Search found 2444 matches

by patrick013
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fed funds rate effect bond funds?
Replies: 8
Views: 324

Re: fed funds rate effect bond funds?

guys, I understand your points but my question remains, why did TLT make those wild moves in those 4 years? I believe it was news events and traders/bots trading TLT that caused these moves. where TLT and BND will go in the next year is anybodys guess, but for certain TLT will have wilder moves tha...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing

Final thought. Is there a thread on total return vs dividend investing. What are your opinions. Thanks again. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-the-beauty-of-simplicity-the-sp-500-low-volatility-high-dividend-index.pdf?force_download=true The above is a little old. See Exhibit 14...
by patrick013
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing

I'd probably hold on to what you've got. One thing is 100% certain. Markets recover. Markets recover, but there is no way to determine if a particular stock ever will. With the OP’s level of capital gains (assuming they are long term), the federal tax bill would be around $2300. Any state/local tax...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing

I'd probably hold on to what you've got. One thing is 100% certain. Markets recover. Markets recover, but there is no way to determine if a particular stock ever will. With the OP’s level of capital gains (assuming they are long term), the federal tax bill would be around $2300. Any state/local tax...
by patrick013
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Dividend Investing to Total Return Investing

I will incur a further big loss dumping my losers right now. Didn’t know if I should hold some of them for a while longer To see if they’ll come back. All of these losses are the reason I’m considering changing over to a total return portfolio. Or do I just need to face the music right now. Thank y...
by patrick013
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2185

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

What I understood by risks cancelling out is that any possible loss from rates rising (because money is tied up in a long bond yielding less) will eventually get offset by the new coupons at the date of maturity. And that any risk of coupons getting reinvested at lower yields gets eventually offset...
by patrick013
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 106
Views: 21600

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

S&P 500 and 5 year bond fund or CD ladder is very hard to beat.

Your choice of aggressive, moderate, or conservative AA.

From there you could have SPIA annuities, long term bonds, REITS,
and high yield dividend funds. How very non-simplistic then.
by patrick013
Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the expected real return of S&P 500 for the next 30 years?
Replies: 51
Views: 4287

Re: What is the expected real return of S&P 500 for the next 30 years?

So, what real return can we confidently expect for the next 30 years? 30 years is an awful long time to estimate. Most analysts like the 3 to 5 year range to talk about. There could be drought, bank failures, anything unexpected positive or negative. If GNP and GDP continue to grow so will the inde...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years
Replies: 45
Views: 7263

Re: Is 3.5% possible over next 30 years

If you had a blank sheet of paper and a clear crystal ball, where would you put your eggs? Please give no consideration to my cost of selling. I do not mind a moderate amount of management although a simple 3 fund approach certainly has some appeal. I am open to any suggestion. Backtest Portfolio A...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 6945

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I took 4 years of math in high school, algebra thru geometry. What better preparation for college courses where math is predominant. Just like high school biology and chemistry would be for college sciences. They used to say an accounting degree plus an MBA in Finance or Economics makes the big corp...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often To Expect -10% and -20% Stock Drops
Replies: 19
Views: 2702

Re: How Often To Expect -10% and -20% Stock Drops

The current market slide, after an unprecedented 10 year bull run got me to wondering: Statistically how often have we seen the S&P500 drop 10%? 20? In other words, for a 60 year old (I'm approaching 59) person, with a remaining 20-30 year life expectancy, how many of these draw downs are to be exp...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay the course or change portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1680

Re: Stay the course or change portfolio

Your retirement plan should cover your expenses. I wouldn't do anything fancy or anything at all otherwise. Every business cycle runs it's course. Revaluations, market prices resets, index replacements, etc.. Higher interest actually halts some overproduction and excess growth and puts money in cons...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book? [for a new investor]
Replies: 21
Views: 1658

Re: Which book? [for a new investor]

If you get a Kindle Fire for Xmas - Investing QuickStart Guide Ted D. Snow, CFP MBA Starts off with a Malkiel influence, proceeds with a practical guide to various investment routines. A Beginner's Guide to Investing Alex Frey CFA MBA Haven't started this one. 100 pages to double your money. What's ...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay the course or change portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1680

Re: Stay the course or change portfolio

Greetings, Until recently, my portfolio was 40% stock and 60% bond/CD. A few months ago, I sold all bonds, closed my CDs and bought more stocks. My portfolio is now 100% stock. Since I started investing recently, I do not have that much accumulation and my net worth is down about 20%. My non-taxabl...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond funds up since rate hikes
Replies: 9
Views: 1057

Re: bond funds up since rate hikes

Anything can happen when stocks go to correction, bear, recession. Analysts think stocks are fine but can the index post $170 EPS from $122 EPS based on a reduction in taxes ? So quite a few analysts are expecting a recession in 2019 very possible. They'd be lying if they didn't guess so. The Fed is...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to monitor return/risk of a portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 736

Re: how to monitor return/risk of a portfolio

My initial thought was to just wait two years and then on an annual basis compute mean and std dev, but with such a small sample size (unless perhaps I used monthly data?) it doesn't seem to me to make sense. Suggestions? Most AA's I've looked at come to be less risky when I lower the portfolio Bet...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond, Age, and Assest Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 987

Re: Bond, Age, and Assest Allocation

For general population advice, age in bonds should be replaced with an amount based on percentage of your target required assets you have. Further refinement to the individual can then take place based on ability, willingness and need to take risk . age-in-bonds is a conservative approach but stopp...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3/4/5 Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 1706

Re: 3/4/5 Fund Portfolio?

I would say investment style is aggressive, as I am willing to accept losses in excess of market average to allow for greater appreciation. I also have approximately 150k in cash, 250k in individual stocks, 1.2M in retirement funds, and no debt. 50 years old, and current plans are to work for 10-15...
by patrick013
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3/4/5 Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 1706

Re: 3/4/5 Fund Portfolio?

Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation = https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&startYear=1987&endYear=2018&initialAmount=1000000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice/Perspective for investing cash and overall AA.
Replies: 1
Views: 175

Re: Advice/Perspective for investing cash and overall AA.

Vanguard Investment Fundamentals Guide

The above is a pretty basic read, plus the Boglehead Guide (see wiki)

CA muni bond fund would be state tax free (wish they were shorter term)
Some Agency bonds are state tax free. (can buy shorter maturities)
by patrick013
Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10634

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

If they screw up the way the Reserve Primary Money Market Mutual Fund did and invest in something risky, then the value of the investments could decline, and SIPC does nothing if that happens. Sutton Bank's participation just seems to involve the debit card. If the savings account were actually at ...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Robinhood to offer 3% cash management program, not a bank account]
Replies: 160
Views: 10634

Re: [Robinhood to launch 3% interest bearing accounts, but is not a bank]

The account cash balance should stay the same. If RobinHood goes bankrupt and cannot payout the SIPC will pay. No ? I don't think the balance should change based on RobinHood's fortunes.
by patrick013
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market Fund that pays ~3% Dividend
Replies: 12
Views: 2497

Re: Total Stock Market Fund that pays ~3% Dividend

Yes, a GRAT. Not very familiar with the taxes, but dividends might help, rather than paying out sales of depressed stock to meet distributions, and keep the trust value up.
by patrick013
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market Fund that pays ~3% Dividend
Replies: 12
Views: 2497

Re: Total Stock Market Fund that pays ~3% Dividend

There are a number of LC indexes paying over 4%. Tickers SPYD and DTN for example. Their 5 year charts are also quite good. How that works out tax-wise will cause income to be taxed and cap gains taxed when realized. So to meet distributions req'd fully taxed income may occur while selling depressed...
by patrick013
Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13132

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

It's a common observation when stock prices go up bond prices go down, and when stock prices go down bond prices go up. I would stop you right there though if I may. It's a common *belief* that stock and US treasury bond prices are negatively correlated. It's not actually a historically strong rela...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4184

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

Just trying to get sense for whether micro or macro factors are primarily at play. Thanks! I think there are some good LC's internationally but who knows what their exchange rates are. The casino effect. Most internationals are smaller economies dependent on exports for extra profits. Not a monetar...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13132

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

This is the model's output of *expected* term premium at each of those dates, not the realized premium. Bond investors imposed a huge expected premium in '80's-90's after they got more and more severely burned by unexpected inflation from the late 60's to early 80's. That big premium went back to p...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13132

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Right now moving towards a 3 year ladder. Alot of market talk about a crash and lower interest rates. Objective is income from interest income. I don't think LT would be best but a 10 year bond yielding 4% would definitely put some income in the account. I don't think we'll see a 4% TRSY for a few y...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7841

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

I went over and opened a Fidelity account so I could see what they had to offer that Vanguard did not only to find that ll their higher yielding CDs had call provisions. That completely defeats the purpose of a long CD. There are fewer Vanguard CD offerings but they are the same as the Fidelity off...
by patrick013
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7841

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

The Fed might leave the rates as is if the market completely collapses. Rates are low. There seems to be a movement out of stocks into bonds today. My best 3 year CD ladder from Fidelity yields slightly over 3%. That 10 year Farm Credit Bank new issue still looks tempting if 4% at par is worth the e...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long term market cap tilt with simple ratios
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: Long term market cap tilt with simple ratios

So here are the questions: 1) What is your opinion on shifting market weight as I am suggesting? 2) Should I consider a 2:1 split on international between Developed and Emerging Markets? 3) As far as tilting is concerned, would you consider this a simplified approach? Backtest Portfolio Asset Alloc...
by patrick013
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7841

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

How would you suggest to compare a low risk bond fund (e.g. Treasury) with a CD - is it fair to compare the APY of the CD with the SEC yield of the bond fun? SEC yield is a measurement today, if the overall market and bond portfolio stayed the same. Drawdowns or gains may occur for a variety of eve...
by patrick013
Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FINRA sponsored SIE exam
Replies: 2
Views: 349

Re: FINRA sponsored SIE exam

reneedegutis wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:02 am

How can I reschedule the exam?
Someone at FINRA I would guess. You can retake the exam if you fail.
by patrick013
Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on allocation of fixed income.
Replies: 10
Views: 959

Re: Need advice on allocation of fixed income.

How much should be in government, high yield corporate, TIPS, mortgage backed, asset backed, foreign, emerging... by age? etc? I would buy a 5 year CD every year as the rates compare to 10 year TRSY's and are very safe investments. That does not prevent you from buying longer term if and when rates...
by patrick013
Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FINRA sponsored SIE exam
Replies: 2
Views: 349

FINRA sponsored SIE exam

Fresh Finance grads, investors, anybody, can qualify for future exams by taking this test. It does not affect the Series 65 but does affect the Series 79 and other exams.

Securities Industry Essentials Exam (SIE) | Investopedia

Securities Industry Essentials (SIE) Exam | FINRA

SIE Exam
by patrick013
Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.
Replies: 14
Views: 2678

Re: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.

I also need to take a closer look at tax implications of RMD's once hit 70.5, determine if I need to address, and best approach to mitigating if needed. Yes, you need to estimate your marginal tax rate when 70, when the tax rate will affect your tIRA withdrawals. You invest in tIRA's during your ca...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.
Replies: 14
Views: 2678

Re: just retired. need to figure out a fixed income strategy.

I have no plan for the large fixed income component. Currently I have ~10% of fixed income in Total Bond funds and ~10% in a TIPS fund. A whopping 80% is sitting in CD's and Zero's maturing in 2 years or less. I've seen some 5 year CD's at 4% already. Good for the CD ladder. A 3 to 5 year CD ladder...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Model Portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 1056

Re: Model Portfolios

35% bond index 10% intl index 10% Russell 2000 index 45% Russell 1000 index The above has captured 90% of the gain of the 500 with much less volatility over the last 20 years. Will that continue ? Who knows. It had a 10% or more portfolio loss only once. I hear more analysts wish they had a short te...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Marijuana [Stock]
Replies: 50
Views: 4643

Re: Marijuana

Indexing again is probably the way to go. The research would be to the investor's advantage. Some individual companies are luring investors with claims of dozens of operations when in fact they only have a few outlets or operations. Research would uncover that. Demand has exceeded supply and supply ...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding Portfolio Return
Replies: 8
Views: 1057

Re: Understanding Portfolio Return

Thanks, patrick013, but that calculates IRR (aka investor return or money-weighted return), which I find to be less useful. I need the portfolio return to compare against standard indices. Right, it extends the investor return a bit. For portfolio return I'd be happy with the published annual retur...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding Portfolio Return
Replies: 8
Views: 1057

Re: Understanding Portfolio Return

Here's a spreadsheet I'm kinda familiar with. It just accounts for the number of shares, contributions and withdrawals, then calc's an IRR for the ending balance which could be months or years of transactions. You would need a separate sheet for each asset class. Might help might not. https://i.ibb....
by patrick013
Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's Talk About Annuities
Replies: 11
Views: 1392

Re: Let's Talk About Annuities

An SPIA can make sense if you plan on living over 15 years or so, or contract the annuity for a specific term, say 10 years. Then the compound return is over the rate on the highest paying 5 year CD's slightly. An exclusion ratio is used so you only pay taxes on the income portion of the monthly pay...
by patrick013
Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need a financial advisor?
Replies: 12
Views: 1317

Re: Do I need a financial advisor?

I have a 401k where I work which I'll continue to contribute to. Worth about $5k. I'll start investing in a Roth also. .......................................... I've been meaning to do this for 20 years. I just want to avoid fees. If you read the Boglehead Guide you're not supposed to need an Advi...
by patrick013
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Understanding the difference in cell phone OS types
Replies: 49
Views: 2646

Re: Understanding the difference in cell phone OS types

I just bought a used Kindle just to check the news, email, not much else it will do I think. Not much power just a screen. Looked at many tablets from 7" to 10". Apple, Android, Linux OS's very common. One 10" new Onda tablet had an 8 core processor, 4G telephone capability, claims it can do almost ...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 54
Views: 2520

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

My question is what is the regulatory, or should I say paperwork burden difference between holding himself out as purchasing suitable investments (which is what he is doing) and being a fiduciary? The account agreement needs to have full disclosure. Is it a 1 time consultation or a does the advisor...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5916

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Curious that Agency 10's at par are yielding 4% today, very much in line with these averages. Agencies have an additional risk that you may not be taking into account. A lot of these are mortgage backed securities, which sell an embedded call option via refinancing in falling rate environments. Als...
by patrick013
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5916

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

The way Liquidity Preference Theory was taught to me the term premium represents lost opportunity cost. In plain language buyers should want higher interest for higher maturities as compensation for giving up their money for longer periods of time. Reinvestment risk or inflation risk has little or n...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5916

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

I haven't updated this in a while so I thought I might as well. New graph up top. No actual analysis here, just basically graphing the available info. ACM model still does not think much of current pricing in bonds (still thinks a negative term premium is priced in), even with all rates up since la...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Bond Funds or Tips Funds or Bond Ladder
Replies: 12
Views: 1520

Re: Short Bond Funds or Tips Funds or Bond Ladder

I need to have readily available investments available many suggest a Bond Ladder for this purpose CD Ladder Fidelity has 2 and 5 year CD ladders ready for push button investment. Or you can make your own for any maturity. They usually yield more than a ST Bond fund and a TRSY10. They've been popul...