Search found 2725 matches

by patrick013
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration question
Replies: 14
Views: 856

Re: Bond fund duration question

If you want to be sure that your investment principal be returned to you at any particular future date you don't invest in a bond fund. ... In reality interest rates are almost always stable enough and high enough that it would be a rare case that a person would end up after some time actually gett...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return For Bond Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1476

Re: Expected Return For Bond Funds

SEC yield should be the main metric but it assumes the market will stay somewhat static. Not necessarily. We are discussing expected return, which is a probability-weighted average of all possible returns. If we assume a "somewhat static" market in estimating probable returns, then the dispersion o...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return For Bond Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1476

Re: Expected Return For Bond Funds

SEC yield should be the main metric but it assumes the market will stay somewhat static. So if yields increase you should get slightly more than SEC yield if the bond(s) are held to maturity and slightly less if yield decreases and the bond(s) are held to maturity. That's with reinvestment. Ticker E...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Corporate ladder advice
Replies: 8
Views: 1095

Re: Corporate ladder advice

Apart from the technical skills (engineering) what are you trying to manage ? Project management, research and new products, marketing, or just plain theory x - theory y management with other designers. A good management principles book should cover topics you need. Some cover project management bet...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Allocation and Related Questions
Replies: 6
Views: 440

Re: Investment Allocation and Related Questions

I sincerely appreciate all feedback on my questions above or any other issues that you would like to comment about. Thanks! Fees reduce returns and stocks increase risks. Some items from the wiki that usually help. Investment Priorities Tax-efficient Fund Placement Portfolio Allocation Models With ...
by patrick013
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

I still like MF's 7% break even return chart with one addition. After tax numbers would be useful. Assuming the portfolio is strong enough to support withdrawals until 70, from stocks or bonds, it would show the actual value added to portfolio from mixing SS into the equity AA as a potential source ...
by patrick013
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2185

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

Dividend index funds should lower the beta of any portfolio. Price beta and/or return beta. Return/std. dev. ratio is usually on the high side also. So the portfolio should have more stability and upward volatility. Ticker VPU is great for that. Factor funds include SPHD, PEY, and SPYD where the div...
by patrick013
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

My budget until 70 is set. My investment "budget" is also set. So if I needed the money sooner so be it. Waiting till after 70 is not quite twice the money monthly compared to if I took it at the earliest date. So paying taxes later or whatever isn't going to cause a higher tax bracket or major adve...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

You win. I'll pay my rent. It's actually not that much.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, the fact remains over 80 is the breakeven point, not discounted.

Depending on health is at least the major consideration. I guess taking it early is a godsend. But if you live till 88 you haven't lost the money either. I don't know then.
by patrick013
Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

But do we really want to turn this into the 23,432 th BH debate on take it now vs wait until later? Anything but debate justa FYI thing. Flip a coin. Will anyone live over 80, the breakeven point. Maybe it's a moot point. A little extra money in aggregate after 80 ? Why not take it sooner then. A p...
by patrick013
Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Well I'm waiting till 70. So my total benefits rec'd in aggregate will be more after I'm 80 all other things the same. The first graph clearly shows that. :)
by patrick013
Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 107
Views: 9814

Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Most people wait for Social Security at least a few years. Here's some figures based on rates of return.

The 1 Reason to Claim Social Security at 62
by patrick013
Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Earnings, Net Income, EPS, Preferred Dividends...
Replies: 18
Views: 1007

Re: Earnings, Net Income, EPS, Preferred Dividends...

Some added info from Fidelity's glossary. Earnings Per Share (EPS) The net income available for the common stock, divided by the number of outstanding shares. Company Reported GAAP and Non-GAAP EPS are two different methods to report accounting information. GAAP EPS are determined by following Gener...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with bond ETFs
Replies: 11
Views: 1105

Re: What to do with bond ETFs

When the yield curve is a little more normal...I like a variety. 5 year CD's (maybe even CDARS) , 10 year Trsy bond ladder, and ticker USIG for corps if any. I can see some use for a fixed term annuity and VG Muni's if in an upper tax rate. There's good buys at various times in fixed income.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unnecessary blood tests
Replies: 51
Views: 3032

Re: Unnecessary blood tests

Someone told me once that a blood test can reveal 84 things.

Now they want 85 things because some bus drivers feel relaxed using CBD.

I give up. :)
by patrick013
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious financial advisor claim . . .
Replies: 30
Views: 4651

Re: Curious financial advisor claim . . .

Is this statement correct? Does anyone know the answer to this? Can you point me in the right direction to find it?? https://kz0fbw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mPMsSbFPvE8I10zzCCi9cGOdeivI0bKB_GJ9wFKyQgAZUBvzVGS8MVW3VmCD6VfK0u17s7dV33Mh9rFKnnOn6m5suw1YXln0Kn-nnTDBPAhgJLFf9eJWCIrqALjN-mOQzOAE1cph4eX_DHRot-e...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Earnings, Net Income, EPS, Preferred Dividends...
Replies: 18
Views: 1007

Re: Earnings, Net Income, EPS, Preferred Dividends...

Could anybody elaborate on this point? Is the EPS definition provided by Investopedia correct? If yes, why is it computed that way? Is that the true explanation for the discrepancy I noticed? Any easy way to find a company's preferred dividends (preferably TTM)? Fully diluted EPS is used for all pu...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: XIRR (not IRR) spreadsheet to track a porfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 1850

Re: XIRR (not IRR) spreadsheet to track a porfolio

To test find a bond that matures in one year five months or one year seven months. Put the dates and cash flow in the spreadsheet. No other formula needed. It's very flexible. You should get the same answer as the bond's YTM. Accrued interest not included in original purchase.
by patrick013
Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trustee and Financial Advisor
Replies: 5
Views: 436

Re: Trustee and Financial Advisor

Your employer might have to register as an RIA, they might object if not in the RIA business, or at least want part of the RIA fee for allowing you to start using them as your RIA base as their employee. Check the regulations, you as their employee I'd bet they'd have to be registered also and all t...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs
Replies: 23
Views: 891

Re: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs

I don't know why everyone is always harping about diversification benefits, correlation, and factor exposures. Price beta's and SD's of these funds are at reasonable levels. They all have 100 stocks or more. If tilting the market portfolio with a factor which one would give a higher total return lo...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs
Replies: 23
Views: 891

Re: Understanding Single vs Multi Factor ETFs

I don't know why everyone is always harping about diversification benefits, correlation, and factor exposures. Price beta's and SD's of these funds are at reasonable levels. They all have 100 stocks or more. If tilting the market portfolio with a factor which one would give a higher total return lon...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Outlook
Replies: 8
Views: 1605

Re: Bond Market Outlook

Personally I think it is a better time to sell LT bonds this year and next and 2-3 year CD's are always a solid investment.

Prominent sources of info aren't saying much but here's some that do.

Experts Warn
by patrick013
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investor's Dilemma
Replies: 12
Views: 1542

Re: Bond Investor's Dilemma

We'd have a better indicator of recession if rates had risen sharply recently it looks like.
by patrick013
Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)
Replies: 39
Views: 3142

Re: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)

Well if an advisor tried to sell you ten stocks today Chevron very well could be one of them. Pays 4.24% and has raised it's dividend for many years. SPHD and SPYD are both paying over 4% today. This markets going to crash anyway. Too many negative spreads for me. Proceed with caution. :) Are you k...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability matching, duration, and rebalancing
Replies: 8
Views: 1269

Re: Liability matching, duration, and rebalancing

However, it strikes me that it is equally important, though much less obvious, that your average duration should be no LESS than your time target either. Over time, declines in yield are just as problematic for the income investor as declines in value. If your average duration is too short, your fi...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)
Replies: 39
Views: 3142

Re: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)

Between Chevron and VPU I'd take VPU. SPHD and SPYD have potential. You only get one or two tilts why not diversified dividend index. :) When did Chevron become a utility? Well if an advisor tried to sell you ten stocks today Chevron very well could be one of them. Pays 4.24% and has raised it's di...
by patrick013
Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)
Replies: 39
Views: 3142

Re: 3-Fund Portfolio (Adding a “Dividend Stocks” bucket)

Between Chevron and VPU I'd take VPU. SPHD and SPYD have potential. You only get one or two tilts why not diversified dividend index. :)
by patrick013
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors
Replies: 71
Views: 3741

Re: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors

I understand the forum is divided between those who think the market portfolio is the most diversified and those that think it can be further diversified. I'm looking for opinions from the latter crowd; no need to voice the former point please. It could actually be over-diversified but being a mark...
by patrick013
Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors
Replies: 71
Views: 3741

Re: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors

If an investment has a low return beta you'll have all the anti-correlation a portfolio will need. A factor fund my have a beta over 1, a dividend fund less than 1, an utility fund about .25, and a TRSY diversifier fund a small negative beta. Price beta is a different number and can be less. I can't...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium
Replies: 52
Views: 3741

Re: Adjusting AA based on equity risk premium

The idea of buying more bonds during a bubble and buying more stocks after a crash is common sense, but I've yet to see a Boglehead strategy that fully incorporates it. "Rebalancing to AA does that automatically" is the usual answer, but wouldn't it be even more sensible to, say, adjust AA within a...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finance or Accounting Degree?
Replies: 81
Views: 5695

Re: Finance or Accounting Degree?

Accounting you need to know how to handle the chart of accounts and do pro-formas or if in an auditing firm do an audit program. In finance there is corporate finance which should be involved in working capital management or just sound financial management. Also investment finance where your or othe...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

... That's as weird as it gets. Strategic allocation is not really market timing. Matching duration to horizon will produce much lower yield. We can spend yield not duration. A weird idea unless rates stay low forever, locking in such low rates. Looks good short term however. This statement, implie...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

The claim that “matching duration to horizon will produce much lower yield” depends on a belief that you can predict future behavior of markets. This is the opposite of strategic allocation: it’s a tactical allocation that relies on market signals. It is market timing, by any definition. Well there...
by patrick013
Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

This whole duration mindset is nauseating to me. It's like being on a sinking ship that hasn't sank yet. I can do everything I need using maturities and YTM formulations. So I'm not one to sell on that idea. Investors who willingly choose not to match duration with investment horizon are taking on ...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

The only time you're completely indifferent to interest rates by matching duration to horizon is with a zero-coupon bond. Otherwise, you'll come out ahead overall if rates go up through the life of the bond. And vice versa if they drop. I would never match maturities to horizon. I would never match...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

Bringing these two principles together, you can probably see that the statement "(b)y going longer you take on more risk" isn't generally true. If your investment horizon is long-term, then you can only minimize interest rate risk by own long-term bonds. The common belief that you can avoid interes...
by patrick013
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors
Replies: 71
Views: 3741

Re: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors

IWF (LCGrowth) very hard to beat last bull run. VPU (utilities) for stability, low beta, and increasing dividends. TRSY ladder for low beta and needed returns due to negative correlation. The most important thing to blend with tech heavy factors.
by patrick013
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics question
Replies: 33
Views: 2826

Re: Statistics question

Wondering what the frequency distribution of returns looks like graphically. The confidence interval of the larger side would be more reliable than the confidence interval of the smaller side. Not a normal distribution so subjectively 1.5 x SD for the smaller side ? Those big drawdowns will happen b...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

You still don’t get to diversify the portfolio turnover days and reinvestment interest rate across many days of the year without taking on a major management headache of frequent ladder maturities. A rolling return ladder over the "fat" part of the yield curve only needs 4 or 5 rungs to be effectiv...
by patrick013
Sun Oct 06, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat
Replies: 91
Views: 8315

Re: Bond Investing when Yield Curve is Flat

Assuming you maintain a ladder for TRSY's in a normal market isn't it a better time to sell this year ? There's cap gains to be had and spent. In a screwy bond market like today when all rates are low what advise can be given ? TRSY's can still rise when the market deflates.
by patrick013
Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulating possible investment returns
Replies: 4
Views: 550

Re: Simulating possible investment returns

I am using NORM.INV right now, generated monthly. I've tried it out with various historical or possible values for monthly mean return and standard deviation. Can you generate a monthly confidence interval, historical correlation of returns with change in GNP, and probably be satisfied with portfol...
by patrick013
Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simulating a 10 year Treasury in ETF form
Replies: 5
Views: 583

Re: Simulating a 10 year Treasury in ETF form

Do I weight the durations or the maturities? VFIUX is as close to a 10 year bond ladder as I can find. However an actual ladder can be more flexible. Buying short or long term as the market may show in any given time period. I was going to buy over 10 year maturity's when rates reached 4%. But the ...
by patrick013
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Bogleheads - Want to Rework my Portfolio Investments/Retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1985

Re: New to Bogleheads - Want to Rework my Portfolio Investments/Retirement

You haven't read the Boglehead guide ? See the wiki for the book. Fidelity, SChwab, or Vanguard have the lowest fees.
by patrick013
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Simple Magic of Investing in a Three-Fund Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 3914

Re: "The Simple Magic of Investing in a Three-Fund Portfolio"

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=289894&p=4737268#p4737268

My first portfolio advise was 500 strips plus a CD ladder. But I stay at a 10% tilt for intl in an emerging markets fund. The 3-fund provides ample return and diversification. SPIVA confirms that.
by patrick013
Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Reason Why Factor Investing May Continue To Work
Replies: 3
Views: 658

Re: One Reason Why Factor Investing May Continue To Work

I think it's almost sector investing disguised. Several factors are high AA for tech sector. If I took stocks with growth higher than mean but with debt equity ratio lower than mean and limited sector AA to a reasonable number it would be better diversified and safer from bubbles than an extra heavy...
by patrick013
Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a good portfolio mix for a retiree?
Replies: 22
Views: 2829

Re: Is this a good portfolio mix for a retiree?

VTI - 30%. - US TOTAL MARKET STOCKS ETF BND - 50%. - US TOTAL MARKET BONDS ETF VIG - 15% - Dividend Stocks ETF VXUS 5% - International Stocks ETF I'd replace VIG with VPU for stability. LC's already have substantial foreign revenues. I'd replace VXUS with an EM index at no higher than 10% AA. It's ...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor loadings
Replies: 10
Views: 652

Re: Factor loadings

What factor loads tend to be used by factor investors? And how would one come to determine that? In a 40 or 50 year study you should be able to see the factor loads historically active. In a period forward forecast the result may be spurious or random due to the factor loads taking turns in the mar...
by patrick013
Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Management Fees [for an over-]55 Community Reserve Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 1798

Re: Management Fees 55 Community

55 community means you have to be that age or older to live here-basically no kids for the most part I've heard everything from $1500 to $5000 per month. Includes apartment or townhouse, gourmet meal, on site medical if needed, weekend martini bar, all kinds of little social events. Even a pledge r...
by patrick013
Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham fans: what did "diversification" mean to Graham?
Replies: 33
Views: 2221

Re: Benjamin Graham fans: what did "diversification" mean to Graham?

Traditional diversification is not exactly useless. Traditional portfolio management assembles a wide variety of stocks. Emphasis on sector diversification. Portfolio selection uses standard security analysis techniques. Weighting could be equal, cap weighting, or even weighted by revenue per stock....