Search found 2657 matches

by patrick013
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 397

Re: Question about valuation

So, are stock values not based on the intrinsic value of the company? You betcha. A stock with no earnings was a value of zero. The replacement value of it's assets could be enormous. But the assets in production have no value. A stock with earnings has what I call an equity value of production. It...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best funds for dividends
Replies: 24
Views: 1994

Re: Best funds for dividends

My favorite dividend fund is DGRO, not for yield, but for total return with less volatility than the broad market +1 I'm very satisfied with DGRO. +1 here also. I use DGRO in my HSA under the theory the total return is similar to the market as a whole and in theory it should fluctuate less. I still...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best funds for dividends
Replies: 24
Views: 1994

Re: Best funds for dividends

Facts are facts. Some dividend indexes or factors compete very well with the market. With the current market uncertain changing AA could be disappointing. I was reading an article where dividend payers in the 500 are expected to have excellent total returns in the upcoming years. But I think I'd wai...
by patrick013
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2038

Re: Looking at investment asset allocation in more detail than stocks/bonds

But I’m curious - for those of you that have ventured outside of the traditional boglehead portfolio, what did you invest in/are you invested in? How did you do compared to the boglehead portfolio? How big are the non-boglehead investments as a percentage of your total investments? Would you recomm...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 296
Views: 14417

Re: Selective Colleges

There's no doubt a parental ego thing (for me anyways), associated with a college rejection. But I also want my kids to attend good schools for them - for their sake. It's frustrating to me (and other parents, I presume), when our kids get rejections from schools that seem right for them, and where...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 296
Views: 14417

Re: Selective Colleges

Anyone who has a degree whether it is business, science, technology or whatever can tell a good curriculum from an excellent curriculum regardless of whether it is private, public, small or large. T With all due respect, this is grossly wrong. Updating a curriculum is a long and difficult undertaki...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 296
Views: 14417

Re: Selective Colleges

Anyone who has a degree whether it is business, science, technology or whatever can tell a good curriculum from an excellent curriculum regardless of whether it is private, public, small or large. T With all due respect, this is grossly wrong. Updating a curriculum is a long and difficult undertaki...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 296
Views: 14417

Re: Selective Colleges

Not all students are straight A students but more typically straight B students. But their needs are the same. Not sure what you mean by needs, but not all students (even "straight A" ones) can absorb the same rigor of instruction. That's why students should be selective. They have to decide what t...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA and duration of portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 413

Re: AA and duration of portfolio

Monte Carlo Simulation = https://www.portfoliovisualizer.commonte-carlo-simulation The above is a little simpler but should be just as reliable foresight. The chance of success is the chance you will not run out of money, so I would make the mean expected return a notch low anyway. A mean forecast ...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selective Colleges
Replies: 296
Views: 14417

Re: Selective Colleges

I think school rankings are just advertisements. Anyone who has a degree whether it is business, science, technology or whatever can tell a good curriculum from an excellent curriculum regardless of whether it is private, public, small or large. There are high ranked schools I wouldn't attend and th...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 2946

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

Of I divide returns since 1950 into 8 year quantiles the lower quantiles are about 6%. Recent earnings were growing about 6% or a bit lower including dividends. So the "stat" observation is around the current low observation. Bogle's estimate included higher interest for va!uation. Back to a low int...
by patrick013
Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Domestic Dividend Funds - VHDYX vs VDADX
Replies: 25
Views: 7366

Re: Vanguard Domestic Dividend Funds - VHDYX vs VDADX

You should consider VG Utilities Fund also. If you get a good entry point it can yield over 4 % with some NAV growth. It's also a decent defensive stock in market downturns. Patrick - Thanks, but I'm not considering any "sector funds" for this bucket. Too risky for what will be a significant chunk ...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Domestic Dividend Funds - VHDYX vs VDADX
Replies: 25
Views: 7366

Re: Vanguard Domestic Dividend Funds - VHDYX vs VDADX

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287319&p=4688476&hilit=img#p4688476 Equity risk is equity risk. Every portfolio will get a steep decline in a market crash. If I bought VPU at a 4% yield I think I'd be happy today. Today SPYD is paying 4.5%. Will that decrease in a downturn. Pro...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawals During Retirement - Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly?
Replies: 51
Views: 7105

Re: Withdrawals During Retirement - Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly?

How about checking the annual returns of your 3 or 4 mutual funds in December. Make a withdrawal in January from the highest returner. Deposit that in a bank account (used to pay 2.5%) and spend as needed. RMD's just take as usual maybe a little more if those returns are high. But those are mostly b...
by patrick013
Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11536

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

It is interesting to compare and contract how the average company's dividend is treated verse a REITs dividend - which is obviously much more erratic. What happens to EPS ? operating reserve dividends research and tech dvelopment expansion of profit centers repairs and replacement debt service If a...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11536

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

It is interesting to compare and contract how the average company's dividend is treated verse a REITs dividend - which is obviously much more erratic. What happens to EPS ? operating reserve dividends research and tech dvelopment expansion of profit centers repairs and replacement debt service If a...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Sustainable dividends are paid from corporate profits. If profit declines significantly, a company with a robust dividend will have no choice but to reduce it. If investors demand a 4% yield from a stock and the dividend is cut in half, the market will cut the price in half too. In the interest of ...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

If we have different views about the intended goal of this type of portfolio, then we are going to be arguing in circles. There are some dividend indexes that have beat the market portfolio for decades after taxes. Reinvesting and withdrawing as needed. Higher total returns after withdrawal and tax...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with the Sharpe ratio?
Replies: 11
Views: 947

Re: What's wrong with the Sharpe ratio?

Return/Risk

or

Avg Return/Std. Dev.

or

CAGR/Std. Dev.
by patrick013
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

My assumption is that the goal of a dividend portfolio is to avoid having to sell shares. That is not the same thing as “to minimize worst case risk, not to maximize return.” If we have different views about the intended goal of this type of portfolio, then we are going to be arguing in circles. Th...
by patrick013
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

My assumption is that the goal of a dividend portfolio is to avoid having to sell shares. That is not the same thing as “to minimize worst case risk, not to maximize return.” If we have different views about the intended goal of this type of portfolio, then we are going to be arguing in circles. Th...
by patrick013
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

https://jiigvw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4m2vvg0WbQ0HdNa0Ex_hcfNZOkp-LoEcKxokwVJ482kPMRQN187OtyoNJ0T5VP2chqiUJHREdfK-6g9DqA1zrsNHNQgDbq23rLsBTLNeaE4YYw38tFE9BS3T8uhgTCYjqH7Pyiwvn0x8zeCHi1LHmhReK11c1EDF0gnp3KMSegFPnJgBKaM7F7len7Q0hYmTU7hsAMBCbp8zVxNR8uAh6g1w?width=576&height=113&cropmode=none My little cha...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 17925

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

So the question I'm looking at now: say one has a million and needs $30.000 per year to live off. Instead of the total return approach, why not invest all the money in dividend paying companies and just live off dividend? I think the answer is: the total return approach will likely perform better a...
by patrick013
Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors, tilting, and efficient markets
Replies: 55
Views: 3146

Re: Factors, tilting, and efficient markets

Like I said before, I don’t anticipate changing any of my personal investing as a result of this research, but I think it’s good idea to keep trying to further my education as an investor, if for no other reason than it will help me better follow conversations on this board. :D Here's some light re...
by patrick013
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth takes on the CFP Board for failure to do their job
Replies: 18
Views: 2127

Re: Allan Roth, CPA, CFP. -- A credit to the Financial Profession

Bogleheads: Allan Roth is an amazing adviser. In this thread he challenges the Certified Financial Planning (CFP) organization, of which he is a member, for their failure to report adviser misconduct which they claim to do. Another example of Allan's willingness to write, even against his own advis...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight, small, window ACs with well-designed installation?
Replies: 9
Views: 909

Re: Lightweight, small, window ACs with well-designed installation?

Check Home Depot, they have a pretty good selection. Used to be able to buy a LG5000 for $89.00 now they want $148.00 delivered. Middle of summer prices. Pretty small sizes and quietness levels. You can leave them on for weeks and barely hear most models. New place has a Frigidaire heater/air combo ...
by patrick013
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reopens Dividend Growth Fund-Press Release August 1
Replies: 27
Views: 3143

Re: Vanguard Reopens Dividend Growth Fund-Press Release August 1

It's behaving like a growth fund. Turnover is slightly high, unrealized appreciation is high...another looks good in a Roth fund. Actively managed beats the 500 but not ticker PEY for long term total returns. I'd buy it. Large cap and more cap gains than yield. Sorting the benchmark well for that it...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio recommendations
Replies: 3
Views: 296

Re: Portfolio recommendations

IRA's can mess up a backdoor Roth. Also, tax-deferred (t401k and tIRA) are best when current marginal tax rate is higher than estimated future marginal tax rate when you would be retired. You'd get all the tax credits now and then pay less tax on withdrawals in the future when retired. So the tax es...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 4890

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Of course, you'd need to load up on high-yielding stocks and other high-yield assets that are reasonably safe/reliable. Don't a lot of retirees or near-retirees do that kind of thing? What are the pros and cons? If I had any money to invest I'd look at ticker SPYD. Volume is up, AUM has doubled, yi...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 81
Views: 5436

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

For those of us considering tilts like the OP's, you are in good company with Paul Merriman. I enjoyed a recent podcast that he was featured on. Of course, he is not advocating the same portfolio as the OP, but certainly makes one feel better about sticking with any of these "popular tilts." https:...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fama
Replies: 104
Views: 11145

Re: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fama

Factors have been around before Fama as indexes were around before Bogle. They just made retail items out of them. Do the textbooks need to be rewritten again for the companies calcing six and seven factors analyses ? Another large group thinks we need them. 10, 20, and 30 years of new return data n...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes
Replies: 41
Views: 3920

Re: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes

You could take the present Russell Small Cap Value index and do an added sort on Price/Sales ratio and pick the better 100 stocks and buy them on Motif and be better off. :) The author of the second article probably does something like you suggest. I think the S&P indexes are better as they require...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes
Replies: 41
Views: 3920

Re: If you try and don't succeed blame the indexes

I have been reading that the Russell indexes are pretty badly flawed. Most that have a point of view on this mention that the Russell SC 2000 index is over diversified. There are just too many stocks to keep the quality up and compete with the other general indexes LC, MC, or SC. So if the Russell ...
by patrick013
Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total market fund vs. 1 each large/mid/small cap funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1779

Re: Total market fund vs. 1 each large/mid/small cap funds

Are there specific disadvantages to this triple US equity fund arrangement? What do people think about adjusting the dollars to the three funds according to one's age/risk tolerance/expectations, etc? It may help withdrawals when one size class outperforms the other two. https://www.bogleheads.org/...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility ETFs
Replies: 27
Views: 1323

Re: Minimum volatility ETFs

https://aujmdw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mU9e8tsO8y6AyNWSMBxeUnZnq5pINtLLBAShiqeXd1lVrXYjfqJjNPbs5mg1dQxA46OQEA9D2Hk0wkAxBnmDSH7b6HzfQcCqtW5NoMFpU6dqkL1ZoO48t1Hnis5wQnPkwA-N3msHkyrYUGUaoN5IO2aWu9JJw6xj1XJSFpAjYf8XTv8uuekylu54OP-JnYP1R8PKfD5ZAR_cfI-5rWbInhA?width=500&height=133&cropmode=none This AA and E...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?
Replies: 33
Views: 2427

Re: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?

Accordng to economic theory when stocks fall bonds rise. What theory is this? Academic theory. Not attributed to any contemporary economist or prize winner just good old fashioned common sense. Granted some economics books may be lacking but that's not my fault. :) Some schools have started to cons...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?
Replies: 33
Views: 2427

Re: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?

Accordng to economic theory when stocks fall bonds rise. I think that's true of all AAA bonds. So I usually have a wide diversification of AAA bonds. Not alot or alot of long term but enough of different AAA bonds to achieve wide diversification. Similar to an emergency fund. History has shown wide ...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA worth it?
Replies: 93
Views: 7081

Re: MBA worth it?

The disturbing trend I have noticed over the past few years is that people with no background in IT at all get a quickie MBA and jump into IT management. It's pretty bad. Not saying that someone couldn't do that and be OK (or at least not screw up too badly). But basically you're just getting a bab...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA worth it?
Replies: 93
Views: 7081

Re: MBA worth it?

MBA worth it ?

For your own personal edification ? You betcha.

For a company in different growth, ownership, buyout phases...maybe not.

OK
by patrick013
Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low volatility and minimum volatility (variance) - what are the differences?
Replies: 6
Views: 476

Re: Low volatility and minimum volatility (variance) - what are the differences?

Low volatility versus minimum variance/volatility. Where to start? ................................................. And there are a whack of others… If I minimize a portfolio's return beta I get the same answer as when I minimize it's SD for a given estimated expected return. The same optimized po...
by patrick013
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 81
Views: 5436

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

Now I know the very first response is gonna be the past doesn't predict the future, however if we don't go by past results in decisions to buy then why are we all concerned about every funds 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year and since inception earnings? Because it does predict the future to an extent. ...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA worth it?
Replies: 93
Views: 7081

Re: MBA worth it?

Like everything else the MBA is probably an overcrowded degree. Not everyplace needs one. You can't just be from an east coast school and know alot of people you have to be able to do something as well. The S&P 500 type company is the place where they can be most useful. That extra knowledge about a...
by patrick013
Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 81
Views: 5436

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

Could you share your thought process behing this proposed portfolio? Why that breakdown? I'm going to take the stance that it is a wonderful idea. It has backtested well. Otherwise I feel that each size class index has excellent companies and should be given the chance to perform equally and benefi...
by patrick013
Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Size Premium in Equity Markets: Where Is the Risk?
Replies: 2
Views: 406

Re: The Size Premium in Equity Markets: Where Is the Risk?

Well SCV is still the long term champ as far as total return is concerned.
The others are catching up.

But LC Growth has risen as the short term leader.

And surprising MC Value is the medium term winner.

All using class data from Portfolio Visualizer.

Conclusion ? They're all taking turns. :)
by patrick013
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand R vs R-squared
Replies: 15
Views: 1564

Re: Help me understand R vs R-squared

What does R-squared tell me that I can't infer from R? R-squared is for the line produced by a regression. Higher tells us that the data really supports the answer. Otherwise, data column to data column R is much better. I don't really see a reason for R-squared in this application just good old R....
by patrick013
Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand R vs R-squared
Replies: 15
Views: 1564

Re: Help me understand R vs R-squared

In regression it will tell you, based on a high or low value, how close the calc'd regression line is to the actual data observations. How close is the forecast based on the regression to the actual data line. At 60-70 the gaps are quite wide. At 90 and above the gaps are much smaller and therefore ...
by patrick013
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 24
Views: 2752

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Has anybody put the minimun volatility approach in their own insvestment strategy? Do you think it would perform better on the long run? A few statistics keepers feel the S&P 500 will reach 3500 in a few years. Meaning growth. So if we look at Value as old fashioned (possibly) do we replace Value w...
by patrick013
Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SCHX vs SPYG
Replies: 5
Views: 355

Re: SCHX vs SPYG

I used to follow IUSG which is a growth ETF.
by patrick013
Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond question: VBTLX vs VBILX
Replies: 20
Views: 1951

Re: Bond question: VBTLX vs VBILX

https://aullag.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mgjy2t1KCr_xFCvxs58edLrGU_FSS9m-p0UAAyPeis_kUYF-o7o7-1EDg4iEXktBWiaY8rSZW3cBxd1nF5peKmJbDBP_HK1K8S8_VGwBQrCpYcLjOOfcWjRXOHiGtMvNtIXoSKbYMLcF69GxdqQSHGw_wzhAI4o9ozhNYLX4sB3aA-wRcw-g_DthApWEwlmcm33TpW_WretuQworkQD7EfA?width=993&height=514&cropmode=none A picture tel...
by patrick013
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) or Nondeductible IRA -> Backdoor rIRA?
Replies: 5
Views: 291

Re: 401(k) or Nondeductible IRA -> Backdoor rIRA?

If your marginal tax rate is estimated to be less when retirement withdrawals are to be made then the t-401k should be used. But in any event retirement accounts should be maxed out Roth or Traditional. Most people can afford it, then a backdoor Roth, even using the Roth account as a possible emerge...