Finance students we have to sit thru CAPM and learn concepts that aren't really that pragmatic except as concepts. The price beta can be used to limit volatility. This program, within constraints, was set to limit beta to .60 and max return. This is what it returned. Utilities mi...
by patrick013
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Standard Deviation
Replies: 11
Views: 789

Re: Standard Deviation

Most standard deviations I've seen, Investopedia for example,
come from annual total return, for at least 5 years. Beta is
calc'd for 5 year daily price movement. It really should be
standardized but apparently isn't.
by patrick013
Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term Fund for 2018: Vanguard Prime Money Market or Short Term Investment Grade
Replies: 6
Views: 702

Re: Short Term Fund for 2018: Vanguard Prime Money Market or Short Term Investment Grade

Interest rates are poised to rise in 2018, so am trying to decided between these. Vanguard Short Term Bond performed worse than both of the other funds in 2017. Seeing that rates are rising with a 3% FFR more likely than not it is very possible two 3 year bonds would yield more than one 6 year bond...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ever drink Chartreuse?
Replies: 16
Views: 1519

Re: Ever drink Chartreuse?

I never had a drink but it reminds me of Vermouth
for some reason.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1959

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) says that the only measure of risk that matters in explaining average returns of any equity portfolio is its sensitivity to market volatility i.e. Beta. However, as research has shown, sensitivity to market volatility (beta) is not the only risk that matters...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ever drink Chartreuse?
Replies: 16
Views: 1519

Re: Ever drink Chartreuse?

The last I heard it was the invention of Benedictine monks or nuns.

What end result don't know.
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1959

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

If I had a separate SCV fund and put it into a model of 6 index factors: LCG, LCV, MCG, MCV, SCG, SCV plus their multi-decade returns on the side for reference the SCV fund should have the highest statistical significance with the SCV index factor. Putting the SCV fund into a single factor model wit...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2026

Re: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?

with so many moving parts and not clear how much a future marginal tax rate might differ from the current (no clear tax benefit) it seems to me more prudent maybe to take a more hands off approach. Maybe better to wait another year and do some more tax research than trying to micromanage?? My two c...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predictions for 2018 Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 1029

Re: Predictions for 2018 Investments

I know nobody has a crystal ball and can predict the future, but what are your thoughts for 2018? From what I've been reading my thoughts are: - Domestic equities up some, but much less than 2017 and with more volatility. Bear market unlikely to be called in 2017, but a market peak & correction may...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2026

Re: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?

When looking at pre and post retirement tax rates the decision is fairly easy. On that basis the problems arise that are related to actually estimating the tax rate, the 5 year rule, and whether the tax on conversion is paid from the tIRA, the Roth, or from a taxable MMF. The general concept is stil...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2026

Re: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?

Is this a good starting point for an estimate? What other factors do folks use to evaluate that proposition? By the time we reach retirement (12 years) our mortage will be paid off so we could probably live fine of the RMDs (~50K) plus social security (~30K) minus federal & state taxes. Taxes will ...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2026

Re: Roth Conversion - Break Even Calculation - How do you do it?

Is this a good starting point for an estimate? What other factors do folks use to evaluate that proposition? By the time we reach retirement (12 years) our mortage will be paid off so we could probably live fine of the RMDs (~50K) plus social security (~30K) minus federal & state taxes. Taxes will ...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?
Replies: 20
Views: 2255

Re: Will PE ratios decrease due to lower taxes?

Optimism due to higher EPS due to lower taxes could increase PE or at least keep index PE high perhaps even 30. Rising interest rates could put pressure on PE perhaps 1 point per year so PE of 20 in several or more years is somewhat possible. The optimists that see EPS of 145 coming I just don't add...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

This graph shows 3 recessions preceded by yield curve inversion. Note this is clearly not the only variable but is it coincidence that recessions followed some months later? Yield curve inversion preceded the 1930 depression. https://s9.postimg.org/mky7akwkf/spread_and_fed_funds_rate.jpg . Lower gr...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2545

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

A: The yield curve inverts when bond investors expect short-term interest rates to fall. They are willing to hold long-term bonds, despite the lower current yield, because they are locking in the yield.[/i] That's the value of perfect information. Are they certain. No guessing allowed. So the inter...
by patrick013
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13071

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

They're worth a tilt, they look good in the total return column. Research - High Dividend They talk about low volatility index, but i see that the top holding stock is IRON MOUNTAIN. It seems to be a high volatile stock.. Well the 3 year beta for SPHD is .81, the 5 year beta for IRM is .87 so it mu...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13071

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

They're worth a tilt, they look good in the total return column. Research - High Dividend They talk about low volatility index, but i see that the top holding stock is IRON MOUNTAIN. It seems to be a high volatile stock.. Well the 3 year beta for SPHD is .81, the 5 year beta for IRM is .87 so it mu...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates
Replies: 9
Views: 667

Re: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates

triceratop wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:08 pm


You mean like this?

Image

Comparing the Prime to Baa yields shows some wide variations.
Right now Baa looks like it's dived lower than the Prime. Better to
have something to look at than not.
Image
by patrick013
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates
Replies: 9
Views: 667

Re: Corporate Bonds with high interest rates

Yes, bond prices change every day, although usually less dramatically than stock prices do. To step back and take a broader look, corporate credit spreads (the additional yield you get for taking the risk of investing in corporate bonds vs. treasuries) is quite low right now: https://fred.stlouisfe...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quitting while ahead? Need help properly diversifying.
Replies: 17
Views: 1316

Re: Quitting while ahead? Need help properly diversifying.

Why have stocks at all, especially international. There's alot of risk in Intl which cannot be quantified. Currency, smallish economies, negative correlations and offsetting returns within the index, etc.. Perhaps 1 year of income in Total Stock Market to keep invested and some hedge on inflation an...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Delete
Replies: 4
Views: 897

Re: Looking for Advice

Self employed - have you looked into the options in various plans ?

Designated Roth401k, SEP IRA, Simple IRA, or Solo401k.

Outline of employer provided retirement plans

Should be an additional plan to use which much higher contributions.
by patrick013
Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?
Replies: 9
Views: 597

Re: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?

Using stat figures only is bound to result in an incomplete model. Some concern needs to be given for macro, fundamental, and technical analysis. So how one does that is up to one's own creativity. Estimating the 500 isn't that hard as info is plentiful. But saying EM is great there's so much negat...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?
Replies: 9
Views: 597

Re: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?

Using stat figures only is bound to result in an incomplete model. Some concern needs to be given for macro, fundamental, and technical analysis. So how one does that is up to one's own creativity. Estimating the 500 isn't that hard as info is plentiful. But saying EM is great there's so much negati...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4845

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

((1.12*.92*1.02)(1/3) -1 is 1.67%, which is correct for the CAGR. This is the geometric mean of the growth ratios with a return extracted by subtracting one and expressing the result as a percent. Well it's the one to use for Finance whatever you want to call it. It was simply called geometric mean...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 4845

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

((1.12*.92*1.02)(1/3) -1 is 1.67%, which is correct for the CAGR. This is the geometric mean of the growth ratios with a return extracted by subtracting one and expressing the result as a percent. Well it's the one to use for Finance whatever you want to call it. It was simply called geometric mean...