Search found 3817 matches

by BlueEars
Fri May 01, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 255
Views: 56279

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I thought Dual Momentum made sense. Got burned between December 2018 and April 2019 with it - it gave up lots of ground to the market. Looks like it's doing the same right now. I think we're just too drunk right now for this sort of thing to be a good idea. Momentum works off sentiment, and in norm...
by BlueEars
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 123
Views: 37233

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

My short term TIPS expired a few days ago and I was going to go into Treasury MM. But it's closed. I do have some Treasury MM in another account.

So I decided to put the TIPS money into VFIRX, short term Treasury. Seems like a low interest rate risk right now. Any contrary thoughts?
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20264

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Are TIPS rates rising because of potential deflation down the road? If I understand TIPS inflation factor correctly, deflation can eat away at the inflation factor . You are guaranteed to get your principle back which I think corresponds to an inflation factor driven below 1.0. Now if the inflation...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20264

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Are TIPS rates rising because of potential deflation down the road? If I understand TIPS inflation factor correctly, deflation can eat away at the inflation factor. You are guaranteed to get your principle back which I think corresponds to an inflation factor driven below 1.0. Now if the inflation f...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20264

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I was in TIPS in 2008 when the iliquidity issues emerged. I never saw a really good explanation which would include the investors (institutions?) that were needing liquidity. There were threads on this back then. Swedroe had been in the TIPS discussions but he didn't anticipate those liquidity issue...
by BlueEars
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Looking to Guarantee Money Market Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 913

Re: Treasury Looking to Guarantee Money Market Funds

To me there is 3 choices at Vanguard for money market funds (with current SEC yields): 1) Federal MM (the settlement fund) VMFXX, 1.17% 2) Treasury MM, VUSXX, 1.28% 3) Prime MM, VMMXX, 1.39% I expect all 3 of these to have much lower yields in the near future. Anyway I currently hold #1 for cash. I ...
by BlueEars
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 4030

Re: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates

I am looking at a few funds and trying to choose for new cash: VFIUX intermediate Treasury, yield = 1.13% VFIRX short term Treasury, yield = 1.00% VUSXX short term money market, yield = 1.47% VFIDX intermediate IG, yield = 2.01% VFSUX short term IG, yield = 1.95% VMMXX Prime money market, yield = 1....
by BlueEars
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

12 month moving average US unemployment is 3.60%, February is 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm Hypothetically very nasty things could happen in the March stock market, even assuming the UER moving average doesn't remain positive next month. This vindicates my approach of only using...
by BlueEars
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

For a long time I've been thinking that posting one's investment thoughts, especially in advance of an action, is a bad way to go for me . Here are the negatives I see: 1) You get criticism from people hiding behind anonymous user names (on this forum it's really bad) 2) The critiques might effect ...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

For a long time I've been thinking that posting one's investment thoughts, especially in advance of an action, is a bad way to go for me . Here are the negatives I see: 1) You get criticism from people hiding behind anonymous user names (on this forum it's really bad) 2) The critiques might effect h...
by BlueEars
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: I put my trend following strategy on hold for one week

... Constructive thoughts from a fellow trend follower; 1) Your system is too binary. As you're aware, yes all the moving averages quickly turned negative but most longer time series signals remained positive. You could consider using a few signals which are trivial to calculate in Excel, so that y...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

The lack of civility exhibited in this thread is simply amazing to me.

I think Will made the right decision for his peace of mind by signing off from this thread.
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: I put my trend following strategy on hold for one week

... Constructive thoughts from a fellow trend follower; 1) Your system is too binary. As you're aware, yes all the moving averages quickly turned negative but most longer time series signals remained positive. You could consider using a few signals which are trivial to calculate in Excel, so that y...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Oh for some reason I had this impression the first indicator was stocks moving below their 7 month average (I.e. nothing to do with bonds). Either way, I knew this condition would be met, I just didn’t know the status on the unemployment rate condition. So one more week to know, gotcha :) From what...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I don't follow the two signals you require to switch out of stocks but I do believe you would do it at the start of the month yes? Will you be switching out for the month of March or staying in stocks for now? Just curious. My strategy would not allow me to move out of stocks unless (1) bonds' rela...
by BlueEars
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks the the OP's trend follow strategy is close to giving a sell signal in early March Unemployment has to tick up 0.1 points. The consensus prediction is no change, but some sources are predicting an uptick. It looks like the VBMFX is above the SP500 in intra-day trading in percentage terms vs t...
by BlueEars
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... The buy and holder gets what the market gives. Riding it all the way down and back up, you'll get whatever the market gives. A trend-follower, if following the wrong system, could indeed do far worse than the market. I thought the coronavirus issue today is an example of something that may not ...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Here are some comments regarding the MD method. First, I don't have the stat background to understand the underlying MD calculation. Sounds sexy though. I would check out the math more deeply if the method produced outstanding bottom line results. When I do check out a methodology I want to get to t...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the market media over-reacting to coronavirus?
Replies: 71
Views: 4820

Re: Is the market media over-reacting to coronavirus?

If this gets hold in the US it could well impact the economy. And could influence the politics in the elections with unknown consequences. Here is a graph from the CDC of what happened in 2008-2009. Note the H1N1 flu went on into the summer . https://i.postimg.cc/cLLrVcwQ/image1.jpg Caveat: I am not...
by BlueEars
Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Sounds like the first and second derivatives are positive.
by BlueEars
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Why do I feel that this is getting a little unpleasantly contentious? Perhaps it is the way these queries are worded?
by BlueEars
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I appreciate the clarification as the statement “the 7 MMA is stronger than that of stocks” has been gnawing at me. As someone who likes to know how stuff works I just couldn’t wrap my mind around how this comparison could be made. Progress. I was wondering the same thing. First, the 7 MMA is above...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... Yes, it could happen. It happened last January for my strategy. At this point, almost any rise in UER will result in it crossing above its 12 MMA. But historically, when the UER is trending upward and stocks are trending downward, stocks future performance has usually been quite poor. Can you a...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 69334

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."

It appears that Larry Swedroe has left the Bogleheads forum for good, last I checked he has not logged in since his last post on Sunday. This is a real shame but I can hardly blame him. Certain folks who I won't name would not heed my warnings and alas, he has been driven away from the forum. As I ...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... I think there is a big disconnect between my methodology and your methodology. My methodology generally starts with an idea to exploit market inefficiency, or model of the market. Then I formulate an optimization problem that maximizes the utility under this model. Then I can say that my soluti...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... tues jan 7 908 am thanks. Starts with "When AS introduces a new model..." Yes, I did look at this some more and thanks. I should look even more. What I find is that reading other ideas, even if I reject them, stimulate me to think in somewhat different ways. This at times has led to new ideas a...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Will is allocating (among asset classes, not stock/bond ratio) via a timing methodology akin to Dual Momentum. That is the sort of thing I have been doing for over 10 years using my own methods. Have you pleased with your strategy's performance to date? Yes but with caveats. The in/out timing part ...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I really think the MC discussion was getting overworked here. Did you look at the allocate smartly stuff? You had indicated the a mechanism to evaluate was needed which I believe I provided in my response. Again goes to trying to determine what's the singly best approach is a fools errand IMO and b...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I really think the MC discussion was getting overworked here.
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Using a stepped approach to moving in and out of assets might be useful but implementation can be onerous. Does one want to commit to moving in 2 or 3 steps to a different asset? And many of us have multiple accounts with different assets to move. We go on vacations, there are emergency events possi...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Did a search for "ladder" & "stepped", no results. Has a stepped sell-off approach been discussed/researched? Ie, instead of selling it all at the moment the fund crosses the 200 dma, sell 1/4, another 1/4 if it crosses the 300/500 (something lower), repeat until the position is liquidated. I think...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Below are the results from my trend following strategy in 2019. 2019 Results Total return 18.7% Comparisons VTSAX = 30.80% VTIAX = 21.51% VSMGX (Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth 60/40) = 19.37% Summary The strategy experienced a whipsaw between January and February this year. The movement out ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

If you are not concerned with 20% drawdowns but are concerned with 50% drawdowns, It is probably a better idea to just pay for that insurance with the appropriate option chain. At least that guarantees you are paying a fair market price for your insurance. Something that isn't at all guaranteed wit...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

If you are not concerned with 20% drawdowns but are concerned with 50% drawdowns, It is probably a better idea to just pay for that insurance with the appropriate option chain. At least that guarantees you are paying a fair market price for your insurance. Something that isn't at all guaranteed wit...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:44 am
sixtyforty wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:15 am
Have the returns been updated for this trend following strategy for 2019 ?
Yes, in this post.
I don’t know if you can edit the OP. If so adding a link to yearly results would be cool.
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I think presenting results from black box models is a waste of time for everyone here. I understand the desire to keep models proprietary but then one should keep the results proprietary too as they are just a tease. I have my own model but have not mentioned it except in passing early on and would...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I think presenting results from black box models is a waste of time for everyone here. I understand the desire to keep models proprietary but then one should keep the results proprietary too as they are just a tease. I have my own model but have not mentioned it except in passing early on and would ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

That video shows that Bogleheads have a long and colorful history.
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Many of the anti-market timing posters here (but not all) have not run the numbers or looked at long term studies. Some on this thread have not read the critical comments (there are many of these) or the responses and just put in their 2 cents anyway. Some of the posters do not understand what is m...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Will, how would you approach have worked in 2008? Any estimate of what the loss would have been? The UER crossed above its 12 MMA in June, 2008 . The 7 MMA of TSM fell below that of TBM in November, 2008 , which would have triggered the move into bonds. The UER fell below its 12 MMA in May, 2009, t...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Many of the anti-market timing posters here (but not all) have not run the numbers or looked at long term studies. Some on this thread have not read the critical comments (there are many of these) or the responses and just put in their 2 cents anyway. Some of the posters do not understand what is me...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... A Japanese investor who held an internationally-diversified balanced (stocks/bonds) portfolio fared well enough to retire with dignity. Hmmm...this is a good point. But what if we hit a really really bad depression, something like we have never seen in our lifetimes? Another thought, I have bee...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

... I think that the mistake of the original poster (OP) was to consider a 85/15 stocks/bonds target as a "good plan" for someone so loss-averse as the OP is. I suggest to consider, instead, adopting a significantly more conservative allocation target appropriate for a loss-averse person as provide...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121888

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Good outcome Will. It will be fun to watch this thread over the year's. I admire your resolve.
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you prefer etfs or mutual funds?
Replies: 271
Views: 9526

Re: Vanguard phasing out regular mutual fund shares?

With an ETF at Vanguard (as I understand it) you have to trade during the exchange open hours. You cannot tell a broker to "do this". Then you have to puzzle at the price movements and maybe put in a limit order and watch it filled. Somewhat more confusing, can be somewhat nerve wracking, and takes...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you prefer etfs or mutual funds?
Replies: 271
Views: 9526

Re: Vanguard phasing out regular mutual fund shares?

I advised my son to purchase mutual fund shares. The reason is that he is very busy in business and it is much easier to put in an order on the weekend, in the evening, or before markets open. With an ETF at Vanguard (as I understand it) you have to trade during the exchange open hours. You cannot t...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019
Replies: 123
Views: 7416

Re: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019

MidwestMike wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:14 am
Wealthtrack is a very good show.
This is a good idea. It is weekly and Consuela Mac asks good questions during interviews. Thanks.
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019
Replies: 123
Views: 7416

Re: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019

I think they should go back to a Friday night weekly.
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019
Replies: 123
Views: 7416

Re: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019

I was surprised tonight to hear that NBR is now history. Wow and sad. I only watched it on Friday nights. Just this week (not a Friday) I happened to watch Sue Hererra delivering what I thought was an unusually poor performance for her. Could have been her last and here I didn't even appreciate the ...
by BlueEars
Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is any one uncomfortable with their wealth?
Replies: 152
Views: 12124

Re: Is any one uncomfortable with their wealth?

NOTE TO SELF: Don't talk about how well I am doing now. It just creates envy and I admit I don't like to hear it coming from others as I am susceptible to that ugly emotion of envy too.

We Americans seem to have a love/hate relationship with money.