Search found 835 matches

by boglerdude
Sat May 23, 2020 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4910
Views: 424628

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Would this strategy work with German/Japan 30yrs or is their volatility too low because they're near zero?
by boglerdude
Thu May 21, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 149
Views: 9421

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

> US has outperformed, in aggregate, exUS for the past century+

So ex-US is still too expensive? Why isnt all that historical/political data priced in?
by boglerdude
Thu May 14, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40721

Re: Why international?

How have countries with equal or superior shareholder rights done compared to US
by boglerdude
Wed May 13, 2020 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4277

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

Millions of people are studying companies, pricing the stocks. They get it close enough to exactly right.

With cap weighting, you buy the same % of every company. eg you'll own 1% of Al's tofu stand and 1% of Apple.
by boglerdude
Sun May 03, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40721

Re: Why international?

Any methods to minimize foreign taxes, eg an international growth fund with low dividends or a fund of countries with tax agreements? My income's too low to recoup the loss with the foreign tax credit (although you can roll it forward) https://www.fool.com/taxes/2014/09/13/how-to-avoid-foreign-divid...
by boglerdude
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finding a contractor
Replies: 10
Views: 811

Re: Finding a contractor

Nextdoor.com
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 14880

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Nikkei (priced in gold) looked good until 2001

http://pricedingold.com/nikkei-index/
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40721

Re: Why international?

"The Vanguard International Stock Fund has performed horribly"

Why. And why isn't this priced in.
by boglerdude
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40721

Re: Why international?

Those narratives are priced in? How do you calculate the expected forward return on total US vs total international
by boglerdude
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bond funds that can hold fallen angels
Replies: 7
Views: 580

Re: Investment grade bond funds that can hold fallen angels

The argument for junk bonds is the same as "dividend stocks" - it just feels good to get a dividend check

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309276
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Documentaries on the 1929 Crash?
Replies: 3
Views: 517

Re: Good Documentaries on the 1929 Crash?

It was a different world then. Mortgages were callable, Fed hoarded currency (gold), no FDIC, Dust Bowl reducing food supply.
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4910
Views: 424628

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Some noob questions. How low can the 30 year go? At some rate it's cheaper to store cash in a warehouse? What has happened with German and Japanese versions of EDV? If the rate moves from 1% to .5% does that mean the fund increases ~25%? in value (because you'd collect twice the interest over 30 yea...
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term Treasuries killing it!
Replies: 20
Views: 2406

Re: Long-term Treasuries killing it!

No one's going to buy 30 year bonds at -5%. Can the Fed buy everything, and have yields at all durations -5% or lower?

What are the economic constraints on the fed. They'd be forced to raise (on which durations?) if inflation got too high. Any others?
by boglerdude
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4029

Re: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?

If inflation gets too high, how will it be decided, whether to raise rates or raise taxes
by boglerdude
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another way a crash manifests itself
Replies: 20
Views: 1802

Re: Another way a crash manifests itself

If you stopped printing new dollars, they'd get hoarded as their purchasing power increases. Buffett would end up with all the dollars and he'd loan them to you at 20%
by boglerdude
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

> from 1971 through October 2019, the S&P 500 has annualized returns of 10.6% per year, beating out the MSCI EAFE index by 1.6% per year During which decades has international outperformed, by how much, and why (economically/geo-politically) For those in retirement who would like to hedge against Se...
by boglerdude
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks - high yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 839

Re: Howard Marks - high yield bonds

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:40 am
If I was going to invest in HY bonds, I would take it out of my equity allocation, not my bond allocation.
why not just buy actual equities then
by boglerdude
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks - high yield bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 839

Re: Howard Marks - high yield bonds

Lower volatility with lower returns than equity. Notably, Vanguards fund has beaten the index viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309276
by boglerdude
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: chances of the dollar becoming devalued
Replies: 24
Views: 1919

Re: chances of the dollar becoming devalued

> In Argentina they removed a zero from everyone's holdings. So overnight a 1mm became 100,000

How exactly is this done and what are the consequences
by boglerdude
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt
Replies: 62
Views: 4457

Re: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt

Any of you in high yield in fallen angels? Angl - vaneck fallen angels, faln - ishares fallen angels I just dumped FALN. Plunged like equities this month, and wont bounce back as much: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309276 And now there's talk the fed will buy corporates at r...
by boglerdude
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much umbrella insurance do I need?
Replies: 14
Views: 1059

Re: How much umbrella insurance do I need?

> insurance companies will work harder to defend $2m or $5m of their own risk than $1m. If you have 5M the plaintiff's going to demand that amount. In any event, if there's 100k+ of actual damages, you'll want your own attorney to make sure your insurance doesnt resist the settlement. For those unsu...
by boglerdude
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much umbrella insurance do I need?
Replies: 14
Views: 1059

Re: How much umbrella insurance do I need?

Insurance defends you with any liability policy.

1M. More if pools, trampolines, aggressive dogs, or reckless drivers.
by boglerdude
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallen Angel junk bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1474

Fallen Angel junk bonds

Looks like I fell for the narrative that you can get a deal on downgraded investment grade bonds because institutions are forced to sell them. I bought FALN, this chart is performance since launch June '16. Trounced by stocks and Vanguard's junk fund. Looks like the downside of stocks w/out the upsi...
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can bogleheads help during this crisis?
Replies: 20
Views: 1273

Re: How can bogleheads help during this crisis?

Join your Nextdoor.com neighborhood. There are threads about running errands for the elderly, etc. Donate idle CPU time. https://foldingathome.org/2020/03/15/coronavirus-what-were-doing-and-how-you-can-help-in-simple-terms/ folding@home has some glitches from increased traffic. If you want the 3D an...
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: medicare vs uninsured motorist insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 427

Re: medicare vs uninsured motorist insurance

Have good health and disability ins

Your insurance wont just cut you a check for $2M if you lose a leg by an uninsured motorist. You'll have to fight them.
by boglerdude
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus - Helping Others
Replies: 19
Views: 1370

Re: Coronavirus - Helping Others

Go on your local Nextdoor.com page and offer to deliver supplies to the immunocompromised
by boglerdude
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insurance Co offering to Allow Paying Outstanding Bill at a Discount
Replies: 10
Views: 943

Re: Insurance Co offering to Allow Paying Outstanding Bill at a Discount

Add yourself as "additional interest" (not additional insured) so you'll be told when policies lapse
by boglerdude
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand why I need uninsured, underinsured motorist liability and medical payments.
Replies: 50
Views: 3906

Re: Help me understand why I need uninsured, underinsured motorist liability and medical payments.

OnTrack wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:26 am
boglerdude wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:20 pm
You have to sue the at-fault driver to collect Underinsured, and your own insurance might defend the at-fault driver to minimize the payout. ...
Really? :confused
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/ ... ogressive/
by boglerdude
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me understand why I need uninsured, underinsured motorist liability and medical payments.
Replies: 50
Views: 3906

Re: Help me understand why I need uninsured, underinsured motorist liability and medical payments.

You have to sue the at-fault driver to collect Underinsured, and your own insurance might defend the at-fault driver to minimize the payout. So it will be interesting to see what exactly happens here: I was hit by an uninsured motorist as I was riding my bicycle about a year ago. It was clearly her ...
by boglerdude
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdraw/cancel auto insurance claim?
Replies: 1
Views: 297

Re: Withdraw/cancel auto insurance claim?

If they dont pay out, they'll be less inclined to claw it back through a rate increase
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds - are they really safe?
Replies: 31
Views: 2696

Re: Bond funds - are they really safe?

For example EDV, duration 25 years. Say you buy 100k when the 30 day SEC yield is 3% In 25 years you'll have your 100k back plus 3% annual compounded interest - $209,378 ? Is there a web-based calculator that tells you how much you get if you sell after X years, based on the average interest rate ov...
by boglerdude
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Fed “Tools” Save This Market?
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: How Can Fed “Tools” Save This Market?

They can extend credit to credit-worthy borrowers who arent getting credit because of panic
by boglerdude
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC lender recommendations
Replies: 13
Views: 883

Re: HELOC lender recommendations

Anybody do no income docs? ie based on your equity and/or credit score
by boglerdude
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto/Umbrella Ins. for child with car in his name?
Replies: 7
Views: 782

Re: Auto/Umbrella Ins. for child with car in his name?

Offer to pay for your sons umbrella and add yourself as additional interest (so you get notified when policy lapses).
by boglerdude
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bond Yields Accurately Forecasting Future Inflation?
Replies: 43
Views: 2840

Re: Are Bond Yields Accurately Forecasting Future Inflation?

Is it a free market if fed or primary dealers are required to buy treasuries
by boglerdude
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Loss of Use insurance when not rebuilding
Replies: 1
Views: 267

Loss of Use insurance when not rebuilding

Trying to decide if we should purchase loss-of-use earthquake condo insurance through the CEA. What happens if the HOA cant afford to rebuild and they force the sale of our unit? Would loss-of-use pay for our rental apartment only until title is transferred, or would they pay out the policy limit? A...
by boglerdude
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rates and Economy
Replies: 17
Views: 1168

Re: Interest rates and Economy

> I always thought falling prices over time were a good thing

If prices fall, wages need to fall. When folks see their nominal wages fall, they vote for a higher minimum wage. That pushes up all wages and forces layoffs.
by boglerdude
Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Changing home insurer, should I be trying to increase coverage amount too?
Replies: 2
Views: 254

Re: Changing home insurer, should I be trying to increase coverage amount too?

Most insurers use an online system to decide your rebuild cost, and they wont change it

If you want to try changing it, or want to be sure you have enough coverage, get a rebuild estimate from a builder.
by boglerdude
Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving Amica for Cincinnati, Erie, Travelers, or MetLife?
Replies: 25
Views: 1705

Re: Leaving Amica for Cincinnati, Erie, Travelers, or MetLife?

Self insure where you can afford to, so your rates dont go up like they did. And claims handling becomes less important.

But if you want the best service, also check out Chubb, PURE, AIG & Nationwide Private Client
by boglerdude
Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in gold via ETF or ETN?
Replies: 12
Views: 754

Re: Better to invest in gold via ETF or ETN?

Tax is income rate w/28% max. PHYS claims to have a special tax arrangement. AAAU is government backed and redeemable.
by boglerdude
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance cost
Replies: 98
Views: 6615

Re: Umbrella insurance cost

Say your medical bills are 700k and the defendant's policy is 500k You have to front the costs of trial, and wont get those back if you lose. Trial will take years, with fees in the hundreds of thousands. In court you'll need to convince the jury of foreseeable negligence/malintent if you want punit...
by boglerdude
Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance cost
Replies: 98
Views: 6615

Re: Umbrella insurance cost

> Imagine what the settlement might be if you killed someone in a car accident who was a young professional in a high earning position

The settlement would be for whatever the policy limit is, as usual.
by boglerdude
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance cost
Replies: 98
Views: 6615

Re: Umbrella insurance cost

> UM/UIM is the single most important coverage you need under your umbrella policy

Wouldnt it better to have a disability policy that covers you when driving and when not
by boglerdude
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance cost
Replies: 98
Views: 6615

Re: Umbrella insurance cost

> I am curious why people feel the need to maintain liability limits of $5M?

Fear-mongering by lawyers and insurance agents. 1M umbrella is enough unless theres a reckless driver in your household.
by boglerdude
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I get annual termite inspections of my home?
Replies: 32
Views: 2471

Re: Should I get annual termite inspections of my home?

BogleFanGal wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:56 am
can anyone recommend reputable national companies or did you only use local firms?
Ask on Nextdoor.com
by boglerdude
Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay rent electronically - Fidelity? Other?
Replies: 16
Views: 1053

Re: Pay rent electronically - Fidelity? Other?

> Lake Michigan Credit Union has a tool that allows to pay other people via direct deposit

I think most banks offer this, online bill pay. Problem is having to ask for someones bank account #
https://www.lmcu.org/help-center/online-bill-pay/
by boglerdude
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 68
Views: 9638

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Why did stocks tank in the 70s. Why didnt they rise with (stag)inflation
by boglerdude
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental House Investment
Replies: 12
Views: 1570

Re: Rental House Investment

To beat stock returns you'll need to put in time/sweat equity and it sounds like youre already busy.

The Biggerpockets forum will be more enthusiastic about it, if you want to ask there.