Search found 3488 matches

by BlueEars
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Too much house? (nervous 1st time buyer)
Replies: 57
Views: 3960

Re: Too much house? (nervous 1st time buyer)

Our first house was bought in Silicon Valley in 1975. So much depends on luck but all you have to really know is yourself.

Best of luck!
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7341

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Wasn’t the sale of 1930 a good time to buy equities? I know I was thrilled to be buying stock in 2008 when the markets were falling off the cliff. I have no idea how bonds were performing since I didn’t own any. But I can say with certainty that my position in Apple grew exponentially and recovered...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7341

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

David Scubadiver wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:34 pm
Usually doesn’t do you any good when everything is melting and you want something to buy things on sale.
Did you look at that data I linked to?

Anyway, I don't buy in a crisis as the sale might become an even better sale and then an even better sale ... example, think of the sale in 1930.
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7341

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Cash is the only thing that is stable when a financial crisis hits. Whether it is worrh having versus investing in bonds is open to debate. Certainly there is a place for cash in a diversified portfolio. Bonds usually do better then cash in a crisis. See this for details: https://www.bogleheads.org...
by BlueEars
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7341

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

This discussion caused me to check on the performance of cash versus bonds. The following chart shows Tbills which were (I believe) 1 month Tbills. https://s6.postimg.org/5jdj3moo1/various_assets.jpg And here is another one in a somewhat different format. Shows maybe a little better how various eras...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

VG gives me the target RMD number at the beginning of the year. All I have to do is insure I meet this plus a smidgen more to be safe. Generally I do all this in a spreadsheet Our RMD is set up to be automatically taking out with withholding in December - not at Vg. If I then do another withdrawal ...
by BlueEars
Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

^ Hmm. This is news to me; I agree with sport. My mom doesn't have any taxes taken out of her social security check and pays the year's taxes with her December 1 RMD. Every April, having received her "total tax" amount for the prior year, she arranges to have that same amount taken out of the curre...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

The way I interpret moneyman11's post, his mother was using the special RMD method which avoids having to pay the estimated tax earlier in the year. The SS income reporting requirement probably is not able to be included in that special RMD method. The IRS computers will be satisfied if the SS withh...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

I know about the hump and I'm on it. So our marginal rate will be quite high. Still the overall Fed tax is not too bad. Anyway, what I didn't appreciate is that one should satisfy a requirement that some SS must be withheld. That's something I've been indirectly doing through estimated taxes but usi...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

So the monthly spending picture might look like: January thru September: IRA withdrawal October thru December: Roth withdrawal December: pay Federal taxes with final RMD withdrawal from IRA Does this sound like a good strategy to take care of taxes and make things easy. Hi BlueEars, With the except...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

All the tIRA withdrawals will be RMD only. I will clear the transactions with my VG rep to make sure I understand reporting requirements... To my knowledge, there are no RMD-specific reporting requirements for us taxpayers. We get 1099-R forms same as in pre RMD years. If IRS suspects us of not wit...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

The concept of what you describe is very workable. Make sure that your tIRA provider allows you to make withholding changes late in the year so you don't get in a bind. I would designate early withdrawals as the RMD. That should clear any provider "don't make dumb mistakes" provisions. You should b...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

JW-Retired, I am just looking for confirmation or corrections, being an RMD newbie. Plus someone might have an alternate angle.
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

Two comments: 1.Once you reach the age of 70.5, you are eligible to make QCD donations to charities. This counts towards your RMD, but is not taxable. You cannot do this until you are actually 70.5. 2. You do not say who your IRA custodian is. However, Vanguard will withhold income taxes for some s...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

Re: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

What is "the sum calculated in #2"?? Also, don't forget that some of your SS is probably taxable. But yes, you can pay the *entire* Federal tax due, all at the end of the year IF it is paid in the form of "withholding", which could be via payroll withholding, or withholding from IRA distributions. ...
by BlueEars
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts
Replies: 31
Views: 1640

RMD tax strategy if only SS + retirement accounts

Unfortunately next year I have to take RMD's. We have only 3 income sources: IRA distributions, Roth's, and Social Security. We have minimal taxable accounts. As I understand it retirees can pay their taxes through the RMD and not have to bother about doing estimated tax payments during the year. It...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 132
Views: 9696

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

... When I go away for more than a couple weeks, without electronic communications and access to my paper mail, I create a web lock at Vanguard. That ensures that no one, even I, can gain access to my account until I un-lock it. Victoria Victoria, hadn't heard of this option. Do you set it via the ...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 132
Views: 9696

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

.... I'm also failing to see how someone could social engineer information for a site like Vanguard if one has set up telephone voice identification authorization. Additionally, if one has set up gibberish security questions answers, security phrases, etc., how would it be possible to socially engi...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 132
Views: 9696

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

.... I'm also failing to see how someone could social engineer information for a site like Vanguard if one has set up telephone voice identification authorization. Additionally, if one has set up gibberish security questions answers, security phrases, etc., how would it be possible to socially engi...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 132
Views: 9696

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

The OP mentioned using TMobile which is also my provider. T-Mobile now allows a complex password so it does not have to be associated with your SS number. The PW can be something like SILLY4563 and is for verbal ID only. Maybe this is all the OP would have needed to prevent the original hack. Though...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

When I started this thread, I was thinking of situations like (1) you are trying to login to your airlines app to do a checkin, or (2) you are logging into a somewhat low sensitivity site like Bogleheads. I probably did not make this clear. I'm just looking for best practice examples. Most here are ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

...If your browser is using https the traffic should be encrypted ... Does this mean going to https:Vanguard.com is relatively safe then? We typically use an Android phone, Android tablet, or an iPad to connect to the hotspot while on the road. All the cyber security issues and talks are making me ...
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Re: Questions on electronic security while traveling

Thanks, I should look into 2 FA authentication for this particular issue.

It just occurred to me that I can set the smartphone to airplane mode (no wifi or cellular) to get at passwords on Lastpass and even to enter the master password should the Lastpass app need that to come up.
by BlueEars
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questions on electronic security while traveling
Replies: 13
Views: 725

Questions on electronic security while traveling

It is common to read that hotel wifi connections (in USA or foreign) are not to be considered secure. One way to avoid security issues for some sites is to use an App that is always available on a tablet or smartphone so no password entry is required. This would work for something like Gmail. But so...
by BlueEars
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 74
Views: 17413

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Some years back there was good long term data presented on sort term IG bonds. I think the poster had a good background in DFA type investing. Anyway the basic idea was that ST IG had a good track record. Sorry I am out of town right now or would hunt that up. My current approach is to keep a modest...
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 34081

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Right and yield curve inversion can lead by several months which explains why many do not see a good correlation with equity declines. Timing is tough.
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 34081

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I think the word "momentum" is misleading for this strategy. The meat of the system consist in trading out of equities when the 1 year stock market returns are inferior to bills returns. In my mind this is closer to a yield curve inversion (2 years yield higher than 10 years) than assets momentum. ...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2516

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

gkaplan wrote:To those of you nit picking the series, I'm pretty sure Michael Connelly was an active participant in its production. In fact, I believe he was instrumental in creating it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosch_(TV_series)
Nitpicking is what Bogelheads do best.
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2516

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

In the books Bosch is a Vietnam vet. The TV series is set in the present day, and Bosch is a vet but not sure which war.
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Harry Bosch: the Amazon Series vs the novels
Replies: 47
Views: 2516

Re: Harry Bosch:the Amazon Series vs the novels

After seeing the Amazon series I started reading the books. Really enjoy them. Just read The Lincoln Lawyer (Mickey Halley) and that was great. I don't expect the TV to be like the book.
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass Premium price increasing
Replies: 32
Views: 3060

Re: LastPass Premium price increasing

... I used Excel a long time ago for my passwords. It was a hassle to use as well as to keep in sync across multiple drives so I wouldn't have a single point of failure if I lost it. At the time it wasn't very secure, mostly because passwording an Excel spreadsheet was terrible security. ... I used...
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3167

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Yes, the much loved positive tracking error.
by BlueEars
Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3167

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

One other point is that the fund vinex has a growth tilt. I'm skeptical that its roughly 40 bp/yr overperformance relative to a DM small cap blend index over the last 9 years is from active management. I suspect it is from growth beating value for DM non-US stocks during that time. I'm interested i...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3167

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Corrections added below Re: EM exposure The active managers of VINEX seem to have delivered net value over ER, but I don't think it is nearly as much as the above backtests would lead one to believe. I think VINEX has in the past invested in non-US developed markets small cap stocks. VSS holds EM s...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?
Replies: 29
Views: 3167

Re: Int'l Small-Caps: Active VINEX vs passive VSS/VFSVX?

Vinex only has about 7% EM while vfsux is at 17%. This has been one of the reasons besides performance that I use it for my SCI. Currently have 15% of our portfolio in vinex.
by BlueEars
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 3090

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

Office 365 Home for $99/year is the way to stay current. $69.99 for 1 PC/Mac. https://products.office.com/en-us/office-365-home I am still running an old version of MS Office. When I eventually decide to get a new version of the Office (Word, PPT, Excel), is a subscription the only option? I don't ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 3090

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

My transition to Win 10 went very smoothly. I have Excel 2007. No issues.

If I were getting a new system I would probably stick with Windows and Excel 2016.
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: swimming goggles
Replies: 29
Views: 2300

Re: swimming goggles

My goggles occasionally leaked. Maybe this is standard procedure for some swimmers but I had to discover this myself. I find that when I gently press in on them there is a slight suction created and water doesn't seep in. Happy eyes now. :happy
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1411

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

jharkin wrote:Well the deed is done... Wife saw this conversation and went out and grabbed me a 32GB iPad 2017 with a target coupon as a fathers day gift.

Like it so far.... I didn't realize how horibly slow and buggy the Nexus10 had gotten. This could be trouble. :twisted:
Happy Father's Day. :happy
by BlueEars
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who mixes android and iOS
Replies: 24
Views: 1411

Re: Who mixes android and iOS

... But I am getting tired of GARBAGE google tablets. Ive been through a Zoom, a Nexus, a Nexus10. All of them have had problems. stability issues, random crashing, poor app selection. The Nexus10 is in really bad shape and overdue for a replacement but I just dont see anything compelling out there...
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2703

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

M* shows that for VSIAX (small cap value admiral) the price/prospective_earnings = 17.7 .

That current VG figure is probably bogus. Here is the history I've recorded from those VG supplied figures:

Image
by BlueEars
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 7861

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Someone observed that you have to take some major roller coaster rides when investing in growth stocks. Said another way, look at some of those charts (on a log scale) for the ones you've mentioned. You will see some deep dives (AMZN took a dive in the early 2000's). Then you may look at some former...
by BlueEars
Sat May 27, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is international a momentum investment?
Replies: 18
Views: 2064

Re: Is international a momentum investment?

The performance of international funds has been surging for the last year after years of underperforming. Is this an indication of positive momentum? I may have read too many factor based investing threads! DMW I think international funds are in a momentum surge. Will it continue? I have no idea. I...
by BlueEars
Sun May 14, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28161

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I was comparing 60/40 versus 40/60 using the VPW tool and a start date of 1966 for the simulation. This is the worst period in modern history for a retirement portfolio of standard construction. It seemed to show similar results for both AA's, not quite what I would have guessed. But this nugget of ...
by BlueEars
Sat May 13, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 182
Views: 28161

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I've looked at some VPW scenarios and it seems that there is not a whole lot of difference in portfolio outcomes between 60/40 and 40/60 in really bad markets (like the period 1966 to 1980). But simulations don't seem to cover the current low real bond rates very well. So I'm OK right now with 60/40...
by BlueEars
Tue May 02, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 177
Views: 34081

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

... To avoid whipsaws I suggest to add an unemployment filter: if unemployment rate is below its 12 SMA, you stay invested either in SPX or International equities, if unemployment rate is above its 12 SMA you check the absolute momentum filter (vanilla GEM) What do you think about adding this filte...
by BlueEars
Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?
Replies: 1
Views: 638

Yelp, no way to contact them. Experiences?

I've used Yelp for some years. Wrote positive and some negative reviews. Then recently I wrote 2 reviews. One was positive and one was kind of negative. The reviews did not appear because they have cancelled my login. They claimed I had 2 logins. The one they cancelled I had for years. I don't know ...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1721

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Now, using a buffering mechanism does seem like a good thing, but the overlapping bands are really wide, and it seems to me that this would dilute the value effect. Any thoughts from mathematically-inclined folks? Is CRSP doing the right thing? Yes they are. As stlutz points out, the practice is co...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1721

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Jo, I guess in the end we all just want more money to fund our other desires. So if factors predict returns, I'm all for them. But I'm not convinced they are predictive. Maybe I've missed some presentations on the forum which show the superiority of a factor view of investing. That said, I do have a...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands
Replies: 21
Views: 1721

Re: Value/Growth indices and overlapping bands

Aside from my belief that the factor tilts are silly, if it was something you were trying to do for whatever reason, it looks like Vanguard's Small-Value is the least small (SmB) and least valuey (HmL) compared to Russell 2000 Value and S&P 600 Small-Cap Value index funds PV Link Thanks, the fa...