Search found 3611 matches

by BlueEars
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3384

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

It’s only when the market turns, and the turn starts to look like it constitutes a trend, that our investor begins to think about conserving all those gains—whether derived from Investor’s acumen or Fed largesse, who cares? It’s money: and when it looks like the party’s over, it’s our job as invest...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 111
Views: 6671

Re: Time Value of Money vs. Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

So far, the only drawback of this annuitization approach to VPW that I can see is that it requires the user to input a couple of unknowns, the number of years to amortize over and the expected rate of return, to compute the current year's withdrawals. For most Bogleheads, this seems like a very min...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 5837

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

It seems to me that people are confusing an inverted yield curve with a negative term premium. Although the Treasury yield curve is quite flat beyond 2-year maturity, it isn't inverted. Anyway, that's not it. You can read some of the linked articles to understand it better. My understanding is that...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3384

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

Here are some scenarios where trend following is difficult: 1) You are on vacation in a foreign country and the end of month sell/buy signal hits. To be consistent you must act even from a different time zone. 2) You have 3 accounts (Roth IRA, traditional IRA, taxable) with multiple funds in each, e...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 64
Views: 3384

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

.... You can see that timing underperformed buy-and-hold for a long time, 1989-2008. That's typical for this strategy: it underperforms during bull markets but outperforms in bear markets. But over the entire period, its return was nearly identical to buy-and-hold but with significantly lower drawd...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Protagonist I agree that 5 year money TIPS are a great choice in retirement. Even though historical real rates have been better then 1% these rates are a decent certainty. But a retiree needs to think about their spending requirements for each year going forward. In my case I have to take RMD's each...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

So Kevin, if I understand you right the real yield as stated on the April 2019 is an illusion. When I run the VG quotes I have to correct them? When the inflation is corrected for seasonality it brings the real yield in line with the yields further out? The correction appears to be much less for dat...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Follow up: I bought TIPS April 2023 at about 1.05%. Will hold to maturity. This is now 22% of my FI. I'm looking at buying some very short term TIPS. Some quotes from today: April 2019 2.1% <<<<<< might purchase these and extend out later if real rates continue to go up April 2020 1.3% April 2021 1....
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 7827

Re: How low can BND go?

Why consider short bonds, TIPs, etc? See my post with long term chart above. Might we repeat the 1950’s ? Shorter term was winner in that era. https://i.postimg.cc/KvL3bf6b/Capture.jpg Here is a chart of the 5 year Treasury going back to 1953: https://i.postimg.cc/SsvkY0zP/Capture.jpg link: https://...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 7827

Re: How low can BND go?

... I think I'd worry about this only if the Federal Reserve board forgets every lesson they've learned about monetary policy since 1980. See here for more detail: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4150162#p4150162 Not quite sure what you are pointing out here. My thought is the 1950...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 7827

Re: How low can BND go?

With the US economy doing so well I’m assuming we can expect the interest rates to continue to rise. Just wondering how low this can push the total bond market? I look to bonds to reduce large portfolio swings, maybe CDs are a safer investment for the near term. I try not to listen to the noise but...
by BlueEars
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 6110

Re: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run

Why focus on ancient returns data? The developed world has changed too much. There was slavery in the 1800's and financial markets were very very different. I prefer just looking at post WW2 data which is confusing enough.
by BlueEars
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

... I don't think you can read these things off charts. If the US slips into recession, real yields could be lower in 2 years time. I would tend to buy the 5 year TIPS because then it is done and dusted. Unless there's a big swing in real yields, I wouldn't feel too stupid about it. Actually I was ...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

... I don't think you can read these things off charts. If the US slips into recession, real yields could be lower in 2 years time. I would tend to buy the 5 year TIPS because then it is done and dusted. Unless there's a big swing in real yields, I wouldn't feel too stupid about it. Actually I was ...
by BlueEars
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Thanks for all the interesting thoughts so far. When I look at the Fed Funds rate versus 5 year TIPS (see below), it makes me think that maybe buying 2 year TIPS as mentioned above is perhaps a decent strategy. Should we get a continuation up in the Fed Funds rate, it might be possible to get 5 year...
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

According to Larry Swedroe the 5 year Treasury had a historical real return of 2.3% for 1926-2010.
by BlueEars
Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Looking at the last 5 years, it appears that there is a marked rise in the 5 yearTIPS yield into December and then a decline into the early part of the next year. Well maybe December 2018 didn't quite qualify. Probably this is not a pattern to bet on but I just thought it interesting. https://i.post...
by BlueEars
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Yes, I'd only buy 2 yr TIPS from VG on the secondary market.
by BlueEars
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

If you buy a 5-year TIP bond you are betting that REAL interest rates are not going to rise. I have not idea what they will do, maybe they will go down in the next recession or maybe they will go up. Why 5 year and not 2 years. Yes real rates could go up ... or down. If I hold to maturity it doesn'...
by BlueEars
Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Thoughts on 5 year TIPS bonds?

Every once in awhile lately I mull buying some 5 year TIPS in retirement accounts. Maybe 10% of our FI to start with. 5 year TIPS because we are retired at age 70 and can easily hold to maturity. The current rates are starting to look tempting. Should I be tempted? The current rate is 1.07%. Here is...
by BlueEars
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Voice recognition on iPhone any better then iPad?
Replies: 3
Views: 280

Re: Voice recognition on iPhone any better then iPad?

The iPad and the iPhone both use the same software running in the same cloud. Conceivably the microphones on the iPhone might be better at filtering out background noise. The microphone is one of the items I was wondering about. I suppose I could go down to the Apple store and check the phone out w...
by BlueEars
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Voice recognition on iPhone any better then iPad?
Replies: 3
Views: 280

Voice recognition on iPhone any better then iPad?

I am trying to decide whether to buy a Pixel phone or an iPhone in the next month. I will make this decision after seeing the Pixel 3XL announcement. My Nexus 6P phone is dying (bad hardware). What stops me from buying an iPhone is the voice recognition functionality I experience on the iPad. The vo...
by BlueEars
Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The fact that these allocations are being discussed in 10% increments shows that the numbers are not that precise. Getting into precision on allocations seems to be more a feel good, excuse making exercise. When I look at outcomes for 60/40 versus 50/50 in VPW for downturn periods, they give similar...
by BlueEars
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

.... My goal is to compare actual inflation adj, dividend reinvested returns for as far back as data will allow. ... In the past I've used MSCI data. This is the link to download the MSCI EAFE index but it requires Adobe Flash which I don't have on my system for security reasons: https://www.msci.c...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Willthrill, Your approach sounds good to me. I have also used the Fed Leading Index series in conjunction with that unemployment data as a filter. I prefer to find a few methods to employ so the portfolio is not too dependent on one approach.
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

... So do you use a relative strength criterion for determining which asset classes to move into? Yes, basically a momentum based strategy i.e. trend following. Somewhat like the approach Antonacci uses but I rolled my own before his book came out. Never read his book but I have seen articles descr...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Here is a chart of the EAFE and SP500 (includes dividends) for 1970 to 2015:

Image
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

... I honestly don't know what I would do if I wasn't a trend follower (I don't have a static AA). The U.S. has been a great market for decades, but it might turn into Japan 2.0. If I did incorporate international into my portfolio, it would be at least half of my equities, because I would be inves...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

.... My goal is to compare actual inflation adj, dividend reinvested returns for as far back as data will allow. ... In the past I've used MSCI data. This is the link to download the MSCI EAFE index but it requires Adobe Flash which I don't have on my system for security reasons: https://www.msci.c...
by BlueEars
Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 106989

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

... I honestly don't know what I would do if I wasn't a trend follower (I don't have a static AA). The U.S. has been a great market for decades, but it might turn into Japan 2.0. If I did incorporate international into my portfolio, it would be at least half of my equities, because I would be inves...
by BlueEars
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

VTAPX is an interesting thought. Thanks.
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

... That's 21 bp for 3.2 years on the treasury side, or 6.6 bp/year. That's 68 bp for 3.6 years on the corporate side, or 18.8 bp/year. So I've kept my intermediate corporate fund, but I've moved to short-term treasuries. I don't jump back and forth based on interest rate forecasts, but I will move...
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

I haven't seen anything besides the Swedroe mention. He had said that DFA used this but the manner they used it was not discussed. I've tried various schemes with Treasury data but never found anything that I felt was worth it. Looking at that chart of sorted slopes above, if I take the years that h...
by BlueEars
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

It occurred to me that I could sort the data by the slope (bp/yr on right axis). Below is that sort. Ignore the 1944-1953 zeros which appear in the chart. The arrow points to the beginning 2018 slope of 11 bp/yr. https://s6.postimg.cc/tkon09xvl/Capture.jpg It seems the slope effect is not all that s...
by BlueEars
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

Re: To extend out maturities or not?

Thanks Mega317, I was really focusing on the slopes data. The comments at the end were a bit of speculation and for this forum might be taken the wrong way i.e. might be seen as ad hoc timing. I try to stick to the broad historical data mostly. My "neutral" position would be to have more intermediat...
by BlueEars
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To extend out maturities or not?
Replies: 9
Views: 1059

To extend out maturities or not?

I've compared 3 investment grade bond funds. There are: VUSFX Ultra Short Term........Sec yield = 2.53%, avg maturity = 0.9 years VFSUX Short Term IG...........Sec yield = 3.17%, avg maturity = 3.2 years VFIDX Intermeditate Term IG..Sec yield = 3.59%, avg maturity = 6.0 years I calculated the slope ...
by BlueEars
Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9608

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I charted this data (mostly from Simba) for my own understanding but it might help some here. https://s6.postimg.cc/jc753w04x/Capture.jpg Also I wanted to see how the choice of short term (ST) or intermediate term worked out with particular attention to the rising rate period of 1950-1982. Choosing ...
by BlueEars
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9608

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

One note is that ther was a Federally imposed interest rate cap in the 1940s that deliberately was under inflation. It’s not how bills would have performed without that cap. It’s certainly a risk, but is a confiscatory risk rather than an inherently inflationary one. Good point, one that I'd forgot...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 14
Views: 2327

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

... I will be interested to see what happens to Vanguard's Investment Grade Bond funds now that Nassour has left. This fund is still a Medalist despite its manager change, but has been downgraded to Bronze. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade navigates the corporate bond market with a risk-...
by BlueEars
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 14
Views: 2327

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

Agreed that it has been shown that Gross was not the only contributor at PTTRX and that his leaving did not seem to hurt the fund in a major way.

Gross's current fund has quite a different mandate then PTTRX so maybe should not be compared to it.
by BlueEars
Sun May 27, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet
Replies: 60
Views: 4924

Re: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet

golfCaddy wrote:
Sun May 27, 2018 12:59 pm
I have an iPad and have been disappointed. It drops wifi randomly. This seems to be a common problem on iOS devices.
I've had no issue like this in a wide variety of environments. Maybe the signal strength is weak?
by BlueEars
Sun May 27, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet
Replies: 60
Views: 4924

Re: Considering iPad to replace failing Nexus tablet

Went from Nexus 7 to iPad. Took awhile to get used to it and am really happy with the larger screen size. I agree that one might want to load the Google apps on it. You can cluster apps into one icon for organization.
by BlueEars
Sat May 19, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2915

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

I could imagine extending out on the yield curve if: 1) You are paid to do so based on something like 20 bp/yr 2) or there is a significant falloff in the U.S. Leading Index Regarding #2, one wants to be in intermediate bonds if a business slowdown is coming. The Leading Index series only covers abo...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

I've had a positions in both VFIDX (Intermediate Term Investment Grade) and VFSUX (Short Term Investment Grade). So in light of this conversation I wanted to look at how the start of the year spread of SEC yields between VFIDX and VFSUX suggested that year's return. Here is the chart: https://s7.pos...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

... I guess if one wants to manage across the yield curve it would make sense to shift assets from one fund to the other. I don't see why one would expect someone to manipulate an index to do that. I didn't say anything above that shows I expect the Total Bond Mkt fund to be changed or any index ma...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

I would think one would want to manage duration in one's fixed income part of the portfolio. Thoughts? Other than not being way out of one's ballpark, why would you want to manage duration? It would be a very extreme and peculiar case where any purpose an investor has would be highly sensitive to t...
by BlueEars
Wed May 09, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

Also, in case you haven't noticed, some experts are saying that the Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index is too risky because the duration is increasing, and others are saying it is becoming too conservative because the percentage of government issues in it is increasing. Shrug. I think the risk ret...
by BlueEars
Tue May 08, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

Nisiprius, I'm wondering if your analysis allows the stock component to dominate too much. After all, who cares if stocks are on a tear? :happy Perhaps a better choice is to imagine $100K in bonds and see how the 2 fixed income portions compare in dollar terms? This might show how sensitive that wil...
by BlueEars
Tue May 08, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2819

Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

There was an interesting article by Ben Carlson recently: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/05/the-bond-market-is-getting-interesting/ He mentioned that the Total Bond Market index has increased in duration over recent years. Going from an average of 4.8 and now up to 6.1 years! I think that woul...
by BlueEars
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will I lose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?
Replies: 8
Views: 986

Re: Will I loose VG bond fund distribution if selling before end-of-month?

The "Fund Distributions" section for VFSUX states this: Each Fund distributes to shareholders virtually all of its net income (interest less expenses) as well as any net short-term or long-term capital gains realized from the sale of its holdings. Each Fund’s income dividends generally are declared...