Search found 3581 matches

by BlueEars
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

VTAPX is an interesting thought. Thanks.
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

... That's 21 bp for 3.2 years on the treasury side, or 6.6 bp/year. That's 68 bp for 3.6 years on the corporate side, or 18.8 bp/year. So I've kept my intermediate corporate fund, but I've moved to short-term treasuries. I don't jump back and forth based on interest rate forecasts, but I will move...
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

I haven't seen anything besides the Swedroe mention. He had said that DFA used this but the manner they used it was not discussed. I've tried various schemes with Treasury data but never found anything that I felt was worth it. Looking at that chart of sorted slopes above, if I take the years that h...
by BlueEars
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

It occurred to me that I could sort the data by the slope (bp/yr on right axis). Below is that sort. Ignore the 1944-1953 zeros which appear in the chart. The arrow points to the beginning 2018 slope of 11 bp/yr. https://s6.postimg.cc/tkon09xvl/Capture.jpg It seems the slope effect is not all that s...
by BlueEars
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

Thanks Mega317, I was really focusing on the slopes data. The comments at the end were a bit of speculation and for this forum might be taken the wrong way i.e. might be seen as ad hoc timing. I try to stick to the broad historical data mostly. My "neutral" position would be to have more intermediat...
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 979

To extend out maturities or not?

I've compared 3 investment grade bond funds. There are: VUSFX Ultra Short Term........Sec yield = 2.53%, avg maturity = 0.9 years VFSUX Short Term IG...........Sec yield = 3.17%, avg maturity = 3.2 years VFIDX Intermeditate Term IG..Sec yield = 3.59%, avg maturity = 6.0 years I calculated the slope ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9053

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I charted this data (mostly from Simba) for my own understanding but it might help some here. https://s6.postimg.cc/jc753w04x/Capture.jpg Also I wanted to see how the choice of short term (ST) or intermediate term worked out with particular attention to the rising rate period of 1950-1982. Choosing ...
by BlueEars
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9053

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

One note is that ther was a Federally imposed interest rate cap in the 1940s that deliberately was under inflation. It’s not how bills would have performed without that cap. It’s certainly a risk, but is a confiscatory risk rather than an inherently inflationary one. Good point, one that I'd forgot...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 14
Views: 2142

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

... I will be interested to see what happens to Vanguard's Investment Grade Bond funds now that Nassour has left. This fund is still a Medalist despite its manager change, but has been downgraded to Bronze. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade navigates the corporate bond market with a risk-...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 14
Views: 2142

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Agreed that it has been shown that Gross was not the only contributor at PTTRX and that his leaving did not seem to hurt the fund in a major way.

Gross's current fund has quite a different mandate then PTTRX so maybe should not be compared to it.
by BlueEars
Sun May 27, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet
Replies: 44
Views: 2719

Re: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet

golfCaddy wrote:
Sun May 27, 2018 12:59 pm
I have an iPad and have been disappointed. It drops wifi randomly. This seems to be a common problem on iOS devices.
I've had no issue like this in a wide variety of environments. Maybe the signal strength is weak?
by BlueEars
Sun May 27, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet
Replies: 44
Views: 2719

Re: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet

Went from Nexus 7 to iPad. Took awhile to get used to it and am really happy with the larger screen size. I agree that one might want to load the Google apps on it. You can cluster apps into one icon for organization.
by BlueEars
Sat May 19, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2736

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

I could imagine extending out on the yield curve if: 1) You are paid to do so based on something like 20 bp/yr 2) or there is a significant falloff in the U.S. Leading Index Regarding #2, one wants to be in intermediate bonds if a business slowdown is coming. The Leading Index series only covers abo...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

I've had a positions in both VFIDX (Intermediate Term Investment Grade) and VFSUX (Short Term Investment Grade). So in light of this conversation I wanted to look at how the start of the year spread of SEC yields between VFIDX and VFSUX suggested that year's return. Here is the chart: https://s7.pos...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

... I guess if one wants to manage across the yield curve it would make sense to shift assets from one fund to the other. I don't see why one would expect someone to manipulate an index to do that. I didn't say anything above that shows I expect the Total Bond Mkt fund to be changed or any index ma...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

I would think one would want to manage duration in one's fixed income part of the portfolio. Thoughts? Other than not being way out of one's ballpark, why would you want to manage duration? It would be a very extreme and peculiar case where any purpose an investor has would be highly sensitive to t...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

Also, in case you haven't noticed, some experts are saying that the Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index is too risky because the duration is increasing, and others are saying it is becoming too conservative because the percentage of government issues in it is increasing. Shrug. I think the risk ret...
by BlueEars
Tue May 08, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

Nisiprius, I'm wondering if your analysis allows the stock component to dominate too much. After all, who cares if stocks are on a tear? :happy Perhaps a better choice is to imagine $100K in bonds and see how the 2 fixed income portions compare in dollar terms? This might show how sensitive that wil...
by BlueEars
Tue May 08, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2630

Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

There was an interesting article by Ben Carlson recently: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/05/the-bond-market-is-getting-interesting/ He mentioned that the Total Bond Market index has increased in duration over recent years. Going from an average of 4.8 and now up to 6.1 years! I think that woul...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 924

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

The "Fund Distributions" section for VFSUX states this: Each Fund distributes to shareholders virtually all of its net income (interest less expenses) as well as any net short-term or long-term capital gains realized from the sale of its holdings. Each Fund’s income dividends generally are declared...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 924

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

It really depends on which bond fund you are asking about. The details are in the prospectus. With VFSUX and VBTLX/VBMFX one will get a pro-rated share of the dividend. With VSCSX (and some others), one will not get a pro-rated dividend, so they will lose the dividend, but the dividend is included ...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 924

Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

Will I actually "lose" the accumulating distribution if I sell before the end of month? I thought that the market arbitraged this so that there was no timing issue. In other words, I thought the NAV adjusted throughout the month (assuming no interest rate or other changes which is not generally true...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1831

Re: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?

In recent years I've been using VPW but have not used that percentage suggested because we didn't need it even with vacations, house improvements, etc. So that unspend money is tucked away in a "reserve" for future years (like this year when we do a kitchen remodel). When I started using VPW I looke...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4671

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

Posted this in another thread but will also mention it here. Comments welcome. We are done near 1950's rates now. Here is the data from the SImba spreadsheet comparing returns of intermediate versus short term Treasuries. The red oval is that rising rate environment which was as irregular up and we ...
by BlueEars
Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3064

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

I consider short term bonds to be a cash equivalent substitute. With cash you lose to inflation over time. With short term bonds you may or may not come ahead of inflation. At least with longer bonds if held for period of time longer than average fund duration you should come ahead of inflation and...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3064

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

Regarding short term bonds, they did better then intermediates in the last period of rising rates 1954-1980 or so. See my thread some months back on this: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=234213&e=1&view=unread#unread
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3064

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

Thanks Doc. I recall Swedroe saying DFA looked at the yield slope and tended to buy further out when it was more steeply sloped. I've tried various algorithms with this simple idea using Treasury data. An example would be to increase duration if one got >25bp/year for it. But never came up with anyt...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3064

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

I use the DFA 5-year global fixed income fund duration as a guide. Right now it's at 3.8 years. For the lower end of my guide range, I use the IFA (an investment advisor company) bond portfolio (four DFA funds) overall duration, currently 2.4 years. A retiree, more concerned about inflation, might ...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock/Bond Ratio Determines Risk: Flawed Thesis?
Replies: 34
Views: 2803

Re: Stock/Bond Ratio Determines Risk: Flawed Thesis?

I think Buffet was referring to a 30 year timeframe and long bonds versus stocks. If this is the case, many on this forum have misinterpreted the guy and wasted a lot of ink. :)
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1356

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

I only compare VG funds which admittedly is pragmatic and not the whole picture if you use other funds/etfs. My data shows that over 25 years MV has done better then SV. Before VG had a midcap value offering (started in 2009) I have used the msci index to compare these. For example: From June 1992 t...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6850

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-shouldnt-panic-over-falling-bond-prices-2018-02-13 This is the main point “Since 1993, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index, dominated by government and investment-grade corporate bonds, fell 1.2% on average during months when yields increased by...
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1356

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

I have over weighted vmvax (MCV) for years. Very recently I moved all my vsiax (SCV) to it. The reason is simply better performance over extended time periods.
by BlueEars
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 45036

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Of course the outcome of monthly moving average methods is going to be somewhat dependent on the day of the month chosen. One only has to look at very sharp market declines like Oct 19 1987 (something like a -20% decline on that Black Monday). Selecting a mid-month day might well give a different ou...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 38
Views: 4224

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

One thing I track is the spread between the 10 year and 3 month Treasury. At the end of January 2018 it was 104 basis points. The median from 1987 to now is 183 bp.

So it's anemic. But I guess this is not necessarily a good indicator of forward yield differentials.
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?
Replies: 34
Views: 3677

Re: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?

George, you are right on. One can run VPW for that period and see that the AA didn't make much difference. With current low real rates in bonds and high PE's in stocks, could we see a similar bad paper asset class return period? I don't know the answer, just hoping not. But I do remember watching Wa...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

Here is another theory. Bond investors have been enjoying high returns since about 1980 because rates have trended down. But we are at the end or near the end of that gift. In the future bond investors will need higher real rates because capital gains (due to declining rates) will not bail them out....
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3204

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

If I look at the VG growth minus value indexes, they are nowhere as extreme as in 2000. In 2000 we had high real rates. But we could still see a major crack in the markets as in 1962 not associated with a recession.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

saltycaper wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:40 pm
I don't think so, not in the near future at least. The flattening curve does not look promising. Something very unexpected would have to happen. I do hope I'm wrong though and would welcome 2% real on the 10-year.
That TIPS chart shows a flattened state in 2005 with rising rates.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

lack_ey wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:26 pm
Do you mean ever, as a central tendency, in the near future (few years), or what?
I guess this question refers to maybe the next 5 years or so. Definitely not to 15 years out.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

In the past bond real yields for 5 year and 10 year Treasuries averaged 2.3% . This is according to Larry Swedroe for the period 1926 - 2010. The current 10 year TIPS are at 0.56%. See chart below for some history on this. I'm wondering if it is pretty likely we will return to about 2% on the 10 yea...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3204

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

... Tremendous events happening at that time, as I recall it: Huge fiscal and monetary policy changes [wage controls, price controls, going off gold standard], concluding a very long war [Vietnam], a massive demobilization [result of said conclusion of war], the Arab Oil Boycott [the aftermath of Y...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 3204

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Nice article. Left out the fact that in June 1973 the yield curve inverted. Maybe some Wall Street types would have seen that as a red flag? I was hired from college in August 1972 at a midsize company called Hewlett Packard. It did OK partly because of the new handheld HP 35 Scientific Calculator. ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 10565

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

To me the issue is at what slope rates rise. Dalio thinks it will be faster then consensus.

Short term investment grade or intermediate bonds? I have both.
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 7108

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Also, it is not clear to me what kind of stocks he used in 1994. The paper just says common stocks. And he uses date from Ibbotson Associates, "Stock, Bonds, Bills and Inflation: 1992 Yearbook" (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 1993). . I'm pretty sure SBBI in 1992 was U.S. stocks. Yes, it was. As I m...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 7108

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Looking at the OP's link brought back memories of the year 2000. That was a wild time in the markets and the media. At one lunchtime I was sitting across from a guy who was retiring. I asked him what his withdrawal % might be and he said 7% . Sounded a bit high to me but I didn't know enough to ques...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?
Replies: 13
Views: 1100

Re: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?

Here in Northern California it is recommended to wait until the danger of frosts passes. That might be mid-February at the earliest. I'm kind of interested in this because we have a drip water irrigation system. Using a fertilizer like Osmacoat which last for 3 to 4 months, I'd prefer to catch a li...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 2082

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

The last period of rising rates was April 2004 to June 2006. 5yr Treasuries rose from 2.8% to 5.1%. Here are some CAGR's for that period: VFIUX 0.6% intermediate Treasury VFIDX 1.2% intermediate IG VBTLX 1.4% Intermediate total stk mkt VFIRX 1.2% short term Treasury VFSUX 1.8% short term IG
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 2082

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

I had a chart of comparing intermediate and short term Treasuries during the rising rate environment of the 1950-1980 period.
See: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=234213&e=1&view=unread#unread
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?
Replies: 13
Views: 1100

Re: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?

Here in Northern California it is recommended to wait until the danger of frosts passes. That might be mid-February at the earliest. I'm kind of interested in this because we have a drip water irrigation system. Using a fertilizer like Osmacoat which last for 3 to 4 months, I'd prefer to catch a lit...