Search found 2907 matches

by patrick013
Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Alternatives in the time of Zero rates
Replies: 25
Views: 2171

Re: Bond Alternatives in the time of Zero rates

Has anyone found good alternatives to holding Bonds in a portfolio. My current target allocation is 25% Bonds/75% stocks, but I am concerned that the no load index bond mutual funds that I own for 25% of my portfolio are destined to have negative returns as interest rates will have to go up from ne...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Schwab as trustee. Your thoughts?
Replies: 18
Views: 2549

Re: Schwab as trustee. Your thoughts?

You can download a trust agreement document from the Schwab website. It outlines the basic plan and various options. It probably has the direct number to a trust officer and an account officer. Both will have some responsibility regarding the account.
by patrick013
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need start using trusts, LLCs, etc
Replies: 10
Views: 688

Re: Do I need start using trusts, LLCs, etc

Over the last ten years, my wife and I have discussed our situation with four different estate planning attorneys. The first one ten years ago, was recommending a Christmas tree of different complex expensive entities. The last four we discussed our situation with, recommended we keep things the wa...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is risk often defined as volatility?
Replies: 27
Views: 1768

Re: Why is risk often defined as volatility?

Why is risk defined by most on here as volatility? Why aren't people allowed to have other interpretations of the term? I think there's a difference between observed statistical risk in SD, beta, and TR/SD, and factor risk. In APT the risk represented by a factor-specific beta coefficient which cha...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is risk often defined as volatility?
Replies: 27
Views: 1768

Re: Why is risk often defined as volatility?

A few thoughts on risk/reward. Total risk: the chance you could lose all of your investment Volatility: measures the risk of a return above or below the average Beta (price): measures price movement compared to a market portfolio Market volatility is usually caused by uncertainty, when prices adjust...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 186
Views: 8549

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

The advised portfolio isn't as confusing as some. Robo-advisors can be quite diversified in funds that are higher risk than usual. One poster says VG advised 100% stock fund a few weeks back assuming bond yields would remain ultra low going forward. Being anti-Intl I wouldn't go more than 10% in any...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which College degrees are worthwhile?
Replies: 150
Views: 9021

Re: Which College degrees are worthwhile?

Why not teaching. Most are making reasonable salaries and good
job prospects. General education studies req'd and master's degree
not req'd unless teaching at the college level. But there's always
night school to do that.
by patrick013
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Returns and Optimism
Replies: 0
Views: 207

Historical Returns and Optimism

Historically profitable years outnumber nonprofitable years 2.4 to 1. So in a low growth period what will happen after the crash that may or may not come ? There's still alot of work to be done. https://mossvw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mVOgVoVclbZoqh6c5bRL8MzigfUC2EhFlpdpLhZvS-wwAPG064B8XcdXV3YFSOyv8YYLLR...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7065

Re: I think I need a new computer

Windows 10 automatically defrags the hard drive so you don't need to worry about that. That's one of the reasons I left Windows and went to Linux. Even now tho excessive writes are possible especially for a SSD. Not sure what this even means. You can easily turn off the automatic defragging. And Wi...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7065

Re: I think I need a new computer

jbourne99 wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:50 pm

Windows 10 automatically defrags the hard drive so you don't need to worry about that.

That's one of the reasons I left Windows and went to Linux. Even now tho
excessive writes are possible especially for a SSD.
by patrick013
Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio [new thread]
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio [new thread]

I've struggled in the last several months in how to justify investments in Bonds. The returns are small to none. I've researched different approaches in investing in dividend stocks and came across an article about high value dividend funds. The 3 I've chosen appear to be very solid investments, bu...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio [new thread]
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Help me Built a Dividend Growth Investment Portfolio [new thread]

In a low growth economy utility dividends are a defensive investment. In a growth economy certain dividend indexes are excellent tilts with 10-20% of AA. Can they support consumption ? By reinvesting dividends and selling older shares when needed capital gains occur and withdrawal taxes are reduced....
by patrick013
Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique on AA
Replies: 50
Views: 2455

Re: Critique on AA

50% US total stock VTSAX 10% US small cap value VSIAX 30% Total international VTIAX 10% US total bond market VBTLX We have about low 7 figures invested still and plan on trying to max out 401ks and Roth IRAs going forward and hopefully setting aside some more once our income increases (around age 3...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7065

Re: I think I need a new computer

does reinstalling windows mean the same thing as resetting? The Windows 10 reinstall disk would return it to factory original install. Many computers don't have a reinstall disk but have a reinstall "drive". Resetting is adjusting the current install to a neutral level so there is a difference. The...
by patrick013
Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be
Replies: 28
Views: 1853

Re: Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be

Assuming the economy has half the growth it used to have and mostly from inflation, and index replacement, which could deceive us into thinking more growth is occurring than actually is, I'd guess return would show 5-6 percent return nominally with inflation being estimated at 1.5 percent forward. S...
by patrick013
Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7065

Re: I think I need a new computer

If I simply copied all important files off of my computer, then reset the computer using these steps: https://www.laptopmag.com/articles/reset-windows-10-pc would that basically take my computer back to day 1? then I could just re download and install all the programs I need again, and put the file...
by patrick013
Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for investing a large fixed income portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 1817

Re: Advice for investing a large fixed income portfolio

Whether you take some AA out of stocks or bonds an allocation to VPU wouldn't hurt. A great dividend, low volatility, and an excellent total return if reinvested. TSM may beat it but in a crash or bear market you're only stuck with a big investment in a domestic necessity, a defensive stock index. ...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11499

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

TSM estimate is likely a realizable number but Intl is very hard to predict. One big casino, both profit wise and currency rate wise. A good place for an overseas investment.
by patrick013
Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for investing a large fixed income portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 1817

Re: Advice for investing a large fixed income portfolio

Whether you take some AA out of stocks or bonds an allocation to VPU wouldn't hurt. A great dividend, low volatility, and an excellent total return if reinvested. TSM may beat it but in a crash or bear market you're only stuck with a big investment in a domestic necessity, a defensive stock index.
by patrick013
Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Allocation w/Fed projecting no rate increase through 2022
Replies: 14
Views: 1437

Re: Bond Fund Allocation w/Fed projecting no rate increase through 2022

What a weak stock market that it cannot absorb a rate increase
for several years. A short term and an Interm term fund is all
we can do.
by patrick013
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me back into Bond Fund BND please
Replies: 33
Views: 2465

Re: Talk me back into Bond Fund BND please

Regarding bonds...

Heard a news story where the FED says it may hold these
rates for 2 or 3 years. Taking gains and moving into CD's
isn't that bad. Further gains are unlikely.
by patrick013
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question re: fiduciary advisors
Replies: 2
Views: 229

Re: Question re: fiduciary advisors

Financial Advisor and Stock Broker Lawsuit Litigation Here's one article about the problem. I think investment grade products and a 2 or 3 fund portfolio help greatly. Just ask the advisor about AA, tax efficiency, retirement plan selection, and other investment priorities. Some will advise non-lis...
by patrick013
Sun Jun 07, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any credible projections out on broad, long-term changes to the economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 940

Re: Any credible projections out on broad, long-term changes to the economy?

The S&P 500 looks like it should return to FY 2019 earnings in FY 2021. This year looks like the index could be overbought and priced based on future optimism. As the market portfolio it reflects the business cycle and the state of the economy including government bail outs. Projections are never 10...
by patrick013
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yet another yield question
Replies: 50
Views: 2823

Re: Yet another yield question

https://zs2weq.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mVAcSZXawfLEGk78zl7JNEHe56ok_tywxu34hgr5ia_byGfmD2LIBO4_5drKWBoEX2sSWrVviSN8LnWDuKvLUm3_ALf9E-jVfBMh3T_yvWKeWub_ZmLL1IQdpayyGNWLh1_J5e9tRmSK3lLuryFqeESPLq7SG2LeZPgjPnMzcWEXvrjQeDX5DbxzkigOurI1zBKDj4T3n6j1dZgx3zBCpRQ?width=906&height=482&cropmode=none The above divi...
by patrick013
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16335

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

With consumer staples being thwarted by COVID, energy still being
rained out with oversupply, and financials looking at 1 trillion in
unpaid mortgages I wouldn't be surprised if Intl's ran ahead in 2020
and 2021 above the 500 index.
by patrick013
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Ed Yardeni is my June podcast guest on "Bogleheads on Investing"
Replies: 21
Views: 3057

Re: Dr. Ed Yardeni is my June podcast guest on "Bogleheads on Investing"

Ed Yardeni certainly has the experience to provide a good commentary on the economy and the Fed. His website has current charts on many historical factors. Besides the Fed watching book he has several other books available on Kindle format. Nothing better than a good Fed watching book to at least ke...
by patrick013
Sat May 30, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 16823

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Obviously from reading Swedroe's book he relied primarily on the 10 year TRSY ladder taking capital gains when they occurred. Mostly going back to a 10 year bond then unless another term had investment opportunity at the time of reinvestment. That's not obvious to me. The whole section "A Shifting ...
by patrick013
Sat May 30, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 16823

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

Obviously from reading Swedroe's book he relied primarily on the 10 year TRSY ladder taking capital gains when they occurred. Mostly going back to a 10 year bond then unless another term had investment opportunity at the time of reinvestment. The difference between YTM of 10 year and 30 year not bei...
by patrick013
Wed May 27, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 16823

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

The books all say buy and hold. But how many people sell their stocks when PE´s exceed 25 ? How many people adjust bond maturities in their bond ladders. Why play stupid, that needs to be done. People have been selling stocks and buying bonds. People have been selling bonds and buying stocks. That´s...
by patrick013
Wed May 27, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Online bank recommendations
Replies: 32
Views: 2875

Re: Online bank recommendations

Presidential Bank - checkless checking

The above is an easy account that pays 2.25%.
by patrick013
Sun May 24, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8819

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

Several companies have started using 2 passwords. One for login and the other for trading. When you make a trade or transaction you assign it a password. Probably active for just a few days. Then when finished assign the account a new "trading password". That would be used for future transactions or...
by patrick013
Sun May 24, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8819

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

Where's a weakness ? Since the code is being sent from a central location to your phone, it's subject to a number of attacks along the way. The points others raise about authenticator apps being phishable is true, but it still eliminates the man-in-the-middle attack from someone listening for the S...
by patrick013
Sun May 24, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8819

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

Have been using a token at Schwab for years. Surprised the battery hasn't worn out. If phished I think it would have to be fished by Schwab. The token and the Schwab database are the only 2 sources of the 6 digit code to use. All these other fancy devices don't seem quite as good or better. SMS code...
by patrick013
Fri May 22, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5198

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

tbone555 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:03 pm

It is hard to understand the points you are trying to make.

In a market crash there are not any points to be made.

Let's just say I don't think dividend indexes are a lost cause.
by patrick013
Fri May 22, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5198

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

Not chasing dividends is not the same as trying to be "quarantined" from them. Total return is what counts. The new ETF's from old dividend indexes that actually have better returns than the 500 have short histories. But analysts realize their potential. I'd show you some figures but I'm too lazy. ...
by patrick013
Fri May 22, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5198

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

That still leaves the other issue: that equal-weighting 80 high-yield stocks is a silly way to invest. Just for kicks, here's a comparison with two (IMO) better dividend funds since I wrote that comment . SPYD has grown from a few 100 million to approaching 2 billion dollars. Most analysts consider...
by patrick013
Fri May 22, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5198

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

22twain wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 11:25 pm
patrick013 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:34 pm
LCś may recover first.
LCś? :confused
Large Caps
by patrick013
Thu May 21, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?
Replies: 61
Views: 5198

Re: Value tilted S&P 500 fund for dividend?

No doubt some stocks are getting more of the downturn. LCś may recover first. Utilities and LCś probably the safest hopefully the downturn doesn´t get worse. Earnings not forecast to be good at all this year. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=306194&p=5084666&hilit=img#p5084666
by patrick013
Wed May 20, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.
Replies: 83
Views: 3658

Re: Efficiency or resiliency in investing, business, personal finance, etc.

Resiliency certainly has something desired. Mortgage banks with ¨unlimited QE¨ certainly have a peculiar type of resiliency. Growing businesses with limited debt and a substantial ¨operating reserve¨ always demand a higher PE. They are resilient and the numbers would prove it. Investors with 5 years...
by patrick013
Tue May 19, 2020 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How [do I figure out my investment rate of return]?
Replies: 11
Views: 948

Re: How [do I figure out my investment rate of return]?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=264473#p4226778. I weight the above for each fund account to get the IRR for the whole portfolio. Beginning fund balance or average fund balance for the year are possible to calc weighted percentage within the portfolio for each mutual fund or ETF. Th...
by patrick013
Sat May 16, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 9249

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

Apart from having a general bond AA like TBM or a TRSY ladder and some ticker USIG like I do I usually like to have some variety of ST AAA rated bonds in smaller quantities. These could be a couple AAA muni's, AAA corps, Tennessee Valley Authority, and Farm Credit Bank and GNMA's. All with maturity'...
by patrick013
Sun May 10, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3121

Re: BJJ -martial art

Isn't there any no contact schools around ? In other words competition consists of sparring like shadow boxing and can become quite intense. You can block or grab as hard as you like but any strikes have to be con-contact and awarded a point by the referee. Minimal scratches if any and any contact r...
by patrick013
Thu May 07, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"
Replies: 152
Views: 10550

Re: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"

Don't forget there are basically 3 kinds of investors. Conservative, moderate, and aggressive. Growth periods make the aggressive investor look better with no future regard for decline, deflation, even earthquake. So we cannot spend variance if and when these events occur but we can spend an increas...
by patrick013
Wed May 06, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1688

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

patrick013 - If I were to wait to sell my MM fund to buy TBM, any thoughts on what I'd be waiting for? A certain TBM price? Certain condition in the economy? An YTM or SEC Yield which includes the fund fee. The rates are so low and expected to stay low there is really no optimum strategy. The usual...
by patrick013
Tue May 05, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1688

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

Appreciate helping me understand. I have some money sitting in a MM fund and I am considering moving it to TBM as part of my fixed income money. If we have a bond fund that has an 8 year average maturity, a 6 year duration, and YTM of 1.5% we know a few things. Assuming the bond market adjusts for ...
by patrick013
Sat May 02, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Treasury (VGLT) vs. Ext Duration Treasury (EDV)
Replies: 13
Views: 1310

Re: Long Term Treasury (VGLT) vs. Ext Duration Treasury (EDV)

Any discount bond will have a greater interest rate sensitivity thru it's maturity than a bond at par or a premium with the same YTM thru maturity. So if 2 twenty year bonds have the same YTM the one at a discount would have the greater duration. If you want greater interest rate sensitivity low cou...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 8880

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

In a way it is less risky. If the largest caps start to decline it will only affect the index based on a .2% allocation. The other large caps will still perform based on their equal allocations. I think RSP lowered it's fee to .2% and EPS now has a fee of .08% for it's unique allocation. Over the lo...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 2933

Re: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?

The fact remains that the US economy is fragile and we have more information about it than the economies around the world. Good PE's come from growth or at least market optimism. The last time rates rose the stock prices took a determined step downward. The market did not see the valuations being st...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Quantitative Easing
Replies: 22
Views: 2131

Re: Help me understand Quantitative Easing

I heard a few weeks ago the Fed was going to perform what can be called unlimited QE. This includes buying defaulted mortgages from banks (yes, again), buying and selling mostly treasuries in the secondary market, and also buying and selling muni's in the secondary market. This is to ensure adequate...