Search found 2580 matches

by patrick013
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: Larry Swedroe: Low-Volatility Investing Works - Sometimes

Forester wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:43 am
Hasn't low volatility in US stocks matched or beaten the market in this "growth decade" ?
According to Russell indexes' recent numbers quality has come out ahead of all the 7 factors they account for over the last 10 years thru May 2019.

Volatility has beaten their USA index slightly however.
by patrick013
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those of you who have a factor diversified portfolio, what is yours?
Replies: 34
Views: 2200

Re: For those of you who have a factor diversified portfolio, what is yours?

https://research.ftserussell.com/Analytics/Factsheets/Home/DownloadSingleIssue?issueName=FUSYQVF&IsManual=false&_ga=2.267020302.1241255804.1560961642-1579094317.1560961642 The first page has some interesting factor info for FTSE indexes. Quality and size are the 2 with best performance they have. I ...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 16, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 3705

Re: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio

I am wondering if You just need to invest a few good dividend ETF or Index funds instead of owning a whole basket of individual stocks that I need to monitor. https://jiigvw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4m2vvg0WbQ0HdNa0Ex_hcfNZOkp-LoEcKxokwVJ482kPMRQN187OtyoNJ0T5VP2chqiUJHREdfK-6g9DqA1zrsNHNQgDbq23rLsBTLNeaE...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need "Professional Trustee?"
Replies: 44
Views: 2878

Re: Do I need "Professional Trustee?"

If the trust only contained marketable securities to be distributed equally.....

I think even HRBlock could close the trust for a couple of family trustees and co-signors.
by patrick013
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

It's easy to attack monte carlo if one assumes it means more than it does. I don't know many people who use any monte carlo simulation as a hard fact of probability of success. All monte carlo and other simulations are meant to do is explore the implications of certain assumptions. One data point a...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CDARS - Can anyone share experience?
Replies: 7
Views: 1018

Re: CDARS - Can anyone share experience?

https://www.tiaabank.com/banking/cdars

One of the better CDARS provider around. Rates change all the time but the service is about the same whoever offers the service.


...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 Million Into Fixed Income
Replies: 37
Views: 5370

Re: 5 Million Into Fixed Income

Someone mentioned to get a CD ladder because that would offset any rise in rates, since, as they come due you buy at the higher rate. However, a ladder of bonds has a (nearly) fixed duration, so this actually wouldn’t be that helpful. Correct? (unless its a ladder with very short duration) Which br...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

A lot of people on the forum seem negative on MC. I wonder what kind of planning tool they use in its place. Expected returns and a pro-forma cash flow worksheet. For example I did a long term CD accumulation and withdrawal worksheet. Well the expected interest rate used was 4%. Recently redid that...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Difference between "30 day SEC Yield" vs. 30 day actual yield
Replies: 2
Views: 389

Re: Difference between "30 day SEC Yield" vs. 30 day actual yield

Check the BH wiki for YTM vs Current Yield vs SEC Yield
by patrick013
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 81
Views: 8258

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

Thank you ahead of time to any willing to provide their insight and give me some pointers. Well at your net worth I would be conservative. That would be about 25% stocks divided equally between LC, MC, and SC, general indexes. Waiting for a good entry can have a cost of waiting but not a bad idea n...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

A lot of people on the forum seem negative on MC. I wonder what kind of planning tool they use in its place. Expected returns and a pro-forma cash flow worksheet. For example I did a long term CD accumulation and withdrawal worksheet. Well the expected interest rate used was 4%. Recently redid that...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

But using less than a century of data to predict things 30 or 50 years into the future with no solid theoretical basis for why the available data is what it is, or is meaningful or predictive (e.g.: the stock market) , is a house of cards. "House of cards" = Bayesian Probabilities. -B I usually thi...
by patrick013
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

To resolve the uncertainty which controls the outcome of a long term plan, a thousand different simulations have to be taken into account, some samples important and some slight, all varying in their effect, and with the probability of new combinations appearing which would be temporarily positive o...
by patrick013
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15382

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I think traditional portfolio theory is adequate. Volatility measures aren't excessive. Total returns can be spent but not statistical metrics. MPT is just an academic concept then. The same with duration. It is so linear it can hardly be used in most situations. Another academic concept then. Some...
by patrick013
Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15382

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I'm inclined to agree. Everyone is seeking to maximize something, but exactly what they're trying to maximize can be hard to pin down. It's certainly true that maximizing one's returns is not the goal of many investors, nor is the maximization of risk-adjusted returns. Many investors could be well ...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

MC does the job of measuring the probability or likelihood of a certain return or event being realized. All of the probabilities used are from prior observations so future results can vary. Also estimates are based on the current estimates of the program's user. Portfolio managers can use MC to exam...
by patrick013
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16600

Re: Diversification Regret

When international starts out performing I guarantee you'll see threads popping up asking if it's ok to get back in. The other hardcore "Bogle was right" posters will be hand wringing and talking to themselves with maybe a few sleepless nights here and there. The other low correlation asset commonl...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying farmland shares through AcreTrader
Replies: 10
Views: 956

Re: Buying farmland shares through AcreTrader

Rent should be about 70% of gross revenue ?
by patrick013
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using beta to prioritize stock sales?
Replies: 12
Views: 591

Re: Using beta to prioritize stock sales?

We'd like to trade these for total stk mkt index. To prioritize sales I've multiplied each stocks beta by its portfolio weight. We'd sell the highest weighted betas this year and continue sales next year. Netting losses will also be considered. www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/calc...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 6548

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

If this advise was followed the 10 year TRSY ladder would lose 1.63% per year compared to a LT TRSY asset in the portfolio, an opportunity loss. But at my option bonds matured possibly replaced by new 30 year TRSY bonds could have a 2.25% benefit start per year if interest forecasts ever became rea...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 6548

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Hedging with EDV is interesting but can be just as uncertain. Buying for the longest term at 4 or 5 or 6 percent would trigger some buying but not at 3% today. My budget isn't hurting and needs to stay where it is at. Talk of lower rates is just talk until it happens. The case for long-term bonds r...
by patrick013
Fri May 31, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 6548

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Investors in general (including some of the posters here) experience a drop in portfolio value as a loss, but do not experience a missed gain as a loss in the same way. But they should! The fact that EDV has returned 7% CAGR over the past 10 years while short Treasuries only 1% is absolutely a loss...
by patrick013
Thu May 30, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1334

Re: AA to Bonds

So if you are conservative in your expenditures and rich, why on wouldn't you remain largely equity sided. Well the last bailout cost the govt. a trillion dollars I've heard. Without that bailout we'd all be using ATM machines, mortgage banks would be very scarce, and substantial equity value would...
by patrick013
Thu May 30, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1334

Re: AA to Bonds

It just seems odd that people focus so much on rules of thumb to determine percentage based AA towards bonds. Is there something I am missing? It's subjective in a way. But objective in another way. IMHO. 25% bonds - aggressive, alot of market risk and market returns 50% bonds - moderate, optimizin...
by patrick013
Wed May 29, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4825

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

Combining assets that have a low correlation with each other can reduce the overall variability of a portfolio’s returns but more often than not waters down returns below acceptable levels. There just isn't that many good uncorrelated assets to work with. So if we have a wide variety of stocks and b...
by patrick013
Wed May 29, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4825

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

Yes indeed , one would want to have an IPS with rebalancing parameters addressing this kind of situation, especially so if one chose to invest in Vanguard's Extended Duration Treasury bond fund EDV, up over 55% in 2008. I added its performance to what you've already come up with. Unfortunately, it ...
by patrick013
Wed May 29, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4825

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

Returns ranged from 3.7% against a 2.3% rate decrease to 12.2% against a rate increase of 2.9%. I think that's enough to convince me I don't need to worry about how today's interest rates affect long term treasuries. I'll plan on using them. I don't disagree with your decision to hedge with some LT...
by patrick013
Tue May 28, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4825

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

Have any holes been poked in low-volatility by academics? 30 years of results are compelling, but it's still not impossible that it's an explainable and temporary anomaly. Low-volatility to me refers to quality of earnings, stability, and therefore less market volatility. General indexes may or may...
by patrick013
Tue May 28, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio
Replies: 39
Views: 4825

Re: So I think I'm nearly sold on the S&P Low Volatility indexes for my entire retirement portfolio

Where am I wrong about bonds in 2019? I think the trade-off with bonds is does a 3 to 5 yr. CD or TRSY ladder makes sense when those can mature and pay expenses for several years, no problem, no loss recorded. So if stocks drop 30 to 40 percent and stay that way for several years every dime you spe...
by patrick013
Tue May 28, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 6548

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

This shows that the longer dated the bond, and the lower the current yield, the more the bond will appreciate for each percent of interest rate drop. Observing the concept of duration. Most importantly low coupon and bonds selling at a discount have higher durations and will result in higher gains ...
by patrick013
Mon May 27, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What goes wrong after index enlightenment
Replies: 41
Views: 5200

Re: What goes wrong after index enlightenment

The reason is for investing in index funds is incredibly straightforward. If you keep costs low, you keep more of the market return. Avoid costs, develop a long-term portfolio for your unique needs, stay disciplined, and be tax efficient; these ideas are basic concepts. Index logic has outperformed...
by patrick013
Sun May 26, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Diversification is Enough?
Replies: 24
Views: 2426

Re: How Much Diversification is Enough?

There isn't much benefit SD wise by having more than 50 stocks. But if many stocks are high quality or growing should you have 100 stocks or 1000. Some lesser quality stocks could do better than higher quality selection wise. If they don't the index selection could be considered watered down. Energy...
by patrick013
Thu May 23, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?
Replies: 74
Views: 8500

Re: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?

So why when I always see recommendations, I see people saying either just go 100% large cap, or go 80-90 large cap and 10-20% small cap for the tilt. I almost never see people going mid caps, even when it has outperformed for 50 years. Usually people say tilt more towards small cap, but shouldn't y...
by patrick013
Tue May 21, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All-in-One ETF Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 526

Re: All-in-One ETF Portfolio

I also incorporated Jack Bogle's opinion of some Gold in portfolio and his preference to corporate bonds over treasuries. I struggled with using 40% or 45% stock. Let me know what you think. %40 Total Stock Market VT %25 Intermediate Corporate VCIT %10 Intermediate Term Treasuries VGIT %10 Real Est...
by patrick013
Tue May 21, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth 401k vs. traditional for high income earner
Replies: 24
Views: 1598

Re: Roth 401k vs. traditional for high income earner

It's up to you to determine your tax rate now and in the future all taxable items considered. If tax rate will be less in retirement then t401k should be used. Also, Roth conversions would be unwarranted. Backdoor Roth is an option. Your 401k advisor probably expects your tax rate to be about the sa...
by patrick013
Tue May 21, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?
Replies: 74
Views: 8500

Re: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?

Looking at it in terms of operational efficiency rather than market efficiency. LC's have the economies of scale and sheer size but also can evolve into large sections of below industry mean operations. Low revenue per square foot, unused capacity, closings of main profit centers, etc.. So midcaps c...
by patrick013
Tue May 21, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts
Replies: 40
Views: 2138

Re: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

When you regress GNP, CPI, and EPS always guess on the low side and apply a confidence interval. I mean who could think EPS will be 150 next year for the S&P 500. Maybe 140 at the most.
by patrick013
Mon May 20, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to setup Own Fund or Private Equity
Replies: 12
Views: 984

Re: How to setup Own Fund or Private Equity

What you want is an investment holding company, a corporate entity. You and the other partners decide which assets to buy, basically stocks and bonds. A few tax laws to learn. You'll probably need a customized tax structure for your business needs so a few hours of tax and legal consulting would be ...
by patrick013
Sat May 18, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 3257

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

I think bond funds are vegetable stew but do react short and long term to the market up or down. When one considers that, in real life, the yield curve is just an approximation and it constantly fluctuates, that bonds are bought at premium and at discount on the secondary market, that they're sold ...
by patrick013
Sat May 18, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 3257

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Accurately predicting the exact future return of such a complex bond fund as a Total Bond Market fund over any future period of time (1 day to 60 years) is simply impossible . In the short term (1 day), a change in the yield curve (unknowable in advance) dominates total return. In the long term (2 ...
by patrick013
Fri May 17, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence
Replies: 23
Views: 3158

Re: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence

Any ideas what is causing this divergence? General stock indexes based on size can be observed taking turns. In any given time period LC's will have the highest return, then the next annual period MC's or SC's will record the highest return for that annual period. Then the process will repeat. So a...
by patrick013
Fri May 17, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 3257

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

When I read thru the SEC instructions for SEC Yield awhile back while in a discussion on the Morningstar forum the end result was : YTC adjusted for and including fund expense, including accrued but unpaid interest in the principal amount, and then adjusting the result for a 360 day year. This for a...
by patrick013
Thu May 16, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting very slightly towards small & mid caps. Is this a good idea?
Replies: 36
Views: 2883

Re: Tilting very slightly towards small & mid caps. Is this a good idea?

On a scale of 1-10, if 1 is very risk adverse and 10 is very aggressive, I am probably between a 7.5-8.5. Sure, lots of people tilt. People who tilt tend to tilt much stronger than what you suggest, but your plan is fine. For comparison, I tilt 50% of my stock holdings to small cap value. How about...
by patrick013
Thu May 16, 2019 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting very slightly towards small & mid caps. Is this a good idea?
Replies: 36
Views: 2883

Re: Tilting very slightly towards small & mid caps. Is this a good idea?

After including my 25% international, the AA would be 46/21/8/25 (large/mid/small/international). It's a gamble. For an aggressive portfolio an equal % AA is as good as any AA. I would go with the S&P Small Cap index. The Russell 2000 is a benchmark but the S&P usually gets the higher return. My In...
by patrick013
Thu May 16, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)
Replies: 19
Views: 1570

Re: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)

Schwab wants to discern 53 ETF's in 20 asset classes. Do they tend to put folks using this type of robo-plus service into that many, or just 4-6 (plus cash)? I'm curious. Well you could get Intl REIT, Commodities, US Preferred, and Intl Small Cap Value at least. :) One thing good about US investmen...
by patrick013
Thu May 16, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)
Replies: 19
Views: 1570

Re: Vanguard or Fidelity (advisor support)

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Schwab's new ultra low fee advisory service (less then Vanguard's). I don't currently use any advisor service. Schwab is currently my broker and I own several Vanguard mutual funds and ETF's. See https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investment_advice/intelligent_a...
by patrick013
Tue May 14, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Am I Missing Here
Replies: 15
Views: 1604

Re: What Am I Missing Here

The annuity would help securing a core income. An SPIA needs about 15-20 years life expectancy to really pay out a good discounted return. A Fixed Term annuity usually pays out more than a comparable CD return-wise but with a monthly payment to you. So it is another option to increase monthly income...
by patrick013
Sun May 12, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Direction of interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1869

Re: Direction of interest rates

So, generally, if you know QE is ending and the Fed is also about to start letting MBS move off its balance sheet, it's probably fair that there will be an increase in mortgage interest rates in the short run. Beyond that, it can be tough. If you see all the inputs to basic Fed macroeconomic models...
by patrick013
Sun May 12, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Direction of interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1869

Re: Direction of interest rates

So, generally, if you know QE is ending and the Fed is also about to start letting MBS move off its balance sheet, it's probably fair that there will be an increase in mortgage interest rates in the short run. Beyond that, it can be tough. If you see all the inputs to basic Fed macroeconomic models...
by patrick013
Fri May 10, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Funds.
Replies: 26
Views: 2531

Re: Funds.

In the withdrawal phase, some may prefer high dividends to make their withdrawals less emotional (“Look ma! I’m not selling any shares!”) but again, total return should be the goal. The best idea is to reinvest the dividends. Make any withdrawals from older shares and pay LTCG tax on them. In a Rot...