Search found 2512 matches

by patrick013
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFP [Anyone here taken the CFP exam?]
Replies: 12
Views: 1464

Re: CFP

Can you take the CFP exam with a finance major? I thought one needs to complete 8 CFP courses (registered with CFP board) to take the exam. https://www.cfp.net/become-a-cfp-professional/cfp-certification-requirements/education-requirement The requirements for the CFP seem to be inflated. Maybe not....
by patrick013
Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 40
Views: 3740

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Someone posted recently they were rebalancing stocks due to stocks approaching historical highs recently. I'm thinking if that results in a 50-50 AA then that moderate AA is being managed in retirement. Also if that results in at least 5 years of living expenses in bond principal due laddered to mat...
by patrick013
Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

Yes there is definitely some reversion to the mean over time. There are definitely different economic climates that favor growth and value respectively. Being able to actually time them however is not an easy task. I mean as you mentioned growth has out performed for years and years now. At what po...
by patrick013
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3028

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

I think I've learned to live with volatility and limited choices regarding correlation and returns and indexes that take turns being the better index this year or this decade. Isolating factors or intl equity would tend to increase this turn taking in the former and increase off shore diversificatio...
by patrick013
Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4430

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

Growth isn't infinite but index replacement could make it seem that way. Even at zero % real growth companies that have peaked and falter are replaced by companies that have a better place in the economy. As Sears declines Amazon, Walmart, and a few others benefit in fresh markets. Overproduction, e...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Converting to BH philosophies...suggestions?
Replies: 10
Views: 1117

Re: Converting to BH philosophies...suggestions?

Tax-efficient Fund Placement

I would try to place funds according to the above.
by patrick013
Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your one favorite fixed income for retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 5310

Re: What is your one favorite fixed income for retirement?

More or less favor the idea of a 5 year CD ladder where 5 years of living expenses at least are accounted for. Adding to that a 10 year TRSY ladder if AA permits. Don't live in a high tax situation so muni's do not seem like much help. Overall AA would be moderate. If interest rates were more normal...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "dividend preference anomaly"
Replies: 183
Views: 8322

Re: The "dividend preference anomaly"

But after the dividend, it will always be behind what it would have been. Pay a $3 dividend and going forward, you will always trail the $3. Could be higher, but would have been higher by the dividend amount had it not paid one out. The "equity value of production" would be the primary basis on the...
by patrick013
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "dividend preference anomaly"
Replies: 183
Views: 8322

Re: The "dividend preference anomaly"

Why invest in certain dividend indexes ? People have made money doing so. Why not invest the dividends for compounding and when cash is needed sell shares and pay less tax like that ? https://kz1qkg.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mXfTugUlQ63YwgZqYRhmpoeEKXXl_ypn9V5pfoQEdGCUjIUfvj8D78b17r0IobhlA_UWA7cDi1cQjct_v...
by patrick013
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: high dividend investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2452

Re: high dividend investments

The dividend funds he uses aren't the best. Pick the 50 highest dividend yielding stocks from the S&P 500 and weight them by yield or equally and historically over many decades they have beat the total return of the 500 by close to 2%. I have to laugh at that statement because you and I both know t...
by patrick013
Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: high dividend investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2452

Re: high dividend investments

And they never use the right indexes in any of those counter studies......so most of what is there is just a bunch of verbiage, again. Well, for the ERN link there are parts 30 and 31 along with the comments section. He effectively addresses the riff-raff bevy of dividend lovers that hated his writ...
by patrick013
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: high dividend investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2452

Re: high dividend investments

I'll put these new links into this thread and promise to use them again in the future. They come from a thread on the Early Retirement forum. First, the "spend dividends only" strategy is debunked https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-mystery-of-dividend-preference-and-the-spend-dividends-only-strate...
by patrick013
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this weed in my lawn?
Replies: 34
Views: 3444

Re: What is this weed in my lawn?

Agricultural Vinegar is Non-toxic, pretty cheap, works better than those chemicals. Most people would prefer a solution other than a variety of chemicals. If I squirt my dandelions with a bit of orange juice around the bottom near the roots in a few days they fall over dead. The roots just can't di...
by patrick013
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this weed in my lawn?
Replies: 34
Views: 3444

Re: What is this weed?

Try a small amount of coffee. Enough to wet the roots. If that doesn't work try a small amount of grapefruit juice. Plants usually hate anything liquid except rainwater.
by patrick013
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 63
Views: 5020

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

When everybody stops talking about it that's when the big crash will come.

That's what happened in '87. Only one or two people predicted anything like it.
by patrick013
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 63
Views: 5020

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

Actually we are looking at zero real GDP growth. Flat revenue growth for the major indexes. Uncertainty as to what the base interest rate should be. Indexes maintaining valuations and business activity at zero percent growth. Bond prices rising causing an inversion. In light of the above any bad new...
by patrick013
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Vanguard Dividend Fund to pick?
Replies: 47
Views: 3068

Re: Which Vanguard Dividend Fund to pick?

I am looking between two funds currently to purchase for my 2018 Contribution into my Roth IRA. My views are a little radical. I think dividends are a valid separate factor and several fund providers are taking this view. When I convert my tIRA someday it will include ticker PEY, SPYD, or SPHD. The...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 30, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed-income strategy; various goals
Replies: 16
Views: 1757

Re: Fixed-income strategy; various goals

I have several "placeholder" CDs at Mountain America Credit Union. They have small balances now, but can be added to at any time - early withdrawal penalty is large, though, so would want to hold until maturity. They mature in 2.5 to 5 years and have rates of 3.35% and 3.51% APY. With those rates I...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3788

Re: Age in Bonds?

Is age in bonds such a bad idea? I'm not sure how I'd handle a big drop in my savings once I hit retirement. Age in Bonds developed at a time when interest rates were much higher. Easily twice as high. Low rates always make decisions harder bond wise. Age in Bonds stop at 50 seems like a good idea ...
by patrick013
Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 11261

Re: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

I think the emplasis should be on the reliability of the facts, prices, and returns. When the 500 was developed in 1957 thru index selection and cap weighting evidence became known the index would be reliable. Several decades later the 500 was in the top while other funds in the top were there for a...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs Total Return
Replies: 52
Views: 3756

Re: Dividends vs Total Return

I think on a long term investment in taxable after tax calc's............ If you have one of those S&P dividend indexes with only 50-100 stocks yield or equal weighted indexes and the before tax total long term return is 1% higher than TSM for example, your long term return over TSM will be .67% hig...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8257

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

When something happens writers jump and love to have something else to toot their horns at. An inverted yield curve, oh good. But other indicators are still positive, but what about zero real growth ? Here's a short but seemingly fair article. Potential recession signal: A key 'yield curve' has inve...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8257

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

I understand it is unusual for short term bonds to pay more than long term bonds, but why is this such a negative occurence? Why does this indicate a recession? Color me confused. It happens about every ten years. People are aware of potential stock declines and flock to bonds causing price increas...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good question about selling losers and keeping winners
Replies: 10
Views: 883

Re: Good question about selling losers and keeping winners

I have a lot of uncertainty in this. I don't like TLH because it means I have losses. In some cases it's OK like selling at year-end and buying a small cap fund. If I buy a stock and sell it at 20% it goes up to 40%. If I sell at 40% it goes to 60%. If I don't sell at 60% it drops to 10%. Market ti...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8257

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

First sign of a real problem, companies are no longer able to obtain financing. We are no where near that, not even close. There is substantial liquidity available in almost all regions of the globe. Second sign of a real problem, 30-50% unemployment, we are no where near that. Last time we had a p...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A passage and question I have from A Random Walk Down Wall St.
Replies: 13
Views: 1886

Re: A passage and question I have from A Random Walk Down Wall St.

Regarding my own situation, I currently hold a stock that is down 50% from where I believe I should have sold it. Further info regarding the above quote will be essential to my understanding and deciding what to do with this stock.0 In the future, and a strategy indirectly related to this, try a st...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8257

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

To keep it actionable, how would you react to this? For me, it's a reminder to ensure that your chosen asset allocation is one that you are comfortable with. This inversion predicts a recession. To me that means to sell out 100% at the high current stock prices or do absolutely nothing like the tex...
by patrick013
Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 45
Views: 2561

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

50/50 TSM/Utilites appears to offer better diversification and risk adjusted returns than 100% TSM. Try this : https://kz3bjw.bn.files.1drv.com/y4mCDPVhTP6WeofInPj7InqaT1ZsIf5BtEMRQcqHLZ_SgYzymyBzGtSXaG3428oGzV8WegSdkMKDQWSm3eb2VCn8Nh6vtPVGjaGUQEvO1PKvm_0lP120Ma0dEVzhk36VFbZG3i48yW_u98q3Siny6ZnwD_K...
by patrick013
Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Robo advisors!
Replies: 38
Views: 3013

Re: Robo advisors!

Even Fidelity has a robo advisor (Fidelity Go): https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/fidelity-go-review/ Most robo's don't reduce risk but just add funds because they have nice total returns sometimes. Others add funds that are not investment grade because they have nice total returns sometime...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Opinions on a Masters in Information Systems & Business Analytics
Replies: 17
Views: 984

Re: Your Opinions on a Masters in Information Systems & Business Analytics

My 2 cents is find some volunteering experiences where you can hone your IT skills. Or find some passion project to expand your IT skillset.. This is far more efficient and fun than wasting a whole year or two on boring and mostly irrelevant IT classes. Most any niche topic in IT you can learn on y...
by patrick013
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!
Replies: 34
Views: 2939

Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

It appears to take ordinarily five or six years for public confidence to go from the point of too little hope to the point of too much confidence and then five or six years more to get back to the condition of hopelessness. This makes a very good showing for the ten year theory, and it is supported ...
by patrick013
Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason to avoid a 33% large/mid/small cap portfolio in this scenario?
Replies: 9
Views: 792

Re: Any reason to avoid a 33% large/mid/small cap portfolio in this scenario?

On my side, I am considering a 3-fund portfolio with approximately 33% large/mid/small cap allocation. The rationale is to capture the small/mid caps which only make up approximately 15% on VTSAX. I am willing to tolerate the large swings that comes with it. Although the LC S&P 500 is generally con...
by patrick013
Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did you diversify companies when buying annuities? Which companies are safest?
Replies: 9
Views: 671

Re: Did you diversify companies when buying annuities? Which companies are safest?

Familiarize yourself with the state guaranty association rules and limits in your state. They are at least as important as financial strength, maybe more important. Insurance law is state law. The laws follow a consistent pattern but are different in every state. This is confusing. In Illinois the ...
by patrick013
Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 13747

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

Profits Market Share Stability Maturity (lower growth rate) Just because the company pays a dividend and has the above characteristics shouldn't mean it's headed toward financial ruin. Growth isn't infinite and companies that lower dividends are replaced by index replacement anyway. So the index can...
by patrick013
Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 13747

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

What about just living off of dividends while using total market funds? If you can do this, is this "I won the game" at any age retirement? Ocassionally I read about an advisor(s) who likes to keep his discretionary money in funds like TSM. His core needs sufficed by SS, Pension, and bond income. H...
by patrick013
Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 13747

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

But as I have posted before, dividends are not magic. This style of investing works because of the underlying factors, Profitability/Quality for Dividend Growth and Value for High Dividend. The academics say that when you account for factors that dividends are neutral. Many if not most investors wo...
by patrick013
Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 13747

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-the-beauty-of-simplicity-the-sp-500-low-volatility-high-dividend-index.pdf?force_download=true See exhibit 10 and 14 above. Dividend indexes that beat the 500 generally have 50-100 stocks and are yield or equal weighted. Read something by O'Shaugh...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 13747

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

Dividend indexes that are equal or yield weighted are very competitive with the market portfolio, even after taxes, and especially in a Roth.
by patrick013
Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA
Replies: 101
Views: 6345

Re: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA

Someone somewhere in this discussion posted a link to a good site on SPIAs. Now I can't find the link. I'm not talking about www.immediateannuities.com. I know about it. The link was to something similar that I didn't know about. Does anyone know the site? Guaranteed Income Estimator But read betwe...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA
Replies: 101
Views: 6345

Re: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA

So a lifetime SPIA can pay well but I think a set term for 10 to 20 years could also pay well like a long term CD but hopefully a better rate. The rest of your AA still in equities as the SS payments and the SPIA payments covering expenses. For a set 10 year term the SPIA paid 2.17% before taxes. K...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA
Replies: 101
Views: 6345

Re: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA

So a lifetime SPIA can pay well but I think a set term for 10 to 20 years could also pay well like a long term CD but hopefully a better rate. The rest of your AA still in equities as the SS payments and the SPIA payments covering expenses. For a set 10 year term the SPIA paid 2.17% before taxes. K...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA
Replies: 101
Views: 6345

Re: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA

What are your thoughts? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=264339&p=4220837&#p4220837 If I bought a SPIA today for $156,435 with $1000 per month payments to start Jan 2020, when I would be 69 years old, my IRR after 15 years is 1.72% before taxes, and my IRR after 20 years is 4.29...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $50,000 executive MBA at a state school or $5,000 MBA at a regional school?
Replies: 46
Views: 4038

Re: $50,000 executive MBA at a state school or $5,000 MBA at a regional school?

The two schools I’m looking at are MSU for the eMBA program and Eastern Michigan for the traditional MBA program. What do the course lists look like comparing the two schools ? Unless you are interested in which one has the largest student fraternal organizations for networking. I've suggested this...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus
Replies: 38
Views: 3004

Re: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus

Portfolio Visualizer is a grand pragmatic tool but as usual some hidden actions are never revealed. Monte Carlo also has the same hidden actions never revealed. Rebalancing - annual usually I presume, but before or after withdrawals Withdrawals - equal between funds or highest return to lowest retur...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Besides Equities & Bonds what other investments appreciate in value / provide passive income?
Replies: 2
Views: 437

Re: Besides Equities & Bonds what other investments appreciate in value / provide passive income?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=269598&p=4324014&#p4324014

The above is pretty complete apart from general indexes. You could buy a yacht or breed horses I suppose, or collect art treasuries, but not very Bogle-like. :)
by patrick013
Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things you should know about minimum volatility investing
Replies: 3
Views: 608

Re: Things you should know about minimum volatility investing

from Robeco : As a result, the name of this new emerging investment style evolved over time from ‘minimum variance’, or ‘minimum volatility’ to ‘low volatility’. I think the low volatility comes from high earnings quality. Earnings not full of surprises, well predicted, stable, and somewhat rising ...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two-Fund & Three-Fund Not Diversified Enough for Large Investments?
Replies: 26
Views: 3173

Re: Two-Fund & Three-Fund Not Diversified Enough for Large Investments?

Assuming AA was equal and reasonably kept that way the below expansion of 2 or 3 fund portfolio could make sense regarding withdrawals primarily, for a few hundred thousand or a few million portfolio. Haven't discovered the computer to backtest this satisfactorily but I think withdrawing from the "b...
by patrick013
Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowledge priorities for new investors
Replies: 12
Views: 807

Re: Knowledge priorities for new investors

I've been trying to group all of the knowledge a "perfect" investor would need to know in "knowledge groups", if you will. So far I have identified groups like: You're asking for a finance degree in a couple of books. Perhaps get a second bachelor degree from your favorite school or a "certificate"...
by patrick013
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 42
Views: 3934

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

I don't spend alot of time exploring factors but have the factor models evolved down to being just conceptual tools for finance major to study after becoming pragmatic statistical indicators ? From marginality it seems they suffer from the limitations in predictability that can cause. But for a mode...
by patrick013
Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond pricing theory
Replies: 11
Views: 788

Re: Bond pricing theory

High demand high prices, low demand lower prices. Today spreads are lower than average and the observation would be high demand then and sales volume increasing. Treasury term premium estimate If anyone has a reading list to help me with bond theory, feel free to put the title in your response. ...e...