Search found 2347 matches

by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 2637

Re: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio

Someday the old soup line may reappear and you will be glad to have a noticeable bond allocation. By soup line I mean a recession, depression, or a very lengthy market downturn. Benjamin Graham suggests 25% bonds, at least, for this purpose. Those who do not don't include the possibility in their un...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 875

Re: Bond Market Factors

Still wary about MLP's. They want to spend 500 billion on added pipes. How can they pay dividends at the same time ? Might be a lower dividend period. For a period in the early 00's, when normal equity indexes flat lined for years and commodities were booming, I owned a basket of MLPs, and then eve...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 875

Re: Bond Market Factors

I think the Fed policy to normalize rates is most important. As Bill Gross once said, the economy cannot function like this. Looking to the horizon I think the 2020's will be a buyer's market. FFR around 3.5%, Agency bonds, LT bond funds, dividend funds, and REIT's all looking at very good yields. ...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 875

Re: Bond Market Factors

I think the Fed policy to normalize rates is most important. As Bill Gross once said, the economy cannot function like this. Looking to the horizon I think the 2020's will be a buyer's market. FFR around 3.5%, Agency bonds, LT bond funds, dividend funds, and REIT's all looking at very good yields. S...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds. More bonds.
Replies: 2
Views: 800

Re: Bonds. More bonds.

What are tax exposed people doing for bonds these days? Is TIPS in taxable still best avoided? Did the recent tax legislation bring any changes I need to keep in mind? I'm looking at 10 year Agency new issues at Fidelity. Some of them are state tax exempt. 4% at par and may go higher next year. Oth...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8324

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

Can someone who has been observing this touting since 09 explain to me how that related to overnight rates? In other words my guess is consensus on rate hikes couldn't have been very high in 09. But it is near certainty for 2 more this year and high probability of 2 more next year. I'm assuming tou...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 31215

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I saw the 500 earnings TTM and decided to redo the chart.
Didn't know they would crash all day. :)

Image
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7355
Views: 1544571

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Blood Sweat and Tears.

Actually the market has reported earnings, while not high at
least realistic.

So, with low but stable growth, lower PE, lower taxes, here's
what the 500 could look like approaching the 3000 mark and
beyond.

Image
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated
Replies: 26
Views: 2674

Re: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated

Combine that with the fact that Baa bonds aren't all that risky to begin with, and this is what the article is saying: "The riskiest bonds among the lowest-risk corporates, which is one of the riskier segments of the low-risk Aggregate Index, have become somewhat riskier than they used to be." Neve...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5482

Re: Long or medium bonds

One journalist noticed that demand for US bonds by foreign buyers has decreased. This was attributed to the high cost of currency exchange when the bonds have to buy bought with US dollars. This could leave the door open for higher spreads in the near future assuming that the yield curve will not be...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2018

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

In bond fund, there are mix of bond. Historical return of BND has never been negative. Right now, I would only buy short duration bond or just even money market fund. Bond is less risky then equity but less projected return. https://image.ibb.co/nQEWwz/screen_10_05_2018_12_16_09.png Well I think BL...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4796

Re: Flattening yield curve

So if a flattening or inverted yield curve maybe causes a recession what causes the yield curve to be flat or inverted in the first place? Happening at the same time and causation are not the same thing. An inverted yield curve doesn't cause a recession; it's the result of the market predicting a r...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Economics: which one?
Replies: 9
Views: 937

Re: Economics: which one?

My son is going to college next year and for Economics he's not sure which one he should pursue. The choices are: General Economics Applied Economics Quantitative Economics He plans to do his MBA on finance - investments and portfolio management. I'm looking for guidance on the type of economics he...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5482

Re: Long or medium bonds

Short term govt. bonds hold up well in a crash. Longer terms may have NAV losses due to rate increases priced in the market so in a crash their value will increase somewhat but not as much as one would like potentially. Interestingly, it is generally the complete opposite. If you look at the 20 wor...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5482

Re: Long or medium bonds

I don't know which of these I should add to my portfolio and am seeking guidance. Investment grade bonds funds generally have similar credit ratings in their mix. AAA to BBB bonds unless the fund is a TRSY fund. The maturity selection of the fund is important from my viewpoint. Short term govt. bon...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1759

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Bogleheads: The market weight in REITs is ALREADY in Total Stock Market Index Fund. Also, if you own your home (mortgage or not), you already own a good chunk of real estate. Personally, I don't bother with a separate REIT fund. Read my "Simplicity" link below. Best wishes. Taylor Well your simplic...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1759

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Depending on your tax rate you may be able to keep REIT's in taxable, if really want to invest in real estate. New Tax Plan Is Boon for REITs But, they could have made the deduction 30% instead of 20%. Just FYI. Only applies to individual reits held In taxable accounts. Mutual funds and etfs do not...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1759

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Depending on your tax rate you may be able to keep REIT's
in taxable, if really want to invest in real estate.

New Tax Plan Is Boon for REITs

But, they could have made the deduction 30% instead of 20%.

Just FYI.
by patrick013
Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: individual bond ladder vs bond fund
Replies: 5
Views: 472

Re: individual bond ladder vs bond fund

His thesis was that in a rising interest rate environment bond funds will do poorly but bond ladder allows you to roll over your money to higher rates and that is much better. I agree with the Advisor. CD ladders are popular and bond ladders with only high investment grade bonds can be good. Re: CD...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends
Replies: 11
Views: 1415

Re: Dividends

When you are considering a total stock or LC market portfolio dividends are a good sign. So if the dividend yield is 2% and the payout ratio is 40% that is more or less normal. If those increase slightly then business activity is likely strong and the index price may rise. Market corrections will st...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts
Replies: 19
Views: 1906

Re: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts

Ticker PKW is the one I watch concerning buybacks. It appears to be a good competitor. Any buyback that does not increase EPS and shareholder value is just trivial. Also, being forced into an involuntary buyback may not be in the shareholders' interests. Shrinking equity base may not be possible as ...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6095

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

There are certainly some differing economic interpretations in the papers. Here's one clip describing the higher expectation. "In its updated outlook Wednesday, the Fed foresees one final rate hike after 2019 — in 2020 — which would leave its benchmark at 3.4 percent. At that point, it would regard ...
by patrick013
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1936

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Since 2008, factors that have outperformed large-cap stocks are
quality and small size. This year momentum is reported to be the
best. Usually value and size are considered best from long term
observations.
by patrick013
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder
Replies: 8
Views: 1134

Re: CD Ladder

... or is there more complexity to it that I’m missing? Bond ladders result in diversification that can eliminate interest rate risk, provide periodic liquidity, and predictable cash flows. Laddering CD's or bonds provides a hedge against interest rate risk. As interest rates rise redemption procee...
by patrick013
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I looked at 5-year treasury bonds rather than 10-year bonds (as in the WSJ article), primarily because the Ibbotson total return data I have is for 5-year bonds. I could extrapolate a 10-year total return by blending 5-year and 20-year numbers, but I don't think that'd be entirely accurate due to s...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

vineviz wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:50 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:59 pm
Well the YTM calc does the same thing so duration isn't absolutely needed.
This isn’t even a little bit true.
Relatively easy actually, to derive the bond price change percentage
related to a 1% change in yield using a YTM calculator.
by patrick013
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Sorry, but I can't see any practical use for it. Please keep in mind not all textbooks are written with your investment strategy in mind. I can assure you as someone who helps manage institutional fixed income portfolios that have been structured to back very specific types of liabilities, duration...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

And when bonds have done poorly, the return of a diversified portfolio with LT bonds wasn't *that* much worse than one with ST bonds. As such, why would you skip the chance to earn that premium? Is bond volatility really that bad? I think the numbers that portray that are based on prior coupons tha...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I think duration is just journalistic verbiage it can be such a joke. I think that bond investors, most of the time, have good reason to treat duration as the single most important descriptive measure of a bond or bond portfolio. Why even bother with it. Textbook writers must need something to fill...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I wouldn't use duration or investment horizon for any decisions regarding bond investments. I still refer to maturity, YTM, and target dating expected rate or yield curve changes. Doing just fine doing just that. I'd learn some bond strategies or buy TBM. Duration isn't accurate enough for me especi...
by patrick013
Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections
Replies: 2
Views: 326

Re: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections

Monte Carlo should give the most descriptive probabilities. Straight line contributions, compounding, and then withdrawals are a good starting point. But then put the results into Monte and see what it says. Reasonable averages are all we have for long term estimates based on our incomes, balance at...
by patrick013
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large, Mid, Small Cap Recommendations for Roth IRA
Replies: 10
Views: 669

Re: Large, Mid, Small Cap Recommendations for Roth IRA

Also, what about including dividend payers in the large cap since it's non-taxable? A Roth is the best place for equity no doubt. Tilting and causing some more volatility with LC general index, MC general index, and SC general index equally allocated is an aggressive tilt and has provided excellent...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawyers vs. Advisors
Replies: 2
Views: 748

Re: Lawyers vs. Advisors

Wm_o_o_o wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:46 am
Just in case this was intended as humerous, if you litigate, you'll be benefiting one side more than the other and taking sides isn't fair :)
I think the higher the fee the more possibility the Advisor(s) get sued.
by patrick013
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11702

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I'm thinking age-in-bonds stop at 50. But the only time I would rebalance is when PE's are very high, like 25 to 30ish, and just let the market have it's momentum most of the time otherwise. It really depends on personal risk, aggressive AA or not. Graham said to have 25% in stocks or 25% in bonds a...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawyers vs. Advisors
Replies: 2
Views: 748

Lawyers vs. Advisors

Litigation Tsunami Against Advisors

The lawyers want some active management regarding AA before
or in contemplation of a major market correction. The advisors
in many cases are buy-and-holders. Can we litigate here ?
by patrick013
Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18665

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Well if I rebalance when PE's are over 25 what to do when PE's
are over 30 ? I hope they don't have that much optimism and
confidence.
by patrick013
Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best argument to tilt retirement portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 606

Re: Best argument to tilt retirement portfolio

What is the best argument/data/study/post you have seen in favor of tilting your portfolio rather than buying a three-fund portfolio? Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation Bonds can be anything, doesn't have to be TBM or whatever. Gains held in a CD ladder look fine going forward several years. The t...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is individual Bonds better than Bond Fund?
Replies: 58
Views: 5311

Re: Is individual Bonds better than Bond Fund?

rgs92 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:14 pm
I don't think I ever heard Suze mention the kind of individual bonds she would use in an IRA. (Like short term treasuries? What good is that?)
Zero-coupon bonds. May yield higher than coupon bonds. Plus
you could target date withdrawals if needed to do so. So some
recommend zero's.
by patrick013
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is individual Bonds better than Bond Fund?
Replies: 58
Views: 5311

Re: Is individual Bonds better than Bond Fund?

I can change some of my bond AA to long from short term or from short term to long term to take advantage of changes in the secular trend in interest rates. Otherwise a bond fund has the diversification benefit when investing in muni's or corp bonds which should in an investment graded bond fund any...
by patrick013
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the stock market movements really random?
Replies: 37
Views: 2889

Re: Are the stock market movements really random?

I used to think GNP, CPI, and Growth explained the market while observing Consumption holding quite steady when market's crashed, leading to future optimism. Why not buy and hold. Looking at Earnings, Dividends, and PE's the future has a tighter and responsive explanation but all that does is tempe...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the stock market movements really random?
Replies: 37
Views: 2889

Re: Are the stock market movements really random?

I used to think GNP, CPI, and Growth explained the market while observing Consumption holding quite steady when market's crashed, leading to future optimism. Why not buy and hold. Looking at Earnings, Dividends, and PE's the future has a tighter and responsive explanation but all that does is temper...
by patrick013
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are your goals when you change your bond funds?
Replies: 36
Views: 2386

Re: What are your goals when you change your bond funds?

Phase out the 5 year CD ladder which did get 10 year TRSY yield levels out of a 5 year CD ladder. Switch to a 2 year CD ladder to target date FFR rate increases expected or even a MM fund. When the FFR peaks or is expected to fall again going into a LT bond fund. Hope- fully 4% and higher if a LT bo...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8324

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

July 2016 would have been an excellent time to deploy the go shorter strategy. Right, I was a little later that that but not too much so. So that brings the question: what is the signal to go back to intermediate term? Just to note I do make a half hearted attempt to market time fixed income yields...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 47
Views: 3445

Re: Investment Books

The Boglehead Guide should be on the shelf as it handles general investing and the market portfolio quite well. Others you just have to shop around for. Old finance textbooks usually have good chapters on tax shelters, bond strategy, a few hedges, financial planning or whatever the author is good at...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5694

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

Advisors that have begun to use Monte Carlo simulation are still applying the same advice they applied in the past but with access to the information Monte Carlo reports can provide. They ask the client how much they are currently saving, what their assets are, their risk, age of retirement and with...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5694

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

So.....with a 50-50 portfolio you should have yearly returns of 6% overall foreseeable with lower SD of 12-14% approximately. Even if that's true, you're still back to 3% real (if inflation runs at 3%). So I'm not sure things are any better under this scenario, but tell me if I'm missing something....
by patrick013
Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5694

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

Well you can't spend real dollars yet. I think it's better to adjust future budgets for inflation but let things like average returns and Monte's still use nominal dollars for their calculations. If you can't get a TRSY10 that pays 4% you should be able to get a Farm Credit GSE for 4% for 10 years a...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4771

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

It can usually be observed that the PE of the 500 is directly related to a Corporate A or BBB rated medium long bond yield although the movement to that point may be slow if the market has been trending overbought or oversold. Below the 10 year TRSY is used, the correlation could be higher, but the ...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good bond duration for low risk, younger investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1248

Re: Good bond duration for low risk, younger investor

It is not worth being clever. I couldn't agree more. It just seems to be pretty common advice for bond duration to somewhat match investment horizon . I have a very long horizon and thought it was worth considering whether my bond portfolio needed some adjustment. But not for 20-30 years...that's r...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 21349

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

Nobody addresses the limitations of duration they just say it does this or that, but only under prescribed conditions. The Advisor Manual doesn't recommend it at all but does mention Monte Carlo as useful to portfolio managers. Using a zero-coupon treasury isn't exactly req'd as with maturity matchi...