Search found 1773 matches

by finite_difference
Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best $10k car for me?
Replies: 32
Views: 2197

Re: Best $10k car for me?

Used VW Golf GTI, Volvo Station Wagon, Honda CRV, Toyota Highlander?

Are you taking the front tire off your bike or you want to fit a full sized bike in there?
by finite_difference
Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My parents want me to buy them a car... should I?
Replies: 33
Views: 2398

Re: My parents want me to buy them a car... should I?

I mean I'd love to just buy them a used car for like 8k just to get them out of my hair, but it will not end there with them. Any suggestions on what the right thing to do here is? An ~$8k used car that you’ve researched should be a massive upgrade over their current 20-year old vehicle. I would st...
by finite_difference
Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19482

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Forester wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 am
Disaster for the gold critics - gold soars past $1,800 to a 9 year high.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@GC.1
Still below the 2011 price of $1,900.

But gold has definitely had a good run in the past year though.
by finite_difference
Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19482

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Disaster for the gold critics - gold soars past $1,800 to a 9 year high. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@GC.1 Wow. :shock: Question: how long will it take for the proponents of the theory that gold's expected real return is zero to at least admit that the theory might be wrong? There's really ...
by finite_difference
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 59
Views: 4607

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

So the way I would frame this question is whether there is a plausible scenario where Tesla will at some point, say five to ten years down the road, become the most profitable car company in the world on an ongoing basis. (I'm deliberately discounting the ancillary businesses they are in since it i...
by finite_difference
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hopeless Civil Engineer
Replies: 134
Views: 11300

Re: Hopeless Civil Engineer

An engineering degree teaches one how to learn quickly, how to structure thinking and opens a lot of possibilities. Not to mention that an engineer will by definition be very good in math. I have a BSEC and ended up in corporate finance/investment management after getting an MBA. I could also have ...
by finite_difference
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Replies: 55
Views: 4506

Re: Speculating - Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

To hold myself accountable - I am normally robotic about investing and have never held an individual security. I gambled on Chesapeake Energy (CHK) due to a variety of factors, not to be disclosed. First tranche cost basis came in at $2.7/share and then doubled down @ $2.02/share. Current price sit...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which College degrees are worthwhile?
Replies: 181
Views: 10516

Re: Which College degrees are worthwhile?

I wouldn't come at it from that direction, but..... Currently, there is an insatiable appetite for Computer Science/Computer engineering degrees, and the new grad salaries are skyrocketing. The problem for me with computer science is there don't seem to be any professional accreditation, e.g an acc...
by finite_difference
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.
Replies: 81
Views: 7826

Re: Taleb: The coronavirus is not a black swan.

I’d say it’s too early to tell whether covid-19, and the world’s response to it, constitutes a black swan event or not. Taleb labels 9/11 and the 2008 recession as black swans. In my opinion covid-19 could have much more significant impacts than either of those. It could also turn out to have little...
by finite_difference
Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying house - am I ready?
Replies: 14
Views: 1406

Re: Buying house - am I ready?

I think financially you’re OK but I would wait a year for a couple reasons: -Generally it seems a bit risky to purchase a home right now. Cali prices are in general very high but millions of people have lost jobs. I’d rent a home instead. -Depending on how things go, you might be allowed to work rem...
by finite_difference
Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AWD van or no AWD but with winter tires?
Replies: 89
Views: 4314

Re: AWD van or no AWD but with winter tires?

Snow tires, by a huge margin. Yes, there are places that will store the extra wheels/tires for you. This. It's really difficult to overstate how much better snow tires are than all-seasons on snow/ice and in cold conditions. A lot of independent tire shops will store your off-season set. Some will ...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Stock Market becoming Casino ?
Replies: 42
Views: 3761

Re: Is Stock Market becoming Casino ?

Short term voting machine, long term weighing machine is right. Not quite. In Security Analysis , Graham and Dodd wrote that "The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine." However, Jason Zweig has said that has ever been able to find anything in Benjamin Graham's writings ab...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you rent your house to a famous athlete?
Replies: 104
Views: 8028

Re: Would you rent your house to a famous athlete?

Nicolas wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:51 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:23 pm
I once rented to a (not famous, not athlete) young person. After they finally left, I vowed to burn the place to the ground before I’d ever rent again.
Youth is wasted on the young.
I would argue that youth is wasted on young adults. Kids genuinely know how to have fun.
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undergrad college list parameters.
Replies: 100
Views: 4239

Re: Undergrad college list parameters.

The number one criteria that I had for my college selection was: 1. As far away from my parents as possible. I think location is always a big criteria. The opposite for me. But either way the point about location being important stands. I think you’re making it too complicated worrying about high s...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25900

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

You beat my edit, but couldn’t it also be called the “Reversion to mean fallacy”? This is where good platitudes meet with bad thinking and failure. If you don't understand what reverts to the mean, and what doesn't, then the platitude itself doesn't work for you, and you are going to get it mixed u...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25900

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Someone needs to coin a pithy term for the fallacy that “something that goes down must eventually come back up again” Lots of Bogleheads suffer from this unfortunate affliction, costing them lots of money in the form of expensive fixed rate mortgages and unrenumerative short term bond holdings. I a...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6465
Views: 546653

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Retail spending up ~18% vs 8% -- this probably would have been obvious any of these Wall Street analysts if they bothered to leave their panic rooms and venture outside a bit. Even in uber cautious coastal California, things have pretty much roared back to life, traffic jams, restaurant patios are ...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: heated driveway?
Replies: 91
Views: 4569

Re: heated driveway?

I have a heated driveway with my new house. Hydronic system under my concrete driveway. Boiler in the garage. Cost about $17k for my driveway Splurged with the intention of staying in this house forever and would similarly need this when we become ancient. It is manually controlled and works well. ...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: heated driveway?
Replies: 91
Views: 4569

Re: heated driveway?

Just look for another snow removal contractor or kid in the neighborhood to remove the snow. Fewer issues and lower costs. Third post of mine saying that does not work. For those that are booked up, did you offer to pay 50% above market rate? And if they still reject you, did you ask for other reco...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7085

Re: I think I need a new computer

I think 16Gb RAM is an excessive recommendation. 4Gb in a computer with an SSD should be enough for most users requirements. 8Gb is better, and is probably the most an average person will use, above that there is unlikely to be a benefit. I have 16Gb, but whenever I look, about half is not in use. ...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7085

Re: I think I need a new computer

If I simply copied all important files off of my computer, then reset the computer using these steps: https://www.laptopmag.com/articles/reset-windows-10-pc would that basically take my computer back to day 1? then I could just re download and install all the programs I need again, and put the file...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2667
Views: 214226

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Locked today with Better for 3% 30 yr fixed with ~$3,500 credit. Was also offered 2.875% with ~$2,100 credit. Used a competing offer from UWM to match and Better beat it. After factoring in the $2,500 AMEX credit this should be a pretty lucrative refi (currently at 3.5%). How are you getting such g...
by finite_difference
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25900

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I find these sorts of questions odd for a Bogleheads group. PSLDX is expensive, with an expense ratio of 1.11%. It is actively managed. The fund seems nothing like they sort of strategy recommended by Jack Bogle or any Bogleheads. Here is how they describe their own fund: "Taking an innovative appr...
by finite_difference
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25900

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Someone needs to coin a pithy term for the fallacy that “something that goes down must eventually come back up again” Lots of Bogleheads suffer from this unfortunate affliction, costing them lots of money in the form of expensive fixed rate mortgages and unrenumerative short term bond holdings. I a...
by finite_difference
Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16243

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

Just check your asset allocation and if you are under your desired weight in equities, then today is not a bad day to buy more equities to get closer to your desired weight in equities. Corollary: if you are significantly over your desired weight in equities, it is also not a bad day to buy more bo...
by finite_difference
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I need a new computer
Replies: 135
Views: 7085

Re: I think I need a new computer

I think it’s also perfectly OK to purchase a new laptop every 6 years.

Either way, make sure you get an SSD and 16GB RAM, and run Windows 10.
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2667
Views: 214226

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

First Post: Does this make sense to move forward with? Current Loan - VA, 30 year fixed at 3.25%. Originated mid-2016. Current balance ~$290k Refi Quote - VA, 30 year fixed at 2.75%. No points. Fees: Box B $491, Box C $1702, Box E - $1783. $500 lender credit. The quote for the refi looks decent too...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 446
Views: 24542

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

I’d buy a fully loaded Tesla S ($104k) + Wall Connector ($2-4k with installation and electrical panel update?) Then also spring for some solar panels and a few Powerwalls maybe while I’m at it ;) I think a Roadster is more OP’s cuppa. Not available yet, and I think the value is not really there ove...
by finite_difference
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 446
Views: 24542

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

I’d buy a fully loaded Tesla S ($104k) + Wall Connector ($2-4k with installation and electrical panel update?)

Then also spring for some solar panels and a few Powerwalls maybe while I’m at it ;)
by finite_difference
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I pull out of TIAA Real Estate...?
Replies: 36
Views: 2347

Re: Should I pull out of TIAA Real Estate...?

If I hadn't sold TREA already, I would have after seeing last month's 10% drop in the Green Street index. here's a link showing the 10% drop https://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/insights/CPPI for what it's worth i am staying in TREA (6% allocation) cheers grok So far I’m holding steady at around 7% ...
by finite_difference
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Tires or New Car?
Replies: 67
Views: 4512

Re: New Tires or New Car?

Update: I attempted the tirerack shaved tire route, but they did not sell the tire I have on our vehicle (it's been discontinued apparently and they were out of inventory of it). I also searched on ebay for used tires, but most of those were tires that had been repaired/patched, and given this is m...
by finite_difference
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1617
Views: 409800

Re: Share your net worth progression

Bogleheads: Sixteen years ago when my wife and I were about 80, we realized that we had saved more than enough to see us through the remainder of our retirement with the purchase of two Single Premium Immediate Annuities. Accordingly we started giving our children their inheritance immediately in t...
by finite_difference
Sat May 30, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I pull out of TIAA Real Estate...?
Replies: 36
Views: 2347

Re: Should I pull out of TIAA Real Estate...?

Ok, I feel the itch. May I be damned for market timing. I have a small amount of money in TIAA Real Estate, and I'm wondering if I should swap it out for regular REITs. TIAA fact sheet indicates that 37% is in Office and 20% in Retail. We know (or at least it it my belief) that COVID-19 will cause ...
by finite_difference
Sat May 30, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Vehicle: Forester or Rav4 for boglehead couple
Replies: 88
Views: 5693

Re: New Vehicle: Forester or Rav4 for boglehead couple

Get the RAV4 hybrid. Toyota's hybrid track record is the best. RAV4 is amazing vehicle. You will get better mileage than Forester. Toyota owns 20% of Subaru, and I think Subaru will be using Toyota hybrid technology moving forward, with a transition to full EV across its lineup by ~ 2035. I vote RA...
by finite_difference
Fri May 29, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I panicking or being prudent?
Replies: 68
Views: 6764

Re: Am I panicking or being prudent?

In my opinion, panicking.

Moving from 60/40 to 50/50 or 40/60 or even 30/70 would be prudent if it’s a one time move.
by finite_difference
Fri May 29, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Issues - No Oil
Replies: 63
Views: 4715

Re: Car Issues - No Oil

Did it run differently once he added oil and pulled it into driveway? If not, I'd do a quick oil change to get rid of any metal shavings from the previous run without oil. I once ran motor without oil for about a minute. No I'll effects. Maybe you got lucky too. +1. I’d get an oil change and try to...
by finite_difference
Tue May 26, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2667
Views: 214226

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I locked at 3% and a $2,600 lender credit with Keystone Funding on a 30 year loan. Only $400 for the 2.875% rate, but I like going with the lender credits and making it a no-cost refinance. I'm also around 80% LTV and they took my value estimate and got an appraisal waiver, so no PMI for me for the...
by finite_difference
Tue May 26, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate Movement
Replies: 76
Views: 5302

Re: TIAA Real Estate Movement

FWIW, I will be out of TIAA Real Estate this evening. What do you think about moving from TREA to 50/50 S&P 500 and TIAA Traditional (illiquid)? Might sell 90% and keep 10% in TREA in case it closes to new investors? I'm agnostic about that move. I think you are adding more risk though. I've always...
by finite_difference
Mon May 25, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pandemic buys that have improved quality of life?
Replies: 148
Views: 14452

Re: Pandemic buys that have improved quality of life?

Kids: Good swing set.

Adults: Outdoor ping pong table.
by finite_difference
Sun May 24, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate Movement
Replies: 76
Views: 5302

Re: TIAA Real Estate Movement

FWIW, I will be out of TIAA Real Estate this evening. My plans have access to the TIAA Traditional Annuity paying 3%, but that TA has the restriction that withdrawals must use a Transfer Payout Annuity (TPA) of 9 years and a day. I also have a closed plan that has no restrictions on withdrawals tha...
by finite_difference
Sun May 24, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Tires or New Car?
Replies: 67
Views: 4512

Re: New Tires or New Car?

I think what I will likely do is replace all the tires with a low to mid-range priced tire set with the intention of only keeping the car maybe another 2 or 3 years... Don’t go cheap on tires. Don’t need to go crazy either, but it’s the most important component of your vehicle, so buy a quality set.
by finite_difference
Sun May 24, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Tires or New Car?
Replies: 67
Views: 4512

Re: New Tires or New Car?

I would just replace them all for $1k. Tires are probably the most important aspect of your vehicle, followed by the driver and then vehicle itself.
by finite_difference
Sun May 24, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2879

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?

Sorry Justin, but Covid is not a once in lifetime event (the reaction was) and covid didn't destroy any businesses, the irrational reaction to it did that. I went to a Seafood Buffet on the SC Coast yesterday and it was PACKED. Jam packed. Everything will go back to normal. What will not survive ar...
by finite_difference
Sun May 24, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2879

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?

So far this month: Neiman Marcus, J. Crew, J.C. Penny, Hertz.

Companies that have been stumbling are being knocked off.
by finite_difference
Fri May 22, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Needed regarding debt - Update - see below
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Advice Needed regarding debt

I think it’s really tough if you’re earning $31k/yr. Can you help her get on a career path? (If she’s just starting out then that salary may make sense at the beginning of a career path.)
by finite_difference
Fri May 22, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9215

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

All of the China-hating on Bogleheads makes me happy, in a way. It keeps the risk premium, and expected returns, Hugh for the rest of us. You've used varying hypothetical illustrations of vehicles that could have been used to invest in China. What actual funds or CEFs or ETFs do you use for your pe...
by finite_difference
Thu May 21, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6212

Re: I freaked out…now what?

You forgot the cardinal rule. Stay the course.

50/50 AA is pretty optimal. What were you afraid of, a 50% crash? You’d still have 75% of your portfolio. Or maybe you haven’t saved enough?
by finite_difference
Thu May 21, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 20258

Re: Hawaii Inter Island Resort Golf

Playing all the different resort golf courses over the Hawaiian Islands. Resorts can be lavish. Service and accomodations outstanding. Course conditions, PGA Tour quality. Prices: "Kamaina Rates" with resort and green fees, etc, helps a lot. Lost balls: too many. Memories: Priceless Most Hawaii mou...
by finite_difference
Wed May 20, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 2667
Views: 214226

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

The quotes I'm getting in TX are between 3 and 3.5% for a 30 year fixed -- depending on points, credits, etc. Am I Crazy for being OK sticking with my 3.65% rate and focusing on paying it off early? All these other options either add thousands to the principle or just complicate things for saving $...
by finite_difference
Wed May 20, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 20258

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

It would definitely be buying and restoring antiques. I do everything the archival way, the way museum conservators would approach it, so it gets expensive. One of my ex-boyfriend's partner works at Christie's, and he's joked that I should go work for them instead. My most recent work was cleaning ...