Search found 2247 matches

by patrick013
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 615

Re: Flat real yield curve

Term premiums are supposed to make buyers aware, like why should I give up my money longer without getting paid for it. Sellers might just be saying why should I lower bond prices for base rate (FFR) spreads that haven't happened yet, especially when demand remains high. It will probably get worse w...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 42
Views: 2140

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

https://image.ibb.co/kc73cT/2fundrecession.png Most people hold TRSY's for market crashes. In a 50-50 portfolio when stocks really crash the TRSY's normally increase in value as a flight to quality starts to occur. For other time periods, other than when crashes are expected, a blend of TRSY and Co...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1622

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

"......gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation...near 2%......" So last reports indicate a surprising 10% increase in 2nd quarter earnings, and unemployment very...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1622

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

Here's what the boss has been doing, no LT at all. Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds Exactly what I would do. If or when rates peak the shorter durations would look good as the longest durations. If the economy collapses for a year rates would drop some then, except corporates which may rise...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 44
Views: 3966

Re: MBA Options

What was your GMAT score? Less than 500. But I took 4 years of math in high school so it doesn't take me all day to learn something. Some people have extraordinary high score so bless them. So I got into an above average local in the city MBA program with a full corporate tuition reimbursement. I d...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 44
Views: 3966

Re: MBA Options

nickjoy wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:48 am
But I will look into more and other certs and licenses.
Also MBA is not your only choice. There is an MPA-Master of Public
Administration and MHA-Master of Hospital Administration that
could fit better with your future objectives.
by patrick013
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transitioning from bond funds as retirement approaches?...
Replies: 6
Views: 911

Re: Transitioning from bond funds as retirement approaches?...

Thank you for your suggestions. My concern is not the spending, it is the correct apportionment between the 3 vehicles as time goes on... Vanguard Prime (duration of zero) CDs (2 or 3 year) VFIDX and VBTLX (50/50... duration of 5.82 yrs) I'm looking to use these three to get the benefit of the inte...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 1053

Re: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable

My question is whether that difference in risk is enough to outweigh the tax advantage. If there is a return advantage after tax the added risk is mitigated by broad diversification. Most of those muni funds own thousands and thousands of bonds. So being investment grade the risk of default there i...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund
Replies: 4
Views: 359

Re: SEC yield vs YTD bond fund

Read about duration. The bond fund has some NAV decrease due to rising rates. The fund will receive the SEC yield at the duration term approximately and compound a little more due to rising rates for reinvestment. But the NAV will fluctuate until the rates become more constant. A bank account or CD ...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1045

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

The estimated auction rates are posted in Barron's
every week based on the bids rec'd so far for that term,
yield, and auction date. Might help to decide if one
wanted to jump into the auction or not.
by patrick013
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transitioning from bond funds as retirement approaches?...
Replies: 6
Views: 911

Re: Transitioning from bond funds as retirement approaches?...

Here's some old thoughts. If you were to spend your bond funds first, your portfolio would be less diversified and at the mercy of bear markets in stocks. If you spend your stock funds first, your bond fund income may not keep up with your needs or provide returns over inflation. Withdrawing investm...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5055

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Another related calculation. Say we expect returns to revert to a mean, statistically we could use a lower mean. Depending on how many decades get into the sample mean calculation the low end of a 95% confidence interval can go from around 5% to 8% nominal. All estimates appear to be on the low side...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the USA domestic investor ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1101

Re: Where is the USA domestic investor ?

what proportion of the business done by (say) S&P 500 companies is entirely domestic USA ? Or are they really international companies ? I will happily trust regular contributors here with better numbers than me but I am fairly confident that around half or more of the S&P 500's business is internat...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2520

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

But I suspect that if there was a reliable way to harvest some additional bounty from a bond buying and selling algorithm it would already be known about and priced in. You could try selecting a discount bond for the original purchase. For longer maturities it will produce more gain than a premium ...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing bonds with different maturities
Replies: 6
Views: 482

Re: Comparing bonds with different maturities

Sounds like old theory to me. In my mind more like traders saying why should I increase yields via lower sales prices for changes in the base rate FFR which haven't occurred yet. Well we'll see if neutral reactions occur or not to overall economic conditions. Weighted long term still doesn't seem su...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1693

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Of course I've read every one of the articles I cite, and a hundred more. I agree stats can be a fruitcake. What a bunch of window dressing. The moments of the sample mean I take as-is but my MLS's and LAD's I should be a little more fussy. The only confidence interval that matters to me. Are estim...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing bonds with different maturities
Replies: 6
Views: 482

Re: Comparing bonds with different maturities

If investment return is greater than mortgage interest expense your invest is still viable. Otherwise buy a smaller house I guess. If term premiums and credit premiums are not at their mean averages or above then buyers have to be selective. Or just pick a short term fund and ride it out. Or CD's et...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA Options
Replies: 44
Views: 3966

Re: MBA Options

It's always nice having BS-Engineering/MBA or BS-Accounting/MBA-Finance people in the corporate office to compete with. Or if you already had a business BS degree get a 2nd BS degree in Finance. A couple Finance courses, Business Statistics, and Linear Solutions course is all it should take. Not onl...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8541

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Image

There'll be a time to go long term tho we may never see these
rates again. Inflation ? I keep thinking what if gas was $5-$6
per gallon. That would certainly spike the inflation rate.

MHO
by patrick013
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 47
Views: 4135

Re: yield curve inversion

The rate for shorter terms may increase 1% and longer terms may increase only .5% or even invert. Sellers might not sell if req'd to raise yields based on a base rate change that just hasn't happened yet. Spiking rates can slow business activity. I guess it's an experiment if raising rates slowly wi...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 47
Views: 4135

Re: yield curve inversion

To buy or sell anything you need the buyer and seller to agree on the price. The market may think the rate increases are short lived. Will the FFR 5 years from now be 1% or 3%. If 1% why sell bonds with a 3% YTM ? If 3% buyers may demand TRSY 10 at 4% or higher, or just not buy. The greater the perc...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1693

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

There's such a thing as too much statistics. Distributions have their moments whether they are normal or not. Regressions have a confidence interval regardless of t-stats. Lengthy studies may prove nothing or be eternal models. How many dissertations are packed away never to be looked at again, only...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2249

Re: bonds or bond funds?

Not sure what you mean by "target dating". My point is, a bond fund is an aggregation of individual bonds, so even though there is risk of principal loss in the short term, each individual bond within the fund does not lose principal. Therefore, over time, the expected return of a bond fund vs regu...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1693

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Stat models are as good as they can be used for decision making. Correlations are still correlations and some models autocorrelate on purpose. If the model works why dismiss it based on these tests or whatever. Most data is not normal but still gives some idea of range and total return and still giv...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 11976

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

It's interesting that GDP is growing at 2% but the early reports of
500 earnings looks slightly negative. That's after the tax benefit
of the new tax law. So have to wait and see how that cycle turns
out.
by patrick013
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2249

Re: bonds or bond funds?

Why do you think individual bonds can't lose value but buckets of individual bonds can? My understanding is that if you hold them to maturity, you get back the principal plus interest. Correct. But the bond fund will also hold an index of individual bonds to maturity. It never loses money on any in...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2249

Re: bonds or bond funds?

Looking at a 12 year Farm Credit Bond (no state tax). Coupon 4% at par. If 5% I'd grab it in an instant. If I buy rate increases could push future issuances to yield 5%. Too soon right now. If markets correct or crash yields would likely fall and I'd be sitting good for awhile collecting the 4% with...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5373

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

Frequently Barron's publishes a list of the top 100 Advisors by state. Some take accounts of 1M or more others less. Then the top Advisors get to journalize a bit about their best investment strategies. All the best strategies are slightly different and very different concerning specific strategies....
by patrick013
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8541

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Also, a lot of investors would prefer to hold a range of maturities and not make changes based on trying to figure out what is expected of interest rates. Well it's not hard. Choices between short and long term. Being a Fed watcher sometimes you get forecasts and other times you get policy statemen...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8541

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

After asking my plan administer about adding the Vanguard Total Bond Fund I received the following response..."I would highly recommend against adding a bond index fund to the plan in a rising interest rate environment. While I am a big fan of index funds and one is offered in every other asset cla...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7065

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down 20% I don't know. No info. Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I ever have the time for ...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7065

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down 20% I don't know. No info. Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I ever have the time for it.
by patrick013
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8541

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

If the yield curve stays flat that will help the longer term bonds.
May not be a time of interest rate forecasts but rather a time
of interest rate policy.
by patrick013
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns
Replies: 8
Views: 743

Re: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns

Well it's usually understood that companies pay out a reasonable amount of dividend if earnings leaves them with excess cash after amounts needed for growth. There's quality foreign company indexes and quality foreign dividend indexes, both with companies with great cash positions. I'm pro-dividend ...
by patrick013
Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns
Replies: 8
Views: 743

Re: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Policy And Stock Returns

Correlate the annual dividend in dollars with the annual price of the 500 in dollars for as many decades as you like. That is no doubt one of the reasons many researchers are for dividends as desirable. For certain index config's, usually LC, they have concluded as such. Ticker PEY is multi-cap but ...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3126
Views: 954833

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Picked up a copy of Personal Financial Planning, Gitman
on eBay. Basic and complete, a real Finance book. Goes
thru the worst bear market and the common bull market,
asset inventory, even how to work a Financial calculator.
The two paragraphs on index funds were right on the button.
by patrick013
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

I think one problem with factors is the indexed used. The S&P SC growth outperformed S&P SC value this current bull market. The Russell MC value outperformed over the last 22 full annual periods over other Russell general indexes. The data used for factor charts available to the public is based on C...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2328

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

https://image.ibb.co/iTw2L8/Portfolio_2018.jpg VGIT has an SEC yield 1% lower than your expected return? :confused Yeah, I'm expecting interest rates to rise in the short term and stay for awhile. Those bonds will turnover 100% in 5 years. Also, stocks to be benefited by the lower tax rates and gro...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2328

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

An awfully high number of investors, in my opinion, rely on folk wisdom ("stocks are for return, bonds are for safety") or rules-of-thumb-from-nowhere ("your age in bonds") instead of holding either optimal or, at the very least, market portfolios. For an aggressive portfolio with 30% bonds this is...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Thank you!!! I think you've just written six paragraphs that invalidate a whole bunch of guidance based upon provided by "academic research by Nobel prize winning authors." Best post of the thread since Rick's OP. :sharebeer Because obviously all those academics, with their Nobel Prizes in economic...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg
Replies: 30
Views: 4262

Re: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg

We need some advice as to how to get a 3% yield ($30K annual, $2500 monthly) from a $1.1 mil nest egg, as consistently as possible , protect the principal as much as possible, reduce risk as much as possible. If you can wait a little bit you'd probably get 4% 5 year CD's or 4% 10 year Agency bonds,...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2240

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

While some Intl's are having good years some are having
bad years currency exchange wise. So yeah, foreign
investing stays boring again.

Old investors would profiteer wherever they could. Not
bad for those seeking profit. Not as automated as it is now.
by patrick013
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on corporate debt from financial post
Replies: 1
Views: 303

Re: Article on corporate debt from financial post

Institutional investors probably like more debt, especially if they are investment banks. Buybacks make EPS look good whether the shareholders like it or not. Not really a dividend in my book. So they pay out the money or face a tax penalty or pay an excess dividend for awhile. If it bubbles compani...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: The Future For Factor Investing May Be Different From It’s Backtested Past
Replies: 2
Views: 692

Re: Alpha Architect: The Future For Factor Investing May Be Different From It’s Backtested Past

I think this article implicitly emphasizes the importance of an intuitive risk based or behavioral based rationale for a factor premium, and also implicitly emphasizes the necessity that a factor be robust to multiple definitions. Curious to hear what others think. Amongst the stat methods still un...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

I agree with Rick, a general index is a general index. Advisors can show off certain stocks but alot cannot, and advisors can show off certain index concentrations but as a factor result of concept. Most of these models haven't made it into business statistics books for non-math majors where pragmat...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k/Roth 401K split
Replies: 13
Views: 1095

Re: 401k/Roth 401K split

......... so when we retire as well so I don't expect to be in a higher tax bracket when I retire. Invest in tax-deferred if the marginal tax rate in retirement is expected to be less. Based on your budget you could put some 401k money into a Roth 401k if the plan permits. You would still have tax-...
by patrick013
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4315

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Based on this information, some of us make our decisions. When I based out a strategy I hypothesized I would buy a 10 year or slightly longer bond at 4% YTM. I bought one at a premium and one at a similar discount. I also planned on selling the bond in 3 years at 3% YTM estimated. So I calc'd what ...
by patrick013
Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Investments questions and advice?
Replies: 7
Views: 535

Re: Stock Investments questions and advice?

I'm fairly new to this all. I'm currently reading a book called: "One up on Wall Street" to grasp the understanding of stocks. That's an old Peter Lynch book. If I remember he buys brand names or common names having a slight downturn and then sells in 3-5 years after that good entry point ? Today h...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?
Replies: 16
Views: 1211

Re: Effective Number of Bets, or how many funds is enough?

Equal weights are probably a simpler calc. So if
more bets are better ( I think ) would that metric
lead to other facts perhaps in dollars or just a
portfolio quality statement. Amazing what things
can be invented.