Search found 2366 matches

by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Making investment decisions based on reading tea leaves or guesses about which way the wind will blow on Friday is foolish. It’s your money, but let’s not pretend that it amounts to anything more than a naive attempt at timing the market. I don't define dynamic asset allocation as market timing. No...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Well read the Fed, they are the experts, they have the answers to that. They are the best advisors. You get what you pay for. "Read the Fed" is not coherent investment strategy: market timing doesn't work, plain and simple. Anyone who says differently is selling something. I'd rather have the infor...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

2pedals wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:37 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:52 pm

Better returns staying short term for awhile should add to total returns.
So, what the Fed experts have said is not already priced in the bond market. I find that very hard to believe.
Well it isn't.
by patrick013
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

The bond managers I'm reading today all agree on one thing from following the Fed. Shorten maturity, shorten duration. Some are managing tens of billions of dollars in bonds and are not afraid to say so. The bond managers were saying that 5-7 years ago... And they missed out. Nobody's an expert. Lo...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

The notion that an individual investor can predict the trajectory of future bond prices better than the market can is a myth that won't die. Many otherwise smart people, who espouse Boglehead beliefs in every other way, seem to cling to the notion that market timing is possible and even easy in fix...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 119
Views: 11222

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:04 pm
I always laugh when people talk about a bond "crash". What you mean having them going down 5% in a year?
Three year history is a little better. There's some 2 year history.

Image
by patrick013
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2577

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

Highest expectation is the FFR at 3.5% which would put the Prime rate guideline at 6.5%. So govt and corp bonds could get rates at some spread to the FFR. Interest rates are still low and investors are expecting their rise. Interest rates can be a concern to investors because as rates rise, the NAV...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2577

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

Highest expectation is the FFR at 3.5% which would put the Prime rate guideline at 6.5%. So govt and corp bonds could get rates at some spread to the FFR. Interest rates are still low and investors are expecting their rise. Interest rates can be a concern to investors because as rates rise, the NAV ...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10780

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in ...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2404

Re: Masters Degree Advice

Well any employer paid deal is probably worth it. Assuming future promotions or employment is considered. My employer paid for my college but we lost a big customer, centralized operations, etc.. So all I got was a free degree in a market with many other degreed people which I didn't feel like leavi...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1746

Re: would you buy bonds or corporate bonds now?

As a general rule I would buy AAA corp or muni's just for diversification, 5 year maturity or less. Otherwise the bond funds provide diversification and higher yields. Right now it looks like a 2 year CD followed by a 2 year CD would beat a 4 year CD and probably high rated bonds as well. The 2020's...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to change tires; and what brand
Replies: 103
Views: 4721

Re: When to change tires; and what brand

Dunlop used to be good. Perhaps Cooper. Most of the others
just consumer grade. But they all have premium grade if so
desired.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Masters Degree Advice
Replies: 25
Views: 2404

Re: Masters Degree Advice

Huskies26 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:48 pm

So an opportunity may arise in the near future to have my Masters in Systems Engineering fully paid for at a top 10 US University.
What does a Systems Engineer have or do ? Build bridges, design new machinery ?
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta
Replies: 5
Views: 632

Re: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta

I would minimize the Coefficient of Variation so the stocks with lower CV's would have higher AA for a group of 10-15 promising stocks perhaps. Would use a linear program, be pragmatic, wouldn't address sectors, would weight the stocks to 100%, and probably not what you want. Almost like weighting b...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10780

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

If Intl pickups again there is nothing to stop an investor from adding AA for it. The little spurt of business activity enjoyed by Intl earlier in the year seems to have died out. So until Intl puts together some reliable annual returns I'm discouraged again. I don't like thinking I'm investing in t...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing During Retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 2683

Re: Investing During Retirement

Instead of putting a portion (20%, 40%, 60%) of your money in bonds or a bond fund (short term or not), put your risk off money in short term CD's, which are guaranteed (with certain reasonable restrictions). It's the day when a 2 year CD followed by another 2 year CD at maturity will beat a 4 year...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand dividends
Replies: 145
Views: 12352

Re: Help me understand dividends

Dividends are a good thing. You will see dividends increase
in large cap indexes as the index price increases. Profitable
companies in the upper tier of returns exhibit even higher
returns above lower tiers when dividends are increased and as
a resulting multiple of that increase.

Just FYI.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta
Replies: 5
Views: 632

Re: Single Stock Concentration: Google Sheets beta

Try XOM, that's a pretty well known ticker.

edit: perhaps put a growth or quality factor in.
You may be punishing stocks that have higher
volatility due to higher EPS or revenue growth
with a lower AA.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing During Retirement
Replies: 20
Views: 2683

Re: Investing During Retirement

Fidelity has a CD ladder option which will renew CD ladders automatically at very good rates. You can designate these CD's as spendable or renewable when they mature. No market gain or loss problem when withdrawals need to be made annually. Or depending how rates go zero coupon bonds in a 3 to 5 yea...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 2721

Re: Does Timing Matter? 3 Fund Portfolio

Someday the old soup line may reappear and you will be glad to have a noticeable bond allocation. By soup line I mean a recession, depression, or a very lengthy market downturn. Benjamin Graham suggests 25% bonds, at least, for this purpose. Those who do not don't include the possibility in their un...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 913

Re: Bond Market Factors

Still wary about MLP's. They want to spend 500 billion on added pipes. How can they pay dividends at the same time ? Might be a lower dividend period. For a period in the early 00's, when normal equity indexes flat lined for years and commodities were booming, I owned a basket of MLPs, and then eve...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 913

Re: Bond Market Factors

I think the Fed policy to normalize rates is most important. As Bill Gross once said, the economy cannot function like this. Looking to the horizon I think the 2020's will be a buyer's market. FFR around 3.5%, Agency bonds, LT bond funds, dividend funds, and REIT's all looking at very good yields. ...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 913

Re: Bond Market Factors

I think the Fed policy to normalize rates is most important. As Bill Gross once said, the economy cannot function like this. Looking to the horizon I think the 2020's will be a buyer's market. FFR around 3.5%, Agency bonds, LT bond funds, dividend funds, and REIT's all looking at very good yields. S...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds. More bonds.
Replies: 2
Views: 814

Re: Bonds. More bonds.

What are tax exposed people doing for bonds these days? Is TIPS in taxable still best avoided? Did the recent tax legislation bring any changes I need to keep in mind? I'm looking at 10 year Agency new issues at Fidelity. Some of them are state tax exempt. 4% at par and may go higher next year. Oth...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8358

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

Can someone who has been observing this touting since 09 explain to me how that related to overnight rates? In other words my guess is consensus on rate hikes couldn't have been very high in 09. But it is near certainty for 2 more this year and high probability of 2 more next year. I'm assuming tou...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33786

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I saw the 500 earnings TTM and decided to redo the chart.
Didn't know they would crash all day. :)

Image
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7439
Views: 1557084

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Blood Sweat and Tears.

Actually the market has reported earnings, while not high at
least realistic.

So, with low but stable growth, lower PE, lower taxes, here's
what the 500 could look like approaching the 3000 mark and
beyond.

Image
by patrick013
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated
Replies: 26
Views: 2721

Re: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated

Combine that with the fact that Baa bonds aren't all that risky to begin with, and this is what the article is saying: "The riskiest bonds among the lowest-risk corporates, which is one of the riskier segments of the low-risk Aggregate Index, have become somewhat riskier than they used to be." Neve...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5587

Re: Long or medium bonds

One journalist noticed that demand for US bonds by foreign buyers has decreased. This was attributed to the high cost of currency exchange when the bonds have to buy bought with US dollars. This could leave the door open for higher spreads in the near future assuming that the yield curve will not be...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond index and rising interest rates
Replies: 17
Views: 2040

Re: bond index and rising interest rates

In bond fund, there are mix of bond. Historical return of BND has never been negative. Right now, I would only buy short duration bond or just even money market fund. Bond is less risky then equity but less projected return. https://image.ibb.co/nQEWwz/screen_10_05_2018_12_16_09.png Well I think BL...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4845

Re: Flattening yield curve

So if a flattening or inverted yield curve maybe causes a recession what causes the yield curve to be flat or inverted in the first place? Happening at the same time and causation are not the same thing. An inverted yield curve doesn't cause a recession; it's the result of the market predicting a r...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Economics: which one?
Replies: 9
Views: 945

Re: Economics: which one?

My son is going to college next year and for Economics he's not sure which one he should pursue. The choices are: General Economics Applied Economics Quantitative Economics He plans to do his MBA on finance - investments and portfolio management. I'm looking for guidance on the type of economics he...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5587

Re: Long or medium bonds

Short term govt. bonds hold up well in a crash. Longer terms may have NAV losses due to rate increases priced in the market so in a crash their value will increase somewhat but not as much as one would like potentially. Interestingly, it is generally the complete opposite. If you look at the 20 wor...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5587

Re: Long or medium bonds

I don't know which of these I should add to my portfolio and am seeking guidance. Investment grade bonds funds generally have similar credit ratings in their mix. AAA to BBB bonds unless the fund is a TRSY fund. The maturity selection of the fund is important from my viewpoint. Short term govt. bon...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1769

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Bogleheads: The market weight in REITs is ALREADY in Total Stock Market Index Fund. Also, if you own your home (mortgage or not), you already own a good chunk of real estate. Personally, I don't bother with a separate REIT fund. Read my "Simplicity" link below. Best wishes. Taylor Well your simplic...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1769

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Depending on your tax rate you may be able to keep REIT's in taxable, if really want to invest in real estate. New Tax Plan Is Boon for REITs But, they could have made the deduction 30% instead of 20%. Just FYI. Only applies to individual reits held In taxable accounts. Mutual funds and etfs do not...
by patrick013
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1769

Re: REIT ETFs in Taxable Account: To sell or not ?

Depending on your tax rate you may be able to keep REIT's
in taxable, if really want to invest in real estate.

New Tax Plan Is Boon for REITs

But, they could have made the deduction 30% instead of 20%.

Just FYI.
by patrick013
Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: individual bond ladder vs bond fund
Replies: 5
Views: 486

Re: individual bond ladder vs bond fund

His thesis was that in a rising interest rate environment bond funds will do poorly but bond ladder allows you to roll over your money to higher rates and that is much better. I agree with the Advisor. CD ladders are popular and bond ladders with only high investment grade bonds can be good. Re: CD...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends
Replies: 11
Views: 1424

Re: Dividends

When you are considering a total stock or LC market portfolio dividends are a good sign. So if the dividend yield is 2% and the payout ratio is 40% that is more or less normal. If those increase slightly then business activity is likely strong and the index price may rise. Market corrections will st...
by patrick013
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts
Replies: 19
Views: 1933

Re: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts

Ticker PKW is the one I watch concerning buybacks. It appears to be a good competitor. Any buyback that does not increase EPS and shareholder value is just trivial. Also, being forced into an involuntary buyback may not be in the shareholders' interests. Shrinking equity base may not be possible as ...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6129

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

There are certainly some differing economic interpretations in the papers. Here's one clip describing the higher expectation. "In its updated outlook Wednesday, the Fed foresees one final rate hike after 2019 — in 2020 — which would leave its benchmark at 3.4 percent. At that point, it would regard ...
by patrick013
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1976

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Since 2008, factors that have outperformed large-cap stocks are
quality and small size. This year momentum is reported to be the
best. Usually value and size are considered best from long term
observations.
by patrick013
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder
Replies: 8
Views: 1162

Re: CD Ladder

... or is there more complexity to it that I’m missing? Bond ladders result in diversification that can eliminate interest rate risk, provide periodic liquidity, and predictable cash flows. Laddering CD's or bonds provides a hedge against interest rate risk. As interest rates rise redemption procee...
by patrick013
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I looked at 5-year treasury bonds rather than 10-year bonds (as in the WSJ article), primarily because the Ibbotson total return data I have is for 5-year bonds. I could extrapolate a 10-year total return by blending 5-year and 20-year numbers, but I don't think that'd be entirely accurate due to s...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

vineviz wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:50 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:59 pm
Well the YTM calc does the same thing so duration isn't absolutely needed.
This isn’t even a little bit true.
Relatively easy actually, to derive the bond price change percentage
related to a 1% change in yield using a YTM calculator.
by patrick013
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

Sorry, but I can't see any practical use for it. Please keep in mind not all textbooks are written with your investment strategy in mind. I can assure you as someone who helps manage institutional fixed income portfolios that have been structured to back very specific types of liabilities, duration...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

And when bonds have done poorly, the return of a diversified portfolio with LT bonds wasn't *that* much worse than one with ST bonds. As such, why would you skip the chance to earn that premium? Is bond volatility really that bad? I think the numbers that portray that are based on prior coupons tha...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I think duration is just journalistic verbiage it can be such a joke. I think that bond investors, most of the time, have good reason to treat duration as the single most important descriptive measure of a bond or bond portfolio. Why even bother with it. Textbook writers must need something to fill...
by patrick013
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2574

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I wouldn't use duration or investment horizon for any decisions regarding bond investments. I still refer to maturity, YTM, and target dating expected rate or yield curve changes. Doing just fine doing just that. I'd learn some bond strategies or buy TBM. Duration isn't accurate enough for me especi...
by patrick013
Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections
Replies: 2
Views: 329

Re: Statistical Significance within 30 year projections

Monte Carlo should give the most descriptive probabilities. Straight line contributions, compounding, and then withdrawals are a good starting point. But then put the results into Monte and see what it says. Reasonable averages are all we have for long term estimates based on our incomes, balance at...