Search found 837 matches

by zotty
Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Volatility is a portfolio killer; it takes a 100% return to make up for a 50% portfolio loss. Yeah. Portfolio killers are losses from which I cannot recover. Volatility which is lower than this is noise, above it, pain. but how much control do I have? my risk level, for sure...but how much portfoli...
by zotty
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Slick8503 wrote:proven


nothing has been proven. It's all theory that may falsify in the future or may hold true.
by zotty
Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

A non-tilted portfolio never performs optimally but it does manage to pick a more comfortable middle ground, with both growth and value, large and small, which presumably offers a smoother ride through market cycles when one segment after another outperforms or underperforms. i completely agree wit...
by zotty
Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Are even business cycles independent? definitely not, but it should be less than annual, quarterly, intraday, etc. business cycle bookends have an inflectional characteristic to them. A marker that something significant changed about the market and economy. data points in the middle of a cycle have...
by zotty
Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

1. The excess returns in the past were a statistical fluke I'll explain what i mean by fluke. if past performance is used to predict future returns, this is an example of a predictive model. In most non-trivial domains, building a predictive model is tough work. the sample set is critical if I want...
by zotty
Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Joking?

The alternative is to be smart and listen to sales people pitch one market beating, risk mitigating, strategy after another: don't give up on the opportunity to beat the market, or to be safer than the market, using security selection. The proof is in the backtest. Zotty: I hope that you are joking...
by zotty
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

A non-tilted portfolio never performs optimally but it does manage to pick a more comfortable middle ground, with both growth and value, large and small, which presumably offers a smoother ride through market cycles when one segment after another outperforms or underperforms. i completely agree wit...
by zotty
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

IMHO it is an extreme opinion to believe that all were flukes. Maybe. There are periods of time where certain risks are rewarded and periods of time when they are not. If the future looks like the past, those same risks will likely be rewarded. If it's different, maybe not. There are many investmen...
by zotty
Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

IMHO it is an extreme opinion to believe that all were flukes. Maybe. There are periods of time where certain risks are rewarded and periods of time when they are not. If the future looks like the past, those same risks will likely be rewarded. If it's different, maybe not. There are many investmen...
by zotty
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

11 return anomalies that are violations of the Fama-French three-factor (market beta, size and value) model: 1. Net Stock Issues: Net stock issuance and stock returns are negatively correlated. It’s been shown that smart managers issue shares when sentiment-driven traders push prices to overvalued ...
by zotty
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8853

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

danieljquirk wrote:I imagine many investors did not become fans of small value tilting until about 2003.


smart people use mathematics to justify performance chasing. The future is unknown and the past doesn't provide meaningful clues.
by zotty
Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 10967

Re: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction

Wait for it. It is close for some things, but not for most things. I'll throw you a bone: VTI would have to be down about 2.9% for VTI to be having an RBD today. RBW. I just saw an article about this being the "worst week" Maybe we should do a RBD5 - cyclically adjusted RBDs. :) Then agai...
by zotty
Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what to do about estimated taxes if 4th quarter income is high
Replies: 10
Views: 1060

Re: what to do about estimated taxes if 4th quarter income is high

You are incorrectly applying the concept of four equal installments. The answer to your question is to send the correct amount with your next estimated payment. agreed. make a good faith estimate of your tax liability and write a check. I've been paying uneven ES for years. income is uneven. no pro...
by zotty
Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 189
Views: 13914

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Two and Twenty Squeeze Fund

long:
VGT
short:
ASHR
by zotty
Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1/2/16 Deal - H&R Block 2015 @ Amazon
Replies: 30
Views: 2568

Re: 1/2/16 Deal - H&R Block 2015 @ Amazon

I am going to go without a tax product and try PDF electronic fill-in-forms this year since I have to handhold Form 1116 data entry with any tax product anyway. That's got to be worthy of another thread. No matter what i do, i can't deduct foreign taxes (from Total International, for example) using...
by zotty
Sat Jan 02, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1/2/16 Deal - H&R Block 2015 @ Amazon
Replies: 30
Views: 2568

Re: 1/2/16 Deal - H&R Block 2015 @ Amazon

Amazon has H&R Block 2015 tax software as the deal of the day. The above link was navigated via the bogleheads sidebar (look in the left margin). I hope it still carries attribution (and the incentive) back to bogleheads.org. Thank you. I"ve used H&R Block for years. I just got home + ...
by zotty
Fri Jan 01, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 500
Views: 114933

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Any update on the change in strategy? Only the update on the change in his blogging strategy: he apparently deleted his blog post on the strategy. If you look at his blog, there are plenty of entries before and after that one. That particular one is gone. Have you ever seen anyone post a strategy l...
by zotty
Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy Corporate Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 2587

Re: Why buy Corporate Bonds?

incrementally better yields. I use TBM. It has some corporates and held up very well during the financial panic of 2008-9. That's good enough for me. I wouldn't argue with a strategy that holds treasuries exclusively. there will be times they outperform Investment grade, and times that they underper...
by zotty
Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Taylor vs Martin Guitar
Replies: 19
Views: 2505

Re: Taylor vs Martin Guitar

Opinions: Martins have a richer sound but are harder to play. Tougher action. I have a martin and it's a lovely sound, but i also need a couple of beaters that i noodle on when i don't want the punishment, or simply can't play it on the martin. It also depends on style. If you want to bluegrass, you...
by zotty
Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need new EIN?
Replies: 7
Views: 830

Re: Do I need new EIN?

Just get another one. it takes about 5 minutes. why not?
by zotty
Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at High Yield Bonds in a Portfolio
Replies: 69
Views: 4831

Re: Another look at High Yield Bonds in a Portfolio

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-10?nopaging=1 A reminder of the issues of liquidity and how adding high yield to a portfolio impacts the risk and return of a portfolio Hope you find it helpful Larry Thanks for the reminder and the long standing advice. I listened as well. ...
by zotty
Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with windfall? Version: #8229
Replies: 19
Views: 1651

Re: What would you do with windfall? Version: #8229

Hopefully, i'll be joining you soon. <fingers crossed> if fortune shines on us, I'm lowering my AA because my need to take risks will be greatly diminished. I'm 60/40 now. I'll go 50/50. I would also invest your large emergency fund, unless you've got your eye on a near term use (or it's parked in C...
by zotty
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy
Replies: 65
Views: 5036

Re: Reversion to Mean vs Gambler's Fallacy

spectacular observation. The notion that there is a mean, at all, can easily be recast as a gamblers fallacy. Not all is lost, though, as you know... For stocks, we are buying a property/asset with future prospects. There is a fuzzy mean, a fuzzy average, for which investors have historically been w...
by zotty
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some articles by Asness et al.
Replies: 11
Views: 806

Re: Some articles by Asness et al.

Am i the only one who feels like this is just another example of performance chasing? I clearly remember reading pages and pages of debates about the desirability of investing directly in commodity futures. backtested, theoretically sound, terrible investment idea. smart people sold on a terrible id...
by zotty
Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some articles by Asness et al.
Replies: 11
Views: 806

Re: Some articles by Asness et al.

backtested flavor of the month for market beating returns. that's very cynical, but there is always some new product/approach being sold to investors. It's the real thing, unlike commodity tilts, gold tilts, small value tilts. The new new thing for market beating returns is _____. Maybe so. probably...
by zotty
Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO is now 42% China?
Replies: 13
Views: 2457

Re: VWO is now 42% China?

ogrehead wrote:Retail foreign investors can't buy A-shares. If I'm wrong, please tell me where they can, I will be shocked.


Ticker: ASHR
by zotty
Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25
Replies: 39
Views: 2437

Re: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25

The less you pay for future earnings, the higher your return will be. Makes sense to me. We only have a very limited data set. We only have about a dozen independent ten year periods of past returns that may reasonably be relevant, perhaps fewer (are markets from 1900, with different laws, structur...
by zotty
Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25
Replies: 39
Views: 2437

Re: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25

Higher valuations reliably predict lower future returns. Put P/E ratios into deciles, quartiles, etc I'm not saying these aren't decent heuristics, but "reliably predict" is pushing the language. The sample size matters. If i were to pick anything, it would be PE1 or some other measuremen...
by zotty
Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25
Replies: 39
Views: 2437

Re: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25

My other pet peeve is the use of multiple indicators. PE1, Price To Book, Price To Sales, etc. I find this almost more humorous. It takes about 3 seconds for someone with a background in statistics to drive a truck through these ideas. Independence assumptions. If your variables are correlated, each...
by zotty
Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25
Replies: 39
Views: 2437

Re: Questions about CAPE 10 being above 25

(1) How is there possibly enough data points to draw any meaningful conclusions at all? there aren't enough data points. It's psuedo-science and complete hocus pocus. the beloved timing indicator which has no legs. I can't understand why ANYONE with a statistics background would claim otherwise wit...
by zotty
Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S & P 500 "fair value" (as of 3-04-16 )
Replies: 168
Views: 17412

Re: S & P 500 "fair value" (as of 12-18-15 )

Since 1919, the monthly average yield on Moody's Baa bond is 7.00%. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAA# Since 1919, the monthly average earnings yield on the S & P 500 is 7.29%. http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-yield For 95 years, stock investors have enjoyed an average earn...
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Energy stocks - why not?
Replies: 158
Views: 12700

Re: Large Energy stocks - why not?

It's always darkest before the dawn. A true investor will put their money where there mouth is, everyone else will sit around the table and speculate; we're awash in oil, there are X number of super-tankers sitting offshore brimming with oil (now that they are filled up with oil, the oil that gets ...
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]
Replies: 130
Views: 10613

Re: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]

I do have a sense that funds are making promises they can't keep. A lot of funds. . it's hard to see how that can possibly work at all times. markets can and do literally dry up. Any market. For these kinds of really scary situations, or mundane ones (like currently), I'm fine with suspending redem...
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Energy stocks - why not?
Replies: 158
Views: 12700

Re: Large Energy stocks - why not?

Will Rogers wrote:Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]
Replies: 130
Views: 10613

Re: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]

Yeah, my uninformed opinion is that it looks like the SEC was too loose with this particular fund, and should have said "you can't do that, these securities aren't liquid enough for a mutual fund." It's pretty clear that the IMF and the SEC are aware of issues with bond liquidity, and the...
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perfect storm for investors
Replies: 90
Views: 13178

Re: A perfect storm for investors

holdings are SVG Capital, Electra Private Equity and Marlborough UK Micro-cap Growth ... So anyone's welcome to quote this when they all crash 90% I won't, but I appreciate that attitude. It's a recognition of the reality that we don't have very much control over outcomes. Patience is supreme, but ...
by zotty
Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]
Replies: 130
Views: 10613

Re: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]

This bothers me. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/third-avenue-sought-internal-loan-approval-before-fund-collapsed Third Avenue’s request, disclosed in an Oct. 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, would allow its mutual funds to temporarily borrow money from ...
by zotty
Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 13360

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

How are you defining a "flat market"? And over what time period? I am just speculating. can't know what other people are thinking... I think it takes practice to think in terms longer than 1 year. When you have a raging good run for 4 years, you build in expectations (or fight the same) t...
by zotty
Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 13360

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

How are you defining a "flat market"? And over what time period? I am just speculating. can't know what other people are thinking... I think it takes practice to think in terms longer than 1 year. When you have a raging good run for 4 years, you build in expectations (or fight the same) t...
by zotty
Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 13360

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

A general statement. It sure seems like folks are getting itchy to spend savings lately. No just OP. cars, can i afford expensive XYZ. I remember feeling this way in july 2008. At that point, it felt like a decade of flat returns in S&P 500 (that's where i was invested, mainly). I was to the poi...
by zotty
Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]
Replies: 130
Views: 10613

Re: [Third Avenue liquidates its high-yield bond fund]

This bothers me. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/third-avenue-sought-internal-loan-approval-before-fund-collapsed Third Avenue’s request, disclosed in an Oct. 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, would allow its mutual funds to temporarily borrow money from o...
by zotty
Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check-In on Emerging Market Sentiment
Replies: 57
Views: 6001

Re: Check-In on Emerging Market Sentiment

I generally try to overweight what's cheap, and limit downside when markets are seemingly presenting more risk than opportunity ... This month is one of these times I'm reducing equity exposure and moving into more market neutral investments ... I normally hold Emerging Markets on a 15+ year view, ...
by zotty
Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check-In on Emerging Market Sentiment
Replies: 57
Views: 6001

Re: Check-In on Emerging Market Sentiment

Hmm ... Tempting http://i.imgur.com/J1uumPE.png Sure. sell at low 60, 300 day MA, ____ (insert any other stop loss strategy you can name) performs extremely well in a crisis sell off. The reason it's not tempting is because it generates lots of false positives. How about from 2009 until now? not so...
by zotty
Wed Dec 09, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 22728

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

I have a 40 year investment window, and I find it hard to believe oil won't spike at some point during that span. Certainly, it will, but the question for an investor isn't whether a not a particular dog will have it's day. it's whether such an investment will outperform other choices to the extent...
by zotty
Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 22728

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

abuss368 wrote:I am curious how many Bogleheads may have invested in the Vanguard Energy Fund over the last couple of months.


Not me. I've loaded up on EM. :oops:
by zotty
Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 22728

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

deleted: duplicate
by zotty
Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 22728

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Yes, I'm as crazy as I was in March 2009, buying when everyone else was selling.


Those diversified investments in 2009 have definitely been winners. Maybe idiosyncratic selloffs are the same thing. It doesn't feel like the same thing to me.
by zotty
Tue Dec 08, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 168
Views: 22728

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

you guys know the risks. I wouldn't touch oil stocks, now or ever. It's like playing currencies. you are really at the mercy of policy makers as much as any other force. If the saudis want to flood the market for a decade, they'll do it. They've done it before. just because something has gone down a...
by zotty
Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 16 y/o daughter with gifted 4K
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Re: 16 y/o daughter with gifted 4K

Thank you for exploring the situation in such detail. I really appreciate it. What are your plans to pay for her college? You have plenty of money/family money to send her anywhere, and she doesn't have to earn a cent until she graduates? Or you can afford to pay most of a state school, but she will...

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