Search found 3562 matches

by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

The "Fund Distributions" section for VFSUX states this: Each Fund distributes to shareholders virtually all of its net income (interest less expenses) as well as any net short-term or long-term capital gains realized from the sale of its holdings. Each Fund’s income dividends generally are declared...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

It really depends on which bond fund you are asking about. The details are in the prospectus. With VFSUX and VBTLX/VBMFX one will get a pro-rated share of the dividend. With VSCSX (and some others), one will not get a pro-rated dividend, so they will lose the dividend, but the dividend is included ...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

Will I actually "lose" the accumulating distribution if I sell before the end of month? I thought that the market arbitraged this so that there was no timing issue. In other words, I thought the NAV adjusted throughout the month (assuming no interest rate or other changes which is not generally true...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1687

Re: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?

In recent years I've been using VPW but have not used that percentage suggested because we didn't need it even with vacations, house improvements, etc. So that unspend money is tucked away in a "reserve" for future years (like this year when we do a kitchen remodel). When I started using VPW I looke...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?
Replies: 41
Views: 4385

Re: Is Now the Time to Reduce Bond Duration?

Posted this in another thread but will also mention it here. Comments welcome. We are done near 1950's rates now. Here is the data from the SImba spreadsheet comparing returns of intermediate versus short term Treasuries. The red oval is that rising rate environment which was as irregular up and we ...
by BlueEars
Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2693

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

I consider short term bonds to be a cash equivalent substitute. With cash you lose to inflation over time. With short term bonds you may or may not come ahead of inflation. At least with longer bonds if held for period of time longer than average fund duration you should come ahead of inflation and...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2693

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

Regarding short term bonds, they did better then intermediates in the last period of rising rates 1954-1980 or so. See my thread some months back on this: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=234213&e=1&view=unread#unread
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2693

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

Thanks Doc. I recall Swedroe saying DFA looked at the yield slope and tended to buy further out when it was more steeply sloped. I've tried various algorithms with this simple idea using Treasury data. An example would be to increase duration if one got >25bp/year for it. But never came up with anyt...
by BlueEars
Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2693

Re: Hold Only Short-Term Bonds?

I use the DFA 5-year global fixed income fund duration as a guide. Right now it's at 3.8 years. For the lower end of my guide range, I use the IFA (an investment advisor company) bond portfolio (four DFA funds) overall duration, currently 2.4 years. A retiree, more concerned about inflation, might ...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock/Bond Ratio Determines Risk: Flawed Thesis?
Replies: 34
Views: 2605

Re: Stock/Bond Ratio Determines Risk: Flawed Thesis?

I think Buffet was referring to a 30 year timeframe and long bonds versus stocks. If this is the case, many on this forum have misinterpreted the guy and wasted a lot of ink. :)
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1160

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

I only compare VG funds which admittedly is pragmatic and not the whole picture if you use other funds/etfs. My data shows that over 25 years MV has done better then SV. Before VG had a midcap value offering (started in 2009) I have used the msci index to compare these. For example: From June 1992 t...
by BlueEars
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6592

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-shouldnt-panic-over-falling-bond-prices-2018-02-13 This is the main point “Since 1993, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index, dominated by government and investment-grade corporate bonds, fell 1.2% on average during months when yields increased by...
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)
Replies: 13
Views: 1160

Re: Small Cap Value Benchmarks (related to Mid cap,too)

I have over weighted vmvax (MCV) for years. Very recently I moved all my vsiax (SCV) to it. The reason is simply better performance over extended time periods.
by BlueEars
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 43317

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Of course the outcome of monthly moving average methods is going to be somewhat dependent on the day of the month chosen. One only has to look at very sharp market declines like Oct 19 1987 (something like a -20% decline on that Black Monday). Selecting a mid-month day might well give a different ou...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 31
Views: 3094

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

One thing I track is the spread between the 10 year and 3 month Treasury. At the end of January 2018 it was 104 basis points. The median from 1987 to now is 183 bp.

So it's anemic. But I guess this is not necessarily a good indicator of forward yield differentials.
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?
Replies: 34
Views: 3430

Re: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?

George, you are right on. One can run VPW for that period and see that the AA didn't make much difference. With current low real rates in bonds and high PE's in stocks, could we see a similar bad paper asset class return period? I don't know the answer, just hoping not. But I do remember watching Wa...
by BlueEars
Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1909

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

Here is another theory. Bond investors have been enjoying high returns since about 1980 because rates have trended down. But we are at the end or near the end of that gift. In the future bond investors will need higher real rates because capital gains (due to declining rates) will not bail them out....
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2999

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

If I look at the VG growth minus value indexes, they are nowhere as extreme as in 2000. In 2000 we had high real rates. But we could still see a major crack in the markets as in 1962 not associated with a recession.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1909

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

saltycaper wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:40 pm
I don't think so, not in the near future at least. The flattening curve does not look promising. Something very unexpected would have to happen. I do hope I'm wrong though and would welcome 2% real on the 10-year.
That TIPS chart shows a flattened state in 2005 with rising rates.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1909

Re: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

lack_ey wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:26 pm
Do you mean ever, as a central tendency, in the near future (few years), or what?
I guess this question refers to maybe the next 5 years or so. Definitely not to 15 years out.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?
Replies: 17
Views: 1909

Is it likely we return to historical real bond yields?

In the past bond real yields for 5 year and 10 year Treasuries averaged 2.3% . This is according to Larry Swedroe for the period 1926 - 2010. The current 10 year TIPS are at 0.56%. See chart below for some history on this. I'm wondering if it is pretty likely we will return to about 2% on the 10 yea...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2999

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

... Tremendous events happening at that time, as I recall it: Huge fiscal and monetary policy changes [wage controls, price controls, going off gold standard], concluding a very long war [Vietnam], a massive demobilization [result of said conclusion of war], the Arab Oil Boycott [the aftermath of Y...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diary of a Bear Market
Replies: 24
Views: 2999

Re: Diary of a Bear Market

Nice article. Left out the fact that in June 1973 the yield curve inverted. Maybe some Wall Street types would have seen that as a red flag? I was hired from college in August 1972 at a midsize company called Hewlett Packard. It did OK partly because of the new handheld HP 35 Scientific Calculator. ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 9680

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

To me the issue is at what slope rates rise. Dalio thinks it will be faster then consensus.

Short term investment grade or intermediate bonds? I have both.
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6747

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Also, it is not clear to me what kind of stocks he used in 1994. The paper just says common stocks. And he uses date from Ibbotson Associates, "Stock, Bonds, Bills and Inflation: 1992 Yearbook" (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 1993). . I'm pretty sure SBBI in 1992 was U.S. stocks. Yes, it was. As I m...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6747

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

Looking at the OP's link brought back memories of the year 2000. That was a wild time in the markets and the media. At one lunchtime I was sitting across from a guy who was retiring. I asked him what his withdrawal % might be and he said 7% . Sounded a bit high to me but I didn't know enough to ques...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?
Replies: 13
Views: 984

Re: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?

Here in Northern California it is recommended to wait until the danger of frosts passes. That might be mid-February at the earliest. I'm kind of interested in this because we have a drip water irrigation system. Using a fertilizer like Osmacoat which last for 3 to 4 months, I'd prefer to catch a li...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1925

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

The last period of rising rates was April 2004 to June 2006. 5yr Treasuries rose from 2.8% to 5.1%. Here are some CAGR's for that period: VFIUX 0.6% intermediate Treasury VFIDX 1.2% intermediate IG VBTLX 1.4% Intermediate total stk mkt VFIRX 1.2% short term Treasury VFSUX 1.8% short term IG
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1925

Re: Which Intermediate Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates

I had a chart of comparing intermediate and short term Treasuries during the rising rate environment of the 1950-1980 period.
See: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=234213&e=1&view=unread#unread
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?
Replies: 13
Views: 984

Re: Fertilize dormant plants in winter?

Here in Northern California it is recommended to wait until the danger of frosts passes. That might be mid-February at the earliest. I'm kind of interested in this because we have a drip water irrigation system. Using a fertilizer like Osmacoat which last for 3 to 4 months, I'd prefer to catch a lit...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

... * In it's most simple form, the strategy can be summarized as follows (pg. 21 of the paper): BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only i...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

... * In it's most simple form, the strategy can be summarized as follows (pg. 21 of the paper): BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only i...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

To the OP: is the CAPE ratio used to modify the trend following or just as a separate variable to consider in the decumulation phase? Since the CAPE ratio has poor 1 year predictive value, I'd imagine that it doesn't do much for the trend following algorithm employed. Because of huge changes in mark...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I think there is a place for alternative ideas of investing in this forum. It is best to discuss these things in a collegial fashion with a focus on the methodology. Attacks that border on religious dogma (invoking well known investor names, for example) are off base I think. So often on this forum ...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 31
Views: 3094

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Thanks for the update. From another thread, David Swensen has cut duration: as rate came down, we systematically reduced the duration of our bond portfolio. And today it’s probably nine months or a year. And so we don’t think there is any point in—hey, Marty. (Laughter.) My first boss from Salomon ...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?
Replies: 34
Views: 3430

Re: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?

My first professional job was with Hewlett Packard in 1972. Did not have much to invest until the later 1970's. We saved for a house down payment first as inflation was going up and that was a sensible thing to do with our money. Bought a house in 1975 ... in what is now referred to as Silicon Valle...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?
Replies: 27
Views: 2717

Re: Conceptually: *Why* does the Yield Curve invert?

My questions are: Why does the yield curve invert? If short term rates are higher than long-term rates, wouldn't you want to "lock in" the HIGHER rates that are available with less duration? * Is this a play for Capital Gains, due to the price changes of longer duration bonds when interest rates dr...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "Natural" Interest Rate vs. The Fed, 1990-2017
Replies: 7
Views: 821

Re: The "Natural" Interest Rate vs. The Fed, 1990-2017

Interesting. This feels like more of a economic policy set of data than what an investor would use to make portfolio decisions. Am I wrong?
by BlueEars
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 4392

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

Things I've read about the Medallion Fun: it is not a compounded return, most of the gains are not reinvested, it can only make 70% a year on a fairly small amount due to the type of trades they do. Exactly. Commenters seem to be missing this point. The size of Medallion is strictly capped so it is...
by BlueEars
Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 4392

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

I have seen no information on this other than a results mention in Bloomberg. Unconfirmed and unaudited. Possible baloney.
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

If it were me, I would hold a mix such that the combined duration was similar to the duration of a ladder of bonds maturing over a time period I might expect to need the money. i.e. If was looking at a ladder of individual bonds/CDs maturing over the next 5 years, I would be looking at a fund durat...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

I went back to my notes on some bond topics here. Some very well versed investors were stating that ST bonds might be the better alternative going forward. I mention this for completeness. They might have just been too early. Perhaps in the next decade we will see interest rate risk? For instance th...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

I am asking myself what mix of intermediate term bonds (IT) versus short term bonds (ST) to hold? Many here hold intermediate term and since the early 1980's that has been a good position. I use a 1-10 Gov/credit bogey and break up the portfolio into four components - short & intermediate, and Trea...
by BlueEars
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

TIPS are also pretty low right now. VIPSX has a 0.2% SEC yield. FWIW, in the FI portion of my portfolio I have 50% intermediate bonds (IG IT, using VFIDX). The other 50% is less inflation sensitive: short term investment grade (VFSUX) and older iBonds keepers. Total average duration = 3.7 years. Wh...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

Bogleheads say dont time the market (except in bonds??) People here have speculated that interest rates were going up for years and years This thread is not really keyed on MT nor speculation. Just trying to find a happy medium. There has to be some basis for selecting your FI. That is what I am tr...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

In a rising rate environment, even the slowly rising rate structure which is anticipated, short term bonds are attractive IMO. This is especially so now when interest rate spreads between short and intermediate term bonds have narrowed considerably. You get paid very little these days to take on du...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

Regarding market timing, I am not adverse to it. But for me, the rules have to be stated very clearly ahead of time. Data has to be presented rigorously. It cannot be a daily endeavor as I might be on vacation or something, maybe use monthly data. For me, I have used monthly data going way back and ...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3956

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

TIPS are also pretty low right now. VIPSX has a 0.2% SEC yield.

FWIW, in the FI portion of my portfolio I have 50% intermediate bonds (IG IT, using VFIDX). The other 50% is less inflation sensitive: short term investment grade (VFSUX) and older iBonds keepers. Total average duration = 3.7 years.